Ship Wreck Mafia - game thread-

[bcxanth]

Remember to send night actions to both myself and nephi.

 

And to clarify, Alys was a role-less innocent. :)

[Alys Kinch]

so glad to oblige you. i looked bad and had no way to refute. but it does appear that i can be lynched. have fun and good luck innocents.

[MsDanya]

okie...i'll try and remember to do that for you guys. *nods*

 

thanks bunches! its not to be demanding, but it makes it easier than having to count backwards and forwards and still not get it right  :P

 

 

[Guest nephitess]

LOL...no worries.

 

hummm....not much talk tonight.

[bcxanth]

Your night is filled with terrifying dreams of a shadowy figure approaching you, mocking you, and threatening you. The morning finds you sitting bolt upright on your bedding in a cold sweat, staring wild-eyed around you. Once again everyone rises from the spots they'd been sleeping to see what new horrors await you.  At first everything seems normal, then someone starts to ask, where is Danya? A search begins, and soon she's found on the beach, the tide barely touching her corpse. Not a mark appears on it, but she's very clearly dead.  As you gather around the corpse, once again the mocking laughter can be heard echoing on the wind.

 

Danya, a Tracker, has been killed.

*Note: This was the only Finder role in the game.

 

Still alive: Leelou, Kivam, Wes, Loki, Soyo, Talya, Naeann, and Kison.

 

With 8 alive, it takes 5 to lynch.

 

Day 4 ends on Tues Jan 22, at 8pm MST/10pm EST

[MsDanya]

dammit  :P

 

good luck people!

[DPR]

 

I'll be in a car all day and then back to a normal schedule tonight. My biggest instinct right now is screaming at me to stop second guessing the obvious. We have to be right today.

[Naeann]

Well my biggest instinct is screaming at me to vote [glow=red,2,300]Kison[/glow]... who tacked a vote on Alys to keep Kivam from a possible random lynch towards the end of the last day.

[Kison]

1) You have Alys herself saying she saw the justification behind going for her.

 

2) If you suspect I am scum simply because I saved Kivam, then in order for your logic to make any sense, you'd have to suspect Kivam of being scum in the first place. Why, then, do you jump ships?

 

3) I'd have much rather lynched one of my initial two suspects : Leelou or Talya - but the votes weren't there. Why? I think the case against both of them was pretty sound.

 

On that note, [glow=red,2,300]Leelou[/glow]

[Kivam]

Guys, if we have 3 evils than today is end-game, and so will every day from now on.  Is it time to put the odd-even rule into effect and vote no-kill?  If we're just guessing in the dark, I'd say so.

 

Anyway, here's my list:

 

 

Talya - I will not vote for her.  Has claimed healer without a counterclaim.

 

Leelou - I will not vote for her.  She defended Talya, who we know from lack of a counterclaim is the healer, when it looked like Talya was vulnerable to a lynch.  Oddly enough, my two top suspects are now the two I'm most convinced are innocent.

 

That leave Wes, Loki, Kison, Naeann and Boyo.  Kison and Nae are suddenly pointing at each other without having Kison vote Nae.  An innoculation vote just in case we get close?

 

Loki stayed after Barm even after he was clearly an innocent.

 

So did Naeann.

 

Wes strikes me as innocent - nothing I can put my finger on, though.

 

I have no reading at all on Boyo, who's played a very quiet game, which gives me a little bit of pause.

 

Between Loki, Kison, Nae and Boyo, I'm going to go with [glow=red,2,300]Loki[/glow], for sticking with Barm and then staying under the radar.  If enough people are willing, I'll also vote no-kill

 

 

 

 

[Kison]

No-kill might be the best bet at this point, but who's to say we don't have 4 scum instead of 3?

[Kivam]

No-kill might be the best bet at this point, but who's to say we don't have 4 scum instead of 3?

 

Nobody, but I don't think its likely.  In a 12 player game, 4 mafia would be a seriously overpowered evil team (1/3 of the players

[Leelou]

I just got done with work and catching up a bit. Sorry Alys. I'll post shortly after I catch up with reading.

