Verin's Gamble

[Winespring Patron]

Apparently Verin didn't know Mat as well as she thought; if she figured his curiosity would compel him to open her letter within several days. It just seems like she was confident of finding the Oath Rod to undue her Black Ajah oaths and performing her White Tower errands (outing the Black Ajah members). However, her language in the actual letter contradicts the confdence she showed when parleying with Mat.

 

Now, apparently, the Trollocs and Fades are already inside Caemlyn and a significant part of the city is burning! It's too bad that Rand didn't ward the known Waygates to instantly zap Shadowspawn exiting them instead of the several hour delay designed to allow for a max kill count before the Fades realized the trap. Talmanes will have to respond with only half(?) the Band, since Elayne took the Cairhien contingent to the Field of Merrilor.

 

I wonder how long, in outside time, Mat spent in the Tower of Ghenjei? His previous experience in the Finnlands made it seem that the objective time was actually longer than his perception (subjective) while inside the portals. It will be interesting to learn from Grady when he makes their return Gateway on how many days Mat and Tom have been gone.

 

I'm thinking that Mat will arrive before Caemlyn is totally destroyed and somehow manage to rally the 10,000 mercs and maybe the civilian population. The timeline is hard to guess but if Olver's POV is from the night before Mat's return at Noon then Talmanes and the Band will have to stabilize the situation for at least 12 hours before Mat's skill and Ta'veren luck can save the day. Perhaps Talmanes may pull off a miraculous upset victory and prove that the Band doesn't need Mat's physical presence to win?

 

One last thing about Noal (Jain Farstrider), he appeared determined to enter the Tower of Ghenjei, was it from a sense of adventure and novelty of the destination? Perhaps he realized his end was near and wanted a chance of redemption because he was duped by the Dark One (carrying the message about the Eye of the World to Stedding Shangtai)? Having considered that, I wonder if he would have chosen join Lan's Last Charge of the Malkieri if he had known about it. Perhaps, he wouldn't because he felt ostracized from the Borderlanders and their code of honor?

[Southpaw89]

we might possibly see Rand show up at Caemlyn and that might the location of his death (first death at least if he is to be resurrected).

[Leyrann]

Mat only has one day for the ToG. The day he leaves, he sees Rand talking with some people in a tent. That can only be when he meets the Borderlanders. The next day is the Field of Merrilor. That means Mat will arrive there at noon.

[Din]

Finnland was the only place Noal hadn't been.

[Dreggs Morlock]

Egwene saw towers falling in a dream in ToM, then one get torn down, only to spring up again, stronger than ever. I thought, after the first re-read, the towers were the nations in Randland, and the tower half destroyed talked of Andor and the Trolloc attacks in the city. This seemed like the best thread to bring that up, since it didn't deserve its own thread, though having said that, it probably has one I didn't see!!

 

As for Verin... she told Matt there were instructions he had to follow in the letter... and it was just a warning!! Not a single thing really required of him, besides doing what she knew he would do! Umm, she obviously didn't think that through at all. How about, "Hey Matt, I'll give you a ride to where ever you need to go, then I need to leave for a bit. If I don't come back within a week, open this, it has important information."

 

DUH.

[Winespring Patron]

 

As for Verin... she told Matt there were instructions he had to follow in the letter... and it was just a warning!! Not a single thing really required of him, besides doing what she knew he would do! Umm, she obviously didn't think that through at all. How about, "Hey Matt, I'll give you a ride to where ever you need to go, then I need to leave for a bit. If I don't come back within a week, open this, it has important information."

 

DUH.

 

A monumental miscalculation that's totally out of character for her!

 

It just seems that she's unnecessarily endangering the capital city of Andor just to maintain the mysterious Aes Sedai demeanor. How could she be so positive that Mat would open the letter if Verin didn't return? She acknowledged during the parley how "difficult" he was, why didn't she allow for the two "possibilities" of (1)her non-return and (2)his stubbornness of not unsealing the letter and waiting 30 days before leaving Caemlyn. Why didn't she tell Egwene during her "deathbed" confession to send a messenger to Elayne immediately warning about the imminent attack thru the Waygate?

