one word....Asmodean..... ;-)

[Graendals favourite]

I'm getting exited about it, so I can't help mentioning, that in WH, the episode with the gholam attacking Mat, then Noal rescuing him, the gholam covering up why the recue worked, and then Noal who sometimes acts as though compelled earning Mat's trust, just might have been orchestrated by Graendal.

 

I think Graendal has a Finder on Mat. Could be Melindhra helped with that, Mat hasn't kept all of his possession at hand all the time, and there are a few things he has had for a while. The hat, the spear perhap something else.

 

And the KoD coincidence: spoiler

Didn't the gholam reemerge to pursuit the Mat-group after Moridin commanded to find and kill Mat and Perrin.

[Bob T Dwarf]

You're still placing Graendal in Caemlyn without any real rationale for her being there. Even after Jordan has told us in the next book that he had her doing other things.

 

You're still insisting that Asmo's murder could only be accomplished by a channeler. There is no reason to believe that.

 

First you invent a reason for her to be in Caemlyn. Then you invent a way for her to spy on Asmo. Then you invent a way for her to discern where he's going and get there first. Then you invent a way for her to kill him and dispose of the body without anyone knowing.

 

Still tooooooooo inventive. And, none of it is supported by the books. Heck, Marak can find as much support in the books for Chuck Norris as the killer as you can for Graendal.

[Ilyena]

I skipped ahead straight to this page since this post is so long, but what if one of the Gholam were actually the ones to kill Asmodean? I mean, isn't it possible, since he would have known what it was (being Shadowspawn), it was protected from his small amount of the one power, with no need to fear Rand, and it is mentioned in Chapter 3 in the next book, sudgesting it's use could have been in the previous book. Just an idea.

[Graendals favourite]

Ilyena, we didn't know of gholams at that point, and we're supposed to be able to figure out the death at the end of FoH. Gholams do have some complications, though it would be better than simply non-channeller.

 

 

Bob, yea, I'm even saying we don't need to know what her reason for being there was. You can't deny she was capable of being there. Or that she was among the people who most wanted to know what was happening with Rand.

 

I insist channeller, as I pointed out in a post above. A non-channeller would've likely died himself if he tried to kill Asmo, but rather he would have tried to flee from a Forsaken. Anyway, he couldn't have killed Asmo so quickly in that confugration. Approach a door, pull it open and take one step through while looking in, and you see why.

 

You can too invent ways of Graendal learning many things, but I do it to show I don't need to stretch to come with plausible explanations. At the time of explanations, only three suspects remain however, all but Gra-Mes-Sem are out, so others needn't be considered.

[Guest cwestervelt]

Bob' date=' you misinterprit. I do not mean following Asmo from Cairhien to Caemlyn, I mean following Asmodean from the garden to that door.

 

Asmodean spent a good time in a place (the garden) that could be seen from many places, not hiding in any way (in fact playing music), around interesting people (Mat and Aviendha, Rand near). So it is plausible that anyone in Caemlyn going to get a closer look will indeed spot Asmodean. Thus, it makes sense she knew Asmodean was in Caemlyn.

 

Speculation: [i'] Whether Graendal knew beforehand that Asmo would be in Caemlyn, depends on whether she paid a visit to Cairhien earlier. However, she could well suspect he might be there, if she had info Rand was going there, as well she might through darkfriends in Caemlyn, or straight through Moghedien. [/i] This speculation however, is irrelevant, because that is what it is, and whatever her reasons to be in Caemlyn, and there was many that are possible, they are irrelevant to the case once she sees Asmodean.

 

Graendal is one of the most likely people to check out on Caemlyn, a Forsaken who has been involved in plans concerning Rand recently. Asmodean is a direct threat to Graendal, he is a Forsaken who is helping and teaching the enemy. Graendal is at war, and wants to become Nae'blis too, after the Dark One has prevailed.

 

 

cwestervelt, to the first I say it just seems Forsaken can defend themselves when directly attacked, and opening a gateway on someone is a direct attack. The ambush gives an advantage over just shooting from a rooftop.

 

True Power, we knew nothing of it even though Ishamael had used it. And he wasn't available, otherwise he'd be a suspect.

