[Advanced] French Revolution Mafia - Day 3

[Andrej]

Ok enough with the off-topic Occams Razor discussion. Start a new topic if you guys wanna discuss how it relates to mafia, because right now you're just going off topic from what we're here to do.

 

1. Your reasons are only good at face value. You say that you see it as me linking myself to a townie, I say that I see it as you slipping for calling me scum and Hallia town without any kind of flip to justify this. Dead horse or not, it's something I will keep in mind when I look at your play as I'm sure you will with me.

 

2. Yates was able to pick up on what I was getting at, as I was with him when he pointed it out originally. I easily understood that he was referring to your 'dead by D4' thing which was obvious to anyone with it in their role PM considering we were told we died when we ran out of bread and were given 3 pieces.

 

3. For Lily, I'm going to refer you back to my early post where I FoS'd her. Typically, I don't like people that I am suspect of joining a wagon I'm on. I also wasn't exactly thrilled with her post when she joined your wagon. It makes me second guess on the original person gaining votes.

 

4. Your opinion on him is subjective and applies to how you view his posts only. What do you think of him originally voting you btw? You never addressed this that I remember.

 

 

1. Let's go over this again then:

 

If you are town, you don't know Hallia's alignement. You see her agreeing with you in one post, wich might be her being mafia and buddying you. You should know this. And yet you choose to tie yourself to her like you did. Wich is a stupid move if you are town, because if she's mafia it might reflect badly on you, and why would you choose to risk that as town? You are a smarter player than that.

 

If you are both mafia, creating such a strong connection between each other D1 is also a very stupid move. The other part will get heat when/if one of you gets lynched. Again, you are smarter than this. I've just seen you as mafia, and you didn't pull stupid moves like that with your teammates, you were were careful to keep distance from them.

 

If you are mafia and Hallia is town, it makes all the sense in the world for you to tie yourself to her, as I've already explained.

 

So that is why I presumed you to be mafia and Hallia to be town and accused you thus, because the other two scenarios doesn't fit with how I know you as a player.

 

3. You never mentioned second-guessing me before Yates gave you an out to do so.

 

4. Makes sense for Des to vote me originally. He's unusually paranoid when it comes to me. He also did the townie-move of moving his vote onwards as things happened, instead of parking it.

 

First bold: What do you think someone's purpose for off-topic discussion would be?

 

1. I have already explained my reason for saying that I believe Hallia is town. I have not seen anything from her to change my mind otherwise, so there you have it. Believe what you'd like, but I have explained myself and it is up to you to take that at face value or not. I do want to ask though, what makes you think that Hallia is town? Can you show a post or are you just basing this on your theory that I am scum and therefore she is town without any sort of solid evidence?

 

3. My discussion with Yates on your possible 'townslip' is irrelevant to my suspicion of Lily. Also, my suspicion of Lily is what would make me second guess my read on you, not what you have done this game; you earned my vote for a reason. You are mixing up things here. And I wasn't looking for an out, I was considering what he had to say. By now I think it is obvious that all players started with the same amount of bread, so this is a moot point and should be considered null.

 

4. It's almost sad how easily you give him the benefit of the doubt.

 

 

 

 

 

I suppose I should clear up that I did get the bread and starving stuff in my PM, but AJ's post about starving came so soon after dinnertime that it reminded me more of what I'd just eaten for real. I'll check back in tonight.

 

I'm still feeling strongest about Thorum and Peace (in that order of stronger feel first.)

Lol that must've been a good dinner. Are these town or scum reads?

 

Scum reads. On a scale of 1-10, 10 being certain that someone is scum, I would call Thorum a 9 and Peace a 7.

 

 

Can you explain why? I don't know Thorum that well but his posts are logical and make sense to me. I'm also reading Peace as town.

