Princess Bride Mafia - Game Over!

[Sakaea]

Why me? Can someone please actually case me instead of just saying they think I'm scummy? Makes it kinda hard to answer accusations, ya know.

[CTM]

Why me? Can someone please actually case me instead of just saying they think I'm scummy? Makes it kinda hard to answer accusations, ya know.

 

 

well the single biggest reason is that I don't think anyone with a townie character claim is going to flip scum. That leaves like 7 question marks, 3-4 of which are probably scum... I can try and case you more thoroughly if alive tomorrow, but the fact above is the root of it, and why I've been advocating a mass character claim. I really wish Rhea didn't bungle her reveal, as that's the 1 serious misstep that i think town has taken

[Sakaea]

Ok. I'll answer tomorrow, if I'm alive

 

Yeah, Rhea's miss-step was detrimental, to say the least.

[John McClane]

Why me? Can someone please actually case me instead of just saying they think I'm scummy? Makes it kinda hard to answer accusations, ya know.

 

You haven't left enough of a trail to case... Which means you are playing super clean.... Which makes you suspect IMO.

[Sakaea]

Can't please you, can I? LOL

[Ithillian Turambar]

I don't see the point in waiting till morning. If you are dead in the morning then you can't give your thoughts ... Unless you are pretty sure you are still going to be around also OMG - of course anyone on the not revealed or even not dead list is going to look like Mafia at the moment Kae - your indignation at being named is almost funny, as was the almost placid and calm response you got.

 

So I will have a look through the list of everyone left alive in the game and give my thoughts in a little bit - once I have got the boys breakfasted. Shouldn't be too long.

 

Back after weetabix for two

[hazelkrs1]

Why me?

 

Fry her!

 

Why me? Can someone please actually case me instead of just saying they think I'm scummy? Makes it kinda hard to answer accusations, ya know.

 

You haven't left enough of a trail to case... Which means you are playing super clean.... Which makes you suspect IMO.

 

Pretty much this. I feel like you've been too careful this game Kae and have input little into the scumhunt argument. Plus, the same argument holds for you that I said about Tina: because of this post \/

 

Ok, I'm back from the weekend. Thoughts:

 

AH: claimed townie Mason. I believe her.

Smiley: not sure about him. He's a n00b, so I tend to cut him some slack. That comment to Sol about getting lynched was out there, tho.

Turin: Booing Hag with a PR, apparently. Leaning towards him being mafia or a third party. I think third party would be more likely.

Des: also claimed townie Mason. Also believe him.

Ithi 2.0 (Paet's replacement): I was suspicious of Paet cus of his inactivity. No read on Ithi 2.0 yet.

CTM: claimed King with no real pressure. Kinda came out of left field with that one. It seemed like he was hinting that he's roled too, but maybe I'm wrong on that. FOS at him for the weird reveal.

Locke: very unsure on him. I've gone back-and-forth between getting town and scum reads from him.

Talya: claimed Townsfolk of Florin. I think I believe her.

Ape 2.0 (replaced Nyn): also claimed Townsfolk of Florin. I believe her too.

Wombat: I think he's been playing pretty scummy all game, actually. He pops in, says something quick, votes, and disappears. It's like he's trying to stay under the radar, but still vote and appear active.

Solimind: claimed Miracle Max, town doctor. No CC, so I believe him for now.

Tina: not sure about Tina. I haven't gotten a feel for her at all this game.

 

Ok, so I would definitely like to hear from Wombat. Don't wanna put him at L-1 before he has a chance to say whatever he's gonna say.

 

We would gain a fair amount of info from your lynch should you flip scum

 

Honestly though I wouldn't really say you're my top lynch candidate, I'm a little more wary of Locke and Talya and Ape 2.0 atm

[Leelou]

For some reason I thought yesterday was Tuesday. I have most Night Actions in. If those that did not turn them in could do so by 8 tonight, that would be great.

[Ithillian Turambar]

So - here are my thoughts on who is who.

 

1. A. Heart - Probably Town - the Fezzik claim seems kosher and he was a good guy in the end.

2. Smiley - Possibly Mafia - just because of the numbers and people who have already claimed and stuff really

5. Turin - Probably Town - the Ancient Boo-er isn't a strong enough character to be Mafia, plus she is actually the one who shows Buttercup that she is making a terrible mistake in giving Westley up, and this brings Buttercup to her senses. So - not a bad character at all really.

