Morgase and Elayne

[Mr Ares]

What claim she has towards the TR? Simple. It's her land. Her sovereign territory. And they wouldn't know what they owe. But that's beside the point. They don't get something for nothing, nor does the rest of Andor.

No it's not her land. Andor has "claimed" the Two Rivers. Andor does not meet the requirements of sovereignty by holding and having effective control over the area and populace. That's like comparing the UK still has a claim over the USA or the rest of the Commonwealth.

It remains hers. The UK has surrendered sovereignty over those countries traitors. It is her sovereign territory until she secedes it.

 

And if we go with your lapse of time arguement for the Seanchan, well how long has it been since the Two Rivers has had a detachment of Tax collectors or Queen's Guard to keep the peace?

 

200 years!

Lapse of time was something of a joke, but there is a tiny difference between 200 years! and 1,000 years!

 

So what tomorrow she's just going to drop by and say she's their "Rightful" and "Lawful" Queen?

No, she'll wait until she doesn't have something more important (like TG) hanging over her head, and then she'll deal with it. It's not a big problem. What would they gain from de jure independence? Nothing. So they can stay as they are, with de facto independence, or they can become a proper part of Andor. I doubt either side will be looking for a fight right after TG, so they can come to an arrangement (no Manetheren, for example).

 

Not even Baerlon with all its relative wealth is governed in Andor's name. The area and populace has been essentially self-governed for nearly 200 years. Does Andoran law supercede the laws of Baerlon and the various villages in the region because someone a couple of hundred leagues to the east says it does?

In law, yes. In fact? No. At the moment, anyway.

 

"I've taken your Queendom and now I'm going to pretend to be generous by giving you back what was yours already." Elayne has every right to be pissed off in that situation. Maybe Rand should have chosen his words with more care.

 

The Queendom wasn't hers to take either. It was hers to earn. Remember she had to be voted in by a majority of Houses. Plus House Trakand has only kept the throne for one generation i.e. Morgase, and she got it by smart politicking, not by her inherent rightful blood claim through Ishara or the previous ruling family.

Morgase won her throne by winning the war. That makes her legal Queen, once the Houses support her. Elayne is Daughter-Heir. The throne is hers upon her mothers absence. However, the unusual circumstances of the time (her prolonged absence, Gaebril, Rand, House politics, etc.) she needed the support of the Houses. There isn't much point having succession laws if even a clear heir is passed over in the normal course of things. I wouldn't have thought a Succession is normal.

 

Likely is not certain. There is a lot of Two Rivers girls of high potential that are currently enrolled in the Tower. Internal politics of the WT could stop Andor cold in any actions against the TR.

By? Andor, building up for a war (*sniggers*) with TR will be frightened by several Novices? What's the Tower going to do? If they want to get involved, send full Sisters.

 

As for Mat, there's insufficient evidence that he'll go to the Empire and re-conquer it for Tuon. With TG so close and his op against the Snakes & Foxes there's a greater argument that he'll stay in Westland.

At the moment, yes. I'm not suggesting he go to Seanchan now. But he doesn't have the time now. After TG, he will have the time, unless he goes to Seanchan. Action against the TR is unlikely to be taken until after TR. When he could be nice and occupied over in Seanchan. Or just too far away to get there in time.

 

Ever heard of smuggling? Plus Traveling from Asha'man, since they would be the TR natural allies, effectively nullifies any custom duties plus any military aggression.

So who is going to be smuggling to a bunch of dirt farmers? They're not rich. In any prolonged conflict, they'll need outside funds. Who is going to supply this money? When? Why? What do they hope to gain? Trade concessions? A mutual defence pact? And why should the BT support the TR? Because they both happen to be in Andor? If a move was made against the BT, they would protect themselves just fine without any outside help, unless the move was made by AS. A LOT of AS. What do they have to gain from any such alliance? Rand wouldn't order them to support them before TG, because he is trying to distance himself from them. After TG, it's uncertain whether he will be in any position to order them about. Logain might do it out of the goodness of his heart, if he gets the BT after Taim. Taim is a DF, and so would do it if it helped the Shadow's plans. But there is unlikely to be any sort of fight until long after TG, so Taim is a non-factor.

 

Burn their crops and fields? Jesus... Ever heard of an insurgency? Or better yet Revolution? It was real popular in the across the Atlantic. And last time I checked Ireland was a Republic regardless of the wishes of the English nobility and Anglo-Irish landowners.

A Revolution? The TR is three villages a few farms. There a few orders of magnitude difference between that and Ireland. Burn their crops and they may revolt but more importantly THEY WILL STARVE. If a country the size and strength of Andor can't pacify a revolt in 3 piss-poor villages then they don't deserve to keep them. Just send in the army, butcher them in their sleep and send the survivors away. Then, repopulate with loyal subjects. It's not a war, it's couple of weeks work, done right. That's just one possible solution. If Andor really wanted to bring the TR under control, what the hell can they do to stop them? Not a damn thing.

