[ADVANCED] KaeKey Game of Thrones Mafia - GAME OVER! NIGHT'S WATCH WINS!

[Basel Gill]

Hrm. Why in the world block Ishy at that point?

 

Because at the time I thought he was scum... duh? I've noted his buddying act with Nol. Then both Ishy and EP answered me well enough to convince me that he was town. That was as of this morning, before I left for work.

 

You ask if he was telling the truth. Well if you hadn't created the WIFOM by blocking Ishy we'd know for sure. You caused this mess. And what are the odds of a roleblocker and jailer and a mafia roleblocker?

 

Total logic fail here, since it wasn't until after I blocked him, not to mention after the posts by EP and myself this morning, that Tress flipped cult. We had no evidence of cult in this game till that point, just some wild speculation. And yet, you seem to be arguing that cult should have been a thing I should have accounted for in my reasoning before then. If EP and Snow are back in doubt due to Tress's flip, then why should Ishy be immune? When I blocked him, I thought he was scum. How was I supposed to know we would need to consider whether he'd been cultified?

[bgrishinko]

Cult has nothing to do with it. I thought it was pretty apparent Ishy was town since he has been doubling EP, which was known. Also since when is a role doubler a mafia role? If Ishy was lying then EP would have to be as well.

[Gabriel Kross]

Hrm. Why in the world block Ishy at that point?

 

Because at the time I thought he was scum... duh? I've noted his buddying act with Nol. Then both Ishy and EP answered me well enough to convince me that he was town. That was as of this morning, before I left for work.

 

You ask if he was telling the truth. Well if you hadn't created the WIFOM by blocking Ishy we'd know for sure. You caused this mess. And what are the odds of a roleblocker and jailer and a mafia roleblocker?

 

Total logic fail here, since it wasn't until after I blocked him, not to mention after the posts by EP and myself this morning, that Tress flipped cult. We had no evidence of cult in this game till that point, just some wild speculation. And yet, you seem to be arguing that cult should have been a thing I should have accounted for in my reasoning before then. If EP and Snow are back in doubt due to Tress's flip, then why should Ishy be immune? When I blocked him, I thought he was scum. How was I supposed to know we would need to consider whether he'd been cultified?

 

your arguement is full of holes, it has been sketchy since I reavealed Day 3 BEFORE you blocked Ishy that he had been doubling me. Your "I don't trust Ishy" routine makes me think that you and Despo are mafia together. I still don't trust Verb but I don't think he is on the mafia team, likely he is cult.

[Kaylee]

I haven't been around due to RL issues with my daughter. I'm here now.

[Kaylee]

I am not a part of the cult. I am town.

[hazelkrs1]

Wowzers I did not expect that! That's absolutely fabulous for us tho, not only did lynching Tress confirm the existence of cult for us, which is always good to have happen early in games with a cult, but we got the Cult Leader as well!!!

 

This makes me extremely happy as I always feel rather impotent when it comes to finding a CL, they always seem to elude my grasp, and now we don't even have to worry about that. And if Tress had the ability to recruit each night, we need only find a max of 3 possible cult members, and this might be a little easy if we analyze the voting patterns from the past couple of days.

 

One thing that immediately jumped out to me when I saw that Tress had flipped as Jeor Mormont was that I remember earlier in the game, EP if I'm not mistaken was arguing that the Night's Watch would be town aligned, even tho he claimed to not be a part of it. I'll have to go back and hunt down those quotes, cause if I'm right about that and added to the fact that EP still had a vote on Verbal at the end of the day when it was clear that train would not gain any momentum, and EP has been plenty active enough so could have easily voted Tress had he been following along. I had thought that there was no reason to be suspicious of EP for quite a while, but this raises a lot of doubt for me in regards to his alignment.

