[BASIC/STANDARD] Warcraft: War of the Ancients Mafia - GAME OVER, MAFIA WINS

[wish-tree]

Thoughts and stuff? 

 

I have to leave to start preparing for EOD for my own game, which is in a few hours.

 

Let me know what you guys come up with.

[Nolder]

Well first of all let's start at the beginning because if you don't have a good foundation the whole thing falls apart anyway.

This is all based on the assumption that Csarmi and Xander are wolves together.

I'm not necessarily opposed to that idea since I don't have Xander in my town pile yet and a couple people were saying he's off his town meta but I'd still like to see you make the case for Xander and Csarmi being connected before I take the rest of that too seriously. 

 

If I can't buy that Xander/Csarmi are w/w the rest of it doesn't matter you know?

[Songstress]

@Mods: can I edit the spoiler formatting?

Permission was granted by Skype earlier, for the record.

[Lenlo]

 

 

4. Lenlo

 

 

 

Csarmi (7) Cass Wish Kaylee Alanna Lenlo Zander Pizza

 

*note: I changed Kaylee to a light green to reflect doubt

Links to other analyses: Cass, Wish, Kaylee, Alanna

 

Lenlo on Csarmi:

First mention is in a reads list "Grey/light red, do something. Might vote you for the heck of it."

 

Reaction to his claim "Why... Why are we claiming."

 

More doubts on the claim "Full claim or dont claim at all. Character claims mean nothing."

 

This one is in response to Wish saying Csarmi is getting lynched: "Is he now? And when was this decided?" The reaction here is kind of weird. At this point Cass and Pizza are on the Csarmi train (I think I have that right) and Wish is going back and looking at Kaylee evidence while Pizza is switching things over to Csarmi pretty quickly.

 

Doesn't think Csarmi is lying about his character, and if he is "there's no way he lives through the game. I don't think he's lying"

 

I find it odd that Lenlo neither mentions nor jumps on the Kaylee case, nor the Csarmi case. He does mediate a little with the Pizza/Zander fight but that's all I see so far. He questions why Cass isn't around.

 

Then this: 

"Pizza/Zander fight is stupid. Honestly, the only people who I /want/ to lynch today are Celeste and the missing wonder brothers, Pral and Csarmi. Everyone else has been pretty good or I think will be figured out easier later.

Really ill lynch anyone that isnt Pizza, Zander, Nolder, Shad, Turin."

Throws shade at Zander for his habit of bussing teammates (that would be Pizza in this case). (Note: Zander/Pizza fight distraction?)

 

This: "For me its Csarmi/Zander today, leaning Csarmi." and a VOTE

 

He is quick to get in on the town core talk with Pizza Shad Nolder, still thinks Zander is town though.

 

Very much wants to lynch Celeste

 

But he is sticking around for the Csarmi lynch; wolves don't want to wait around for a flip of their teammate. And I don't see him trying to gain traction elsewhere. He didn't add flames to the Pizza/Zander fight.

 

Csarmi on Lenlo:

"Also Len/Laine are literally never w/w there."

"Think I'm at Shad and Cass as villagers, Pizza and Leno as possible villagers."

"Vanilla Town And yea Len we have been through this before. I shall humour you." (expanding on his claim)

"Dont lynch Shad, Cass and Len ever. I believe Turin."

"Cass i am totally sure of. Len/Shad very close."

"Leno I just love you man."

 

Anddd that's it

 

Conclusion: Pending.

I can see this both ways right now. And I already have a strong read so I'll explain the "Lenlo is mafia" side.

 

The first mention in his reads list could be he's frustrated with a teammate and has to suspect him because he's not being active enough on thread. The other posts about Csarmi claiming: frustration/confusion again.

 

Then the post where he said "Is he now? And when was this decided?" shows Lenlo is completely out of the loop. He hasn't paid attention to the Kaylee case, didn't get involved with Pizza's case on Csarmi, isn't involved in the thread with like under 20 hours until deadline. He doesn't know what's going on, basically.

 

In talks about Csarmi's character, he believes him and says that if he's lying, it'll be taken care of basically. Easy way to add support to a character claim and give it credit, even though we all know mafia are generally given fake claims. (I also know nothing about WoW so yeah.. I'm here to play mafia lol)

 

He still shows interest in voting Celeste, mentioning lynching her twice instead of Csarmi while his train is gaining traction, but doesn't make any move to switch the trains over (granted, this is more of a townie move, he's looking elsewhere).

