Encounters

[RobertAlexWillis]

Something about the irony of him there, thinking he was this big bad dark dude, and Mashadar going "well, you know mate I'm fairly evil my ownself."

 

It was somewhat ironic, but mostly idiotic.  Sammael should never have gone near Shadar Logoth.  I'm hoping that Demandred will redeem the reputation of the Shadow's "generals".

 

I was truly dissapointed by Sammael ... he was supposed to be this expert in defense, as well as in personal combat.  If .... if he deliberately caused the floor to fall out from under Rand, then he gets ... a very small amount of credit.  But that was not how it read to me at all ...

 

Sammael had done quite well, I thought, right up until A Crown of Swords, where he turned into an idiot ... -sigh-

 

Sorry.  I'm getting off topic here.

 

I don't personally think that Graendal will precipitate a confrontation in a situation where she thinks Aviendha has any chance at all.  And I can't think of a way that Avi will "bump into her" where Graendal is not the first one to realize whats going on ... Graendal is quite accustomed to maintaining all but impregnable disguises pretty much all the time that she isn't in her home base.  And although her preferred method is not personal combat, she showed some bloody good reflexes for it with Cyndane and Moghedien.  She had them tied up in nice neat little bows until Shaidar Haran showed up.

 

When I'm talking about Aviendha hunting Graendal, I don't think that she will necessarily know it is Graendal that she is hunting.  For example, if the Aiel Wise Ones stumble across some of Graendal's Compelled victims, and discover that they've been channeled at, Aviendha could go out after "whoever is behind it", which just happens to be Graendal.  Especially if the victim of Compelling is an Aiel that Aviendha has some sort of relationship with ... its not outside the realm of possibility that ji'e'toh would force her to go after the perp.  And her chances go way up if she's armed and ready, whether she knows specifically that it is Graendal she's after or not.

 

RJ would have to give me a really good reason to believe that Aviendha could beat Graendal without getting the drop on her.

 

Now, this changes if Aviendha discovers some ter'angreal that she can always wear that gives her an advantage (such as the ones that caused Semirhage to get caught).  But really, that would be almost too convenient ...

 

On a side note, I agree with Mister Hindley.  If I was in charge, Elayne would be dead by now.  And Egwene would be dead at the hands of the Black Ajah too.  She's a sitting duck hopped up on forkroot like she is, and Ishy has seemingly known of both her importance and Elayne's since The Great Hunt.  What she has done with the Salidar Aes Sedai should have Moridin gunning for her, regardless of her relationship with Rand.  And given his orders regarding Perrin and Mat, he's not worried about killing people close to Rand.

 

Very dissapointing ...

[cloglord]

On the topic of Avhienda Vs. Graendal, I have a few things to add.  While I agree that the fact that neither individual has really had a show stopping scene could be indicative of an upcoming showdown, I am not completely conviced that it will or must happen.  What I have noticed is missing from this conversation is the fact that Avhienda has been given the dream Terangreal that does not require channeling in its use.  Since I can think of no good reason for Elayne to have given it to her, I am operating under the assumption that RJ made sure that Avhi had the ring for some reason yet to be revealed.  Since the Aiel Wise ones are the only organized group to exhibit a knowledge of TAR in the present age, I feel that it is quite possible that the element of suprise might come in the form of Avhienda being captured by Graendal, and then Avhienda calling in the reinforcements of Amys, Melaine, and/or Bair.  I could also see one of these three ending up dead in the encounter, and the defeat of a forsaken at the hands of an apprentice as grounds for "gradutation" to full wiseone hood.  Of course that is all speculation, but I think that at the very least, speculation on this topic should include some reason for why Avhienda has the twisted dream ring.

 

As for why one of the BA hasn't knocked off Egwene, there is clearly some plan, either Messanna's, Arangar's, or both that requires her to live.  Further it could be theorized that Moridin feels that the death of yet another Amrylin in the last 22 years would be the catalyst for the hunt for the BA.  Maybe her current visibility and position are protectying her where novice white did not.  Further, it could be for some other plan we have yet to see, maybe Egwene is supposed to destry the tower sisters completely, be killed, and then Lelaine could destroy the rebels with her dissention....We don't really know, and I think for the time I will reserve judgement.

 

As for Sammael, it was not his skill on the defense that failed him, it was his desire to serve his vengeance personally that undid him.  I think it was incredibly smart on his part to lure Rand to Shadar Logoth at night, it is about as danferous a place as there is.  Sammael's problem was that he stuck around to  see Rand die.  If he'd just lured Rand there, and then snuck off, I think that Rand could have very easily ended up dead.  The falling floor, a stray bit of Mashadar while trying to find Sammael, or even a botched attempt to save Liah, would have accomplished what Sammael failed to do.   

 

 

As convienient as some random channeling traveler showing up to take Mat to the tower of Ghenji?? ;)

[RobertAlexWillis]

As convienient as some random channeling traveler showing up to take Mat to the tower of Ghenji??

 

No, it would be much, much more "convenient".  At least Mat is an insanely lucky ta'veren.  There would be some excuse for him finding exactly what he needs, when he needs it.  And it wouldn't have to be "some random channeler" ... Mat can see Perrin (who has Travel-capable Asha'man with him) and Rand in the swirly colors, and they can both see him.  All it takes is one of them recognizing some place that the other is, and ... tada.

 

At least there is some rationale behind that.

[cloglord]

At the risk of becoming tangental,

 

All it takes is one of them recognizing some place that the other is, and ... tada.

 

Yeah, I recognize that wierd shaped tree out in the middle of nowhere that I am envisioning Mat sitting by, it looks WAY different than any other tree that's out here in the middle of nowhere, I'm glad that is such a recognizable place, so that I can go give Mat some help that I don't even know that he needs...

 

That is assuming that Mat needs any help at all.  What good is Tavreren need going to be, if it turns out that Mat could make the trip quite easily in the time left to him before TG?  Your assumption about the timeframe of AMoL, forces an assumption on you about the nature of Mat's need.  Personally I think it is a lot less suspiciously "convienient," if Mat makes the trip without having to resort to Taveren luck.

