Death Note Mafia! Game On!

[mnwhiterose]

For once, I have nothing.  I am just shocked at the death toll.  That is depressing.  Need something sweet.

[CUBAREY]

Okay so it looks like to Kiras and a serial killer working at night. we definately have to lynch one of them today to have any chance of winning.

[cosmicpanda]

will somebody please explain what a kira is and how it's different to an SK? I'm lost

 

???

 

 

[Talya]

Ouch! thats a lot for the first night.

 

Pandy, Kira is the one with the deathnote, Cuba thinks there maybe more than one. If you read the wiki on Death note it may help.

 

Looking at that, someone actually physically killed Meesh, that sounds like a serial killer for sure, where as the other too are an accident and a heart attack. My first though on reading that was DJ was the target of a death note, but that peace was maybe his lover and died because DJ died. I'm not saying that is what happened, but what I thought when I read it.

Plus they were both investigators of some sort, could it be L's team?

 

 

[mnwhiterose]

So called it.  I just *knew* DJ was part of a lovers team (okay, had him matched with the wrong partner).  Either that, or one of them was a bomb. 

 

But, yes.  Need to find Kira.

[Thorum]

I'll reveal  ;D

 

Haven't done that since very long  :D

 

I am a finder - as was Mynd with me - and know with 75% certainty that Vemy is Misasan.

 

According to wikipedia:

Tsugumi Ohba' date=' writer of Death Note, decided to create Misa to be the second Kira[/quote'].

 

So Vemy is probably a second person with a nightkill possibility. Or maybe the day kill.

[Thorum]

Oh yes, [glow=red,2,300]Vemy[/glow]

[Talya]

Ok I'm a little confused.

 

Rose, you say this earlier:

 

For once, I have nothing.  I am just shocked at the death toll.  That is depressing.  Need something sweet.

 

Then you say that you know DJ had a lover, how? And why didn't you say something in the post, where you say you have nothing. But then you say this after my post.

 

So called it.  I just *knew* DJ was part of a lovers team (okay, had him matched with the wrong partner).  Either that, or one of them was a bomb. 

 

But, yes.  Need to find Kira.

 

Thorum, So you were working with Mynd? Why only 75% sure. Is that to cover your back, Not that we have anyway of  confirming you are right or not.

[Thorum]

75% sure because that's the certainty that was in Danya's initial pm to me.

 

Yes, Mynd was finder in the same "group" as me. I am Chief Yagami, and Mynd was Matsuda.

[Talya]

Please bear with me on this, but isn't Misa, on Kira's team, she is devoted to Light, If I understand Wiki right. Surely that team would only get one night kill, I would have thought that if Kira (Light) gets lynch or killed somehow then one of the others take over the death note?

 

Also could there be another group, Yotsuba Group. reading about them they are like a industrial mafia team, that also have a death note to get rid of competitors, so they may have the daytime death. Please tell me if I have this wrong, I'm not sure of it at all.

 

So that means you are part of an investigation team. With one dead, was it wise to come out?

 

Does any of this sound plausable?

[mnwhiterose]

Ok I'm a little confused.

 

Rose, you say this earlier:

 

For once, I have nothing.  I am just shocked at the death toll.  That is depressing.  Need something sweet.

 

Then you say that you know DJ had a lover, how? And why didn't you say something in the post, where you say you have nothing. But then you say this after my post.

 

So called it.  I just *knew* DJ was part of a lovers team (okay, had him matched with the wrong partner).  Either that, or one of them was a bomb. 

 

But, yes.  Need to find Kira.

 

 

I had said a number of pages back that by the way DJ and Mynd were arguing, they sounded like lovers in the middle of a spat.  I was joking of course.  Then, after your post and re-reading the rules, thought that DJ's death and Peace's death were similar to a lover's team death. Just reiterating what you had said, really.  So, I had already called out DJ as being a part of a lover's team, just had him paired with the wrong person.  Or, my other theory, is that one of them was a bomb character, was taken out by someone else who had died in Night 1, and the other was a random kill by another player.

 

It's all logical thinking, really.

