Will Lan Reach Tarwin's Gap In Time

[Jaric Mondoran]

 

Also' date=' for the pace to slow, one side or the other is going to have to back off, take the pressure down a notch. I simply don't see that happening at this point.

[/quote']

 

I tend to agree that it seems a little odd for the breakneck pace to ease off, although there is something to be said for the calm before the storm. Personally I chalk it up to Jordan treading water plotwise through much of the last four books; he's left himself with so much to resolve that I don't think he'll have much of a choice short of closing the series quite abruptly (for an epic spanning almost two decades). Maybe it's just me being sentimental, but I like the scene where Nynaeve drops Lan off at Land's End as much as any plot setup in this series in a long, long, time. It has a resonance with the characters and the history of Randland that's been lacking since most of them became big shots who aren't awed by much anymore. So I hope that Lan's ride won't be hexed by a saidar-powered deus ex machina as some people have guessed. That doesn't mean it won't happen, though.

 

As far as the relationship resolution, I don't see Jordan as much of an advocate of thwarted or suspended love in fiction. Pick any sympathetic character in WoT, and if they aren't drawn inexorably towards their soulmate (maybe over the course of 3000 pages) then either they are Lini or they got zapped with balefire before they could hook up with someone.

 

Anonymous, I like the emphasis on Cadsuane. Even though she's faded into the background recently, assorted dreams/visions/prophecies/Foretellings have hyped her importance to Rand almost as much as Moiraine's.

[Beckon]

I think it's a balance between the two. Moiraine to give him the knowledge, Cadsuane to give him the humanity. I'm little curious to see what happens when Moiraine and Cadsuane meet. Moiraine stated in New Spring that she thought Cads was a darkfriend and Cads promised to spank Moiraine. In tPoD, Cads thinks how Moiraine has bungled things.

 

I don't loath Cadsuane the way I used to but I do think she's got a little "pot calling the kettle back" about her.

[cloglord]

I absolutely agree that the real point of this thread is an attempt to determine just how much time that aMoL will cover. We are all interested in how many of these plot threads RJ will wrap up for us, and the more we know about how much time the last book will cover, the more he will be able to do with that time. Personally, I think that Lan's trip gives us the single most important clue as to how long it will take to get to TG, but there are others as well.

 

For instance, we know that it will take some time for Mat to get to the tower of Ghenji and return,(to wherever he is going to return.) We can assume that Galad still has some part to play, and that it will take him some time to arrive at his eventual destination. Likewise, we can assume that Loial has a part to play in bringing the Ogier to play, and that he thinks that the soonest the great stump could be brought to concensus would be a month. Unless we assume that the role of the seafolk and the jendai prophecy is minute, it will take the seafolk at least a month to make the trip from tear to arad domon. How does the borderlander army come into play?

 

The most telling piece of evidence, in my opinion, is the epilouge to KoD. Tuon arrives back in Ebou Dar from the murandian border. If we assume that Karede does not trust Tuon to a To'Raken flight, then it would take some time for them to arrive back at the tarisin palace. It took 41 days for Karede to follow and find Tuon, I suspect it took that long for her to get back.

 

Is 41 days sufficient? Is 41 days even a good baseline? I think so, but I suspect that not everyone here agrees.

[cloglord]

I found a good quote for the amount of time it would take to cross the entirety of the borderlands. NS chapter 16 tells us that Lady Arrel made the trip from Fal Moran to Maradon and back to Chachin since the new year. Steven Cooper's timeline for New Spring tells us that is a trip of 109 days. COnsidering that the distance between world's end and Maradon is roughly equivalent to the distance between Chachin and Maradon, I'd say that this is a pretty good number to estimate Lan's trip by.

[grump]

When does Faile get kidnapped? Perrin counts 51 knots when he tosses it away. So is it almost 2 months for 2 or 3 books That is after Rand loses his hand and several days before he rescues Faile

Karede shows up abiut 2 weeks after mat has rejoined the Band and Perrin sees Mat and Teun together about the time they rejoin the band. The same 3 books ago is when Mat grabbed her. Riding Hard Karade would be back in town in 2-3 weeks. Lan left about a week before Rand lost his hand So If you sift a little, Lan has been on the road at the end of the book for between 5 and 6 weeks. He doesn't know he is being joined so for a period of time he will be pushing hard. The horse that he has could have him 3000+ miles into the journey.

