[Basic] Clash of the ancients - Mafia Wins!

[Nolder]

  On 4/20/2014 at 5:32 AM, Darthe said:

And yeah literally.

How did you know?

[Nolder]

  On 4/20/2014 at 5:32 AM, LewisFriendly said:

 

  On 4/20/2014 at 5:27 AM, Nolder said:

 

  On 4/20/2014 at 5:20 AM, LewisFriendly said:

Again, what you said in our QT is irrelevant, but will make for some lolz after the game is over I'm sure. 

 

What are most relevant? The facts. 

 

What will my lynch prove to anyone?  Let's follow that logic for a bit, shall we?

 

Mynd/Lewis flips town, that means that either AJ and Darthe are scum, or they are both scum, or they are both town. 

 

Mynd/Lewis flips scum, that means that either AJ and Darthe are both town, both scum, or one is and one isn't. 

 

In other words, NOTHING!  Only I know for sure that I am town, but that doesn't help the town if I am dead, does it?

 

Now, let's replace me with Dice. 

 

Given these two assumptions:

1)Tress is an uncontested townie vig and

2) that the game would be unbalanced if there are more than one scum on a given QT

 

Dice flips town, that means that the entire Chinese team is town and therefore proving the one player on each team as scum to be false.

 

Dice flips scum, that proves that there is one player on each team that is scum. 

 

Insert everyone on the player list into this pattern and see what you can come up with.

You're leaving out the fact that Tress can shoot someone.

 

 

So you are saying that Tress being a Vig might mean her whole team is town?  What about Nervo being the cop?  Rather convenient that the cop dies on N1.  While it is still an assumption, it is likely that someone on his QT ratted him out. 

 

Funny thing, it is also possible that you are town and overreacted to JackD, who claimed the QTs to be compromised, which sent us all down this rabbit hole, while the real mafia team sits back and laughs at us all. 

 

As a show of good faith, and my firm belief that Dice is the best lynch.

 

##unvote

 

##vote Dicetosser1

 

Unless this game was unbalanced from the start (which it totally is not), Dice will either confirm or disprove the one scum per team theory.

 

No I mean the set of possibilities is: Lynch X, Shoot Y, Mafia kill Z.

You're leaving out Y.

[LewisFriendly]

Stop for a moment and imagine that you are a vanilla townie on a QT with two other players.  You start discussing the game and you are a bit more open about what you believe and such.  Like JackD assumed, you assume that the other two on your QT are town.  Bad assumption, but many of us made it, myself included. 

 

How would you feel if you learned that BOTH of the players you have been opening up to were scum?  Other QTs didn't have any scum on theirs.  How fair would that be to you? 

 

This is why I am sure that this is not the case in this game.  Otherwise, this would be an unfair and totally unbalanced game. 

 

Nolder, for what its worth, I'm worried that you are town and had no idea what your vote on JackD would start.  It irritates me too when people self-vote, especially townies.  I can't imagine how upset I would have been if he was also on my QT.

 

...and yes, its me.  I've been informed that this account and my old one will be merged soon.  I haven't logged into Myndrunner in ages.  I just wanted to see how long I could go before I got figured out.  I did leave some very big clues though.  Watch my siggy and start with Ziggy's shirt. 

[LewisFriendly]

  On 4/20/2014 at 5:35 AM, Nolder said:

No I mean the set of possibilities is: Lynch X, Shoot Y, Mafia kill Z.

You're leaving out Y.

 

 

By that matter, we are also leaving out H.  Safe to assume the mafia are already thinking about H.

 

Suppose that a townie is lynched today, and Tress kills a townie tonight as well as the mafia.  We could be looking at endgame right now. 

[Andrej]

I think this set up is obvious and the way forward is easy.

 

 

  On 4/20/2014 at 5:11 AM, Nolder said:

 

  On 4/20/2014 at 4:22 AM, Andrej said:

Dude I think it's pretty obvious at this point going forward that something funky is going on. The Cop doesn't turn up dead on D2 that often.