[Dreggs Morlock]

 

As for Verin... she told Matt there were instructions he had to follow in the letter... and it was just a warning!! Not a single thing really required of him, besides doing what she knew he would do! Umm, she obviously didn't think that through at all. How about, "Hey Matt, I'll give you a ride to where ever you need to go, then I need to leave for a bit. If I don't come back within a week, open this, it has important information."

 

DUH.

 

A monumental miscalculation that's totally out of character for her!

 

It just seems that she's unnecessarily endangering the capital city of Andor just to maintain the mysterious Aes Sedai demeanor. How could she be so positive that Mat would open the letter if Verin didn't return? She acknowledged during the parley how "difficult" he was, why didn't she allow for the two "possibilities" of (1)her non-return and (2)his stubbornness of not unsealing the letter and waiting 30 days before leaving Caemlyn. Why didn't she tell Egwene during her "deathbed" confession to send a messenger to Elayne immediately warning about the imminent attack thru the Waygate?

Yes.

[Leyrann]

Egwene saw towers falling in a dream in ToM, then one get torn down, only to spring up again, stronger than ever. I thought, after the first re-read, the towers were the nations in Randland, and the tower half destroyed talked of Andor and the Trolloc attacks in the city. This seemed like the best thread to bring that up, since it didn't deserve its own thread, though having said that, it probably has one I didn't see!!

 

What nations are the fallen nations/towers, then?

[Kahsm]

She wanted him to wait 50 days. The point I assume was that he'd be there to fight off the attack and thus warning Elayne would be moot. She had, and I assume all of us have, faith that the band could fend off just about anything, especially if they're allowed in the city to defend the walls.

 

But he negotiated down to 30, and the question is why would she agree to that? I figure she didn't know exactly when the attack would happen and so she wanted 50 days to be safe, but then hoped 30 would be enough. Maybe his Ta'veren-ness tugged, maybe the pattern required Mat to save Moir more than it needed Caemlyn safe. Who knows. But I think Verin's plan was sound given her rather tight time restrictions.

 

It think Verin preferred to have Mat wait, she didn't actually want him to open the letter. That's why she said he would have to do something for her. If he opened the letter, warned Elayne, then left, Elayne would still be pretty screwed. I believe she was betting on his mistrust of Aes Seai to keep him there as long as possible.

 

Edit: Got the right number of days.

[Dreggs Morlock]

Egwene saw towers falling in a dream in ToM, then one get torn down, only to spring up again, stronger than ever. I thought, after the first re-read, the towers were the nations in Randland, and the tower half destroyed talked of Andor and the Trolloc attacks in the city. This seemed like the best thread to bring that up, since it didn't deserve its own thread, though having said that, it probably has one I didn't see!!

 

What nations are the fallen nations/towers, then?

Now THAT is a tough Question for me, since I am not a hawk on these things as others here are.

 

I'll give it my best shot, though I am sure others will correct me, or slam me, as the case may be:

Andor and Cairhien (the tower breaking, then becoming stronger);

Tear with Darlin;

Saldea with Perrin;

Seanchan territories;

Illian;

Aran Doman;

 

... and I'm lost now. Help? I don't "finish" theories, I just throw them out there and hope someone else will back me up! LOL.

[Kahsm]

Egwene saw towers falling in a dream in ToM, then one get torn down, only to spring up again, stronger than ever. I thought, after the first re-read, the towers were the nations in Randland, and the tower half destroyed talked of Andor and the Trolloc attacks in the city. This seemed like the best thread to bring that up, since it didn't deserve its own thread, though having said that, it probably has one I didn't see!!

 

What nations are the fallen nations/towers, then?

Now THAT is a tough Question for me, since I am not a hawk on these things as others here are.

 

I'll give it my best shot, though I am sure others will correct me, or slam me, as the case may be:

Andor and Cairhien (the tower breaking, then becoming stronger);

Tear with Darlin;

Saldea with Perrin;

Seanchan territories;

Illian;

Aran Doman;

 

... and I'm lost now. Help? I don't "finish" theories, I just throw them out there and hope someone else will back me up! LOL.