 

Just a thought. What do you think?

[cloglord]

Steven Cooper's timeline tells us that it took 41 days for Karede to follow and find Tuon. That is from the time he left, till the time he found her. Concidering his pure dumb luck at incorrectly guessing the motives for the kidnapping and his correct guess as to her location I think that it was at least 41 days between when we last see Tuon with Mat and when we see her putting Suroth on the auction block. I think this because, Karede was trying to make his trip to find her as quickly as possible, and he obviously distrusted non-deathwatch military forces with Tuon's safety. Since he would have needed to contact these same forces in order to procure To'Raken or raken flight back to Ebou Dar, I believe that at least this POV from the epilouge to KoD's takes place roughly 40 days after the rest of the book.

 

Since, Tuon doesn't seem to be freaking out about the reports of trollocs running rampant all over Randland, I conclude that TG hasn't yet begun to any large degree by that point.

 

I also know that this is not a popular opinion, and probably won't spend too much time or energy trying to defend it.

[grump]

Clog If you figure it that way. Lan may have been on the road for 2+ months already. Maybe he does have a chance of getting there on time.

Lan leaves

Rand loses a Hand day 7

Perrin see Rand without a hand Day 14

Perrin sees Mat riding with Teon before the band Day 21 ?

Mat finds the band and raids for 2 weeks Until Karede finds them Day 35 ?

41 days on the way back seems a little long because on the way out they were searching and on the way back they were pushing hard and fast So lets pick anumber out of the air and say 30 days which brings the total to 65 days? or just over 9 weeks.

 

What we don't know at this point is how fast Lan is traveling and who may be with him.

 

Well as that emptys my mind I guess I will stop.

[cloglord]

Grump, most all of this has been discussed further up thread. The Cooper timeline says that it is 16 days between Nyn takes Lan to world's end, and when Karede catches up to Tuon. If you add the 41 days, I suggested to that number, you get 56 days. Earlier I predicted 62 days, for Lan to make the trip alone based on his trip from Carhien to salidar after his bond was broken with Moraine. Later using modernday horse endurance race statistics and historic US cavalry reports I predicted that Lan could make the trip as fast as 21 1/2 days, but for the sake of realistic argument predicted a time of 41 1/2 days based on the slower US Cavalry example. It should be noted that I assumed, and still do assume, that Lan will be traveling alone for a large portion of this journey.

 

I then tried to compensate for the idea that Lan will have caught up to some portion of those headed for Tarwin's Gap. I postulated that those he was most likely to catch up to were those that had the furthest to go, the Saldeans. I assumed that these forces would largely be cavalry forces. I estimated that this could slow him to as much as 2/3rds of his maximum pace, and adjusted his time accordingly. Using the mileage estimates that Anonymous provided, and a figure of 40mi/day, I calculated that this trip would take 62.5 days. (As an interesting side note, I believe, but could be mistaken, that the Band of the red hand regularly made 40 miles per day.) With this last calculation, based on Steven COoper's timeline, somewhere around 60 days seems to me like a likely amount of time that will be spent between when Lan was dropped off and the onset of TG. That's only 45 days from the time we last see Tuon.

 

For those who don't think that it should be stretched out that far, or that it will put off the pace, remember that there have been entire books where one of the major 3 characters don't show up. I think that the majority of the first portion of AMoL will be covering Mat's trip to the tower of ghenji, Egwene's reunification of the tower and the seanchan attack, and perhaps a resolution to the borderland army plotline. I don't think that Rand will figure prominently in the first 3rd of the book, (probably his begger phase,) Lan will be busy cruising through the borderlands, Galad will be trying to get to TV, and Perrin will be marching his nation of Shaido refugees to some indeterminate point, (Maybe Andor?) Some of the characters will get play, some won't. I predict that the second act will be the alliance between Rand and the seanchan, egwene confronting the DR, Verin and the horn, Lan's arrival at Tarwin's Gap, The flight of the BA, and the battle and subsequent escape of Taim's dreadlords, etc. The third act will be TG, and I think that there will be an extra long epilouge.