[Luckers]

Here's a thought - as several people have rightly pointed out, Aviendha doesn't know that Graendal is in Arad Domon. But on the flipside, does Graendal - or anyone for the dark - know in any meaningful way that Aviendha, a very powerful channeler, exists? Lanfear knows Aviendha, and had plenty of opportunity in the Waste to realise how strong Aviendha is (in today's terms, anyway). Would she have shared that knowledge? The other wondergirls, Egwene and Elayne, have fairly high profiles, and Nynaeve will be known by now from her efforts during the Cleansing. But Aviendha hasn't done much to capture the Dark One's notice, I'd imagine.

 

There are Wise Ones amongst the group in Arad Domon who are stronger than Aviendha. We even get introduced to two of them in Winter's Heart, Tamela and Viendre.

 

Remember, the Wise Ones are much more systematic about finding and training their girls. Supposedly they even find all of the Learners.

 

I don't personally think that Graendal will precipitate a confrontation in a situation where she thinks Aviendha has any chance at all.  And I can't think of a way that Avi will "bump into her" where Graendal is not the first one to realize whats going on ... Graendal is quite accustomed to maintaining all but impregnable disguises pretty much all the time that she isn't in her home base.  And although her preferred method is not personal combat, she showed some bloody good reflexes for it with Cyndane and Moghedien.  She had them tied up in nice neat little bows until Shaidar Haran showed up.

 

I think the most likely situation is that she comes accross Graendal in disguise--either Graendal is trying to influence things, or maybe they even end up at her manse. From there it may even been an accident. Sensing her channeling, or perhaps sensing a ter'angreal (is a streith a ter'angreal?). The point about this is that Graendal wouldn't expect it. Semirhage has had much more experience recently maintaining a disguise under close scruitainy of channelers and politicians and manipulators, and she got uncovered by something she never expected. The point is that it happens.

 

Additionally, Cyndane and Moghedian havn't been training their reflexes to react to a threat since girlhood. Aviendha has.

 

On a side note, I agree with Mister Hindley.  If I was in charge, Elayne would be dead by now.  And Egwene would be dead at the hands of the Black Ajah too.  She's a sitting duck hopped up on forkroot like she is, and Ishy has seemingly known of both her importance and Elayne's since The Great Hunt.  What she has done with the Salidar Aes Sedai should have Moridin gunning for her, regardless of her relationship with Rand.  And given his orders regarding Perrin and Mat, he's not worried about killing people close to Rand.

 

There is some reason for Egwene to stay alive in that she keeps the confrontation between the Towers alive--admittedly, at this stage i would have killed her, and used her death to incite the all out assault on the tower whilst making sure the Tower sisters were ready to react--bloodbath... but still, there is some reason.

 

Also, prior to VERY recent events, Elayne served the purpose of keeping the civil war in Andor at a boil, thus increasing chaos. But, in the after math of what occured id see her dead.

 

Since the Aiel Wise ones are the only organized group to exhibit a knowledge of TAR in the present age, I feel that it is quite possible that the element of suprise might come in the form of Avhienda being captured by Graendal, and then Avhienda calling in the reinforcements of Amys, Melaine, and/or Bair.  I could also see one of these three ending up dead in the encounter, and the defeat of a forsaken at the hands of an apprentice as grounds for "gradutation" to full wiseone hood.  Of course that is all speculation, but I think that at the very least, speculation on this topic should include some reason for why Avhienda has the twisted dream ring.

 

This is a nifty idea. I don't know if there is time for it, but yeah, I definately like it. Aviendha escapes her imprisonment when the Aiel attack the manse, and gets into a fight with Graendal. Yeah, I like this idea alot.

 

Though i would point out one issue--the stone ring doesn't allow access to dreams. She would have to find someone in TAR itself.

 

 

That is assuming that Mat needs any help at all.  What good is Tavreren need going to be, if it turns out that Mat could make the trip quite easily in the time left to him before TG?  Your assumption about the timeframe of AMoL, forces an assumption on you about the nature of Mat's need.  Personally I think it is a lot less suspiciously "convienient," if Mat makes the trip without having to resort to Taveren luck.

 

I agree with Cloglord. Indeed, I wouldn't be surprised if we met up with Mat in the prologue of aMoL already in, or on the border of Andor.

[RobertAlexWillis]

I think the most likely situation is that she comes accross Graendal in disguise--either Graendal is trying to influence things, or maybe they even end up at her manse. From there it may even been an accident. Sensing her channeling, or perhaps sensing a ter'angreal (is a streith a ter'angreal?). The point about this is that Graendal wouldn't expect it. Semirhage has had much more experience recently maintaining a disguise under close scruitainy of channelers and politicians and manipulators, and she got uncovered by something she never expected. The point is that it happens.

 

Graendal would clearly sense Aviendha's ability if she got that close.  Whereas Graendal would keep pretty tight controls on her disguise ... especially if Aiel were in the area.  She must know by now that the Aiel have channelers among them ... why wouldn't she conceal her ability?  She's shown nothing but circumspection up until now.  There better be a darn good reason for letting Aviendha just "stumble" across her ...

 

As for the example of Semirhage ... I deliberately addressed that level of "convenience".

 

Additionally, Cyndane and Moghedian havn't been training their reflexes to react to a threat since girlhood. Aviendha has.

 

Cyndane and Moghedien have both been training their channeling reflexes longer than Aviendha has been alive.  Including ten years of war with channeling as one of the main weapons.  Aviendha's reflexes didn't help her with Lanfear on the docks in Cairhien ... and Lanfear was holding both her and Egwene, without an angreal.

 

There is some reason for Egwene to stay alive in that she keeps the confrontation between the Towers alive--admittedly, at this stage i would have killed her, and used her death to incite the all out assault on the tower whilst making sure the Tower sisters were ready to react--bloodbath... but still, there is some reason.