 

Takes a lot of Power. The point is, what is the point? There's two things here. I'll address them here both.

 

First from Graendal's point of view. She has just left Aviendha behind. This ambush is a quick thing to do. She doesn't need to fear Aviendha, she is from her perspective untrained, and far enough not to be able to cause trouble while Graendal removes herself from the murder scene.

 

Second, from Aviendha's point of view. She IS not much trained. Two or three months is it training with the Wise Ones. We don't know she would feel it, we don't know she didn't feel something. Even if she'd felt something, nothing would have screamed Graendal. So, there's nothing from Aviendha that says this thing didn't happen.

 

 

I'm going on much about what the issue is, because in speaking of this case it is necessary. Necessary, because this case has a fundamental difference to the previous theories (I don't know each and every one). Generally they've looked at what was before the killing, then see how one candidate could prevail against the others in getting behind that door.

 

That is not what I'm doing, though I need to see preferably many plausible ways for Graendal to end up behind that door. In looking at the murder scene, I've noticed it only makes sense if the murder knew Asmodean was coming alone, and also that he was coming. So, as it happens, only the available female Forsaken were capable of this. (Regardless of Rand and Aviendha, Asmodean would have felt a man channelling.) So I establish there's only three who could have done it, then looking at them, and noticing it is plausible for them that the thing happen, the other two are pushed out on more general grounds.

 

So I go backwards in time, not forwards, there lies the strength of the argument that Graendal likely had activity already in Cairhien, since her killing Asmodean has already been established. Hope this clears things up.

 

There aren't any acceptable terms that can be used to describe what you just said.

 

Only in your mind has it been established that Graendal killed Asmodean. What you are actually doing here is claiming she was in Caemlyn on personal business, saw Asmodean, and decided to kill the traitor. Then you are using "her killing Asmodean has already been established" to give a reason why she is in Caemlyn on business. That is circular reasoning where both are dependent on the other.

 

Side point. The Foresaken complain a lot about how the communications of the current age are so slow. No one in Cairhien knew Rand was going to Caemlyn until the evening before he went. Even a pigeon couldn't get from Cairhien to Arad Doman in one night to let Graendal know.

 

Concerning Aviendha and her training. If I am remember correctly, the Wise Ones feel that the Aes Sedai shelter there students to much. They also there students to know something after they are told or shown it one time, Aviendha's training was probably much further along than any Novice in the Tower. Most likely she was at least as far a long as an Accepted. She may not recognize a channeller right away, but I would say she should definitely know by then when someone is channelling nereby even if she can't see the person.

[Guest cwestervelt]

I skipped ahead straight to this page since this post is so long' date=' but what if one of the Gholam were actually the ones to kill Asmodean? I mean, isn't it possible, since he would have known what it was (being Shadowspawn), it was protected from his small amount of the one power, with no need to fear Rand, and it is mentioned in Chapter 3 in the next book, sudgesting it's use could have been in the previous book. Just an idea.[/quote']

 

All gholam attacks have been very messy killings. There wouldn't have been any reason for Rand to think Asmodean deserted. They would have known he was dead.

 

My reason for a channeller having done the killing is the total lack of a body and crime scene evidence. To me, this is more indicative of the method of the murder, than of a desire to cover up the murder. It isn't like Rand not knowing Asmodean is dead has been affecting what he does. He only spares the occasional thought to it.

[Jedimuppet]

I skipped ahead straight to this page since this post is so long' date=' but what if one of the Gholam were actually the ones to kill Asmodean? I mean, isn't it possible, since he would have known what it was (being Shadowspawn), it was protected from his small amount of the one power, with no need to fear Rand, and it is mentioned in Chapter 3 in the next book, sudgesting it's use could have been in the previous book. Just an idea.[/quote']

 

All gholam attacks have been very messy killings. There wouldn't have been any reason for Rand to think Asmodean deserted. They would have known he was dead.

 

My reason for a channeller having done the killing is the total lack of a body and crime scene evidence. To me, this is more indicative of the method of the murder, than of a desire to cover up the murder. It isn't like Rand not knowing Asmodean is dead has been affecting what he does. He only spares the occasional thought to it.

