[Advanced] Red Wedding Mafia - Post Game, MakersMark

[Xthrax]

Any idea if there us a deadline today?

[Darthe]

Official Vote Count:

 

Tommy (2/5): Dice, Krak

Dawn (1/5): Red

Dice (4/5): Cloud, Dawn, X, Tommy

 

Not Voting (1/8):

 

Lenlo

 

35 hours til Night

[Krakalakachkn]

X, you sold on Dice being scum?

[amegakure]

thats not an aggressive tone and im not attacking your character. Every time i see you post its hey im catching up. wanna fill me in. But then you seem to have the knowledge to adequately debate topics. So your catch up is just an appeal to emotion so people will let you slips slide

 

Also cloud is the one who who said you as town until recently since your behavior has changed and not for the better.

 

I've thought you where scum against clouds better judgement with the way you where going after red. 

[Xthrax]

Acc. to my earlier case yes. I will have to get on laptop to see what happened lsst night properly

[Krakalakachkn]

I've been caught up the past 2-3 days and I wasn't offended or anything if you took it that way, it just looks scummy.  I'm surprised you haven't said anything before now - you've disagreed with Cloud on reads in-thread before.  What different about me?  

[Krakalakachkn]

And why now?  Because it seems really suspicious that you're saying this with Dice at L-1 and Lylo.

[Krakalakachkn]

Alright, this doesn't seem to be going anywhere tonight and I'll have a little time tomorrow morning to log on.  I won't be able to get on most of the day tomorrow but I should have some time again tomorrow night or if I'm lucky tomorrow late afternoon.

 

 

[Lenlo]

@Lenlo

 

 

Thoughts on today's events?

Leans?

Reads?

Anything to share?

Im not sure. If its between Dice and Tommy Im voting Dice but we have enough time to do someone else if we want to. Im trying to take it slow because this is most likely LyLo.

[Darthe]

Reminder: This is a hybrid hammer game.  You do not need a hammer to achieve a lynch.  In the event of deadline passing without a hammer the person with the most votes will be lynched.  In the event of a tie either neither, both or one of the people selected will die.  Random.org will decide which of the four options is chosen.

[dicetosser1]

Great  so im probably gonna get killed either way.

 

 

@Len   Why me? I cant change your view unless i clearly know what it is.

[Lenlo]

Great  so im probably gonna get killed either way.

 

 

@Len   Why me? I cant change your view unless i clearly know what it is.

Because I dont think Tommy is scum. As I said if its between the two of you, im going with the person I think is scummier but im not sure who I think is scummiest atm. When I have time im going to do some reading and try and solidify those views.

[amegakure]

krak what exactly is it that you're asking of me? i have disagreed with cloud and i told him in our qt that i would disagree as well. It heightens the way we critcally analyze the thread

 

why do you think Tommy is scummier out of everyone since day one he has been town spewed by multiple confirmed town. Also who are you're other scum reads besides Tommy. There are what 3 more left? If proper casing was brought forward im sure we can sus out another suspect but until then im firm on dice. Who hasnt even tried to fight his lynch anymore. Not a paticulary towntelling trait 
 

[Tommyrod]

I'm gonna sleep on this. I really think Dice is scum and I want you guys to agree with me and see what I see so I'll be taking another look at his posts in this game tomorrow and look for supplementary scum spew that would support a solve. I am willing to admit that I could be wrong, but I don't think I am. If you're not mafia, please collaborate. If you happen to be town and you're still absolutely convinced I'm scum tomorrow, whatever; there should also be two more scum in your eyes, so let's find and talk about those.

[Tommyrod]

GIF unrelated

[Krakalakachkn]

I've got cocks crowing and burros barking and all I want to do is sleep.  It's too early for this shit.

 

 

Reminder: This is a hybrid hammer game.  You do not need a hammer to achieve a lynch.  In the event of deadline passing without a hammer the person with the most votes will be lynched.  In the event of a tie either neither, both or one of the people selected will die.  Random.org will decide which of the four options is chosen.

 

 

Does that mean you've set a deadline?

[Krakalakachkn]

Lenlo what's going to help us most at this point is vocalizing our thoughts.  Not so others can change them necessarily, but so we can keep each other accountable, see whose processes are false or true,and hopefully achieve a #gamesolve.  I'm in agreement with Tom on this one - I want a game solve and I am willing to admit that I could be wrong.  

 

A concise case on Dice re presented for today would be a great start because like I said earlier, I don't really see one.

 

 

 

Edit: spelling/grammar

[Krakalakachkn]

Gotta run.  Don't know if I'll be able to get on before a bit later tonight.  

 

 

 

[Red2111]

okay i have not caught up and being at LYLO i've decided to focus on staying current from where i came back from LoA.

