Now this disturbed me - numbers

[Muad Cheade]

Every time Perrin or Mat leaves the beaten path they are in wilderness, not threading their way through farmland.

 

Europe's population grew in spite of wars, pestilence, and disease because everywhere you looked their were productive farms and estates, not vacant wilderness.

 

They're not vacant. You only think they are because Jordan does not go into detail about each nation's agricultural capabilities and the countryside.

 

You're mistaken about Perrin and Mat. The entire time Mat was with Luca's Show they passed farms, villages, and towns. The same goes for Perrin when he was hunting the Shaido.

 

I just pointed out why the nations' sizes shrunk. They found it not necessary to guard unpopulated lands. Their current borders reflect their population sizes. If you go outside the national borders, that is in fact the wilderness.

 

No, nations' sizes shrunk because humanity is failing.

 

That's what drives Ingtar to convert, and it's something that Moiraine deplores all the way back in New Spring.

 

This was, of course, part of Elan Morin's plans.

 

He tried to wreck humanity during the Trolloc Wars, but, as we have been told countless times, far more was lost during the War of A Hundred Years. Essentially, he started that war by sending off Hawkwing's ridiculous expeditions to Seanchan and Shara, and then preventing Hawkwing from receiving healing, and then finally by killing off the top contenders to succeed him.

 

After that, it was just a matter of allowing humanity to destroy itself.

 

That is true, but the according to tWoRJWoT, the borders of nations did shrink as the populations in the outlands decreased so the kingdoms decreased their borders to the maximium outreach of their population. That wasn't really clear.

 

It's the same reason nations such as Hardan and Maredo fell away and dissipated.

 

 

They're not vacant. You only think they are because Jordan does not go into detail about each nation's agricultural capabilities and the countryside.

 

You're mistaken about Perrin and Mat. The entire time Mat was with Luca's Show they passed farms, villages, and towns. The same goes for Perrin when he was hunting the Shaido.

 

I just pointed out why the nations' sizes shrunk. They found it not necessary to guard unpopulated lands. Their current borders reflect their population sizes. If you go outside the national borders, that is in fact the wilderness.

 

Luca's Circus is moving via a bunch of big wagons.  Those require roads.  They frequently pass through stretches where there are no farms.  I've already said there are farms along the major trade routes.

 

Now, reflect on the little ride Mat takes with Tuon.  When they see the Tuatha'an ahead, Tuon gallops off into the countryside, and Mat follows her into that wilderness.

 

Wilderness, wilderness, everywhere.  Very few farms.  What there are are clustered around the towns and cities.

 

Nowhere near the number of farms and farmers needed to feed the people we know about let alone those we don't.

 

Magical armies.  Magical settlers.  Magical Trollocs, Magical food stores.  All that food that is supposedly rotting shouldn't really be there anyway because there aren't enough farms and farmers to have produced it.

 

I was giving the example that they were far from the major cities yet towns, villages and farms remained.

 

Mat, Tuon, and Selucia were still close to that road. They were simply in a very forested area so why would there be a farm in a place where a farm would struggle?

 

Look at the Two Rivers, it is very remote yet has a fairly big population.

 

When Mat reunites with the Band there are farms and he is well off the road by then and not close to any major cities.

 

And finally, look at Tear. It has a fairly large population and geographically it's an ideal place to grow large about of grain. The same grain Rand sent to both Cairhien and Illian.

 

Did you not read what I said earlier about the levies of commoners making up the larger armies? Andor is  the most populous and largest of of the nations, and the reason they do not send men to remote places like the Two Rivers is because they have more important places to keep control over like the rich mines in Mountains of Mists, the border with Cairhien and the border with Murandy.

 

Exactly. There was a nation once called Almoth, it fell away due to low population levels and both Tarabon and Amadacia tried to control it but their borders decreased. It's exactly what I was saying. It makes sense that the Seanchan would attempt to settle there as Tarabon and the Almoth Plain was thought to be quiet, and I wouldn't say the Seanchan settling means the countryside is vacant. It makes sense that if a people would accept the Seanchan as their overlords, would they not accept them as their neighbors? Not enough has been said of the Seanchan settling that could support your statement.