 

I'm willing to back off all of my hunches except for one: I thoroughly believe it was balefire. That's why there was no body, and why we got the signature description. Also, how it was so fast and mess free.

So essentially, I agree with CW.

 

J

[Graendals favourite]

Only in your mind has it been established that Graendal killed Asmodean. What you are actually doing here is claiming she was in Caemlyn on personal business, saw Asmodean, and decided to kill the traitor. Then you are using "her killing Asmodean has already been established" to give a reason why she is in Caemlyn on business. That is circular reasoning where both are dependent on the other.

 

Yea, there I agree to a certain point, and since I first thought of this scheme in autumn I've thought a lot about whether I really am using circular logic. Later I resolved that it actually isn't circular, because of two things.

 

The first part, you're right, that's what I'm saying. However, I'm not saying it as a proof, I'm saying it as an explanation, and saying the explanation is plausible and a lot more credible for Graendal than Semirhage or Mesaana. So she has a easy way of being there that makes sense. Cause an accidental encounter and kill doesn't.

 

What breaks the symmetry, the two things, is I anchor the case in the facts that because the thing can be figured out, things need to make sense. Because after that there are only the three suspects left, I then use the fact that Asmodean died, which means one of them was there.

 

I admit I have then used background info to pick out the winner from the trio, but still think, that as far as the case relevantly goes, (Mes and Sem being ridiculous), I have only used general knowledge of people's abilities and info in that last chapter. So I'm free to use the deductions to go further back in time.

 

It's a good point you raised, I'm happy someone did, since I've given it a lot of thought, but I don't think it applies here. The case is a lot more difficult to present because of this: First one has to discard other possibilities (I), then see if the remaining one is possible (II), and then look whether it makes sense for the remaining suspects (III). It's very hard to make clear when writing, which one of the three one means at which point.

 

The side point. This is in section (III) :idea: (I'll use section numbers). It's plausible for Graendal to learn before or after Rand attacked that Rand was went there, Moghedien did that too. I don't think anything more needs to be said in this section.

 

Aviendha, section (II). I'm not sure on that. There's cases of Elayne or Nynaeve being shielded without noticing it first. Elayne and Nynaeve not knowing another channeller channelled in Tanchico, and Moggy knowing. Three months is a short time, normal novice time is 5 years isn't it. More to the point, we don't know Aviendha didn't feel something, whether she noticed or not, or knew it was someone channelling, knew for a fact. The murder wasn't exactly near, far enough at least for the shout not to carry. So I think female ambush was fully possible regardless of Aviendha.

[alCal]

I'm willing to back off all of my hunches except for one: I thoroughly believe it was balefire. That's why there was no body' date=' and why we got the signature description. Also, how it was so fast and mess free.

So essentially, I agree with CW.

 

J[/quote']

 

Can't have been balefire. I am sure it says something about him "beeing dead before hitting the ground". Balefire leaves nothing to fall to the ground.

 

 

And on the subject of female channelers: if the killer was a Forsaken, as I believe, she could have used the True Power to go undetected.

But I don't think Aviendha would have noticed even if someone was channeling saidar, as long as the killer didn't use a lot of the Power. (which shouldn't be necessary for just killing Asmo)

[Bob T Dwarf]

Yes, it could have been balefire. The line is:

The word still hung in the air when death took him.

 

It could not have been True Power, because TP isn't introduced until after the murder.

[Bob T Dwarf]

G's fave -

 

Your reasoning is still circular. How many times have we seen one Forsaken know things that the others do not. Moggy knowing that Rand was going to Caemlyn in no way implies that Graendal did as well. Especially since we know that Graendal and Moggy never met as they'd arranged to.

 

Melindhra certainly never had time to pass any info along, since she attacked Mat and died, immediately upon learning of Rand's change in plan.

 

It simply takes too many convenient coincidences to place any of the Forsaken in Caemlyn at the time of the murder.

[Paradoxic]

A couple of things:

 

I proposed that Graendal's being in Caemlyn had nothing to do with killing Asmodean. She was in Caemlyn for snooping/treasure hunting/looking in on Rhavin/was there since before the attack meeting with Rhavin, decided not to help him in the battle, and was waiting around for things to cool before leaving/etc and ran into Asmodean. There is no reason she wouldn't have been unmasked since who would recognize her? Even if she was masked, she may have been using a mask that she often used OR one that was only a bit off her real appearance (something Moghedian does as well because it is easier to maintain those kinds of masks).

