Discuss the Epiclogue

[decrepid dragon]

Furyk Kadere is a pretty awesome character, he is going to do something cool during TG, he has to.

[decrepid dragon]

He does need to grow up and realize life is about more than just him.

 

The Wheel has enough to do without having to constantly maneuver him into doing the right thing. It would be enormously refreshing if he'd just grow up and choose to do that himself.

If he did just somehow know whatever was required it would save time, but then it would be like we have a light-Rand clone running around without the ability to channel. Just like if Perrin suddenly became more balanced and didn't resist change in any form. Humour is more important than character development anyway.

[Bob T Dwarf]

Would The Wheel go to that much trouble if that letter wasn't freaking vital beyond anything else?

 

I'd just like to point out, if it hasn't been already, that should the Pattern have intended for Mat to open the letter on time then he would have done so.

 

As a taveren, his actions are more closely aligned to the Patern's intent.

 

That's a little too much, "It's Allah's will, I'm not responsible." for me.

 

I just want Mat to take responsibility for his own actions. To quit being dragged kicking and screaming to play his part.

 

He can still be funny. He'd even be more amusing if he wasn't so tiresome.

[Sharaman]

C'mon BTD, WoTland is all about being completely deterministic only the people in it don't realise it.

The Wheel thingummies as the Wheel ummagammas while being kinky enough to offer the souls it spits out an illusion of free will because it loves watching them squirm and try to avoid their ordained fates.

[Bob T Dwarf]

C'mon BTD, WoTland is all about being completely deterministic only the people in it don't realise it.

The Wheel thingummies as the Wheel ummagammas while being kinky enough to offer the souls it spits out an illusion of free will because it loves watching them squirm and try to avoid their ordained fates.

 

That's certainly how the denizens of WoTland think. But then, as the books make clear, the people of WoTland think lots of silly things.

 

Towers of Midnight gives us a different look at their reality. Belief and order give strength. It is possible to impose your will, your belief, upon reality.

 

Peter Pan and the Lost Boys can grow up if they really want to. Or, they can stay children doing only what Nanny ( the Wheel ) allows.

 

It's their choice.

[Mr Ares]

what I don't get is....

 

what happened to machin shin? I mean - the waygate is IN Caemlyn - there's no way that a huge force of trollocs could hide in the city, so they must be hiding in the ways. Why didn't evil-ripping-wind destroy them? Fain isn't there to stop it...

Well, Machin Shin has been absent before - witness the 100,000 Trollocs who attacked Rand at Lord Algarin's manor. We don't know where it is, nor the full extent of its changes since contact with Fain, but something has certainly changed.

 

You go around letting random people, who you can´t trust fully, tell you what you do? No objections, no arguments, no discussion, just do what a letter tells you to.

 

This was Verins screwup, not Mats.

No. It was Mat's failure to think and to trust. Verin expended considerable effort finding him. Would she do that if it wasn't vital? In fact The Wheel made it impossible for her to do anything else. Would The Wheel go to that much trouble if that letter wasn't freaking vital beyond anything else?

 

Mat's problem is that he's still an entirely self-centered child. He thinks everything is about him. Verin's need for him to do something had to be because she just wanted to mess with him. Aes Sedai in general and Verin in particular only exist to make his life miserable. etc. etc. ad nauseum.

 

Once again and for the 47th time, Mat wins the Prat of the Week Award.

You know, if I find us too much in agreement, I get worried - there is no surer sign of Tarmon Gai'don's imminence. On this matter, I can't say I agree with you wholeheartedly, but I think you do have a point. I'd say there was fault on both sides. It should have been clear to Mat that Verin thought this was important, and she did tell him that she doubted he would find her instructions harsh. Of course, she did underestimate his character somewhat - admittedly understandable, as she hasn't spent any time with him since TDR. Had he known what she wanted, he would have done it. It was only that he was being asked to sign a blank check that put him off - he didn't want to agree with something if he didn't know what he was agreeing to. Personally, I would have taken the easy route of reading the letter, and then deciding what to do about it - Mat had this option open to him but refused to take it. Mat's stupid stubbornness, and Verin's underestimating his willingness to help, and his desire to be free of AS entanglements both played a part in this disaster. Both made mistakes.

