[Standard] 11/10 Top Tier Vanilla+ Game Thread

[Darthe]

caught up untill page 138, here's a few things: 

Not down for a cfd on cass. She's not on my lynch list for today, definitely less scummy than other options

Seeing Kivam's flip, does make Cass look worse some.

 

Hey did you guys see the part where Cass pretended to forget what a CFD is or do you just not read?

I do think that Nyn and i tried to explain the CFD well enough. Agree with Wombat on this point.

 

No Thane CFD Des.

he is right, no lynching townies if it can be avoided. 

 

Actually I have more to say on that.  For cass to be scum according to Womby logic it's associative depending on Kivam scum so if he wants to catch Cass he has to lynch Kiv first.

 

Based on this I'm willing to CFD Wombat.

@Darthe, thoughts? 

 

 

We have an hour.

 

I'm most happy with anyone from my top three (Wom, Kiv, DPR), and will happily take a gamble on anyone from my second tier (AJ, VerBarm, Thane, Deslarmi, Dice ... and, less happily, at Nyn).

 

If it ends up being one of the others then so be it, but I don't know enough on any of them to make a call.

 

 

 

One thing that might help - does Wom actually always do 'flurries' and harass people trying to genuinely understand?

Cass: who's your top suspect now? Your top three are all dead. 

Maybe he got a guilty result on Cass?  I doubt he would have played the day like that if so tbh, more like Womby just trying to shake things up.  

 

Town is killing right now and it's awesome.  Get HYPED son.  Here's why

 

9-1-1

Let's even assume a town kill for the lynch today, so 8-1-1

Hally conf. town so if she dies tonight but neither of the vigs do and everyone shoots and they go to different places etc we go to 5-1-1 with two confirmed townies.

That really makes it 3-1-1.  Mafia needs to kill SK and SK needs to kill mafia here or else they draw by the next day with 2-1-1 (assuming no crossfire and all town deaths which isn't actually likely) so 

Between these things, 1/3 of the town being confirmable and three shots going around at night, two of which are dangerous to each faction we are close to mechanically locked.  We would be by tomorrow if we removed one of those kills and were able to clear one more townie.

[Andrej]

Bottom up and we win in my opinion.

[Thane Vakarian]

Darthe, could you point out where Hallia is confirmed townie? i must have missed it

 

and please, put me in the townie pile too, to avoid a mislynch

 

claim VANILLA TOWN (it's uncanny how often i get this too)

[Darthe]

Darthe, could you point out where Hallia is confirmed townie? i must have missed it

 

and please, put me in the townie pile too, to avoid a mislynch

 

claim VANILLA TOWN (it's uncanny how often i get this too)

Someone quoted Womby saying it on D1 as his N0 peek so I'm going with that.  I think it's on the last page.

[Hallia]

 

Ha!  Foiled by vote tags!

 

 

Still think rep should have been the #1 priority.  Then I could rep this post.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sup

Townie post.

Generic to the way I speak post.

Defending yourself against an accusation of being town? Weird.

Not really, that shouldn't be judged as a townie or non townie post.

 

 

Anyone getting third party vibes from Leelou here?

 

AHA! I found it.  Good to see I was right about Krak.

 

 

 

*Has caught up with the reading to here and come to the following conclusion...*

 

I think I agree with Darth's central statement in post #111 .

 

... This thread is now shenanigans

 

(I'm gonna hit the hay, see y'all later in the morning).

what did the hay ever do to anybody?!

 

 

Thane is clear imo. 

 

 

As clean as fresh fallen snow.

 

 

Why are we talking about this? I'm not going to base my read on Thane on what he rolled in recent games and the fact that he got mislynched. Either we need to learn to read him better or he needs to adjust his play to be more readable. Or both. So lets put previous games aside cause they have no bearing on what he rolled this game.

 

I'm basically gonna try and understand where you're coming from, Thane, and make my own conclusions. But yeah, drop the previous games commentary. 

 

This likely comes from town Nyn, imo.

 

Thane lynch D1 is a lazy lynch.

 

 

I just don't understand why it was brought up. The fact that he got mislynched a lot isn't meta. No one is referring to anything he usually does as town/scum. It's just being said that people often misread him.... so what?

It's the same thing I brought up about Hally recently. Certain players are kept around as lynch bait. Hally is [was?] one and Thane is another.

 

I don't think he's going to completely change the way he plays. So instead you have to look at his meta and understand what is a Town tell and a scum tell FOR HIM. It's the same thing you do for anyone else you are more familiar with and the reason you defer to Leelou on a Verb read, for example.