 

Thorum has been quick to hop to my defense. I'm thinking he took note of a player taking some early heat, judged them as a likely D1 lynch, and called them town in order to look good when that player flipped. (Deciding who would be lynched in the first day or two of D1, while lots of people are still in RVS, is odd in itself.) Peace has seemed opportunistic in his following the train on me.

 

 

I'm not really seeing it that way. Peace I think is pretty solidly town because of his attack on you. If he were scum he would know that bread was mentioned in his PM and likely wouldn't target you for something like that. Fair point on Thorum though, something to consider.

 

 

I hope you're Modkilled.

 

Srsly.

[Andrej]

unvote vote Des

 

I admit this is mostly gut but I am not getting a good-townie vibe from him this game. This off-topic rant that flooded the thread last night are pretty much the deal-breaker for me. Who cares about your theory of Occam's Razor? There's no need for you to fill the thread with it when you could've been discussing the game, or more importantly, pressuring me since I am 'obvscum' according to you. Looking back at some of our interactions, some of the things he has said don't exactly add up. His voting record is poor and if you go back to look at his posts around the time Mish's wagon was gaining traction you will see him flailing to redirect traffic (idk why he is so focused on Peace, Yates and Basel ftr) then later joining onto her train while also pointing a scummy finger in all other directions. "If Mish is town, I'm gonna look hard at Lily and AJ" etc.

 

I'd like to direct you to another game that I spectated not too long ago where Despo was scum... and you guessed it: flooded the thread with off-topic discussions and set-up spec. http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/84403-greek-mythology-man-vs-gods-advanced-game-over-town-wins/?p=3017889

[LilyElizabeth]

Andrej, that vote just gave me a solid town read on you. If you were scum, you wouldn't have an issue with distracting posts. 

[dapianoplay3r]

MOD SPEAK

 

KRAK IS REPLACING WOMBAT

[Yates]

I'd like to direct you to another game that I spectated not too long ago where Despo was scum... and you guessed it: flooded the thread with off-topic discussions and set-up spec.

I'll bite.

 

Unvote

Vote: Des

[LilyElizabeth]

Welcome Krak!

[peacesells]

 

How about everything else that's been going on, Basel? What's your opinon on myself, Des, AJ, Lily, Yates, Golden...?

I'm going to need to do some ISO readings for that, which I've been holding off on doing while Cindy is here so I can spend time with her. (ISOing multiple peeps takes a ridiculously long time.) I should be able to get to that later on today.

 

On the "town slip". It's a null tell. The wiki article the mod provided states all players start with 3 loaves.

 

So I don't think her statement is an identifiable remark either way.

Why are you so quick to assume that Dap has designed this game to be exactly how the baker role works on the wiki, without making his own modifications? The wiki article says that all players have three loaves, but that doesn't mean that all players in this game have three loaves. (For the record, I have three loaves.)

 

 

2 reasons.  For one, it matches my role pm.  And two, it apparently matches several others.   And, the mod said "almost exactly" with the difference being the famine starts immediately.

[Basel Gill]

Basel... Why make a statement like that and then immediately try to clear yourself from it?

 

Edit: phone posting

 

 

AJ: since you didn't include a quote from me, I am left to guess at what statement of mine you are talking about. Are you referring to when I asked Peace why he is taking it for granted that this game gives everyone three loaves of bread? Why do you read this as me trying to clear myself from it? Because that doesn't even remotely follow from what I said.

 

All I know for a certainty is that I have three pieces of bread. I have no direct knowledge of what anyone else has. Some people have claimed to have three pieces of bread. This doesn't mean they are telling the truth. Others have yet to say anything about how many pieces they have. So to see that the wiki article about the baker role says all players start with three doesn't mean that to be true in the case of this game. How many games have you seen where a role has a non-standard variation aside from what is considered normal on a wiki?

[Basel Gill]

2 reasons.  For one, it matches my role pm.  And two, it apparently matches several others.   And, the mod said "almost exactly" with the difference being the famine starts immediately.