 

Then we see he doesn't hero worship Mat and doesn't seem to even like him all that much aside from what Mat could teach him.

 

Er, no.

 

Olver was Mat's personal messenger, all official and everything. It was no wonder Mat sometimes forgot things, but it was Olver's job to take care of him. Now that Lopin was gone, Mat would need extra taking care of. It was one of the reasons Olver stayed with the Band. He was not sure what Mat would do without him.

 

Kid's a lot like Mat: he cares quite a bit about quite a lot of people and things, but he rationalizes it to himself to feel more like he has some control over his life. Which is only to be expected, given what happened to him and who he's really been emulating all along.

Indeed. This Olver=Sociopath theory is essentially just one interpretation of the evidence presented, with little of any substance to back it up, and indications that it is incorrect. I can't say I'm convinced.

 

Prat of the Week. One more win and he gets to retire the trophy

I bet you really love Perrin and/or Verin, don't you?

They didn't just heal him, they also attempted to keep him prisoner in the Tower withoutany proper cause.

 

Why so much hate?

 

Not hate. Just fatigue with his lack of development. His childish behaviour stopped being cute or funny 9-10 books ago.

 

Truthfully, Perrin is dead to me. His lack of any real morality makes him anathema.

 

Verin was OK. She made the best lemonade she could with the lemons she had.

 

Now, Cadsuane, well let me just say, DIE, Cadsuane, DIE!

Now this eases the worry. We still have some time before TG.

[Bob T Dwarf]

Now this eases the worry. We still have some time before TG.

 

Probably not.

 

When we find ourselves agreeing with each other - even a little - it is truly the end of days.

 

Time to break out the good stuff and toast your loved ones, 'cause it aint gonna be long now.

[Owayn The Traveller]

I thought there was a glimmer of Mat changing his views on Aes Sedai in the book. When he was thinking about either Teslyn or Joline, whichever one isn't the pretty one. A small bit of melting of his resolve there, a tiny bit.

I pretty sure I'm thinking of Teslyn, so its probably Joline I am really thinking about.

[Dams1986]

I thought there was a glimmer of Mat changing his views on Aes Sedai in the book. When he was thinking about either Teslyn or Joline, whichever one isn't the pretty one. A small bit of melting of his resolve there, a tiny bit.

I pretty sure I'm thinking of Teslyn, so its probably Joline I am really thinking about.

 

It is Teslyn - the bitter-faced Red who turns out to have a heart of gold. I thought what Verin did with the letter was ridiculous... she should have just told Mat to warn Elayne... I think because originally she was hoping to rejoin the Light, she didn't want Mat to find out how she knew about the Shadow's plans. But at the end of the day, the world was on the line... she should have taken the risk and Mat of all people could be trusted to keep that part a secret.

[Cyf]

God, Bob. Why do you read the books if you hate them so much, seriously?

 

Anyway, there is free will in the WoT. Up to a point. As Moiraine says in the first book to paraphrase (a man could be a carpenter, or a farmer, but becoming king isn't likely ... usually). Free will is free will, but there are limits, just like iRL. I mean, there's no way I'm going to become King of the World, but a man can become president. :) The WoT just has different limiting factors.

[Alternate34]

I don't get how people cannot blame Mat at all in this. He could have opened the letter knowing it was something important. His motivation was his paranoid dislike of Aes Sedai. That he has some justified fear of Aes Sedai doesn't fully excuse him. As to Verin, some fault lies with her, but didn't the Black Ajah Oath restrict her in someway? I'd have to look back on it, but I think that motivated her unorthodox way of telling Mat. When Mat returns, he SHOULD feel guilty.

