Mistborn Mafia

Blackhoof · May 14, 2011

phew, it was good that Talya wasnt lynched yesterday; we would have lost one of ours.

really, Tinker? it is clear that the last cult, the last threat to the town unless another scum is running around, is Key. Why would i vote my cultmaster?

Besides, how do we know that Key has not recruited you, Tinker, last Night? Or tina?

Key is the most sensible lynch for today. If she is dead and we still have not won, we will have to look deeper.

Vote Key

Niniel · May 14, 2011

I´m afraid me and Griefy choose the same target tonight. Good that we got rid of Talya but there is still one, or two, cult left. The fact that there were no stabbing in the eyes makes me believe that there is only one. I´ll wait and see what Griefy can tell us about this night. Right now it seems like a Key lynch would be best but I won´t do any quick voteing.

Tiinker - why do you think Blackhoof should be lynched?

GoodGrief · May 14, 2011

Yeah, I rock

I killed Talya, for anyone still wondering. She must have been the last mafia, unless Tina's ability blocks all mafia kills if it hits a mafia. Can you confirm?

I have confirmed that Tina is still town, and since there was no cult kill last night that means she and Tiinker are still confirmed innocents. That leaves Blackhoof and Key. Blackhoof is acting weird but doesn't add up as either evil faction, so my sights are on Key.

Blackhoof · May 14, 2011

excellent work griefy- we now know that the Cult has not received an NK, or at least did not use it, perhaps recruiting instead :\

Talya gone has saved us from lynching her, as we surely would have today.

GoodGrief · May 14, 2011

If the recruiting follows the books then they would need a spike that had been recently used to kill someone. Also Alanna was the cultmaster and another cultist was killed Night One, when there was a spike killing. Leelou must have been recruited that night which means spike killings do not alternate with recruitment but can (and most likely must) occur on the same night. Also if they recruited every night they would have won ages ago, so I think they can only recruit when they kill. Taking out an opposing player and turning another one to your side means you would be three up, so in balance terms it seems reasonable to suppose they can only kill/recruit every three nights, which correlates with what we've seen: spike killings on nights One and Four. Someone might have inherited the kill/recruit power but they would have had to have inherited the same restrictions. So I'd say there's only one cultist.

Tiinker · May 14, 2011

Okay since we only need 3 to lynch can one of you atleast unvote so we can discuss, also because I'm pretty damn sure Key is innocent.

Tiinker · May 14, 2011

Doo it :p I'll be back in little bit and will see if i can pick out the points which make me constantly think Blackhoof/MCS was and is cult since early game.

Blackhoof · May 14, 2011

Very well.

Unvote

Explain why i am cult, i would liek to shoot down your theories before i go to bed, plz XD

Blackhoof · May 14, 2011

If the recruiting follows the books then they would need a spike that had been recently used to kill someone. Also Alanna was the cultmaster and another cultist was killed Night One, when there was a spike killing. Leelou must have been recruited that night which means spike killings do not alternate with recruitment but can (and most likely must) occur on the same night. Also if they recruited every night they would have won ages ago, so I think they can only recruit when they kill. Taking out an opposing player and turning another one to your side means you would be three up, so in balance terms it seems reasonable to suppose they can only kill/recruit every three nights, which correlates with what we've seen: spike killings on nights One and Four. Someone might have inherited the kill/recruit power but they would have had to have inherited the same restrictions. So I'd say there's only one cultist.

missed this when i replied before. a good theory, i must say. it makes sense and is logical. what day is it now? 6 i think. that means that, assuming the cultist inherited their masters powers, the Night after tonight will be a kill/recruit. that gives us plenty of time to win the game :D

Niniel · May 14, 2011

Good job Griefy!

I think that my ability only works on one person at a time. I know I sucessfully blocked Talya from killing someone this night. (But she probably couldn´t have killed anyone anyway since she died herself.)

Tiinker I would like to know why you expect Key to be town. And I want to hear something from Key. You wrote that you had something interesting to say this day.

