[Basic] Christmas Mentors & Maffia

[csarmi]

Just a quick reminder. You are allowed to edit posts (as long as you use it for formatting purposes, for correcting typos and obvious mistakes).

[Blackhoof]

 

 

Interesting.

 

This definitely casts Tommy and Cloud in a bad light, but I think that they were just mistaken. Like I said, town on town violence. In fact the mafia did us a favour by NK'ing turin- it removes that distracting fight, which Turin seemed to be losing anyway.

 

As my second scum suspect, however, I will vote nolder

 

##Vote nolder

 

 

 

Why

 

 

Because they were some of the biggest ones going after him.

[_CLOUD]

 

 

Via, Krak and Hoof are mafia. If the game is still going on then Effie is too.

 

/game

You can scrap Effie of that list because we only have 4 mafia. There is also a third party out there though.

 

Do you think in a game of 14 there will be 4 mafia and a third party?

 

Why are you so sure there are 4 mafia? with a third party player it would seem more like there would be 3 mafia.

 

Why are you so certain there is a third party?

 

If there is how can you conclude so strongly on the townies?

 

The joy of third party is being able to really scumhunt, especially a survivor. they would want to be as "town" as possible

 

I will go back and look at your post now cloud

 

You made several good points in this post, Turin. I admit that I got a little carried away while analyzing all the votes after Golden’s lynch yesterday and ran up to certain problems, like the number of mafia’s in the game and my reads of certain players. I thought that there were 4 mafia’s after dividing 14 by 4. You are most likely right that if there is a Survivor in the game then there will likely be only 3 mafia’s, and if there is a Serial Killer 4 mafia’s. I do believe that there is a third party in the game because of the simple reason that Salami designed two third party roles with some special abilities, and I don’t think he would have gone to such extent just to expand his list of potential roles that can be found in the game. I have never modded a game before, but I find the chances of two third-party roles in a 14 player basic game very unlikely.

 

After analyzing all the votes a second time I came to a revised version of my theory. You can find my analysis of all the recent votes under the spoiler tags. If you don’t like going through all the votes I have also written a summary:

 

Tom is town because he chose to vote for Golden instead of Nolder, and Golden said that if Nolder would flip town he would look at Tom. I believe he was trying to set up Tom’s lynch and this also one of the reasons that I believe Nolder is town. I also had a town read on Tom because of his play during Day 1 and I agreed with a lot of his reads.

 

Nolder is town because he was the counter-train on Golden and it went too fast for him to also be mafia. I also don’t see a mafia Nolder trying to start a Theo train one hour before the deadline because such a move would attract too much attention if he knew that Golden was the most likely one to have gotten lynched.

 

Turin is town because he also chose to vote for Golden instead of Nolder.

 

Hallia is town because of her vote switching from Golden to Nolder, to Krak, and then finally back again to Golden. I have also gotten town vibes from her during these last few pages.

 

Leelou is probably town because of her vote on Golden that made the scales flip in Nolder’s favor. I have to admit that I don’t know if Leelou is someone who would safe herself by bussing her teammate, or take the risk and try to safe him instead. I got a town read on her during Day 1 so that also makes me feel better about her.

 

Peace is town because he was the first to vote for Golden and he left his vote on him while being active the whole time.

 

Theo is probably town due to the same reason as Peace, but she disappeared so it could have also been a blunder. I don’t see her voting for a teammate straight out of the gate though.

 

Effie is town because of her play on Day 1, and while she wasn’t active before the deadline where all the vote switching happened she did end up hammering Nolder. Any hammer from someone who hasn’t been around until then would have seemed suspicious so I will just focus on her play instead of her vote placement.

 

I’m not sure about Blackhoof. I found him more scummy when I cased him, and since then his play has improved and he appeared suspicious of both Golden and Nolder. I can’t blame him for that because I felt the same during that stage of the game. I could go either way on him.

 

 

This leaves Krak and Via as my two mafia suspects.

 

I think Krak is mafia because of his play and because he wasn’t voting for anyone which is really bad.

 

I think Via is also mafia because of her interactions with Golden which seemed iffy to me, but she was the third person to vote for Golden which does make her look a little better.

 

 

 

 

Hmmmm ok, Cloud has convinced me. I have done a bit of rereading and I have revised my opinion on him.

 

Still do not like Peace one bit.

 

Golden is also sticking out, with that terrible vote on via, who defended herself well imo. I didn't like how he then retracted it, stating that it was out of spite anyway- we have less than a day until deadline, and you were voting out of spite? He is being far too emotional, and I do not like that one bit. All his play has been heavily emotional.

 

Nolder is pinging me increasingly. Don't blame him for not reading the thread- goodness knows there is a lot, and I am having trouble making informed posts ahaha. However I don't like any of the votes on Hallia, especially not his. She has been inactive largely, think she gave a good reason, or was that someone else? More info would be secured from another lynch. Note how he votes hallia, who has posted rrlatively little, while after dozens of posts from other players he stated this:

 

 

 

 

 

As for scumreads.

I'm reluctant to narrow my focus to just three people right now, it's too early in the game for that.

Especially given that so many people have barely posted.

If I've noticed something off or wrong or whatever I've called people on it.

Nothing has been held back thus far so what you've seen is what you get.

 

I will say that out of everyone Krak has been the only one to give me a town vibe thus far.

 

Nope, don't like it. Would gladly move my vote to either Golden or Nolder, since the Peace train isn't going anywhere. I think Nolder.

##unvote

##vote nolder

 

 

As for Turin, I am uncertain, but leaning town. His arguments and logic are quite sound to my ears. I think that it is a case of town on town violence.

 

Here is Blackhoof’s vote on Nolder. He is suspicious of both Nolder and Golden, but ends up voting for Golden. I actually don’t find the placement of his vote as suspicious as I did yesterday.

 

 

VoteCount Day01#15

 

 

01 - Peace: -> Elf -> Golden

02 - Cloud: -> Elf -> Turin -> Hoof -> Turin -> Nolder

03 - Krak: -> Cloud -> Hoof -> NULL

04 - GoldenEyes: -> Elf -> Via -> NULL

05 - TommyRod: -> Peace -> Turin -> Hoof -> NULL -> Nolder -> Hally

06 - Leelou: -> Nolder -> Hally

07 - Theodora: -> Golden

08 - Elffern: -> Peace -> NULL -> Nolder

09 - Hally: -> Golden -> Nolder

10 - BFG: -> Golden -> NULL -> Nolder

11 - Via: -> Golden

12 - Nolder: -> Hally

13 - BlackHoof: -> Peace -> Nolder

14 - Turin: -> Tommy -> NULL -> Krak

 

 

 

Golden - 3 - Peace, Thea, Via

Hally - 3 - Nolder, Leelou, Tommy

Nolder - 5 - BFG, Elf, Hally, Hoof, Cloud

Krak - 1 - Turin

 

Not voting: Krak, Golden

8 to lynch.

Deadline: 2013-12-29, 20:00 GMT

Countdown: http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20131229T21&p0=50&msg=ChristmasMM-D1

 

In 6 hours and 32 minutes.

The latest VC before people start to switch trains. Peace, Theo and Via are on Golden while BFG, Effie, Hally, Hoof and me are on Nolder. Nolder, Leelou and Tom are currently voting for Hally. I don’t think Peace and Theo are mafia because they left their votes on Golden for so long, especially Peace because he has actually been active.

 

 

##unvote, ##vote Nol

 

I don't know how long I'll be around today and I really hate no lynches.

 

Leelou switches her vote from Hally to Nolder. In light of recent events this could be seen as a scummy move but I feel pretty good about Leelou’s later switch to Golden when their two trains were evened out.

 

 

## unvote

 

## vote Golden

 

 

I don't really like his double flip flop on me. It smacks of fake scumhunting (I had you as town but now mafia, oh okay town again) and buddying. Which is doubly weird since I am not a likely buddy target at this point in the game.

 

I will be around today but not have a whole lot of time.

 

 

Might be able to get to reply to cloud but tl;dr version for not voting you is I had Tommy as the leader and by the time I got to you being the more likely mafia of the two it is too late in the day and your lynch is too unlikely.

