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 A WHEEL OF TIME COMMUNITY

[Advanced] Revenge of the Marlfox

Krakalakachkn

By Krakalakachkn
in DM Mafia Games

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BFG Spam Master

BFG

Posted
Posted

 

but if you want to figure out possible teams with Des and I as town then you need to assume a split vote, and then look to see who wasn't around (so effectively had their vote flocked and couldn't switch). Splitting the teams by the people voting the same train is lazy.

 

For example a team consisting of

 

Manbat, Pral, Hallia and either Dice, Serf or Lates couldn't have achieved a lynch on either of us, assuming that Serf or Dice missed Rags vote, since your vote was locked on me and Manbat missed deadline. I don't think that group is likely since if Manbat were mafia at Lyle there's very little chance that he'd risk not voting, however mechanically the group is possible.

 

Why? All the scum need is a lynch and clearly they wouldn't be split up at deadline. it is possible someone might have missed - which is what I am also theorizing - or one of you two is scum.

 

But you're assuming that votes are Locked when they're not. But this is a theoretical debate

Sili Quirrels Master

Sili Quirrels

Posted
Posted

Alright, so here's where I'm at in regards to the role claims. I started putting together my thoughts before the last sequence of posts between pral and key, so I use spoilers to help resolve the dissonance.

 

 

For me the cases against each, and their redundant role claims boil down like this: Despot's activity has been erratic, and Key has been a little haughty in combating suspicion; BFG reads as town finding a solve; Despothera reads as Despothera needing a solve, but wanting out when no one listens to him. Assuming two circumstantial roleblockers for scum is an unlikely set up, I wouldn't be surprised if there are two protectors. If not, then wolfpack holstered last night to roleblock Lates and make it seem like Key was town. Wifom tinfoil ensues, etc. If such were the case I would expect them to push a third party, and distance themselves from the wolfpack.

 

Sili Quirrels Master

Sili Quirrels

Posted
Posted

 

He said that he protected us Night 3 so we could protect Tommy. Given Tommy died Night 2 it was physically impossible for us to protect Tommy. Therefore thinking we'd protect Tommy can NOT have entered his thinking at all. As such his reason was made up and bogus. He's avoided giving an alternative explanation to Dice (soon after he slipped) and me twice today, he's tried brushing it off by misrepresenting what I've said, but hasn't come close to answering the question yet.

 

He hasn't replied?

Sili Quirrels Master

Sili Quirrels

Posted
Posted

 

 

He said that he protected us Night 3 so we could protect Tommy. Given Tommy died Night 2 it was physically impossible for us to protect Tommy. Therefore thinking we'd protect Tommy can NOT have entered his thinking at all. As such his reason was made up and bogus. He's avoided giving an alternative explanation to Dice (soon after he slipped) and me twice today, he's tried brushing it off by misrepresenting what I've said, but hasn't come close to answering the question yet.

 

He hasn't replied?

 

Replying to a question and answering it are different things.

Sili Quirrels Master

Sili Quirrels

Posted
Posted

@#@$$@  4am deadlines and no deadline counters.....

 

 

fine  just in case but i am not voting BFG   ##unvote  vote ##Hally

This isn't a very big turn around for you, but your votes appear inconsistent. What's your logic behind voting me, then hallia when I've supported a hallia lynch since the beginning?

 

Have you done a PoE yet, and if so, could you link me to it?

BFG Spam Master

BFG

Posted
Posted

I suspect that if Verb was town, wolves would be clamoring to get a free Verb lynch on D1 at my behest.

 

And yet -- resistance.

 

 

Ok, starting at just over 4 hours to deadline.

 

This is the current VC.

 

VOTE COUNT

 

 

Team Cuddles (1): Arsis

 

 

 

 

 

Berf (4): Key, Alanna, AJ, Thane

BFKEY(2): Dice, Pral

Sili (1): Des

Tommy (1): Lates

Arsis (2): Verbal, Monstr

Verbal (2): Sili, Tommy

Despoo (1): Cuddles

 

 

Not Voting (2): The rest of you lot.

 

 

 

Deadline Set:

 

 

http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20141030T21&p0=2133&msg=Deadline+Day+1&csz=1

Arsis, Cory, Tommy, Sili, Key and Leelou are around or at least posting on the same page.

 

Tommy and Cory start a train on Verb, Leelou votes Berf.

 

Key leaves (vote is on largest train), Alanna and Manbat turn up

 

Manbat tries to start a fire drill onto Rags,

 

Dice shows, happy leaving his vote on us.

 

Verb shows up and says he'll be around at EOD.

 

I tell a lie, Key's still posting from mobile

 

Manbat mentions SK here

 

Tommy says Des has been gone for a while.

 

Hallia's also around

 

Rags shows up

 

VOTE COUNT

 

 

Team Cuddles (1): Arsis

 

 

 

 

 

 

Berf (5): Key, Alanna, AJ, Thane, Lates

BFKEY(2): Dice, Pral

Sili (1): Des

Arsis (2): Verbal, Monstr

Verbal (2): Sili, Cuddles

Rags (1): Tommy

 

 

Not Voting (2): The rest of you lot.

 

 

 

Deadline Set:

 

 

http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20141030T21&p0=2133&msg=Deadline+Day+1&csz=1

I agree the lack of vote movement makes me think it points to a villager wagon

 

But if he berf won't play we can't make him

I like this post with hindsight.

 

Leelou and Verb are talking about Thane, Hallia and Rags are talking about Sili.

