Discuss Demandred

[mossman87]

Everyone just dismissing Murandy is one of the reasons I think he's there, or it's at least a hotbed for Shadow activity. Being right in the center of all the action is not something unimportant whatsoever. Neither does the size of the land matter, Portal Stones, Gateways, The Ways, anything could be used. Roedran has done something no one's been able to do, and that's unite Murandy, but even those people don't really matter, it's all location. Just one possibility of course, but it's in an excellent location to spread a crazy amount of Chaos.

 

Also if you read the WoT Encyclopedia section on Murandy, a lot of one off mentions of various DFs going there, and funny enough Danelle was the one who told Elaida about Roedran's latest activities.

 

I mean come on:

 

 

and http://encyclopaedia...andy/index.html

 

Anyways, Murandy interests me. :)

[Kahlika]

Now, we can use some things we know, or strongly suspect, to eliminate some of these locations. First, the "my rule is secure" comment: this must imply that a) Dem is ruling something; b) what he's ruling has some reason not to be secure; and c) what he's ruling probably wasn't secure in the past...

 

Awesome articulation of a theory :)

 

I feel bad to poke holes in it.

 

But... Demandred stated his rule was secure in the Prologue of TGS. The first we hear of the Civil War in Seanchan is in KoD, we then hear it was resolved in some way by the start of ToM. There wasn't a whole lot of time in Randland time between those books, literally a few weeks. How did Demandred not only take over but secure his rule in even less time than that? He doesn't just say he's ruling, he says his rule is secure, that takes time. And how could anyone's rule in Seandar be considered secure? Whoever rules there doesn't do so securely, they still have to deal with the Forerunners and Tuon to properly secure their rule, and I'm sure they know it.

 

This is a very good point-a forsaken of his stature would not be diverted by such a small, weak country.

 

But he'd be totally fine with playing second to Semirhage in Seanchan?

 

She implied that the Throne was basically hers to give when speaking to Suroth about the death of the Empress, she was clearly the Forsaken in charge there. And she certainly didn't expect Demandred to take it, given that she offered it to Suroth, which seems odd given that they were working together. You could argue that with Semirhage out of the way he opportunistically took it over when he saw the opening, but again that doesn't fit in the timeline or fit with the fact that Demandred tried to get Semirhage back when she was captured.

 

So, Murandy is too weak to be worth taking over and useless, strategically, as a "base of operations." Finally, if all this is not enough, we have the evidence from the rebel AS passing through: would Dem really allow his nobles to fawn over Andoran nobles, or let the Salidar AS pass through his realm w/o a fight, or make bargains with the Band of the red hand?

 

Yes if it helped him. Why would he want to draw extra attention to himself? The other Forsaken tried it the way you suggested, that was clearly a failure. Demandred has done something different.

 

I'm not saying it's Murandy for sure, personally I'd like to see him appear out of Shara with an army of the Red Veiled guys, but the logical side of me says by a process of elimination Murandy makes the most sense.

 

I think not. the only real argument for Murandy is the "process of elimination" argument, but most people who argue this fail to include a full list of options in their analysis, or eliminate some things off the list for the wrong reasons.

 

Such as? Serious question there ^.^

 

I agree with your other eliminations though. But I think only Shara and Murandy are realistic as options.

 

I eliminate Seanchan due to the timeline/consistency issues and due to the fact that working that closely with another Forsaken is just so unlikely.

 

We know the terms of the agreement between Semirhage, Mesaana and Demandred. It was that they would not turn on each other until all the other Forsaken had fallen. Implicit is the acknowledgement that they will eventually turn on each other, if that is the case how closely could they really be working? Seanchan assumes a level of collaboration between Forsaken that is not only unique amongst anything we've seen so far in terms of how the Forsaken operate and relate to each other, but also highly unlikely given the terms of the agreement between the two Forsaken in question.

 

Also, Demandred tried pretty hard to get Semirhage back in the Prologue of TGS, at the same time that he stated his rule was secure. Why would he do that if he had already picked up and taken over as the leader of the Seanchan? It would be far better to have her out of the way at that point if he had indeed taken over Seanchan.

 

There are other, independant reasons to believe Dem is in Seanchan which I will get to shortly, but first I'd like to establish that if Dem is either in Shara or in Seanchan, he is probably in Seanchan. Therefore, we can eliminate Shara off the list.

 

That's poor logic.

 

While I agree it's unlikely, and certainly less likely than other options, it can't be eliminated off the list. It does withstand a process of elimination taken independently.

 

a) It makes sense with how little of him we've seen-if he's on another continent marshaling forces, we would not see much of him in Randland. This is also how his avatar has avoided all screentime through KoD.

 

But we do see him in Randland. Sammael confirms he is doing something 'to the south'. He hasn't been completely inactive there. Also we may have seen other things he's done but not made the association to him. Since we don't know what he's been doing we really can't judge that accurately.

 

This is a circumstantial argument and can also be applied to Shara and Alternate Worlds theories as effectively.

 

His fingerprints are b) "a murderer ruled in Seanchan"-hmmmm...who could this be? How has someone ascended to the throne so quickly when there were likely to be "fifty factions" fighting?

 

Given what happened in Seanchan anyone who came to the Throne would have to be a murderer, or would certainly be viewed as one given what happened to the Empress. The people in Seander don't know to blame one of the Forsaken. In fact I have to ask why would Demandred take over in this way if the leader was certain to be marked out as a murderer? Surely it draws attention, clearly something he doesn't want.

 

c) The Semirhage-Mesaana-Dem connection: remember this alliance? There's likely a reason they were in cahoots. Mesaana was in the WT, Semi was with the Corenne-it makes sense for Dem to be on the mainland. If I was to make a guess, I would say that this triple axis of evil had a grand scheme in mind: break the WT, deliver it into the hands of the Corenne (i.e., get all AS leashed), then marshal the Seanchan forces and use them to attack the light. What better way to strike against the light than to disable the WT, then use the most organized military force on the planet and thousands of channelers to strike at your enemy?

 

This is one of the strongest reasons that it isn't Demandred in Seanchan although I've outlined that above so I won't repeat it again. I do absolutely agree they had something along those lines set up. But I think Semihrage had the role of dealing with all the Seanchan side of it. She wasn't just with the Corenne after all, she took the time to pop back to the mainland and murder the entire Imperial family. She was active with both groups of Seanchan. Demandred and Messana really wanted Semihrage back. They needed her for something they couldn't do themselves. Of course this leaves Demandred's role as unknown, how unusual.