 

Poor reasons.  If Egwene had been killed earlier on, would the Salidar sisters have just walked home with their tails between their legs?  Hardly.  There would have been a power struggle between Romanda and Lelaine, further splintering the Rebels, and leaving a drunk in charge of the Tower without serious challenge.

 

Egwene has done nothing but strengthen the Rebel faction and hasten the Tower's reunification.

 

Same goes for the situation in Andor.  Elayne's death would have left the Houses even more splintered.  Maybe ... maybe Dyelin could have gotten the ten she needed.  Of course, I'm not sure how Dyelin could have dealt with the Borderlanders ... she would have had no authority to do so before she got her support (she couldn't use that of an Aes Sedai like Elayne), and pretty much no way of getting support until she had dealt with them.  No, I think killing Elayne would have served the Shadow just fine in Andor.  Especially if they were in control of Arymilla's camp, as seems to be a real possibility.  What would Dyelin have done if Arymilla took Caemlyn?  What would Pelivar and the others have done?  It would have been another War of Succession, except instead of being over in months, it would have dragged on for years, like the last one when Mordrellen died.

 

As for the idea of Aviendha killing Graendal in an escape, all I can say is, that involves a hunt for someone ... Amys et al hunting for Avi's captor, and then Aviendha going after Graendal ... it ceases to be a happenstance encounter.  And it would also mean Aviendha already lost one encounter.

[lou]

Poor reasons.  If Egwene had been killed earlier on, would the Salidar sisters have just walked home with their tails between their legs?  Hardly.  There would have been a power struggle between Romanda and Lelaine, further splintering the Rebels, and leaving a drunk in charge of the Tower without serious challenge.

 

 

i am just rolling....... ;D

[Majsju]

One small possibility for Avi to get the jump on Graendal is if Graendal doesn't bother disguising everything she wears, and Avis ter'angreal-reading ability also covers angreal. An old lady with an angreal should cause some minor suspicion. At least enough to keep a wary eye on her.

 

But for that small possibility to even have a chance, there must obviously be a reason for Avi and others to pay a visit to this old lady in the middle of nowhere.

 

With Rand being mega-ta'veren, of course everything is possible, but I can't really see RJ going there.

[cloglord]

But for that small possibility to even have a chance, there must obviously be a reason for Avi and others to pay a visit to this old lady in the middle of nowhere.

 

If Graendal has control of the king, and Rand appoints Ituralde as regent in his name, do you think that Graendal won't do something about it? If Amys could tell that Tanchio was full of evil while in TAR, is it impossible for them to sense forsaken in their midsts?

 

She must know by now that the Aiel have channelers among them ...

 

Of course she knows, she helped Sammael send hundreds of Shaido wiseones into Ghealdean and northern Altara

 

Cyndane and Moghedien have both been training their channeling reflexes longer than Aviendha has been alive.  Including ten years of war with channeling as one of the main weapons.  Aviendha's reflexes didn't help her with Lanfear on the docks in Cairhien ... and Lanfear was holding both her and Egwene, without an angreal.

 

Personally I think that there is an apples and oranges comparison going on here.  At the docks, Avhienda was barely trained in the OP.  That would be like saying that a trained boxers reflexes aren't good, because they couldn't shoot skeet.  An argument could be made in the other direction as well.  Who knows what the effect of 3,000 years of sleep has on the relfexes, channeling or otherwise, of an individual.  In any of the OP confrontations we have seen,  the outcome is determined by many things, strength, speed, skill, the use of various Angreal/Terangreal.  Often it is just pure dumb luck that is the determinant.  I don't know where this line of argument is getting us, I suspect nowhere.

 

Poor reasons.  If Egwene had been killed earlier on, would the Salidar sisters have just walked home with their tails between their legs?  Hardly.  There would have been a power struggle between Romanda and Lelaine, further splintering the Rebels, and leaving a drunk in charge of the Tower without serious challenge.

 

I can think of one VERY good reason why Egwene is still alive.  Arangar didn't want her dead, in fact he seems to want her alive very badly.  Arangar would make an pretty effective guardian against the forces of the shadow I think.  Similarly, Messana seems to want Egwene alive.  If Messana and Arangar have some use for her, I think it make a very good reason for her to be alive.

 

Maybe ... maybe Dyelin could have gotten the ten she needed.

 

Of course she could have gotten the ten she needed.  Dyelin wuld likely had the support of Trakand, the four houses that she brought to Elayne, and the five neutral houses that had expessed an interest in declaring for Dyelin in the firstplace.  Dyelin even said that if Elayne hadn't returned she would have taken the throne.  There is no maybe about it, without Elayne, Dyelin would have been queen, and she would have done it in short order.

[Mashiara O Aan.a--ein]

This is off topic, but I think Dyelin would make a much better queen than Elayne. She has more experience, less crazy mood swings  ;), and would have easily had more support from the houses than Elayne, and even House Trakand if Elayne wouldn't throw a fit and pout (which *sigh* she probably would). I don't believe in monarchies to begin with, but if there had to be one, why would Elayne think it is her "right" to be queen just because her mother was?

[Darkness Incarnated]

Couldn't agree more if I tried. But not only that, she gets to be queen to two countries. Whoever heard of that? IMHO she's not exactly fit to rule one country. Do the Cairhierns (sp?) lack a capable leader? Do they actually want her, or is it because Rand--damn him--wants her there? He deserves to have his ears boxed for coming up with such an idea  >:(

[Mr Hindley]

Here's a thought - one thing the Forsaken almost certainly don't know about yet is that Rand is bonded to the three women. So if, say, Graendal got her hands on Aviendha, rather than the other way round, and bundled her back to the manor for interrogation or some such, she would be completely unaware that Rand would know straight away that Aviendha was in trouble - and roughly where she was.