 

On the other side of the road, Csarmi is quick to read Lenlo and call him town and tells us never to lynch him. This could be for a scum mate or for town.

 

If we're going with Lenlo being town though, this could make sense all the same. Lenlo would still be frustrated with Csarmi for not being in the game (Nolderesque?) and frustrated with the claim. You could read the "Is he now? And when was this decided?" as surprise becasue he's literally not caught up in the thread at the moment. He does NOT actively try to derail the lynch onto Celeste or Zander or Kaylee or anyone and ends up voting Csarmi. Looks good responding with a quick town core to Pizza's question and then sticking around to see the flip.

 

I could go either way with Lenlo right now, so I'm going to move him down to a light green.

 

 

 

Really interesting. Especially with interactions irt csarmi's claim. The reaction to not being caught up in thread as I mentioned yesterday was off-putting. 

The fluffing/buddying attention that he receives from csarmi is also similar to the Zander/csarmi interaction.

 

It's also pretty bad for him to not actively advocate for a different lynch, and in the end just sheeps Pizza (posted that Pizza should make the decision). He did not go after his strongest lynch candidates yesterday, but instead resolves onto a consensus vote with little reasons given.

 

So couple things.

 

1) Why is the bold bad? First id been pushing Celeste all day, second we lynched scum. Wouldnt it be bad for me to actively try and push a different lynch than the scum one we got?

2) I did go after my strongest lynch candidates yesterday. I was for Celeste literally the entire day. If Celeste started to get traction id have been there in a heartbeat.

3) Pretty sure I never said ""there's no way he lives through the game. I don't think he's lying" in regards to Csarmi. Said it about Turin, yeah, but not Csarmi.

[Zander?]

my computer is f'ed up and im running it in safe mode cause i know nothing about computers.

 

 

im not sure if this is gonna work or not or if i can quote.

 

 

but imma try

[Zander?]

Best part about Csarmi's ISO? It's only 4 pages.

 

Benefit of lynching Csarmi instead of Zander today? Zander's ISO is like 25 pages.

 

lolololololol

[Zander?]

It was at that exact moment that Zander realized... holy poop, pizza will outpost me and half the game thinks I'm scum.

 

Packing it in and packing it up

And sneaking away and buggering up

And chickening out and pissing about

Yes, bravely he is throwing in the sponge

 

 

Pizza you damn well know as either alignment Id never pack it in....like Yates peeked me N1 in Diablo and I still fought the good fight!!!!

[Askthepizzaguy]

I need more time, to those who should consider it.

[Kaylee]

Which I get Wish.

 

I'm also waiting to hear from Leno.

 

Can't look into Zander until later when I have more time to sit for awhile.

[Kaylee]

Leno: what are your thoughts on the case Alanna did on you?

[Askthepizzaguy]

Whatcha got for me tonight Zander?

[Zander?]

If csarmi really did ask to be bused, which is what Pral is saying, I think it would be Cass. She was on really early, perfect spot.

 

Hmmm

 

I'm not sure i want to go down that road yet though.

 

Where is Zander? He's not putting in any night work?

 

 

Legit my comps f'ed up and im running safe mode.  It took me all day frigging around with it till my buddy came and showed me this.  Like i can only see part of the screen and i need to scroll side to side to read a whole message.  i tried one mulitquote message and i failed.  Ill try it out and do my best

[Zander?]

Csarmi zander cass scum team?

 

Or csarmi zander Pral

 

Csarmi Turin Zander

 

Idk

 

Youre wrong about me.  Look back during ISO and read it carefully.

[Pralaya]

I am going to sleep now. If this crosses more than 20 pages by morning, I will ragequit.

[Zander?]

First things first:

 

Operating off assumptions that csarmi/Zander are wolves, and csarmi allowed himself to be bussed (or even asked for it) for town credit--

 

1. Cass

 

 

 

Csarmi (7) Cass Wish Kaylee Alanna Lenlo Zander Pizza

 

Starting With Cass. Her vote was way before Pizza's case and the shift to Csarmi. This is her post here. She explains what she sees of his meta. At this point Csarmi was receiving no heat and he was her strongest scum lean. She follows through after the Kaylee case and still keeps her vote on Csarmi stating she's okay with a lynch between the two of Pral or Csarmi, that link is here. Again supports her vote here with this after Wish's request of more explanation:

"I've only played with Town Csarmi. Strong impressions - he is interested and active in hunting scum. He challenges absolutely anybody and anything he finds remotely scummy/stupid, and he challenges them hard and he is not at all easy to please. Completely unlike here, imo."

