[Standard] 11/10 Top Tier Vanilla+ Game Thread

[DPR]

  On 11/16/2014 at 3:40 PM, csarmi said:

No such thing as being townspewec until the sk flips. For instance, Arsis/Pray may just be anti town but not mafia and that would fit Nyn's picture.

 

Tl;dr - lynch scummy people and lynch people who got s umspewed but careful with the townspew stuff.

 

Because "the anti-town but not mafia" people.

 

WTF?

[Hallia]

Please bear with me, we got back from the Disney only to find our internet down v.v'  Hubby got it going, but it's a lot of catch up

[Nynaeve]

  On 11/16/2014 at 3:45 PM, csarmi said:

Nyn looks hot.

 

>.>

[csarmi]

  On 11/16/2014 at 3:50 PM, DreadPirateRoberts said:

 

  On 11/16/2014 at 3:40 PM, csarmi said:

No such thing as being townspewec until the sk flips. For instance, Arsis/Pray may just be anti town but not mafia and that would fit Nyn's picture.

 

Tl;dr - lynch scummy people and lynch people who got s umspewed but careful with the townspew stuff.

 

Because "the anti-town but not mafia" people.

 

WTF?

 

Not sure I understand your quetsion but I was typing from phone and it might be incomprhensible.

 

Because there is a player who is anti-town, but not mafia, we need to be more careful with mafia members "townspewing" people (but if the mafiaspew people, that's great).

 

Makes sense?

[csarmi]

  On 11/16/2014 at 3:53 PM, Hallia said:

Please bear with me, we got back from the Disney only to find our internet down v.v'  Hubby got it going, but it's a lot of catch up

Oh I don't suppose it's more than 200 pages in your two games combined.

 

How you feeling Hally:wub:?

[DPR]

  On 11/16/2014 at 4:08 PM, csarmi said:

 

  On 11/16/2014 at 3:50 PM, DreadPirateRoberts said:

 

  On 11/16/2014 at 3:40 PM, csarmi said:

No such thing as being townspewec until the sk flips. For instance, Arsis/Pray may just be anti town but not mafia and that would fit Nyn's picture.

 

Tl;dr - lynch scummy people and lynch people who got s umspewed but careful with the townspew stuff.

 

Because "the anti-town but not mafia" people.

 

WTF?

 

Not sure I understand your quetsion but I was typing from phone and it might be incomprhensible.

 

Because there is a player who is anti-town, but not mafia, we need to be more careful with mafia members "townspewing" people (but if the mafiaspew people, that's great).

 

Makes sense?

 

 

This method of suggestion is cause for concern, especially in light of the fact that you have been the more level-headed half of your hydra. 

 

Over the past 24 hours you have both now made wobbly posts with no apparent reason for doing so. 

 

Please explain why you felt it necessary to make the original post I quoted above.

[csarmi]

DPR, I seriously have a hard time comprehending what you're trying to say, what you're trying to imply and what you're trying to ask.

[csarmi]

As for why post stuff - when something comes to my mind, I post it. That's how I work.

[csarmi]

For background you need zo know that I'm at page 15 on my reread and thursday/friday is completely missing for me.

 

When I see something fresh that catches my eye (got mail notifictaions), I comment on it live.

[Kivam]

  On 11/14/2014 at 6:16 PM, Pralaya said:

 

  On 11/14/2014 at 3:14 PM, Nynaeve said:

 

  On 11/14/2014 at 3:06 PM, WWWwombat said:

 

  On 11/14/2014 at 3:04 PM, Thane Vakarian said:

excsue me for not agreeing with you on Pral there Wombat.... 

 

Looked to me like Yates was pretty earnestly trying to get Pral killed.  Unlikely to be a bus move imo.  Yates was clearly trying to "deep wolf" but I don't see him saccing a scum PR on D1 for no other reason.

 

 

Really? Because to me it seemed like he threw in the 'still up for a Pral lynch' to look squeaky clean when Sili flipped town. I mean, he did try to stop it.... but oh no...it was too late... no one listened. 

 

Not to mention that his vote was on Pral as he was saying it. It was a redundant comment to make that he was still up for his lynch and it feels like it was made to make him look good later on when Sili flipped town. Especially considering he said it 5 MINUTES BEFORE THE DEADLINE. PFFT.

 

Now, your argument has changed from Yates wanted to bus, Yates is unpredictable to "Nah, he was just trying to distance"? 

 

Yates has been going against Arsis/me throughout D1. Pushing, nudging all through the day till minutes before the deadline.