 

Either way I think I shall try to make time for a massive reread tonight, as there are two days worth of voting pattern analyzing that could net town some major info, what with us having a successful scum AND CL lynch to look over. Will have to wait until after audit tho as that will take some time. Lemme make sure really quick tho to see if there was some other recent stuff I wanted to comment on

[hazelkrs1]

Ended up getting interrupted by audit So I just decided to go back and fetch the quotes I was looking for in regards to EP. I'm also going to try something new, for any big cases or multiquote wot's that I make, I'm gonna put them in spoiler tags so that those who want to skim over it may if they want to, and anyone who quotes those posts won't make the game thread unwieldy to peruse

 

Here's my mini-case on EP:

 

 

 

I'll go ahead and make this chronological to make this even easier.

 

There's a third? I only knew of Baratheon's and Stark's. Well to get us back focused. I'm John Snow. Roll unessesary at current, but I am town.

 

Good job there EP.

 

I just thought this was slightly odd cause when I was going back to fetch the quote from EP about Night's Watch being town, I noticed that the very next post after EP actually claimed was Tress, acting annoyed at EP's claim. There's something I want to get back to a bit later, which will explain why I'm pointing out interaction between Tress and him at this early of a stage

 

I don't consider Jeoffery a bastard, I consider him an illegitemate son.

 

What exactly do you think "bastard" means?

 

Seriously, EP. Character claiming this early, with really no reason... If I didn't know from previous experience (twice) that Kae doesn't do safe fake claims, I'd be voting you regardless.

 

However, all this strikes me as more likely being one of your usual plans. Problem is that I really don't believe you've flushed out scum with it.

 

This is basically a continuance of the previous post from Tress, where she goes into further detail about why claiming is a bad thing. The last couple of sentenced really stand out to me, she's basically trying to repeat what others had said at that point and that EP was misguided townie committing yet another blunder.

 

There's also a subtle part in the middle however, where Tress points out that Kae doesn't do safe claims, and while others pointed that out as well, I also remembered EP getting scolded for saying it:

 

Kae does not do mod given fake claims, everyone sees through her fake claims somehow lol.

 

It's not obvious, but there does seem to be an early link between EP and Tress

 

Ok completely lost all of my multi-quote data so I'n just going to wing it. John Snow was pushed because he went at me when I explained my original plan, that was impossible to pull off because I misunderstood my role, he parroted Des with his reasoning. (I'm surprised Des did not comment on that detail.) Anyone parroting Desp ever is suspect in my book. However he voted me because I said I misunderstood my role saying I was hinting, I was already claimed at that point, as Jon Snow it's pretty obvious I'll have some kind of role. He said in his post something about me having a big role and trying to play it off as nothing which is not what I did. That is what brought votes to John, I didn't really push that hard either.

 

On the Night's Watch thing, wouldn't they be considered the greater good in the series? That's just the impression I get from watching the show so I don't know what actually goes on. However I'm not Night's Watch afiliated, I am Town affiliated. I believe there was an arguement in another game that I kinda lead about with confirmed affiliations there could still be another affiliation. I was proven wrong in that game, so people bringing up possible third affiliations this game, kinda has me suspicious of you. Obviously Nol is exempt from this.

 

As far as the who I am debate it's just quibbling at this point, I am Jon Snow, either believe it or don't but mentioning it every 5 posts isn't really helping anything.

 

Here's the main quote I had been looking for. In retrospect, this post is all kinds of ping because it seems like EP is trying to lay the tracks for town buying that Night's Watch would be town as well, even though in Wombat's GoT game a little while back the Night's Watch was third party and was able to recruit then as well, albeit in an uncommon manner.

 

Combine that with something EP said very recently:

 

Yeah in the story Jon Snow becomes a member of the Nights Watch, that is what Red 1.0 was referring to.

 

Yes, but like I said, I never got any notice that I was in the Night's Watch this game, I was only told town. We didn't see Tress flip "Night's Watch" either. Just Cult leader, cult alignment. I honestly would have expected the White Walkers or that one rogue NW guy that you never actually get to see in season 2 to be the cult if there were one.