 

 

 

Oh and BTW Csarmi, I actually like the VC style.

 

This vote from Turin proved to me that he was Town. I also started feeling better about him recently but still felt unsure because of our conflicting opinions.

 

 

## vote Nolder

 

If Nol flips town then I will start looking your way Tom, you seemed to be tunneling on him lately

 

Golden’s vote on Nolder. He is trying to set up Tom’s lynch tomorrow saying that he will look at him if Nolder ends up flipping Town. This could also be WIFOM, but I was leaning town on Nolder because of his calm and reasonable behavior just before his lynch so this only supports my town read on him.

 

 

##Vote Golden

I think he's more likely scum than Nolder. The way he just attacked me was terribad.

 

Tom decided to vote for Nolder instead of Golden. This vote also supports my town read on him because he could have also went for Nolder. The two trains were dangerously close to each other and one vote could have made all the difference to save his teammate if he were mafia.

 

 

You make a good point, and since we've been talking, I'm feeling a lot better about Nol. I'm down for giving it a shot.

 

##unvote

 

##unvote Krak

 

Hallia also unvotes from Nolder and follows me onto Krak.

 

 

VoteCount Day01#16

 

 

01 - Peace: -> Elf -> Golden

02 - Cloud: -> Elf -> Turin -> Hoof -> Turin -> Nolder -> NULL -> Krak

03 - Krak: -> Cloud -> Hoof -> NULL

04 - GoldenEyes: -> Elf -> Via -> NULL -> Nolder

05 - TommyRod: -> Peace -> Turin -> Hoof -> NULL -> Nolder -> Hally -> Golden

06 - Leelou: -> Nolder -> Hally -> Nolder

07 - Theodora: -> Golden

08 - Elffern: -> Peace -> NULL -> Nolder

09 - Hally: -> Golden -> Nolder -> NULL -> Krak

10 - BFG: -> Golden -> NULL -> Nolder

11 - Via: -> Golden

12 - Nolder: -> Hally -> NULL

13 - BlackHoof: -> Peace -> Nolder

14 - Turin: -> Tommy -> NULL -> Krak -> Golden

 

 

 

Golden - 5 - Peace, Thea, Via, Turin, Tommy

Nolder - 5 - BFG, Elf, Hoof, Leelou, Golden

Krak - 2 - Cloud, Hally

 

Not voting: Krak, Nolder

8 to lynch.

Deadline: 2013-12-29, 20:00 GMT

Countdown: http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20131229T21&p0=50&msg=ChristmasMM-D1

 

In 1 hours and 56 minutes. I'll be around the deadline afterall. I may or may not extend it.

Notice how both Golden and Nolder have 5 votes each.

 

 

@Nol - Wombat really isn't posting much in my mentor thread. I only voted you this time because I didn't want us to miss a lynch and I wasn't sure if I'd be able to get back on before deadline. If you notice I was seriously voting Hallia up until a couple hours ago. She skates through more as mafia than as town. She has been posting a bit more so I feel slightly more comfortable with her around, but I don't like how she was quoting Yates last night.

 

I'm uncomfortable with Goldy's posts in general. The first game I played with him as town he seemed to take a more logical approach to the game, the last game I saw him in he replaced in for me and was scum and that is more how his style feels right now.

 

##unvote, ##vote Goldy

 

And now Leelou tips the scales in Nolder’s favor by switching her vote to Golden. I think this was too early for a busvote, and every vote could have made a difference. This could be an early busvote, but I would have personally left my vote on Nolder if I were Golden’s teammate. Is Leelou a player who is likely to bus a teammate early to safe her own skin, or would she take the risk and try to safe her teammate?

 

 

 

@Nol - Wombat really isn't posting much in my mentor thread. I only voted you this time because I didn't want us to miss a lynch and I wasn't sure if I'd be able to get back on before deadline. If you notice I was seriously voting Hallia up until a couple hours ago. She skates through more as mafia than as town. She has been posting a bit more so I feel slightly more comfortable with her around, but I don't like how she was quoting Yates last night.

 

I'm uncomfortable with Goldy's posts in general. The first game I played with him as town he seemed to take a more logical approach to the game, the last game I saw him in he replaced in for me and was scum and that is more how his style feels right now.

 

##unvote, ##vote Goldy

I don't know. It's hard to tell with you right now.

To me it all looks like a setup and if you're scum you could just lie about Wombat's activity.

Or even if you aren't the plan could just be your own anyway.

 

I have an idea, why don't you follow me onto Theo and we'll try to take out the lowest postcount player besides the replacement?

That'd make me feel a whole lot better about you I think.

 

##Vote Theo

 

 

Nolder votes for Theo. He could have went for Golden, or even for Krak but instead decided to start a train on his own. This is actually giving me a town feeling after seeing Golden flip mafia. He was then the most likely one to get lynched, and I don’t see a mafia Nolder doing this instead of making the most logical move and bus his teammate.

 

 

##unvote ##vote golden , figure he's not gunna turn up anytime soon (sorry Hallie)

 

And here Effie come with the Hammer. She hasn’t been posting during these last few pages, but like I said yesterday any hammer would have looked bad from someone who hadn’t been around and I have a town read on her because of her play during Day 1.

 

 

 

[_CLOUD]

 

for the record I think it's fine for players to change their opinion, that in itself I don't find scummy at all.

 

I suppose to me using 'vindicated' would be more applicable if you had been actively pushing for his lynch, making cases and rebutals on him, etc. Not just that you found him scummy, were going to hammer and he turned out to be mafia.

 

It seems a bit over the top for that.

 

 

I agree with this.  I don't think Hallia did anything of note to push the golden lynch, nor were there people condemning her opinions on him so that she would feel vindicated.

 

Agreed. I still think she is town though.

[_CLOUD]

Interesting.

 

This definitely casts Tommy and Cloud in a bad light, but I think that they were just mistaken. Like I said, town on town violence. In fact the mafia did us a favour by NK'ing turin- it removes that distracting fight, which Turin seemed to be losing anyway.

 

As my second scum suspect, however, I will vote nolder

 

##Vote nolder

 

I don't like how you and Krak were going after Nolder during these last pages. This actually puts you back in my list of potential mafia's with Via and Krak. Via actually looks a little better for not pushing the same angle as you guys.

[_CLOUD]

##Vote Krak

[_CLOUD]

Hey everyone. I've been sorta following along, but I'll need some time to catch up. I have the baby this week, so it'll more likely be quick catchups on my phone when he's napping. I'll make sure to get to it today when he goes down.

 

Welcome :)

[BFG]

Let's see if this will post in one...

 

and the answer is no.

 

 

VoteCount Day01#16

01 - Peace: -> Elf -> Golden
02 - Cloud: -> Elf -> Turin -> Hoof -> Turin -> Nolder
03 - Krak: -> Cloud -> Hoof -> NULL
04 - GoldenEyes: -> Elf -> Via -> NULL -> Nolder
05 - TommyRod: -> Peace -> Turin -> Hoof -> NULL -> Nolder -> Hally
06 - Leelou: -> Nolder -> Hally -> Nolder
07 - Theodora: -> Golden
08 - Elffern: -> Peace -> NULL -> Nolder
09 - Hally: -> Golden -> Nolder
10 - BFG: -> Golden -> NULL -> Nolder
11 - Via: -> Golden
12 - Nolder: -> Hally
13 - BlackHoof: -> Peace -> Nolder
14 - Turin: -> Tommy -> NULL -> Krak -> Golden

Golden - 4 - Peace, Thea, Via, Turin
Hally - 2 - Nolder, Tommy
Nolder - 7 - BFG, Elf, Hally, Hoof, Cloud, Leelou, Golden


Not voting: Krak
8 to lynch.
Deadline: 2013-12-29, 20:00 GMT
Countdown: http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20131229T21&p0=50&msg=ChristmasMM-D1

In 2 hours and 58 minutes. I'll be around the deadline afterall. I may or may not extend it.