 

On a side note, I find it extremely weird when people hate characters in this book. Aside from generally hating women not named Moiraine, it seems people do not want characters with internal conflict and human characteristics, but robots who become perfect. Hating Mat is a great example. He has immature aspects and is often flippant. That's his character. But the story wouldn't work if those aspects went away. Bob T Dwarf, what kind of stories do you read if you basically can't stand any characters who have moral ambiguity or interesting behavior? The novelization of Leave it to Beaver?

 

And hating Aes Sedai, including Cadsuane, is so passe. Why do they try and control everything? Because the world would have been a craphole if they didn't. Why do they try to control Rand? Because he could go insane and blow up the world. Why doesn't Egwene just listen to Rand? Because Rand was near insane already and his plan is to FREE THE DARK ONE! We know he is probably right because we see everyone's point of view, all of the research and the information he has as Lews Therin. If she just fell in line, she would be insane.

[Caius Callus]

I don't get how people cannot blame Mat at all in this. He could have opened the letter knowing it was something important. His motivation was his paranoid dislike of Aes Sedai. That he has some justified fear of Aes Sedai doesn't fully excuse him. As to Verin, some fault lies with her, but didn't the Black Ajah Oath restrict her in someway? I'd have to look back on it, but I think that motivated her unorthodox way of telling Mat. When Mat returns, he SHOULD feel guilty.

Maybe he could have opened it, but opening the letter would have forced him to do whatever the letter told him to do. And considering the experiences he's had with the Aes Sedai and others manipualting him, I can fully believe and sympathize with him not wanting to get entangled in yet another subplot.

[Zefram]

Am i the only one who is somewhat happy that Caemlyn is burning? I don´t know why. maybe it´s just because i don´t like Elayne. Maybe i find that one of the greatest cities in Randland getting burned to the ground (not that Caemlyn is lost, Talmanes will quite likely put on his hero boots and slaughter some shadowspawn) is necessary to make us realize that the Last battle will not be limited to Rand going to SG and bleeding on the rocks there.

 

So far, the vast majority of Randland has been spared from actual shadowspawn attack. Only Tear, Agelmars town, Algiarins manor, the Two Rivers and a couple of villages between Shienar and Cairhien have been struck outside of the Borderlands(and the battle in this book, but that was in the middle of nowhere). Bubbles of evil and food decay and whatnot are pretty bad, But hordes of Shadowspawn coming to eat you is worse.

 

Or maybe i´m a darkfriend.

 

 

About the Caemlyn Waygate, didn´t Loial say that even after it was closed an Aes Sedai could cut it open?

 

 

First of all, Andor is always mentioned as being attacked by Trollocs after Borderlands, everytime Tarmon Gai'don and trolloc attack from Blight is mentioned they say Borderlands and Andor will burn. Arad Doman, Tar Valon are far closer to Borderlands than Andor and Andor is just as close to Blight as Cairhien but only Andor is mentioned. The only time Arad Doman is mentioned is when native Domani like Illitrude thinks at the moment when he sees thousands upon thousands of Trollocs and his heart sinks because Saldaea will burn, then Arad Doman and then he mentions Andor. And Andor is not even close to Saldaea!

 

Secondly, I agree, there was a WHOLE part where Rand was closing all the gates and got Loial and then a replacement Orgier to show ALL waygates to him and I think he even sent out that Asha'man with Loial to close ALL gates, then that Asha'man returned about 2 books back having fulfilled his mission, how could they miss Caemlyn's?

 

 

 

This was the part of the epilogue that hit me in the face. This is big. And I don't mean Olver. Caemlyn is the center of Andor and is now controlled by the Shadow. Throw in the Black Tower and Andor is basically half a shadow base. But there is more. It compromises Elayne's ability to rule both Andor and Cairhien as she can't even effectively rule one country. Cairhienen machinations may challenge her authority. The only part of Andor clearly with the Light is the Two Rivers, which isn't firmly with Elayne after her agreements with Perrin. Lastly, she may be accused of being friends with Shadow. Where did those Trollocs come from? Did they just appear within your city? But there is even more. Mat could have prevented this by opening up a simple letter. Letter open, enter Caemlyn, destroy Waygate, done. He doesn't because he is stubbournly set against White Tower strings. His choice to run from them rather than engage them basically doomed Caemlyn. That might make him a wee bit depressed.