 

He tried to nudge a lynch against me 3 hours before deadline

He did the same 10 minutes before deadline. Des actually changed his vote because of that. All he needed was 1-2 more, especially Sili was on during the time and town telling.

 

If you are town, you are tinfoiling this so hard that it is not even making any sense. 

 

 

You're much better at this than Arsis was, btw

 

[Kivam]

  On 11/14/2014 at 6:25 PM, Nynaeve said:

 

  On 11/14/2014 at 6:16 PM, Pralaya said:

Now, your argument has changed from Yates wanted to bus, Yates is unpredictable to "Nah, he was just trying to distance"? 

 

Yates has been going against Arsis/me throughout D1. Pushing, nudging all through the day till minutes before the deadline.

 

He tried to nudge a lynch against me 3 hours before deadline

He did the same 10 minutes before deadline. Des actually changed his vote because of that. All he needed was 1-2 more, especially Sili was on during the time and town telling.

 

If you are town, you are tinfoiling this so hard that it is not even making any sense. 

 

 

Your competing train was a now confirmed townie. How does that add up to your little story?  So you're saying Yates was trying with all his might to mislynch you.... even though your competing train was a mislynch too? lol   Sure.

 

 

If Yates was any good at all, this logic is exactly why.  (No, he wouldn't have expected to be shot N1, but all scum plan to lay traps for when they die).

[Kivam]

  On 11/14/2014 at 6:25 PM, DreadPirateRoberts said:

 

  On 11/14/2014 at 5:48 PM, Cass said:

Thanks for answering Csarmi, Thane and Nyn 

 

Unfortunately for me, I really have to go to bed - again passing 330am and stuff going on tomorrow. I'm loving this but learning lessons. 

 

I have a few questions that may help me work this out when I get home tomorrow, was gonna wait since I hate the fact I'm behind again and there's probably stuff behind me I should read, but then again that's a long time from now may as well post them now and have your answers ready for me when I'm back tomorrow, right?

 

 

a) @ Des at What's with all your chopping and changing? I'm looking forward to reading your spoiler thing properly - and then your comments whenever you come back. Just sayin'

    @ EVERYONE who's played with Des before - IS Des playing just like Des, or not? I need to know if all this chopping and changing is just like him and natural this time, or not.

 

 

b) @Nyn - what's your current stance on Barm? You had a bad ju-ju for him at the beginning right? How about now, after my post and your re-read?

 

 

c) @DPR - What's your read on Kiv? When you suggested a Scum team that didn't include you or Kiv - why did you suggest Kiv should be out too? I can think of a 'plausible' reason for you, now. But not quite one for Kiv....?

 

So, for various reasons, I'm not going to go into detail on all of the possibilities regarding Kiv. What i said to Des about not giving the opposition talking points is a large part of this as well as the fact that half of this game (at least - more if the players are skilled) is dependent on what is not said. 

 

However, I will offer this: everything Kiv has said can be taken at face value and trusted. Just as he pointed out that I will play the same as scum or town, he will do the same and we will both use town-centric logic to seem town. The key here is that the information we offer always be correct or we'll give ourselves away. The danger to us, in we are scum, is that the later in the game we get, the higher the stakes and chances to get caught. This means that scum will more than likely need to make a move counter to logic and town play and then you have them. 

 

For now, know that Kivam has shared proven techniques and information that you can use.

 

Other than that, we'll just have to wait and see how things turn out. 

 

 

This.  Not trusted, but used - because even when I'm scum, I don't play with anything but townie logic.  Too easy to get caught that way.  Hence - verify I'm not skewing anything, look for yourself, but if I'm making an argument, it ought to be reviewed by everyone for how they feel about it (holes, agreements, etc.)

[Kivam]

  On 11/14/2014 at 6:52 PM, Despothera said:

I don't think Yates was "scrambling" and doing everything he could to get Pray lynched over Sili, I just think he was trying to stay consistent in his push in that slot.

 

Consider his tone when he DID push that slot Nyn, and consider that there were VERY few people he actually pushed yesterday. Pray was pretty much the only one. He soft pushed against Kiv and Wes after each interrogated him a bit, and soft pushed against Darthe but later backtracked on that, and late in the day he soft pushed against Tress.

 

The vast majority of his play was talking about himself, and (imo) trying to picket townies. I don't really feel the way he pushed @ Arsis/Pray and the fact that it was his only hard push speaks to Pray being his scummate here.