 

 

##Vote Golden

I think he's more likely scum than Nolder. The way he just attacked me was terribad.

 

 

 

There's a lot of votes on Nolder. If he flips town we should go after Hallie. 

 

I don't like this post. Why would Hallia be scum if Nolder flips town? It sounds like you are trying to set up lynches.

 

 

 

 

Other mentors have gone as far as actually speaking in the game, past the checkin phase, so I figured it was ok.  They're there to help right?

 

You are right, but other mentors haven't made any game related posts. You and Yates sound more like a Hydra right now and it's more difficult to read you if you keep quoting him. I agree with your assessment of Golden's post by the way.

 

 

 

Hallia's train is a bad idea because I'm starting to get town vibes from her during these last few pages. I could go for either Nolder or Golden right now, and I'm leaning more towards Nolder being mafia.

 

##vote Nolder

 

 

I really have to go now. I will be back in 5 hours or something.

 

Consider what you just said in the first part of this post and then the second.

Do you think it's possible it's Yates' gameplay that is giving you townie vibes and not Hallia?

 

 

That's very likely. I usually have a difficult time reading Hallia and this game wasn't any different so I had her as my only null read. I'm still unsure about both you and Golden. The thing that stood out to me the most regarding your play was that you only only had a town read on Krak, and when further questioned you claimed to have forgotten what gave you that initial impression. I know that you hate inactives, but your vote on Hallia just seemed lazy, especially because you weren't that active yourself either. The thing that stood out to me from Golden was his aggressive response to Via's vote on him. It sounded too extravagant. I haven't played enough with him to know if he always acts like that or not, but it certainly makes him a difficult player to read.

 

I would personally prefer a lynch on Krak, but it doesn't sound like that will happen today.

 

 

 

You can tell that to my corpse at this rate. >_>

 

Also with Tommy hopping off there's really no point in voting you anymore I guess.

 

##Unvote

 

Now the question is, self preservation or symbolic vote?

 

 

##unvote

 

 

Basically you don't follow the case of the person you suspect to be mafia onto someone else.

 

 

You make a good point, and since we've been talking, I'm feeling a lot better about Nol.  I'm down for giving it a shot.

 

##unvote

 

##unvote Krak

 

 

Yeah I'm also starting to feel better about Nolder.

 

 

##Vote Krak

 

 

##vote Krak even  

 

 

 

 

VoteCount Day01#16

01 - Peace: -> Elf -> Golden
02 - Cloud: -> Elf -> Turin -> Hoof -> Turin -> Nolder -> NULL -> Krak
03 - Krak: -> Cloud -> Hoof -> NULL
04 - GoldenEyes: -> Elf -> Via -> NULL -> Nolder
05 - TommyRod: -> Peace -> Turin -> Hoof -> NULL -> Nolder -> Hally -> Golden
06 - Leelou: -> Nolder -> Hally -> Nolder
07 - Theodora: -> Golden
08 - Elffern: -> Peace -> NULL -> Nolder
09 - Hally: -> Golden -> Nolder -> NULL -> Krak
10 - BFG: -> Golden -> NULL -> Nolder
11 - Via: -> Golden
12 - Nolder: -> Hally -> NULL
13 - BlackHoof: -> Peace -> Nolder
14 - Turin: -> Tommy -> NULL -> Krak -> Golden

Golden - 5 - Peace, Thea, Via, Turin, Tommy
Nolder - 5 - BFG, Elf, Hoof, Leelou, Golden
Krak - 2 - Cloud, Hally

Not voting: Krak, Nolder
8 to lynch.
Deadline: 2013-12-29, 20:00 GMT
Countdown: http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20131229T21&p0=50&msg=ChristmasMM-D1

In 1 hours and 56 minutes. I'll be around the deadline afterall. I may or may not extend it.

 

 

@Nol - Wombat really isn't posting much in my mentor thread. I only voted you this time because I didn't want us to miss a lynch and I wasn't sure if I'd be able to get back on before deadline. If you notice I was seriously voting Hallia up until a couple hours ago. She skates through more as mafia than as town. She has been posting a bit more so I feel slightly more comfortable with her around, but I don't like how she was quoting Yates last night. 

 

I'm uncomfortable with Goldy's posts in general. The first game I played with him as town he seemed to take a more logical approach to the game, the last game I saw him in he replaced in for me and was scum and that is more how his style feels right now. 

 

##unvote, ##vote Goldy

 

 

[BFG]

 

@Nol - Wombat really isn't posting much in my mentor thread. I only voted you this time because I didn't want us to miss a lynch and I wasn't sure if I'd be able to get back on before deadline. If you notice I was seriously voting Hallia up until a couple hours ago. She skates through more as mafia than as town. She has been posting a bit more so I feel slightly more comfortable with her around, but I don't like how she was quoting Yates last night. 

 

I'm uncomfortable with Goldy's posts in general. The first game I played with him as town he seemed to take a more logical approach to the game, the last game I saw him in he replaced in for me and was scum and that is more how his style feels right now. 

 

##unvote, ##vote Goldy

I don't know. It's hard to tell with you right now.

To me it all looks like a setup and if you're scum you could just lie about Wombat's activity.

Or even if you aren't the plan could just be your own anyway.

 

I have an idea, why don't you follow me onto Theo and we'll try to take out the lowest postcount player besides the replacement?

That'd make me feel a whole lot better about you I think.

 

##Vote Theo

 

 

 

 

I will switch to Golden if Krak's train won't take off.

I have no issue voting Krak, either.

 

I don't see where Theo is going to get us right now though.

 

 

 

Nolder, are you willing to vote Krak? The guy you said was your only town lean?

 

 

 

 

Yeah Blackhoof doesn't look good.

 

 

##unvote vote Blackhoof

 

You now all of a sudden agree with me? You didn’t respond back at me when I retorted your arguments for why I must be scum, and you kept your vote on me since then without bother to reply to anything in the game except to call me out for buddying, so your sudden switch to Hoof without explanation seems odd.

 

 

At this point I'm starting to get really suspicious of Krak. I only had one post before this one where I asked him if he was going to post something useful this game because he wasn't replying to anything except joking around a little and calling me out for buddying.

 

 

 

Golden's OMGUS vote and later unvote, while in my opinion overreacted, does give me a town vibe from him. I also found Via scummy for only nitpicking and not adressing the game at large or giving her reads on the rest of the players. Her defense against Golden's vote also wasn't good imo.

 

 

 

 

Golden's OMGUS vote and later unvote, while in my opinion overreacted, does give me a town vibe from him. I also found Via scummy for only nitpicking and not adressing the game at large or giving her reads on the rest of the players. Her defense against Golden's vote also wasn't good imo.

 

What about the way he said I was tunneling on Nolder? That's obviously B.S.

 

 

True. That is one of the reasons why I'm going back and forth on him. I just can't read the dude.

 

 

 

VoteCount Day01#17

 

 

01 - Peace: -> Elf -> Golden

02 - Cloud: -> Elf -> Turin -> Hoof -> Turin -> Nolder -> NULL -> Krak

03 - Krak: -> Cloud -> Hoof -> NULL

04 - GoldenEyes: -> Elf -> Via -> NULL -> Nolder

05 - TommyRod: -> Peace -> Turin -> Hoof -> NULL -> Nolder -> Hally -> Golden

06 - Leelou: -> Nolder -> Hally -> Nolder -> Golden

07 - Theodora: -> Golden

08 - Elffern: -> Peace -> NULL -> Nolder

09 - Hally: -> Golden -> Nolder -> NULL -> Krak

10 - BFG: -> Golden -> NULL -> Nolder

11 - Via: -> Golden

12 - Nolder: -> Hally -> NULL -> Theo

13 - BlackHoof: -> Peace -> Nolder

14 - Turin: -> Tommy -> NULL -> Krak -> Golden

 

 

 

Golden - 6 - Peace, Thea, Via, Turin, Tommy, Leelou

Nolder - 4 - BFG, Elf, Hoof, Golden

Krak - 2 - Cloud, Hally

Theo - 1 - Nolder

 

Not voting: Krak

8 to lynch.