 

I thought that might be it too (though obviously I was thinking Tar Valon would be the nation to rise higher as per Elaida's Fortelling), but I could not see any way to condense all the nations and city states into a clean 13. There's just too many. I bet there Is a way if yous tart grouping them like "Seanchan" and "Dragon's Lands" maybe break out "Two Rivers". But it's just not clear enough, as far as I can tell, to make any sense.

[Dreggs Morlock]

Egwene saw towers falling in a dream in ToM, then one get torn down, only to spring up again, stronger than ever. I thought, after the first re-read, the towers were the nations in Randland, and the tower half destroyed talked of Andor and the Trolloc attacks in the city. This seemed like the best thread to bring that up, since it didn't deserve its own thread, though having said that, it probably has one I didn't see!!

 

What nations are the fallen nations/towers, then?

Now THAT is a tough Question for me, since I am not a hawk on these things as others here are.

 

I'll give it my best shot, though I am sure others will correct me, or slam me, as the case may be:

Andor and Cairhien (the tower breaking, then becoming stronger);

Tear with Darlin;

Saldea with Perrin;

Seanchan territories;

Illian;

Aran Doman;

 

... and I'm lost now. Help? I don't "finish" theories, I just throw them out there and hope someone else will back me up! LOL.

 

I thought that might be it too (though obviously I was thinking Tar Valon would be the nation to rise higher as per Elaida's Fortelling), but I could not see any way to condense all the nations and city states into a clean 13. There's just too many. I bet there Is a way if yous tart grouping them like "Seanchan" and "Dragon's Lands" maybe break out "Two Rivers". But it's just not clear enough, as far as I can tell, to make any sense.

For me as well. This sounds like a job for ... SOMEONE ELSE! Luckers, anyone?

 

JUST KIDDING!!

[Winespring Patron]

I don't really understand why Verin didn't send a letter directly to Elayne, she has a standing Army, the Queen's Guard. The Band of the Hand is not officially in the Andor Chain of Command, just contracted for a special project. Plus Elayne could have probably utilized 10 or so strong Kin to destroy the Waygate properly before it gets used by the Shadowspawn.

 

If Elayne was given a choice: Go to FOM with Army and make a symbolic gesture or stay in Caemlyn to protect it from an imminent attack; I think we all know that the Amyrlin would end up very disapponted...

[tlburchhardt]

Maybe Verin "miscalculated" because she knew what Mat would do and she wanted the attacks to occur. SHE WAS BLACK AJAH! Just because she gave a death bed confession doesn't mean she wasn't doing bad stuff.

[Kahsm]

Maybe Verin "miscalculated" because she knew what Mat would do and she wanted the attacks to occur. SHE WAS BLACK AJAH! Just because she gave a death bed confession doesn't mean she wasn't doing bad stuff.

 

She wasn't a darkfriend, she had just, "accidentally", got herself into a position where she had to swear the oaths or likely die. DEEP undercover if you will. Now obviously she'd have to do bad stuff to keep that cover, but I doubt it in the hour of your death.

 

Also, she originally wanted 50 days which would have kept Mat there till the attack. I still think she was hoping 30 would be enough. She knew he wouldn't open the letter if it meant following Aes Sedai instructions. That's why she said it like that and not that it was just a message for Elayne. She wanted the Band to be there.

[Winespring Patron]

Maybe Verin "miscalculated" because she knew what Mat would do and she wanted the attacks to occur. SHE WAS BLACK AJAH! Just because she gave a death bed confession doesn't mean she wasn't doing bad stuff.

 

 

Also, she originally wanted 50 days which would have kept Mat there till the attack. I still think she was hoping 30 would be enough. She knew he wouldn't open the letter if it meant following Aes Sedai instructions. That's why she said it like that and not that it was just a message for Elayne. She wanted the Band to be there.

 

 

And thus lies the "grand" miscalculation of Verin really not knowing Mat, despite Mat's pretense of contempt for Aes Sedai and "Bloody Queen's with their nose in the Air." There is no way Mat is going to say "Elayne, Trollocs and Fades are about to come bursting out of your [secure and guarded] Waygate; ummm, Good Luck, I'm sure you and Birgitte will handle it just fine. Oh yeah, love to help but I've got my own secret mission to go on..." Matt has developed a close rapport with Elayne since Ebou Dar and now regards her protectively, almost the same as he would Bode or Eldrin. I find it hard to imagine him leaving Elayne in a potential disaster if Verin had just told him the news immediately or to open the letter in 10 days and relay the news.