[loki redfern]

i stuck with barm because the only reason i could think of for  him knowing if other people had a role on the first day was was that he was evil ..not so 'clearly innocent' to the rest of us who didnt have the lovely flash of insight you did and then pointed that out. in fact what was your reason for that again the pointing out, but failing to tell us why becky would  know hmm 'why tell the evils if they didnt know' ...but you already pointed him  out to the anyway so that doent really hold now does it,  and as we saw it went under the healers radar, but not the evils .

 

and this like you said this is the endgame if there are three evils if there were 4 they would have already won (8 left right?) and if there are only  2 the endgame wouldnt be until day 5, but  in a game this size i very much doubt there would only be two so were really need to get an evil today otherwise were screwed.

and kivam darling you havent had a very good track record this game have you ..vemy of the bat there, then you got barm night killed, and i seem to remeber you voting talya quite a lot but as soon as she reveals you stop and believe her? just like that? i still recon your a symp and your screaming 'lynch me so the evils can win'  and i dont think we should be listening to your attempts to direct this game to your pipers tune anymore at the very least

 

so i wont be voting for kivam right now but im going to go for [glow=red,2,300]Kison[/glow] because he seems the most likely candidate for an evil player and then decide on  kivam being symp or evil closer to the end after hes given us more info to analyse

[SBoydW]

Talya has voted for our only confirmed innocent, after he was confirmed innocent

 

Talyahas repeatedly justified her votes with badly flawed logic

 

Talyais evil

 

I'm not so sure I can trust your judgement in this game Kivam.

 

So going by that I'm going to go against your logic a bit and vote for Leelou.

 

 

 

 

[Guest nephitess]

you need to glow that vote Soyo.

 

Kison (1) Naeann, Loki

Leelou (1) Kison

Loki (1) Kivam

 

[glow=red,2,300]Day ends Tuesday @ 8PM MST. 50 hours. I think :P [/glow]

 

[Kivam]

Talya has voted for our only confirmed innocent, after he was confirmed innocent

 

Talyahas repeatedly justified her votes with badly flawed logic

 

Talyais evil

 

I'm not so sure I can trust your judgement in this game Kivam.

 

So going by that I'm going to go against your logic a bit and vote for Leelou.

 

 

 

Yeah . . . well, all I can say is that without the reveal I'd still be voting Talya, since her logic has been badly flawed (no offense - you know I love you  :D)

 

But could you explain the logic of your Leelou vote a bit?  Why vote for the person who was defending Talya, if we know the evils knew Talya was the healer since night 1?

[DPR]

 

I agree that this is most likely endgame. I also expect everyone to put their best argument forward, including the evils.  :P

 

Like it or not, Kivam has been active in each argument and still seeks to influence the vote even though the idea of him being a symp has been discussed several times, including by Kivam, but is still generally ignored! Thus I do not want to lynch Kivam because  it would make sense for him to hide behind the obvious and taunt us into losing the game. I suspect that this has something to do with the setting that the mods have provided, and hope that the symp is the "shadowy character".

 

I agree that we have at least two more evils, and I further agree that we would have been given at least a hint, if not a full reveal, if the healer had been killed, and Talya's claim has not been countered, so there is no sense in voting for her.

 

That leaves five players to choose a probable three evils from: Myself, Kison, Loki, Leelou, Boyo, & Naeann.

 

At this point I have to vote for [glow=red,2,300]Kison[/glow].

 

Up until today he has played a straight forward, no-nonsense game and stuck with game winning tactics. But then he decided to vote on Leelou without really posting any evidence, even though some was available. For someone who has been so clear to dissemble now, at the endgame, is suspicious. And he seems to be in line with Kivam.

 

Kivam has posted his thoughts, and voted for Loki. To me, this is right in line with sympish behavior. Loki, and anybody, certainly could be evil, but nobody has focused on him yet and he seems to make a great diversion to focus on. Again, where is he evidence? The Barm vote was a stab in the dark, and everybody knows it. Then Kivam states that he feels I am innocent, but that could easily be because I have been the most active against him and it's easier to win an enemy over and try sway them towards your side. Then we hear about the dreaded "no-kill" vote. This is always a hot point of contention in the mafia world, and is argued against because it gives no information.