 

d) The Seanchan are the most likely large army to be delivered to the fight by Dem-on that note, if Dem was to level a blow against the light, the Seanchan would be the most likely candidate for him to use-very organized military force, lots of subservient channelers, possible to transport through Traveling. Really, they could show up anywhere. Dem is also likely to have some kind of military force-it's mentioned numerous times that he's a general, and that he's marshaling forces.

 

He states he "gathers for war" so yep, totally agreed that he's marshalling troops. Gathers makes me think he's having to pull them together from somewhere though, not that he's just taken over a large group that already existed.

 

Again this argument is circumstantial and can also be applied to other places.

 

e) The panning camera over the Seanchan mainland-why did ToM open with this? Seems like a waste unless the mainland has some role to play in the last novel. If you ask me, this is a major clue that we're going to see a role for the mainland in the ending.

 

Good question. Honestly have no comeback for this aside from again saying it's circumstantial, time will tell etc.

 

f) lastly, there is Forshadowing in the series of a Dem/Mat showdown- I won't get into this too much, but there have been some clues dropped in the series (I think) of an eventual Dem/Mat showdown. This would jibe nicely with the Seanchan theory.

 

I love the idea of a Dem/Mat showdown and really want to see it. And you're right to an extent. However I'd argue this ignores all of the Demandred being second to LTT stuff we hear. Demandred doesn't think of himself as the parallel to Mat, he thinks of himself relative to Rand.

 

That said I actually think that's a really good idea and probably the most convincing part of your argument for me. I can't get around the time/Semirhage issues though.

[remylevin]

Awesome articulation of a theory :)

 

I feel bad to poke holes in it.

 

Thanks for the feedback. Lets see what I can do about your critiques of my theory.

 

But... Demandred stated his rule was secure in the Prologue of TGS. The first we hear of the Civil War in Seanchan is in KoD, we then hear it was resolved in some way by the start of ToM. There wasn't a whole lot of time in Randland time between those books, literally a few weeks. How did Demandred not only take over but secure his rule in even less time than that? He doesn't just say he's ruling, he says his rule is secure, that takes time. And how could anyone's rule in Seandar be considered secure? Whoever rules there doesn't do so securely, they still have to deal with the Forerunners and Tuon to properly secure their rule, and I'm sure they know it.

 

This bolsters my argument, it doesn't hurt it. How does someone secure their rule over a large empire in a few weeks? Why, by being an immensely powerful and sneaky male channeler in a country that does not have any male channelers or ways to detect them. Exactly like Rahvin did, and Sammael, and Be'lal etc. Besides, how do you know he's only been working for a few weeks? The assassination of the Empress and the imperial family could have been the last step in a long process. Remember, Demandred has been out for a while now-do you really think he was just futzing around in Murandy and messing with Masema during this time? What's been keeping him occupied? Furthermore, to say that one's rule is "secure" is not to necessarily say that the whole continent is subdued, but rather that his rule is not in immediate threat, a more likely target to hit in a few weeks. If you think about it, the timeline fits perfectly with a coup by Demandred, and the more I think about it, the more I'm convinced that the books are hinting at us thematically that that's what's happening-after all, as you said, we see the first mention of the civil war in one book, hear that Dem has succeeded in the next (since TGS comes after KoD), and then get a definite clue as to its progress in the last one.

 

This is a very good point-a forsaken of his stature would not be diverted by such a small, weak country.

 

But he'd be totally fine with playing second to Semirhage in Seanchan?

 

She implied that the Throne was basically hers to give when speaking to Suroth about the death of the Empress, she was clearly the Forsaken in charge there. And she certainly didn't expect Demandred to take it, given that she offered it to Suroth, which seems odd given that they were working together. You could argue that with Semirhage out of the way he opportunistically took it over when he saw the opening, but again that doesn't fit in the timeline or fit with the fact that Demandred tried to get Semirhage back when she was captured.

 

Why would he be playing "second fiddle" to Semi? How is taking over the largest empire on earth and diverting its forces to serve the shadow "playing second fiddle"? Remember, too, that we know from the WOT encyclopedia that the Seanchan empire is roughly the size of the whole of Randland. Given its size, its importance and its potential to deliver chained channelers to the shadow's cause it shouldn't be surprising that more than one FS is assigned there. Furthermore, why do you think Semi was telling Suroth the truth when she offered her the throne? Suroth was clearly devastated by the news of the Empress's death, and was losing her spine as a consequence (imagine if you just found out that the equivalent of God, which you and your entire society had been taught to worship, and on which the very social order rested, had just died.) Semi was clearly manipulating Suroth in order to get her to do what she wanted-hunt Tuon. Her manipulation was very effective. Furthermore, the only way that it makes any sense for Dem to try and free Semi is if she was a key player in one of his plans (we don't exactly see the FS sticking their necks out for one another, now do we?) so the fact that he tried to rescue her bolsters my theory as well.

 

So, Murandy is too weak to be worth taking over and useless, strategically, as a "base of operations." Finally, if all this is not enough, we have the evidence from the rebel AS passing through: would Dem really allow his nobles to fawn over Andoran nobles, or let the Salidar AS pass through his realm w/o a fight, or make bargains with the Band of the red hand?

 

Yes if it helped him. Why would he want to draw extra attention to himself? The other Forsaken tried it the way you suggested, that was clearly a failure. Demandred has done something different.

 

I'm not saying it's Murandy for sure, personally I'd like to see him appear out of Shara with an army of the Red Veiled guys, but the logical side of me says by a process of elimination Murandy makes the most sense.

 

He's not drawing attention to himself in Seanchan-on the contrary, none of the light side characters are there to interfere, as they have been in Randland, and Rand is not exactly hunting him in Seanchan. Furthermore-come on-Murandy? What do they have, like 10,000 soldiers? Dem is one of only five remaining FS, and the shadow side's greatest general. Murandy would just be pathetic, and I doubt the DO would be giving Dem as much praise as he has if he hadn't had substantial accomplishments by now.

 

I think not. the only real argument for Murandy is the "process of elimination" argument, but most people who argue this fail to include a full list of options in their analysis, or eliminate some things off the list for the wrong reasons.

 

Such as? Serious question there ^.^

 

you're right, I should have specified. Most people that argue for Murandy are only eliminating the Randland nations, or are eliminating Seanchan for reasons that I have dealt with in other parts of this post.