Deadline: 2013-12-29, 20:00 GMT - this is final, no extension will be given

Countdown: http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20131229T21&p0=50&msg=ChristmasMM-D1

 

 

##vote Golden

 

 

Golden's still on my list of scum, I'll give him a little bit to get in here before hammer.

 

 

Krak not voting is terribad.

 

 

Intention to hammer Golden

 

 

 

He's not responded at all, and it's growing close.

 

 

Just caught up, and I know it's shitty that it was right before the deadline, sorry.  Ended up getting pretty drunk last night.  Today should see me more active.

 

 

Like Hallia, intention to hammer Golden.

 

 

##unvote ##vote golden , figure he's not gunna turn up anytime soon (sorry Hallie)

 

 

Well I guess that settles that!  S'ok Elfie ^_^

 

 

I feel vindicated

 

I think Tommy's looking pretty good right now.

 

Hallia's reaction is interesting.

 

Want to look at the Krak interaction more.

[_CLOUD]

Could you please use spoiler tags, BFG? Hallia's reactions actually seem honest and relaxed to me and it is giving me a town read on her. While saying that she is vindicated after Golden's lynch is pushing it a bit I do find her voting pattern pro-town.

[Blackhoof]

 

 

 

Via, Krak and Hoof are mafia. If the game is still going on then Effie is too.

 

/game

You can scrap Effie of that list because we only have 4 mafia. There is also a third party out there though.

 

Do you think in a game of 14 there will be 4 mafia and a third party?

 

Why are you so sure there are 4 mafia? with a third party player it would seem more like there would be 3 mafia.

 

Why are you so certain there is a third party?

 

If there is how can you conclude so strongly on the townies?

 

The joy of third party is being able to really scumhunt, especially a survivor. they would want to be as "town" as possible

 

I will go back and look at your post now cloud

 

You made several good points in this post, Turin. I admit that I got a little carried away while analyzing all the votes after Golden’s lynch yesterday and ran up to certain problems, like the number of mafia’s in the game and my reads of certain players. I thought that there were 4 mafia’s after dividing 14 by 4. You are most likely right that if there is a Survivor in the game then there will likely be only 3 mafia’s, and if there is a Serial Killer 4 mafia’s. I do believe that there is a third party in the game because of the simple reason that Salami designed two third party roles with some special abilities, and I don’t think he would have gone to such extent just to expand his list of potential roles that can be found in the game. I have never modded a game before, but I find the chances of two third-party roles in a 14 player basic game very unlikely.

 

After analyzing all the votes a second time I came to a revised version of my theory. You can find my analysis of all the recent votes under the spoiler tags. If you don’t like going through all the votes I have also written a summary:

 

Tom is town because he chose to vote for Golden instead of Nolder, and Golden said that if Nolder would flip town he would look at Tom. I believe he was trying to set up Tom’s lynch and this also one of the reasons that I believe Nolder is town. I also had a town read on Tom because of his play during Day 1 and I agreed with a lot of his reads.

 

Nolder is town because he was the counter-train on Golden and it went too fast for him to also be mafia. I also don’t see a mafia Nolder trying to start a Theo train one hour before the deadline because such a move would attract too much attention if he knew that Golden was the most likely one to have gotten lynched.

 

Turin is town because he also chose to vote for Golden instead of Nolder.

 

Hallia is town because of her vote switching from Golden to Nolder, to Krak, and then finally back again to Golden. I have also gotten town vibes from her during these last few pages.

 

Leelou is probably town because of her vote on Golden that made the scales flip in Nolder’s favor. I have to admit that I don’t know if Leelou is someone who would safe herself by bussing her teammate, or take the risk and try to safe him instead. I got a town read on her during Day 1 so that also makes me feel better about her.

 

Peace is town because he was the first to vote for Golden and he left his vote on him while being active the whole time.

 

Theo is probably town due to the same reason as Peace, but she disappeared so it could have also been a blunder. I don’t see her voting for a teammate straight out of the gate though.

 

Effie is town because of her play on Day 1, and while she wasn’t active before the deadline where all the vote switching happened she did end up hammering Nolder. Any hammer from someone who hasn’t been around until then would have seemed suspicious so I will just focus on her play instead of her vote placement.

 

I’m not sure about Blackhoof. I found him more scummy when I cased him, and since then his play has improved and he appeared suspicious of both Golden and Nolder. I can’t blame him for that because I felt the same during that stage of the game. I could go either way on him.

 

 

This leaves Krak and Via as my two mafia suspects.

 

I think Krak is mafia because of his play and because he wasn’t voting for anyone which is really bad.

 

I think Via is also mafia because of her interactions with Golden which seemed iffy to me, but she was the third person to vote for Golden which does make her look a little better.

 

 

 

 

Hmmmm ok, Cloud has convinced me. I have done a bit of rereading and I have revised my opinion on him.

 

Still do not like Peace one bit.

 

Golden is also sticking out, with that terrible vote on via, who defended herself well imo. I didn't like how he then retracted it, stating that it was out of spite anyway- we have less than a day until deadline, and you were voting out of spite? He is being far too emotional, and I do not like that one bit. All his play has been heavily emotional.

 

Nolder is pinging me increasingly. Don't blame him for not reading the thread- goodness knows there is a lot, and I am having trouble making informed posts ahaha. However I don't like any of the votes on Hallia, especially not his. She has been inactive largely, think she gave a good reason, or was that someone else? More info would be secured from another lynch. Note how he votes hallia, who has posted rrlatively little, while after dozens of posts from other players he stated this:

 

 

 

 

 

As for scumreads.

I'm reluctant to narrow my focus to just three people right now, it's too early in the game for that.

Especially given that so many people have barely posted.

If I've noticed something off or wrong or whatever I've called people on it.

Nothing has been held back thus far so what you've seen is what you get.

 

I will say that out of everyone Krak has been the only one to give me a town vibe thus far.

 

Nope, don't like it. Would gladly move my vote to either Golden or Nolder, since the Peace train isn't going anywhere. I think Nolder.

##unvote

##vote nolder

 

 

As for Turin, I am uncertain, but leaning town. His arguments and logic are quite sound to my ears. I think that it is a case of town on town violence.

 

Here is Blackhoof’s vote on Nolder. He is suspicious of both Nolder and Golden, but ends up voting for Golden. I actually don’t find the placement of his vote as suspicious as I did yesterday.

 

 

VoteCount Day01#15

 

 

01 - Peace: -> Elf -> Golden

02 - Cloud: -> Elf -> Turin -> Hoof -> Turin -> Nolder

03 - Krak: -> Cloud -> Hoof -> NULL

04 - GoldenEyes: -> Elf -> Via -> NULL

05 - TommyRod: -> Peace -> Turin -> Hoof -> NULL -> Nolder -> Hally

06 - Leelou: -> Nolder -> Hally

07 - Theodora: -> Golden

08 - Elffern: -> Peace -> NULL -> Nolder

09 - Hally: -> Golden -> Nolder

10 - BFG: -> Golden -> NULL -> Nolder

11 - Via: -> Golden

12 - Nolder: -> Hally

13 - BlackHoof: -> Peace -> Nolder

14 - Turin: -> Tommy -> NULL -> Krak

 

 

 

Golden - 3 - Peace, Thea, Via

Hally - 3 - Nolder, Leelou, Tommy

Nolder - 5 - BFG, Elf, Hally, Hoof, Cloud

Krak - 1 - Turin

 

Not voting: Krak, Golden

8 to lynch.

Deadline: 2013-12-29, 20:00 GMT

Countdown: http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20131229T21&p0=50&msg=ChristmasMM-D1

 

In 6 hours and 32 minutes.

The latest VC before people start to switch trains. Peace, Theo and Via are on Golden while BFG, Effie, Hally, Hoof and me are on Nolder. Nolder, Leelou and Tom are currently voting for Hally. I don’t think Peace and Theo are mafia because they left their votes on Golden for so long, especially Peace because he has actually been active.

 

 

##unvote, ##vote Nol

 

I don't know how long I'll be around today and I really hate no lynches.