 

Think you're either being reactive to Pray's (admittedly scummy) post implying that Yates' push cleared him, or suffering from confbias

 

Also confused with Thane's push on Pray tbh. He asks for people's opinions on who looks scummy after some flips, and then just goes back to a D1 read, a read he camped on for quite a while in the midst of a bunch of other stuff.

 

PLUS, I could have def misread Yates spew and Yates could have been defending a teammate instead of WKing a townie

 

I think you're reading way too much into this.

 

[Kivam]

  On 11/14/2014 at 6:56 PM, Despothera said:

Yeah but even Pray himself just admitted that was prob a mistake-

 

You're either scum here Thane, or being too reactionary.

 

Look through my spew again, and tell me with a straight face you think he was trying to bus Arsis/Pray yesterday

 

That said, this is just silly logic.  Is that the way this works - if players admit what they did looked bad, it means they are town?  That's a null tell at best; it's either town acknowledging a mistake or scum claiming a mistake.  Got to wonder why you're pushing that as a basis to think he's a townie.

 

[Kivam]

  On 11/14/2014 at 8:36 PM, Despothera said:

Overall like the WIM in the spew analysis Rags, only a few things I kinda disagree with

 

Darthe being spewed town- expand on that because I didn't get that from there. Towards EOD yesterday Darthe was trending up for me, but Yates spew actually made me think Darthe COULD be his scummate in fact

 

Tress - it's possible you and Pray are right about Tress not being Yates' teammate here, but him mentioning her towards EOD seemed like it could have been distancing to me. Could just be that I REALLY didn't like her vote tho, and immediately after calling out that vote she seemed to indicate she was still wary of DPR... Who now seems >rand town now after Yates spew

 

Wombat - you never really explained much of why he seemed townie for you after the spew analysis... And my analysis if anything made him look bad to me. He called out Yates, but also hedged that callout in the same post. And the ONE time Yates quoted Wombat ("is this a joke") Wombat never responded... Yeah I disagree with that read a lot

 

I will say I like that you mentioned Yates never quoting or interacting with AJ much, that seemed weird to me especially since Yates had AJ as a town lean later on. Wasn't sure if that was spewing a teammate or trying to pocket town!AJ tho.

 

Also like that you pointed out everyone that Yates never quoted/interacted with, obviously results there are slightly murky if that person was just more inactive than most

 

Oh and you said Yates "townspewed" Leelou and Stelio....

 

What the hell is WIM?

[Kivam]

  On 11/14/2014 at 9:46 PM, WWWwombat said:

@Des:  I thought it was pretty obvious I was serious about my criticism of Yates' content along with the criticism of the attacks on him.  I don't see a need to answer every single rhetorical question thrown my way, and that's pretty clearly what Yates' question was imo.

 

@Wes, Cass:  Wes, I don't take anything you say at face value.  For the most part, I believe what you've been saying so far though.  As for Kivam, every argument he makes as scum is usually an argument he could make as town.  That's why he's so terrifying.  The difference is one of focus.  As scum, he won't examine certain lines of reasoning that he would as town, and he'll focus on others that he would give minimal attention as scum.  That's why I find his argument about me being the SK as wolfy.  It's internally consistent, but I don't think it's something he'd focus on yet as town.  Of course, I'll be the first to admit I could be biased from my PoV here, but that's my take.

 

@The Entire Game:  Still looks like most of you are on crazy pills.  Possible exceptions being DPR, Rags, and Despo, who may be coming down from them (too early to tell).  I think many of you need to seriously re-evaluate some of your stances.  There seems to be a lot of capricious tone-reading and black-and-white reasoning ITT.  You form reads too easily and stick to them too firmly.  This is the kind of "logic" that lets competent wolves dominate games on DM right now.  You can rarely catch good wolves that way.

 

For instance, of the people in this game, the only people alive who I actually think can tone read me reliably are Verbal and Wes (Kivam can read me well usually, but he doesn't usually go on things like tone in my experience).  Now, Verbal hasn't issued a read on me that I know of, but if you look at Wes, he was scum-reading me well before most of the rest of the game was, and now that everyone else has decided that I looked "off" at EOD, Wes seems to be one of the only people actually trying to play ball with me.  I don't know what Wes thinks of me right now, or if he's town or not, but I'd guess that he's town and that he's ambivalent on me.  Maybe you guys should consider the possibility that you are wrong.

 

Also, I'm really tired of having to write every single bit of my thought process out.  You guys should start inferring some things for yourselves.

 

First the Cromwell Approval now you're paraphrasing Oliver Cromwell?  All Cromwell all the time ...