 

 

that said, right now i'm leaning town on Krak and Lenlo.  Lenlo based on previous gut reads and current play, and krak on recent play (mainly its the cautiousness at lynching seeing as we're LYLO that makes me trust these two)

 

 

i'm pinging heavily on Tommy and Megaloud.  Tommy has been a ping all game, and his aggressive speed lynch style at LYLO is pinging hard core; he's also trying hard core to use Leelou and Tina's interactions to clear and condem people, interactions which are full of WIFOM.  Megaloud ...  has pinged since D2, they pulled a Mishtress,  Ameg started getting heat over buddying with me and then Cloud took over.  Cloud is still apparently in the drive seat with Ameg pulling support.

 

Krak pointed it out, how when he voted Tommy Megaloud jumped his case like white on rice, and when i read it, it caused the biggest gut scum ping i've had all game.

 

 

i agree with Krak 110% that these two are starting to play like over eager scum who think they've won the game.

 

 

 

side note - anyone want to vote Darthe for bringing back the finder just to kill him <_<  not cool bro.  funny, but not cool.

 

 

i'm gonna anaylaze the vote counts here before casting my vote; because i think i can narrow down the scum.

[Tommyrod]

Red, keep reading and then drop your conclusions once you're fully caught up. I'll be observing for a while; sometimes I get better reads by not being the focus of conversation. But if your reads end up being "gut feels" I'll be fairly furious with you because I can't do anything with that but disagree with you. I'm going to argue my viewpoints tonight using in thread evidence rather than vague sentiments and if you are town and intend to win the game with me then I strongly suggest you do the same.

[Xthrax]

I'm back.

 

 

Lenlo what's going to help us most at this point is vocalizing our thoughts.  Not so others can change them necessarily, but so we can keep each other accountable, see whose processes are false or true,and hopefully achieve a #gamesolve.  I'm in agreement with Tom on this one - I want a game solve and I am willing to admit that I could be wrong.  

 

A concise case on Dice re presented for today would be a great start because like I said earlier, I don't really see one.

 

 

 

Edit: spelling/grammar

A game solve is what we should be going for. I have a case for Dice that I made a while back ISO-ing his posts. I will link it here.

 

http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/88924-advanced-red-wedding-mafia-day-5-no-soup-for-you/page-115?do=findComment&comment=3232929

 

Following the subsequent posts will give Dice's response and my response to his rebuttal.

 

What convinced me was basically his rebuttal. I put out the case with him being one of my scum leans. His first response rage-y instead of answering the question or comments on the points I made. His next a little calmer but gave me a not so right feel. Like a controlled sort of feel. He later posted that he was gonna ignore me and add me to his scum pile. He has been saying that when people ISO, its scummy for him.

 

I'll now look at his this day's posts and give an opinion on what I feel.

 

Like I said before, I'd like to go Dice, Dawn and Tommy.

[Red2111]

okay - heres the finale VC's for each day, and the latest one for today. 

 

green = confirm townie

 

red = confirm scum

 

 

 

Official Bloody Vote Count:

Crayjay (1/10): Dice

Mistress (9/10): NyanCat, Red, X, Jack, Desbat, Mistress, Nol, Zanube, Dawn

Red (7/10): Dawn, Tommy, Yates, Verbalina, Krak, Len, Cloud

Mynd (2/10): CrayJay, Halleeloujah

Tommy(1/10): Megaloud

 

Not Voting (1/19):

 Mynd

 

Does anyone see any corrections that need be made before the scene is posted?  You'll have about ten minutes to speak up or this is considered cannon.

 

 

ummm @Darthe - da faq is up with that vote count dude.  you have Cloud and Dawn voting twice??  i recall Dawn switch to Mishstress (had to vote multi times to do it though)  and i think Cloud came in right before deadline to move the Megaloud vote back to me.

 

 

 

 

Official Vote Count:

Mynd (9/9): NyanCat, Jack, X, Tommy, Megaloud, Halleeloujah, Verbalina, Len, Andrej

Jack (2/9): Yates, Dawn

 

Not Voting (5/16):

Krak, Dice, Red, Zanube, Mynd

 

 

 

 

Official Vote Count (Of Doom):

Halleeloujah (8/8): MegaLoud, NyanCat, CrayJay, Verbalina, Jack, Tommy, Krak, X

CrayJay (1/8): Dawn

Len (1/8): Halleleloujah

 

Non-voters (of doom) 3/13:

Len, Dice, Red

 

 

 

 

Official Vote Count:

 

Jack (6/6): Megaloud, Dawn, Tommy, Nyancat, X, Len

MegaLoud (1/6): Jack, Dice

 

Not Voting (2/10):

Krak, Red

 

 

 

 

Official Vote Count:

 

Tommy (2/5): Dice, Krak

Dawn (1/5): Red

Dice (4/5): Cloud, Dawn, X, Tommy

 

Not Voting (1/8):

 

Lenlo

 

35 hours til Night

 

 

 

alright - so based on the vote counts alone and the a-typical scum behavior of distancing from team mates vs trying to look town.  this is what i have.

