Is ever victorious army a myth?

[muddasssir]

This is a question that has always disturbed me. I mean Mat runs amok and kills few thousands of their forces Tylin Khirgee has a sizable fore with her Rodel killed a force of about fifty thousand outside that city and had a force almost double that size on his tail. exactly how many people does Seanchan have on this side of the ocean? it puts just warriors at several hundred thousand. Important thing to remember is that they did not have travelling until recently. It means that they can only cross the Aryth ocean on their ships. Also these ships need to carry grolms, raken, toraken, all the traders and craftsmen. it literally means that they will need ships in excess of 50,000. Any theories as to how is that possible?

[Suttree]

This is a question that has always disturbed me. I mean Mat runs amok and kills few thousands of their forces Tylin Khirgee has a sizable fore with her Rodel killed a force of about fifty thousand outside that city and had a force almost double that size on his tail. exactly how many people does Seanchan have on this side of the ocean? it puts just warriors at several hundred thousand. Important thing to remember is that they did not have travelling until recently. It means that they can only cross the Aryth ocean on their ships. Also these ships need to carry grolms, raken, toraken, all the traders and craftsmen. it literally means that they will need ships in excess of 50,000. Any theories as to how is that possible?

 

Here is a nice little military break down for each force...

 

http://wotfaq.dragonmount.com/node/136

[muddasssir]

that is exactly what I am saying how did they got those numbers across the ocean? There is no way that they could have crossed in even 500 ships. Therefore these numbers do not make any sense.

[SuperFade]

Magic. The Seanchan have as many soldiers as the plot demands. It's not limited to the Seanchan either - there was a topic a while back where a user pointed out that there isn't enough farmland in the Westlands to support the massive numbers of soldiers every country has been fielding.

[SylvanFox]

Not all of those troops are from Seanchan. There are Taraboners, Altarans, Amadicians, probably Sea Folk, and whoever else the Seanchan could sign up (and we've seen many cases in the story of people being willing to join a passing army just because they think it will get them fed, so the Seanchan stability and reputation may have been enticing).

[muddasssir]

Ok I think it is a fair comment but out if nearly one fourth of that force has come from Seanchan than it puts the total number of Seanchan in Randland well over 100,000. soldiers plus equipment, mounts, support staff, other people and the total becomes untransportable. Especially since they did not have travelling at that time.

[cwbys21]

I don't know about that. Seanchan is supposed to be a pretty big place, they could easily get enough boats together to send over all those people, especially since this is their big Reclaiming, they would have been building boats for years getting ready for it.

[Agitel]

that is exactly what I am saying how did they got those numbers across the ocean? There is no way that they could have crossed in even 500 ships. Therefore these numbers do not make any sense.

 

The Seanchan brought over well 500 ships. A Tuon chapter gives some perspective. I think it's her first when she's first sailing to Ebou Dar. She talks of how many were left in Tanchico and how many are sailing to Ebou Dar and stuff like that. Over 500,000 Seanchan came across, including civilians.

 

They've been building these ships for two hundred years. The description given in the books says to me that they're carracks, also referred to as "great ships" (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carracks). With Damane for military weapons and not having to rely on things like cannons, and being specifically outfitted to carry passengers, they probably could have carried near 1000 people each, at least.

 

EDIT: For definitive proof:

 

The Victory of Kidron rolled on long sea swells, making the gilded lamps in the stern cabin swing on their gimbals, but Tuon sat calmly as the razor in Selucia's sure hand slid across her scalp. Through the tall stern windows she could see other greatships crashing through the gray-green swells in sprays of white, hundreds of them row on row, stretching to the horizon. Four times as many had been left at Tanchico. The Rhyagelle, Those Who Come Home. The Corenne, the Return, had begun.

 

Hundreds (plural!) of greatships sail for Ebou Dar. Four times that number were left in Tanchico.

 

That means probably at least 1,000 ships. That's an average of about 500 people each (though we probably can't assume an even distribution given some are military, some are civilian, some have to carry animals), and plenty of room for supplies is left over.

[SuperFade]

Over 500,000 people? That's half a million. That's an insanely huge number, and it's not even counting the number of horses, grolm, raken and other animals they would have needed to take with them. I can't recall if the amount of time the journey took is ever stated, but such a massive number of people and animals would require a colossal amount of food and fresh water for even a month's worth of sea travel. Even a thousand ships probably wouldn't be enough.