 

 

I eliminate Seanchan due to the timeline/consistency issues and due to the fact that working that closely with another Forsaken is just so unlikely.

 

We know the terms of the agreement between Semirhage, Mesaana and Demandred. It was that they would not turn on each other until all the other Forsaken had fallen. Implicit is the acknowledgement that they will eventually turn on each other, if that is the case how closely could they really be working? Seanchan assumes a level of collaboration between Forsaken that is not only unique amongst anything we've seen so far in terms of how the Forsaken operate and relate to each other, but also highly unlikely given the terms of the agreement between the two Forsaken in question.

 

Also, Demandred tried pretty hard to get Semirhage back in the Prologue of TGS, at the same time that he stated his rule was secure. Why would he do that if he had already picked up and taken over as the leader of the Seanchan? It would be far better to have her out of the way at that point if he had indeed taken over Seanchan.

 

We know thy're working together. Think about this: if Dem and Semi are working together, and Semi is working on the Seanchan exclusively (as we have every reason to believe), what exactly are they working on together? In other words, why would they possibly have an alliance if Dem was not in Seanchan? it makes no sense. Furthermore, as I indicated above, it makes sense to split the Seanchan work among at least two FS, as their empire is the size of all of Randland put together. Dem was trying to bring Semi back so she could help him with Tuon and the Corenne, who, without FS influence, are now free (with some persuasion from our favorite trickster, perhaps?) to ally with the light side. The Seanchan are just simply too big of a job for one FS.

 

There are other, independant reasons to believe Dem is in Seanchan which I will get to shortly, but first I'd like to establish that if Dem is either in Shara or in Seanchan, he is probably in Seanchan. Therefore, we can eliminate Shara off the list.

 

That's poor logic.

 

I respectfully disagree. You can eliminate an option within a subgroup, then compare that subgroup to another.

 

a) It makes sense with how little of him we've seen-if he's on another continent marshaling forces, we would not see much of him in Randland. This is also how his avatar has avoided all screentime through KoD.

 

But we do see him in Randland. Sammael confirms he is doing something 'to the south'. He hasn't been completely inactive there. Also we may have seen other things he's done but not made the association to him. Since we don't know what he's been doing we really can't judge that accurately.

 

This is a circumstantial argument and can also be applied to Shara and Alternate Worlds theories as effectively.

 

but we don't see his avatar. where exactly is his avatar marshaling forces, if we haven't seen him on screen at all? Murandy? Come on. Besides all I've said about it already, there's the fact that none of the various spy networks in the series has even heard that a large army is amassing in Murandy. You can't keep a giant army of men secret like that, and if it's trollocs he is amassing, he wouldn't e bringing them from Murandy. as far as Shara and alternate worlds go, I've dealt with these in other locations, and have eliminated them to my satisfaction in other ways.

 

Of course this is circumstantial evidence-it could not possibly be otherwise (I don't think RJ or BS are telling me any time soon, are they?) But it's very strong circumstantial evidence, which in this context should prove quite convincing.

 

 

His fingerprints are b) "a murderer ruled in Seanchan"-hmmmm...who could this be? How has someone ascended to the throne so quickly when there were likely to be "fifty factions" fighting?

 

Given what happened in Seanchan anyone who came to the Throne would have to be a murderer, or would certainly be viewed as one given what happened to the Empress. The people in Seander don't know to blame one of the Forsaken. In fact I have to ask why would Demandred take over in this way if the leader was certain to be marked out as a murderer? Surely it draws attention, clearly something he doesn't want.

 

yeah, but it's a pretty big clue, and these kind of clues don't just get dropped haphazardly in the WOT world.

 

c) The Semirhage-Mesaana-Dem connection: remember this alliance? There's likely a reason they were in cahoots. Mesaana was in the WT, Semi was with the Corenne-it makes sense for Dem to be on the mainland. If I was to make a guess, I would say that this triple axis of evil had a grand scheme in mind: break the WT, deliver it into the hands of the Corenne (i.e., get all AS leashed), then marshal the Seanchan forces and use them to attack the light. What better way to strike against the light than to disable the WT, then use the most organized military force on the planet and thousands of channelers to strike at your enemy?

 

This is one of the strongest reasons that it isn't Demandred in Seanchan although I've outlined that above so I won't repeat it again. I do absolutely agree they had something along those lines set up. But I think Semihrage had the role of dealing with all the Seanchan side of it. She wasn't just with the Corenne after all, she took the time to pop back to the mainland and murder the entire Imperial family. She was active with both groups of Seanchan. Demandred and Messana really wanted Semihrage back. They needed her for something they couldn't do themselves. Of course this leaves Demandred's role as unknown, how unusual.

 

Please see my above arguments. You should also note that it is highly dangerous to rely on the FS's testimony as evidence. The FS LIE. We've seen it time and time again-in fact, RJ made a point of saying numerous times that the FS not just lie to one another, but also to themselves. In this context, it is completely viable that when Semi tells Suroth that she killed the imperial family, it doesn't mean that she actually killed the imperial family (especially since, if Dem did it, Semi would have no motivation to reveal to Suroth that another FS was involved).

 

d) The Seanchan are the most likely large army to be delivered to the fight by Dem-on that note, if Dem was to level a blow against the light, the Seanchan would be the most likely candidate for him to use-very organized military force, lots of subservient channelers, possible to transport through Traveling. Really, they could show up anywhere. Dem is also likely to have some kind of military force-it's mentioned numerous times that he's a general, and that he's marshaling forces.

 

He states he "gathers for war" so yep, totally agreed that he's marshalling troops. Gathers makes me think he's having to pull them together from somewhere though, not that he's just taken over a large group that already existed.

 

Seanchan is an empire the size of a continent. Any marshaling of forces on it would involve pulling forces from all over the place.

 

e) The panning camera over the Seanchan mainland-why did ToM open with this? Seems like a waste unless the mainland has some role to play in the last novel. If you ask me, this is a major clue that we're going to see a role for the mainland in the ending.

 

Good question. Honestly have no comeback for this aside from again saying it's circumstantial, time will tell etc.

 

HUGE clue. Huge. You know where the camera hasn't panned yet? Shara. And Murandy.

 

f) lastly, there is Forshadowing in the series of a Dem/Mat showdown- I won't get into this too much, but there have been some clues dropped in the series (I think) of an eventual Dem/Mat showdown. This would jibe nicely with the Seanchan theory.