[Bob T Dwarf]

We're told that Caemlyn is a city of about 300,000 people.  Using 17th century farming methods, you'd need 3 million farmers ( that includes their families ) just to supply the needs of that one city.  Have we seen 3 million farmers not just in Andor, but in all of Randland?

 

Lets postulate an average farm family size of 5.  That's 600,000 farms.  Ten maybe twenty acres is about all a single family can work using 17th century methods and technology.  So, that's 6,000,000 -12,000,000 acres of tillable land.  That's 9375 - 18,750 square miles of farmland.  Roughly an area 100 miles by 100 miles to 100 miles by 200 miles.

 

The Black Tower was established on an abandoned farm close enough to Caemlyn that Elayne could ride out to inspect it in an afternoon. And get back in time for a bath before dinner.

 

As the little old lady used to say, "Where's the beef?"

 

We can't find the beef anywhere, no matter how hard we look because it's magical beef, to go along with the magical barley, and magical beans, and magical carrots, and magical turnips, and magical onions, and magical wheat, and magical corn, and magical sheep and magical pigs that make up the food supply of those 300,000 people that live in magical Caemlyn.

 

And, the magical Seanchan should have lots of trouble finding places to settle in the Tarabon countryside because Tarabon should be chock-a-block with 17th century farms just to feed the people in Tanchico.  I guess Tarabon must be a magical place with magical food, too.

[ohaitharguiz]

RJ studied at Citadel, a military academy, he knows something about military logistics i would think.

[magnutz]

RJ studied at Citadel, a military academy, he knows something about military logistics i would think.

 

Read some of the posts above. To feed a city of 300.000 you need a lot of farmers. There aren't and there isn't room for them if there were. ;)

 

It is all magical food and magical armies.

[singogreatest360]

I'm saying that the size of the population will tell you how many farms there are. If you refuse to beleive the farms are there thats up to you....

 

Randland is a BIG place dont forget that. There is plenty of room for farms. What else is taking up all that room????

[magnutz]

I'm saying that the size of the population will tell you how many farms there are. If you refuse to beleive the farms are there thats up to you....

 

Randland is a BIG place dont forget that. There is plenty of room for farms. What else is taking up all that room????

 

Sure Randland is a large land. It doesn't wash/add up though. Too many on the road at the same time. Famine and rebellions and.. food riots.. with the ammount of people running about in Randland there would be total chaos I think. The Shaido whould HAVE TO ravage/savage/? the land in order to survive. Leaving nothing behind but scorched earth. And dead farmers. --> Not enough farmers to supply the people.

 

I will just write all this off as "magical elements taking care of the ground works" - ;)

[Blackhoof]

Well, nobodies perfect. RJ cant know everything. Who can blame him if his world should be starving. :)

[Bob T Dwarf]

RJ studied at Citadel, a military academy, he knows something about military logistics i would think.

 

You'd think so, wouldn't you?  But, what he wrote doesn't reflect that.  He must have slept through those classes.

 

Follow Perrin, Mat, and Rand around.  Everywhere they go there is little mention of farms, but lots of mention of wilderness.

 

The ships he describes are fitting for 17th century technology, but there aren't enough of them to have transported so many people and so much materiel so far.

 

The population he shows us is too small to support the size of the armies he tells us there are everywhere.  There aren't enough blacksmiths to keep that many horses shod.  Or supply the arms and armor for armies of such size.  Not enough tanners to supply all the leather for all of the boots that are needed.  Not enough bakers to bake all the bread needed.  Which probably doesn't matter much because, as far as I can remember, he hasn't shown us any mills or any millers to grind grain into flour for the non-existent bakers to bake into bread.  Etc, etc, ad infinitum.

 

Many large troop concentrations in lots of locations.  Several sizable cities.  No infrastructure to support either.