 

I think Thane pointing out how often he is mislynched is his way of saying "you guys don't get me." And that's fair.

 

 

I feel like all of the above is Krak and Yates trying to prevent the D1 lynch on Thane.  Gonna continue my reread at work, but for now.

 

Vote: ##Thane

[Thane Vakarian]

Ah, ok... saw that too. But was that the only N0 view WOmbat did?

[Andrej]

[v]##Tress[/v]

 

Contemplated voting Nyn here for counter wagon reasons but meh. The Day is young, yet.

[Thane Vakarian]

hello to you too Hallia. 

 

Does it occur to you that they want this mislynch to happen?

[Darthe]

Don't understand why Thane is trying to paint seer cover as CCs when seer cover has already been explained in response to his reaction to Yates' claim.

 

Also, my n0 villapeek is Hally.

FTR Laya quoted it.  

[Thane Vakarian]

Or; here's another mad idea, they both 'protected' me D1 so that, if i were lynched D1 (which, yeah... we know the history) they'd look better?

[Nynaeve]

I'm kinda wary of Nyn at this point. I don't think she's a wolf after Krak's lame push on D1 but I see some SK equity especially now that her chew toy flipped green. I think Verb had a point when he said all the "lolz" and emoticons were making her seem forced. Like over compensation if you will.

 

Nah, not really. I was just amused cause I thought him and Barm were flailing and making horrible arguments. I was gloaty. Heh.

[Nynaeve]

I think WAS is the operative word >.>

[Darthe]

In order here are my reads

 

Hally

AJ

Deslami

Dice

Nyn

Cass

Thane

Laya

Rags

Tress

 

I think that a bus move yesterday from mafia is not something that would have happened before it was clear that Kivam was going to die considering how close the trains were and that they had JUST lost a member, but it isn't impossible because it's Kivam so I am not looking at that yet.  These are formed simply from who is left and how I consider them in lieu of the deaths.

 

Hally is seer cleared so only has a 1/20 chance of being an SK with GF, prob making her the clearest person in the game.  I wouldn't think to go here before F5 and still would prob pick her over most alive.

Dice is someone I've went back and forth on and he could be down just below rags save that he was Yates peek.  Knowing Yates as long as I have he would do a lot of crazy things but claiming info on a non-GF D1 is begging to get counter-claimed later on or someone asking why you weren't NK'd to SHC Dice.  

I wanted to put Cass above Nyn here but they're roughly equal in my eyes and Nyn has brought more to the table.  That's my faintly good feelingz zone

IMO Thane is less likely mafia/SK than the inactives or Laya.  He has done better in the game, plain and simple.

Leaving us with the inactives.  Hate POG logic on this but it holds in this situation.  They're equally viable lynches in my eyes and if they aren't a vig we really can't afford to take the risk on them much longer.  I don't have firm reds left with Verbacle and Kiv gone.  I think Deslami really antied up their game though I know I'd go at them in F3 but barring that this is prob a winning lineup.

[Andrej]

Forgot about Dice. He can go into my top group as well.

[Thane Vakarian]

i have dice in my not so sure list for a reason. The fact that a player can be forgotten on D3 isn't always a good sign imo

[Thane Vakarian]

@Hallia: i absolutely am sure that i am town, who'd be another suspect for you?

[Nynaeve]

In order here are my reads

 

Hally

AJ

Deslami

Dice

Nyn

Cass

Thane

Laya

Rags

Tress

 

I think that a bus move yesterday from mafia is not something that would have happened before it was clear that Kivam was going to die considering how close the trains were and that they had JUST lost a member, but it isn't impossible because it's Kivam so I am not looking at that yet.  These are formed simply from who is left and how I consider them in lieu of the deaths.

 

Hally is seer cleared so only has a 1/20 chance of being an SK with GF, prob making her the clearest person in the game.  I wouldn't think to go here before F5 and still would prob pick her over most alive.

Dice is someone I've went back and forth on and he could be down just below rags save that he was Yates peek.  Knowing Yates as long as I have he would do a lot of crazy things but claiming info on a non-GF D1 is begging to get counter-claimed later on or someone asking why you weren't NK'd to SHC Dice.  

I wanted to put Cass above Nyn here but they're roughly equal in my eyes and Nyn has brought more to the table.  That's my faintly good feelingz zone

IMO Thane is less likely mafia/SK than the inactives or Laya.  He has done better in the game, plain and simple.