 

By my reasoning, out of five players, we have a excellent shot at hitting an evil! A no-kill vote idea just being introduced casually is such a bad idea that it immediately rang alarm bells in my head. On top of the alarms that Kivam has already raised.

 

But then,  Kison affirms the no-kill vote. This blows me away. This is not in line with how you've been playing, nor with evidence supporting game winning tactics Not good.

 

Then, Kivam posts next with the obvious answer to Kison's "how many evils could there be?" question.  Both of these players know how many evils there are, just like everybody else. Bad ideas followed by the hint of communication, with a 60% percent chance of hitting an evil? No way. Kison stands out, so that's who gets my vote as the most likely to be an evil.

 

Now, I'm tired and I'm coming off of a 12 hour drive, so I am open to arguments and logic. But at this point I did not want to just hang out and not vote. If i could ask for anything, i would love to see everyone's analysis of the situation. Please post!

[Guest nephitess]

Thank you for posting the plea for posts. I agree with DPR...please post people :)

[Kivam]

Wes, here's the thing on the no-kill vote:

 

There are 8 players left.  We have to assume 3 evil, since 4 evils would mean game over already (4e-4i = evils win).  2 evils would be severely underpowered. 

 

So, we can safely assume the current distribution is 5innocent and 3 evil

 

If we lynch an innocent today, its game over - 4innocents v. 3 evils, and the evils night kill someone to make it 3-3.

 

If we don't lynch, then the evils kill one of us, which makes it 4innocents v. 3 evils tomorrow - still end game, still "lynch the wrong one and lose" - but we'll be selecting from among fewer options, which means we'll have a better chance of getting it right. 

 

As you point out, the problem with a no-lynch is we don't gain information from it.  But if we lynch the wrong person today, we never get to use the information anyway (since the game will be over).

[DPR]

1. We don't know for sure that there are not 4 evils - In which case the wrong vote would be the end. We had three players bow out of the game after roles had been sent out, so we don't know for sure. Implying other wise is not being thorough.

 

2. If we vote "no-kill" today, that is as good as giving a free day to the evils to night kill one of us and make up for the apparent miss on night one with Talya. Hmmmmm.

 

We have at least a 3 in 8 (over 30% chance) in randomly selecting an evil, and a 3 in 6 (50% chance of randomly selecting an evil) if we count you as a symp (as suggested) and Talya as the logical healer.  Why counsel us away from the averages!

[DPR]

 

12 hour drive aside, I admittedly have lost count of how many players are on the board! Mods! Update the first page! My argument is @* without the proper number of players! Dayam!

[Kivam]

1. We don't know for sure that there are not 4 evils - In which case the wrong vote would be the end. We had three players bow out of the game after roles had been sent out, so we don't know for sure. Implying other wise is not being thorough.

 

2. If we vote "no-kill" today, that is as good as giving a free day to the evils to night kill one of us and make up for the apparent miss on night one with Talya. Hmmmmm.

 

We have at least a 3 in 8 (over 30% chance) in randomly selecting an evil, and a 3 in 6 (50% chance of randomly selecting an evil) if we count you as a symp (as suggested) and Talya as the logical healer.  Why counsel us away from the averages!

 

We know for sure there aren't 4 evils, because if there were 4 the game would be over (game ends when evils and innocents are equal in number).  I think that's true with a symp, too, but I don't know for sure - Nephi, if there were a symp and 3 evils in this game, would 3 evils, 1 symp & 4 innocents = game over?

 

As to the second question, because the averages get better if we wait.  Discounting Talya, there will be a 3 in 6 chance of hitting an evil (50% chance); if I survive the night (which I doubt I would) and you discount me, a 3/5 chance (60%).  No matter how you slice it, our odds improve by waiting (at least as far as I can tell).

 

Talya - a question.  Why didn't you protect Barm night 2?

[Guest nephitess]

DPR...I am sorry i had the list on page one updated for the number of players...but someone who shall remain nameless...went and messed it up.

 

Continue on people. 

 

Edit: yes it was me...something happened when i was editing that post i think..because i promise i edited that post. sorry.

[bcxanth]

Oh don't even try to blame me, I can't edit your post. :P

 

And Kivam, to answer your question, if there is a Symp in a game, they win with the evils. So yes, in that case the game would be over at a 3+1+4 situation.