It happens all the time.
Have you really never played in a game where cop turned up dead on D2 before?
Sorry but I'm gonna have to pull rank here, if this doesn't seem commonplace to you you haven't played enough mafia yet.

 

Dude this is such BS and you know it lol

 

The Cop dying on N1 is significant and it means something in regards to this game and how the set is made. You talk about pulling rank but you seem to want to ignore this reality.

 

 

I think the way forward is pretty simple. Total number of players we are 15. I disagree with Lewis in thinking that I there is scum in every QT but I do think there is one scum in the majority of QTs. We are broken into 5 groups of 3. If there was 1 mafia in every QT that would equal 10 town v 5 mafia at the very base. Pretty high ratio over all. I think something like 11/4 fits better, which breaks down again to 4 out of the 5 QTs have a mafia member and 1 is all town.

 

All you really need to do is look at each group and decide.

 

 

Romans - Vos (THE COP) is dead so I think one of his two buddies are scum.

 

Chinese - Tress killed Womby which leaves Dice out of those 3. He is either lock scum or not. This is a perfect lynch to confirm some aspect of an unknown set-up.

 

Egyptians - Jack got lynched D1 and Nol HAMMERED him lol. His own QT bro. That's super scummy, I don't care what you say. So yeah, out of Jack, Nol and another I think it's obvious.

 

Vikings - AJ/Mynd/Darthe. I will say that I won't vote either of these two today.

 

Greeks - Len? and two more.

 

 

 

 

 

This is easy people.

[Nolder]

  On 4/20/2014 at 5:40 AM, LewisFriendly said:

Stop for a moment and imagine that you are a vanilla townie on a QT with two other players.  You start discussing the game and you are a bit more open about what you believe and such.  Like JackD assumed, you assume that the other two on your QT are town.  Bad assumption, but many of us made it, myself included. 

 

How would you feel if you learned that BOTH of the players you have been opening up to were scum?  Other QTs didn't have any scum on theirs.  How fair would that be to you? 

 

This is why I am sure that this is not the case in this game.  Otherwise, this would be an unfair and totally unbalanced game.

Well I've never been the best at balance.

I just don't see how that figures into balance one way or another because it's dependent on the players not the roles or mechanics.

We were never confirmed town to each other and that should have been anyone's first big clue that we weren't intended to trust our QT partners.

 

  On 4/20/2014 at 5:40 AM, LewisFriendly said:

Nolder, for what its worth, I'm worried that you are town and had no idea what your vote on JackD would start.  It irritates me too when people self-vote, especially townies.  I can't imagine how upset I would have been if he was also on my QT.

I still don't think my vote was that big of a deal.

 

  On 4/20/2014 at 5:40 AM, LewisFriendly said:

...and yes, its me.  I've been informed that this account and my old one will be merged soon.  I haven't logged into Myndrunner in ages.  I just wanted to see how long I could go before I got figured out.  I did leave some very big clues though.  Watch my siggy and start with Ziggy's shirt.

I don't have signatures enabled lol.

Got tired of all the gifs people put in them.

I like my forums very simple, mostly just text.

 

BTW I'm glad you're around again, I dunno how much time you have/how interested in modding you might be...but I'm still haunted by that Avengers game you ran a few years ago. It'd be awesome if you ran another one for Avengers 2. Seriously that game had the best roles, was awesome.

[Lenlo]

That siggy. You clever bastard. I never noticed that.

[Nolder]

Man I'v got a headache.

I'm gonna pop a couple aspirin and go relax I'll be back later tonight.

[LewisFriendly]

I should have AJ write my stuff form now on.  Makes so much better sense.

 

....and a 5/10 scum/town ratio would have us already at endgame since we've lost 3 townies already. 

[LewisFriendly]

  On 4/20/2014 at 5:52 AM, Nolder said:

BTW I'm glad you're around again, I dunno how much time you have/how interested in modding you might be...but I'm still haunted by that Avengers game you ran a few years ago. It'd be awesome if you ran another one for Avengers 2. Seriously that game had the best roles, was awesome.

