[Basic] Christmas Mentors & Maffia

[Blackhoof]

The fact Hoof hasn't been hammered yet is promising. 

 

The mafia very well might all be on my train already. Peace, you and Cloud.... maybe peace, but I do not think you or Cloud.

[_CLOUD]

Fair enough but that isn't what you were saying a page ago. You were saying that you were going with Blackhoof because "everyone else" was.

 

 

Also interaction like that doesn't always have to be staged.

I could (but wont) name at least one game where I was very legitimately annoyed with my scummates.

I don't remember if that translated into on thread arguing or not but that's besides the point really.

 

I think you misunderstood me. I said that my scum reads were Via and Hoof, but because the majority wants to lynch Hoof today I will also vote for him instead of starting a train on Via. I could go for either one of the two.

[_CLOUD]

I hardly doubt teammates would get annoyed at each other right at the start of the game, but yes if I would to exclude Peace's play from Day 1 and only focus what he said during Day 2 then I would have certainly considered voting for him. You do have a good case against him, but I just don't think he is mafia, especially when Hoof and Via are still alive.

[Nolder]

Well. Bah then.

 

If it is just a choice, to you, between Blackhoof and Via I prefer Via.

I'm not ready to compromise and vote her yet though.

If Hoof decides to finally, you know, play to his win condition and try to lynch mafia instead of sit around waiting to die and if BFG can be convinced we can make a tie train.

Which would leave Via as the tie breaking vote. Which would actually be telling I think and actually useful in more ways than one.

 

If on the other hand we (BFG, Blackhoof, and I) form a train on Via she obviously wont hammer herself so that leaves her with just Blackhoof.

Less telling and less useful of a choice. That is unless you switch and vote for her first.

 

If it's an option between those two courses...I guess I prefer the first one.

But I don't mean to present a false dilemma, there are certainly other options depending on what everyone is willing to do.

I just see these two as the most likely given your stance right now. The obvious third option is for BFG or Via to just hammer Hoof.

[Tommyrod]

Well. Bah then.

 

If it is just a choice, to you, between Blackhoof and Via I prefer Via.

I'm not ready to compromise and vote her yet though.

If Hoof decides to finally, you know, play to his win condition and try to lynch mafia instead of sit around waiting to die and if BFG can be convinced we can make a tie train.

Which would leave Via as the tie breaking vote. Which would actually be telling I think and actually useful in more ways than one.

 

If on the other hand we (BFG, Blackhoof, and I) form a train on Via she obviously wont hammer herself so that leaves her with just Blackhoof.

Less telling and less useful of a choice. That is unless you switch and vote for her first.

 

If it's an option between those two courses...I guess I prefer the first one.

But I don't mean to present a false dilemma, there are certainly other options depending on what everyone is willing to do.

I just see these two as the most likely given your stance right now. The obvious third option is for BFG or Via to just hammer Hoof.

Does anyone else prefer Via to Hoof? I feel good that they are both scum, and if my personal theory is correct, Via would be the more important wolf.

[csarmi]

Vote Count 4.3

 

Hoof (3) - Peace, Tommy, Cloud

Peace (1) - Nolder

 

Not Voting: BFG, Via, Hoof

 

4 to lynch.

Deadline in 10h 26 minutes.

Timer: Deadline-D4

[BFG]

Hoof @1626 - so which is it? Are all the mafia on your train or not? 2 names that you think are mafia or 4 names you think are town... and why! If you think either Via or Holder are mafia why haven't they hammered you yet?

 

I'm out for a few hours, but will be voting tonight.

 

For now, Hoof and Via are coming across the worst, Hoof because getting reads out of him shouldn't be so hard, on the other hand he was similar when Town in Settlers, Via I had an early town read on, her catch up posts from Day 1 were pretty much all things I noticed, but Day 2 onwards seems to have disappeared. But I'm wary of Cloud as his reads don't seem to have changed since Day 2, despite one not turning out as he thought (and was so confident of). I'm wary of Tommy as I think he could probably fool me very easily and I'm wary of Peace because I think Nolders case has merit.

[Nolder]

Wow I thought we had more time for some reason.

I guess we need to settle this ASAP, no time to drag it out.

 

I think I would rather risk a no lynch than lynching Hoof.

I guess I'm more sure of him than I thought I was when put on the spot.

That leaves BFG or Via to hammer. If you guys AREN'T willing to hammer then you either need to join the Peace train or start a new one right away.

We don't have time to fiddle around anymore with hemming and hawing. It's voting time.