 

You're basing your analysis that every action she can take is in a vacuum:

I'm not. I'm basing my analysis on  thr unimportance of the TR and the unlikelihood of a war breaking out because of it. You are basing your analysis on lots of people being happy to get involved in a conflict over some poor soil and the poor people that farm that soil.

 

1. Perrin is ta'veren. The last time a nation tried to take on a ta'veren of note they got conquered (Hawkwing).

He is now. He won't always be. He also won't always be in the TR.

 

2. Faile has deep connections in the Borderlands. Do you really think she won't use them?

Would she care that much about three villages in someone elses country when she has her own to rule? It could be done before she even heard about it. Is the TR worth Saldaea going to war over?

 

3. That other nations and organisations won't get involved in the conflict. There's a lot of people who'll atleast look the other way if not actively help TR just because Elayne is Aes Sedai and that the 3 ta'veren were born (raised in Rand's case) there.

There's also a lot of people who would support Elayne, or just look the other way because of the three ta'veren, or other reasons (realpolitik). How many countries do you really think are going to get involved and start a war over three villages? That displays an incredible ignorance of politics. Why would the Seanchan get involved? King Darling of Tear spent how long in rebellion against Rand? Not to mention that they would support any action to bring a "rebellious province" under control as they could then cast any action against Mayene in the same light: just dealing with internal affairs, you didn't get involved when Andor did the same". Cairhien? Current plan is to make it Elayne's as well. Borderlands? Don't they have anything more important (and closer) to worry about? Illian? Why should Stepanneos care? Who is going to get involved and start a war over three villages wanting to be their own country?

 

Mr Ares wants me to construct a scene with Elayne facing Rhavin and winning.

No he doesn't. He wants you to admit that it would not be impossible for Elayne to defeat Rahvin if it came to a fight, or provide a reason why it would be. Not just difficult, or unlikely, impossible. Admit it's possible or proove it impossible. Not hard.

 

There is little need for evidence for the obvious. It is very very likely that Elayne is on a much weaker level than Rhavin in the One Power. Demanding direct evidence when there is sufficient indirect proof is just plain stubborn. We can't speculate anything on this forum if you want 100% proof for every tiny detail.

Again, it's "very, very likely" because you say so. Not because of any proof, or even any evidence. Because you say so. And you've already admitted you're not RJ, so why the hell should I take what you say as evidence of anything other than what you believe? Not evidence of every tiny detail, just some evidence at all would be nice.

[Lille]

Just to throw it into the discussion, its very unlikely Elayne is close to Rahvin in strength. Men are usually stronger than females in the one power, Nynaeve is equal in strength to Moghedien, Moghedien and Rahvin are both forsaken and its likely that Rahvin are the stronger of the two, but lets just say they are of equal strength since i can't prove they are not. Moiraine says in tGH that Nynaeve is like a bonfire compared to Elaynes candle. How then can Elayne be Rahvins equal?

 

Also how would Elayne know Gaebril was really Rahvin?

[Mr Ares]

The average male strength sits slightly higher than the average female, and maximum sits slightly higher as well. Women make up for lesser strength with greater dexterity, so it balances out. But I don't see why we should automatically assume Rahvin is stronger than Moggy. Lanfear is stronger, for sure, and Graendal rarely found men stronger than her so she could be as well. We don't know much about Moghedien's strength, nor Rahvin's. I don't see why it is "likely" that someone whose strength is unknown to us is stronger than someone else whose strength is also unknown to us. Possible, certainly. Let's say, for the sake of argument, that Moggy stands as high above Rahvin as Nyneave does above Elayne. How can they not be equals?

 

She doesn'tneed to know it's Rahvin. Rumours of her mothers out of character actions could lead to a suspicion of foul play. Combined with knowledge that the Chosen are free, she could just be on her guard and get lucky in the ensuing fight.

[RAND AL THOR]

What in the seven hells is the point of being an all-powerful Forsaken who led the armies of the DO in the Age of Legends and whose name was remembered for 3000 years if that Forsaken can be beaten and abruptly killed by a person far less experienced and far younger merely due to a twist in chance? Theres only so much chance twisting that anyone can take.

 

I never said that it is impossible for Elayne to beat Rhavin. I continued to express my view that it is 98% impossible. While you, MR Ares, are arguing for the much lower-chanced possibility it does seem somewhat amusing.

[scotthunt]

I think Egwene is one of the best and strongest characters in the books. She stands by her beliefs and works at what needs to be done. But that is beside the point. Morgase and Elayne. I think Elayne is not at brat either as she has been thinking and acting as she should considering she has Rands twins. Morgase is a little different. She has been through a great ordeal and is now having to hide it from the people who would probably save her and take her straight to Rand so she can sort out all this confusion with him etc. She also is determined like when she use the small amount of power she has to make the flag move to call for help for Faile and the rest.

