House of Cards

[Nynaeve]

I think it's actually a good thing for AJ to reassess the person he fake peeked, especially with later posts included.  The mafia need a certain number of townreads for plausibility, so it would have been pretty damn easy for AJ just to maintain cover and continue blue reading Verbal.  It could be that he was running out of people to convincingly push, but I think his thought progression in his bigger posts from this morning is easy enough to follow and doesn't have any terrible conclusions.

 

He stressed to people to take their time and pick a smart cover. He picked Verbal, which to me says that at EOD1 Verbal was his STRONGEST town read based on the happenings on D1. I ISO Verbal, lean on him and ask him questions. AJ offers to reread Verbal's posts and pretend like he has no peek on him, to show me why a player would be town reading Verbal.... which quite a few have throughout the game. Before Verbal addresses my concerns..... he posts saying how suddenly he does see stuff that pings him. He drops the seer cover, does a 180 on Verbal and puts him in his scum pile.

 

I'm not saying you can't change your mind about someone. I thought Lee was fine, then she weirded me out a bit, then she started looking better. I understand the concept of fluidity in reads but it just seems weird to me that the very same content that got him to choose Verbal as a seer cover in the first place made him, 1-2 days later, drop him to the bottom of his scum list. It's just weirding me out.

[Nynaeve]

The only thing that makes me second guess myself is the read list you pointed out. ie having both Wombat and Verbal in his scum pile. That would be pretty ballsy. 

[Nynaeve]

I'm feeling pretty confident that there's at least one scum in Verbal/AJ. If it's only one then I'm misclearing someone, which wouldn't surprise me. I typically do. No one's perfect.

[Clovdyx]

 

I think it's actually a good thing for AJ to reassess the person he fake peeked, especially with later posts included.  The mafia need a certain number of townreads for plausibility, so it would have been pretty damn easy for AJ just to maintain cover and continue blue reading Verbal.  It could be that he was running out of people to convincingly push, but I think his thought progression in his bigger posts from this morning is easy enough to follow and doesn't have any terrible conclusions.

 

He stressed to people to take their time and pick a smart cover. He picked Verbal, which to me says that at EOD1 Verbal was his STRONGEST town read based on the happenings on D1. I ISO Verbal, lean on him and ask him questions. AJ offers to reread Verbal's posts and pretend like he has no peek on him, to show me why a player would be town reading Verbal.... which quite a few have throughout the game. Before Verbal addresses my concerns..... he posts saying how suddenly he does see stuff that pings him. He drops the seer cover, does a 180 on Verbal and puts him in his scum pile.

 

I'm not saying you can't change your mind about someone. I thought Lee was fine, then she weirded me out a bit, then she started looking better. I understand the concept of fluidity in reads but it just seems weird to me that the very same content that got him to choose Verbal as a seer cover in the first place made him, 1-2 days later, drop him to the bottom of his scum list. It's just weirding me out.

 

 

Unless I'm missing something, the posts that AJ highlighted as bad came after AJ had already revealed Verbal to be his peek.  The ones he brought up prior to that (Verb's post at 10:49 and 11:48AM my time) were ones that that he said he liked, and he briefly explained the reasoning for liking them.  

 

You're absolutely right that he did point out some posts from Verb he thought was bad, but it would have been damn near impossible for him to bring these up while maintaining the cover.

[Clovdyx]

I'm feeling pretty confident that there's at least one scum in Verbal/AJ. If it's only one then I'm misclearing someone, which wouldn't surprise me. I typically do. No one's perfect.

 

True - I wore the wrong color shirt today.

[Nynaeve]

Unless I'm missing something, the posts that AJ highlighted as bad came after AJ had already revealed Verbal to be his peek.  The ones he brought up prior to that (Verb's post at 10:49 and 11:48AM my time) were ones that that he said he liked, and he briefly explained the reasoning for liking them.  

 

You're absolutely right that he did point out some posts from Verb he thought was bad, but it would have been damn near impossible for him to bring these up while maintaining the cover.

 

Wouldn't it have made a bit more sense for him to wait for Verbal to get back to me about my questions, though?

[Nynaeve]

I didn't look that closely at time stamps... I just don't know.

[Nynaeve]

I guess what I'm missing here is the transition from his top town read to a scum read. He didn't engage Verbal about his concerns. He didn't wait for Verb to address what I pointed out and asked. It was like a very abrupt 180 for me. Lunno.

[Leelou]

[unvote]

 

[v]AJ[/v]

[Andrej]

I'm town.

 

Nyn you are making a lot of assumptions on your own to color your read. I never said Verb was my top town read. I pointed out why I thought he could be reasonably townish before making him my peek and keep it from seeming too obviously fake. For instance I think I had picked you it would be sort of obvious. I thought Verb looked townish enough so picking him ~randomly felt more natural. Once I put him as my peek I admittedly sidelined him just because I wanted to appear genuine in "knowing" he was a villager.

 

Literally the only reason I dropped cover is because I felt I could be wrong after reevaluation from your ISO and my other town reads becoming more firm. I felt it better I come clean than pretend at that point.

 

I am at training but will be off hopefully in the next 2 hours and won't miss DL which I believe is tonight? Either way, I'll be back in a while.

[Cory Caboose]

[v]Wombat[/v]

[Andrej]

VC?

[Andrej]

I guess what I'm missing here is the transition from his top town read to a scum read. He didn't engage Verbal about his concerns. He didn't wait for Verb to address what I pointed out and asked. It was like a very abrupt 180 for me. Lunno.