 

Bob, I've said this before... but if we were to stick to the facts then this entire debate is moot. Every suspect requires some amount of assumption... to limit our options to those that must have been in Caemlyn, must have had a reason to kill Asmodean, must have been recognized by Asmodean, must have been known to Asmodean as a certain sign of his death, must have had a way to kill him before he could protect himself with the power, must have cleaned everything up perfectly afterwards, must have been intuitively obvious at the time of the death, AND must have had supporting evidence through out the rest of the books up to tPoD removes EVERY suspect. If we do not assume then we should stop the debate. The issue is one of the number and probability of necessary assumptions.

[Graendals favourite]

Bob, no, the circularity is broken, at that time there is only one suspect, so it's ok to go back and see whether she works. And she does.

 

The case is somehow like this. We don't know how to multiply, but we know some basic features of multiplication.

 

We have a product of 143, and we want to know by multiplying which two numbers of 10, 11, 12, 13 it can be achieved.

 

We know an odd number can be achieved in multiplication only, if both of the base-numbers are odd. So 11*13= 143, because we know two of the numbers produce that result.

 

If the numbers are 10, 11, 12, 13, 151, 3001, we are left with four numbers, but since 151 and 3001 are larger than 143, we can deduce they cannot be part of the solution. Again we know 11*13=143 and we are allowed to check whether it truly is so with a calculator, and it is not circulation.

 

There's circulation if the numbers were 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, when three numbers would remain, and we'd need that forbidden calculation to determine between the three permutations. Not just to confirm, but to determine.

 

Graendal is determined, then it is checked whether it goes right. This is the best I can do to clear the circulation thing.

[Bob T Dwarf]

Except that Graendal is not determined. She's merely guessed at, and then "facts" are made up to support the conclusion.

 

You've decided, quite independently of any facts, that the killer must be a Forsaken. That this Forsaken must be female. And, that balefire must have been used. Further, that it could only be Graendal, because only Graendal could have information that there is no evidence any Forsaken but Moghedien possessed.

 

Heck, I'll even go for Marak's pirates before I go for Graendal. ( Although I do think Chuck Norris would be the one who just snapped his neck and left no mess. )

[rogue5]

Because it is alot more important than he has let on. I just reread the Chapter Asmo died in, and the chapter before and after, the thing that stands out is that he is happy that he is free from the DO and the Chosen (atleast he thinks he is free!!). He especially voices his feelings for Lanfear, to the point of glee and relief at her death. I know this has been said over and over and shot down as many times because most can't see the how or the why for her but that is the only thing that rings true for me after reading it. Going in I really didn't have a good theory as to who or how ( see my prievious post a few days ago) except that it was a Channeler. Just the fact that the reaction, he is so surprised just after he was thinking about Lanfear. It is like when you talk about your boss and they show up 2 seconds later, on is his case mentioning the DO and something bad happening. I don't think RJ ever said that we would know the how or why just the who. Thus he won't say because it is going to be part of the last book, his death is the key to something else, if not why kill him?? Supposedly noone has the motive to kill him :D. The only other thing that stands out is how he got to the place of his death, it seems almost as if he was compeled to that door without even reallizing where he was. It is one thing to be distracted in your own thoughts but he seemed beyond that and the fact that he shivered just before he opened the door, that isn't much but I think it was a female Channeling or embracing the source near him. Just my 2 sheckles ... Flame away!!!

[Graendals favourite]

Bob, you're not reading or remembering my posts. I already answered you that two times today, so I shan't a third time, but believe me, I have my reasons to say it was a female forsaken.

 

I suppose there's something of stepping over a cliff blindfolded, after deducing there must be a bridge there. I will do it, but then I've had long thought on it.

[Bob T Dwarf]

There is only one suspect for you. That's because you refuse to consider the possibility that anyone but a Forsaken could have killed him.

[alCal]

But who except for a Forsaken could have done it? No one (as we know of, except for Moiraine?) knew who he was, and I can't think of another person that he would recognize and be afraid of.