 

I love the idea of a Dem/Mat showdown and really want to see it. And you're right to an extent. However I'd argue this ignores all of the Demandred being second to LTT stuff we hear. Demandred doesn't think of himself as the parallel to Mat, he thinks of himself relative to Rand.

 

That said I actually think that's a really good idea and probably the most convincing part of your argument for me. I can't get around the time/Semirhage issues though.

 

Dem is second to LTT/Rand, not his opposite on the darkside. Rand's nemesis/darkside opposite is Moridin, not Dem-he's fought him three times, they have similar roles, they're connected in numerous ways, and they're each the champion of the light and dark, respectively. Dem is billed as the shadow's greatest general. you know who's the light's greatest general, and second only to Rand? I'll give you three guesses, but you'll only need one...

 

Thanks for the great discussion! Your comments really helped me articulate my theory better.

[Durinax]

he's in murandy. he is subtly turnign people to the shadow by not shielding his dreams, and bringing in armies of shadowspawn. He also refused to go to the FoM for fear he would not be able to control himself from lashing out at LT, and thus securing his demise by virtue of large amounts of channellers which he has to suspect are there

[gary0044187]

Dem is second to LTT/Rand, not his opposite on the darkside. Rand's nemesis/darkside opposite is Moridin, not Dem-he's fought him three times, they have similar roles, they're connected in numerous ways, and they're each the champion of the light and dark, respectively. Dem is billed as the shadow's greatest general. you know who's the light's greatest general, and second only to Rand? I'll give you three guesses, but you'll only need one...

disagree strongly here. I would be willing to say that at this point the greatest general in randland is the one you are referring to, not rand. This is why, Both Dem and LTT had to discover war. The two of them fought each other and other fledgling generals, my guess is that their military science is really weak. (btw, this discussion I believe explains why the utopia of the AoL ended so poorly) IMHO, any modern (in randland) great captain (possibly even high ranking EVA generals and Aiel clan chieftains too) would be better than any AoL general because they have 3000 years of war schooling to learn from. Furthermore, with modern weapons, the 3rd age generals have an advantage as well. Dem and LTT are used to using AoL armies armed with shocklances, etc. Their biggest advantage is 100 years of war planning and strategy. They each have as much (or more) war experience as any two great captains have put together, except for one guy, who remembers battles over the course of 1000 years, remembers being a guy who wrote a book on war, and has yet to actually be called a great captain.

 

edit- btw, I am in the Seandar/Shara camp myself. Dude is gathering armies from around the globe to use against LTT. I would like to see him as the power behind Taim, but I believe Taim is Moridin's pawn. also disagree with the marandy camp because of how interested that king was in the book Talmanes showed him. IMHO, Dem would not be interested in a book on war, because he considers himself the best.

[Thorum]

I don't know how you can all so readilly ignore Jordan's words (for those suggesting Shara):

 

8 November 2010 twitter by Brandon: @tritlo RJ said there would be no major action in Shara. He was uncertain on Madmen. #portalstone

 

It's somewhere in his blog. But since the search doesn't work, I don't find it...

But please stop saying it's Shara. RJ said it is NOT POSSIBLE. Like Taim is not Demandred. Just as impossible.

[clu7ch]

Terez might pop out of nowhere to slam me on this again, but Paitar is Demandred, I'm officially calling it. I'll even throw it in my signature. It's him. For sure. Just go read that chapter with the borderlanders again. Totally him.

 

I realize that Paitar is an existing anomaly then, because he was seen before we should have seen him according to Camp Jordan, but people make mistakes.

[DemandredFO]

Demandred may not be in Murandy but it doesn't mean he's not doing something there. I haven't seen a map but I believe Murandy is kind of bordered by a few important nations. I'm assuming there's at least one portal stone or waygate there, so armies of Shadowspawn could be dispersed from there.

[Thorum]

- People make mistakes. RJ doesn't make the same mistake repeatedly. He RAFOed if he wasn't 1000% sure

 

- There's a map on top of this page.

[mossman87]

Just because we won't be in Shara doesn't mean we won't see them in the Last Battle. Also any Great General from 3000 years ago would understand the ways of war would be different and want to study up on them, escpecially with all the other Forsaken dying because they thought they knew everything.

[remylevin]

Demandred may not be in Murandy but it doesn't mean he's not doing something there.

 

No arguments there. All I'm saying is that it's too minor to be his main focus.

 

I haven't seen a map but I believe Murandy is kind of bordered by a few important nations. I'm assuming there's at least one portal stone or waygate there, so armies of Shadowspawn could be dispersed from there.

 

In a world of Traveling and waygates, a "central location" is, to a large degree, irrelevant. The general's in this war won't be marching their troop from one location to the next, and so amassing them in a country that is relatively close to others (though still weeks away for a large army) would be irrelevant.

[remylevin]

Dem is second to LTT/Rand, not his opposite on the darkside. Rand's nemesis/darkside opposite is Moridin, not Dem-he's fought him three times, they have similar roles, they're connected in numerous ways, and they're each the champion of the light and dark, respectively. Dem is billed as the shadow's greatest general. you know who's the light's greatest general, and second only to Rand? I'll give you three guesses, but you'll only need one...

disagree strongly here. I would be willing to say that at this point the greatest general in randland is the one you are referring to, not rand. This is why, Both Dem and LTT had to discover war. The two of them fought each other and other fledgling generals, my guess is that their military science is really weak. (btw, this discussion I believe explains why the utopia of the AoL ended so poorly) IMHO, any modern (in randland) great captain (possibly even high ranking EVA generals and Aiel clan chieftains too) would be better than any AoL general because they have 3000 years of war schooling to learn from. Furthermore, with modern weapons, the 3rd age generals have an advantage as well. Dem and LTT are used to using AoL armies armed with shocklances, etc. Their biggest advantage is 100 years of war planning and strategy. They each have as much (or more) war experience as any two great captains have put together, except for one guy, who remembers battles over the course of 1000 years, remembers being a guy who wrote a book on war, and has yet to actually be called a great captain.

 

edit- btw, I am in the Seandar/Shara camp myself. Dude is gathering armies from around the globe to use against LTT. I would like to see him as the power behind Taim, but I believe Taim is Moridin's pawn. also disagree with the marandy camp because of how interested that king was in the book Talmanes showed him. IMHO, Dem would not be interested in a book on war, because he considers himself the best.