[Nightstrike]

Yes, there's a lot of wilderness. But there could still be farmers on more locations than people seem to think. Mat and company, for instance, traveled whilst trying to go unnoticed. They wouldn't voluntarily ride their horses through some poor farmer's wheat fields.

 

 

 

[Bob T Dwarf]

Not just a lot.  Randland is almost exclusively wilderness.

 

Arymilla and her merry band of besiegers set up camp within sight of the Caemlyn walls.  They lived and ate in tents because there was no other place for them to do either.

 

You should have to go 50 miles in any direction from Caemlyn before you begin to run out of a countryside that is absolutely packed with smaller towns, villages and productive farms.  If you don't have to do that Caemlyn starves.  If you don't have to do that Caemlyn can never grow to become a city of 300,000.

 

But there they are, in open, unused space, within sight of the city walls.

 

Magic.  It's all magic.

[Nightstrike]

Randland is almost exclusively wilderness.

I doubt that very much.

 

Arymilla and her merry band of besiegers set up camp within sight of the Caemlyn walls.  They lived and ate in tents because there was no other place for them to do either.

 

You should have to go 50 miles in any direction from Caemlyn before you begin to run out of a countryside that is absolutely packed with smaller towns, villages and productive farms.  If you don't have to do that Caemlyn starves.  If you don't have to do that Caemlyn can never grow to become a city of 300,000.

Would they take in Aiel? Would the Aiel sleep in hay lofts (above horses)?

 

 

[Bob T Dwarf]

What Aiel?  Arymilla didn't have any Aiel.

 

The Aiel that are in the vicinity are near Bashere.  His forces and those Aiel are also camping on open land within sight of Caemlyn, but out-of-sight from Arymilla and her forces.

 

And, remember that Rand doesn't want Elayne to learn that he's got Bashere plus the Aiel covering her back.  So, they are being careful to stay away from anywhere there might be prying eyes.  Meaning not only are they camping on open ground, but there's lots of unoccupied land around them.

 

IOW there's a LOT of empty space around Caemlyn.  Too much.  Just like there's too much empty space everywhere.

[richnewton82]

.

[richnewton82]

.

[Bob T Dwarf]

Well now, lessee -

Crossroads of Twilight - Prologue

... Standing in ankle-deep snow among the leafless trees on a rise perhaps a league north of Caemlyn, he held a long gold-mounted looking glass to his eye, studying the activity on the lower ground about a mile south of him. ...

  A sprawling camp was going up down there among the scattered trees, astride the road to Tar Valon, soldiers unloading supply wagons, digging latrines, erecting tents and building lean-tos of brush and tree-limbs scattered in clumps of varying size, each lord and lady keeping their own men close.  They expected to be in place for some time.  From the horselines and general extent of the camp, he estimated close to five thousand men give or take a few hundred.  Fighting men; fletchers, farriers, armorers, laundresses, wagon drivers and other camp followers as good as doubled that, though as usual they were making their own camp on the fringes. ...

... Seven more like camps were being made, though spaced around the city where they could cover every road, every gate that would allow a sizable sortie.

 

So, here we have Bashere, and not too far away his remaining 8000 Saldaen Horse, along with their own like-sized group of camp followers, in two adjacent camps that "spread wider than the camp back on the Tar Valon Road."  Plus the 5000 man besieger camp and their camp followers along the Tar Valon Road, plus seven more like-sized encampments along every other main road into Caemlyn, and everybody is living in tents.  Nobody gets to sleep in a farmhouse.  None of the horses get turned-out into a pasture, or get put into a stall in a barn.

 

Roughly 10,000 people each camped out along both sides of every major approach into Caemlyn, within sight of the walls, and no mention of even one farm.  Just a few trees, some rolling hills, and snow.

 

Whose perception is it that's flawed?

 

How is it that there are scattered trees and clumps of brush and downed limbs so close to a major city that would have required mainly wood for heat in the wintertime?  Every hillside within 20 miles should have been stripped bare of anything that would burn.

 

8 Encampments all sitting on what should be the most prosperous farmland in Andor because those farms would have the mosst immediate access to the huge market that is Caemlyn.  Not one farmhouse gets mentioned.  Nobody is seen negotiating with even one farmer for the use of his land.