 

Leelou switches her vote from Hally to Nolder. In light of recent events this could be seen as a scummy move but I feel pretty good about Leelou’s later switch to Golden when their two trains were evened out.

 

 

## unvote

 

## vote Golden

 

 

I don't really like his double flip flop on me. It smacks of fake scumhunting (I had you as town but now mafia, oh okay town again) and buddying. Which is doubly weird since I am not a likely buddy target at this point in the game.

 

I will be around today but not have a whole lot of time.

 

 

Might be able to get to reply to cloud but tl;dr version for not voting you is I had Tommy as the leader and by the time I got to you being the more likely mafia of the two it is too late in the day and your lynch is too unlikely.

 

 

 

Oh and BTW Csarmi, I actually like the VC style.

 

This vote from Turin proved to me that he was Town. I also started feeling better about him recently but still felt unsure because of our conflicting opinions.

 

 

## vote Nolder

 

If Nol flips town then I will start looking your way Tom, you seemed to be tunneling on him lately

 

Golden’s vote on Nolder. He is trying to set up Tom’s lynch tomorrow saying that he will look at him if Nolder ends up flipping Town. This could also be WIFOM, but I was leaning town on Nolder because of his calm and reasonable behavior just before his lynch so this only supports my town read on him.

 

 

##Vote Golden

I think he's more likely scum than Nolder. The way he just attacked me was terribad.

 

Tom decided to vote for Nolder instead of Golden. This vote also supports my town read on him because he could have also went for Nolder. The two trains were dangerously close to each other and one vote could have made all the difference to save his teammate if he were mafia.

 

 

You make a good point, and since we've been talking, I'm feeling a lot better about Nol. I'm down for giving it a shot.

 

##unvote

 

##unvote Krak

 

Hallia also unvotes from Nolder and follows me onto Krak.

 

 

VoteCount Day01#16

 

 

01 - Peace: -> Elf -> Golden

02 - Cloud: -> Elf -> Turin -> Hoof -> Turin -> Nolder -> NULL -> Krak

03 - Krak: -> Cloud -> Hoof -> NULL

04 - GoldenEyes: -> Elf -> Via -> NULL -> Nolder

05 - TommyRod: -> Peace -> Turin -> Hoof -> NULL -> Nolder -> Hally -> Golden

06 - Leelou: -> Nolder -> Hally -> Nolder

07 - Theodora: -> Golden

08 - Elffern: -> Peace -> NULL -> Nolder

09 - Hally: -> Golden -> Nolder -> NULL -> Krak

10 - BFG: -> Golden -> NULL -> Nolder

11 - Via: -> Golden

12 - Nolder: -> Hally -> NULL

13 - BlackHoof: -> Peace -> Nolder

14 - Turin: -> Tommy -> NULL -> Krak -> Golden

 

 

 

Golden - 5 - Peace, Thea, Via, Turin, Tommy

Nolder - 5 - BFG, Elf, Hoof, Leelou, Golden

Krak - 2 - Cloud, Hally

 

Not voting: Krak, Nolder

8 to lynch.

Deadline: 2013-12-29, 20:00 GMT

Countdown: http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20131229T21&p0=50&msg=ChristmasMM-D1

 

In 1 hours and 56 minutes. I'll be around the deadline afterall. I may or may not extend it.

Notice how both Golden and Nolder have 5 votes each.

 

 

@Nol - Wombat really isn't posting much in my mentor thread. I only voted you this time because I didn't want us to miss a lynch and I wasn't sure if I'd be able to get back on before deadline. If you notice I was seriously voting Hallia up until a couple hours ago. She skates through more as mafia than as town. She has been posting a bit more so I feel slightly more comfortable with her around, but I don't like how she was quoting Yates last night.

 

I'm uncomfortable with Goldy's posts in general. The first game I played with him as town he seemed to take a more logical approach to the game, the last game I saw him in he replaced in for me and was scum and that is more how his style feels right now.

 

##unvote, ##vote Goldy

 

And now Leelou tips the scales in Nolder’s favor by switching her vote to Golden. I think this was too early for a busvote, and every vote could have made a difference. This could be an early busvote, but I would have personally left my vote on Nolder if I were Golden’s teammate. Is Leelou a player who is likely to bus a teammate early to safe her own skin, or would she take the risk and try to safe her teammate?

 

 

 

@Nol - Wombat really isn't posting much in my mentor thread. I only voted you this time because I didn't want us to miss a lynch and I wasn't sure if I'd be able to get back on before deadline. If you notice I was seriously voting Hallia up until a couple hours ago. She skates through more as mafia than as town. She has been posting a bit more so I feel slightly more comfortable with her around, but I don't like how she was quoting Yates last night.

 

I'm uncomfortable with Goldy's posts in general. The first game I played with him as town he seemed to take a more logical approach to the game, the last game I saw him in he replaced in for me and was scum and that is more how his style feels right now.

 

##unvote, ##vote Goldy

I don't know. It's hard to tell with you right now.

To me it all looks like a setup and if you're scum you could just lie about Wombat's activity.

Or even if you aren't the plan could just be your own anyway.

 

I have an idea, why don't you follow me onto Theo and we'll try to take out the lowest postcount player besides the replacement?

That'd make me feel a whole lot better about you I think.

 

##Vote Theo

 

 

Nolder votes for Theo. He could have went for Golden, or even for Krak but instead decided to start a train on his own. This is actually giving me a town feeling after seeing Golden flip mafia. He was then the most likely one to get lynched, and I don’t see a mafia Nolder doing this instead of making the most logical move and bus his teammate.

 

 

##unvote ##vote golden , figure he's not gunna turn up anytime soon (sorry Hallie)

 

And here Effie come with the Hammer. She hasn’t been posting during these last few pages, but like I said yesterday any hammer would have looked bad from someone who hadn’t been around and I have a town read on her because of her play during Day 1.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think you are making too definite statements from voting in this last. I still think that Nolder can be mafia, regardless of the speed of his near-lynch. You know, as mafia you fake-case and such, and sometimes vote teammates to keep up the appearance of being town- Peace for instance could have easily done the same with Golden. Although, thinking back to their interaction, that doesn't seem likely....

 

I could definitely go for a Krak lynch, but Nolder is still bad imo.

[_CLOUD]

Don't misunderstand. Me writing statements in such a definite way doesn't mean that I don't hold any doubt about them. I however find the chances of Nolder being mafia very low and I believe that the entire mafia team can be found between you, Krak and Via. I would like to hear what everyone else has to say about the ending of Day 1 though. I will be back in a couple of hours.

[Krakalakachkn]

 

@ Turin - I thought you didn't like it when people put themselves down as town in their read lists and stuff - or is it different because you are doing it?

 

@ Krak - you have misquoted Turin in your post at 464 - what makes it worse is that you have included Turin's post in yours. I don't know whether you have just misread, or have tried to twist Turin's words here, but tried to do it subtly by just swapping two words round

 

That is true about the list. I normally will not include myself at all but I did it since I copied from the player list and I happened to be at the bottom. I think I did try to make it clear that my "read" on myself was based on info not available to everyone. I thought I may have even overexplained it.

 

 

Careful on Krak, someone might think you are nitpicking

 

No, she's absolutely right. I misread and misquoted. My bad Turin.

[csarmi]

Got word from Thea. She's still recovering, I'm sure she's going to be alright tho!

[BFG]

Hope you feel better Theo

[Krakalakachkn]

@Hoof - any particular reason?

[Leelou]

Sorry, I'm distracted with work drama today. I'll post after I get home and have a clear head and then I'm off starting Tuesday afternoon until next week Monday. 

[Turin Turambar]

Bah!! Go Town

[Tommyrod]

If you go through my other long player timeline posts and ctrl+F golden you may find some useful stuff. Ex: peace and golden should not be aligned. Suspicious of Via for reasons we've discussed. Halli commenting only on golden way back when is weird too. I think you all remember most of this. I skimmed and didn't see much vote history analysis, I'd go there for more clues. I am wrangling with a fever atm. Will help out once I am not dying irl.