 

Like many fantasy authors Robert Jordan isn't very good with the scale of armies. Even in medieval times it was extremely rare to have an army of more than 10,000 soldiers on the move at any time. The First Crusade, which is the closest analogue to the return that I can think of right now, certainly didn't have more than around 30,000 men. A force of 500,000 is so big it's nearly impossible to comprehend. Perhaps it's just my background as a historian speaking but whenever numbers are brought up I find knocking a '0' off the end makes things far more believable.

 

Of course, you can just say that this is fantasy and that it doesn't have to make exact sense.

[Agitel]

Over 500,000 people? That's half a million. That's an insanely huge number, and it's not even counting the number of horses, grolm, raken and other animals they would have needed to take with them. I can't recall if the amount of time the journey took is ever stated, but such a massive number of people and animals would require a colossal amount of food and fresh water for even a month's worth of sea travel. Even a thousand ships probably wouldn't be enough.

 

Like many fantasy authors Robert Jordan isn't very good with the scale of armies. Even in medieval times it was extremely rare to have an army of more than 10,000 soldiers on the move at any time. The First Crusade, which is the closest analogue to the return that I can think of right now, certainly didn't have more than around 30,000 men. A force of 500,000 is so big it's nearly impossible to comprehend. Perhaps it's just my background as a historian speaking but whenever numbers are brought up I find knocking a '0' off the end makes things far more believable.

 

Of course, you can just say that this is fantasy and that it doesn't have to make exact sense.

 

That wasn't all military, that included the massive number of civilians as well, which I think up make a large majority of the newcomers. I'm going to back off of the 500,000 number, though I'm fairly confident that I've seen this substantiated. As for the size of armies throughout the series, it's stated a few times throughout that up until the "present day" of the Third Age armies rarely got over a few tens of thousands, if that. It's the extraordinary circumstances drumming up such large armies in Andor, Tear, Illian, etc... This is a continent more than twice the size of Europe with a population, as I see it, well over 100,000,000. Possibly (probably, imo) larger. Some seem to think the world we see in the stories is mostly empty space, though and have trouble putting 50,000,000 in such an area (which I see as a gross underestimate). The area could at least support far higher numbers at that level of technology, especially when health in general seems far better than it was during comparable tech periods in Europe, and the area hasn't had any major hits to its population in 1,000 years.

 

All I can gather from the Return is that the Seanchan use carracks and have a minimum of 1,000 of them, if not much more than that, which is certainly possible within the confines of the story. Seanchan itself as an empire covers probably the same amount of landmass as all of North and South America.

 

The size of these nations certainly stretches the limit of belief. Perhaps a slave army of magic users makes it possible. I can't say.

 

I've no basis to determine the feasibility of any of the logistics. I just wanted to add some of the details I do know to the discussion.

[muddasssir]

when you think of thousand people being carried per ship you are talking about modern nuclear powered or steam powered troops transport which can carry that or may be even a higher number quite easily but we are talking about sail ships and you cannot take more than few hundreds at times as you also have to carry provisions like food they eat, fodder for animals other miscellaneous stuff. Also, there was a scene where Seanchan are rolling out on the wagons taking their farm implements and everything which is going to take even more space. If you have any idea about a sale ship with lines and everything and the structural integrity. than you will realize that there was a reason that you could make a sail ship only so big.

[Agitel]

http://en.wikipedia....i/Great_Michael

http://en.wikipedia....2ce_%C3%A0_Dieu

 

The Michael had a crew of 300, had 120 gunmen, and could carry up to 1,000 soldiers on top of that. The Henry Grace à Dieu had a complement of 700-1,000. Obviously, the number of people a ship can carry for two to three months is much different than its max capabilities (we can probably assume good winds behind the Seanchan fleet, considering they had damane), but these were large ships. We don't have a definite number of ships, just "hundreds" sailing for Ebou Dar and "four times that many" left in Tanchico. Perhaps we can work backwards and just figure out how many ships would be needed and see if the numbers make sense with the information we're given.