I can still see Cass working in other areas and is worried about not having meta on Csarmi's scum game, but she cases him a little here too and here.

 

Csarmi on Cass: He town reads her quickly and doesn't budge.

"Cass is looking town. Sounds genuine and not even the least bit stressed"

"Manic Cass is townic Cass. Agree with her self-assessment, Pizza's approach, and just about ready to clear Cass there. Think I'm at Shad and Cass as villagers.... (snip) "

"Oh righ5 reads stuff. Dont lynch Shad, Cass and Len ever. I believe Turin. Second tier is Pray and Kaylee. "

"Cass i am totally sure of. Len/Shad very close."

 

Other than that he seems to be encouraging her to play and apologizes that he couldn't' talk to her in real time.

Conclusion: Cass probably town.

 

There is a definite attempt by csarmi to be csarming to those he town reads - Cass seems to be one in this example, Kaylee another. Compliments on play style, etc, etc. Compare how he interacts with Zander (mild trolling, compliments, attention). He ignores everyone else. 

The possibility that I think is most convincing to me is:

extreme distancing. Does csarmi hard bus? The beginning accusation of Cass not acting like her towny self is soon dropped, with little to no explanation. Suspicious.

 

I think in the yesterday's situation, csarmi and Zander would have wanted to be as dissassociated with any partner/partners (how many mafia would we have? 3-4?) they have. It would have been best to solidly town read any remaining mafia and put them higher in reads list to ensure that the remaining mafia survive. Not a good look to ignore or spend too much time on them.

 

It is more possible for Cass to be mafia, then, over Kaylee. 

 

 

 

 

2, Me/Penny

 

 

 

Csarmi (7) Cass Wish Kaylee Alanna Lenlo Zander Pizza

 

Wish:

Mentions Csarmi and Pral are back in thread. In her next reads list says Csarmi "pretty much null and all fluff"

Complains about the inactives, mentioning Csarmi, says out of Pral, CS, and Nolder that Nolder looks the best and Csarmi is in her list of lynch candidates with Pral, Lenlo, Nolder, Kaylee. Her next reads list has Csarmi at the bottom of the list. This is still before Pizza's case and switch which was on page 83. Mentions that she wants Csarmi to show up and play, he's still in her WTL. "I'd like to give Kaylee and Csarmi more time" This is after the Cass vote. She actually follows this up with voting Pral. Here she asks Cass for more information on Csarmi which Cass responded to, you can see it linked in Cass's Csarmi ISO. She does like that Csarmi is making an effort to catch up.

 

Here she starts digging into Kaylee and actually takes a swipe at him

 

There's a lot of mentions of Csarmi on this next page, but this is post Kaylee case and Wish is digging into Kaylee's games to see if Pizza's case has merit. I'll c/p some comments, but it's all there in her ISO, as well on page 7:

   "I'm less willing to lynch Kaylee still want a csarmi, Pralaya, Nolder lynch. Nolder is putting in more work than either Pralaya/csarmi, so take it in csarmi>Pralaya>Nolder order."

   "So you think he [csarmi] set her [kaylee] up? Read her as town and then proceeded to give you info to condemn her because of her change of meta?"

   "His claiming and then leaving is also not a good look."

   "Don't think the timing is weird. Shad did ask him to claim. And iirc, thread kinda pressured him to full-claim. Agree with Pizza's point on csarmi setting Kaylee up"

 

Anddd she just keeps pushing for his lynch so I'm not going to quote everything. Her vote here

 

UH, LAINEY

 

HELP

 

My dark green is fighting with another one of my light greens

 

I want to vote csarmi, but I'm really tempted to vote Zander because he has been tunneling me all game, even though I found his other behavior townie.

 

what are your thoughts?

This is 100% Lenny, there's no way she's mafia.

 

Link!!! She doesn't try to push onto Zander even with Pizza going at him on thread. This was a perfect opportunity and she didn't take it.

 

Csarmi on Wish:

".and yes. Penny. Lenny. Zanny."

"I cant tell Wish and Cel3ste apart."

 

And that's it. He responds to Wish asking about Csarmi setting Kaylee up but that was mainly in response to Pizza. No mentions of Wish's alignment whatsoever.

 

Conclusion: Wish is town. No doubts.