[keyholder21]

Finally got him down so I'm going through now. Having a sick baby is no bueno, btw.

 

Tommy, hope you feel better soon!

[keyholder21]

And thank you for the welcomes btw :).

[keyholder21]

Shoot. Baby is up. Here are my thoughts so far. I am at the end of page 12 (post 240). I will have to continute this tonight after he goes to bed (~6 hours or so).

 

All the stubbornness makes me want to headdesk. Seriously so many of the boys that play here have such big egos .

 

Cloud's eagerness does not seems scummy to me. Although last time I thought he wasn't scum he was and usually when I think he is, he's not, so I need to think more about this.

 

Leelou “giving elf an out” and then elf asking about leelou's vote stands out a bit to me. She had posted 10 minutes after leelou's vote and asked BFG about her vote on golden, if she wanted to know about leelou's vote, why not ask then instead of several hours & pages later?

 

Telling people how to play is ridiculous. We all have different styles. If we were all the same it would be a boring game.

 

 

 

I dunno Cloud, Hoof is a perfect example of Day 1 lynches.

Wow, really scummy nudge of that tired old joke.

Were you going to try to get me lynched tomorrow too?

 

Not voting Hoof, now am I? Not unless you do something uber scummy by Wednesday.

 

Well considering you're already voting me I don't see why I should give you the benefit of the doubt here tbh.

It looks like you're...hmmm what would this be called. Small game hunting?

While I do agree that Leelou's statement about Hoof was scummy and interestingly timed, this is quite an overreaction for one vote. Especially a vote at the beginning of a day with no deadline (at the time) with no reason attached.

 

Blah, blah, blah. If I wanted you lynched I'd be pushing on you.

Uh, you kind of are. Hence the vote.

It's not like you're going to make it obvious but placing a vote on me, someone who tends to attract trains early and often, as soon as you enter the game without reason is basically going for the early lynch as far as I'm concerned. Trying to strike up the Hoof joke was the same thing. You're casting a wide net. What I can't tell yet is if you're doing this because you're trying to find a good place to bury your vote or if you're trying to see who would follow you.

 

Bold sounds like paranoia.

 

Peace asking people for explanations and then not explaining himself is maddening. I also don't like how he twisted this statement of Tommy's:

 

 

 

If you're town you can prove it to me by going after actual scum

Now that is an interesting statement.

 

 

 

you do understand the conundrum there if Turin is town, right?

Explain

 

You are implying that if he doesn't find scum then he is scum. If he is town, he is uninformed. Conundrum. Catch22. Heading down a 1 way dead end street.

 

Football is awesome, Tommy. How can you not like it??

 

The thread title threw me off. I hadn't realized we were in Day 1 til I saw the thread had gained like a million pages already. Looks like a pissing contest already? Tommy is slightly obnoxious, but I saw a preview of that in his secret circle game. I think between his and Turin's post lengths I'm going to go put on my glasses. Town reads on both. Cloud appears to be coming out a little more aggressively, but he's been lynched Day 1 in several recent games, so I'm not sure if that's a meta change or just an effort to survive Day 1, something Blackhoof seems to not be doing at all. Leaning scum on Cloud. I'm getting a townie vibe from Leelou, always Null on Peace at this point, I admit to have a hard time reading him. Nothing else as far as early reads go. I'll be around tomorrow night most likely, but probably not for the rest of the day. Merry Christmas to everyone who celebrates, or whatever your end of the year holiday happens to be.

Analyzing this a bit. Tommy could be a mafia buddy since Golden offered up “town reads” on both him and Turin and we know Turin was indeed town. Gives Cloud an 'out' for his acting different and is 'leaning scum' on him. Could be something there. I don't have much experience playing with Golden, but I don't get the feeling he was comfortably adept enough to sort of bus a teammate, which makes me feel a bit better about Hoof. I have a null read on leelou, so meh on his town mention. Something about peace's arguments make me think town. Severely stubborn town, but town, so meh on that as well. I'd like to go back and read the Walking Dead game where peace was scum. Might possibly give some insight into whether he acts different as scum.

 

Cloud's case on elf:

 

 

 

I didn't feel it was enough to vote on, but it was/is enough to poke with a stick, and also get day one going further than merry Xmas posts.

Elf is using the classic "his play was scummy but it wasn't enough to vote him" scum tactic.

 

Also what tommyrod said peace, explanation?

And also notice how she is trying to shift the attention towards to Peace who voted for her after it was already explained that his lack of reasoning isn't anything out of the ordinary. Her prod towards Peace and her later vote on him means means that she is afraid of OMGUSing me. A townie would be less self-conscious about her votes than she has been thus far.

 

 

 

@Elf: You don't feel your suspicions of Tom are enough to vote for him, but you don't have any other scum reads.

I'm getting there, but at the time no, what's wrong with that? I don't know people enough to be meta.

 

You want to get Day 1 started but you again aren't willing to vote.

I would call this started, wouldn't you? Oh and look, no vote required as yet

 

You are taking other possible explanations into account, but you claimed that it's better to go with the first case scenario first, and yet again you didn't vote for him.

Er sorry for running a 'ask questions first vote second policy'?

 

Scum prefer to wait until the deadline approaches and do as little as possible until then because it won't tie them to certain reads. Consistency doesn't have to be a good thing either because it shows that you are self-conscious of your own play which scum are more often than town.

You have sound reasoning here on the surface, however, one small flaw. The deadline isn't approaching, as we don't yet have one, in fact I believe we're not even 24 hours in yet? And I'm guessing its probably going to be at least boxing day before we do, so I wouldn't exactly say I've been waiting for until an hour before to hammer someone

 

1. There isn't anything wrong with not having scum reads at the start of the game, and I never expected you to have them. What is pinging however is that even though Tom is your only scum read you didn't want to commit and vote for him.

 

2. The game getting started didn't have anything to do with you withholding your vote on Tom. It started after I called you out for it, but I no way believe that you did it on purpose to attract attention to yourself like you are trying to make it appear now.

 

3. At that point you have already pointed out what you found scummy about Tom's play, and he has replied to your accusations. You refused to vote for him because you wanted to hear him talk more while saying that his play has been scummy after you considered every possible option.

 

4. I was talking in general terms, and you are certainly right that you haven't been waiting on the edge of your seat to hammer someone but the rest of my case on you still stands.

 

 

 

I wasn't twisting, just following a possible line of thought and knowledge of possible strategies I might use if I were mafia. I kinda glad cloud disagrees, as it means I still some nice devious thought processes left

 

And the tone, that was night one, this day one, it scumhunting time

You seem a little unsure about yourself. Also, isn't it twisting when you if you read his actions by looking at what YOU might do in his place if you were mafia instead of just taking it at face value?

 

Oh and yeah, I don't think analysing first posts on day one is helpful except to give scum reads on easy lynchs

There aren't any easy lynches in this game.

 

Maybe you need to play more games then?

But sorry, easy day one lynch then. I.e. when the are more people, and less information, and more chance of lynching a townie

 

 

 

Oh and yeah, I don't think analysing first posts on day one is helpful except to give scum reads on easy lynchs

Actually, it's the most town thing you can do. It put you out there to be read. Tommy gives me strong town vibes just for that one action. He may be the new guy coming in here insulting people before anyone knows him...and has no clues on how to behave in a social setting when you are the new guy but he is town so far.

 

I disagree, but this is my first game in several years I think, so maybe I'm rusty.

 

However I still haven't seen you give a good reason for voting for me before you went of on your tangents?

 

A) I have quite a few mafia games under my belt already, and I'm guessing certainly more than you have I notice that I haven't explained myself well enough here. English isn't my primary language so sometimes I have trouble conveying what I exactly mean. You are twisting Tom's statements because you are looking at his actions from what you might do in his place, instead of just analyzing his post in a logical way. You could read anything at all behind his statements if you go looking for any possible strategies that you might try, and I personally consider that you trying to twist his statements.

 

B) Notice that she keeps pushing for Peace who was openly following my case on her, but while she is defending herself against me she never considered me to be scum.