 

What if we were to assume 300 people on average per ship (and I do mean average, perhaps some ships could be higher and some could carry animals)? If we go off the idea that 500,000 Seanchan came across the ocean, we get 1,650 ships, that's 330 on sail to Ebou Dar and 1,320 left in Ebou Dar. Maybe 200 on average? That's 2,500 ships, 500 on sail to Ebou Dar and 2,000 in Tanchico. I'm better with the first estimate, but that's just to give us an idea. And maybe 500,000 people is an overestimate (that 500,000 includes civilians too, remember).

 

Also, remember, that a good part of the "Seanchan" force in the westlands are Taraboners and recruits from the Almoth Plains.

[SuperFade]

Whatever the number of people carried, that's still an enormous number of ships. The Great Michael took 3 - 4 years to build, and even if you assume that dozens were being built at a time it would still have taken centuries to build a fleet of thousands of them. By the time the last ships were completed the first would have already begun to rot in the water. Even if the Seanchan were crazy enough to build drydocks for all the ships there would still be maintenance issues.

 

Eh, I guess it's just one of those things that destroys your suspension of disbelief if you think about it hard enough, like Aiel being superhuman runners who can keep pace with horses for long periods of time.

[Tom Sawyer]

Ya, the Seanchan do seem to be almost as bad as the Trollocs in their ability to get a couple hundred thousand soldiers slain and not have their numbers really diminish any, but at least the Trollocs can pull replacements out of the portal stones.

 

The size of armies does seem to have spiralled out of control over the course of the series. At the beginning, the Whitecloaks were able to be a major military force with only a few thousand soldiers and now if you can't field over a hundred thousand people in a land where there's not enough for anyone to eat, you're some kind of chump.

[Agitel]

Whatever the number of people carried, that's still an enormous number of ships. The Great Michael took 3 - 4 years to build, and even if you assume that dozens were being built at a time it would still have taken centuries to build a fleet of thousands of them. By the time the last ships were completed the first would have already begun to rot in the water. Even if the Seanchan were crazy enough to build drydocks for all the ships there would still be maintenance issues.

 

Eh, I guess it's just one of those things that destroys your suspension of disbelief if you think about it hard enough, like Aiel being superhuman runners who can keep pace with horses for long periods of time.

 

I agree 100% on the Aiel stamina. It's pretty ridiculous.

 

You have a fair criticism on ship construction. In order to do it in a short frame of time where the wood wouldn't rot, they'd have to have been constructing at an extraordinary pace. The other assumption is that wood rotting isn't an issue. It may be easy to chock it up to 'lol fantasy', but I think the safest assumption is to assume one of two things: 1) the wood's been 'treated' with the One Power to prevent rot and decay, perhaps a specific talent that wasn't lost or was rediscovered on that side of the ocean or 2) the wood's been worked by Ogier using their own talents. The Seanchan Empire includes the Ogier on that continent. Whether or not Jordan had considered this issue? I can't say. Perhaps not. However, if it was brought to his attention it doesn't seem like to much of a stretch to work either or both of these into the story.

[muddasssir]

Ok since we are on the topic of Seanchan do you not think the future that Avi saw is impossible. I mean Seanchan has this huge drawback that their damanes cannot link. I mean just get a circle jump in wherever there is a damane channeling smash her pick her up and jump out simple. How many damanes there are they cannot hurt a circle alone however powerful they are. Than hey can take advantage of including ashaaman in their circle. that means they can make even larger circles. It just gives them a huge tactical advantage which is going to be very hard to neutralize. Especially, since Wise ones have no compunction in using OP in a battle or killing with it. So, Avi's story might be a good way to develop a plot but is going o be really lame if put into practise. Do you agree?

[Tom Sawyer]

Ya, we saw with the attack on the Tower that when Aes Sedai put a circle together, they can swat any number of damane like flies. In an all-out fight, it's pop guns against bazookas.

[muddasssir]

Than it brings us back to square one doesn't it? I mean that there is no way that Seanchan can beat Aiel with such an overwhelming tactical advantage. If aiel lose it from here it is going to make a complete mockery ofAiel being brilliant warriors and tactician since tEotW.

[kght22]

Than it brings us back to square one doesn't it? I mean that there is no way that Seanchan can beat Aiel with such an overwhelming tactical advantage. If aiel lose it from here it is going to make a complete mockery ofAiel being brilliant warriors and tactician since tEotW.

the aiel hve never fought the seanchan, and the way they train their generals has been equated to how the "great captains" act in war. and it isnt like the aiel never loose battles, nor do the seanchan. mesama was known for having fought aiel in shienar, and he was too young for that to have been during the aiel war, and of course lan speaks of strategies to use against the aiel in tsr. i think it would be a pretty even match if they had equal numbers, but the seanchan would have the larger initial force in aviendah's vision. it realy would come down to a flip of the coin once the other powers broke the peace. apparently when that coin got flipped it landed on tails.

