THE METAL - End: Dinner for Wolves

[Pralaya]

Underlined: This was interesting. While checking on the last couple of pages again, I noticed that Pray seemed to notice Mish going against the claim, and even referenced her as a possible attempt to buddy someone his team would soon be killing.

 

Lenlo also came out with the "So now I know why Mish was going against AJ's claim..." thing after she died, implying that he was also paying attention to those who spoke out against AJ's claim.

 

I'm almost positive one or both of those knuckleheads (Lenlo and Pray) are scum.

 

 

What? Are you trying to say that I want to buddy someone that I am planning to kill during the night? How does that even make sense? Talk about clutching at straws.

 

Lemme walk you through this. There are two werewolves in this game, and they control the NK. It goes without saying that they aren't going to NK themselves, and that they would want to kill the Seer. After surviving the first lynch, they would have had a 1/9 chance of hitting the Seer, just shooting blind. Not great odds, but still, the Seer WAS under threat of a potential NK.

 

If you're VT, and try and draw the NK, then if you succeed, you lower the chances of them hitting the Seer to 0%. It's been said by some that the best thing you can do as a VT is draw the scum team's NK. Personally, I like helping to nab scum, but meh /shrug

 

You can argue that his fake claiming ended up hurting town, that's fine. Or you can argue that he was trying to fish out the Seer, not draw the NK, which is also fine.

 

Acting like it's absurd that a townie would try and draw the NK to help protect town PR's is not fine.

 

 

 

You want to talk about probabilities? Assuming AJ is town, here are the outcomes of AJ trying to lie and draw a NK

 

Chance of Seer dying reduces from 1/9 = 11.1% to 0%

(which assumes that the real seer does not CC - a very big and risky assumption. There was a high probability that the real Seer would atleast raise some objection, which actually changes the 0% figure to somewhere above 50%))

 

Chance of mafia dying reduces from 3/9 = 33.3% to 0%

Chance of town dying increases from 6/9 = 66.7% to 100%

 

There is nothing positive about any of the above.It was anti-town any way you see it. 

 

The "draw the NK" argument would work in games where there are only two groups - mafia and town (with some scattered 3rd party). Trying to argue the same logic in this game with 3 groups is totally absurd.  It looks more and more like you are trying to protect AJ from what is an obvious lynch.

[hazelkrs1]

I'd say it looks more and more like you are going all-in to try and prevent Tina's lynch.

 

I can understand you saying that AJ's move hurt the town. I'd be likely to agree with you there (and good point with the other probabilities), and that's why there are many who greatly discourage game talk during night phases (personally I'm cool with it, as long as you accept the inherent risk). But anti-town doesn't necessarily mean scum. We have to make sure and lynch definite scum, since we won't be able to slip by with as many mislynches this game (considering the original scum ratio was 5:7 town). So you can't "punish" AJ for doing something that hurt town if it's likely that he's town himself.

 

And as I already laid out, it's very likely that he is town at this point. False claiming during the night as scum would expose yourself way too much, for little gain, and with reduced numbers (only 2 and 3 on each respective team), I don't think you'll see scum doing much to expose themselves this game.

 

Tina on the other hand, has a substantial amount of evidence against her.

 

1. Nudged at Mish while keeping her vote parked on AJ (scum love parking their vote)

2. After being pressed for why she was voting AJ, she acted like she couldn't be bothered to restate the reasons, and instead referred others to her original post where she voted AJ (even while she continuously brought up points against Mish)

3. Pulled a 180 after day ended (said she no longer wanted a Mish lynch, after going at her for a while. Looks like she saw there wouldn't be much support for a Mish lynch and jumped ship)

4. Issued a strange cryptic way-too-obvious statement. Tina: "Looks like scum are fine with lynching anyone that's not scum" Everyone else: "Uhm, yeah... they're scum"

5. Used said bizarre statement to try and direct town focus on four names without giving any reasons why those four should be focused on (and she still hasn't said why btw)

 

A vote for Tina is a vote for town victory. Arguing against voting Tina is like arguing against freedom, unicorns, and fresh marmalade.

[hazelkrs1]

Oh and yes, it's possible that you were trying to buddy someone you thought was town and also knew was going to die so that you could look better the next day. Same reason why scum will defend a townie about to get lynched.

[hazelkrs1]

Oh and yes, it's possible that you were trying to buddy someone you thought was town and also knew was going to die so that you could look better the next day. Same reason why scum will defend a townie about to get lynched.

[Pralaya]

 

And as I already laid out, it's very likely that he is town at this point. False claiming during the night as scum would expose yourself way too much, for little gain, and with reduced numbers (only 2 and 3 on each respective team), I don't think you'll see scum doing much to expose themselves this game.