 

Also, Caemlyn has the world's only manufactury and depot for the revolutionary new weapon. You can be sure he wouldn't leave the city if he thought his Dragons might be destroyed or captured. Remember how Aludra kidded Mat about how "precious" his gold chest was, Well, Caemlyn and the Dragons are even more precious then that. He would have certainly delayed his Moirane rescue mission if he thought his chief financial backer and his secret Armory were under an imminent threat...

 

It doesn't make sense any way you look at it, Verin manipulating him into something he was already going to do, whether it be to stay in Caemlyn or help defend it from a Darkside plot. She initially asked him to wait 10 days then tryed to negotiate 50 for the non-opening option. Verin should have

anticipated that Elayne would be shifting her Army in order to consolidate Cairhien or possibly lending troops to the White Tower / Borderlands. The results of the current situation are the same as if Verin didn't give Mat a letter or instructions. Mat has, except for his ToG jaunt, pretty much established Caemlyn as his HQ and base of operations. He has access to the infrastructure and support of the Host Nation government, why would Verin be obsessed about him pulling up stakes suddenly and leaving with his Army?

 

Mat's meeting with Perrin at the Happy Throng occurred just over 2 weeks after Verin deposited him and the Band at Caemlyn. He announced to Perrin that he would leave soon on his ToG mission and asked to "borrow" a gateway. I'm guessing "soon" means several days and not 2 weeks, but I believe that Mat left Caemlyn 3 weeks after talking with Verin and didn't wait a full 30 days in Caemlyn. This is an important detail because there will be fans who insist that he waited the full 30 days before Gating to the Tower of Ghenjei.

 

The Band Lore (superstition) only allows for winning improbable victories as long as Mat is physically present; Was that Verin's intent, to position Mat at a specific location as a failsafe? In that case, she should have specified that he personally stay in or near the city until: A. She returned to relieve him of the letter, B. Open it after 10 days and perform her task, or C. After 30 days he could move his Army away from Caemlyn. Mat's interpretation of "waiting" is stationing his Army in or near Caemlyn, Verin didn't tell him the agreement forbid him from personally "Gating or Skimming" short trips.

[Kahsm]

Maybe Verin "miscalculated" because she knew what Mat would do and she wanted the attacks to occur. SHE WAS BLACK AJAH! Just because she gave a death bed confession doesn't mean she wasn't doing bad stuff.

 

 

Also, she originally wanted 50 days which would have kept Mat there till the attack. I still think she was hoping 30 would be enough. She knew he wouldn't open the letter if it meant following Aes Sedai instructions. That's why she said it like that and not that it was just a message for Elayne. She wanted the Band to be there.

 

 

And thus lies the "grand" miscalculation of Verin really not knowing Mat, despite Mat's pretense of contempt for Aes Sedai and "Bloody Queen's with their nose in the Air." There is no way Mat is going to say "Elayne, Trollocs and Fades are about to come bursting out of your [secure and guarded] Waygate; ummm, Good Luck, I'm sure you and Birgitte will handle it just fine. Oh yeah, love to help but I've got my own secret mission to go on..." Matt has developed a close rapport with Elayne since Ebou Dar and now regards her protectively, almost the same as he would Bode or Eldrin. I find it hard to imagine him leaving Elayne in a potential disaster if Verin had just told him the news immediately or to open the letter in 10 days and relay the news.

 

Also, Caemlyn has the world's only manufactury and depot for the revolutionary new weapon. You can be sure he wouldn't leave the city if he thought his Dragons might be destroyed or captured. Remember how Aludra kidded Mat about how "precious" his gold chest was, Well, Caemlyn and the Dragons are even more precious then that. He would have certainly delayed his Moirane rescue mission if he thought his chief financial backer and his secret Armory were under an imminent threat...