 

I agree with all the other postings that there's really no obvious reason for Avi and Graendal to bump into each other. But after several books of trailing around fairly pointlessly with Elayne (to think, she could have as usefully spent the time on a lovely caravan holiday in Norfolk, perhaps), Avi has suddenly and for no immediately essential reason been scooped up and sent to Arad Domon. It must be for some kind of narrative reason. The only thing that would have differed if she'd stayed around is that she would either have been captured along with Elayne by the BA, or carried out the Birgitte role in Elayne's rescue. So why has RJ suddenly dispatched her to AD?

 

Although actually, it might just be so we have a known character in Arad Domon from whose POV we can see a wave of Trollocs come pouring in from the Blight in that part of the world. Hmm.

 

As for Elayne, yes I've often thought about how many lives might have been spared if she'd just thrown her support behind Dyelin. Why not? What can Elayne do that Dyelin can't that justifies a civil war..? Answers on a postcard please.

 

[Mr Ares]

I don't believe in monarchies to begin with, but if there had to be one, why would Elayne think it is her "right" to be queen just because her mother was?

Because it is her right to be Queen because her mother was. That's the law. It's how the monarchy works in Andor. Likewise it is Faile's right to become Queen of Saldaea should Tenobia die without issue and her father also die. It is the Prince of Wales' right (duty, even) to become King when his mother dies, in the U.K. Really, all of those could seem like good reasons to get rid of the monarchy, or at least of hereditary monarchy, but that's beside the point. She thinks it is her right because it is.

[RobertAlexWillis]

Personally I think that there is an apples and oranges comparison going on here.  At the docks, Avhienda was barely trained in the OP.  That would be like saying that a trained boxers reflexes aren't good, because they couldn't shoot skeet.  An argument could be made in the other direction as well.  Who knows what the effect of 3,000 years of sleep has on the relfexes, channeling or otherwise, of an individual.  In any of the OP confrontations we have seen,  the outcome is determined by many things, strength, speed, skill, the use of various Angreal/Terangreal.  Often it is just pure dumb luck that is the determinant.  I don't know where this line of argument is getting us, I suspect nowhere.

 

I made my statement in response to Luckers' argument that:

 

"Additionally, Cyndane and Moghedian havn't been training their reflexes to react to a threat since girlhood. Aviendha has." 

 

He is saying that Aviendha's reflexes from her training with the Maidens give her an advantage in a channeling battle.  I responded by pointing out that Aviendha actually had such a battle, with one of the people specifically named, and her Maiden-trained reflexes didn't do squat.  That battle was also after Lanfear's 3000 year imprisonment, so your idea that her imprisonment (or Graendal's) might dull her reflexes is ... well ... just plain wrong.

 

You are correct, however, that sheer reflex speed is probably not the primary determining factor in a channeling battle.  My response, however, was directly aimed at Luckers' contention.

 

I can think of one VERY good reason why Egwene is still alive.  Arangar didn't want her dead, in fact he seems to want her alive very badly.  Arangar would make an pretty effective guardian against the forces of the shadow I think.  Similarly, Messana seems to want Egwene alive.  If Messana and Arangar have some use for her, I think it make a very good reason for her to be alive.

 

Mesaana thinks she had a use for her, and Aran'gar was ordered to help Mesaana's plan.  Obviously, Mesaana isn't too happy with how Aran'gar did. 

 

"Why did you let her go, Aran'gar?"

 

"All my careful planning ruined because you couldn't keep a grasp on one ignorant girl!"

 

(Mesaana to Aran'gar, KoD ch 3)

 

Doesn't exactly sound like everythings going according to plan, does it?

 

Aran'gar was sent to the rebels while they were still in Salidar.  The status quo at that time was:

 

1) Egwene was viewed as a figurehead

 

2) The Rebel Hall was focused on its own internal struggles, and

 

3) The two factions were thousands of miles apart, with no resolution in sight, but still both focused on each other, even though the world was falling apart around them.

 

Thats exactly where Mesaana wanted them.  And the weaker faction, at the time, was right in the path of Mesaana's co-conspirator Semirhage's Seanchan Return.

 

Egwene was an unanticipated wild card from the start.  Mesaana had no way to know that she would return and be made Amyrlin.  Mesaana had no way to know how effective she would be as Amyrlin.  Mesaana had no way to know that she could Travel, and so bring the two factions face to face in an effective instant.  Mesaana had no way to know that she would actually establish a functional relationship with one of the Great Captains.

 

So, when Egwene came on the scene, Aran'gar was instructed to keep a leash on her.  You can guage Halima's success by Delana's reactions.  For example, Delana was instructed to vote "Yes" to declare war on Elaida.  Like most of the rest of the Hall, it would have seemed to her (and Halima) that such a declaration was simply so much wind, widening the breach between the factions without actually doing anything (much like Delana's repeated attempts to have Elaida officially labeled a Darkfriend).

 

But when Egwene took the reins, and let the Tower know what had actually happened?  You know, the speech where she said they were going to Travel to Tar Valon?

 

Delana puked.  Somehow I don't think that was according to plan.

 

In short, you're right.  Mesaana and Aran'gar do want Egwene alive.  They want her alive because they are idiots.  For their plan to actually work, they should have killed her.

 

Dyelin wuld likely had the support of Trakand, the four houses that she brought to Elayne, and the five neutral houses that had expessed an interest in declaring for Dyelin in the firstplace.

 

Who, exactly, would have given her the support of House Trakand?

 

And there were six neutral Houses (Norwelyn, Renshar, Coelan, Carand, Traemane, and Pendar), who definitely would have supported her.  Just as soon as they could leave the Murandy border, where they were a little occupied.  But no guarantee on the four she brought to Elayne (Candraed, Northan, Mantear, and Gilyard).  After all, she would have had to be on the road for months just to see them (no Elayne, no Aes Sedai, no Travelling).  By which time Arymilla would have occupied Caemlyn, with five Houses already open support, which would have changed the balance of power drastically.  If you think that fact would not have influenced the other Houses, you're sadly mistaken.