 

 

 

Really like Lainey's points. Just a few notes irt the csarmi/me/penny interactions:

 

csarmi doesn't even treat us as a separate slot. He mentions us in conjunction with Zander (Zanny), which in fact looks like an attempt to link Penny and myself to him and Zander. Along with Zander's narrative of me being Mafia and hard tunneling me, this looks to me that there is an attempt to link me to csarmi/Zander. Zander does like to hard bus as scum, that's true. But csarmi hopping on it as well? Unlikely. 

 

Especially when there was a lot of attention on both Celeste and myself and wagons there, csarmi just about ignores both of us with a passing comment, and focuses on greener pastures. Really strange. 

 

(also note the Lenny/Penny mixup, I can't tell them apart excuse to not read us.)

 

 

 

 

 

I read you town on approach and stress level Cass. I think you wolfing while Cory h3lping you would be hard. Not finding the right words sorry. You would wanna prove more and be somewhat froz3n? Is that the right wording?

I think this is Csarmi trying to shade cass. Looking into his post at the moment.

 

 

Early shading, the same as I noted. Nice, Lassie. Doing the work that makes others see you as town.

 

As a general rule I try to ignore anything a scum player has said once they know they're getting lynched.

 

You have to WIFOM it out, imo. (Also, I believe csarmi's Cass post was done earlier, before he knew he was getting lynched. Will go back and check)

 

 

Celeste, how do you feel about wish aorn?

I should be asleep now but one last post  

 

The way she analyzed and never actually stopped scum hunting while defending herself is very town like for Wish. I feel even better than before about my read on her.

 

 

Thanks for the vote of confidence :3

 

 

 

Csarmi (7) Cass Wish Kaylee Alanna Lenlo Zander Pizza

 

Kaylee on Csarmi:

Of note: Csarmi was the one feeding games to Pizza on her play-style.

 

Here a reads list "Csarmi- Null I have a real hard time reading him."

 

Here another mention after Pizza asks who she'd lynch:

"I'd like to bit honestly I'm not sure. I'd vote Csarmi then. I've given thoughts and reads. I just don't feel strongly enough about anyone to push a lynch. I won't just to save myself either. That wouldn't help town win. Unfortunately D1 is hard for me so I often struggle.

I'm following along and being aS active as I can. The only other I'm not sold on my list is Nolder. I'd like to not say as to why just yet as it depends on how he proceeds. "

Here she unvotes Turin after his claim says she'd vote him since she doesn't have much information on him.

 

Lists him in the current WTL and again and again and says he's a null POE who she'd vote and again (I've personally never wanted to lynch someone this badly whom I know nothing about and have no read on)

 

She asks Cass why she's voting Csarmi

"I can't remember what you've said about him" even though Kaylee has voiced intention of wanting to vote him and she has nothing on him.

 

"Csarmi: why shoud we not lynch you today?"

 

Still in her POE (post Kaylee case)

Happy that someone is town reading her: Csarmi

 

Comments on Nolder's reads list that she's not sold on Csarmi being town

 

As of this post, she still has Csarmi in her null POE but likes that he's reading her correctly. I find it hard to believe that she still has no read on Csarmi.

 

"So lynch me or someone who wants to keep me around? That's what this sounds like. " LINK

 

Is swayed to vote Csarmi based on his town lean of her after Pizza explains what he means by Csarmi feeding information and how it's suspicious. Feels easy

 

Vote on Csarmi

 

End of day she makes sure to push for a lynch, which is a good look, especially seeing as the main train was Csarmi.

 

Csarmi on Kaylee:

Reads Kaylee villa very early

"Kaylee looks villagery."

"Pure town!Kaylee process..." LINK

 

And after Pizza's case, he just starts flooding the thread with why Kaylee is town and wants to discredit the case.

 

Conclusion: Kaylee spewed town. Either she's town and was awkward about reading him and he was 100% about her to the point that he did himself in, or they're mafia together and didn't discuss how she would read him in the QT, she pretended to be put off by him town reading her, and Csarmi sunk two team members by defending her. Unlikely.

 

 

Agreed with the Kaylee case. It's strange that csarmi strongly read Kaylee as town, even after Pizza made a case on her being out of her ordinary behavior. It is also strange that Zander did not have many thoughts on Kaylee before Pizza made his case about her, and that reminds me, I don't think we've heard Zander's thoughts on this csarmi/Kaylee interaction.

 

If they were all mafia together, this interaction would draw unnecessary attention to Kaylee and make it difficult for her to survive to a win. Zander not really digging into the Kaylee case is not a good look for Kaylee, but that makes me think even more that Kaylee is town.

 

About the only thing in this entire game that bugs me about Wish is her progression on Zander.  I dunno.

