Jump to content
We have a Patreon! Support this website and get exclusive content ×

DRAGONMOUNT

 A WHEEL OF TIME COMMUNITY

[ADVANCED] WOT Mafia: The Great Hunt - GAME OVER!

Alanna

By Alanna
in DM Mafia Games

Recommended Posts

Darthe Spam Master

Darthe

Posted
Posted

It does but has a good chance to costs us more than help. Either way can allow for some benefits or risk but these plays are odd from you Nol.

  • Replies 1.7k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
Sakaea Master

Sakaea

Posted
Posted

Yeah, he could kill someone for us, but he has a better chance of hitting town than not at this point. Rather lynch LZM now.

Nolder Spam Master

Nolder

Posted
Posted

Anyone has a "better chance of hitting town than not" don't they?

At least if it's not random then we can fight the odds with logic and other such things

 

I'd just like to note that if You, Darthe, and Des all voted Darthe it would be a lynch instead of random

So this is you guys choosing to let that happen

Sakaea Master

Sakaea

Posted
Posted

I will switch my vote to avoid a random. I already said that. You pushing this lynch is pinging hard, and making me not want to lynch Darthe even more.

Nolder Spam Master

Nolder

Posted
Posted

I believe the Uno claim, but unfortunately, with a DL in 3 hours, and activity being what it has been, I don't know that we can get enough votes transferred to LZM in time. Am totally willing to try tho. And I'll be online most of the morning, so will be able to change back if utterly necessary.

 

Unvote, Vote LZM

Oh

Yeah I guess you did

I got too concerned about the vote on LZM and just went blind to everything else

Sakaea Master

Sakaea

Posted
Posted

Vote Count

(7) Darthe - EP, LZM, Rand, Nolder, Shinori, Sakaea, JLM

(5) LZM - notbob, GF, Nightstrike, Darthe, dice

(1) Nolder - Despo

 

Not Voting (3): BG, Niel, lolguy,

 

Deadline is Monday, 9/24 @ 2PM CST. That's in about 3 hours.

 

With 16 alive, it takes 9 to lynch.

 

Deadline in 1 hour and 11 minutes, everyone.

hazelkrs1 Spam Master

hazelkrs1

Posted
Posted

Okay, caught up.

 

With the deadline an hour away, and Darthe claiming a revenge killer, I think it's really obvious at this point that we should consolidate on Darthe.

 

Unvote, Vote Darthe

 

Alright and I'm just gonna say this, I think LZM is a bomb, so Darthe shouldn't target him as that could potentially waste two roles. LZM's self vote, and other strange behavior, plus his cryptic message about mafia not liking it if they lynched him, all kinda made it seem a little obvious that he was prob the bomb. When I thought that might be the case yesterday, I tried getting the mafia teams to try and target him to take one of them out, but it looks like that didn't work, and at this point I doubt they'll target him, and mafia usually hate to hammer people so I doubt it would be useful to try and use his role in a lynch.

 

More detailed thoughts to follow

hazelkrs1 Spam Master

hazelkrs1

Posted
Posted

Still like LZM at this point. I should be on till the DL.

 

Such a scummy slip. These two are obviously mafia together!

 

LZM could be a mafia bomb, so this is possible, but either way you should take out NotBob with your ability. Pretty sure he's scum

Sakaea Master

Sakaea

Posted
Posted

Alright then, unvote vote Darthe

 

I think Darthe should take out LZM, because I don't trust that he's just a bomb. The self vote thing still bothers me.

hazelkrs1 Spam Master

hazelkrs1

Posted
Posted

I can go with that too, but I could also go with LZM. Unvote, vote Darthe. I'll be online tomorrow, so I'll be here to change my vote if necessary.

 

Will be gone all day again today, going rockhounding again. Found so much yesterday :biggrin:

 

Rockhounding? :tongue:

 

Also, I saw this more recent post as well:

 

I believe the Uno claim, but unfortunately, with a DL in 3 hours, and activity being what it has been, I don't know that we can get enough votes transferred to LZM in time. Am totally willing to try tho. And I'll be online most of the morning, so will be able to change back if utterly necessary.

 

Unvote, Vote LZM

 

The thing I don't like here is Kae saying in both posts that she can move her vote for consolidation purposes. Stating it twice seems strange, and kinds seems like her vote on LZM is just for appearance sake so she can look like she believed Darthe but had to vote him anyways.

 

I dunno tho, Kae is right and that she usually seems scummy to me. Could just be a continuation of my apparent bias towards her, but I do really think she's some kind of antitown role in this game

 

Damn that was quick? By the way do any of you have reasons? I should probably mention that I am UNO, a special revenge killer. If you NK me we die together. If you kill me a choose one of you to take with me. Go ahead, see what happens.

 

Hmmm revenge killer. Still catching up so I'm not sure if we'll be able to secure a lynch on anyone else but you, but if it does have to be you this is somewhat more reassuring, as you can possibly take out mafia or third party with your kill.

 

If I was you I'd target Nol, Kae, or NotBob. Got pretty solid antitown reads on all of them.