Leaving us with the inactives.  Hate POG logic on this but it holds in this situation.  They're equally viable lynches in my eyes and if they aren't a vig we really can't afford to take the risk on them much longer.  I don't have firm reds left with Verbacle and Kiv gone.  I think Deslami really antied up their game though I know I'd go at them in F3 but barring that this is prob a winning lineup.

 

This is pretty much where I'm at, POE wise.

 

Desalami, AJ, you and Hallia are people I won't lynch. Halli for peek and vote on Kivam. AJ because I generally felt good about his posts throughout the game and the way Kivam was trying to push his train speaks volumes. Des and Salami I've had as town since early on. And I've reread your posts, Darthe, and I liked quite a few of them. Feels like you're in solve mode.

 

 

That remaining group of people I have in this order:

 

Thane

Cass

Laya

Tress

Rags

 

 

I will expand on Tress and Rags when I do the ISOs. Hoping to get to that in a bit. With Pral... I made my thoughts known about Arsis posts and his start of D2 posts. With that said i did like his second reads post and the posts he made today. Someone pointed out that Yates' vote on him most of D1 might spew him as not being scum... but it doesn't exclude him from being the SK. So I'm still iffy about him. 

 

So this is where I'm at right now.

[Nynaeve]

I think I'll be able to see things more clearly once I go through their posts. Will get to it soon, promise.

[Nynaeve]

Cass is a hard read for me because she's new. But I don't want to discount her just because she's new. I did get the distinct feeling that she's trying to figure things out, even if I did find myself disagreeing with her on occasions. But then one has to wonder if she'd have the proficiency to fake it in her first game. Prolly not.

 

Thane I just have a nagging feeling that he's town. I feel that he is trying. But I have misread him in the past so I'll openly admit that I could be wrong.

 

I think I forgot to mention dice. He's above Thane. I think Yates inno peek on him was him trying to pocket him. The whole bringing up the 3 amigos thing I think rooted with Yates trying to manipulate them, imo.

 

 

So my read list is:

 

 

AJ, Desalami, Darthe, Hallia

Dice

Thane

Cass

Laya

Tress

Rags

[Thane Vakarian]

*nags Nyn some more*

 

Just to make sure you get more of a town feel for me.

[csarmi]

 

 

caught up untill page 138, here's a few things:

 

Not down for a cfd on cass. She's not on my lynch list for today, definitely less scummy than other options

Seeing Kivam's flip, does make Cass look worse some.

Hey did you guys see the part where Cass pretended to forget what a CFD is or do you just not read?

I do think that Nyn and i tried to explain the CFD well enough. Agree with Wombat on this point.

No Thane CFD Des.

he is right, no lynching townies if it can be avoided.

Actually I have more to say on that. For cass to be scum according to Womby logic it's associative depending on Kivam scum so if he wants to catch Cass he has to lynch Kiv first.

 

Based on this I'm willing to CFD Wombat.

@Darthe, thoughts?

 

We have an hour.

 

I'm most happy with anyone from my top three (Wom, Kiv, DPR), and will happily take a gamble on anyone from my second tier (AJ, VerBarm, Thane, Deslarmi, Dice ... and, less happily, at Nyn).

 

If it ends up being one of the others then so be it, but I don't know enough on any of them to make a call.

 

 

 

One thing that might help - does Wom actually always do 'flurries' and harass people trying to genuinely understand?

Cass: who's your top suspect now? Your top three are all dead.

Maybe he got a guilty result on Cass? I doubt he would have played the day like that if so tbh, more like Womby just trying to shake things up.

 

Town is killing right now and it's awesome. Get HYPED son. Here's why

 

9-1-1

Let's even assume a town kill for the lynch today, so 8-1-1

Hally conf. town so if she dies tonight but neither of the vigs do and everyone shoots and they go to different places etc we go to 5-1-1 with two confirmed townies.

That really makes it 3-1-1. Mafia needs to kill SK and SK needs to kill mafia here or else they draw by the next day with 2-1-1 (assuming no crossfire and all town deaths which isn't actually likely) so

Between these things, 1/3 of the town being confirmable and three shots going around at night, two of which are dangerous to each faction we are close to mechanically locked. We would be by tomorrow if we removed one of those kills and were able to clear one more townie.

Despo tell me what you think about this post pls. In QT if you will.

[Darthe]

[v] ##tress [/v] what are you doing?

[Songstress]

Just for grins, let's do this first... 