 

The books have been building Mat up as the general, and Rand up as the savior. A parallel has been happening on the shadow side-Dem is the general, Moridin is the Nae'blis. Besides, it's Ishi that LTT has had the long relationship with-remember their souls being tied together, the first scene in the EotW, their connection through the crossing streams, their meetings in T'A'R, yada yada yada. None of this buildup and connection has occurred b/w Rand and Dem. So Rand's parallel in the shadow is Moridin, not Dem.

 

Now, whether Mat is destined to defeat Dem is debatable, but there are some clues-the whole general thingy; the Seanchan connection (if you believe my theory); the fact that Mat has a habit of killing big bad guys that are trying to get to Rand (remember Couladin?); a few others. We'll just have to wait for aMoL to see if I'm right about this.

[Elend]

Shadowspawn can't pass through Gateways, only the Ways. That makes location a bit more important. We also don't know how easy it is to move armies through the Ways these days; for certain reasons it may not be the best method.

[remylevin]

Shadowspawn can't pass through Gateways, only the Ways. That makes location a bit more important. We also don't know how easy it is to move armies through the Ways these days; for certain reasons it may not be the best method.

my bad-said gateways, meant the Ways.

[Mats Spare Hat]

You know what'd be totally whacky, is if he turns out to have been posing as Beslan. End's up as High Blood after some in-character gamesmanship, set something in motion to whack ole Tuon, take over Seanchan this side of the ocean after having instigated collapse of the homeland across the ocean, while buddy-buddy Semi's in on the scheme working angles while on the boat?

 

...I did say totally whacky

 

It'll be fun to find out where/what he's been up to the whole time...I think I'd enjoy a reveal amongst established plot elements, even if it's Murandy, rather than an out of nowhere from a place that's barely touched on, like Shara.

[Kahlika]

Terez might pop out of nowhere to slam me on this again, but Paitar is Demandred, I'm officially calling it. I'll even throw it in my signature. It's him. For sure. Just go read that chapter with the borderlanders again. Totally him.

 

I realize that Paitar is an existing anomaly then, because he was seen before we should have seen him according to Camp Jordan, but people make mistakes.

 

Paitar cannot be Demandred.

 

RJ confirmed no alter ego of Demandred's had been seen 'on camera' as of KoD. We saw Paitar on camera with the Borderlanders before that in TPoD, Prologue, WH Ch. 9 and WH Ch. 27.

 

That's a relatively large number of mistakes to make on a relatively big fan issue.

 

Shadowspawn can't pass through Gateways, only the Ways. That makes location a bit more important. We also don't know how easy it is to move armies through the Ways these days; for certain reasons it may not be the best method.

 

They can be transported via Portal Stones.

[Zefram]

 

Awesome articulation of a theory :)

 

I feel bad to poke holes in it.

 

But... Demandred stated his rule was secure in the Prologue of TGS. The first we hear of the Civil War in Seanchan is in KoD, we then hear it was resolved in some way by the start of ToM. There wasn't a whole lot of time in Randland time between those books, literally a few weeks. How did Demandred not only take over but secure his rule in even less time than that? He doesn't just say he's ruling, he says his rule is secure, that takes time. And how could anyone's rule in Seandar be considered secure? Whoever rules there doesn't do so securely, they still have to deal with the Forerunners and Tuon to properly secure their rule, and I'm sure they know it.

 

 

I am not sure that Seanchan Civil War is resolved in any way at beginning of ToM, maybe I am reading it wrong but the beginning - about the wind clearly states that Seanchan is burning smoldering, that it looks like the whole continent is filled with smoke from all burnings, battles and pogroms, while murderer sits on the throne. It kind of looks while someone has gotten access to throne but the fighting is still going on. The situation is not resolved at all, there is still fighting on the streets going on. (and thats not mentioning that Fortuona didn't return as of yet and thats a whole new level of fighting to be yet seen)

[David Selig]

I don't know how you can all so readilly ignore Jordan's words (for those suggesting Shara):

 

8 November 2010 twitter by Brandon: @tritlo RJ said there would be no major action in Shara. He was uncertain on Madmen. #portalstone

 

It's somewhere in his blog. But since the search doesn't work, I don't find it...

But please stop saying it's Shara. RJ said it is NOT POSSIBLE. Like Taim is not Demandred. Just as impossible.

This doesn't prove that Demandred hasn't been in Shara. He may've been collecting an army offscreen with the goal to bring it to the Westlands for the Last battle. It could happen without showing any scenes taking place in Shara.

[Kahlika]

Thanks for the reply :)

 

I will admit you have me not as totally sure as I was that it could be Seanchan, but for the sake of drawing that out further I'll elaborate a bit too. Please excuse any clumsy editing, I've moved some bits around so I don't end up excessively going over the same things. I hope it still makes sense ^.^

 

This bolsters my argument, it doesn't hurt it. How does someone secure their rule over a large empire in a few weeks? Why, by being an immensely powerful and sneaky male channeler in a country that does not have any male channelers or ways to detect them. Exactly like Rahvin did, and Sammael, and Be'lal etc.

 

Whoever took over in Seanchan doesn't have a secure rule though, the Correne and the rightful Empress are still out there and needing to be dealt with.

 

And as pointed out above there's some suggestion that things aren't resolved and secure even in Seander. I'll try to dig up the quote later.

 

Besides, how do you know he's only been working for a few weeks? The assassination of the Empress and the imperial family could have been the last step in a long process.

 

Semirhage assassinated the Empress etc, it was part of a larger plan for sure, but Demandred does not seem to have been involved in that aspect of it at all, and Semirhage showed no awareness of Demandred aspiring to that Throne as she tried to get Suroth to take it. Surely she would have known if he had intentions regarding Seanchan, but she shows no awareness of it at all in her actions. I'll address that in more depth further down.

 

Why would he be playing "second fiddle" to Semi? How is taking over the largest empire on earth and diverting its forces to serve the shadow "playing second fiddle"?

 

Because Semirhage was in charge in Seanchan. Demandred and Messana knew she was there and knew what she was doing. They needed her to do something they couldn't do themselves so they tried to rescue her. Semirhage herself considered the Throne to be hers to give, another indication that she at least thought she was making the calls in Seanchan. If Demandred was there doing something it was done in secret, without her knowledge, and thus would have required him to defer to her on matters in Seanchan.