 

 

I'm already working on Avengers 2: Age of Ultron.  Since MyndJack is now defunct, I'll have to beg his Modness Verbal the High Exalted One to let me run it here. Thanks though.  I had so much fun modding that game.  I just wished that Deadpool got more play in that game.  I loved writing the Deadpool scenes. 

 

 

  On 4/20/2014 at 5:52 AM, Lenlo said:

That siggy. You clever bastard. I never noticed that.

 

;)  AND my location?

[hazelkrs1]

Holy bejeezus thread exploded. Bout to start audit, will catch up afterwards.

[Lenlo]

I didn't notice that. To clever Mynd. To clever.

[Darthe]

  On 4/20/2014 at 5:34 AM, Nolder said:

 

  On 4/20/2014 at 5:32 AM, Darthe said:

And yeah literally.

How did you know?

 

Picked up on it early and asked him when I replaced in.

 

  On 4/20/2014 at 5:51 AM, Andrej said:

I think this set up is obvious and the way forward is easy.

 

 

  On 4/20/2014 at 5:11 AM, Nolder said:

 

  On 4/20/2014 at 4:22 AM, Andrej said:

Dude I think it's pretty obvious at this point going forward that something funky is going on. The Cop doesn't turn up dead on D2 that often.

It happens all the time.

Have you really never played in a game where cop turned up dead on D2 before?

Sorry but I'm gonna have to pull rank here, if this doesn't seem commonplace to you you haven't played enough mafia yet.

 

Dude this is such BS and you know it lol

 

The Cop dying on N1 is significant and it means something in regards to this game and how the set is made. You talk about pulling rank but you seem to want to ignore this reality.

 

 

I think the way forward is pretty simple. Total number of players we are 15. I disagree with Lewis in thinking that I there is scum in every QT but I do think there is one scum in the majority of QTs. We are broken into 5 groups of 3. If there was 1 mafia in every QT that would equal 10 town v 5 mafia at the very base. Pretty high ratio over all. I think something like 11/4 fits better, which breaks down again to 4 out of the 5 QTs have a mafia member and 1 is all town.

 

All you really need to do is look at each group and decide.

 

 

Romans - Vos (THE COP) is dead so I think one of his two buddies are scum.

 

Chinese - Tress killed Womby which leaves Dice out of those 3. He is either lock scum or not. This is a perfect lynch to confirm some aspect of an unknown set-up.

 

Egyptians - Jack got lynched D1 and Nol HAMMERED him lol. His own QT bro. That's super scummy, I don't care what you say. So yeah, out of Jack, Nol and another I think it's obvious.

 

Vikings - AJ/Mynd/Darthe. I will say that I won't vote either of these two today.

 

Greeks - Len? and two more.

 

 

 

 

 

This is easy people.

Two things.  You're getting the wool pulled over your eyes by Mynd.  I agree that it is way more likely that Nerv was negligent and died for it but that doesn't make it assured.  Gotta remember that mafia probably saw a lot of claims on those QT's so it likely narrowed the pool a fair bit.  As said before, I agree that you're almost certainly right but that isn't the only potential answer.

 

  On 4/20/2014 at 5:53 AM, Nolder said:

Man I'v got a headache.

I'm gonna pop a couple aspirin and go relax I'll be back later tonight.

I spoke about the balance before.  I am great at them, I don't even get mine checked anymore.  All on one team doesn't work as a setup.  Five scum doesn't work.  Four may be the best I can think of.  As to whether it is 2:1:1 or 1:1:1:1 I am not sure but I think that either is possible though the second is more likely.  When mynd flips we will be a scum down.  I've seen him directly lie multiple times on thread then try to shift the meaning of his words later.  

[Darthe]

  On 4/20/2014 at 6:05 AM, Despothera said:

Holy bejeezus thread exploded. Bout to start audit, will catch up afterwards.

Can't wait for this.