 

Also, the Shadow has dragons now. Good luck holding any stronghold against them.

 

 

First of all, Caemlyn is attacked NOT conquered at all. Secondly Dragons have NOT fallen into shadow as of yet, even in Aviendha's vision in the future (before Seanchan) Andor is the only one with Dragons. I am pretty sure that there will be a whole battle sequence in Caemlyn, first with Talmanes and Red Hands miraculously getting Dragons out, then street-by-street battle and someone making a suicide run to break the Waygate (ala Two Rivers) and with Elayne's troops joining in as part of actual Tarmon Gai'don sequence juxtaposed with other armies fighting in Borderlands and Rand in Shayol Gul, and perhaps even Elaybe giving birth. I am pretty sure that Elayne will not go to Shayol Ghul or even Borderlands. They might, though I doubt it, win the battle in Caemlyn BEFORE everyone's armies leave for Borderlands/Shayol Ghul.

Why are you talking like Caemlyn falling is a done deal and Dragons are captured and its a shadow base now? The tone of that scene is defiant, sort of like let the fighting begin and not of we failed. Its just a beginning of an attack, of the battle! What makes you think it won't be won immediately? Same thing happened to Two Rivers, is it the shadow stronghold now?!

 

 

 

 

Mat really only did what any sensible person would do; Avoided further entanglements with Aes Sedai. Entirely in character, and should not have been assumed. Verin was not as all-wise as some readers would claim. If she was, she wouldn't have gotten herself into the Black Ajah in the forst place.

She made him swear to do as she said which was her failing.She could have instead said : "After a day or two please open the letter ".If she though he wouldn't believe her she could have swore in front of him that everything in that envelope was true down to the last letter.

She tried but in the end she behaved too much like the Aes Sedai that she was.

 

I am currently re-reading tGS and its BOTH their faults. Verin originally asked him to stay in Caemlyn and open the letter in 10days! Mat started

asking questions and complaining and she changed to deal for him to either open it immediately and do what it says or to STAY in Caemlyn for 20 days and open the letter or just forget about it. Knowing Mat, did anyone guess that he will choose the 3rd option? If he had done eithe first or second choice, he'd been there for an attack. But its kind of Verin's fault too because she made a HUGE deal out of having Mat do what she says in the letter, and at the end letter was simply "hey mat there'll be an attack. be a dear and have the waygate destroyed".

 

The whole Psycho-Olver thing hit me out of the blue. I was hoping he wasn't going to kill Talmanes for denying that he won the Snakes and Foxes game.

 

Why would you even think that? There's zero indication that he's hostile. He just decides Talmanes obviously doesn't know what he's talking about and drops the subject, then gets up to stretch his legs a bit. The worst thing he thinks about Talmanes is that he's not the ideal wingman for a night of tavern-hopping and charming the serving-girls. Other than that minor character flaw, Olver thinks he's a reasonably righteous dude.

 

I didn't think that Olver would attack Talmanes, but he did give me a chills too, he felt like another Aram! I think that perhaps later on he will kill/attack Mat for not doing what he wants to or someone important. At the same time, I also feel he might be the one to save Mat or Aviendha as a big deal. So he either kills someone important or saves someone important.

[didymos]

I think because originally she was hoping to rejoin the Light, she didn't want Mat to find out how she knew about the Shadow's plans. But at the end of the day, the world was on the line... she should have taken the risk and Mat of all people could be trusted to keep that part a secret.