 

EP later admits that the mod confirming the cult to be Night's Watch makes him look bad, but here's the post where he tries wifoming whether or not Tress was Night's Watch. I also want to point out, that it's kind of ridiculous the way EP words the last little bit- "the cult if there were one". LOL it's been confirmed there IS one lmao. I'm fairly sure this was just a grammatical mistake on EP's part, I just thought it would be funny to point out.

 

Either way, all of this really looks bad on EP's part, especially those last two quotes.

 

So here's what I think might be going on. I think EP might have actually started the game out as cult, along with Tress. It's not unheard of for cult to start out with more than one player, especially if their recruiting ability was limited and the mod was trying to achieve balance. And having a Jailer to go along with a CL kind of makes perfect sense, as the Jailer can protect the CL at the cost of them being able to recruit that night (and there might be something that prevented EP from jailing Tress, who knows) but more importantly the Jailer can also try and block the mafia from NKing his CL, or the Cop from viewing her.

 

This mainly came about due to me thinking about EP's quote from day 1 about the Night's Watch being town, and altho it could ping in the sense that it seemed to be trying and defend the NW, it also didn't seem to make sense chronologically, since EP wouldn't have been recruited by then (unless the CL was able to recruit during the day, which I doubt). Yet there still seemed to be that early link between him and Tress.

 

And something else to consider here is Tress's claim. Unlyncher for EP... which had the lynch stalled a little bit might have helped their team out immensely as others might have noticed a link between Tress and EP themselves, and in this way it would make sense for Tress to have defended him the way she did early on. And there's also the wifom there because to most it seems like EP was never really in any danger of being lynched, but after Tress's claim it would have seemed even more strange.

 

Add to that that EP has recently talked about going after whoever he thinks the backup CL might be, even tho town has no reason to believe or know of such role's existence, and this all makes me think that EP is the backup CL.

 

After all, it makes even more sense when you think about it canonically, which I can't quite go into detail as there are spoiler alerts, but those who have read up to the latest book in the series know what I'm talking about.

 

 

Night 1 I jailed Verb

Night 2 I jailed Verb and Darthe

Night 3 I jailed Verb and Desp

Night 4 will be jailing Kaylee.

 

This last quote is insurance in case my theory about EP starting out as cult is incorrect, as he still would have been a great recruit target (as would Ed, which makes us really lucky the CL was lynched before she had a chance to recruit him).

 

Not all the time, but most of the time when someone is recruited they lose their abilities. So if we find a discrepancy in this and it turns out he didn't actually Jail someone one of those nights, we'll pretty much know that he was recruited (allowing for chances that he was blocked, but Basel claimed RB'er and says he didn't block EP any night.)

 

 

 

Andddddd done. Ended up being longer than I thought. Anyhoo, I'm gonna catch up on other games really quick before I tackle the really big reread

[dicetosser1]

ok let me get this straight

 

EP you have been getting doubled but didnt tonight. Ishy has been doing the doubling and it seems as picked noone other then you to double.

 

Now ishy says "trust me" and you DONT get doubled

 

Have i got thaqt straight??

 

Your post doesn't make any sense at all, and the way you so "gallantly" stuck up for Song earlier when Songstress aka Song aka Songtsie aka Tress really sits off, the only one that'd make sense to correct people other than Tress herself is Ishy. Why you made a big deal about it makes no sense since Song of Ice and Fire is not playing this game.

 

first off i was trying to make sense of what i had READ!