 

Seriously, even if we just look at Rand, we know that the last book will span longer than a week or two. Where is the signifigance of Rand in beggar's robes if he's only in them for a fortnight? For 2 years he's been trying to forge his own destiny, trying to bend the pattern to his will, and he wises up after a few days as a vagrant amputee on the street?

[grump]

Clog I guess what it boils down to is we came up with pretty much the same days using different calculations

 

I feel kind of like the farmer that came to church and was the only one there, and the preacher asked if he wanted to hear the sermon. He responded if I only have one cow in the field I still have to feed it. So the preacher took off for an hour and a half and when it was over asked how the man enjoyed it

He said you know that one cow of mine, I don't usually try to feed it the whole load at one sitting

 

You have left me with enough information to keep me thinking for quite a while Thanks

 

My head is full again with a headache I'll take a nap

[Guest Anonymous!]

I found a good quote for the amount of time it would take to cross the entirety of the borderlands. NS chapter 16 tells us that Lady Arrel made the trip from Fal Moran to Maradon and back to Chachin since the new year. Steven Cooper's timeline for New Spring tells us that is a trip of 109 days. COnsidering that the distance between world's end and Maradon is roughly equivalent to the distance between Chachin and Maradon' date=' I'd say that this is a pretty good number to estimate Lan's trip by.[/quote']

 

By himself ... or even with a small contingent, I wouldn't have a problem with ~110 days for the trip, which would be about 24-25 miles per day. I don't like the fact that he is starting on the other side of a mountain range and not on a road. It pretty much boils down to this for me:

[cloglord]

I don't believe that it will take Lan the full 110 days though. Presumably Lady Arrel did not ride straight through without stopping to be feasted and discuss her plans to raise Malkier again. I was using this to give us a clear and direct comparison of an entourage covering nearly the exact same route that Lan will cover. At most, I think that it will take Lan 110 days, but I still think this number is too large.

[RobertAlexWillis]

Presumably Lady Arrel did not ride straight through without stopping to be feasted and discuss her plans to raise Malkier again.

 

Just to be picky, presumably she wasn't bogged down by organizing a volunteer army along the way either. Even if most go to Fal Moran or Tarwin's Gap to wait for him, Lan is still going to have some people joining him along the way.

 

I'm afraid I've reached the conclusion that Jordan isn't going to let realistic logistics get in the way of drama here though. Maybe I'll get lucky and he's got a plan that encompases both though.

[cloglord]

Just to be picky, presumably she wasn't bogged down by organizing a volunteer army along the way either.

 

Uh, actually that was exactly her purpose, which is why I thought it made such a great baseline comparison. She traveled the borderlands specifically trying to do what Lan is now doing without trying at all.

[Bob T Dwarf]

Jordan has described himself as "an old testament god with his fist in the middle of his character's lives."

 

I take that to mean that Lan, and whatever force he gathers will be exactly where Jordan decides he needs to be in order to get the book to play out the way he intends.

 

If that's Tarwin's Gap, then he'll make it to Tarwin's Gap despite whatever logistics problems he may face. If it's somewhere else, he'll be whereever that is due to an unknowable combination of factors.

 

Either way, he'll play the part Jordan intends. That's the great thing about final books... everybody's wishlists of outcomes gets foreclosed, and we are finally left with only what the author intended for us to have.

[Paladin]

Personally I think Traveling will have a role to play here. Nynaeve could arrive just in time with a circle of AS to open a Gateway to Tarwins Gap. Having an army of Borderlanders followiung the Golden Crane jump out of thin air in tarwins gap just in time to save the day really appeals to my sense of drama.