 

Verin was trying to work around her Oath to the Shadow. She couldn't just tell him outright, as that would be betraying the Great Lord's secrets and she had to make him delay opening it and believe in herself that he would delay so that the hour of her death would have passed. Nothing else would have worked around the Oath short of her dying then and there. It was actually very clever, but unfortunately she outsmarted herself.

[didymos]

The whole Psycho-Olver thing hit me out of the blue. I was hoping he wasn't going to kill Talmanes for denying that he won the Snakes and Foxes game.

 

Why would you even think that? There's zero indication that he's hostile. He just decides Talmanes obviously doesn't know what he's talking about and drops the subject, then gets up to stretch his legs a bit. The worst thing he thinks about Talmanes is that he's not the ideal wingman for a night of tavern-hopping and charming the serving-girls. Other than that minor character flaw, Olver thinks he's a reasonably righteous dude.

 

I didn't think that Olver would attack Talmanes, but he did give me a chills too, he felt like another Aram! I think that perhaps later on he will kill/attack Mat for not doing what he wants to or someone important. At the same time, I also feel he might be the one to save Mat or Aviendha as a big deal. So he either kills someone important or saves someone important.

 

Yeah, but why? Mat has already failed to do stuff Olver wanted, like take him into the Tower of Ghenjei. He was a bit annoyed that they tried to hide it from him, but he wasn't truly mad about it. He understood just fine why Noal got to go and he didn't, and even approved of the decision in his own way. I really don't see where people are seeing anything sinister about Olver. He's an unusual kid, sure, but why wouldn't he be? He's been orphaned, having witnessed both parents' deaths, adopted by a very unusual army, his role-model is Mat Cauthon, and he's spent large amounts of time hanging out with Thom Merrilin, Jain Farstrider, Juilin Sandar, the ex-Panarch of Tarabon (and former da'covale) various current and ex- Aes Sedai, a succession of hot Ebou Dari noblewomen, an entire circus, and the heir to the Seanchan Empire and her bodyguard.

[Bob T Dwarf]

Yeah, but why? Mat has already failed to do stuff Olver wanted, like take him into the Tower of Ghenjei. He was a bit annoyed that they tried to hide it from him, but he wasn't truly mad about it. He understood just fine why Noal got to go and he didn't, and even approved of the decision in his own way. I really don't see where people are seeing anything sinister about Olver. He's an unusual kid, sure, but why wouldn't he be? He's been orphaned, having witnessed both parents' deaths, adopted by a very unusual army, his role-model is Mat Cauthon, and he's spent large amounts of time hanging out with Thom Merrilin, Jain Farstrider, Juilin Sandar, the ex-Panarch of Tarabon (and former da'covale) various current and ex- Aes Sedai, a succession of hot Ebou Dari noblewomen, an entire circus, and the heir to the Seanchan Empire and her bodyguard.

 

None of which makes him a poster-boy for good character and upstanding citizenship.

 

If we're trying to be realistic, he's never going to have anything but a tortured life.

[Caius Callus]

Nah, Grub... I mean Olver, is destined for greatness, I'm sure.

[TheAngryDruid]

1. Graendal.

 

Well, she joins Moggy and Mesaana in the SH rape club. (And probably Cyndane as well).

 

As for who is now going to hurt Rand, I'd bet on Moghedien. She already hates Nynaeve. Lanfear appears busy, but if #6 is a trap, then it is her. And she clearly has reasons to hate Avi/Elayne/Min. There are only 5 Forsaken around: Moridin himself is out, Graendal is out. Demandred is leading the armies, was too important to waste time hunting Perrin/Mat or Rand's lovers. He wants to KILL Rand.

 

So I think it is down to Moggy (who probably set up the whole Caemlyn thing) and Lanfear.

--------------

2. Perrin.

 

Yes, well done and about time. I never thought it was Noam's choice either.

------------------

3. Olver/Caemlyn/Talmanes

 

Count me as one who wasn't the least bit disturbed by anything Olver thought. He's 10. Or whatever. He wants to find out who killed his father and get him. Perfectly natural. He hates Aiel for what they did. Pretty natural there too. He's immature. Maybe he goes south, maybe not.