[hazelkrs1]

Hold the cow- LEWIS IS MYND????? Holy carp!!!

 

[hazelkrs1]

Just skimmed this page. Isn't that like... not allowed?

[Darthe]

Lol well he didn't know so it should be okay.

[amegakure]

i cant find the y after the M in your siggy so it dosent count! :)

[amegakure]

im literally depriving myself from sleep to see Despo's WOT after all this activity :) 

[amegakure]

if i didnt want you to play age of gods so bad id have you look at it darthe.. The struggle is real :(

[Thane Vakarian]

so... wow... here i thought weekends were quiet.... surprised by what happened last night. 114 notifications to wake up to is not bad. Having said that, here's what i think:

 

I see people talking about older games, but i think it's rather irrelevant. Every game is another one, and every game can be played diffirently.

 

 

  On 4/19/2014 at 11:53 PM, Songstress said:

Funny story.

 

For the first hour of the game I thought I was mafia, because my role PM never actually said the word Town until Amega went back and edited it... so when I went to the Chinese QT and found out Wombat and Dice were my teammates I totally didn't notice that they both told me they were VT.  I was all contemplating setup thinking "3 mafia is way too little for a 15 player game, do you think there are 2 mafia teams or what?" and asked the mods to clarify our win condition, and that's when I found out I was town.

 

I'm the vigilante, and I shot Wombat because he was suggesting in our QT that I shouldn't holster N1 regardless of how good my reads were.  I figured at worst, if he was telling the truth, I'd be shooting a vanilla town and avoiding a blind shot on a possible town power role... and maybe help figure out the setup a bit better.  Best outcome would be that he was mafia.  Go big or go home.

 

If you want to test the theory about the distribution of mafia on the QTs, our third is Dice.  He's also told me he is vanilla town.

.... ? i get the feeling there were better scumreads out there. It would have been better to keep a confirmed townie and take a shot (haha) at getting a mafia. Now, we're down 2 townies, and the way things are going, mafia will be winning. In my opinion, not the best move possible.

 

  On 4/20/2014 at 12:54 AM, LewisFriendly said:

 

  On 4/20/2014 at 12:46 AM, Lenlo said:

 

Augustus wasn't Greek, he's a Roman. I was confused at first cause /I'm/ Greek and Vos wasn't with us.

 

 

DANG *facepalm* Ok.....let's try THIS:

 

Here is the breakdown as I see it so far.  What do you all think?
 
Vikings - AJ, ICE/Darthe, and Lewis
 
Egyptians - JackD, Nolder, and ?????
 
Chinese - Tress, Womby, and Dice
 
Romans - Nervo, ????? and ?????
 
Greeks - Lenlo, ?????, and ?????
 
Not yet claimed affiliation:  Despo, Krak, Dawn, TG, and Thane

 

i will go here and claim Greek, Town. So, the easiest way to find out if there's one scum faction, or if there's scum hidden in a couple of QT's, would be to lynch one of the vikings. I'd feel more comfortable doing this than, for example, lynching dice.

 

This being said:

 

## vote Lewis

 

from the 3 vikings, he feels most scum to me, so would be my prefered lynch.

[Thane Vakarian]

Now, there would be a couple of possibilities here:

 

1) Lewis is scum: Great! one down, 2 to go.

    a) neither AJ nor Darthe ar scum when lynched next: oh boo.... we need to keep looking

    b) either AJ or Darthe are scum: good, we got the majority, too bad fot that one townie

 

2) Lewis is town: oh sheep... scum has been divided over the civilisations, and it'll be harder to find them. If this is the case, then Nolder would be next in line.

 

I too would've liked to hear Jack's explanation for the mafia in every QT, but unfortunately, it wasn't meant to be.

 

(out of character: i'll be away most of the afternoon, but will be back tonight. I'm having fun reading the posts, and got plenty of aspirines against the occasional headache they give me)

[hazelkrs1]

Okay finally caught up.