6. Despo - Probably Town - Ingigo claim seems valid.

9. Paet/Ithi - Probably Town - actually Definitely Town now I come to think of it.

11. CTM - Possibly Town - but too curious about the Cop and wants him to out the 'confirmed innocents' that's a mafia type thing to do. And also something someone might do if they knew they would view as innocent. GF I think.

12. Locke - very suspicious and one of the unconfirmed but Possibly Town. Only lynching him will tell for sure.

14. Talya - 1st to correctly get the Townfolk of Florin role correct, but still Possibly Mafia as could have been given fake role reveals by the Mod.

15. Nyn/Ape - Possibly Mafia? Unsure - Nyn came out fighting hard, but then asked to be replaced, carried on for a bit and then was replaced. If she was on a reasonably successful mafia team I think she would have kept plugging away.

16. Sakaea - Probably Mafia - seems confident she will survive till morning and wondered why she was on the suspect list when there are not many of us unclaimed players left.

19. Solimind Probably Town and Doc - no-one has counterclaimed.

20. Tina - Possibly Town - I hope she is Town.

 

Also Mr Cop, I would ignore the 'good' advice from CTM. I'm sure the Mafia team would love to know who you are, but in a game where there are likely 5 original mafia members, and I think it was CTM who came up with that number, and also in a game that seems to follow mostly traditional lines, there is likely to be a sneaky godfather out there some somewhere, this will mean that possibly one of the Cop's views is wrong and someone who is showing as town is not really. That does mean that all the other views will be correct, and any views as Mafia will almost definitely be correct.

 

Just something to think about.

 

And that's it from me till hopefully morning. Anyone who is Town and hasn't given their thought during the night also goes on my Naughty List. We can't hang about when they will be lynching.

[Niniel]

CTM is telling the cop what to do again.

 

Sakaea and Smiley has moved up on my list for scum.

[Smiley73]

CTM is telling the cop what to do again.

 

Sakaea and Smiley has moved up on my list for scum.

 

Have I befuddled you as well?

[John McClane]

I can't tell if CTM is cop directing with scum agenda, OR trying to over-compensate formthenpossibilitynthatncop might be a noob

[John McClane]

Freakin iPad

[Niniel]

CTM is telling the cop what to do again.

 

Sakaea and Smiley has moved up on my list for scum.

 

Have I befuddled you as well?

 

Befuddled? Can you please speak Swedish?

 

You just don´t make sense.

[Aiel Heart]

@Ithi mainly because I have a few papers to write and they're not going to get done if I use my homework time today to do another reread :P might anyway though--depends on how much I feel like procrastinating

 

@Tina--befuddled=confused

 

and.... yeah

[John McClane]

CTM is telling the cop what to do again.

 

Sakaea and Smiley has moved up on my list for scum.

 

Have I befuddled you as well?

 

Befuddled? Can you please speak Swedish?

 

You just don´t make sense.

 

I think he warming up for a reveal personally... He's taking the town's temperature right now.

[John McClane]

@Ithi mainly because I have a few papers to write and they're not going to get done if I use my homework time today to do another reread :P might anyway though--depends on how much I feel like procrastinating

 

@Tina--befuddled=confused

 

and.... yeah

 

You don't need to post another re-read, just give us you top 3-4. Also, we already know you don't think we should trust Solimind. ;)

[Smiley73]

Freakin iPad

 

Is that where the "n"'s came from?

 

CTM is telling the cop what to do again.

 

Sakaea and Smiley has moved up on my list for scum.

 

Have I befuddled you as well?

 

Befuddled? Can you please speak Swedish?

 

You just don´t make sense.

 

look at the avatar, does that look like the face of clear reasoning?

[Aiel Heart]

I'll do a non-WoT skimming sort of reread. This week has been so hectic and I don't want to mix up games or remember something else incorrectly :P

 

I kinda gave my opinions of each person with my last list

[John McClane]

 

5. Turin - Probably Town - the Ancient Boo-er isn't a strong enough character to be Mafia, plus she is actually the one who shows Buttercup that she is making a terrible mistake in giving Westley up, and this brings Buttercup to her senses. So - not a bad character at all really.

 

11. CTM - Possibly Town - but too curious about the Cop and wants him to out the 'confirmed innocents' that's a mafia type thing to do. And also something someone might do if they knew they would view as innocent. GF I think.