Tiinker · May 14, 2011

I agree with Meesh. You have gone after people for numerous trivial reasons Wombat. To highlight a few, you said that song and I voting for each other at the beginning of the game was scummy, when it was OBVIOUS that we were flirting with one another. And then you go after Tiink for being a responsible player and re-reading the thread instead of randomly putting his vote on someone? It seems to me that you are going out of your way to be scummier than normal, and Ive never seen that used as a viable town strategy.

So I Vote Wombat. I think it's possible that you are acting as a heat shield to draw attention from your mafia compatriots.

So this is the first post that really at the time made me watch MCS as town. The fact that he was ready for both lynches on Meesh and Wombat was pretty much enough for me to confirm that.

then comes Alannas vote right after MCS post:

I think the best information will come from a Tiinker lynch at this point, because I also found thr MCS-Tiinker-Song thing yesterday a bit iffy. Wombat is acting odd, yes, but not any odder than normal, and lynching him won't clear up any of these other suspicions.

I do want to say I don't really buy Talya being connected to Tiinker because she defended the reread comment. Mostly because I also think it's dumb that people are called scum for saying they're going to do a reread, whether they come back and do it or not. Why? Because I've said that when I innocent and mafia. As it is, I just never do rereads anymore because I know someone will immediately jump on me for saying so.

Completely different to MCS, and probably just going for a quick lynch hoping to get one town knocked down.

So far, Alanna and MCS seem to have pretty different conclusions, doesn't really seem at all like they could be working together they way they've gone in completely different directions.

MCS gets switched for Blackhoof in the following days and nothing really happens in those days - pretty inactive game at that point I think.

Then,

you are right, griefy, the situation is dire. we need to lynch the right people or the town loses, and with this much inactivity, we have no real suspects. You, Griefy are confirmed. As are the people you viewed, luckily we still have a doctor amongst us, as well. We havent lost yet town, we need to lynch one of the unconfirmed people, the one who has exhibited the most suspicion. From what i have seen: Tina.

Vote tina

Griefy, i have had a thought on the cult. What if one night they stake someone (stealing their power) and the next night recruit someone with that same stake. Also, do your search results come back "Innocent/Not Innocent" or "Mafia/Not Mafia" or what?

Pushing for a lynch by voting Tina without a real basis? You didn't really provide any evidence, just chose someone who looked to be acting slightly out of the ordinary and voted. Personally, I didn't see anything fishy in Tina's behaviour or anything so it struck me as odd. Reading through your post I find it hard to believe you voted her by accident :P

woops lol, i meant Alanna, not tina.

unvote

vote alanna

good point about the cult though, maybe leelou was a sort of cult-sympathiser. it said she was an "obligator pawn" after all, meaning that she was just being used by them. maybe she won with the cult without knowing them and had to relay messages for the real cult. Perhapos the cult didnt know who she was either, and perhaps she never knew what the messages were, just that she relayed them.

the complexities....

perhaps the cult can choose to spike someone or recruit them, and can collect a stockpile of charged stakes to recruit with later on.

whats the deadline again?

Adding some unnecessary complexities in here. In a million years this idea wouldn't ever occur to me T_T

that soon!

Wait.... we dont NEED to lynch someone... statistically, there are more Cult and scum than town, so a random lynch should, statistically, result in an anti-town lynch.

unvote

Let us see how fortune smiles upon us....

Quick unvote, then you contradict your previous post. Seems like erratic behaviour just hoping to vote ANYONE.

The ball then jumps on Alanna, and after two votes of four you jump back on claiming you "never really wavered" from voting her. Cover up?

well, in my defence for the erratic voting thing, first i thought i was voting alanna for some reason. i was weird that day. needed more coffee :P secondly i corrected my mistake. Thirdly i was under false pretenses with the deadline (thinking it was within hours) and fourthly i was correcting my mistake again.

See, i never really wavered from alanna.

I am not sure how long the deadline is away, but i caution the hammering of alanna until we are at the cusp of the deadline, and are about to run out of time. With so few people left, we must be cautious.