 

I've haven't been able to stomach Mat for 2 books now. And it continues here. That letter really diminishes Verin (she could have done a lot better, and BS' Q&A answer was flat out weak). All she had to do was maneuver a little better with Mat (use your judgment after you open it, I promise it won't be that onerous) OR give the letter to a sister, Elayne, or Egwene. Big catastrophe and easy fix.

 

Still, the city isn't lost yet, there are forces there. But the BT will likely have to pick a side now.

--------------------

 

4. Red Aiel.

 

The 13x13 thing only works on channelers, so it wouldn't work for an entire people. The Portal Stone Aiel thing is a intriguing idea, which would give the DO a lot of forces. My money is on that, Shara, or madmen.

--------------------

 

5. Cyndane.

 

While I think a trap is a big possibility, especially given SH's words to Graendal, I'm a stubborn believer in the redemption idea. Now, I don't think Lanfear will be all goody-goody, but I think she'll help to save her skin, or thwart the DO from annihilating all of existence (once Rand tells her or if she's already figured it out).

 

Still, I think this was fantastic. If it is a trap, then Moridin set it, if not, we know she can batter through Rand's wards.

----------------

 

6. Lan

 

I must say, I continue to be furious that Rand/Egwene hasn't given any aid to Lan, despite promises (Rand) and foreknowledge (Egwene). Not only to Lan, but to any of the Borderlands (that we know of), save Rand's late second decision not to let Maradon be overrun. Why his reasoning there doesn't apply to Heath Tower, or Arafel, or the Gap, I'll never know.

[Bob T Dwarf]

 

6. Lan

 

I must say, I continue to be furious that Rand/Egwene hasn't given any aid to Lan, despite promises (Rand) and foreknowledge (Egwene). Not only to Lan, but to any of the Borderlands (that we know of), save Rand's late second decision not to let Maradon be overrun. Why his reasoning there doesn't apply to Heath Tower, or Arafel, or the Gap, I'll never know.

 

It probably would if he knew about it. He doesn't have any generals that he promised to support in any of those places, so with eveythng else he's got to handle, he hasn't gone there to see what's happening. Now, you could argue that not doing so is pretty silly and shortsighted of him, and I'd agree, but that's fodder for a different post.

 

Since there is unaccounted time for him, I continue to hope that either he or Nynaeve( some of her time is unaccounted, too ) are doing something helpful with regard to Lan.

[Charlz Guybon]

 

I didn't think that Olver would attack Talmanes, but he did give me a chills too, he felt like another Aram! I think that perhaps later on he will kill/attack Mat for not doing what he wants to or someone important. At the same time, I also feel he might be the one to save Mat or Aviendha as a big deal. So he either kills someone important or saves someone important.

I think this reaction is literally crazy. There is nothing to indicate there's anything wrong with the boy.

[Owayn The Traveller]

Nah the Mogster is after Mat. I proved it in another thread. I'm great like that.

[Demon_AS]

Rand and Cyndane...

 

Well, I have to say, I can't see Cyndane being redeemed. She was in a murderous rage when she tried to kill Rand as he was cleansing saidin - she seemed pretty dead set on that.

 

We know Lanfear to be a woman of absolutes, and I think she has already flipped from love to hate for Lews Therin.

 

Thus, I can only conclude that this is another ploy to lure Rand in before sucker-punching him with a Domination Band or some such. I doubt she's aware that he has access to the True Power, so it's a possibility.

 

But I think Lanfear's ship has sailed, in terms of Light redemption - it would be a weak ending to the terror-inspiring Lanfear.

[WolfDragonFox]

1. Graendal's in trouble.

 

Yeah...its a tough subject but home girl got raped....whoa. He told her she wasn't going to forget....yikes i bet not... that was so brief but so dark it gave me chills.