 

Just to touch on your point about the Forsaken lying that you made. LTT remembers Semirhage well and comments on her to Rand, saying:

 

Rand tried not to think too hard about the things Semirhage had said on the day when Rand had lost his hand. She was one of the Forsaken; she would say anything if she thought it would bring her target pain.

She tortured an entire city to prove herself, Lews Therin whispered. She has killed a thousand men a thousand different ways to see how their screams would differ from one another. But she rarely lies. Rarely.[tGS; 1, Tears From Steel]

 

She's was a sadist and "twisted to the core" but she's not a liar for the sake of lying. Could this be one of the rare times she lies? Possibly, but why lie there? There was no need to lie, she could have just ordered Suroth to kill Tuon if that was all she wanted. Suroth would have tried to do it, no Darkfriend disobeys a direct order from one of the Forsaken. So she was aiming for something more, she was aiming to set up a Darkfriend puppet as Empress. Why would she do that if she knew Demandred was going to take the Throne? She wouldn't set up some puppet in competition with Demandred, they wouldn't stand a chance and she'd know it. She really didn't know he was there if he was.

 

And I just can't buy that Demandred was there and managed to keep it a secret from Semirhage. The were allied, they did seem to know where the others were working, Demandred and Messana clearly know what Semihrage was up to when they meet with Moridin. Semirhage knew where Messana was. It's stretching to think Demandred has managed to hold a fragile alliance together whilst withholding what he's doing, at least to some extent or the extent it impacts on their collective plans.

 

So that leaves Demandred taking over after Semirhage was out of the picture. That would be plausible, except that he already had a secure rule at the time that he tried to get Semirhage freed, so he secured his rule before he knew she was out of the picture. Again something highly unlikely for him to do, the forsaken do not step on each other's toes in that manner. And him not doing it is supported by his actions in trying to get Semirhage back. There's no reason at all for him to try and get her back if he can do the job she was assigned to doing himself.

 

Furthermore, the only way that it makes any sense for Dem to try and free Semi is if she was a key player in one of his plans (we don't exactly see the FS sticking their necks out for one another, now do we?).

 

Absolutely agreed. But why on earth would he need Semirhage if he'd taken over her area and could do what she was already doing in Seanchan? Demandred as Emperor could have done anything Semirhage could have done and more.

 

We know thy're working together. Think about this: if Dem and Semi are working together, and Semi is working on the Seanchan exclusively (as we have every reason to believe), what exactly are they working on together? In other words, why would they possibly have an alliance if Dem was not in Seanchan? it makes no sense.

 

Their alliance dated back to the AoL, they worked together then too. Their similar interests/areas more likely arose out of having the common alliance and plotting together, rather than the alliance arising out of the similar interests. Given this why put two in Seanchan when one will do? See below for a bit more discussion on that.

 

Ok I could get into speculation about what their mutual plan is, but it's just pointless speculation and doesn't really get us anywhere unless I take a lot more space and do a lot more writing on it than I can here. So I'll just say it is possible to construct other plausibe theories of what they are doing, they have all had some degree of involvement with the channelers and anti-channelers of the world for instance.

 

Remember, too, that we know from the WOT encyclopedia that the Seanchan empire is roughly the size of the whole of Randland. Given its size, its importance and its potential to deliver chained channelers to the shadow's cause it shouldn't be surprising that more than one FS is assigned there.

 

But it is all held together through once central power structure. Randland has lots of smaller powers, Seanchan has one big one, Randland can't be totally influenced by taking over one government, Seanchan can. Multiple people each controlling a different power structure makes sense for Randland, it isn't needed in Seanchan because there is only one power structure. As discussed above that would require one to defer to the other in some way, I'll also add it would require a lot of trust, and we know Demandred and Semirhage do not trust each other by the terms of their alliance.

 

Remember, Demandred has been out for a while now-do you really think he was just futzing around in Murandy and messing with Masema during this time? What's been keeping him occupied?

...

Murandy would just be pathetic, and I doubt the DO would be giving Dem as much praise as he has if he hadn't had substantial accomplishments by now.

 

I think people, me included, want to see all this build up be something awesome and thus can't imagine he's really just been futzing around in Murandy because it's just so damn boring. But honestly futzing around pretty much fits at this point, a Forsaken is a raging success if they just can just stay uncaptured, not get murdered by Graendal and manage to avoid teaching the Light side a whole bunch of AoL secrets. Demandred doesn't exactly have a high bar to reach. and the fact that he has managed to not be captured, killed etc suggests he hasn't really stuck his neck out.

 

He states his rule is secure, we know he rules somewhere, but Sammael also states that he likes to use proxies. That implies he's doing more than one thing. So he's ruling somewhere and also involved in other things.

 

There are other, independant reasons to believe Dem is in Seanchan which I will get to shortly, but first I'd like to establish that if Dem is either in Shara or in Seanchan, he is probably in Seanchan. Therefore, we can eliminate Shara off the list.

 

That's poor logic.

 

I respectfully disagree. You can eliminate an option within a subgroup, then compare that subgroup to another.

 

You clearly can, as you did, but it's not the best method to apply with a process of elimination imo, which is what I was getting at there. A process of elimination judges each independently against fixed criteria and eliminates whatever (or whichever in this case) doesn't meet the criteria. What remains past the elimination meets the criteria and should then be weighed relative to what else remains in terms of relative strength. To eliminate based on relative strength rather than on the individual merits/ability to meet criteria skips a step and introduces and applies additional subjectivity to the process at an earlier stage for one of the options than it does for the others, which isn't particularly balanced.

 

HUGE clue. Huge. You know where the camera hasn't panned yet? Shara. And Murandy.

 

Have you considered the possibility that there's some setting up being done for the Outrigger novels? Or even that it's just setting things up for Mat and Tuon more generally. The reference to the Murderer, the entry for Towers of Midnight in the Glossary point to Tuon and Mat going back to Seanchan and sorting things out and that would account for the attention being given in the pan over etc. I realise this ties in to your point about Mat being the counter to Demandred, and your argument effectively kills both those birds with one stone, but it's possible that all the attention is just tied to the Mat/Tuon plot and not the Demandred plot, or the Mat/Demandred plot.

[gary0044187]

Just because we won't be in Shara doesn't mean we won't see them in the Last Battle. Also any Great General from 3000 years ago would understand the ways of war would be different and want to study up on them, escpecially with all the other Forsaken dying because they thought they knew everything.