 

It doesn't make sense any way you look at it, Verin manipulating him into something he was already going to do, whether it be to stay in Caemlyn or help defend it from a Darkside plot. She initially asked him to wait 10 days then tryed to negotiate 50 for the non-opening option. Verin should have

anticipated that Elayne would be shifting her Army in order to consolidate Cairhien or possibly lending troops to the White Tower / Borderlands. The results of the current situation are the same as if Verin didn't give Mat a letter or instructions. Mat has, except for his ToG jaunt, pretty much established Caemlyn as his HQ and base of operations. He has access to the infrastructure and support of the Host Nation government, why would Verin be obsessed about him pulling up stakes suddenly and leaving with his Army?

 

Mat's meeting with Perrin at the Happy Throng occurred just over 2 weeks after Verin deposited him and the Band at Caemlyn. He announced to Perrin that he would leave soon on his ToG mission and asked to "borrow" a gateway. I'm guessing "soon" means several days and not 2 weeks, but I believe that Mat left Caemlyn 3 weeks after talking with Verin and didn't wait a full 30 days in Caemlyn. This is an important detail because there will be fans who insist that he waited the full 30 days before Gating to the Tower of Ghenjei.

 

The Band Lore (superstition) only allows for winning improbable victories as long as Mat is physically present; Was that Verin's intent, to position Mat at a specific location as a failsafe? In that case, she should have specified that he personally stay in or near the city until: A. She returned to relieve him of the letter, B. Open it after 10 days and perform her task, or C. After 30 days he could move his Army away from Caemlyn. Mat's interpretation of "waiting" is stationing his Army in or near Caemlyn, Verin didn't tell him the agreement forbid him from personally "Gating or Skimming" short trips.

 

You're assuming he'd believe the letter and wait 50 days because an Aes Sedai thinks something might be coming. I think her plan was quite good. If mat did break the deal that's hardly her fault. Or if he left without the band.

 

Verin can't puppeteer everyone and control every detail. Some things come down to chance as you pointed out, you can't say she misscalculated because you don't know what she thought the chances of success were.

 

If she was fairly confident the attack would happen in 20 days, the plan would be fine, the attack just happened to be late.

[Snarf]

I have a big problem with Verin's letters. What of her Oath? "I swear not to betray the Great Lord, to keep my secrets until the hour of my death." (tGS, ch39) Aes Sedai cannot write lies, the first Oath will not allow it. So, that would mean the the BA Oath would also prevent one from revealing their plans in writing. I can accept the book she gave to Egwene, she didn't give it to her until her last hour, and never intended to give the book up until then. But her letters are strewn across Randland. Bloody GALAD got one. Arguably, the contents may not be reveals of her secrets. But are we really to believe that she had her fingers in that many DF plot pies?

[Kahsm]

I have a big problem with Verin's letters. What of her Oath? "I swear not to betray the Great Lord, to keep my secrets until the hour of my death." (tGS, ch39) Aes Sedai cannot write lies, the first Oath will not allow it. So, that would mean the the BA Oath would also prevent one from revealing their plans in writing. I can accept the book she gave to Egwene, she didn't give it to her until her last hour, and never intended to give the book up until then. But her letters are strewn across Randland. Bloody GALAD got one. Arguably, the contents may not be reveals of her secrets. But are we really to believe that she had her fingers in that many DF plot pies?

 

If the Aes Sedai never intended anyone to ever see what she wrote, she may be able to pen a lie. Thus allowing Verin to pen things to be read in the future when the oath wouldn't apply.

 

Also, Verin just needs to convince herself it doesn't break the oaths.

[David Selig]

Yes, the whole thing is a pretty bad and blatant plot device which makes no sense. All Verin had to do was say to Mat that deal was "Stay in Caemlyn and open the letter after 10 days". Of course he'd tell the Queen after that. And after the Waygate is destroyed (which Verin herself thought possible), there isn't a need for him to stay there anymore.

 

And thus lies the "grand" miscalculation of Verin really not knowing Mat, despite Mat's pretense of contempt for Aes Sedai and "Bloody Queen's with their nose in the Air." There is no way Mat is going to say "Elayne, Trollocs and Fades are about to come bursting out of your [secure and guarded] Waygate; ummm, Good Luck, I'm sure you and Birgitte will handle it just fine. Oh yeah, love to help but I've got my own secret mission to go on..." Matt has developed a close rapport with Elayne since Ebou Dar and now regards her protectively, almost the same as he would Bode or Eldrin. I find it hard to imagine him leaving Elayne in a potential disaster if Verin had just told him the news immediately or to open the letter in 10 days and relay the news.