Cautious? I thought a random lynch would work in our favour! Once someone on your team gets targeted your mentality changes and you're hoping we slow down and pick up a vote on someone else.

I also notice though that you didn't unvote Alanna and vote Talya but I'm just willing to bet that you weren't on at the time because your usually posting like a decent active player :p -boo inactive-

Then after Talya gets killed and I vote for you,

phew, it was good that Talya wasnt lynched yesterday; we would have lost one of ours.

really, Tinker? it is clear that the last cult, the last threat to the town unless another scum is running around, is Key. Why would i vote my cultmaster?

Besides, how do we know that Key has not recruited you, Tinker, last Night? Or tina?

Key is the most sensible lynch for today. If she is dead and we still have not won, we will have to look deeper.

Vote Key

You push for a Key lynch and then say it might be possible that Key has recruited me or Tina.

But here you said that it's unlikely that the cultists could not inherit the recruiting power.

From what i know, Steel Inquisitors can be made by spiking ordinary people like, 13 times, but they need other Steel Inquisitors to do it. Therefore, it is unlikely that the last Cultists are able to inherit the recruiting power.

Gaining a Night Kill is plausible, but not replacing the Cultmaster.

Defensive plea? Have I found you out? MMMMM?

Griefy is innocent - Our finder, was the key to the lynch on Wombat day 1, NK'd Talya. Basically trusted her this whole game now.

Tiinker - Well I was the one to say lynch both Wombat and Meesh, was the second of four on the lynch for Alanna who was the Cultmaster. Plus I was viewed 2 Nights ago.

Tina - Also been viewed and came up as innocent. She wasn't on the Alanna lynch but to be honest she hasn't really crossed my mind as being Cult. Could very well be though.

Key - Well, I know she isn't mafia. But I haven't heard from her since two days ago. POSSIBLY recruited. But I've got a lot more to believe your cult than she is.

And yeah I put the summary at the bottom so you guys would read through all that crap that I just spent 30 minutes looking for :D

GoodGrief · May 14, 2011

Imma go out on a limb and say Key is your mason buddy since you know for certain she isn't mafia and you don't have an investigative role (unless Locke has interpreted your misting ability creatively). But she could very well have been recruited. Of the three people who didn't vote for Alanna, one was Alanna herself, one was confirmed again last night, and the other way Key.

Blackhoof is all kinds of shifty, but he has come into this game late and has had to catch up so it's not inconceivable that he had trouble following what was what when he first joined. I'm inclined to think he made an honest mistake in voting Tina straight off because if he was just trying to get anyone but his cultmaster lynched then Talya would have made an obvious choice. True, he could have seen which way the wind was blowing and jumped on the wagon, especially if he was going to inherit cultmaster powers. At this stage of the game, killing an innocent and converting another one would mean they would equal our numbers and win. But no one was killed last night, so there's just one cultist - whoever was recruited on Night 4. They will have to survive until they can recruit again or the game gets whittled down to two people to win. If they had a limited number of uses of the recruiting power they would have used it last night, but they didn't, so it must be an every-three-nights deal. There's no way the lone cultist can survive that long, and if Blackhoof was cult when he voted Alanna he would have known that. I think he's more likely to be a fourth party if he's anti-town, which leaves only one candidate for cult.

Besides, if we lynch Key and don't win then he won't survive to recruit.

Blackhoof · May 15, 2011

You push for a Key lynch and then say it might be possible that Key has recruited me or Tina.

But here you said that it's unlikely that the cultists could not inherit the recruiting power.

From what i know, Steel Inquisitors can be made by spiking ordinary people like, 13 times, but they need other Steel Inquisitors to do it. Therefore, it is unlikely that the last Cultists are able to inherit the recruiting power.

Gaining a Night Kill is plausible, but not replacing the Cultmaster.

Defensive plea? Have I found you out? MMMMM?

I said that it was unlikely that the cultist inherited the masters power. But to completely dismiss it would be foolish.