 

You can use the same argument for him being not town.

 

False claiming during the night as town would be pointless, as seen by the probabilities. Hardly anything to gain and totally going to go against town, especially with only 6 town remaining. (Now we are 5 scum, 5 town).Doing this as town is also not expected. 

 

There is at least something to gain as a wolf (if not a lot) - killing the seer and protecting the surviving mate. Also, you can try to wiggle out of the lynch by claiming it as a stupid-town move.

[hazelkrs1]

Message to all games I'm in: Sorry about the timing for those two that I'm in that just started, but I'm about to head off and I will be off for the next 5 nights, meaning my activity will be a bit lower than normal. Additionally, me and the lovely wifey are going to Asheville to celebrate our anniversary, so Wed and Thursday I wouldn't expect much from me at all. Hearken tho, and do not sadden, for I shall return anew and come with full force and dedication to playing this game we call mafia! ...Unless I die in any games I'm in while I'm away, and then my ghost shall rise with furious anger and seek out retribution on those who have wronged me!

 

Reads:

 

Tina, Pray, Yates, Lenlo

[Verbal32]

 

To the folks harping about activity after 1 game day:  chillax.

I got eaten by a shark.  What's your excuse? 

 

 

I've assumed responsibility for several more areas of this site, I need to replace multiple staff as a result, and I have an 8 month old baby at home.  Oh, and I'm never online for weekends.

 

Your turn.

 

 

 

 

Therefore it seems much more likely to me that AJ was trying to draw the NK as town.

 

^ This.

 

 

 

 

 

Again? Are yall seriously not considering the protown possibilities of him false claiming Seer? I could see you not believing that he was trying to draw the NK, but to not even consider that possibility at all...

 

Lenlo and Pray potentially trying to derail train on Tina noted.

 

 

Are you serious? What is the need to "draw a NK" when there was no threat to the seer at all?

 

Anyone can see that it would have been way more positive had he not lied. The wolves could have killed mafia. By lying, he just invited a town death no matter what.

On top of that, he ran a huge risk of outing the real seer which is what finally happened.

 

He is not town at all.

 

 

Pretty sure Des already said this, but of course there was a threat.  Any non-wolf is a potential target.  Unless your angle is that AJ was trying to figure out who argued the most with him on the claim to potentially out the Seer early.....but that seems pretty damn risky.  Occam's Razor says the most likely explanation is that AJ was trying to draw the NK, which would 100% guarantee the kill didn't hit the Seer.  So that does remove the threat for 1 night.

[Yates]

Why feel the need to then state that it's just a question and not an accusation?

Because you read it as an accusation??  Guilty conscience much?

 

Look; there's two ways you would have known:

1. You just happened to be reading a game you aren't in.  I don't know how common that is around here.  I mean, I often lose interest in games *I PARTICIPATED IN* after I'm dead and end up missing good stuff.  *shrug*  So I wanted to know if there was anything particularly interesting about THAT GAME that would have you so intrigued that felt the need to read it.

 

or

 

2. One of your scum buddies is in that game with me.  *They* remembered reading it and mentioned it in your scum chat as a way to try to sow the seeds of doubt to build a case against me whenever the time is right.

 

So while it wasn't an accusation when I asked - simply a request for clarification - your bizarre response and overreaction has been less than stellar.

[Yates]

You claimed Seer, you lied, not a town move.

Disagree 100%.  If I'm a VT and I was the 2nd biggest wagon and the pitchforks are on their way?  I will ABSOLUTELY try to draw a NK.  About the Towniest thing you can do.

 

AJ is now in my Town pile.

[Kaylee]

 

Are you serious? What is the need to "draw a NK" when there was no threat to the seer at all?

 

Anyone can see that it would have been way more positive had he not lied. The wolves could have killed mafia. By lying, he just invited a town death no matter what.

On top of that, he ran a huge risk of outing the real seer which is what finally happened.

 

He is not town at all.

 

 

Lemme walk you through this. There are two werewolves in this game, and they control the NK. It goes without saying that they aren't going to NK themselves, and that they would want to kill the Seer. After surviving the first lynch, they would have had a 1/9 chance of hitting the Seer, just shooting blind. Not great odds, but still, the Seer WAS under threat of a potential NK.

 

If you're VT, and try and draw the NK, then if you succeed, you lower the chances of them hitting the Seer to 0%. It's been said by some that the best thing you can do as a VT is draw the scum team's NK. Personally, I like helping to nab scum, but meh /shrug

 

You can argue that his fake claiming ended up hurting town, that's fine. Or you can argue that he was trying to fish out the Seer, not draw the NK, which is also fine.