 

As for TRESS I got pointedly reminded and watched others get reminded back when she joined the BT to call her Tress. Its not that hard to remember and i find it rude to be calling someone by a name other then the one they have told people to call them. Hence I pointed it out and then OH NO!! i actually responded to responses regarding it! how could i !!!??? /sarcasm

[hazelkrs1]

Caught up in my other games but it looks like I won't have time to do the big reread and votes analysis before I leave work, so I'll try and do that when I get home before I go to sleep

 

For now tho an updated list of people I'm wary of:

 

Razen (still, and he pretty much disappeared for all of day 4)

Rand (didn't like the fact that his last two day's worth of votes have been tag a long votes mentioning other's cases)

Red (seems woefully confused and behind the times, which is strange for her, and in general her activity has dropped WAY off since she replaced back into the game)

Basel (for past stuff I've already mentioned, and for electing to block Ishy last night, which is strange. Plus, mafia RB'er anybody?)

Cyan (mainly gut feeling, I think there was specific stuff but I can get to that later)

[beanie]

Oh how lovely, my first game with a cult. So wait, questions, sorry If cult can recruit one person every night, but the cult leader is the only one who can recruit, that means that now they're stuck with only 3 culty people right? So generally is it better to try to lynch mafia or cult? Also, since cult doesn't have a recruiter, are they still considered a threat to the town? And if not, is it possible to win while they're still alive?

 

And Despo O.o you're actually going to read through all 116 pages?

[michellem]

IMPORTANT MESSAGE:

 

My computer just died, so I will have difficulties in the games the next few days since I gotta be on my phone, wich really doesnt like dm. Im sorry for any inconveniance and Ill try my best to be here as much as possible.

[bgrishinko]

@Despo - I went back and looked at that too... but then I decided I can't really hold EP's Day 1 talk about cult/Night's watch against him unless he is backup leader, which I doubt... cause Jailer. I think that would have been a bit overpowered since cults already are a tough nut to crack normally. So if he was cult to start with, I severely doubt he'd be able to recruit now.

 

However, it does make a certain amount of sense that Snow would be Cult given that Kae confirmed Night's Watch = Cult.... but not a recruiting role. Combine that with looking at the situation with Basel Gill claiming town roleblocker (if that is to be believed at this time), EP claiming Jailer, and there being a mafia roleblocker as well.... and I enable blocking roles... it could make sense that EP is a cult Jailer. Then my role would enable one on each team. Clever setup.

[Gabriel Kross]

Except I am not cult. Also Desp's "case" is laughable.

 

Ended up getting interrupted by audit So I just decided to go back and fetch the quotes I was looking for in regards to EP. I'm also going to try something new, for any big cases or multiquote wot's that I make, I'm gonna put them in spoiler tags so that those who want to skim over it may if they want to, and anyone who quotes those posts won't make the game thread unwieldy to peruse

 

Here's my mini-case on EP:

 

 

 

I'll go ahead and make this chronological to make this even easier.

 

There's a third? I only knew of Baratheon's and Stark's. Well to get us back focused. I'm John Snow. Roll unessesary at current, but I am town.

 

Good job there EP.

 

I just thought this was slightly odd cause when I was going back to fetch the quote from EP about Night's Watch being town, I noticed that the very next post after EP actually claimed was Tress, acting annoyed at EP's claim. There's something I want to get back to a bit later, which will explain why I'm pointing out interaction between Tress and him at this early of a stage

 

I don't consider Jeoffery a bastard, I consider him an illegitemate son.

 

What exactly do you think "bastard" means?

 

Seriously, EP. Character claiming this early, with really no reason... If I didn't know from previous experience (twice) that Kae doesn't do safe fake claims, I'd be voting you regardless.

 

However, all this strikes me as more likely being one of your usual plans. Problem is that I really don't believe you've flushed out scum with it.

 

This is basically a continuance of the previous post from Tress, where she goes into further detail about why claiming is a bad thing. The last couple of sentenced really stand out to me, she's basically trying to repeat what others had said at that point and that EP was misguided townie committing yet another blunder.

 

There's also a subtle part in the middle however, where Tress points out that Kae doesn't do safe claims, and while others pointed that out as well, I also remembered EP getting scolded for saying it:

 

Kae does not do mod given fake claims, everyone sees through her fake claims somehow lol.