 

He was at the bottom of my light greens for scum reading me right off the bat. The explanation of his meta from Pizza really drove him down a few notches, plus the meta reads from you and others drove the nail into his coffin for me. Will pull up your posts and explain my thought progression, if you would like.

 

 

The cat gif that I posted makes me really uncomfortable. I want to catch the kitty.

Declawing a cat is pretty mean. It's like cutting off someone's fingers. :\

 

I agree... but relevant, how?

 

 

how does this in any way shape or form clear you guys?

[Zander?]

Whatcha got for me tonight Zander?

 

Ill see what I can come up with tonight but i will have something for all come tomorrow.  Cross my heart and hope to die.

[Zander?]

I am going to sleep now. If this crosses more than 20 pages by morning, I will ragequit.

 

Dont ragequit!!!  Only blame the heavy posters.....

[Lenlo]

Leno: what are your thoughts on the case Alanna did on you?

It's alright, but it has holes and I'm pretty sure she's attributing the wrong posts to the wrong people/topics.

[Zander?]

Len who are Csarmi's scummates?

[Zander?]

Pizza please help me out cause going back and quoting stuff is a pain.  Why did you back off of Kay again?  Was it only because the general Town consensus was Town reading her?

[Kaylee]

 

Leno: what are your thoughts on the case Alanna did on you?

It's alright, but it has holes and I'm pretty sure she's attributing the wrong posts to the wrong people/topics.

If she is show where please. This goes towards helping clear you.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Pizza please help me out cause going back and quoting stuff is a pain.  Why did you back off of Kay again?  Was it only because the general Town consensus was Town reading her?

 

In a world where Kaylee was guilty, the case I plopped down on her was devastating. Some people disagreed with it, but the in-thread evidence was damning and the two cited example games of hers which were villager just added to the case, and her own words in the thread were really self-incriminating.

 

So if she's a wolf, it's time to bus, or pretend you didn't see the case.

 

Defending her, or actively opposing her lynch, or pushing other people hard, it's difficult for the wolves to ignore such a case made on one of their own.

 

If a bunch of villagers jump on that lynch and the wolves don't do so, then they are out in the cold. When it's clear that Kaylee is not going to be the deep wolf, the decision has to be made to defend, bus, or ignore.

 

IMO, if she were guilty, at the very, very least, the wolves would have said the case was compelling.

 

But some people who were not in my blue or green were dismissing it. Csarmi in particular without ever considering it. (a) before I made the case, (b) while giving me links, and © afterward. He just justified it as "that's not how I read people."

 

That's ridiculously incriminating for Csarmi if Kaylee were guilty.

 

I made the decision at that point that as well researched and effort-put-into that case was, it was likely to be incorrect.

 

I also made the decision that if it were correct, the case itself would be enough to destroy her late-game.

 

I pushed her up in my process of elimination based on the reaction to the case, not because Kaylee exonerated herself personally.

 

She was NOT consensus town, in fact, some folks were considering the case.

 

But enough people were backing off that, it's kind of like someone trying to sneak away from the scene of a bombing that was about to happen. You kind of get the feeling that something bad is about to happen and they don't want to be anywhere near it, and they knew in advance that it was a good idea to be nowhere near the scene of the disaster.

 

That's the principle. It's actually basic human behavior, very simple to understand, but I doubt very many players use this kind of read to guide their voting.

 

I even said at one point, I wanted to lynch one of the people who said Kaylee was innocent. That was the first thought I had after I read the amalgam of responses to my case on her.

 

Of those people, Csarmi seemed the worst by far, because of his specific behavior.

 

And I made that decision rather rapidly and began pushing it then.

 

That's how it all went down.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Zander, why did you begin to push Csarmi?

[Lenlo]

 

 

Leno: what are your thoughts on the case Alanna did on you?

It's alright, but it has holes and I'm pretty sure she's attributing the wrong posts to the wrong people/topics.

If she is show where please. This goes towards helping clear you.

I already pointed out parts of it when responding to Wish. One of her points about saying I believed Csarmi's claim, I think she misattributed. I believe I said that to Turin/about Turins claim, not Csarmis.

[Zander?]

Zander, why did you begin to push Csarmi?

 

 

He was in my nulls.  And people started to suss him.  I wanted to take a look and see beforehand to see what I thought.  I fought with him for a vast part of SW thinking he was a Scumbag when in fact he was just annoying Town.  I couldnt read him well then and this game he seemed to be posting somewhat similar so I wasnt convinced till i looked back and ISO'd and seen what people were saying about him.