 

12. Locke - very suspicious and one of the unconfirmed but Possibly Town. Only lynching him will tell for sure.

 

14. Talya - 1st to correctly get the Townfolk of Florin role correct, but still Possibly Mafia as could have been given fake role reveals by the Mod.

 

15. Nyn/Ape - Possibly Mafia? Unsure - Nyn came out fighting hard, but then asked to be replaced, carried on for a bit and then was replaced. If she was on a reasonably successful mafia team I think she would have kept plugging away.

 

16. Sakaea - Probably Mafia - seems confident she will survive till morning and wondered why she was on the suspect list when there are not many of us unclaimed players left.

 

20. Tina - Possibly Town - I hope she is Town.

 

 

The assumptions you are making about Turin's character are presumptuous and dangerous, IMO.

 

The fact that you would go so far as to insinuate CTM is godfather, but then you admonish the idea that Turin's character could have been included as a scum role is relatively absurd.

 

Actually, you had no problem casting suspicion and trying to spin just about everyone as scummy in your post.... Except Tina, Turin and to a lesser extent Sakea. You pretty much echo and push what townies are already saying about other question marks like Locke, Talya.... And spin whatever you can to create doubt about CTM and I. Amazing that In all of that suspicion and conjecture you are faithful in the idea that there's just "no way" the Boo Hag could be scum. Laughable.

[CTM]

I think first and foremost, we have to be pragmatic.. There's 7 unknowns, meaning people who haven't claimed or people who claimed a generic character (townsperson of florin)... if Mafia has decided I'm not the cop, then they will shoot into this pool of people. If there are 4 mafia in that pool (and it depends on the boo hag, probably), then they have a 1/3 chance of killing the cop tonight (7 unknowns - 4 scum = 3 townies, 1 of whom would be cop). If there's 3 scum in that group, then they have a 1/4 chance (7-3= 4, 1/4). These are decent odds of killing the cop tonight, which will only get better tomorrow night.

 

Like it or not, the cop is going to be outed soon. Whether that is tonight, tomorrow or the following night, I don't know, but it's coming. It is in far better interest of the town to have the cops results to work with, specifically in the instance where they did the sensible thing and investigated into this group of people. If the cop has no innocents, then obviously it doesn't matter if they wind up dead, what I'm saying is that if the cop is sitting on information that could help us, it would be a shame for them to be die with that information.

[Ithillian Turambar]

I'm pretty sure I said that Kae was Probably Mafia.

 

Silly Ape.

[John McClane]

I'm pretty sure I said that Kae was Probably Mafia.

 

Silly Ape.

 

Sure you said "probably mafia" about her, but what you followed it with was baseless, and resonated more like you know she's town.

 

Frankly, you said "probably town" about CTM, and proceeded to call him the GF after that.

 

There's quite a bit of mixed messaging going on in your long list of doodie.

[John McClane]

I think first and foremost, we have to be pragmatic.. There's 7 unknowns, meaning people who haven't claimed or people who claimed a generic character (townsperson of florin)... if Mafia has decided I'm not the cop, then they will shoot into this pool of people. If there are 4 mafia in that pool (and it depends on the boo hag, probably), then they have a 1/3 chance of killing the cop tonight (7 unknowns - 4 scum = 3 townies, 1 of whom would be cop). If there's 3 scum in that group, then they have a 1/4 chance (7-3= 4, 1/4). These are decent odds of killing the cop tonight, which will only get better tomorrow night.

 

Like it or not, the cop is going to be outed soon. Whether that is tonight, tomorrow or the following night, I don't know, but it's coming. It is in far better interest of the town to have the cops results to work with, specifically in the instance where they did the sensible thing and investigated into this group of people. If the cop has no innocents, then obviously it doesn't matter if they wind up dead, what I'm saying is that if the cop is sitting on information that could help us, it would be a shame for them to be die with that information.

 

 

If the Cop reveals now, we get a couple of innocents and the cop dies instantly - assuming one of the night actions we're waiting on is the NK from scum, as you beg the Cop to reveal during night phase.

 

That is a 100% chance of the Cop dying now.

 

Versus your 25-33% chance of the Cop dying by staying quiet.

 

There are other variables you aren't accounting for in your odds also... like the cop not being in that pool of people. Which reduces the odds further.

[Ithillian Turambar]

I shall tell you clear then, Mr Ape. That those I said Probably Mafia about - are probably Mafia IMO. Just so you know.

 

I would not say something so possibly damning about a player unless I really believed it.

 

I stand by my list. maybe I will change it all tomorrow though.