And all of the Forsaken have a very good motive: they don't want Rand to become more powerful with the Power.

[Paradoxic]

But alCal, it could be like Bob has said:

 

We assume (er, KNOW) that Bashere brought some Saldaen guards with him when he went to see Rand. Then we assume (I mean, use deduction to determine) that Asmodean would know and be known to one of these guards. Then we assume (uh, pull out of a hat?) that this guard knew which random door Asmodean would wander into. Then we have to assume (that is to say: receive a divine message reguarding) that this guard is able to kill Asmodean quietly and quickly and dispose of the guard. Oh, and we have to assume (or have it on first hand account because we were there) that these guards would have had free reign of the castle while Bashere met with Rand.

 

I don't do this to insult Bob, but to indicate that even his suggestion fails to meet the 'no crazy assumptions' requirement that he has put forth himself.

 

Now, becareful Bob. You blame Graendal's Favorite of being close minded and set upon what you perceive as a dead wrong impossibility. However, that's just because you disagree with that choice. It appears that you are equating "refuse to consider" with "failure to agree".

 

I, for one, as many others here have considered the other choices. I've considered Bashere. I've considered Moiraine. I've considered Lanfear. I've even considered Aviendha for the time it took to spell out the reasons against her. I've considered Ishammael, Be'lal, Demandred, Taim, Slayer, Mat, Fain, Sammael, Lan, the Gholam, Shaidar Haran, random Dark Ajah Sister, LTT after hijacking Rand's body and then inducing amnesia, servents, drakar, trollocs, Ma'Shadar, and more than likely anyone else you wish to bring up. And if you find someone I haven't, I will consider it.

 

I have never changed my mind about Graendal. I felt it was her before I ever found www.dragonmount.com and its crazy never dieing debate. Just because I consider and dismiss all other options does not mean I'm wrong. And if I do turn out to be wrong, that is fine; I will gladly admit it.

[Guest cwestervelt]

Having felt that before finding dragonmount.com doesn't mean your right either.

 

Everyone has there predetermined suspect. Everyone knows the problems with their own choice. Everyone knows the problems with the other options. The reason why people hold so tightly to there options are that, when they compair the short comings in their own ideas against the short comings of the other options, the other options always have more. If that wasn't the case, they wouldn't have come to their original decision.

 

I came to my conclusion of Moiraine immediately during my first reading of The Fires of Heaven and before I ever knew there were discussion groups. To me, it was obvious and it still is. The only time it isn't obvious is if you start to try and over analyze everything. Nothing that I have read in the books or on line since then has ever had enough factual evidence to change my mind.

 

Yes, I need to "invent" a way for Moiraine to get there. I can't prove it, I can't give a "logical" explanation. So what. No has been able do that for any of their candidates. Start adding the "what if's, and suppose that's" for each theory. I've seen less for Moiraine or Lanfear than anyone else. No offence meant to Bob as I'm just using his as an example, but a Saldaean has several on its own. You need to assume Asmodean had been in Saldaea and met this Darkfriend even though Kadere was exiled and hadn't been in the Borderlands for years. You need to assume this Darkfriend would know who Asmodean was and that he was a traitor when just the previous day Kadere had no clue and thought Asmodean was working under orders. You have to assume they are among Bashere's escort to Caemlyn even though we are given nothing beyond the number of men who came with him. You have to assume that the escort was allowed into the palace when there was minimal guards even though there is no mention beyond them coming to Caemlyn. That is just a start of the assumptions you posted. A similar long list of assumptions needs to get made for Graendal to put her in Caemlyn.

 

I will give the 4 "what if's/suppose that's" Moiraine requires. If you can convince me that someone else requires less, than I will say you have a creditable suspect. That doesn't meen I will agree with your analysis, just that the suspect is creditable.

 

1) What if the Finn's can place someone anywhere they choose

2) What if the Finn's can pull said someone back if their business isn't finished

3) What if Moiraine is that said someone and she wanted to remove a threat to the Dragon Reborn

4) What if the Finn's interpreted that threat as being Asmodean

 

Given all of that, why should I think Moiraine is not the most likely suspect. I'm sure that anyone who wants to can come up with a hell of a long list of what they consider to be assumptions concerning Moiraine. In the same way, the list of what they consider to be assumptions in there own pet theory is going to be equally short. No one (myself included) is being 100 percent objective in this discussion and no one is going to be.