[Mr Ares]

What in the seven hells is the point of being an all-powerful Forsaken who led the armies of the DO in the Age of Legends

Except Rahvin governed conquered territories, he didn't lead armies. He also made gains through diplomacy. He wasn't a soldier. And what (in the seven hells!!) was the point of Moggy being "an all-powerful Forsaken Chosen who led (some of) the armies spies of the DO Shai'tan in the Age of Legends and whose name was remembered for 3,000 years if that Forsaken Chosen can be beaten and abruptly killed made into a captive by a person far less experienced and far younger...?"

[Bob T Dwarf]

To edge back toward the main idea of this thread -

 

Elayne's got her hands full.  Andor still needs some settling down.  There's that stash of all kinds of artifacts of Power.  Then there's babies.  Oh, and a little thing called Tarmon Gaidon.

 

Morgase is an experienced and capable monarch.  There's this throne sitting vacant in Cairhien.  Since she's already abdicated in Andor, and since Elayne, as pointed out above, is kinda busy for the foreseeable future, and since she is Taringail's widow, she might be a pretty good choice for that job.

 

Moiraine would make an excellent Court Advisor, and Moiraine's likely new husband might make an acceptable Court-Bard.

[Snowy Dawn]

Mr. Ares writes (re: the Two Rivers and the Queen of Andor):

 

``They don't get something for nothing, nor does the rest of Andor.''

 

Um.. Just what is it that they have gotten so far? At least over the past two centuries? The Queen's Guard hasn't ventured West of Whitebridge in a long time. If Caemlyn is to tax the Two Rivers, then there has to be that something.

 

 

[CUBAREY]

Since she's already abdicated in Andor, and since Elayne, as pointed out above, is kinda busy for the foreseeable future, and since she is Taringail's widow, she might be a pretty good choice for that job.

 

 

Why? even if we are only looking at the Demodred claiments both Moirraine and her cousin have a better claim to the thrown. Yes she's Taringail's widow but he died 15 years ago and she has had a series of lovers since. Elaiyne makes since because she is not only Taringail's hier (actually as to Cairhern Galad has the more senior claim) but she was supported by the Dragon Reborn.  Morgase will be unable to use Andor's army to back her claim, she does not have the Dragon Reborn's backing and she is an outsider.  Galad would have a much easier time if Elaiyne doesn't persue her claim, Morgase on the other hand would be one of the  weaker claiments.

[Bob T Dwarf]

Ah, but that's the point.

 

Rand has in mind to make Elayne ruler of both Andor and Cairhien.  Andor, Elayne has now taken care of for herself, but Cairhien is still to be dealt with.  Since, as I say, Elayne is gonna be kinda busy, it would make the most sense for Rand to back Morgase instead.

[Safia al-Maaz]

To comment on the strengths in powers idea, Rahvin gave Rand a run for his money in Andor, which means he is pretty powerful, whereas Rand handled Egwene and Elayne "like kittens" at the same time in Tear before he even had his full strength and control.  Therefore I think there is a pretty good chance Rahvin would totally destroy Elayne, though Elayne is tenatious enough maybe she could pull it off.

 

As for the main idea of this thread, I think Elayne is behaving too recklessly lately because she is secure behind Min's viewing that she will be fine until her babies are born.  Perhaps she is just taking advantage of the luck of her situation, but it simply causes everybody else stress, so I think she could tone that down a bit.  Otherwise, I think she is behaving like a queen should. 

 

Morgase on the otherhand, is demonstrating much of the Trakand stubborness, not necessarily unaccounted for, but still a little annoying.  Considering her current position as "dead queen and lady's maid" i don't think she'll be stepping up for the throne of Cairhien very soon.  I don't think she would receive any support either.  People would only remember her most recent behavior under Rahvin's control, which is highly unsatisfactory, and even if they did know it wasn't her fault, they wouldn't want a queen so "easily manipulated".  Rand I'm sure would back Elayne if she chose to take the Sun Throne, but I don't think he'll push it, if only not to piss her off :P  Even if he did back Morgase, it would probably end up being a monarch forced on the people like the other's he's placed in.  Then again, that's kind of what happened to Darlin and he's supposed to do well, so anything could happen...

[Bob T Dwarf]

With the exception of Elayne, everybody Rand has plumped up has been imposed.

 

Now Dobraine is doing a great job, and I'd guess he'd make a wonderful Chancellor, but Cairhien, maybe more than anyplace else needs a competent and able monarch.  They've had such complete lice for a couple of generations now.  All Damodreds, too.

 

Somebody needs to out Morgase first.  And, then Rand needs to learn she's still alive.  And, then probably, TG has to be fought.  But in the end, Morgase would be a good choice.