 

2. Perrin realises Noam chose to become a wolf.

 

I man'd my way through it...but this had me tearing up for sure. Beautiful reveal and a great payoff to give Perrin relief and peace of mind knowing that he indeed chose his own balance with the wolf and that one of his worries was unfounded but it was a driving force to bring around his acceptance.

 

3. Olver's seems to be a budding sociopath, and Caemlyn is invaded by Shadowspawn. Talmanes fears the loss of the Dragons.

 

Yeah this dude is gonna start another Aiel war and I'm thinking he will be a catalyst to another coming of the next age when darkness rears its ugly head again.

 

4. Creepy Red Aiel Dudes.

 

I gotta say i think as well that these are the Male Aiel channelers and the NO ONE has ahold of these guys...they are mad beyond belief hence the filing of the teeth. These guys are gonna be nasty! They could go around killing dark and light alike!! Just my opinion tho

 

5. Rand dreams of Cyndane- we know she is infatuated with him and i'm thinking he probably had a lil thing with her back in the day and we know he's fully in touch with both dragons now. She may be contemplating a return to light and standing against the Dark One but she's under mind trap so i'm inclinded to say its another trap from Ishy/Moridin to get Rand to falter.

 

 

 

6. Lan reaches the Gap.

 

No chance he dies. Gotta impregnate Nynaeve to keep the Malkier line going first. I'm thinking Nynaeve and will be sending the help that Rand provides for him. We already saw him say he's gonna get him some help.

[Alternate34]

 

First of all, Caemlyn is attacked NOT conquered at all. Secondly Dragons have NOT fallen into shadow as of yet, even in Aviendha's vision in the future (before Seanchan) Andor is the only one with Dragons. I am pretty sure that there will be a whole battle sequence in Caemlyn, first with Talmanes and Red Hands miraculously getting Dragons out, then street-by-street battle and someone making a suicide run to break the Waygate (ala Two Rivers) and with Elayne's troops joining in as part of actual Tarmon Gai'don sequence juxtaposed with other armies fighting in Borderlands and Rand in Shayol Gul, and perhaps even Elaybe giving birth. I am pretty sure that Elayne will not go to Shayol Ghul or even Borderlands. They might, though I doubt it, win the battle in Caemlyn BEFORE everyone's armies leave for Borderlands/Shayol Ghul.

Why are you talking like Caemlyn falling is a done deal and Dragons are captured and its a shadow base now? The tone of that scene is defiant, sort of like let the fighting begin and not of we failed. Its just a beginning of an attack, of the battle! What makes you think it won't be won immediately? Same thing happened to Two Rivers, is it the shadow stronghold now?!

 

 

Here are the reasons why I think the Shadow will successfully take Caemlyn.

 

(1) Rand is going to be unavailable to help with any assault to retake Caemlyn. He has to break the seals and deal with the aftermath. He can't do that well when Caemlyn is burning. That is the first major weapon that the Light has for defense and it is off the table. An argument against this would be that everyone convinces Rand to delay and square some more things up. It seems unlikely that Rand would do that. Additionally, while the Light's forces are gathered together, they will not all focus on Caemlyn. The Borderlands are under serious assault. The White Tower will probably be attacked by the Seanchan soon (they have shown a penchant for quick strikes). The Black Tower is a stronghold for the Shadow or soon will be. Oh, and the Seanchan are not your allies yet. It is a classic example of overstretch.

 

(2) Unlike the Two Rivers, the Trollocs have sprouted up inside the city. This isn't a defense against a foe from the outside. This is attacking a foe already inside the walls of your city. That is a far more difficult task. I am struggling to remember a battle in the book where the Light had to take a city from the Shadow in a siege situation. The Stone of Tear was taken by ambush. All other times, the Shadow began with an assault of a fortification or a moving army. They may have been aware enough to attack while the best generals and leaders were away, though it could have been fortuitous timing. Again, this is not the Two Rivers. There are more Trollocs. The first group of Trollocs in the Two Rivers (when they first went for Rand) was a far smaller force. The second group of Trollocs in the Two Rivers was a larger force than the first, but still a smaller force than the force to assault Caemlyn and they didn't pop up right in the middle of the city. Lastly, the Shadow was playing with kid's gloves before, acting in secret, not wanting to spur a full blown war so they could surreptitiously undermine the Light. Now, they have no such reservations. Their presence is known.