[Tommyrod]

BFG your post made me laugh. Although paranoia is probably safer than being foolhardy and wrong, I also think some people are far less likely to be scum than others. So it's a balancing act, attempting to answer the question: what's most likely?

 

Nolder are you taking a hard town stance on Hoof right now...?

[Elaevia]

quick thought: won't be home for another couple hours so it will have to be quick!

 

this is the second time tommy has suggested my lynch, with less than 12hours to deadline and no votes on me already.

 

this means he is either town trying to find consensios, or mafia trying desperately to get me lynched. thinking of the roles revealed already I have a hard time mafia beleiving I had a juicy role so its not that.

 

if tommy were mafia this course would also draw attention to himself and the person who was almost lynched.so not worth doing unless really important.

[Tommyrod]

I'll just out what I'm thinking and see what you all think of my theory.

 

Via is the mafia Roleblocker. Mafia RB balances out the game and Via fits the bill because she has been the quietest and least controversial of the mafia suspects because she has to survive until endgame. It explains the odd kill choices of Turin and Leelou; mafia wanted to avoid doc protect targets like BFG and probably went hunting for the doc instead. Once Nolder outed himself he became dead weight essentially, and with mafia RB alive they can just shut him down and kill confirmed townies before killing him (or if he gets himself lynched for being insane, even better).

 

Thoughts? I think yes.

[Tommyrod]

quick thought: won't be home for another couple hours so it will have to be quick!

this is the second time tommy has suggested my lynch, with less than 12hours to deadline and no votes on me already.

this means he is either town trying to find consensios, or mafia trying desperately to get me lynched. thinking of the roles revealed already I have a hard time mafia beleiving I had a juicy role so its not that.

if tommy were mafia this course would also draw attention to himself and the person who was almost lynched.so not worth doing unless really important.

This generic sus attempt post cutting right before mine, combined with a lack of a hammer vote on Hoof, makes my theory look even sweeter. Keke!

[Elaevia]

following on.... (posting in chuncks due to dodgy mobile internet)

 

I think we get quite a bit of info from seeing hoofs allignment and role,

namely i think both tommy and hoof are both town or both mafia

[Elaevia]

you need to read the two together

[Tommyrod]

following on.... (posting in chuncks due to dodgy mobile internet)

I think we get quite a bit of info from seeing hoofs allignment and role,

namely i think both tommy and hoof are both town or both mafia

Linking me to hoof now? Nice.

[csarmi]

You're in AJ's hand. I might be back 1h before deadline.

[Andrej]

 

Deadline in about 9.5 hours

[csarmi]

:myrdraal:

[Nolder]

Nolder are you taking a hard town stance on Hoof right now...?

Yeah, I think I have to.

If I'm wrong I'm wrong and I'll face up to that after the game.

Wouldn't be the first time.

[Nolder]

I'll just out what I'm thinking and see what you all think of my theory.

 

Via is the mafia Roleblocker. Mafia RB balances out the game and Via fits the bill because she has been the quietest and least controversial of the mafia suspects because she has to survive until endgame. It explains the odd kill choices of Turin and Leelou; mafia wanted to avoid doc protect targets like BFG and probably went hunting for the doc instead. Once Nolder outed himself he became dead weight essentially, and with mafia RB alive they can just shut him down and kill confirmed townies before killing him (or if he gets himself lynched for being insane, even better).

 

Thoughts? I think yes.

RBer would make sense I guess. Much more so than the setup currently does anyway.

I didn't want to give mafia any clues to help them read but I will confirm I wasn't on Key last night so I guess I wouldn't know if I was blocked or not.

[Elaevia]

@ tommy, I don't think ninjaing is really a scum tell.

 

re roleblocker. I agree that once nokder revealed mafia would have blocked him to give them free reighn to kill. its not me though, and its just theory that they even have one - though I agree it would seemreasonable

[Nolder]

Guys my sleep has been horrendous that past few days and it's not getting any better by deadline.

I'm afraid I might crash before the deadline so if you have any questions for me or want any input I need to do it within the next couple hours to be on the safe side.

[Elaevia]

Thinking back to my previous reasoning on Tommy (that he could have hammered Nolder but instead moved on to Golden on day 1) I still agree with myself very strongly there - so moving Tommy back to the 'town' pile for me.

 

Am rethinking now re implications about hoof and other players

[peacesells]

I don't buy the RB theory Tommy.  It's a bad choice for scum to make.   Using that reasoning they'd be taking the risk of their role blocker getting lynched and then having no way to deal with Nolder.

 

If there is a scum role blocker, Nolder would be dead now.  Then it wouldn't matter which scum member got lynched.

[peacesells]

Hoof or Cloud are my suspects.