 

Before I get into all the other stuff, lemme get out my thoughts on the setup/mechanics since they've been brought up (I've been theorizing about what was going on all game, but didn't want to bring it up in D1 because that might have distracted from the scumhunt) and pored over lately. So the way I see it, here are the various possibilities, and my thoughts on how likely they are to be what is going on:

 

1. One of the ancient civilizations is entirely scum, and all other civs are town. This seemed the least likely possibility to me for obvious reasons.

 

2. Each civilization had one scum in it. This also seemed unlikely to me as 5 mafia would be a very high number of scum:town, and also for theme purposes it seemed a little off. This might seem like reaching, but the thing about nations coming together to form a treaty... why would a representative from every single one be scum trying to work against it? I dunno, it just seemed to not make sense to me in my head, but I'm having trouble putting it into words. Basically I figured no matter what, at least one nation would have to benefit for it to work themewise.

 

3. I'll just list this category as "the weird combos" lol. I actually was initially thinking there might be 2 scum in one, 2 in another, and the rest all town, or maybe even two mafia teams of 3 each (in games with multiple mafia teams, it is common for there to be a higher ratio of scum), and I also saw suggestions of 2-1-1 configs, and other stuff. The thing about all these is besides the two mafia teams one, there didn't seem to be any logical rationale behind such a distribution. Oh I could rationalize it with some weird stuff here or there, but even while doing so I realized I was just trying to fit the rationale to make it seem plausible. As for two scum teams, it's possible, and I wouldn't say vastly unlikely, but in a basic game I definitely wouldn't expect it (even tho the QT/civilization mechanic is kind of a big quirk on its own). One other possibility that recently seemed slightly possible to me was 3 mafia, each one in a separate QT, and 2 third party, also in separate QT's. However while that seems balanced, it was pure conjecture and I don't want to give scum the chance to fearmonger about third party that may not exist.

 

4. In the second likeliest possibility, I figured that there would be 1 scum in each QT besides 1. At first I was thinking 3, but that would essentially give town two diff 3 man mason groups, seemed overpowered. Only 1 civilization without scum also makes perfect sense theme wise to me: One nation wants to gain an advantage over the others, so has secretly infiltrated each other nation's assembly to do so. A scum to town ratio of 4:11 isn't unheard of either, especially considering we don't know what powers they may or may not have. There's only one wrinkle to this setup: It seems greatly balanced towards town. It would be extremely easy to vet townies/POE down to scummies this way. You catch one scum in a civilization, and the other two become LOCK CLEAR. You can vet or kill one townie in a QT, and if the other townie is a PR, then you can pretty much confirm the last one as scum. It would just be incredibly easy to take apart the setup this way.

 

Now, I hate to say this, but while I think this setup would be extremely one-sided, I also think it's possible because well, neither mod is extremely experienced in modding games. I could see them not considering some of these wrinkles when making a setup. The thing is, the 1-1-1-1 setup makes so much sense themewise, and I can see Amega and Kaylee feeling it was pretty fair. That being said, what I find most likely is....

 

5. Random distribution. Thing is, every one of these other possibilities are a form of uniform distribution, and well altho it looks purdy from a setup pov, either one would be fairly easy to pick apart or figure out in some way. No matter what, once town figures out the pattern of distribution (which wouldn't really be too difficult to track since the flipped characters pretty much make it easy to figure out what nation/civilization they came from), it becomes easy mode from there and you just POE the scum team to smithereens. And it seriously wouldn't take much tinkering to figure out the pattern of distribution either, if that's all town was concerned with (I'm not theoretical math wiz like some others, but I did already think up a few easy ways to determine distribution). HOWEVER, if the mods put in random distribution, the town would easily think they had found the right pattern of distribution and move forward doing so, just to find out that gaming the setup was a big mistake. This makes the most sense to me, that the mods would set up all these diff QT's to make everyone think there was this huge wrinkle/mechanic to consider, just to have them be somewhat of a red herring (the QT's would still be viable as a scumhunting tool, to match up how people act on thread vs. QT) and have scum sprinkled randomly throughout.