 

If Jordan could mention, at great length, the extent, kind, color, and weave of every bit of lace on every collar of every dress, it seems reasonable that he could mention a few farms every now and then.  Since he doesn't.  Since he has armies sitting on prime farmland without any mention of farm or farmer, I'm forced to conclude that the farms don't get mentioned because they just aren't there.

 

No realism present whatsoever.

[Elgee]

Perin did send his Two Rivers men to go camp in an open field, though, and told them to pay any farmer who came complaining.

 

And then there was Mat and Rand's journey from White Bridge to Caemlyn, during which they stopped off each night at either a farm or a village, when they didn't sleep under a hedge.

[Alghar Khan]

Roughly 10,000 people each camped out along both sides of every major approach into Caemlyn, within sight of the walls, and no mention of even one farm.  Just a few trees, some rolling hills, and snow.

 

Whose perception is it that's flawed?

Maybe the land closest to Caemlyn happen to be less suitable for farming than other parts of Andor? Or, maybe they chose to camp on areas not already occupied by farmers and their fields.

 

How is it that there are scattered trees and clumps of brush and downed limbs so close to a major city that would have required mainly wood for heat in the wintertime?  Every hillside within 20 miles should have been stripped bare of anything that would burn.

Edict from the queen (on behalf of the Ogier) for sparing the forests?

 

Since he doesn't.  Since he has armies sitting on prime farmland without any mention of farm or farmer, I'm forced to conclude that the farms don't get mentioned because they just aren't there.

How do you conclude that it is "prime farmland"? Why would they camp on a farmer's field, if there is any other land?

 

No realism present whatsoever.

You're so harsh.  :(

 

[magnutz]

Perin did send his Two Rivers men to go camp in an open field, though, and told them to pay any farmer who came complaining.

 

And then there was Mat and Rand's journey from White Bridge to Caemlyn, during which they stopped off each night at either a farm or a village, when they didn't sleep under a hedge.

 

Perhaps there are enough farmers. I do wonder how things fared during the "bad" weather part of the story.,. No rain, only heat. I know lots of farmers moved to the towns/cities and that there were bad sh*t in many places but not enough I guess. But then RJ didn't spend any time on describing the "common" part of any place if none of his characters were found there for any reason. ;)

 

Anyhow, will spend an hour or so with my Audiobook version of Crossroads of Twilight tonight. Oh joy! :D Thank you James O. Rigney Jr - RJ - for what you have done and continue doing through your wife and through Brandon Sanderson.

[HighLordXanthus]

You all make me laugh !!  I love this series very much, dont get me wrong I know you all do as well, otherwise you wouldn't argue so much about it.  At his core, Jordan was a master entertainer.  He was a gleeman.  What does Thom always say, that he can make feel like you are the hero, smell, see and live in his tales.  These books are bogged down enough with useless drivvel (i.e. womens cloths).  Are you trying to say he should have been MORE indepth?  A good entertainer tells the story that wants to be heard.  More information about numbers, farms, "logistics" while maybe interesting in an academic sense is NOT good story. 

 

I can see there there are a few people who know enough about the logistics side of our own history and war.  For you few, what would you have rather had.  A lush immersive world that you could feel a part of, or a history book listing dull figures with no soul or spirit?

[magnutz]

You all make me laugh !!  I love this series very much, dont get me wrong I know you all do as well, otherwise you wouldn't argue so much about it.  At his core, Jordan was a master entertainer.  He was a gleeman.  What does Thom always say, that he can make feel like you are the hero, smell, see and live in his tales.  These books are bogged down enough with useless drivvel (i.e. womens cloths).  Are you trying to say he should have been MORE indepth?  A good entertainer tells the story that wants to be heard.  More information about numbers, farms, "logistics" while maybe interesting in an academic sense is NOT good story. 

 

I can see there there are a few people who know enough about the logistics side of our own history and war.  For you few, what would you have rather had.  A lush immersive world that you could feel a part of, or a history book listing dull figures with no soul or spirit?