 

Or Dyelin could have occupied Caemlyn ... without channelers to supply her by gateway during the siege, and without having done the travelling (lower case t) necessary to actually gather the support of the outlying Houses.  In which case, Arymilla takes the city and probably kills or captures Dyelin herself.

 

No, you're looking at what Dyelin could have done, with Elayne alive and supporting her.  I'm talking about what happens with Elayne dead.

[cloglord]

I made my statement in response to Luckers' argument

 

I know, it just seems to me to be one of those, "My Dad could beat up your Dad." sort of arguments going on.

 

your idea that her imprisonment (or Graendal's) might dull her reflexes is ... well ... just plain wrong.

 

It was a suggested explaination, not my POV.  I go away for a little while, and you get all grouchy....

 

In short, you're right.  Mesaana and Aran'gar do want Egwene alive.  They want her alive because they are idiots.  For their plan to actually work, they should have killed her.

 

Idiots or not, it is a VERY good reason for Egwene to still be living.  We could debate the relative stupidity of any number of the characters, Nynaeve not telling anyone about the Male Adam, is one of my favorites.  I also think that you are overlooking something, Messanna assumes that Arangar is there to assist her, as do you, but that does not make it a true assumption.  We know absolutely nothing about the orders that Arangar recieved, except that she was supposed to keep track of Egwene.  At the Gardens, Arangar expresses that without Egwene he/she has much weaker tools to work with.  Further we know from that POV that Arangar is perfectly willing to defy orders.  Messanna wanted Egwene alive for her plan, and you are right, it doesn't seem to be working well for her plan, but it says nothing about what Egwene's place in Arangar's plans might be.  It could very well be that these two forsaken aren't idiots after all, instead they just aren't doing a good job of communicating, sharing, or ultimately getting along.

 

Who, exactly, would have given her the support of House Trakand?

 

 

Whoever house Trakand chose as the next high seat.

 

No, you're looking at what Dyelin could have done, with Elayne alive and supporting her.

 

No I'm not, but I'm glad to know that you can read my mind.  Were did I dsay anything about using the OP?  Quite simply Dyelin Taravin was not nearly as contentious a choice for Queen as Elayne is/was.  she already had 7 of the houses in her pocket. Trakand was likely to go to her, once a replacement was found.  She personally convinced the other four, but it is by no means a certain thing that a personal visit would have been nessecary at all, if she were looking for support for herself instead of for Elayne, especially considering that she would have had the support of 7 of the 10 nessecary houses already.  That is if you don't take into account that it was Dyelin who has arrested 2 of the houses that you put into Amyrilla's ledger.  There is no guarantee that Dylenin would have tried to have those highseats moved, or even that Amyrilla would have annonuced her silly claim to the throne if Dyelin had started with her 7 of the 10 houses that she needed.

 

Again apples and oranges.  Two entirely different and uncomparable circumstances.

[RobertAlexWillis]

It was a suggested explaination, not my POV.

 

Then why did you suggest it?  I mean, I can suggest all kinds of silly things that aren't my actual POV ...  ???

 

Idiots or not, it is a VERY good reason for Egwene to still be living.

 

It is the reason.  It is not a good reason.  I never denied that the reason Egwene was alive is that Mesaana and Aran'gar want her that way.  I just said it was a poor reason.  By which I meant, not in their best interest.

 

You and I seem to have very, very different dictionaries ... now I remember why my old sig was what it was.

 

Whoever house Trakand chose as the next high seat.

 

Which would be who?  You blithely assume that this unknown person will pop up and throw their support behind Dyelin.  Its much more likely that, since we've never heard of this person, he or she might either 1) not exist, throwing House Trakand into chaos, unable to support anyone, or 2) have his or her own agenda, about which we know nothing.

 

No I'm not, but I'm glad to know that you can read my mind.

 

No, just your arguments.  Which are precisely what I addressed.

 

Were did I dsay anything about using the OP?

 

You didn't.  But you did assume that Dyelin could have contacted people and gotten to places that she has only gotten to and contacted (within the timeframe available) with the assistance of someone using the One Power.

 

Quite simply Dyelin Taravin was not nearly as contentious a choice for Queen as Elayne is/was.

 

To some, which I admit, even naming their Houses.  But Elayne Trakand has resources and strengths that Dyelin Taravin does not.  Dyelin didn't refuse in Elayne's favor for nothing.

 

To introduce another factor you aren't considering, if the Shadow had killed Elayne, Rand wouldn't be taking a "hands off" policy to Andor.  He would have chosen someone to be his Steward.  And several of the Houses in Andor were prepared to fight him, or at least to resist, if not to the point of open fighting.  Especially if they knew he didn't intend to leave.

 

You paint a picture of "If Elayne was gone, everything would have fallen neatly into Dyelin's lap."  That's naive.

[Mashiara O Aan.a--ein]

As for Elayne, yes I've often thought about how many lives might have been spared if she'd just thrown her support behind Dyelin. Why not? What can Elayne do that Dyelin can't that justifies a civil war..? Answers on a postcard please.

 

I wholeheartedly agree.

 

It's funny that Elayne never even considered that maybe Dyelin should be the queen. She just stomped into Andor and decided she would claim the throne. So much for caring about Andor. If Elayne really cared, she would not want her people dying just so she could be queen instead of Dyelin. And really, besides just the political experience Dyelin has, it's also always better to have a ruler that the people are more willing to accept. After the Morgase catastrophe, people don't want another Trakand. If they don't know about Rahvin, can you really blame them? On top of that, if I was an Andoran, I would definitely perfer Dyelin as queen because her loyalties lie only with Andor. Elayne is strongly tied to Egwene/White Tower...if those two interests clash at some point, YIKES!