An idea has just struck me. The first night, Ellianora was spiked, a tineye. Leelou was killed that night as well, presumably she had just been recruited. Spiking works by stealing the victims power and giving it to the spiked, so, if Leelou had just been recruited with the spike used to kill Ellianora why was she not a tineye? It makes no sense.

What if, Leelou had not been recruited that night? what if she started cult? she had no power- she was merely a messenger. So, assuming Leelou and Alanna started cult, and there have been two NK/recruitings, there should still be two cult left.

Isn't that.... coincidental that we have a "mason" who very well could have been recruited the night he was viewed- potentially fudging the result- and a person who we all think is cult that Tinker is desperately trying to protect.

Funny, right? :rolleyes:

Time for Key to go, and if we still have not won, i know where my vote goes tommorow.

Vote Key

Niniel · May 15, 2011

If I have it right we now have two votes for Key (Griefy, Blackhoof) and one for Blackhoof (Tiinker). That leaves me and Key. Right now I´m almost certain that I will vote Key but I would like to hear from her first. Key - If you would like to defend yourself this would be a good time.

Tiinker · May 15, 2011

YOu said you were going to shut down my post so I was expecting something more than a response to one line of it. Care to explain the rest?

GoodGrief · May 15, 2011

I asked Locke, he said if I viewed someone on the night they turned I would see both alignments. When I viewed Tina and Tiinker I only got 'town'. Tiinker was viewed on the night of the last cult kill, Tina since then. They are innocent. If Tiinker and Key are masons he may have a restriction against voting for her. When is the deadline?

Sorry for short post, fingers stiff from cold and dinner imminent.

Niniel · May 15, 2011

YOu said you were going to shut down my post so I was expecting something more than a response to one line of it. Care to explain the rest?

You posted this after my post but is it adressed to me? If it is I don´t understand.

Blackhoof · May 15, 2011

then comes Alannas vote right after MCS post:

I think the best information will come from a Tiinker lynch at this point, because I also found thr MCS-Tiinker-Song thing yesterday a bit iffy. Wombat is acting odd, yes, but not any odder than normal, and lynching him won't clear up any of these other suspicions.

I do want to say I don't really buy Talya being connected to Tiinker because she defended the reread comment. Mostly because I also think it's dumb that people are called scum for saying they're going to do a reread, whether they come back and do it or not. Why? Because I've said that when I innocent and mafia. As it is, I just never do rereads anymore because I know someone will immediately jump on me for saying so.

Completely different to MCS, and probably just going for a quick lynch hoping to get one town knocked down.

So far, Alanna and MCS seem to have pretty different conclusions, doesn't really seem at all like they could be working together they way they've gone in completely different directions.

precisely

MCS gets switched for Blackhoof in the following days and nothing really happens in those days - pretty inactive game at that point I think.

well, i was still getting a feel or the game.

Then,

you are right, griefy, the situation is dire. we need to lynch the right people or the town loses, and with this much inactivity, we have no real suspects. You, Griefy are confirmed. As are the people you viewed, luckily we still have a doctor amongst us, as well. We havent lost yet town, we need to lynch one of the unconfirmed people, the one who has exhibited the most suspicion. From what i have seen: Tina.

Vote tina

Griefy, i have had a thought on the cult. What if one night they stake someone (stealing their power) and the next night recruit someone with that same stake. Also, do your search results come back "Innocent/Not Innocent" or "Mafia/Not Mafia" or what?

Pushing for a lynch by voting Tina without a real basis? You didn't really provide any evidence, just chose someone who looked to be acting slightly out of the ordinary and voted. Personally, I didn't see anything fishy in Tina's behaviour or anything so it struck me as odd. Reading through your post I find it hard to believe you voted her by accident :P

i've covered this- it was a mistake. i got confused and thought that tina was alanna and alanna was tina. i dont know what you mean by saying "reading through your post i find it hard to believe it was an accident" when my post only mentioned her in the last line of the frist paragraph. i thought she was unconfirmed. can we move past this now?

woops lol, i meant Alanna, not tina.

unvote

vote alanna

good point about the cult though, maybe leelou was a sort of cult-sympathiser. it said she was an "obligator pawn" after all, meaning that she was just being used by them. maybe she won with the cult without knowing them and had to relay messages for the real cult. Perhapos the cult didnt know who she was either, and perhaps she never knew what the messages were, just that she relayed them.

the complexities....

perhaps the cult can choose to spike someone or recruit them, and can collect a stockpile of charged stakes to recruit with later on.

whats the deadline again?