Again, what people say they have on-thread doesn't necessarily match what they have for real. I wonder if you're so set on this assumption because you, or one of your scummates, has more than three breads and you want to keep that hidden.

[Andrej]

 

Basel... Why make a statement like that and then immediately try to clear yourself from it?

 

Edit: phone posting

 

 

AJ: since you didn't include a quote from me, I am left to guess at what statement of mine you are talking about. Are you referring to when I asked Peace why he is taking it for granted that this game gives everyone three loaves of bread? Why do you read this as me trying to clear myself from it? Because that doesn't even remotely follow from what I said.

 

All I know for a certainty is that I have three pieces of bread. I have no direct knowledge of what anyone else has. Some people have claimed to have three pieces of bread. This doesn't mean they are telling the truth. Others have yet to say anything about how many pieces they have. So to see that the wiki article about the baker role says all players start with three doesn't mean that to be true in the case of this game. How many games have you seen where a role has a non-standard variation aside from what is considered normal on a wiki?

 

 

Yes, that was the quote I'm talking about. I was phone posting which is why I didn't quote your post.

 

My question was directed to how you asked Peace why he would assume that having 3 loaves of bread is the norm (which it appears to be) and then immediately you following that with saying you have 3 pieces as well. Just struck me as odd.

 

I agree that it's possible that some people could be lying, and although not everyone has verified or at least stated they have the same amount it is probably the safe assumption at this point.

[hazelkrs1]

Lovely. DM keeps trying to eat my post. Let's try this again.

 

@ mafia trying to make a late push to get me lynched. How funny that AJ and Yates, two people Ive suspected as scum for a while, both move their vote to me after trying to make me look bad because of OT discussion.

 

Here's the thing. I will touch on off topic subjects occasionally no matter what my alignment. I get bored posting at night when so many others aren't, and will often occupy myself with some random subject if I feel like it. That being said, Ive contributed more to gameplay and the scumhunt than most in this game.

 

Furthermore, Yates voting me after AJ talking about me going OT is gross, considering that not only did he participate in the Occam's Razor talk himself, it can be said he was the one who actually tried to derail the thread with the discussion. He mentioned OR. I said it was dumb to use that in mafia, that's it. He then responded and opened the discussion about it. I took the bait cause its hard for me to let soneone else get the last word about something (also pretty much anytime it comes up in mafia I usually end up ranting about it, anyone is free to go back and look)

 

I also don't like Lily all of a sudden lauding AJ as town because he said he didnt like OT discussion... after a few other people had already said the same thing. Obviously it would be the easiest thing in the world for a scummie to agree with something a couple of other people said to try and gain town cred. Lily would realize this as she's a very smart player, so my suspicion is that she was trying to make a teammate look good.

 

Basel is also pinging me again with his first trying to float the idea of peeps having diff number of loaves naturally, then immediately quipping that he has 3 as well. That stunk.

 

Yo Krak.

 

Vote AJ if you like scum day 1 lynches.

[michellem]

 

Ok enough with the off-topic Occams Razor discussion. Start a new topic if you guys wanna discuss how it relates to mafia, because right now you're just going off topic from what we're here to do.

 

1. Your reasons are only good at face value. You say that you see it as me linking myself to a townie, I say that I see it as you slipping for calling me scum and Hallia town without any kind of flip to justify this. Dead horse or not, it's something I will keep in mind when I look at your play as I'm sure you will with me.

 

2. Yates was able to pick up on what I was getting at, as I was with him when he pointed it out originally. I easily understood that he was referring to your 'dead by D4' thing which was obvious to anyone with it in their role PM considering we were told we died when we ran out of bread and were given 3 pieces.

 

3. For Lily, I'm going to refer you back to my early post where I FoS'd her. Typically, I don't like people that I am suspect of joining a wagon I'm on. I also wasn't exactly thrilled with her post when she joined your wagon. It makes me second guess on the original person gaining votes.