 

It's not obvious, but there does seem to be an early link between EP and Tress

 

Ok completely lost all of my multi-quote data so I'n just going to wing it. John Snow was pushed because he went at me when I explained my original plan, that was impossible to pull off because I misunderstood my role, he parroted Des with his reasoning. (I'm surprised Des did not comment on that detail.) Anyone parroting Desp ever is suspect in my book. However he voted me because I said I misunderstood my role saying I was hinting, I was already claimed at that point, as Jon Snow it's pretty obvious I'll have some kind of role. He said in his post something about me having a big role and trying to play it off as nothing which is not what I did. That is what brought votes to John, I didn't really push that hard either.

 

On the Night's Watch thing, wouldn't they be considered the greater good in the series? That's just the impression I get from watching the show so I don't know what actually goes on. However I'm not Night's Watch afiliated, I am Town affiliated. I believe there was an arguement in another game that I kinda lead about with confirmed affiliations there could still be another affiliation. I was proven wrong in that game, so people bringing up possible third affiliations this game, kinda has me suspicious of you. Obviously Nol is exempt from this.

 

As far as the who I am debate it's just quibbling at this point, I am Jon Snow, either believe it or don't but mentioning it every 5 posts isn't really helping anything.

 

Here's the main quote I had been looking for. In retrospect, this post is all kinds of ping because it seems like EP is trying to lay the tracks for town buying that Night's Watch would be town as well, even though in Wombat's GoT game a little while back the Night's Watch was third party and was able to recruit then as well, albeit in an uncommon manner.

 

Combine that with something EP said very recently:

 

Yeah in the story Jon Snow becomes a member of the Nights Watch, that is what Red 1.0 was referring to.

 

Yes, but like I said, I never got any notice that I was in the Night's Watch this game, I was only told town. We didn't see Tress flip "Night's Watch" either. Just Cult leader, cult alignment. I honestly would have expected the White Walkers or that one rogue NW guy that you never actually get to see in season 2 to be the cult if there were one.

 

EP later admits that the mod confirming the cult to be Night's Watch makes him look bad, but here's the post where he tries wifoming whether or not Tress was Night's Watch. I also want to point out, that it's kind of ridiculous the way EP words the last little bit- "the cult if there were one". LOL it's been confirmed there IS one lmao. I'm fairly sure this was just a grammatical mistake on EP's part, I just thought it would be funny to point out.

 

Either way, all of this really looks bad on EP's part, especially those last two quotes.

 

So here's what I think might be going on. I think EP might have actually started the game out as cult, along with Tress. It's not unheard of for cult to start out with more than one player, especially if their recruiting ability was limited and the mod was trying to achieve balance. And having a Jailer to go along with a CL kind of makes perfect sense, as the Jailer can protect the CL at the cost of them being able to recruit that night (and there might be something that prevented EP from jailing Tress, who knows) but more importantly the Jailer can also try and block the mafia from NKing his CL, or the Cop from viewing her.

 

This mainly came about due to me thinking about EP's quote from day 1 about the Night's Watch being town, and altho it could ping in the sense that it seemed to be trying and defend the NW, it also didn't seem to make sense chronologically, since EP wouldn't have been recruited by then (unless the CL was able to recruit during the day, which I doubt). Yet there still seemed to be that early link between him and Tress.

 

And something else to consider here is Tress's claim. Unlyncher for EP... which had the lynch stalled a little bit might have helped their team out immensely as others might have noticed a link between Tress and EP themselves, and in this way it would make sense for Tress to have defended him the way she did early on. And there's also the wifom there because to most it seems like EP was never really in any danger of being lynched, but after Tress's claim it would have seemed even more strange.

 

Add to that that EP has recently talked about going after whoever he thinks the backup CL might be, even tho town has no reason to believe or know of such role's existence, and this all makes me think that EP is the backup CL.

 

After all, it makes even more sense when you think about it canonically, which I can't quite go into detail as there are spoiler alerts, but those who have read up to the latest book in the series know what I'm talking about.