 

 

Fairly comfortable town reads:

 

DesLami 

Kivam - Wolf N1 Vig - Lynched D2

WWWwombat - Seer - Killed N2

Nyn

 

 

Townish vibe:

 

Yates. - Wolf Godfather - Killed N1

Rags

Thane

 

Null/mixed/no clue:

 

Dice

AJ

Leelou - Vanillager - Killed N1

Verbal32 / Barmacral Hydra - Vanillager - Killed N2

Cass 

Stelio Kontos - Jailkeeper - Killed N1

Hallia

 

Mildly uncomfortable:

 

Arsis/Pral

Krakalakachkn - Wolf N2 Vig - Killed N2

Darthe

 

No specifics for these guys, just a gut level discomfort that I can probably go back and make less nebulous this weekend.

 

Top scum leans:

 

Sili Quirrels - Vanillager - Lynched D1

DreadPirateRoberts - Vanillager - Killed N2

 

Good God, I'm on a roll.  At least one of my top town picks was town.

 

Revised version to come later.

[Songstress]

Also.

 

N1 vigilante, N2 vigilante are now Named Townie roles. We are at 9-1-1 now.

 

Interesting.

 

This tells me who you're not...

[Songstress]

Okay, so I'll try to go through Kivam's content later but a couple of posts that I recall caught my eye.

 

 

Here is the post I mentioned him calling Tress a solid town read of his. I'll have to jump into his recaps to see if this correlates, but from where I'm standing I don't see why he would have a solid town read on her logically. She has less than 20 posts and I'm finding it very difficult to read her. It irks me that he didn't really say why. He just threw it out there. So I'm wondering if this is TMI on his part or buddying.

 

 

What's the general opinion on Tress atm btw?

 

I'm a little put off by how she is defending Despot vs DPR on pg 75.

 

"Re: the bolded/purpled/underlined DPR quote above...

 

See, despite the patented Des Tunneling, this is one of the points he's made against you that really does continue to make complete sense.  You keep characterizing his "seer cover" explanation as DES bringing it up to explain Yates' behavior as a town move, but the actual context doesn't support that.  Despo didn't just "bring it up" - he was specifically asked what he thought about Yates' claim and clearing of Dice, and he kinda had to bring up "seer cover" to explain why he was disregarding the claim entirely.   Blame it on Dice, if anyone, and unless you think Yates, Dice and Despo are mafia together and planned that little exchange behind the scenes, I do not think it means what you think it means."

 

The bolded/colored bit is what bugs me the most. Could just be hindsight bias on my part for seeing this now with knowledge of Yates's alignment but it strikes me in a bad manner.

 

I think Tress is actually playing a very straight game.  Strong town lean on her

 

 

 

 

Then there's another post where he shows interest in Des saying that if DPR flips town, it'll make him wary of Tress:

 

 

 

 

Des, let's say you have to lead a lynch today but it can't be on me or Kiv. Who do you pick?

DPR

 

I think he has spun a whole lot of honkey today, keeps semi-contradicting himself and being vague all game, and if scum could give some juicy info on other people in the game. If town then not as much, but I think in that scenario I'd prob be more wary of Tress again

 

Barring that, I'd go for Thane, but eh I kinda agree with Darthe that he'd be a better Vig target than lynch candidate

 

 

This is interesting: Why Tress if DPR is town?

 

 

I'll  have to check if Tress and Kivam actually interact at any point. And also ISO Tress' posts. So I'll get back to that later on. But I am sort of wondering why he felt interested. 

 

 

 

 

Another post that nagged at me is the following:

 

 

DPR  have you ever spoken to someone and, just by the way they have said something, known they were being sarcastic?  I bet you have.  THATS tone reading. It IS a thing.

 

It's only a thing if the people you are playing with can't fake it.  I can. I know Wes can, and Wombat can, etc.  From what I read in-thread, Ragnarok can.  

 

 

I don't really understand why he said that about Rags. As far as I know he has never played with Rags before. Why would he say that from what he read in thread he can tell that Rags is good at faking his tone????

 

Kinda find it interesting that you'd assume Kivam of all people would toss out a random town read on a teammate for no apparent reason. 

 

I'd say AJ or Cass would be a better place to look, but I don't know that he'd be that obvious either.  Pretty sure everything Kivam said should be disregarded entirely, because hello WIFOM.  We're more likely to get clues to the last mafia from Yates and Krak.

 

Hallia's analysis looks pretty legit, I can see where she's coming from - but if Thane is right, and he's being set up, my gut tells me Nyn is a good place to look for the final mafia.

 

DesLami is my top pick for SK right now.

 

Have to run to the bank on the way to work so I'm out of time for this morning.  I'll see how I feel tonight and elaborate more.  I'll try to catch any questions for me later, if there are any aside from people implying I'm scum for being inactive and/or being wrong.