 

(3) Communication time. This may be less of a problem as the Kin may still be in Caemlyn. Elayne was preparing for some sort of assault so she may have set this up. On the other hand, the Shadow has been preparing for this a long time as well. Slip in a Grey Man or 3 prior to the attack, slay the few channelers, then let the assault begin. Elayne doesn't receive word of the attack and all you have is a force (The Band and Caemlyn Soldiers) unprepared for an ambush and missing their greatest leaders. By the way, Caemlyn soldiers have yet to fight Shadowspawn so good luck with that defense. I admit, this requires some speculation, not huge leaps of logic, but some speculation. Here's the thing, if the communication takes as long as a day, Caemlyn should be taken by then, and I'll explain further below.

 

(4) Sending Trollocs through the ways requires at least some Myrdraal. Those beasts will need some control. I wouldn't be surprised if a Forsaken was behind it, but that is a big leap because they are busy people. These Trollocs will have some level of discipline because of their Myrdraal masters. Sure, they'll still be your rampaging, fun loving Trollocs, but they aren't going to be completely disorganized.

 

(5) The huge advantage these Trollocs have. First, surprise. All the forces on the outside of the city haven't been mustered. The garrison is expecting an attacking force from outside of the city, not within it. The garrison also has little to no experience with Shadowspawn. We also know that the Shadow can get spies into the castle because of Elayne's episode interrogating the prisoners. The element of surprise is a huge advantage. That isn't the only advantage. Attacking from within one set of walls is another huge advantage, no siege required. The third is numbers. Bob T Dwarf mention that these Trollocs come in at most at 3 abreast. Hey, I'll take 2 abreast and still love the odds for the Shadow. Rushing in (not marching because they are Trollocs), you can fairly give them 2 Trollocs for every 3 seconds. That's 40 per minute. 2400 per hour. 10 hours gets you 24000 Trollocs. Personally, I think those estimates are conserative.

 

We have been somewhat inured to the Trollocs numbers so far because of the Manor assault of thousands of Trollocs, the assault of Maradon, and the force at Tarwin's Gap facing Lan. 24000 Trollocs with some Myrdraal behind them inside the city would destroy the place very quickly. Maybe they don't get the Dragons. Maybe the mazelike cooridors of the castle mess with them. Maybe the dragons have been moved to a secret location. Even assuming no dragons, the Shadow has just slaughtered and literally ate your citizens.

 

(6) The tone. I didn't get defiance. Sure, Talmanes isn't going to roll over an die, but I got a different feeling. That feeling was first Olver is kind of a sociopath. It goes beyond wanting vengeance. He consciously uses Mat as a tool and nothing more. He expresses no affection and now this sociopath wants to kill. More importantly, Talmanes was completely and totally caught off guard by the assault. He reads the note, gets a little nervous, looks at Caemlyn, and sees it on fire. This is from outside of the city. The Trollocs have already begun burning it down, before any effective response by any military strength. I don't see the defiance, I see some panic.

 

(7) This is more subjective. The Last Battle is nigh. It is about time for some major Shadow victories. Caemlyn is huge. TGS made it seem as if the Shadow had a fighting chance. ToM was more a string of several victories by the Light with the only tension being Perrin's fate, though the Tower of Ghenjei sequence was pretty tense as well. AMoL will need to provide the sensation that the Shadow may yet win even without breaking Rand. Taking Caemlyn would be a good start.

[Sharaman]

What odds the Ogier will arrive via the Waygate as a relief force?