Do I need to wait for a response to make my own decision? You asked me to review his posts and I did. My opinion is that he looks kinda scummy. His Sooh/Cass linking, the possible distancing from Wombat, etc. I showed you the timing of his posts leading up to my decision to peek him and then posts afterwards that I liked or disliked afterwards once I dropped cover and looked at Verb without "assuming" he was town. I see now that you say you took it as my choosing him as my peek meant I had him as my strongest town reads. That wasn't exactly the case, but yes when I did peek him I was thinking he could be town and that we were seeing similar things ITT

[Andrej]

Only knock on AJ for me is how he almost seems to be looking for reasons to bump his mafia candidates up, despite having a handful of people he's considering completely clear as of #1449.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nyn

Clov

Cory

Kaylee

Tress

Leelou

 

Dice

Cass

Verbal

Wombat

 

This is pretty much where I'm at. My bottom 4 is still muddled and connected in weird slimy ways that I need to bright light to to figure out. A wolf flip any of those four would more or less confirm a lot of other reads for me. If I'm wrong on anyone it might be Cass and maybe Verb. I think Dice could be a villager here but I want to see more before I make him green. Still pretty confident that Wombat isn't a villager in any situation though - I just simply don't feel it. If he's a villager then this game only gets harder for me.

 

Out of my town pile I have Nyn as blue for her entire game. If she's a wolf then my hat is off to her but she is safely out off my radar for a long while. Clov is next because of his spoiler post. I don't want to get angle shooty but I doubt that was fake and I have had him as a town read for some time already. I'm just going to accept Cory as a villager at this point. Kaylee seems townie to me and I don't have reason to doubt her yet. Tress is SHC and I don't see her falling under fancy play syndrome so I'm content to let her ride. I still would like more though - her input if town will be valuable. Leelou is playing on her town game from what I can see and other reasons. My tinfoil side pings because I feel like this stack might be too large for the current phase and consensus reads tend to make me nervous, but unless most of my bottom four flip villager I am okay with this progression.

 

 

That's just me being paranoid tbh. I get nervous when it seems the thread is approaching consensus type reads and considering I only have four solid scum suspects with 11 alive it makes me worried that I'm misclearing someone somewhere.

[Andrej]

Break over. Should be done and home soon - is DL actually tonight? I can't remember.

[Clovdyx]

Deadline is tomorrow morning.

[Songstress]

Sorry, I miscalculated time zones - we just landed and need to get our luggage. I should be home in an hour or less.

[Nynaeve]

 

I guess what I'm missing here is the transition from his top town read to a scum read. He didn't engage Verbal about his concerns. He didn't wait for Verb to address what I pointed out and asked. It was like a very abrupt 180 for me. Lunno.

Do I need to wait for a response to make my own decision? You asked me to review his posts and I did. My opinion is that he looks kinda scummy. His Sooh/Cass linking, the possible distancing from Wombat, etc. I showed you the timing of his posts leading up to my decision to peek him and then posts afterwards that I liked or disliked afterwards once I dropped cover and looked at Verb without "assuming" he was town. I see now that you say you took it as my choosing him as my peek meant I had him as my strongest town reads. That wasn't exactly the case, but yes when I did peek him I was thinking he could be town and that we were seeing similar things ITT

 

 

Okay. I understand it better now. In regards to waiting for a response from him, I thought it would be warranted to make a read shift, ie to see if maybe he had a valid explanation to the connection. He didn't imo, but it bothered me a bit that you didn't wait to hear it first before dropping the seer cover.

[Nynaeve]

@mod I think you would really benefit from a co-mod to do VCs when you're not around. It's really hard to ISO chronologically and keep track of who's voting who with so few VCs. Just my two cents.

[Andrej]

Okay. I understand it better now. In regards to waiting for a response from him, I thought it would be warranted to make a read shift, ie to see if maybe he had a valid explanation to the connection. He didn't imo, but it bothered me a bit that you didn't wait to hear it first before dropping the seer cover.

 

Yeah, I guess that's valid too. The situation was that you had already asked me twice to answer and I hadn't really been reading much of Verb - or at least not with a close eye - until after you posted your ISO and asked me my opinion. At that point after doing my own research I felt like I couldn't answer you objectively without dropping cover completely. I mean - there's only 3 potential roles this game and if Verb is a wolf then he knows I'm not the seer already so I felt I might as well come clean instead of continuing to falsely defend or vouch a player who I know thought could be scummy.

 

Idk - maybe I mishandled the situation (we can talk about this post game) because even now I'm not 100% on Verb being scum, but even if I'm ~85-90% correct on my town reads there's still a good chance he is just via POE.

[Andrej]

now thought*

[Andrej]

Deadline is tomorrow morning.

 

Thanks, I saw it now that I can get on my laptop.

 

Vote Count 2.2

 

Wombat: Andrej, Kaylee, Bewbs McGee, cory caboose, Clovdyx

Cass: Verbal32

cory caboose: WWWwombat

Andrej: Leelou

With 11 alive it takes 6 to lynch.

 

Deadline in just over 24 hours from this post:

 

I think this VC should be accurate with where we are. I've got plans with the missus tonight so I probably won't be around a ton and I very much doubt I'll be awake at 6am.

 

It says 6 to lynch? I was under the impression there weren't hammers this game - or was that just D1? If that's the case then Wombat is at L-1 and seems to have decided to accept his lynch one way or the other. Not sure what that means regarding his alignment but I am praying he's just bluffing and flips wolf here.

[Andrej]

DADV?

 

I kinda hate the quiet right now.

[Verbal32]

[unvote]

[Verbal32]

Hi AJ