 

Acting like it's absurd that a townie would try and draw the NK to help protect town PR's is not fine.

 

Looking back on it now I see it more as fishing out the Seer. Even if he is town, it seems they used the strongest argument against to guess to be the Seer...the problem with that is how did they know AJ was lying? Did they just take a chance? That's what I'm wondering anyway.

 

 

 

 

And as I already laid out, it's very likely that he is town at this point. False claiming during the night as scum would expose yourself way too much, for little gain, and with reduced numbers (only 2 and 3 on each respective team), I don't think you'll see scum doing much to expose themselves this game.

 

You can use the same argument for him being not town.

 

False claiming during the night as town would be pointless, as seen by the probabilities. Hardly anything to gain and totally going to go against town, especially with only 6 town remaining. (Now we are 5 scum, 5 town).Doing this as town is also not expected. 

 

There is at least something to gain as a wolf (if not a lot) - killing the seer and protecting the surviving mate. Also, you can try to wiggle out of the lynch by claiming it as a stupid-town move.

 

I agree with the bold as I pointed out a pit above.

 

 

 

Why feel the need to then state that it's just a question and not an accusation?

Because you read it as an accusation??  Guilty conscience much?

 

Look; there's two ways you would have known:

1. You just happened to be reading a game you aren't in.  I don't know how common that is around here.  I mean, I often lose interest in games *I PARTICIPATED IN* after I'm dead and end up missing good stuff.  *shrug*  So I wanted to know if there was anything particularly interesting about THAT GAME that would have you so intrigued that felt the need to read it.

 

or

 

2. One of your scum buddies is in that game with me.  *They* remembered reading it and mentioned it in your scum chat as a way to try to sow the seeds of doubt to build a case against me whenever the time is right.

 

So while it wasn't an accusation when I asked - simply a request for clarification - your bizarre response and overreaction has been less than stellar.

 

I often read games I'm not in. Especially if the topic interests me. What does it matter if it was just a question and I decided to answer it? Your persistence to push this is noted. I saw something, commented on it and gave reasons why when you asked. Just a question and an accusation are not that different btw. The emotion/reason behind it changes is all.

[Yates]

Once I saw him claim, and had seen him say recently that he played on MS, I figured that there was a good chance that's what he was trying to do (which is why I tried to play it up a bit to help him in that if that's what he was doing). From what I understand, that sort of thing is fairly common on MS, townies lying and fake claiming and stuff to try and wifom the scum team.

I'm calling "bullsnark." While the underlined is true [pretty sure Darthe and I are the ones that told you this], the bolded wreaks to high heaven. "I was trying to help the guy that you guys are probably going to mislynch now since we lynch all liars on DM and it will earn me massive Town cred when he flips Town." That's what I heard.

 

Also, as a MS expert, you should know that these statements:

What a bummer.

Will get you burned every time. The "oh no a PR is dead? What a shock. It makes my Townie self soooo super sad. *tear*" post. Blech. 99 times out of 100 this comes from the dude that did the killing.

 

The one thing that I do have to mention however is well, the fact that it "didn't work". AJ survived, and the real Seer died, which means that the fake claim at night could have been done to try and fish for the Seer, see who didn't buy the claim at all, to help his team select their NK.

Let's sow seeds of doubt to paint AJ as scummy. And yet?

 

Therefore it seems much more likely to me that AJ was trying to draw the NK as town.

 

Vote Tina

"But guys - even though I told you all the reasons *you* should be voting for AJ? *I* am playing at a different level and will play the 'I told you so' card after *you* mislynch him."

 

Anyways, YEAH the part you quoted of yourself was NOT what I took issue with. Trying to whittle down the argument to an analysis of can/could. LAWLZ. I'm still chuckling about it

 

It was you saying "Either can go in either order". That didn't just mean you could (or can ) vote for either, it meant you would be happy with seeing BOTH swing, and likely would have liked to set up more lynches as well afterwards.

 

I supersized it so you understand what quote I was referring to, so you don't try your little quote editing trick again.

 

***

 

On your god awful point about you and Tina setting up lynches: She said she could vote either _____ and _____, which seemed relevant only to that current phase, while you were outright advocating lynching two different people, one after the other, ignoring thr fact that other evidence could potentially dissuade you from the second lynch if you were town.

Supersizing your own misrep... helps you?

 

*Yates scratches head*

 

On your "god awful" accusation that I would ignore evidence going forward, that's the crux of the misrep! I would *OBVIOUSLY* not ignore evidence that could cause me to change my read. I do it all the time. Pretending hyperbole isn't part of the game is more weaksauce.