Good point, I knew it was a weak argument to begin with.

 

Herid, I very much agree with you on the rand/ishy mat/dam deal, I even expect mat/dem to run into each other at some point and dem to get a nasty surprise when mat is not effected by the OP.

[Yehosh]

Lots of reasons for it to be Murandy. Most of which have already been mentioned but I will summarize:

 

1) We first see Demandred getting the "Let the LOC rule" orders, that same book we start hearing rumors of dragonsword stirring up things in Murandy. Same book, we also see Sammael mention to Graendal that the dragonsworn activity to the south of Arad Doman has Demandred's mark all over them.

 

2) We haven't seen any forsaken get involved or attach themselves to Murandy (unlike Illian, Arad Doman, Caemlyn, Tear, Altara, Tarabon - Moggy, Waste - Asmo, Seanchan, Shara - Graendal, Salidar). Only other nations not attached are the borderlands.

 

3) Out of Semi and Mesaana's way, we know he wouldn't operate near or with them, it'd be pointless

 

4) Graendal thinks that if Demandred was with the borderlands, she would have known, and to be honest, I believe her. While she screwed up in TOM, she is a pretty clever forsaken.

 

5) No response to Egwene's invite. I wonder why.

 

6) Demandred reports that his rule is secure, implying that up until recently it hasn't been. Only place that recently came under control in TGS is Murandy as far as I know.

 

7) Roedran pays the Band of the Red Hand a years salary. A year's worth? someone has some pretty sweet resources at their disposal.

 

8) Roedran is very impressed with Fog and Steel by Madoc Comadrin. This a post-breaking book on war tactics. Aside from Mat and the 5 great captains, who do you think would find this book interesting? maybe the shadow's great field strategist or a small time king who has already secured his rule? IMO this is a huge clue and exactly something RJ would drop to steer us in the right direction.

 

9) Reene Harfor identifies a spy in the Royal Palace who reports to King Roedran. (COT). Ok, this doesn't mean he is Demandred, but why would someone worrying about their own rule be busy with spies in Caemlyn? it's a loose connection, but maybe relevant.

 

10) Not really a clue, but I wonder if Talmane's pipe, the gift from Roedran is some kind of terangreal or something to help him spy on Mat. Assuming he is Demandred, why give Talmane's a pipe?

 

None of these clues are enough on their own, but together we get a nice picture. While Shara, Borderlands and Seanchan are still possible, there is certainly more evidence for Murandy. As for the Black Tower, Moridin and Taim are in charge over there. The Dreakspike comment from Moridin pretty much assures us that Moridin is calling the shots there which doesn't surprise me as it is probably the shadow's strogest focus of power now that the black ajah is toast.

[Durinax]

for #10 it could be a finder so that he may find and damage the band

[remylevin]

Once again, into the fray...

 

Thanks for the reply :)

 

I will admit you have me not as totally sure as I was that it could be Seanchan

 

YES!!! And I think you meant "couldn't"

 

This bolsters my argument, it doesn't hurt it. How does someone secure their rule over a large empire in a few weeks? Why, by being an immensely powerful and sneaky male channeler in a country that does not have any male channelers or ways to detect them. Exactly like Rahvin did, and Sammael, and Be'lal etc.

 

Whoever took over in Seanchan doesn't have a secure rule though, the Correne and the rightful Empress are still out there and needing to be dealt with.

 

And as pointed out above there's some suggestion that things aren't resolved and secure even in Seander.

 

Fine. But regardless, your original argument was that Dem couldn't have secured his rule in so short a time. You seem to agree with me now, so we can toss that objection to my theory into the blackness of a skimming gateway.

 

Besides, how do you know he's only been working for a few weeks? The assassination of the Empress and the imperial family could have been the last step in a long process.

 

Semirhage assassinated the Empress etc, it was part of a larger plan for sure, but Demandred does not seem to have been involved in that aspect of it at all, and Semirhage showed no awareness of Demandred aspiring to that Throne as she tried to get Suroth to take it. Surely she would have known if he had intentions regarding Seanchan, but she shows no awareness of it at all in her actions. I'll address that in more depth further down.

 

If you reread the original scene, this is not the conclusion you'll come to. First, the scene is written from Suroth's POV. In other words, we don't see Semi think that she killed the empress, we see her tell Suroth that the Empress is dead. As I mentioned before, the FS LIE. But even if that doesn't convince you, consider this: Semi never says that she killed the imperial family. Never. Here is the relevant passage:

 

"But of no account. The Empress Radhanan is dead. Remarkable how much blood there is in a human body." [Kod, 46]

 

"I see I didn't make myself clear. Radhanan is dead, and her daughters, and her sons, and half the imperial court as well." [KoD 47]

 

Nowhere in the scene does Semi say she killed them-she just implies it. Furthermore, it is Suroth who jumps to the conclusion that Semi did it:

 

"Suroth gaped at the other woman in spite of herself. The Empire...destroyed? Semirhage had killed the...?" [KoD 47]

 

As far as Dem's involvement, we do have at least one clue:

 

"[semi] laughed again, and said something strange. 'Let the lord of chaos rule.'" [KoD 47]

 

Not conclusive, but it also doesn't preclude his involvement as you are suggesting.

 

Why would he be playing "second fiddle" to Semi? How is taking over the largest empire on earth and diverting its forces to serve the shadow "playing second fiddle"?

 

Because Semirhage was in charge in Seanchan. Demandred and Messana knew she was there and knew what she was doing.

 

Where are you getting this from? Semi has been with Tuon, not "in charge" in Seanchan as far as we know. You're making assumptions here.

 

Semirhage herself considered the Throne to be hers to give, another indication that she at least thought she was making the calls in Seanchan.

 

Read my comments above. It is just as likely that Semi was manipulating Suroth with false promises of grandeur as it is that she considered the throne hers to give. More likely, I would say.

 

Could this be one of the rare times she lies? Possibly, but why lie there? There was no need to lie, she could have just ordered Suroth to kill Tuon if that was all she wanted. Suroth would have tried to do it, no Darkfriend disobeys a direct order from one of the Forsaken.

 

DFs are people too (aren't you feeling all mushy inside for them now?), they're not machines. Semi is simply using the best tool available to get Suroth to do what she wants-manipulation. If she usede force, she would have to constantly supervise Suroth to make sure she's doing what she wants. By appealing to Suroth's greed, she gets a 110% effort on her part. This will ring true to anyone who's ever managed others.