 

As a fourth option you could take EP out, I could easily see him being mafia. I could also easily see him being a townie pushing terrible arguments again tho, since I've seen that many times before :rolleyes:

 

That being said, I personally wouldn't mind that much if you took out EP anyways even if you DID have a town read on him, since he was the biggest pusher on your lynch. Personally I have no problem with such type plays, in fact in BG's Earthbound game I was pretty sure Nol was town, but he pissed me off when he made a mistake on an important lynch, so I Punished him that night, which ended up vig killing him lawls

 

:tongue:

 

Anyways choose w/e target seems best to you if that happens, while some of your ideas have seemed a little out there I think you've had good reads in general this game

 

Oh and really quickly just gonna mention thy I totally called this happening. Why don't you all do me a favor and vote on who you want me to kill tonight? And don't forge the freaking list I made it obviously intimidated some mafioso, this is quite the push.

In order of preference: Des, Nightstrike, LZM, Notbob, lolguy, BG

 

I dont see my name on there.. I may kill you tonight now, it wouldn't be a bad time to start convincing me why I shouldn't.

 

:huh:

 

Why would Nol want you to kill yourself with your revenge kill? Don't get me wrong I think he's mafia or possibly Forsaken, but I think here you might have missed what he was saying

 

Interesting. For the point of it I am switching my vote back to LZM here, that has a better chance of going somewhere. Despo, I don't think you will get Nol today.

 

Unvote Vote LZM

 

Nope, doesn't look like it either. Good news is I doubt if he's mafia his team will kill me tonight as they'll prob try to try the frame job again tomorrow

 

i have tho.

 

you know what just struck me? Darthe has been fairly forceful this game. Uno is a forceful character.

 

 

i find LZM much more suspicious then Darthe. And i DONT like the sudden push on Darthe. EP has been pushing him blindly...but thats just EP tho he is next on my list cause i think he is teamed with LZM.

 

Vote LZM

 

Bolded: Very few players role play their character as they're playing, it's not really that helpful for town. Character hinting really only hurts town

 

Here is the thing. My own list bugs me. I know people say that statistics and math do not have a place in mafia but that is because those people have a bias against math. Quite frankly a roster should always have mafia spaced through it evenly. It doesn't but almost every game I have ever played in has them close together, with the ends being more likely to produce mafia because of the way a random number table works (the mathematical device used by Random.org). What is bugging me is this:

 

15. notbob

16. dicetosser

17. Despo

18. Shinori – Claims Elayne Trakand

19. Sorcha - Nynaeve, Town Healer, Killed Night 1

20. Darthe - Claims Uno

21. Rand - Claims Loial

22. lolguy

 

as opposed to this:

 

1.Wombat JLM

2. John Snow - Rand al'Thor, Town Searcher and Watchmaker, Killed Day 2

3. Peace - Renna, Mafia Vote Thief, Lynched Day 2

4. EP

5. wheeloftime Turin

6. Player - Egwene Al'Vere, Town Dreaming God

7. Tiinker Nolder, strange actions lately - middling read

 

Does anyone else see the disparity in color here?

If we can assume a minimum of 6-7 anti-town characters in a game of 22 (which we can) then the top list should not be possible.

The improbability, according to my calculator, of 6 people in a row being town is .0035 out of 1.0000. There is almost no way. it's .35%.

So my list is somewhat wrong. However, I do not know where at so we will have to see what the concensus says.

 

Seems like another erroneous conclusion here. I don't think the math works like you thinks it does, in that it calculates an independant probability for each player as it assigns their roles, thus making consecutive players with the same alignment less likely. I think it assigns all the roles at pretty much the same time, so each probability is not multiplied against eachother.

 

Your reads could be off, as I think Dice doesn't really have that much townie behavior in his favor this game, and Shinori I'm still unsure about, but it seems very possible that all of those players are town and that doesn't even seem like a vast improbability.

 

I'm gonna include my responses to Nol in a separate post.

 

But, I'll take care of that later, as the deadline is looming so we don't need a distraction like that right now. Plus I got some errands so I'll be back in a bit

Sakaea Master

Sakaea

Posted
Posted

Rockhounding = digging for crystals. So much fun.

 

Taking me out would be a bad idea. Despite Des and his anti town read, I'm quite useful to town.

Sakaea Master

Sakaea

Posted
Posted

For the love of the Light, deadline is in 22 minutes, people!

 

You scared?

 

Of a random? Damn straight, I hate 'em.

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Go to topic listing

About Dragonmount

Dragonmount is a fan-maintained website dedicated to Robert Jordan's Wheel of Time fantasy series. It is an online community of people from all over the world who have come here to experience the series to the fullest.

Twitter

Facebook

Copyright © 2024, Dragonmount Powered by Invision Community

© All borrowed artwork is used with permission. The Wheel of Time books & franchise are © Robert Jordan & the Bandersnatch Group.

The phrases "The Wheel of Time‚" and "The Dragon Reborn", and the snake-wheel symbol are trademarks of Robert Jordan & the Bandersnatch Group.

×
×
  • Create New...