Adding some unnecessary complexities in here. In a million years this idea wouldn't ever occur to me T_T

Well, i like to cover all bases. i've seen whole mafia games structured around false assumptions or unfounded beliefs. it pays to consider the different complexities the Mod may have added. Shaving with Occams Razor doesnt always pay. like i mentioned earlier, why didnt Leelou have a power? and since she was using it that night, she must have had it before she was recruited. we shouldnt just take the simplest explanation and leave it at that.

that soon!

Wait.... we dont NEED to lynch someone... statistically, there are more Cult and scum than town, so a random lynch should, statistically, result in an anti-town lynch.

unvote

Let us see how fortune smiles upon us....

Quick unvote, then you contradict your previous post. Seems like erratic behaviour just hoping to vote ANYONE.

i thought that he meant the deadline was the next day. we hadnt made much progress on a lynch and i panicked, before falsely remembering Griefy's math the day before and thinking that there were more cult + mafia than town, and a random lynch would be good.

The ball then jumps on Alanna, and after two votes of four you jump back on claiming you "never really wavered" from voting her. Cover up?

well, a correction on an embarrassing mistake. i never really did waver from alanna. besides, why would i default back to my cultmaster? cult and scum only jump on comrades lynches when they are going down, and alanna wasn't really going down at the time. Talya would have been a better choice than my cultmaster. in fact i was on when Talya was at L-1, if i was cult, would i not have rubbed my hands together, grinned and voted her?

well, in my defence for the erratic voting thing, first i thought i was voting alanna for some reason. i was weird that day. needed more coffee :P secondly i corrected my mistake. Thirdly i was under false pretenses with the deadline (thinking it was within hours) and fourthly i was correcting my mistake again.

See, i never really wavered from alanna.

I am not sure how long the deadline is away, but i caution the hammering of alanna until we are at the cusp of the deadline, and are about to run out of time. With so few people left, we must be cautious.

Cautious? I thought a random lynch would work in our favour! Once someone on your team gets targeted your mentality changes and you're hoping we slow down and pick up a vote on someone else.

I also notice though that you didn't unvote Alanna and vote Talya but I'm just willing to bet that you weren't on at the time because your usually posting like a decent active player :p -boo inactive-

well, i try, but mum gets angry if i am on too much :P

the rest i have already answered.

shut- wait for it -DOWN!

@Griefy: drats, and my theory was so good :P Well, what if there is a bus driver around? what if you recived the innocent reading of someone else? or a deflector, perhaps.

then again, i would really like my theory to be vindicated. :rolleyes: dont let that make you discount the idea, though.

Tiinker · May 15, 2011

Really really not. You haven't given me a reason at all to think your not cult. I'll vote Key if I have to though I'd prefer not to. It still makes a lot more sense in my view to vote you first and then Key if the game is still not over.

Locke · May 15, 2011

Vote Count:

Key (2) - Blackhoof; Griefy

Blackhoof (1) - Tinker

With 5 alive it takes 3 to lynch.

Deadline is 7:00 PM Tuesday.

GoodGrief · May 16, 2011

Otherwise known as 2AM Wednesday for me. That's 16 hours away.