 

 

Couldn't agree more if I tried. But not only that, she gets to be queen to two countries. Whoever heard of that? IMHO she's not exactly fit to rule one country. Do the Cairhierns (sp?) lack a capable leader? Do they actually want her, or is it because Rand--damn him--wants her there? He deserves to have his ears boxed for coming up with such an idea  >:(

 

I second that motion

[Lord_Naryb]

 

I do not have my books handy, but I think I remember in KoD Elayne considering letting Dyelin taking the throne might be better for Andor. Admittedly, she rejects the notion rather quickly, but at least she considered it.

 

 

Based on various thoughts in Elayne's POV I believe that Elayne would put Andor before the White Tower. Just as Egwene has put the Tower before Emond's Field.

 

[cloglord]

Then why did you suggest it?  I mean, I can suggest all kinds of silly things that aren't my actual POV ...

 

I was giving examples of possible arguments from both sides, the point being that neither POV was very constructive or likely to advance the discussion in any meaningful way.

 

It is the reason.  It is not a good reason

 

It is both.  RJ has written the forsaken as flawed characters, they are neither all-knowing nor all-powerful.  I assume that you enjoy the series, so I can't see what your problem is.  The reason that Egwene is alive is because RJ doesn't write perfect badguys.  Similarly, the reason why Fain, Slayer, etc aren't dead is because RJ doesn't write perfect good guys either.

 

Which would be who?  You blithely assume that this unknown person will pop up and throw their support behind Dyelin.  Its much more likely that, since we've never heard of this person, he or she might either 1) not exist, throwing House Trakand into chaos, unable to support anyone, or 2) have his or her own agenda, about which we know nothing.

 

When has any noble house in the series, not had a next in line picked out?  The answer, never.

 

No, just your arguments.  Which are precisely what I addressed.

 

No, you didn't.  You told me I was looking at the situation as if Elayne were alive and supporting her.  I was not looking at the situation from that POV, in fact I made mention of Elayne's successor in that argument, so I'm completely unsure how I COULD have been looking at things from that POV.  Don't assume you know me well enough that it doesn't require you to actually read my posts before responding to them.  I find it a little insulting that you seem to have little difficulty following the nuances of philosophical minutia in one thread, and can't even seem to take the time to understand what I've said here.

 

Dyelin didn't refuse in Elayne's favor for nothing.

 

Actually she pretty much did.  Her stated reasons for not declaring were that she didn't think the crown should past from house to house without a good reason, and that ultimately she thought that Elayne would make a better queen.  IF Elayne were dead, neither of these reasons would hold.  In fact, in that hypothetical situation, Dyelin even said that she would have made a bid for the crown.  Elayne, had only one advantage over Dyelin, Dyelin supported Elayne instead of supporting herself.

 

You didn't.  But you did assume that Dyelin could have contacted people and gotten to places that she has only gotten to and contacted (within the timeframe available) with the assistance of someone using the One Power.

 

Do we really have to start up a discussion on the reliability of pigeons again?  I made NO assumptions about one power usage, and I made no assumptions about the timeframe in which Dyelin would be allowed to make a bid for power.  If Elayne had died in Salidar, it would certainly have given Dyelin more time to act than if she meets her hypothetical end during the siege.  As I said before, I'm glad you know what assumptions I have or have not made.  Thanks for letting me know. ::)

 

You paint a picture of "If Elayne was gone, everything would have fallen neatly into Dyelin's lap."  That's naive.

 

Elayne's death would have left the Houses even more splintered.

 

You paint a picture of "If Elayne was gone, everything would have fallen apart."  That's naive.  See, I can be an @ss too.

 

I don't know what's gotten into you RAW, but I liked the old you better.

 

edited to remove some of the more snarky things I said here, I left the rest.

[RobertAlexWillis]

When has any noble house in the series, not had a next in line picked out?  The answer, never.

 

I'm sorry, are you saying that in the history of Randland, no noble House has ever died out?  That's just .... ludicrous.

 

It is both.  RJ has written the forsaken as flawed characters, they are neither all-knowing nor all-powerful.  I assume that you enjoy the series, so I can't see what your problem is.  The reason that Egwene is alive is because RJ doesn't write perfect badguys.  Similarly, the reason why Fain, Slayer, etc aren't dead is because RJ doesn't write perfect good guys either.

 

You see, this is what comes of using the same word in different ways.  When I read "a VERY good reason", I assume that you are claiming that leaving Egwene alive helped Mesaana's plan.  Given the remainder of your arguments, that seems a reasonable assumption.  However, now you are simply claiming it as evidence that "RJ doesn't write perfect badguys".  Well, duh.  Thats exactly what I've been saying.  Mesaana and Aran'gar were stupid to leave Egwene alive.

 

No, you didn't.  You told me I was looking at the situation as if Elayne were alive and supporting her.  I was not looking at the situation from that POV, in fact I made mention of Elayne's successor in that argument, so I'm completely unsure how I COULD have been looking at things from that POV.  Don't assume you know me well enough that it doesn't require you to actually read my posts before responding to them.  I find it a little insulting that you seem to have little difficulty following the nuances of philosophical minutia in one thread, and can't even seem to take the time to understand what I've said here.

 

I explained precisely which portions of your argument made the unspoken assumptions I attributed to them.  If you can't see it, then I can't help you.

 

You paint a picture of "If Elayne was gone, everything would have fallen apart."  That's naive.  See, I can be an @ss too.

 

At least I'm admitting what picture I'm painting.  Yes, if Elayne was gone, the nation of Andor would be splintered and at war with itself for a period of at least years.  Just like the last time it lost its Queen and had no Daughter-heir.  Stupid me, thinking about the recent history of the country in question, the general chaos in the land, and the political implications of those things.

 

Yes.  What an ass I am.

[Artred]

Back to Slayer...  I could see Perrin being the one to finish him, but Luc is Rand's only living relative other than Galad and Isam is the last connection to Lan's family.  I think both of them are going to encounter him at some point.