 

There is no point in getting angry with people because they don't see it your way. I'm guilty of that as much as anyone, but it isn't being very rational. I don't expect people to agree, so why should I let it bother me.

[Paradoxic]

Just so we're clear, I never really get angry about things on these boards... Unnerved over how people can forget what they said a few pages ago, maybe, but never angry.

 

I did not list "having felt this way before ever finding dragonmount" as a reason I am right. It was simply a statement of fact to indicate that I've had my choice for awhile and came to the conclusion without ever becoming involved in a debate over the issue much as you, CW, say you did regarding Moiraine.

 

As to the "what if's". This measurement is useless for reasons you say yourself - "I'm sure that anyone who wants to can come up with a hell of a long list of what they consider to be assumptions concerning Moiraine." I can list 3 what if's for Graendal, but my list may not be the same as your list:

 

1) Assume Graendal was in Caemlyn.

2) Assume Asmodean and her met in this closet.

3) Assume Asmodean recognized her.

 

That's all that is necessary for Graendal to be a suspect. The particulars of why and how are, basically, pointless. We know that, given those assumptions, Graendal would kill Asmodean just as Moiraine would given CW's assumptions. We know that Asmodean has the capacity to recognize her and that she has the capacity to kill him in a way that left no mess (or, at the least, be able to clean it up afterwards without difficulty).

 

We argue over them in a constant battle to disprove each other's choices as a way to further our own choice in the debate. However, given the alternative of simply posting our arguments for our choice for others to read and then walking away never to touch them again (apart from necessary clarifications so that our idea gets across in the clearest manner)... this is more fun, heh.

[Guest Egwene]

:oops: ... I have to admit to coming to this discussion (starting on the temp.board) with no firm suspect in mind. When I read the scene, I didn't really consider who did it. Lanfear probably.. because Asmo thinks of her just prior to his death. I was expecting to find the answer in the next book in any case. Hadn't liked the guy so just thought 'good riddance'.

 

Than I found WoT boards and the fact that everyone was tearing their hair out over this. So I re-read and thought yes, Lanfear. It was only over the course of this thread that I started considering all the others. And I changed my mind.

 

I am now with CW and think it is Moiraine. Because of the very short list of requirements she would need to fulfill, because she would make for the most interesting storyline, because I like her (not rational, but hey..*shrugs her shoulders*).

 

And totally agree with Paradoxic... it's fun :D ... and at the same time, I still feel that somewhere there is one word, one short observation that we are missing. It's like looking for the Golden Ticket to enter the chocolate factory! If we open enough bars.... it's got to be there somewhere

[Bob T Dwarf]

CW -

 

I'll give your argument this much....it's rational.

 

I haven't decided anything. I just followed the self-evident facts in the text of tFoH. Bashere shows up with wine and goblets. Asmo goes looking for wine.

 

It's the clearest link between anybody and Asmo's death that we have.

 

Personally, I don't want it to be Bashere... or even anybody associated with him. I want Bashere to be one of the good guys.

 

Bashere ( or one or more of his escort ) suffers from the lack of a known motive. Everyone else suffers from the lack of a provable opportunity.

 

It's really six of one, half a dozen of the other. All I need to invent is a motive. Everyone else needs to invent ( a strong enough ) motive and opportunity.

[Guest cwestervelt]

You also need to "invent" the opportunity. Bashere has already come back from finding wine. Asmodean is looking and it is unknown if he found any. If this was the first small door he found, he likely didn't as it would probably only have let him into the servants corridors. It's unlikely the palace would have a pantry off of a main corridor cause they wouldn't want important guests seeing the unprepared food coming and going.

[Paradoxic]

Motive? I don't need no stinkin' motive!

 

Heh, seriously though, the 'accidental encounter' senario that I espouse needs no 'motive' beyond the fact that, given the opportunity, Graendal would not fail to kill Asmodean simply on the grounds that he is a traitor and worth DO Brownie points. A motive is necessary in the Assassin Graendal case. Remember that there are two different senarios involving Graendal.