 

4. Your opinion on him is subjective and applies to how you view his posts only. What do you think of him originally voting you btw? You never addressed this that I remember.

 

 

1. Let's go over this again then:

 

If you are town, you don't know Hallia's alignement. You see her agreeing with you in one post, wich might be her being mafia and buddying you. You should know this. And yet you choose to tie yourself to her like you did. Wich is a stupid move if you are town, because if she's mafia it might reflect badly on you, and why would you choose to risk that as town? You are a smarter player than that.

 

If you are both mafia, creating such a strong connection between each other D1 is also a very stupid move. The other part will get heat when/if one of you gets lynched. Again, you are smarter than this. I've just seen you as mafia, and you didn't pull stupid moves like that with your teammates, you were were careful to keep distance from them.

 

If you are mafia and Hallia is town, it makes all the sense in the world for you to tie yourself to her, as I've already explained.

 

So that is why I presumed you to be mafia and Hallia to be town and accused you thus, because the other two scenarios doesn't fit with how I know you as a player.

 

3. You never mentioned second-guessing me before Yates gave you an out to do so.

 

4. Makes sense for Des to vote me originally. He's unusually paranoid when it comes to me. He also did the townie-move of moving his vote onwards as things happened, instead of parking it.

 

First bold: What do you think someone's purpose for off-topic discussion would be?

 

1. I have already explained my reason for saying that I believe Hallia is town. I have not seen anything from her to change my mind otherwise, so there you have it. Believe what you'd like, but I have explained myself and it is up to you to take that at face value or not. I do want to ask though, what makes you think that Hallia is town? Can you show a post or are you just basing this on your theory that I am scum and therefore she is town without any sort of solid evidence?

 

3. My discussion with Yates on your possible 'townslip' is irrelevant to my suspicion of Lily. Also, my suspicion of Lily is what would make me second guess my read on you, not what you have done this game; you earned my vote for a reason. You are mixing up things here. And I wasn't looking for an out, I was considering what he had to say. By now I think it is obvious that all players started with the same amount of bread, so this is a moot point and should be considered null.

 

4. It's almost sad how easily you give him the benefit of the doubt.

 

 

1. I have no idea what Hallia's alignement are, my vote and accusation on you was based on your actions, and the different scenarios for why you would have chosen to do as you did... As I've already shown you, I cannot see why you would have done that unless you were mafia and she town. Why is this so hard for you to explain?

 

3. I'm lost here honestly.

 

4. I cannot read Des early in games, but so far my gut said town. This is about to change and I'll elaborate in my next post.

 

 

I'm still getting a mafia vibe from Mish and Basel. (I take a lot of heat for being an instinctive, rather than a logical, player, but that's what I feel.)

 

I can go either way on Des and Yates. Ishy, too, for that matter. 

 

And guys, the WOTs are bad enough, but when they aren't even game related, that's way too much. Didn't read. Don't care. Please don't. Thx. 

 

I don't mind gut players; I'm a mixture myself. But it would be nice with at least something resembling a reason from you on your reads on me and Basel... You originally voted me for the way I voted AJ, a lot has happened since and a lot of posts has been written. You haven't said a word about Basel before AFAIR and you haven't said what you think of my later posts. Except for trying to blame my RL on your problems to read me.

 

This post is a bunch of wishy-washy fluffstuff. Nothing of proper substance here. Where's all the people who was voting me over a wishy-washy post and a "weak" vote? You should look here, it's a good target for your next vote.

[michellem]

Lovely. DM keeps trying to eat my post. Let's try this again.

 

@ mafia trying to make a late push to get me lynched. How funny that AJ and Yates, two people Ive suspected as scum for a while, both move their vote to me after trying to make me look bad because of OT discussion.

 

Here's the thing. I will touch on off topic subjects occasionally no matter what my alignment. I get bored posting at night when so many others aren't, and will often occupy myself with some random subject if I feel like it. That being said, Ive contributed more to gameplay and the scumhunt than most in this game.