 

Also, Caemlyn has the world's only manufactury and depot for the revolutionary new weapon. You can be sure he wouldn't leave the city if he thought his Dragons might be destroyed or captured. Remember how Aludra kidded Mat about how "precious" his gold chest was, Well, Caemlyn and the Dragons are even more precious then that. He would have certainly delayed his Moirane rescue mission if he thought his chief financial backer and his secret Armory were under an imminent threat...

In fairness to Verin, she had no idea about most of that. Her plan still makes little sense though. The least she could do was hedge her bets by telling Egwene too and mentioning the invasion in the letter to Rand.

[contempt]

Mat's meeting with Perrin at the Happy Throng occurred just over 2 weeks after Verin deposited him and the Band at Caemlyn. He announced to Perrin that he would leave soon on his ToG mission and asked to "borrow" a gateway. I'm guessing "soon" means several days and not 2 weeks, but I believe that Mat left Caemlyn 3 weeks after talking with Verin and didn't wait a full 30 days in Caemlyn. This is an important detail because there will be fans who insist that he waited the full 30 days before Gating to the Tower of Ghenjei.

 

Mat did stay in Caemlyn for 3 weeks and he did wait 30 days before leaving. He did not break his oath. One week in the WoT universe is 10 days. See BWB for conformation.

 

Also, Verin just needs to convince herself it doesn't break the oaths.

 

Agreed.

 

How about, "Hey Matt, I'll give you a ride to where ever you need to go, then I need to leave for a bit. If I don't come back within a week, open this, it has important information."

 

DUH.

 

Also agreed.

 

Although I do think it was profoundly stupid for Verin not to also tell Egwene, given that she was unsure enough to have originally wanted him to stay 50 days.

[Asgard Thorin]

Egwene saw towers falling in a dream in ToM, then one get torn down, only to spring up again, stronger than ever. I thought, after the first re-read, the towers were the nations in Randland, and the tower half destroyed talked of Andor and the Trolloc attacks in the city. This seemed like the best thread to bring that up, since it didn't deserve its own thread, though having said that, it probably has one I didn't see!!

 

What nations are the fallen nations/towers, then?

 

I liked the theory that they represented the Forsaken, since that seemed to support my Be'lTaiMoridin theory....but if they weren't symbolic then they would be the Seanchan Towers of Midnight, the unmanned fortresses we read of in the very beginning (I think) Speaking of Towers, I think the cover title refered to the Towers Mat. Thom and Noal went into inside the ToG. Remember the description of the hallways and that they were in several Towers. And Verin didn't mess up. If Mat read it before she foreswore on the Rod, she was violating her oath

[jsbrads]

Verin planned to come back, and her plans upon coming back to Camlym was probably more extensive than just having Mat pass info on to Elayne, but that one detail that camlyn was to be under attack was the one thing she couldn't chance on anyone other than Mat, Egwene wasn't a DF, but she could have been killed pretty easily, Mat was Taveren...

[Dreggs Morlock]

Sorry, but looking at it from Verin's point of view, the whole idea that this letter was sufficient to forestall the trolloc invasion makes no sense. She seemed to be soooo thorough, except in this one instance.

 

More and more, I would love to hear what BS has to say about this topic.

[FarShainMael]

I wonder..

 

All we have been told about Caemlyn is this:

 

Talmanes stood just outside the tent, looking eastward. Toward Caemlyn. A reddish haze hung on the horizon, a glow over the city. One larger than had been there on other nights.

 

"Light preserve us," Talmanes whispered. "It's burning. The city is burning."

 

A 'larger glow' doesn't sound like a major fire, though we don't know how far the camp is from the city.

 

I wonder whether Verin lied in her note, perhaps to try to keep Mat in Caemlyn, or at least away from where he should be - namely, at the WT getting the HoV, or at the Last Battle itself.

 

In short.. has Verin been Black all along? Did Laras poison Verin on her own initiative, rather than at Verin's request?

 

Yes, I know there's a lot of holes in that idea.. at least as many holes as there are in the apparent motive for that note.