 

 

Night 1 I jailed Verb

Night 2 I jailed Verb and Darthe

Night 3 I jailed Verb and Desp

Night 4 will be jailing Kaylee.

 

This last quote is insurance in case my theory about EP starting out as cult is incorrect, as he still would have been a great recruit target (as would Ed, which makes us really lucky the CL was lynched before she had a chance to recruit him).

 

Not all the time, but most of the time when someone is recruited they lose their abilities. So if we find a discrepancy in this and it turns out he didn't actually Jail someone one of those nights, we'll pretty much know that he was recruited (allowing for chances that he was blocked, but Basel claimed RB'er and says he didn't block EP any night.)

 

 

 

First off, I never played wombats GoT game so Desp expecting me to know that is rediculous, also was that the game with like 5 different factions?

 

secondly I wasn't trying to paint the NW as anything as I had said I had no reason to believe NW was even in the game since I'm not in it this game.

 

Thirdly his comment about my reflection of my own personal early game specylation that I didn't share due to thinking this game was solid town vs mafia due to DPR's game is rediculous. I was saying that early game if I had to pick a group to be cult it would have been the White Walkers, Desp isd trying to twist it around to say something it does not.

 

Also, on the Jailor comments why don't you admit to being Jailed? Obviously Darthe was a day ability and Verb refuses to give relevent information, since you were targetted on the previous night you could confirm that I still have my ability.

 

I find it funny that Desp comes guns blazing at me since I no longer believed him to be town.

 

Desp and Basel are mafia.

[ed2funy]

I actually believe Despo may be Cult.

[Gabriel Kross]

I actually believe Despo may be Cult.

 

Not mafia? O.o I'm down to lynch that turkey either way but I think he is mafia.

[bgrishinko]

Yeah, I'll agree EP that most of his case wasn't worth much. I even pointed out some flaws in it. But the idea of a mafia RB, Town RB, and cult RB kinda makes sense to me given my role and rung true to me.

 

That being said, I'm not sold on Basel as town given his odd block of Ishy... seriously, still don't understand how you could consider Ishy mafia given his role and EP verifying it. So if he is mafia RB then I'm more inclined to believe you as Jailer. Concerning Despo, he was vote controlled though, so he's got that going for him as not being mafia.

 

Stiiiillll waiting for Red to show up.

[bgrishinko]

That should read: "So if he is mafia RB, then I'm more inclined to believe you as Town Jailer."

[Gabriel Kross]

BG, I stated earlier that I believe the vote control to have been staged as a last ditch effort to save darthe, it's the kind of thing he'd think up, I was just mafia with him in the WoT game

[bgrishinko]

BG, I stated earlier that I believe the vote control to have been staged as a last ditch effort to save darthe, it's the kind of thing he'd think up, I was just mafia with him in the WoT game

 

Maybe. Has anyone else been vote controlled?

[RandA lThor]

Not me.

[Gabriel Kross]

BG, I stated earlier that I believe the vote control to have been staged as a last ditch effort to save darthe, it's the kind of thing he'd think up, I was just mafia with him in the WoT game

 

Maybe. Has anyone else been vote controlled?

 

If so they didn't hint at it.

[RandA lThor]

If someone has been vote controlled, I seriously think they would know to tell us by now. I think it might be x-shot, or possibly 1-shot.

[Sakaea]

http://timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20121025T19&p0=782

 

About 6 hours until the DL, everyone. Get those NAs in or they are forfeit.

[Gabriel Kross]

If someone has been vote controlled, I seriously think they would know to tell us by now. I think it might be x-shot, or possibly 1-shot.

 

I think it's a 0-shot.

[RandA lThor]

If someone has been vote controlled, I seriously think they would know to tell us by now. I think it might be x-shot, or possibly 1-shot.

 

I think it's a 0-shot.

 

I c what u did thar.