[muddasssir]

i am sorry but may be I did not make myself clear. You see according to a link somewhere I read that AIEL field about 400,000 spears on this side of Dragon wall. suttree posted the link above somewhere. Whereas Seanchan can field about 300,000 troops. Also, damanes cannot link while WOs can. with a numerical advantage of 4:3 and a tactical advantage of having bazookas against pop guns as someone rightly pointed out above how can they lose?

[kght22]

i am sorry but may be I did not make myself clear. You see according to a link somewhere I read that AIEL field about 900,000 spears on this side of Dragon wall. suttree posted the link above somewhere. Whereas Seanchan can field about 500,000 troops. Also, damanes cannot link while WOs can. with a numerical advantage of 1.8:1 and a tactical advantage of having bazookas against pop guns as someone rightly pointed out above how can they lose?

in aviendah's vision. i wonder how many aiel survived, they had one camp. a big one i bet, but it is post tarmon gai'don

[master]

Ya, the Seanchan do seem to be almost as bad as the Trollocs in their ability to get a couple hundred thousand soldiers slain and not have their numbers really diminish any, but at least the Trollocs can pull replacements out of the portal stones.

 

I got thi from the wiki so I'm not sure how accurate this is, but I would assume that each village wouldnt have more than a few hundred people, so I don't understand how the two rivers could field aa forcemof three thousand bowman. that is weird.

http://wot.wikia.com/wiki/Battle_of_Malden

[Majsju]

Regarding the number of ships, it is quite possible, I'd even say likely that many of them did several trips. Looking at Mats POV when the Return comes to Ebou dar, there are nowhere near the number of troops we see later on. There are roughly four months between the attack on Ebou dar and Mats campaign against the Seanchan, if it takes a month to go one way every ship can take one extra trip. Add to that the Sea Folk vessels they captured, even though the escaped Windfinders managed to destroy several of them.

Also, Suroth gathered all the survivors from Falme at Cantorin, one of the Sea Folk islands. Having a foothold there might have given them the opportunity to capture a number of Sea Folk vessels and send them to Seanchan to be included in the fleet.

 

Sure, it is still a huge number of ships, but not as many as it first might seem.

[Luckers]

i am sorry but may be I did not make myself clear. You see according to a link somewhere I read that AIEL field about 400,000 spears on this side of Dragon wall. suttree posted the link above somewhere. Whereas Seanchan can field about 300,000 troops. Also, damanes cannot link while WOs can. with a numerical advantage of 4:3 and a tactical advantage of having bazookas against pop guns as someone rightly pointed out above how can they lose?

 

With travelling the Seanchan could re-consolidate their own main land, which is larger than the westlands and far more densely populated. As result, they could field a much larger army than what was brought with the Corenne. Likely somewhere in the excess of millions.

[kght22]

Ya, the Seanchan do seem to be almost as bad as the Trollocs in their ability to get a couple hundred thousand soldiers slain and not have their numbers really diminish any, but at least the Trollocs can pull replacements out of the portal stones.

 

I got thi from the wiki so I'm not sure how accurate this is, but I would assume that each village wouldnt have more than a few hundred people, so I don't understand how the two rivers could field aa forcemof three thousand bowman. that is weird.

http://wot.wikia.com...attle_of_Malden

the two rivers to start with likely had about 50 thousand people. of course the towns were small, most of the people would be farmers living on their farms. but when you add the influx of refugies from arad doman and beyond you can quickly add another hundred thousand, and make sense of emonds field starting to become a city. and yes a force of 3 thousand bowmen out of a culture of farmers and hunters that number 50 thousand or even if you reduce it to 20 thousand wouldn't be unheard of even in real history (where do you think england's first longbowmen came from, and that force was more than a thousand) keep in mind the first chapters of the whole series, being a good shot with a longbow was important to every boy in the two rivers. so them fielding 3000 longbows isnt a big suprise. after the refugies they even add other hunters who use different bows.