 

[WWWwombat]

WiM = Want it more = effort/motivation to "solve" the game

 

A lot of people see WiM as a towntell these days.  I think that overall, it's pro-town, but not a towntell.

[WWWwombat]

  On 11/16/2014 at 6:12 PM, Kivam said:

First the Cromwell Approval now you're paraphrasing Oliver Cromwell?  All Cromwell all the time ...

 

Wasn't aware I was doing that there, but I have no problem with it.

[Kivam]

  On 11/15/2014 at 1:11 AM, Despothera said:

I need fantasy football advice plzzzzzzzzz

 

Anyone? Anyone interested in hearing my plight?

 

Sorry I got to this late. Would've guru'd for you

[Kivam]

  On 11/15/2014 at 3:52 AM, Andrej said:

Hi Womby.

 

Slank mode is now being deactivated.

 

@Kivam I'll quote your response later but I've been itching to respond to you since the thread has been locked and I've been away.

 

Firstly - looks like I was correct in my pg4 snap read on Leelou. Imagine that. I don't care what you think about tone reading but it is a thing and generally I'm fairly good at recognizing good mind sets when I see it. In a vacuum, as I stated, her behavior was villager driven. Also, there was no subtext to my question. You can't apply subtext motive while entirely disregarding context. Even if my intent was to shift attention back to her I never actually pushed her negatively and stated a few times in following posts how I actually thought it was a good sign. So, as a wolf, why would I turn the spotlight back onto a player and simultaneously defend the action I was highlighting?

 

Also, also - I highly dislike how you characterize my behavior as scummy to begin with, with the "spotlight" thing but by the end of the post you are talking to me as if I'm making bad reads for stupid reasons. Kinda gives me the vibe you know that I'm a villager. You're talking out of both sides of your mouth in that one.

 

My god, you snap-read a player as town (75% of the game) and were right?  That totally means it's the way to go.  Even assuming you're town (rather than knowing from the jump Leelou wasn't a teammate), it's post hoc ergo propter hoc at best

 

If you honestly don't know the answer to the first bold, I can't help you.

 

On the second, same response.  Your early play was scummy as hell.  Your latest play less so.  But either way, anyone who is insane enough to be certain of other players' alignment D1 is playing mafia wrong.

[Kivam]

  On 11/15/2014 at 5:19 AM, Andrej said:

It goes back to Yates's opening spiel about how he and I and him and Dice couldn't use our new-found 'tells' with one another because they had become acknowledged truths between us and therefore were no longer 'fair' to use.

 

Yates claiming a inno view on Dice from N0 reads to me like he was trying to win Dice over early.

 

How does that work?  The only way it would "win anyone over" is if Dice believed Yates was actually the cop - which would be completely crazypants for that claim.

 

[Andrej]

Firstly - I never said Leelou was 100% a villager for making that post. I explained several times that I saw it was a villagery thing to do and that made me comfortable with her as an early lean moving forward. Her play only increased that lean to a town read as the game progressed. For a snap read on pg4, it was still pretty good. Throwing numbers and percentages at it doesn't devalue my ability to discern a player's mindset just because you don't agree or find it stupid. Really it's just rather condescending on your part.

 

And I would like you to answer my first question, in all seriousness. It's another example of where I think your logic is questionable. You're characterizing my action as something negative when my follow up doesn't align with your conclusion. Like at all. It sounds made up where you're looking for generic 'tells' from players to push/fabricate scum reads on them.

[DPR]

  On 11/16/2014 at 4:50 PM, csarmi said:

DPR, I seriously have a hard time comprehending what you're trying to say, what you're trying to imply and what you're trying to ask.

 

In a nutshell, I'm implying that you are laying down cover for anti-town behavior. This fits with D1 Des thinking he was in a popularity contest instead of a mafia game, and maybe mirroring Yates bombastic and over-confident play.

 

What you've done today feels a little too much like you're cleaning up after Des and maybe trying to make a few things look not-so-bad... All during a day when neither of you is getting any heat, which tells me you are either inoculating against future casing or planning a fresh attack.

[Kivam]

  On 11/15/2014 at 5:28 AM, Darthe said:

Kiv and maybe Barm look a bit uptight at the start of D2.  

 

LOL no.  I don't do uptight

 

[Kivam]

  On 11/15/2014 at 5:30 AM, Andrej said:

Meh.

 

Yates telling me that we couldn't be Amigos this round is effectively the same thing. He made it a point to make that known from the beginning, and as I stated earlier, Arsis was the first to call him on it iirc which makes Pral look substantially better.

 

I agree