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Graendal Knows


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I asked this question in the "Simple" thread but it seems that it isn't too simple.

I assumed when I asked the question that I'd missed something buried in the earlier part of the book but it appears that it wasn't so, at least in my copy.


ToM Chapter 38.

Perrin has destroyed the Dreamspike and Gated his entire force to Whitebridge.

Graendal knows Perrin has escaped.

She orders Slayer to spring the trap anyway.

She "knows" that Perrin's ta'veren power will protect him from normal assassination attempts.

But if she can catch him in the midst of battle, her last ace in the hole, Jaret Byar, might be able to kill him in the midst of chaos and confusion.

It's clear from her PoV that she is not interested in wiping out the Whitecloaks as such.

As we learn, Perrin figures out the trap and decides to come back. (Ch 40)


How does she know that Perrin will come back to rescue the Whitecloaks?

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It'd be easier to go after Mat. The Gholam failed because of Teslyn but Mat really has no channellers or superior numbers around him. Perrin at least has battle ready AS, AM and WO. Matt has no one, the band is good but can 10,000 really good fighters stop 100,000 Shadowspawn. The Shadow hasn't made a play for Mat, the only thing I can figure is luck his soul. Rand is assailled numerous times, up until recently Perrin was doing a bang up job of trying to kill himself. Min, Elayne, Nyneave, Egwene are hard targets but someone should've made a play for Aviendha. Of course Moridin might not want to harm Rand's women for his own sake. They really should go after mat though.

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I posted the following thoughts on this in the original post-ToM Graendal thread:


I think her plan is a bit wonky on the surface, but I think I see where RJ/BS was going with it.


Due to Perrin's ta'veren nature, any direct attack on him or his close allies would likely fail. Moridin explicitly told her this, and it seems Graendal understands enough about how the Pattern works to agree. Graendal wants Perrin surrounded by a 'tempest' to increase the chance of him working contrary to his own fate.


If the Whitecloaks hadn't delayed Perrin, he'd have faced Graendal's shadowspawn while actively trying to avoid the leadership role the Pattern was pushing him into. An ambush at that point would have likely broken Perrin's forces and possibly Perrin himself. Galad threw a wrench into that.


So with the arrival of the Whitecloaks, Graendal started to incorporate them into her plans. The Pattern had already tied Byar to Perrin, and by 'tweaking' his hate into near insanity, she was, in effect, working within the Pattern to encourage the outcome she wanted. Then Slayer lost the dreamspike and let Perrin escape.


Graendal, getting a bit desperate, understood that Perrin was tied to those Whitecloaks, decided to spring her trap anyway, trusting that the ta'veren effect would bring Perrin back into range of her final tool. She really should have backed off but was understandably a bit upset.


[snip stuff about the dreamspike]


Graendal's plan actually makes more sense than most of the FS plots. She seems to have been trying to use Perrin's own ta'veren effect against him. Her big mistake was in panicking and going in for the kill prematurely. She should have backed off and taken time to reassess the situation.


-- dwn

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