[Vemynal]

first off- if innocent thorums wrong, if not then thorums mafia

 

I'll be straight up, my roles not necessarily good but I'm not on the evil team either, I'm Sidoh from the manga/anime and a Shinigmai.

 

I either side with Kira(mafia) or I side with Mello(good guys? eh he worked with Near to catch Kira and was a disciple of L so im assuming >.>), thing is i have to *FIND* them first.

 

I have a 1 shot vig kill that i can only use once i find mello or kira. but in the mean time I have the ability to view 1 person every night phase but with a 50% fail rate (I'm not given info if i fail). I'm given full role and name if im successful (thank u shinigami eyes^^)

 

I haven't found Mello or Kira yet, because i viewed Dark Justice last night and he was L  :(

 

Now, Mynd mentioned having only a 50% finder ability and I only have a 50% finder ability. Mynd didn't say but if I'm wrong i don't get results (danya told me so herself). And its not exactly like mynd can come in here and verify that thorum was on his team, he could just have a bad finding or he could be mafia trying to get us to waste our last lynch.

 

Now honestly? at this point u might wanna consider killing me anyways just because odds are Mello may have died already  :(

 

but i really hope for ur sakes then that someone has a night kill or a mafia member has died already

 

 

oh and rose, *IF* ur right about the lovers role and since DJ was L then Peace was likely Watari  :(

[Thorum]

Please bear with me on this, but isn't Misa, on Kira's team, she is devoted to Light, If I understand Wiki right. Surely that team would only get one night kill, I would have thought that if Kira (Light) gets lynch or killed somehow then one of the others take over the death note?

 

Also could there be another group, Yotsuba Group. reading about them they are like a industrial mafia team, that also have a death note to get rid of competitors, so they may have the daytime death. Please tell me if I have this wrong, I'm not sure of it at all.

 

Does any of this sound plausable?

 

I don't think there exists something like a "Kira team", just Kira as one player. And Misa as another. The confirmation of which identity would be very helpfull (maybe a role comparable to a symp with a lynching ability?). She would definitaly want to protect Kira.

 

Of course, if anyone has found Kira ...

 

Three guesses how I get to 75% if I'm in a team :D

 

So, Vemy, you can choose whether you're a good or a bad guy? Well, if the 1/4 is true.

[Vemynal]

i dont get to choose, more like which team i join is an accident

 

And as for what u said, that means u have another team mate who has a 50% finder ability, and u urself have 50%. if you boh viewed 1 person, you have 75% chance of *one of u* getting a positive result

 

thats:

 

Fail Fail

Fail True

True Fail

True True

 

you actually only have a 1/4th chance urself to get a accurate finding, because if 1 of u gets an inaccurate response then u can't know which is right

 

and thats *if* ur telling the truth

[CUBAREY]

My guess is that Thorum is right on Vemy. SO[glow=red,2,300]vote Vemy[/glow].

Misa was a simp of Light and a sometimes Kira herself so it would fit.

 

Now if I am not mistaken, in the story Kira kills are either accidents (if Kira writes cause of death in DeathNote)00 book or heart attack if a cause of death is notspecified.

 

the DJ and peacesells deaths definately sound like they were L and Wateri which would explain why they both died. That accounts for one death. The second Night death sounds like L's nemises the perfect Serial Killer (forget his name in the story).

 

We also have to account for Mynd's death during the day (I presume a second Kira).

[Thorum]

i dont get to choose, more like which team i join is an accident

 

And as for what u said, that means u have another team mate who has a 50% finder ability, and u urself have 50%. if you boh viewed 1 person, you have 75% chance of *one of u* getting a positive result

 

thats:

 

Fail Fail

Fail True

True Fail

True True

 

you actually only have a 1/4th chance urself to get a accurate finding, because if 1 of u gets an inaccurate response then u can't know which is right

 

and thats *if* ur telling the truth

 

tNice staistic.

 

We both made a statistic mistake: it is not 75%, nor 25% chance we are both correct. It was too simplistic.