 

Furthermore, Yates voting me after AJ talking about me going OT is gross, considering that not only did he participate in the Occam's Razor talk himself, it can be said he was the one who actually tried to derail the thread with the discussion. He mentioned OR. I said it was dumb to use that in mafia, that's it. He then responded and opened the discussion about it. I took the bait cause its hard for me to let soneone else get the last word about something (also pretty much anytime it comes up in mafia I usually end up ranting about it, anyone is free to go back and look)

 

I also don't like Lily all of a sudden lauding AJ as town because he said he didnt like OT discussion... after a few other people had already said the same thing. Obviously it would be the easiest thing in the world for a scummie to agree with something a couple of other people said to try and gain town cred. Lily would realize this as she's a very smart player, so my suspicion is that she was trying to make a teammate look good.

 

Basel is also pinging me again with his first trying to float the idea of peeps having diff number of loaves naturally, then immediately quipping that he has 3 as well. That stunk.

 

Yo Krak.

 

Vote AJ if you like scum day 1 lynches.

 

This post is so much BS Des. Now suddenly Yates is a suspect for you? He was the one who stalled my train quite effeicently, so unless you think me and Yates are mafia together; why suddenly suspect him? My lynch was building nicely and the mafia could have sat back and relaxed. This doesn't make sense. I don't even buy the "looking for town cred" angle on that one.

[Andrej]

Des, you are lacking conviction there.

 

So let me get this straight... I am mafia with Yates and Lily?

 

But you're also suspect of Basel.

 

And do you really want to go down this road of who started the OT discussion? Really? REALLY?

 

Hallia mentioned she should look it up. Yates provided a link. You then came in with your long ramble about how it shouldn't apply to mafia games, which then sparked Yates and Peace commenting on it.

 

Tell you what... if you so strongly believe that I am mafia, why don't you go back and do one of those ISOs you're so famous for to prove your point?

[Andrej]

Matter of fact... I'll do one myself on you just to show where my gut feeling comes from. I have pointed out several times this game how come of your actions are giving me bad vibes. It started early with your 'he mentioned being hungry TWICE ANDDDD used a smiley' he must be scum.

[hazelkrs1]

@Mish: Wth? I didn't "suddenly" start suspecting Yates. He was one of my earliest suspects, and I had my vote on him before I moved it to you

[Andrej]

1. I have no idea what Hallia's alignement are, my vote and accusation on you was based on your actions, and the different scenarios for why you would have chosen to do as you did... As I've already shown you, I cannot see why you would have done that unless you were mafia and she town. Why is this so hard for you to explain?

 

1. You already answered my question in the prior post to me asking your read on Hallia, I missed it. My bad. I understand where you are coming from, but I also still think it's a reach seeing as how you don't have any solid evidence to make such an associative connection.

[michellem]

@Mish: Wth? I didn't "suddenly" start suspecting Yates. He was one of my earliest suspects, and I had my vote on him before I moved it to you

 

So how do you explain his actions when it comes to me then? You completly overlooked that part of my post.

[peacesells]

 

2 reasons.  For one, it matches my role pm.  And two, it apparently matches several others.   And, the mod said "almost exactly" with the difference being the famine starts immediately.

Again, what people say they have on-thread doesn't necessarily match what they have for real. I wonder if you're so set on this assumption because you, or one of your scummates, has more than three breads and you want to keep that hidden.

 

 

I had more than 1 reason.  Why are you ignoring the other?  It is more likely than not that everyone started with 3.  Sure..there is probably a 10% chance it not happening that way.  Nothing is absolute.

 

So..why are you pushing this angle?  Is that the best you got on me?

[Yates]

 

@Mish: Wth? I didn't "suddenly" start suspecting Yates. He was one of my earliest suspects, and I had my vote on him before I moved it to you

 

So how do you explain his actions when it comes to me then? You completly overlooked that part of my post.