[DemandredFO]

'm sorry guys I haven't read the whole thread so if this was discussed before I apologize. Having said that I do not see the problem with Nyneave coming to get Lan, for all we know she put a tracking device on him like Moiraine did with the taver'en in EotW. Maybe Nyneave could make a gateway big enough for an army, Egwene made one for Mat and co. to Ebu Dar and that was big enough for a horse. Nyneave is stronger than Egwene and she also has an angreal so I see no problem in her making a gateway big enough for an army. Who knows she may even go with it but even with her if she goes I don't think they can stop the Trollocs. They may even have dreadlords, I would, and like Paladin said that would be dramatic but I don't think they'll save the day. I think they'll be chased to Tar Valon maybe Lan's army will have the aid of travelling, maybe not. K now fire away

[RobertAlexWillis]

Uh, actually that was exactly her purpose, which is why I thought it made such a great baseline comparison.

 

She was laying the groundwork for a FUTURE army. She wasn't gathering them to ride with her. There weren't 10,000 men camped outside Chachin when Lan got there. She didn't have to worry, at the time, about feeding, staging, and carrying the baggage of all those men.

[Paladin]

The Idea of staging an army without having to worry about feeding, staging, and carrying the baggage of all the men in question, is not a new one.

During the crusades, anyone who wanted to join the "Holy War" (and get a free trip to heaven) were expected to make thier way to the "Holy Land" on thier own rescources paying thier own way.

 

Similiarly an army of borderlanders could in theory rally to a likely place ( Fal Dara maybe)on thier own steam, living of the land buying food as needed from villages along the way.

 

Nynaeve has been Traveleling across the Borderlands and telling Malkieri that Lan is traveling to Tarwin's Gap. any groups of Soldiers hoping to join in TG would head for Tarwin's Gap and rally there not head towards Worlds End trying to find Lan.

 

A single person or small group does not need a baggage train, they can live of the land and purchase food as needed,and will travel much faster than an army could. And staging at Fal Dara would allow them to live of the Fortress. It is always well stocked in case of a siege.

 

I just dont see how 10,000 people would head toward Lan when the fight is in the opposite direction.

[RobertAlexWillis]

During the crusades, anyone who wanted to join the "Holy War" (and get a free trip to heaven) were expected to make thier way to the "Holy Land" on thier own rescources paying thier own way.

 

Lan is more responsible than the organizers of the Crusades.

 

Nynaeve has been Traveleling across the Borderlands and telling Malkieri that Lan is traveling to Tarwin's Gap. any groups of Soldiers hoping to join in TG would head for Tarwin's Gap and rally there not head towards Worlds End trying to find Lan.

 

I agree that the majority by far would do that. But the ones who have almost as far to go as he does would try to ride with him, for the drama of it. And he can't turn them away, because he promised Nynaeve he wouldn't. Even 5,000 men would slow him down considerably, despite the 35 or 40 thousand smart enough to go to Fal Moran or Fal Dara and wait for him.

[Guest Anonymous!]

If that's Tarwin's Gap, then he'll make it to Tarwin's Gap despite whatever logistics problems he may face. If it's somewhere else, he'll be whereever that is due to an unknowable combination of factors.

 

 

I don't disagree. Jordan will write his story as he sees fit. The realism of what he writes is what makes me roll my eyes, or laugh at its nonsensical nature.

 

Paladin -Lan will be riding by horseback and more than likely he will pass a few Malkieri on the way. If he is travelling really hard he will pass a lot. Since all of these people know Lan is marching toward Fal Dara they will be taking that major trade route denoted on all the TWoT maps. More than likely the "volunteers" will see Lan and want to ride with or follow him, Lan has promised to take any who ask to ride with him. Like RobertAlexWillis wrote I see him picking up a few thousand followers along his trip, with MOST (10's of thousands) of them beating him to Fal Dara. He will arrive with a small army, and a big army will be waiting for him.

 

I wouldn't be surprised if Jordan uses Gateways to speed up Lan's journey.

 

What does live off the land mean? Does that mean they will spend half the day hunting and preparing food? Or does that mean they will steal food from farms along their march?

 

Medieval farms don't produce a large surplus, and most of the Borderlands is described as broken and rugged. Since 90% of the pre-industrial populations used to be farmers, regions or countries cannot handle large increases in non-food producing populations. Every one person that stops at a farm and takes a days meal is one less meal for the farmer and family to eat or it's one less meal going to the ruling Noble as taxes or it's one less meal going to feed a person in the city or military (ie a person who doesn't grow food).