 

 

 

## vote peace you still haven't explained why you voted for me? I don't min you voting for me, so much as not giving a reason.

 

Btw, why nolder leelou?

And here is the long awaited vote.

 

Also, notice how she is asking for Leelou's reasoning behind her vote on Nolder after she questioned BFG's vote on Golden. Nolder didn't even check into the game when Leelou made that vote so what reasoning could she have? I think Elf is very self-conscious of her play in this game and didn't want to be seen as only questioning the Innocent Child, which was more important to her than actually figuring out the reasoning behind Leelou's vote on Nolder which was obviously non-existant in the first place.

 

 

@Nolder's case on me:

 

You are calling me out for being too eager, which is actually true because I have been really looking forward to this game. However, since when is eagerness a scumtell? It only conveys excitement for a game which isn't an exclusive emotion for the mafia own. You don't say anything about the content of my posts themselves which is very scummy, and instead only go on how I'm being eager.

 

You quoted a post of mine where I ask Tom to follow me after he has been promting us to do the same thing the whole game so far, and then you continue that I'm not trying to apply pressure but just want to get her Elf lynched. This isn't true at all because I have actually explained my reasonings for why I'm suspicious about Elf's play, and by only isolating that post of mine it looks like you are trying to paint events in such a light that would only back up your negative view on me.

 

I was in no way protecting Tom. I only questioned Elf's lack of vote on him after she said that she found him scummy.

 

You calling Peace out for apprently not broadcasting his towniness is bull because his play has been spot on so far. You even admitted the same thing yourself by saying that he is on his town meta. It's also hypocrytical because you accuse me of defending Tom and then proceed to openly defend Peace.

 

I think you have an ulterior motive behind your attack on me.

 

 

 

I find most of this case garbage.

[Blackhoof]

@Krak: Reactions!

 

...just kidding, mainly because of your terribad vote on me, following cloud.

 

Oh you meant Golden.

 

*facepalm*

 

Now I really feel like an idiot, lol.

 

Yeah now that I think about it he did the same thing as Krak.

 

Care to explain why you are following your scum reads, Tom?

And Lo and behold, who also did the same? Golden

 

Just caught up, and I know it's shitty that it was right before the deadline, sorry. Ended up getting pretty drunk last night. Today should see me more active.

 

 

Like Hallia, intention to hammer Golden.

Was also absent from both trains, and copied Hallia with the intention to hammer thing.

[Nolder]

Now witness the firepower of this fully ARMED and OPERATIONAL battle Nolder!

 

[Nolder]

 

 

Updated to be current

01 - Peace

The meta-aware opening of "yo" in #13. He hasn't posted poop until #114 when he sheeps Cloud's vote on Elf out of the blue. He gets snarky as poop when I question that move, and makes an art out of dodging my question for a while. Very uncomfortable with the continuation of dodging, particularly in #127 with "why is it necessary to regurgitate Cloud's reasons?" This one pings me harder the second time, because town should know why they're doing what they're doing. It should roll right off the tongue because they have an organic thought process. They develop suspicions and act on them. Yet Peace has difficulty articulating any reasoning for his vote on Elf. No bueno. 

 

When I ask if this is normal behavior, Cloud and Leelou both say yes. It doesn't mean I am going to give him a free pass for that, though. Peace gets uber snarky when I ask for more detail from other players on his play. Then he backtracks and says I'm very town in #151... I don't know how I feel about this one. Yes, townies do this sometimes, to see how people will react. But I've also seen mafia back down with a "hah! just testing you!" excuse. I'll put him down as slightly scummy by this point. Using the 2+2 forums and my ego as a counter-point is working outside of the game instead of inside it... I dislike that behavior a lot. 

 

Peace blows off Elf's vote on him with a "you need to re-read" comment in #177, which I dislike because he is twice now refusing to give reasonable justification for his original action when prompted. Why can't he produce an argument off the cuff? Ping. I dislike how he jumps on Nolder in #184 after Leelou already cast doubt on Nolder. He follows up with that in #189, which is good. 

 

Peace attacking my "you can show me you're town by scumhunting" comment in #198 by trying to spin it as pigeon-holing Turin smells like crap on second read. I've never had someone do that to me before and it doesn't even make sense. But that aside, it stinks because Peace and Turin have had no interaction with each other yet both have defended each other... why would they both be assuming I am scum and they are town? This only makes sense if they are masons or mafia. I'm guessing the latter based on their refusal to be transparent and dissect the gameplay within the thread, instead me-too-ing and OMGUSing and ignoring a large portion of the game's activity up to this point (Turin even moreso). 

 

Peace backs off of me in #207 by saying "it's the only thing about your player that had pinged me." To me this is a weird statement since that shouldn't have been a ping at all, I'm sure I've done other more pingworthy things... it makes me think he knows I'm town and wants to feel out for mislynch weakness in me since I'm the new guy and people won't defend me based on meta. 

 

I'm surprised to see Peace using me to attack Elf in #236. I can't disagree with what he's saying though, Elf not questioning Nolder is a legit concern and I *can* see why Peace would think them scummy, though I'd like to see him follow up on it if he actually thinks so. In #245 he says "when I am scum I purposefully do not defend others" which is a poop post because I rarely see town make "I'd never do that as scum!" posts. He makes it hard to clear him if he's town. Votes for Golden in #279, and I can't really disagree with that. This may be a case of townies (Peace and myself) with very different styles that don't mesh well.

 

02 - Cloud (mentored by Darthe)

Opening was timid but doesn't bother me on second read. The chat between Cloud and Leelou felt natural. He could be posting just to get posts on the board when the game starts like #22 and #23. This isn't damning by itself, though, more of a supplement. Not sure what Cloud meant by me chasing shadows in #50. I like that he asked for more details from Theo in #75, but the fact that it all just falls flat bothers me. He inadvertently defends me in #107 when he says he disagrees with Elf's comment that OP analysis is scummy. Has decent reasoning in #110: I can see why he votes for Elf in that same post, so that vote feels natural. Cloud's reasoning against Elf in #141 is fluid; he's a town lean of mine. Cloud is still on-point in #228, though I don't think Elf has the droids we're looking for. Pushing for Peace is actually a good thing; dude is scummy. His scum reads are Elf and Nolder... I disagree with the first and need more info for the second. Looks like he's starting to get suspicious of Turin in #231 which is good. Town reads on Leelou, Peace and Tom. If Cloud ends up being mafia this could be a "rule of threes" thing but I doubt he is at this point. 

 

I like that Cloud was beaten into reason by Elf and calls her town in #272 so I think Cloud is my strongest town read so far. Voting for Turin is icing on the cake.

 

03 - Krak (mentored by Verb)

Opening was fine in #30. Says Cloud has the scummiest intro in #44. I don't think it's the scummiest. @Krak, was this a meta read on Cloud? I forgot Krak was in this game until he re-appeared in #238. It's very very fluffy, but he seems to agree Turin is scummy... but gives him an out. Let's see if Krak gets more involved. Oh damn, #239 was bad. Does the "teaching how to play" thing that Turin hates but I notice Turin doesn't call him out on it in this game like Turin called out me and Nolder. But what's really bad is the vote for Cloud, who isn't scummy, and with no justification. Peace just laughs at the name "Clarthe" that Krak invented and ignores his no-justifcation vote. Ping for both of them. I notice that Krak as of #247 is still questioning Cloud, which is good in a way because he didn't just vote-and-run, but I still don't like it. He votes for Cloud again, saying he forgot, and makes a self conscious comment about how multi-posting used to be a scum tell. That's a small ping.

 

@ Krak, tweakin'? I dunno what you're asking me.

 

04 - GoldenEyes (mentored by Despothera)

Self conscious opening in #29. I have no idea what he's saying in #65, looks spammy. Comes back in #208 after a long absence and reads both me and Turin as town and makes some reads with little to no justification. Could be actually busy and not mentally invested, but ping anyway. More christmas wishes in #227; sick of that stuff, lol. Talk about the damn GAME! Elf vote in #277 feels pretty random; I agree that Elf isn't hunting, but that's mostly due to defending against Cloud. She should get more involved from here on out.