 

Sorry, but Where does it say Luc(who is Isam) is Rand's relative, which would make Lan is relative too. And where do you get that Galad is his relative also. That would make them all family. If you see this please tell me what books you read =P unless you have some unseen meaning by what you mean

[Cadsuane]

Slayer is a merged being - he is both Isam (Lan's cousin, who vanished in the Blight), and Luc, who is Tigraine's brother. Tigraine was the daughter-heir in Andor before she followed Gitara Moroso Sedai's Fortelling that said she had to leave Andor. She snuck away into the Waste, where she became a Maiden of the Spear, and was called Shaiel. She became pregnant with Rand by an Aiel man, and gave birth to him on the slopes of Dragonmount before she died there.

 

So, Lan and Rand are not related, since Luc and Isam are not related familialy, but through whatever dark process merged them together into Slayer.

 

As to Galad, he is Rand's half brother. Before she left for the Waste, Tigraine gave birth to Galad who was fathered by the same man who fathered Elayne and Gawyn with Morgase when she took over the throne after Tigraine's disappearance, and before Thom got rid of him.

 

Make sense?  :D

[cloglord]

I'm sorry, are you saying that in the history of Randland, no noble House has ever died out?  That's just .... ludicrous.

 

I'm sorry, but are you saying that one of the 19 most powerful Andoral houses is in danger of not being able to provide a heir?  That's just .... ludicrous.

 

You see, this is what comes of using the same word in different ways.  When I read "a VERY good reason", I assume that you are claiming that leaving Egwene alive helped Mesaana's plan.  Given the remainder of your arguments, that seems a reasonable assumption.  However, now you are simply claiming it as evidence that "RJ doesn't write perfect badguys". 

 

Twist it how you want, but my argument has been consistent throughout.  Messanna thought, and apparently still thinks that Egwene is important to her plans.  Arangar also seems to be working under this assumption, although it is likely that Arangar's plans and Messana's plans are not the same.  They might be wrong, they might be incompentent, but we don't know that for sure.  You have made all sorts of assumptions about what Messanna's plans are, but we don't know what they are exactly.  Further, we don't know what Arangar is working on at all, except that he/she is supposed to be keeping tabs on Egwene, and that he needs her for whatever it is he's planning.

 

It is a good reason, because Arangar needs her for his plan.  It is a good reason becasue Messana needs her for her plan.  I don't claim to know, nor have I ever, that either plan is good, because frankly I don't know for sure what either of them is planning.

 

If you have a problem with the badguys being flawed, perhaps you'll like my new version of the WoT better.

 

 

Chapter one:  Rand clutched hid cloak araound him as he walkded towards Emond's Field.  It had been a bad winter, with no signs of it ending, despite it being the day before Bel Tine.  He just couldn't shake the sense of being watched.  He looked at his Father, hopeing he wouldn't notice his unease.  Tam was a blocky man, as solid as rock, and just as sure of himself.  Rand wondered if he'd ever possess the same sureness about him.  Suddenly, in the shadows, Rand saw a man on horseback.  Dressed all in black, he seemed to emminate menace.  For some reason, Rand got the feeeling that the man hated him, that there was murder behind that black cowl.  The idea almost made Rand laugh, there was not violence in the two rivers, there hadn't even been a murder in fourty years.  Chuckling to himself, Rand turned to get another look at the man.

 

The Fade ran him through with his dead black blade.

 

THE END

 

There you go, no messing around, Ishy just went ahead and killed him.

 

I explained precisely which portions of your argument made the unspoken assumptions I attributed to them.  If you can't see it, then I can't help you.

 

They were unspoken because they were unmade.  At least by me.

 

I'm admitting what picture I'm painting.  Yes, if Elayne was gone, the nation of Andor would be splintered and at war with itself for a period of at least years.

 

You are on one extreme of this argument and I'm on the other.  Disagreeing with you does not make me ludicrous, naive, or any other petty insult you'd like to throw in my direction.  Your condecension amazes me, as I had thought you better than that.  Maybe having people blow smoke about how amazing RAW is, has gone to your head.

[Luckers]

Graendal would clearly sense Aviendha's ability if she got that close.  Whereas Graendal would keep pretty tight controls on her disguise ... especially if Aiel were in the area.  She must know by now that the Aiel have channelers among them ... why wouldn't she conceal her ability?  She's shown nothing but circumspection up until now.  There better be a darn good reason for letting Aviendha just "stumble" across her ...

 

You're assuming alot of things. For instance you your assuming that Aviendha being close is something that would arrouse Graendal's suspicion--yet with the Aiel in Arad Domon its perfectly reasonable for Graendal to be trying to influence them, in which case she would be especting Aiel channelers in the area. Beyond which with TG beginning she would have to contacting Aiel darkfriends--even Wise One darkfriends....

 

You seem to be expecting that Graendal is sitting in her manor twidling her thumbs and that Aviendha just happens to rock up, inspect this random manner, and discover sweet of Lady Basene is in fact sinister OLD Graendal. Of course that's unlikely.

 

The suggestion is that due to circumstance Aviendha and Graendal are brought near each other--likely through some purpose of Graendal's--and through that some form of spontaneous confrontation occurs.

 

Cyndane and Moghedien have both been training their channeling reflexes longer than Aviendha has been alive.  Including ten years of war with channeling as one of the main weapons.  Aviendha's reflexes didn't help her with Lanfear on the docks in Cairhien ... and Lanfear was holding both her and Egwene, without an angreal.

 

Yes, they have. And Aviendha has been training her personal reflexes much more studiously. And now that she has had experience with the Power, those reflexes combined with that experience come into play... which would be my point.

 

In terms of training in recognition and reaction to an enemy, Aviendha exceeds both Moghedian and Cyndane by far. Add familiarity to the Power (which she lacked in her initial interaction with Lanfear) and yes, she is more formidable.

 

Poor reasons.  If Egwene had been killed earlier on, would the Salidar sisters have just walked home with their tails between their legs?  Hardly.  There would have been a power struggle between Romanda and Lelaine, further splintering the Rebels, and leaving a drunk in charge of the Tower without serious challenge.