 

This all leads me to my next post...

[hazelkrs1]

Since Lewis is apparently Mynd, I find there to be a VERY low chance he's town this game.

 

First of all, his tone started changing DRASTICALLY right around when Jack was finally being lynched. Didn't seem that odd to me at first, but since it's gotten even weirder. He's jumped all over the place, has had some strange reactions to other people questioning him, and has postured a lot on who he would actually like to lynch today.

 

But all that stuff is relatively minor. The most egregious offense by far has been how he has been trying to lead town into a blunder: He has hammered over and over how if this person flips _____, that we would then find out how the scum were distributed. Like if Dice flipped town, town would learn ______, or if Nol flipped scum, town would know _______.

 

Here's the thing tho. If the scum were randomly distributed across the factions, or one of those funky setups like 2-1-1 or something, town would NOT know for sure the pattern of distribution. There is no way that I can believe that Mynd wouldn't have considered this if he were town. He's one smart cookie, and when it comes to setups he's even better at knowing some of the ins and outs and how diff mechanics might play out. For him to automatically assume a uniformed distribution just seems completely implausible to me.

 

Therefore I think he's trying to lead us on a wild goose chase. It would also be RIGHT up Mynd's alley to try something like that as scum. Moreover, I think I know how he's trying to play us. His posturing around lynching Nolder today has been extremely forced. Them going back and forth to make it seem like Nol didn't know who he was (even tho Darthe had already announced it) was cute, but didn't fool me. And then Mynd swapped his vote to Nol for a sec, but even made it clear he would switch back to Dice while doing so. And he did.

 

He'd also have the most to benefit from this play, if he proposed it and then bussed a teammate, not only would he look golden, but he could also "clear" a teammate as well by saying the distribution is _______, and then become de facto town leader. This is exactly where scum!Mynd wants to be.

 

Also, the evidence against Nol is considerable. I said that one of him or Jack looked like likely scum yesterday, so with Jack flipping town that makes me that much more confident that Nol will flip scum. There's the fact that he had that awful vote on Ice, who turned into Darthe who looks obvtown right now. Voting Jack for the self-vote just adds to the chances that he was trying to mask his meta (first by gunning for inactives, second by voting someone who self-voted). His tone while responding to others has also been severely off lately, he'll seem jumpy and reactionary with one, but then calm and logical with another.

 

As for Dice, not sure exactly how he plays into some of this. On one hand, Tress is pretty much LOCK CLEAR after vigging Wombat and then claiming the shot. Vigging Wombat was a terrible move (he was LOCK CLEAR Tress ) but if Tress was a SK I don't see her claiming the shot instantly (claiming a shot early on as a SK DRASTICALLY reduces your chances of winning). Since they were all from the same faction, it means that if it's a 1-1-1-1 setup, Dice is >>>>rand to be scum. On the other, I haven't personally seen anything that telling from Dice yet and the stuff with Lewis/Mynd def has me confused.

 

For instance- Lewis/Mynd at one point said me, Wombat, and Tress were on a faction together. He later explains that he thought this because of my Anchorman gif, but could it have been a slip? Could Mynd have confused me and Dice for a sec (Des and Dice are pretty similar)? This makes me think Dice could be scum with Mynd, but would Mynd offer up two diff teammates like that? On one hand, it would be great as it would make him look even better, otoh cannibalizing two teammates to make one look better? Doesn't seem likely from Mynd.

 

Blech this is all starting to make my head spin lol.

[hazelkrs1]

Im gonna have to get some sleep and gather my thoughts. I'm putting myself through circles trying to hash this out in my head. Hopefully I'll be able to get a clearer perspective later on. Can't promise I'll post until tomorrow night at work, because of easter stuff and the Spurs playoff game (let's get Timmeh his fifth ring!!!), but when I do I'll tackle the crap out of this mess.

 

Right now I'm leaning towards Lewis/Nolder being scum/scum together.