 

And I just can't buy that Demandred was there and managed to keep it a secret from Semirhage. The were allied, they did seem to know where the others were working, Demandred and Messana clearly know what Semihrage was up to when they meet with Moridin. Semirhage knew where Messana was. It's stretching to think Demandred has managed to hold a fragile alliance together whilst withholding what he's doing, at least to some extent or the extent it impacts on their collective plans.

 

you don't know he was keeping his presence secret-all you know is that semi didn't tell Suroth about him. And why should she? since when do the FS share all their plans and knowledge with their minions. You're falling into the classic trap of taking as truth everything that characters with limited knowledge believe to be true. This is especially dangerous with WOT.

 

Furthermore, the only way that it makes any sense for Dem to try and free Semi is if she was a key player in one of his plans (we don't exactly see the FS sticking their necks out for one another, now do we?).

 

Absolutely agreed. But why on earth would he need Semirhage if he'd taken over her area and could do what she was already doing in Seanchan?

 

to keep track of the Corenne, the massive military force that is wreaking havoc in Randland, and to maintain control of its stubborn little leader. Again, Seanchan is a big enough prize for two FS to share.

 

We know thy're working together. Think about this: if Dem and Semi are working together, and Semi is working on the Seanchan exclusively (as we have every reason to believe), what exactly are they working on together? In other words, why would they possibly have an alliance if Dem was not in Seanchan? it makes no sense.

 

Their alliance dated back to the AoL, they worked together then too. Their similar interests/areas more likely arose out of having the common alliance and plotting together, rather than the alliance arising out of the similar interests.

 

Now you're just making presumptions. Besides, why mention the alliance in the first place if it is to play no role? RJ didn't write like this-all these clues mean something.

 

Remember, too, that we know from the WOT encyclopedia that the Seanchan empire is roughly the size of the whole of Randland. Given its size, its importance and its potential to deliver chained channelers to the shadow's cause it shouldn't be surprising that more than one FS is assigned there.

 

But it is all held together through once central power structure. Randland has lots of smaller powers, Seanchan has one big one, Randland can't be totally influenced by taking over one government, Seanchan can. Multiple people each controlling a different power structure makes sense for Randland, it isn't needed in Seanchan because there is only one power structure. As discussed above that would require one to defer to the other in some way, I'll also add it would require a lot of trust, and we know Demandred and Semirhage do not trust each other by the terms of their alliance.

 

Not true. Look at the deal Tuon strikes with Beslan. The Empress functions as an overlord of lots of administrative units controlled by lesser kings-she is not the direct, immediate ruler of all the areas in the empire. Indeed, such a unified arrangement is not realistic in a world without near-instantaneous travel and communication, which is hy gigantic empires in our world have generally crumbled fairly quickly historically.

 

He states his rule is secure, we know he rules somewhere, but Sammael also states that he likes to use proxies. That implies he's doing more than one thing. So he's ruling somewhere and also involved in other things.

 

Fine. So he's ruling Seanchan and doing a lot of other bad things.

 

HUGE clue. Huge. You know where the camera hasn't panned yet? Shara. And Murandy.

 

Have you considered the possibility that there's some setting up being done for the Outrigger novels? Or even that it's just setting things up for Mat and Tuon more generally. The reference to the Murderer, the entry for Towers of Midnight in the Glossary point to Tuon and Mat going back to Seanchan and sorting things out and that would account for the attention being given in the pan over etc. I realise this ties in to your point about Mat being the counter to Demandred, and your argument effectively kills both those birds with one stone, but it's possible that all the attention is just tied to the Mat/Tuon plot and not the Demandred plot, or the Mat/Demandred plot.

 

I've considered it, and I've dismissed it. I don't think BS would do this. He's stated multiple times that he does not think the outriggers should be written and has advised Harriet to this effect.

 

Thanks again for the great feedback!

[remylevin]

Interesting. Well, maybe he is in Murandy too (I said maybe ) . He's most def in Seanchan, though.

 

1) We first see Demandred getting the "Let the LOC rule" orders, that same book we start hearing rumors of dragonsword stirring up things in Murandy. Same book, we also see Sammael mention to Graendal that the dragonsworn activity to the south of Arad Doman has Demandred's mark all over them.

 

2) We haven't seen any forsaken get involved or attach themselves to Murandy (unlike Illian, Arad Doman, Caemlyn, Tear, Altara, Tarabon - Moggy, Waste - Asmo, Seanchan, Shara - Graendal, Salidar). Only other nations not attached are the borderlands.

 

...

 

5) No response to Egwene's invite. I wonder why.

 

I find these three reasons to be the most convincing. Did not remember the timing thing with the Dragonsworn. The other ones, though, don't hold much water. for instance:

 

9) Reene Harfor identifies a spy in the Royal Palace who reports to King Roedran. (COT). Ok, this doesn't mean he is Demandred, but why would someone worrying about their own rule be busy with spies in Caemlyn? it's a loose connection, but maybe relevant.

 

Why would a ruler spy on his neighbors? Might as well ask why a bear would sh*t in the woods...

 

While Shara, Borderlands and Seanchan are still possible, there is certainly more evidence for Murandy.

 

Absolutely not-there's a lot more evidence for Seanchan than Murandy. Also, you've presented evidence that implies that Murandy is one of Dem's interests, not his main interest, which makes sense given the size of the country.

[moratcorlm]

Not true. Look at the deal Tuon strikes with Beslan. The Empress functions as an overlord of lots of administrative units controlled by lesser kings-she is not the direct, immediate ruler of all the areas in the empire. Indeed, such a unified arrangement is not realistic in a world without near-instantaneous travel and communication, which is hy gigantic empires in our world have generally crumbled fairly quickly historically.

Perhaps that was how it developed originally, but it's clear that by this time the Seanchan empire is an absolute monarchy whose immediate subordinates are High Lords and Ladies essentially serving at the whim of the Crystal Throne. There does not seem to be much at all feudal about the arrangement; power is highly centralized in Seanchan. It's also clear that you're right about that kind of centralization not being highly stable with this level of technology, as the talk of near-constant rebellion shows us. But with the Empress holding the loyalty of (at least most of) the standing army and the lion's share of damane any rebellion would be crushed in the end.

 

But lesser kings? That's a sop to the colonized here on this side of the ocean; there's no evidence that it exists in Seanchan proper.