 

There is indeed, over 44 chances (I'll explain later why)

 

11 true true

11 false true

11 true false

11 false false

 

If Danya gives false info, she probably gives random false info. There are 11 players in the game with random roles (15 - us three - the true one).

 

Which means that, of the 11 false false results, only one would give us the same viewing from Danya.

 

Still with me? That was the hard part.

 

Now we know we both have the same result. Which leaves us with 12 possibilities (the rest would give us different results): the eleven true true combinations (aka Vemy = Misa), and the one false false combination where we both get the same name as "false".

 

Which makes it a 11/12 or 91,6666 % chance Vemy = Misa.

 

See what that post made me do, Vemy :D. It made me actually think about statistics.

[Thorum]

To make the numbers clearer, I've created a Google spreadsheet to show them. You can find it right here.

 

Can someone tell me if this really works?

[ChronoCrosS]

That looks good from what I can tell. Although I may have missed something from the insane amount of long posts that are going on. But I agree with Thorum. So [glow=red,2,300]Vote Vemy[/glow]. Also, does anyone know how many Kiras there are?

[Vemynal]

w/e, i have class and we've obviously lost this game anyways

 

gl guys cuz ur gonna need a miricle

[Liathiana]

You're not a goner yet Vemy, don't give up so quickly.

[Jeran]

So here is what I am seeing in the last couple of pages:

 

I'll reveal  ;D

Haven't done that since very long  :D

I am a finder - as was Mynd with me - and know with 75% certainty that Vemy is Misasan.

 

I'll be straight up, my roles not necessarily good but I'm not on the evil team either, I'm Sidoh from the manga/anime and a Shinigmai.

 

I haven't found Mello or Kira yet, because i viewed Dark Justice last night and he was L  :(

 

Thorum claims that Vemy is Misasan.

Vemy claims that he is Sidoh.

 

I believe Vemy and here's why.  My character is Near.  At first I had no special abilities, but was told that if L died I would become a finder.  Last night Danya told me that L died and now I do have the finding ability.  Since Vemy's claim of Dark Justice being L agrees with what I know to be facts I tend to believe him.

 

Thorum's claim has no substantiation to it and relies upon a dead character for back up.  I think Thorum is lying to try and get another lynch on an innocent, or at least a neutral.  It's better to vote a guilty person instead of neutral.

 

[glow=red,2,300]Vote: Thorum[/glow]

 

I'm revealing now because I'm worried the game could be over before I get a chance to use any finding information.

 

[mnwhiterose]

I don't know if I want to take my chances that Vemy could end up being a good guy or bad guy.  I mean - you are or you aren't.  I don't believe there are shades of gray in a mafia game.  And I don't want to wake up one day because mafia wanted me dead and Vemy was the one to do it.

 

[glow=red,2,300]Vemy[/glow]

[Jeran]

Why not?  There could be anything the moderator dreams up.  Besides, at this point I am convinced that Thorum is guilty so I'll take what I consider a guarantee over a hypothetical.

[mnwhiterose]

You raise a good point.  And with Death Note - I suppose there could be shades of gray.  But still don't like the idea of someone being able to flip like that.

[Vemynal]

You're not a goner yet Vemy, don't give up so quickly.

 

ur's and Jeran's posts give me hope for surviving the day yes, but look at this rationally:

 

We had 15 people, *5 of them died before day 2*.

 

we had a lycnh, a daykill, and *3 night kills*

 

we have 10 people left- if Jeran's right about activated roles that means we might have a mikami as well and a mello and a near.

 

so thats possibly 3 or 4 evils out there, meaning they win at 6 or 8 people left, 1 lynch and 3 night kills later thats 6 people left and the mafia win tomorrow unless we get a mafia kill. that buys us only 1 additional day at: 6 people left with 2 or 3 mafia. If im right and the mafia have 4 members atm we've lost no matter what. if im wrong and they have 3 members now then we have to kill a mafia member every day for the rest of the game

 

with no information from cornoer reports  :(

 

 

 

oh and guys- i think i know who mello is now ^_^, so tonight if im right then ill be on ur side (at the very least ill lose with the innocents rather then lose without any chance of winning XD)