 

The only thing that worries me is the lack of vote movement

Don't know what to make about the emphasis though.

 

Tommy votes Sili at 22:56, Rags and Leelou follow, then Hallia, Manbat's talking about a CFD but not voting yet

 

Tom revotes Bert at

23:17 with just under 3 hours to go. Essentially Arsis was the only person posting who didn't vote Sili. Key's back again but stuck with her mafia read.

 

 

VOTE COUNT

 

 

 

Team Cuddles (1): Arsis

 

 

 

 

 

 

Berf (5): Key, Alanna, AJ, Thane, Tommy

BFKEY(2): Dice, Pral

Sili (4): Des, Rags, Lates, Cuddles

Arsis (2): Verbal, Monstr

Verbal (1): Sili

 

 

 

Not Voting (1): The rest of you lot.

 

 

 

Deadline Set:

 

 

http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20141030T21&p0=2133&msg=Deadline+Day+1&csz=1

Alanna's around and sticking with her vote on Barf, given that there's one votebetween Berf and Sili. I think this means they're unlikely to be mafia together.

 

Tommy brings up Thane, Alanna sort of agrees

 

Arsis states that he won't vote Berf.

 

Sili votes counter wagon, wagons are 6-5 about 1 hour to deadline.

 

Mostly Sili, Arsis, Tommy talking.

 

Tommy tries to move the lynch to Berf again.

 

Berf shows up 45 minutes to deadline.

 

Tommy tries to shift to Rags again http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/91500-advanced-revenge-of-the-marlfox/?p=3368749

 

Manbat votes Rags

 

I turn up

 

 

Dice votes Sili. Says he won't vote Berf or Rags at that time.

 

Tommy votes Thane, half an hour to go.

 

FINAL VOTE COUNT

 

 

 

Berf (2): AJ, Thane

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

BFKEY(1): Pral

Sili (4): Des, Lates, Cuddles, Dice

Thane (9): Tommy, Alanna, Sili, Berf, Monstr, Flea Bag, Arsis, BFKEY, Rags

 

 

 

 

IT'S A LYNCH.

Followed by everyone who was around at the time.

 

Leelou turns up later having fallen asleep.

 

There's a lot of confirmation bias in this, but I (obviously) find it suspect that the people I'm most suspicious of now weren't around, and probably makes it a train on town. The only people actively against Berf's lynch were Arsis (town) and Dice, and Dice and Serf can't both be mafia, (unless I'm wrong on the 3 man team thing).

 

This didn't give as much new information as I'd hoped, the biggest (and only real) pushes were town motivated, Tommy wasn't defending a mafia partner with his new trains. The trains that took off were the easy ones :( Rags train didn't take off, but neither did Verbs, and most of the same people voted for Thane and Sili.

 

I remember that Pral analysed the wagons and I remember disagreeing with some of it at the time, I'll dig that out later and see if it makes more sense now.

 

It's currently time for dinner, I'll be back later, internet allowing

 

GL :)

BFG Spam Master

BFG

Posted
Posted

Oops, Tommy's post was quoted out of place. I quoted it because I thought it a good point, but given he flipped town wondered who wasn't around.

 

But it's possible just confirmation bias again now.

hazelkrs1 Spam Master

hazelkrs1

Posted
Posted

Unnnngggggggghhhhh if we really didn't secure a lynch again, yeahhhhhhhh I just don't know how I can keep doing this. I'm already well past the point of trying to convince the few people who seem to well, have their minds made up already.

 

Just cause I'm a pal, I'll answer the last question I saw from BFG.

 

If I said I protected BFG N3 because of Tommy, I must have misremembered or mispoke. Let me, to the best that I can recall, go through each of my NA's and the motivation behind each one:

 

N1: Protect Lates - this one was more instinct driven than anything. I was starting to suspect Alanna and Key, and saw they both had LOCK CLEARED Leelou for what seemed like unclear reasons so I thought they might try killing them instead of targeting Tommy since he'd be an obvious protect target.

 

N2: Protect Arsis - figured scum would try killing him since his role could be instrumental in helping to catch scum

 

N3: Protect BFKey - this one was a bit more yolo, and figured they might be telling the truth and were the only claimed town protective role so might be targeted with the NK.

 

N4: Protect Lates - figured scum would think I would self protect, and that Lates was the most likely NK target (Hallia as other claimed town PR only had 1 shot left, think at the time I thought it was a Vig shot)

Nynaeve Spam Master

Nynaeve

Posted
Posted

Okay. Krak is not answering so I'm hijacking his game....  :tongue:   Since extending the deadline WAS discussed.....

 

 

New Deadline:  8 PM, EST.

 

 

 

 

You have a little over 5 hours.

Yates Master

Yates

Posted
Posted

Monstr and Sili - you guys need to vote for Hally for us to even have a chance at winning.  I think Pral will see the light.

Sili Quirrels Master

Sili Quirrels

Posted
Posted

^As I was about to say, the wagons are pretty close, so it looks like as good a chance as any.  I don't feel the need to offer much commentary, and Lates can say what's left, but I'm thinking Despot and Key might have been set up for today's lynch, which is why neither were killed yesterday.

 

I will vote key, but only if it adverts another no lynch.

 

For now - ##Hallia

Yates Master

Yates

Posted
Posted

If I do get lynched, please believe when I flip that Pral is town, and I'm almost positive Des.

If you were to flip Town JOAT, why *wouldn't* we assume Pral is Town?

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