 

I'm going to leave this alone since you are the only one in this game that thinks there's a difference between "we can lynch either one in either order" versus "I don't care which one gets lynched first."

 

 

And yes, I can see how MS's ISO feature is so awesome and convenient and probably serves you a bowl of cereal if you ask nice. But it didn't seem like you were just bemoaning a lack of convenience, it seemed like you essentially saying you couldn't be bothered to do an actual ISO on me here, something that IS possible with the site's features, if not as convenient.

Fair enough. I've already acknowledged this fact. Again, I'm simply the victim of my own time constraints. I didn't have the time to do a slow DM "ISO" on you right then, nor did I have the time to go into a lengthy explanation of what would make it easier for me to take the time so I made an offhanded statement that has been taken out of context by the two of you. I have recontextualized it for your convenience.

 

Again you fence-sitting on your read on me. El Oh El.

It's early in Day 2 and I haven't nailed down a read on someone?!! OMG!!! Alert the presses!!!

 

Elle. Oh. Elle.

 

And why are you worried about AJ defending you about the ISO thing, when as you said yourself, he had a better idea of what you were saying because he plays on MS as well? Don't understand that at all.

I don't like scum defending me. How is that difficult to understand?

 

Now that he is a Town read - it's cool.

 

 

On top of that, he ran a huge risk of outing the real seer which is what finally happened.

It did? I'm too lazy to look. Can you show me how AJ's fakeclaim directly lead to Mish's death?

 

Mish isn't dumb. I don't buy for a second that she misplayed that opportunity. Prove me wrong.

 

This exchange actually looks worse than anything AJ did:

 

Lenlo... Do you really believe the ONLY power role in this game would reveal Night 1? Oooor do you think it's an attempt to fish out the real Seer? That's what the wolves want more than anything right now I'd wager; flush out the Seer so that they don't have to worry about that.

Im saying we cant take that risk. Nowhere did I say the Seer should CC now, but if we scum hunt leaving AJ alone until we absolutely have to catch scum ((Sort of a LyLo situation but hopefully we never get to that.)) then the real Seer can CC, securing us a definite scum.

 

As it is if we Lynch AJ because he made a stupid reveal and it turns out hes telling the truth, then what? Then we would have shot ourselves in the foot, as im beginning to think your hoping for. This is nowhere near the worst reveal ive seen from a real PR btw. I still remember EPs Day 1, first post Doc reveal and guess what? He was telling the truth. But everyone had the same mindset as you and we lynched him, which screwed us.

 

This one also stinks to high heaven given the timing:

I´m not as interested in a Mish lynch any longer.

What? Are you trying to say that I want to buddy someone that I am planning to kill during the night? How does that even make sense? Talk about clutching at straws.

What? Are you saying you'd be the first scum in the history of mafia to buddy their future night target for Town cred? How does that make any sense? Talk about clutching at straws.

 

A vote for Tina is a vote for town victory. Arguing against voting Tina is like arguing against freedom, unicorns, and fresh marmalade.

You know what I smell??

 

 

I'll take the free ticket, though.

 

Vote: Tina

[Yates]

I have an 8 month old baby at home.

 

Your turn.

*Yates hangs head*

 

You win.

[Yates]

Just a question and an accusation are not that different btw. The emotion/reason behind it changes is all.

Agreed.  100%.

 

Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.  But not usually. 

[Niniel]

I´m not ignoring the game but I will do the BT stuff first and then read this game. 

[Lenlo]

Fine lets lynch Tina, shes on my list as well with AJ anyway.

 

unvote vote Tina

 

Des, yes a VT would be great to draw the NK but the way he did it was stupid and anti-town. Pral already explained it very well so im not going to rehash all of that, but seriously the way he did it was horrible.

[Yates]

Fine lets lynch Tina, shes on my list as well with AJ anyway.

You have two scum reads and you're willing to vote for either one regardless of order??!!!  SCUM!     [<- this is my new "snark" emoticon!]

[Darthe]

WINNER OF THE CRAP LOTTERY:

 

Tina (5/6): AJ, Kay, Des, Yates, Len

AJ (1/6): Laya

 

Not Voting (4/10):

Tina, BFG, Hally, Verb

[Niniel]

I´m at L-1? But I haven´t even started to read the thread. :( Will do so now.

[Lenlo]

 

Fine lets lynch Tina, shes on my list as well with AJ anyway.

You have two scum reads and you're willing to vote for either one regardless of order??!!!  SCUM!     [<- this is my new "snark" emoticon!]

 

I know! But shhhh, dont tell anyone.