 

No! No more indepth! There are enough indepth scenarios already! ;) I would have been mollified if he had chosen less numbers when telling the Shaido story. The too large army made me not see the scenes but distrust the probability of said Shaido Story. ;) That part of the Gleeman yarn seems to be the one where the gleeman was falling down drunk. Don't make sense. !  :o  ;D

[WWWwombat]

We're told that Caemlyn is a city of about 300,000 people.  Using 17th century farming methods, you'd need 3 million farmers ( that includes their families ) just to supply the needs of that one city.

 

I really doubt that you'd need 10 farmers for every other person.

[magnutz]

We're told that Caemlyn is a city of about 300,000 people.  Using 17th century farming methods, you'd need 3 million farmers ( that includes their families ) just to supply the needs of that one city.

 

I really doubt that you'd need 10 farmers for every other person.

 

3 million farmers - that included their families which was mentioned in the same post. ;) so, think 1 farmer 3 additional family members: 3.000.000/4= 750000 farmer+family units. 750.000/300.000 = 2,5. :) still too many maybe but.. anyway.

[WWWwombat]

The point is, I don't think you'd need 91% of the populace to be involved in agriculture.  I would guess no more than 80%.

[Muad Cheade]

You all make me laugh !!  I love this series very much, dont get me wrong I know you all do as well, otherwise you wouldn't argue so much about it.  At his core, Jordan was a master entertainer.  He was a gleeman.  What does Thom always say, that he can make feel like you are the hero, smell, see and live in his tales.  These books are bogged down enough with useless drivvel (i.e. womens cloths).  Are you trying to say he should have been MORE indepth?  A good entertainer tells the story that wants to be heard.  More information about numbers, farms, "logistics" while maybe interesting in an academic sense is NOT good story. 

 

I can see there there are a few people who know enough about the logistics side of our own history and war.  For you few, what would you have rather had.  A lush immersive world that you could feel a part of, or a history book listing dull figures with no soul or spirit?

 

No! No more indepth! There are enough indepth scenarios already! ;) I would have been mollified if he had chosen less numbers when telling the Shaido story. The too large army made me not see the scenes but distrust the probability of said Shaido Story. ;) That part of the Gleeman yarn seems to be the one where the gleeman was falling down drunk. Don't make sense. !  :o  ;D

 

You have to remember that the Shaido brought their entire clan, warriors (too lazy to write the Old Tongue name), blacksmiths, women, children, etc. That is why their number is so high.

[magnutz]

You all make me laugh !!  I love this series very much, dont get me wrong I know you all do as well, otherwise you wouldn't argue so much about it.  At his core, Jordan was a master entertainer.  He was a gleeman.  What does Thom always say, that he can make feel like you are the hero, smell, see and live in his tales.  These books are bogged down enough with useless drivvel (i.e. womens cloths).  Are you trying to say he should have been MORE indepth?  A good entertainer tells the story that wants to be heard.  More information about numbers, farms, "logistics" while maybe interesting in an academic sense is NOT good story. 

 

I can see there there are a few people who know enough about the logistics side of our own history and war.  For you few, what would you have rather had.  A lush immersive world that you could feel a part of, or a history book listing dull figures with no soul or spirit?

 

No! No more indepth! There are enough indepth scenarios already! ;) I would have been mollified if he had chosen less numbers when telling the Shaido story. The too large army made me not see the scenes but distrust the probability of said Shaido Story. ;) That part of the Gleeman yarn seems to be the one where the gleeman was falling down drunk. Don't make sense. !  :o  ;D

 

You have to remember that the Shaido brought their entire clan, warriors (too lazy to write the Old Tongue name), blacksmiths, women, children, etc. That is why their number is so high.

 

True, that. But the totally ... big wad of Shaido, pouring out of the Wastelands.. They should have flattened everything.. Oh, well. I still love the books, and I also love to discuss these things. It keeps me going on. It makes me read in other ways. Can't wait to read TGS! :)