[Snowy Dawn]

``Since, as I say, Elayne is gonna be kinda busy, it would make the most sense for Rand to back Morgase instead.''

 

But back her as what? As Elayne's regent in Cairhien, I suspect. This keeps Morgase out of Caemlyn---so as to lessen the chance that her reappearance will weaken Elayne's position as the new Queen of Andor. You can imagine how Ellorien, and perhaps some of the other high seats, would react if Morgase reappears as Elayne's advisor in Caemlyn. At the same time, it secures Elayne's position in Cairhien. Morgase has already vowed to be her daughters obedient subject: she is not going to usurp the Sun Throne. As for Thom, he is going to marry Moraine, and will go where she does. (Combine her letter to Thom, as we read it in <i>Knife of Dreams</i>, together with her insistence, after she goes thru' the doorframe in the Stone, about knowing who she will marry.) So unless Moraine becomes Elayne's advisor....

 

Perhaps Dobraine will stay on as Rand's steward in Cairhien, but working with Morgase. Perhaps the civil war in Cairhien has persuaded enough of the Damodreds, Riatins and such that they ought to accept Elayne to keep Morgase, acting as her regent from having to engage in kidnapping and assassination to keep Cairhien in line. (See Moraine's reasons for not wanting to be Queen, as explained to Siuan in <i>New Spring</i>, page 173, the hardcover edition.)

 

So far as an advisor goes, presumable Egwene may want to send an Aes Sedai from among those in the camp by Dragonmount, or perhaps Dyelin or even Birgitte or both will be willing to serve. They bicker with one another, but their advice (and actions) has served her fairly well so far. Does she really need an Aes Sedai advisor to maintain Caemlyn's link to the White Tower? After all, she can be that link herself.

 

[Bob T Dwarf]

No, the advisory role I was suggesting for Moiraine would be for Morgase in Cairhien.

 

Yeah, having Thom around might be awkward at first, but they're both adults and admire each others intellect and competence, so I don't think it'd be any kind of real obstacle.

 

Thankfully, Elayne has already sent the "Advisor" Elaida sent her packing.  I agree, she doesn't need any Aes Sedai to advise her.

[Bob T Dwarf]

We can hardly expect the nobles to believe Rand if he popped up, killed their 'king' and then declared that the king he had just killed was one of the legendary forsaken.

 

So the nobles have some right to their behaviour.

 

But Elayne knows full well that the Forsaken are free and there is little excuse for her immediate reaction.

 

I ran across this from KoD

... He had stayed clear of the Borderlanders because Elayne did not welcome his help - interference, she called it, and he had begun to see that she had the right of it; the Lion Throne was hers to gain, not his to give - ...

 

Elayne really isn't as horrible as you'd thought. 

[Safia al-Maaz]

Exactly.  Elayne is no idiot.  Rand just gets ahead of himself when trying to do good deeds.  Elayne probably eventually understood that, after spending a little *cough* quality time? with him  :P 

 

And Elayne had better send Elaida's advisor packing, I'd have to kill her if she didn't... I hate Elaida, she's freakin psychotic...

[Bob T Dwarf]

Aint she just.  Lives in her own world.  Not a lot of contact with reality.

 

That's why I get upset when people start going on about how crazy Rand is.  His problems stem from too much contact with reality.  He needs a little gaga time to get him back on balance.  Some pleasant daydream that doesn't involve any of the real problems he's wrestling with.

 

But, back to Morgase and Elayne ( and also Galad and Gawyn ) big thorny knots there that need to be untied in some satisfactory way.  Maybe Galad will encounter Perrin and get that process underway.

[Snowy Dawn]

``No, the advisory role I was suggesting for Moiraine would be for Morgase in Cairhien.''

 

Read in context, I can see that this was what you meant, but I did not read it that carefully. Sorry about that.

 

``Maybe Galad will encounter Perrin and get that process underway.''

 

Perrin et al are headed in the right direction (North)---it might make for a good scene if the wagons with Lini & Basel Gill encountered Galad first. The moment Galad and Morgase meet, if Perrin is there, is the moment Morgase's identity is revealed to  him, of course. But if Rand finds them first, Morgase will be on her way to Cairhien asap. Perrin has, of course, still got a job to do, namely settling with Masema. (That most of the Prophet's followers are dead or injured in the battle at Malden will not stop him from rebuilding his following, I think.) Then again if Galad encounters either Perrin or Morgase there will be trouble since most of the Whitecloaks will want to kill Morgase, and Dain Bornhald and Jaret Byar will want to kill Perrin. Galad will have to use his authority. Perhaps, because of Galad's duel with Valda, the Whitecloaks will not be so anxious to kill Morgase, esp. given that they are now aware that they need at least a short term alliance with the White Tower.