 

Also I just noticed Poe was the title for the day. Awesome. I love Poe.

[Verbal32]

Fine lets lynch Tina, shes on my list as well with AJ anyway.

 

unvote vote Tina

 

Des, yes a VT would be great to draw the NK but the way he did it was stupid and anti-town. Pral already explained it very well so im not going to rehash all of that, but seriously the way he did it was horrible.

 

How can it be a great idea, but the method be anti-town?  Don't the ends justify the means in mafia?  Are you saying he did it so badly that it was too obvious?  Please help me understand where you're going with this.

[Pralaya]

 

Pretty sure Des already said this, but of course there was a threat.  Any non-wolf is a potential target.  Unless your angle is that AJ was trying to figure out who argued the most with him on the claim to potentially out the Seer early.....but that seems pretty damn risky.  Occam's Razor says the most likely explanation is that AJ was trying to draw the NK, which would 100% guarantee the kill didn't hit the Seer.  So that does remove the threat for 1 night.

 

 

I have already had a post with Des on the probabilities of hitting the seer, probability of mafia dying and the probability of town dying. The post is here

 

http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/85088-the-metal-day-2-edgar-allen-poe/page-21?do=findComment&comment=3064152

 

It would seem that there would have been a slight advantage to remove the threat but actually he ran the risk of exacerbating the threat. There was nothing positive that AJ could achieve as town, especially in a game with 3 groups.

 

So yeah, I am saying that he claimed seer to out the actual seer. 

[Niniel]

I´m at L-1? But I haven´t even started to read the thread. :( Will do so now.

 

Have started but won´t be able to finish until my daughter goes to bed. I´m having so much fun with this game so do not lynch me before I get the chance to give my thoughts. 

[Verbal32]

 

 

Pretty sure Des already said this, but of course there was a threat.  Any non-wolf is a potential target.  Unless your angle is that AJ was trying to figure out who argued the most with him on the claim to potentially out the Seer early.....but that seems pretty damn risky.  Occam's Razor says the most likely explanation is that AJ was trying to draw the NK, which would 100% guarantee the kill didn't hit the Seer.  So that does remove the threat for 1 night.

 

 

I have already had a post with Des on the probabilities of hitting the seer, probability of mafia dying and the probability of town dying. The post is here

 

http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/85088-the-metal-day-2-edgar-allen-poe/page-21?do=findComment&comment=3064152

 

It would seem that there would have been a slight advantage to remove the threat but actually he ran the risk of exacerbating the threat. There was nothing positive that AJ could achieve as town, especially in a game with 3 groups.

 

So yeah, I am saying that he claimed seer to out the actual seer. 

 

 

Ok.  So you're saying he's a wolf, then.  Mafia would not care about the Seer; actually, they would want the Seer alive.....but would not expose themselves like that.  So your conclusion is that AJ is a wolf.

[Pralaya]

 

 

 

Pretty sure Des already said this, but of course there was a threat.  Any non-wolf is a potential target.  Unless your angle is that AJ was trying to figure out who argued the most with him on the claim to potentially out the Seer early.....but that seems pretty damn risky.  Occam's Razor says the most likely explanation is that AJ was trying to draw the NK, which would 100% guarantee the kill didn't hit the Seer.  So that does remove the threat for 1 night.

 

 

I have already had a post with Des on the probabilities of hitting the seer, probability of mafia dying and the probability of town dying. The post is here

 

http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/85088-the-metal-day-2-edgar-allen-poe/page-21?do=findComment&comment=3064152

 

It would seem that there would have been a slight advantage to remove the threat but actually he ran the risk of exacerbating the threat. There was nothing positive that AJ could achieve as town, especially in a game with 3 groups.

 

So yeah, I am saying that he claimed seer to out the actual seer. 

 

 

Ok.  So you're saying he's a wolf, then.  Mafia would not care about the Seer; actually, they would want the Seer alive.....but would not expose themselves like that.  So your conclusion is that AJ is a wolf.

 

 

Yeah, that's what I have been saying.

[Lenlo]

 

Fine lets lynch Tina, shes on my list as well with AJ anyway.

 

unvote vote Tina

 

Des, yes a VT would be great to draw the NK but the way he did it was stupid and anti-town. Pral already explained it very well so im not going to rehash all of that, but seriously the way he did it was horrible.

 

How can it be a great idea, but the method be anti-town?  Don't the ends justify the means in mafia?  Are you saying he did it so badly that it was too obvious?  Please help me understand where you're going with this.

 

He did it in such a way that it looked so scummy the actual PR would atleast attempt to get him lynched without CCing. The ends dont always justify the means.