 

Despite your use of the word 'hardly', yes indeed that seems likely to have been the case... do you really want me to quote the number of times that was stated, much less suggested? It'll take me hours, but ill do it if you havn't read the books.

 

Egwene has done nothing but strengthen the Rebel faction and hasten the Tower's reunification.

 

Aye. I agree with both. However, from the point of view of the Forsaken, the significant thing she has done is strengthen the Rebels. The streangthening of one side in a confrontation so that it might stand toe to toe with the other is absolutely a goal that an interested third party would maintain.

 

From the point of view of the readers we see Egwene's end game. But from the point of view of the Forsaken, the point is increasing the tension. Egwene achieved that, and was as such maintained. Now, don't get me wrong, they are currently maintaining it to their own detriment, but that is a result of their human blindness, and yes, it is understandable... albeit stupid.

 

Same goes for the situation in Andor.  Elayne's death would have left the Houses even more splintered.  Maybe ... maybe Dyelin could have gotten the ten she needed.  Of course, I'm not sure how Dyelin could have dealt with the Borderlanders ... she would have had no authority to do so before she got her support (she couldn't use that of an Aes Sedai like Elayne), and pretty much no way of getting support until she had dealt with them.  No, I think killing Elayne would have served the Shadow just fine in Andor.  Especially if they were in control of Arymilla's camp, as seems to be a real possibility.  What would Dyelin have done if Arymilla took Caemlyn?  What would Pelivar and the others have done?  It would have been another War of Succession, except instead of being over in months, it would have dragged on for years, like the last one when Mordrellen died.

 

Again you deal with the birds eye view of the reader. Dyelin had the six who stood apart (Norwelyn, Renshar, Coelan, Carand, Traemane and Pendar) from the very beginning. Dyelin originally had Elenia and Naean arrested which brought her Arawn and Sarand... thats eight. And it was Dyelin herself that won Mantear, Haevin, Gilyard and Northan to Elayne's cause. With Elayne dead, do you really doubt that they would not have supported Taravin?

 

The contention occured because of Morgase's treatment of the six that stood aside. With Elayne dead, Dyelin would have accepted their support, and Arymilla would have had nought. Not that that is significant, because from the Shadow's point of view, Elayne provided a counter to Arymilla thus causing the very contention that we witnessed... indeed, the event that ended that contention was so unpredictable that... well... yeah... it wasn't predictable.

 

As for the idea of Aviendha killing Graendal in an escape, all I can say is, that involves a hunt for someone ... Amys et al hunting for Avi's captor, and then Aviendha going after Graendal ... it ceases to be a happenstance encounter.  And it would also mean Aviendha already lost one encounter.

 

I don't believe in that Aviendha will kill Graendal, but the distinction you are making is odd... I'm afraid i don't understand it?

 

I agree with all the other postings that there's really no obvious reason for Avi and Graendal to bump into each other.

 

Well, I would disagree with this. There is a fairly obvious reason for their interaction--specifically Graendal is responsible for Arad Domon, and the Aiel just became the singular greatest influence on events in Arad Domon. Given that Aviendha is likely to be close to the circles of power amongst the Aiel (through narative purpose, as much as personal relationship to Amys and Rhuarc and so forth) then yes... there is indeed reason for them to come to interact.

 

I made my statement in response to Luckers' argument that:

 

"Additionally, Cyndane and Moghedian havn't been training their reflexes to react to a threat since girlhood. Aviendha has." 

 

He is saying that Aviendha's reflexes from her training with the Maidens give her an advantage in a channeling battle.  I responded by pointing out that Aviendha actually had such a battle, with one of the people specifically named, and her Maiden-trained reflexes didn't do squat.  That battle was also after Lanfear's 3000 year imprisonment, so your idea that her imprisonment (or Graendal's) might dull her reflexes is ... well ... just plain wrong.

 

You are correct, however, that sheer reflex speed is probably not the primary determining factor in a channeling battle.  My response, however, was directly aimed at Luckers' contention.

 

Umm... Cloglords position stands. Aviendha was new to channeling, therefore her reflexivity to percieved danger was rather irrelevant. I'm afraid I don't understand your contention. Is it your position that Aviendha has learned nothing in the year since that event? Your final comment seems to dismiss that... so yeah, I'm a little confused.

 

But no guarantee on the four she brought to Elayne (Candraed, Northan, Mantear, and Gilyard). 

 

Umm, aside from the fact that SHE brought them to Elayne, they supported Elayne because the succession suggested her. With Elayne removed, their reasoning would land on Dyelin. There was nothing personal about their aligning with Trakand, except that Elayne was the Daughter Heir. Dyelin was next in line.

 

By which time Arymilla would have occupied Caemlyn, with five Houses already open support, which would have changed the balance of power drastically.

 

Naean and Elenia fell to Arymilla only because of Elayne. Prior to that they were in Dyelin's power. Arymilla would never even have made a claim lacking Sarand and Arawn.

 

It's pretty clear, mate.

 

No, you're looking at what Dyelin could have done, with Elayne alive and supporting her.  I'm talking about what happens with Elayne dead.

 

With Elayne dead? Well, yeah, again, Sarand and Arawn are at worst withheld from the issue, and are at best Dyeline's. Norwelyn, Renshar, Coelan, Carand, Traemane and Pendar would not have stood aside out of disdain (worry) for Morgase. Arymilla would most probably have never made a claim which would have left Baryn and Anshar up for grabs (and by that i mean supporting Taravin). Mantear, Haevin, Gilyard and Northan would have joined eventually, even lacking gateways.

 

 

[lou]

i thought this thread was a look at potential "encounters" that we might like to see take place in the next book, but it seems to have been turned into a "what if" discussion on andor's succession,

 

in any case an encounter that i would like to see is elaida (the ranting drunk) vrs. alviarin. i think there might actually be hairpulling and scratching involved in that one. i think elaida can take her......