 

 

D1 - they would have spread their votes out.  this means that the Mishtress vote gives us the most info, as one or two scum are there.  which means that our two wagons today, on probabality alone, should be between X and Dawn  as this gives us the highest chance of hitting scum blindly imo.

 

given i was a PR claim at the point of this lynch, chances are high i have atleast 1 more scum on my lynch.  

 

Dices vote makes him suspect as well.

 

 

D2 - we have two confirmed on Mynds lynch.  this pretty much singles out Dawn's vote as scum, based on the fact that scum will always have more town on a lynch than scum until LYLO (or a finders claim).  tha chances are also high that one of the non-voters is scum, and its 50/50 where the last scum is (gut says on Mynds lynch though)

 

onca again, this highlights both Dice and Dawn.

 

 

D3 -  we have a scum lynched via finders claim.  this means that scum would consolodate most of their votes on the team mates lynch to use it to look townie (hence Verbs vote).  they woudln't put them all on there, for fear of a vote analyzer ability.

 

this means that atleast one more scum is on Leelou's lynch, and atleast one more scum is not.  this lynch acutlaly gives the least amount of info imo

 

Dawns vote once again sticks out.  why didn't she vote Leelou if the finder had outted leelou at this time?

 

 

D4 - 3 scummies left at this point.  again, they wouldn't consolidate all the votes on one lynch  once again, Dawn and Dices votes stick out the most.  the last is 50/50 between Jack or not voting.

 

 

D5 - this is the most helpful and informative lynch.  we are at LYLO, so scum are more likely to pull thier votes to rush a lynch and throw caution to the wind.  this helps us get a good feel for correctly pinning a persons alignement, based on interaction alone.  and by doing this, use a process of elimination on the previous vote counts to narrow down the scum list.

 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

basing this souly off the previous VC's and interaction today, i'm cmming up with the following logic.

 

known - i'm town.

 

98% probability of being scum - Dawn.

 

Known - Dawns vote is on Dice.  dice is at L-1.  given a highly likely scum is voting for him and he's not hammered yet, theres a high probability that all scum votes are currently on Dice.

 

this defacto clears Dice, Lenlo, & Krak.

 

 

 

New pool of high porbability scum suspects for VC analysis - Tommy, Cloud, & X

 

 

VC analysis results - non conclusive; new suspects all voted together.

 

D5 analysis of context - X is acting the same as in D1 and D2; Tommy and Cloud appear to be acting as a team to get votes off Tommy and to get Dice Lynched.

 

Results - 65% probability of Tommy and Cloud being scum.

 

 

suggested action -

 

 

Lynch Dawn, Tommy and Cloud

 

 

 

##UNVOTE

 

##VOTE TOMMY

 

 

 

i'd prefer to test myself with lynching Dawn to vet my analysis of the VC's, but Tommy is just as good at this point.

[Red2111]

Red, keep reading and then drop your conclusions once you're fully caught up. I'll be observing for a while; sometimes I get better reads by not being the focus of conversation. But if your reads end up being "gut feels" I'll be fairly furious with you because I can't do anything with that but disagree with you. I'm going to argue my viewpoints tonight using in thread evidence rather than vague sentiments and if you are town and intend to win the game with me then I strongly suggest you do the same.

 

generally i woudl wait to get caught up before moving my vote.  but we're at LYLO with the deadline in 35 hours.  i will not be able to read almost 100 pages by then, seeing as i didn't get a chance to read anything at all yesturday. 

[Tommyrod]

Hopefully you realize the problem with your logic, but if not: you just threw out weeks worth of logic and play in one swoop with your "this defacto clears Dice, Lenlo, & Krak." line. It looks like you actually agree with me that Dice is a high scum suspect, so I'll ask you to not foolishly clear him based on the current wagon.

 

Let's try this. I'm town. If you're town, you can't vote for me. What's the best vote for today with that information?

[Tommyrod]

 

 

Red, keep reading and then drop your conclusions once you're fully caught up. I'll be observing for a while; sometimes I get better reads by not being the focus of conversation. But if your reads end up being "gut feels" I'll be fairly furious with you because I can't do anything with that but disagree with you. I'm going to argue my viewpoints tonight using in thread evidence rather than vague sentiments and if you are town and intend to win the game with me then I strongly suggest you do the same.

generally i woudl wait to get caught up before moving my vote. but we're at LYLO with the deadline in 35 hours. i will not be able to read almost 100 pages by then, seeing as i didn't get a chance to read anything at all yesturday.

Fine. But your dangerous leap of logic just now has me scratching my head. I know you aren't the most level headed in the bunch, but jeez. I've seen high wagons discourage correct lynches in the past, but the odds are high that it's a correct lynch, so you can't just dismiss it because of wagonmetrics.