 

And the fact that me [his supposed scum read] claiming to see a Town slip is what got him to unvote you.  How did that happen?

 

Also, Des, you baited ME into it.  I'm the one that said "Point taken.  Moving on."  And that's at least the 2nd time I had to say that to you, iirc.

[hazelkrs1]

Nice try AJ. Here's where I originally responded to Yates use of Occam's Razor. I don't get all long winded, just state that I think it's dumb.

 

 

Occam's razor, dude. I voted the way I voted for exactly the reason I said I voted it.

 

1. Occam's razor is a dumb concept to use in mafia. It's generally a good idea not to make too many assumptions, but figuring out who the mafia could be is rarely a simple solution..

After this is when Yates challenged me on it again and I eventually responded as I did.

 

Looking forward to your wot on me

 

Always nice to see a scum team overextend themselves early. AJ, Yates, Lily, Basel. Solid chance of finding multiple scum within that group. Prob some lurking scum as well. Town reads on Mish, Golden, Peace, and ... that's it for now.

[Andrej]

 

Also, I keep seeing 'Occam's Razor' pop up in games, I should probably go google that to see what it is.

Please do.

 

 

 

Just know that there are two definitions you'll generally see for Occam's Razor- one wrong and one right.

 

The one often quoted and referenced is "All things being equal, the simplest answer tends to be the correct one", which is actually a misrepresentation of the theorem. I've been yelled at with cries of "semantics!" time and time again, but I care not for I genuinely believe the theorem is used incorrectly far too often.

 

The accurate definition of the theorem is "Among competing hypotheses, the hypothesis that makes the fewest assumptions should be the one selected". The reason this makes sense is that when you are trying to create a proof of something, you want to use whichever methods have the least bit of variable to them. It's much easier to "vet" a theory if there are less "what ifs" that can make the results of the study or experiment go askew.

 

Here's another part of the problem- it is probably most often referenced nowadays in situations like philosophical discussions, or debates, or detective novels and such. But that's not what the theorem was created for- it was created for use by mathematicians and statisticians. It honestly isn't really that effective when dealing with trying to solve some kind of puzzle, as some of the biggest and most groundbreaking ideas used in the modern world came from making giant leaps of faith (for instance Einstein's Relativity).

 

As far as in mafia, I think it's even less applicable. A game that at it's roots revolves around deception uses theorems like Occam's Razor and completely flips them on their heads. Finding the hidden scum often requires going through several different assumption about possible connections and ploys and miriads of potential scenarios. Trying to always go for the simplest explanation would be trying to reduce the game to something simple itself, which it is not.

 

Granted, it's still important not to make too many assumptions, as you can build your whole theory of who the scum might be on a house of cards that can all fall down with the wrong flip, so it's important to be open-minded. But at the end of the day, most lynches aren't determined by a very exact science, it has more to do with a number of complex interactions between a number of players. So looking for any and all connections between players is still important, and thinking ahead to how someone's flip might change things is an important part of the info-gathering stage in mafia games.

 

Lol... you wanna try again? Check those timestamps big dog. Like I said: Hallia mentioned it, Yates linked it, and then you started this garbage ramble.

[John E. Kelley]

AJ, reading comprehension is crucial.

 

*facepalm*

[Andrej]

Love your contribution Ishy.

 

Explain where I am wrong then? Despo shows some quotes about 10 hours prior to what I am talking about. He says that he ended the discussion there. Later when Yates linked Hallia he went on to give his own personal take on the matter. Unprompted, and further more, unneeded.

 

Instead of trying to show town (although he claims to be scum hunting) that I am mafia, he would rather debate on OR theory and whether Hallia's posts are improving.

[Yates]

AJ, reading comprehension is crucial.

 

*facepalm*

What is this in regards to?  Our current conversation on Des baiting me on OR?  Because AJ is 100% correct in that regard.