I still think it makes no sense for Blackhoof to vote for his own cultmaster unless there's a lot more going on than I have accounted for. And I've done a fair bit of accounting. I mean there are word documents with votecounts and theories and tables simulating possible scenarios and rambling paragraphs about mafia and cults that are going to make worrying reading for my parents if they ever stumble across them. It's pretty much impossible for the cult to win at this point, assuming my results are reliable. Why would Blackhoof doom his own faction when there was another viable candidate. He's far more likely to be mafia and the whole Wombat thing was a massive Kivam gambit from the beginning than he is to be cult, because as valuable as Wombat was to the mafia, that would still potentially be a winning strategy at that stage of the game. A cultist voting for the cultmaster with the numbers as they are now is a losing strategy. It doesn't add up. But I'll revisit my position tonight if no one has budged. If Blackhoof turns out to be mafia or SK it won't be a waste.

keyholder21 · May 16, 2011

the reason i think that Key is cult is because she was the only one other than a semi-confirmed innocent not on Alanna's lynch. No cultist would risk the cultmaster unless they were sure that they would inherit the cultmaster's powers, and i dont think they are told if they can.

also, people have assumed for a while that Key is cult, based on the process of elimination, and she hasnt said anything to refute that.

So because I didn't vote for Alanna (who I stated I didn't think was acting scummy) I'm automatically cult?

Really? People have assumed for a while? Where? On your cult message board? Because the only person that said I was cult before was you.

phew, it was good that Talya wasnt lynched yesterday; we would have lost one of ours.

really, Tinker? it is clear that the last cult, the last threat to the town unless another scum is running around, is Key. Why would i vote my cultmaster?

If I was cult, why would I be so obvious as to NOT vote for the cultmaster? With so few people left, not to mention the way the vote broke down, that would be ridiculously risky.

I have confirmed that Tina is still town, and since there was no cult kill last night that means she and Tiinker are still confirmed innocents. That leaves Blackhoof and Key. Blackhoof is acting weird but doesn't add up as either evil faction, so my sights are on Key

lol, so because he's being chaotic I'm the evil one?

Imma go out on a limb and say Key is your mason buddy since you know for certain she isn't mafia and you don't have an investigative role (unless Locke has interpreted your misting ability creatively).

I would say that's a pretty strong limb.

Otherwise known as 2AM Wednesday for me. That's 16 hours away.

I still think it makes no sense for Blackhoof to vote for his own cultmaster unless there's a lot more going on than I have accounted for. And I've done a fair bit of accounting. I mean there are word documents with votecounts and theories and tables simulating possible scenarios and rambling paragraphs about mafia and cults that are going to make worrying reading for my parents if they ever stumble across them. It's pretty much impossible for the cult to win at this point, assuming my results are reliable. Why would Blackhoof doom his own faction when there was another viable candidate. He's far more likely to be mafia and the whole Wombat thing was a massive Kivam gambit from the beginning than he is to be cult, because as valuable as Wombat was to the mafia, that would still potentially be a winning strategy at that stage of the game. A cultist voting for the cultmaster with the numbers as they are now is a losing strategy. It doesn't add up. But I'll revisit my position tonight if no one has budged. If Blackhoof turns out to be mafia or SK it won't be a waste.

I answered above why it would make sense for a cult member to vote for the cultmaster. The way the votes laid it would have been dangerous to NOT vote for Alanna. Blackhoof is nicely the third vote on her so as not to put the hammer but to still appear innocent.

Blackhoof · May 16, 2011

a cultist might sacrifice another cultist to look innocent but if the master dies it is over, regardless of whether the cultist looks innocent or not.

Niniel · May 16, 2011

I´m thinking that hopefully there is only one cult member left and no mafia. If we lynch the wrong player both me and Griefy have abilities that could make us win next day anyway. So I vote Key.

Tiinker · May 16, 2011

a cultist might sacrifice another cultist to look innocent but if the master dies it is over, regardless of whether the cultist looks innocent or not.

And yet you wanted to vote me if Key flips innocent even though I was on the lynch before you. Hypocrite much? Well anyways that's 3 votes on Key so I guess we'll see then.

Mistborn Mafia

Recommended Posts

Archived

Stay Connected

Forum Topics

News items

About Dragonmount

Twitter

Facebook