 

06 - Leelou (mentored by Wombat)

Opening seemed okay to me. Her chatter with others still feels natural and not forced by the time I enter the thread. She rebuffs me right off the bat, which is probably more town indicative than not; mafia would be more likely to sheep me (since I'm asking people to do so) and observe if I lead a mislynch to start with. It sucks that she won't try to analyze OP's though. Leeloo is getting a little too off-topic for my liking around the time #84 comes around. Votes for Nol in #104; he hasn't posted yet. Why not vote for someone else who hasn't posted like dan? Could be something, could be nothing. She's still jokey around #117 but at least comments on how Elf was backpedaling on suspicion of me. Still grinding against me in #126, but it feels genuine. Leelou is my first comfortable town read. (Looks like Cloud agrees with me in #128 and Peace grinds against that.)

 

Leelou is spot on when she says Elf is beating a dead horse and Hoof is just making consensus reads. Strong town read, like Cloud.

 

07 - Theodora (mentored by Key)

Lame opening in #12. Being friendly with Blackhoof right off the bat in that post. THEN calls Hoof scummy in #74. Not that I... blame her... but this could be a case of scum-on-scum jostling. This happens surprisingly often in early game, where mafia will point out something dumb that mafia have done and not follow up on their suspicions but later can say "hah! I knew it!" When Cloud asks about it, she instantly backs down. Which is funny, since that Hoof post pinged me hard. I would expect a townie to probe into it a bit more? 

 

08 - Elffern (mentored by Dap)

Opening is corny but not scummy in #26. Disappears for a while and then calls me too eager in #93. But that's not the most interesting part... saying Hoof is obviously scummy and not doing anything about it is. Is Hoof the least valuable player in every game or something? People don't seem to take his antics seriously, which could be dangerous if he gets to coast to endgame without serious scrutiny. Elf throws a little suspicion on me in #106 by saying that OP analysis is looking for an easy excuse to lynch. But what bothers me is the way Elf instantly retracts once Cloud disagrees. Is Elf a very timid player?

 

Elf reappears in #137 and defends and says "I haven't seen anything else suspicious." I dislike that post a lot. He defends himself, says he's got nothing to add, and adds misdirection by asking Peace to explain himself when I questioned him. Hmm. His defense is getting a little too fluffy for my liking in #153 and #154. Comments like "maybe I'm rusty." I'm noticing he tends to end posts with a misdirection question. Elf's vote for Peace in #176 is OMGUSing I think, which is kinda funny. 

 

Elf is still trying to get info out of Peace by #186, so I am doubting that they would be scumbros. The Cloud/Elf fighting by post #234 is too involved to be staged, so they aren't scumbros at least. I think it's funny that Elf says she's not fond of OMGUSing yet that's pretty much exactly what she did to Peace, lol. Who is Toddy? Is that me? Based on how Elf said Cloud is probably town, and I think Cloud is town, I believe this long winded argument is town-on-town violence (aka towning). 

 

Elf is right in #258 that we need to hear more from Hally, Theo and Golden, at a minimum.

 

09 - Hally (mentored by Yates)

Opening post #27 pinged me on second read considering how little has been said by Hallia. It's both off-topic and me-too-ing the friendly chat that Theo and Hoof had already. Notably, Hally joins in on Hoof's spam-fest in #53. Damn, Hally hasn't said poop so far. She comes back in #223 with more Christmasy stuff. 3 posts in 3 days? That's pretty inexcusable since she's showing that she's still aware of the game and hasn't forgotten about it. If Peace/Turin end up cocky/lazy masons and not mafia, I'd turn attention here, especially the Hally/Theo/Hoof trio as they've been chummy for no apparent reason. 

 

11 - dansyc (mentored by Kaylee)

No posts yet.

 

12 - Nolder

Appears in #165, hella late. He goes after Cloud right away. Throws out some fluffy comments in #178 but I agree with what he says about Peace here. I'm noticing that he's grinding against Cloud and Leelou, two of my town reads so far, so I'll be curious to see how that develops. Grinding against Peace and Turin is good, I think. Is Nolder an inexperienced player? I like that he's questioning Peace's reasonings in #211 because Peace has been pretty bullpoopy so far. He points out how Peace defended Cloud defending me (lol) but I think he should be focusing on the Peace-Turin interactions more than Cloud. His "dragonmount can jump off a cliff" comment in #212 is a ping. Oh, and @Nolder, WF is WalterFootball forums. His behavior is hard to pin down in #243... he's got a mix of fluff, defense and attack here. I don't think going after Cloud is the right move now, and picking out one Peace post to say it looks good feels bad to me. He actually comments on Krak's "teaching" thing and self-consciously says he'll tone it back. That strikes me as weird interaction. 

 

13 - BlackHoof

Weak opening in #8 and #11. I'm not a fan of the cthulu jokey stuff. Post #51 just reeks of bullpoop trying-too-hard-to-be-harmless stuff. He outright ignores any attempts at discussing the game so far. He's still spammy in #85, but what pings me about this is his comment "normally you would be on the money" regarding him being scummy. Who the hell writes a comment like this? It's too self conscious. Votes Hallia right off the bat in D1 #92 for literally no reason. Really stupid. But what's stupider is how this reinforces the spam-party that Theo, Hoof, and Hally are having now. I'm finding it to be a little too... comfy. More spam in #102. The spam is pinging me harder now. 

 

Disappears until #281 and opens with suspicion on Cloud for back-flipping on his scum read on Elf... even though that argument took up a third of the thread and was very organic. This looks like a lousy excuse to keep suspicion on Cloud. Then in that same post, defends Elf by attacking Goldeneye's vote. Well, which is it? I haven't seen Hoof defend Elf before this, so it seems like a good way to put suspicion on just about everyone involved. As he continues to do when he FOS on Peace and then votes for him. So Hoof basically appears, put suspicion on everyone involved, and then leaves. Haha, wtf? 

 

And then when I make that post about low-posters being suspect... he reappears to defend himself and put suspicion on Dan. I *hate* that because Dan has zero posts, so he can't be anything but null at this point. Scum love to push mislynches onto inactives because they're easy targets. Big ping. Says one of Cloud or Peace are mafia... well no poop, you're voting for Peace? Why say "one of?" 

 

I'm starting to think there's a real good chance of a Theo/Hoof/Hally scumteam.

 

14 - Turin (advised by Pray)

#88 is his opening... to wish a merry christmas? Whatever. He's gone for a while and comes back in #169 asking why his opening looks busy and what that means. So we've got >150 posts and he only cares to defend himself in a pretty lousy way? Ping! Also refuses my attempt to start a wagon on Peace in #170. Good to keep in mind for later. He's self conscious and sassing me for lousy reasons (like Peace was) in #173... and then mentions how he's NOT defending Peace. Ping pong! 

 

Turin returns in #188 and is once again defensive and shows no interest in getting to the bottom of things. His first paragraph is about personal attacks and only defends himself and OMGUS's me without looking around the rest of the thread. Bad ping. I'm noticing Peace and Turin have yet to interact with each other. In #191 he posts about how he dislikes people who "teach" and links me to Nolder. It's hard to follow his logic in that post. He ends it by saying he'll be out for a while, which also pings me, as mafia likes to "appear" active without actually being active, and thus tends to check out. It matches his vibe of really only being defensive so far, and having defended Peace despite not having communicated with him at all. 

 

Updated tl;dr: Strong town leans on Leelou and Cloud, town lean on Elf; scum leans on Turin and the pile of Hoof/Hally/Theo. Nolder, Krak and Golden are in the gray zone but I'm not sure where they slot in with others yet. I'm feeling good about these interactions linking players together: getting one mafia flip should reveal a lot in this game due to this.

 

 

or this one, whatever. also spoiler tags are great.

 

Ok I know I've seen you update this again but I think it's important to start here since I said I would previously.

 

Pre post edit: actually, cancel that. 

A lot of this seems to just be summary with a dash of opinions.

If I'm going to fish around for opinions I'd rather just read the most recent one of these.

Moving on.