 

Hunting isn't a very good option. Deer, rabbit, bird don't provide significant amounts of meat. You would probably have to take down 8 or 9 deer daily to feed 100 hundred men in your party. That's a lot of hunting. Especially if you are trailing a day behind another 100 man party. And then there is another 100 man party in front of them, and so on and so on.

 

Living off the land in one spot is much easier than living off the land on the move.

[Bob T Dwarf]

Living off the land could work IF Jordan has them converging on Tarwin's Gap in line abreast fashion rather than line astern. That way somebody else hasn't already picked the bushes clean before you get there.

 

But, yeah. All armies create logistical nightmares.

[cloglord]

She was laying the groundwork for a FUTURE army. She wasn't gathering them to ride with her. There weren't 10,000 men camped outside Chachin when Lan got there. She didn't have to worry, at the time, about feeding, staging, and carrying the baggage of all those men.

 

I think you're wrong. Lady Arrel was working on the assumption that Lan was dead, she was actively raising an army. For example take the Case of Canluum, the midsized town outside of Chacin.

 

Easy man...I didn't mean...Burn me, do you mean to say you haven't heard? She's raised the Golden Crane. In your name of course. Since the years turned, she's been from Fal Moran to Maradon, and coming back now...There must be two of three hundred men right here in Canalumm ready to follow her. You, I mean.

 

She's actively recruiting, and they are actively following.

[RobertAlexWillis]

I think you're wrong. Lady Arrel was working on the assumption that Lan was dead, she was actively raising an army. For example take the Case of Canluum, the midsized town outside of Chacin.

 

People were gathering, but she was not WITH them, or slowed down by them, as Lan would be, should they choose to ride WITH him.

 

She's actively recruiting, and they are actively following.

 

Then why were they in Canluum, when she was in Chachin? Why no description of an army camped outside the Kandori capital's gates? Her trip as recorded laid the groundwork. She was going to go back out later to actually pick the army up. You can ride from feast to feast alot faster than an army can travel.

[cloglord]

You can ride from feast to feast alot faster than an army can travel.

 

Not unless you don't stop to eat. Land won't have to stop in every midsized town and give a speech, he won't have to accept the hospitality of every semi-important lord or lady between the world's end and Tar Win's Gap. Most importantly, he won't have much of an army to travel with until he is most of the way there. Most everyone has a head start.

 

Why no description of an army camped outside the Kandori capital's gates?

 

Just because RJ doesn't describe them they don't exist? In all of the books, you and I have only found two descriptions of the bridges to Tar Valon, Did you doubt that they existed up till the moment you read their description? If there were 200 in Canlumm, it can be assumed that there are recruits in Chachin.

 

 

why were they in Canluum, when she was in Chachin?

 

You tell me, is Canluum east or west of Chachin? Maybe they were waiting for her to travel through Calumm, so that they could meet up with her followers there? There isn't enough information to answer this question, and because there is no answer, it is not conclusive nor indicative.

[Guest Anonymous!]

Just because RJ doesn't describe them they don't exist? In all of the books, you and I have only found two descriptions of the bridges to Tar Valon, Did you doubt that they existed up till the moment you read their description?

 

PHAW! Jordan spent an entire chapter describing the difference in silk based on the "attitude" you give your tailor. If there was an army, do you think Jordan would have missed the opportunity to describe the troops raggedy clothing? The current Jordan may not find the actual army important, but do you think he would miss the opportunity to describe their clothes in nauseating detail to us?

 

Not unless you don't stop to eat. Land won't have to stop in every midsized town and give a speech, he won't have to accept the hospitality of every semi-important lord or lady between the world's end and Tar Win's Gap.

 

Cloglord, if you believe Randland only has about 10-15 million people in it, then there aren't any midsized towns spread all over creation. These nations are essentially city-states. There is a large population center around the capital or major city, which includes the cities and surrounding farms population, and then nothing (except maybe small trade posts)for a few hundred miles until you get close to the next major city or capital. So the large cities will be the place where people will rally.

 

You have to remember, Lady Arrel didn't have Lan with her. She was waving a flag and that's it. While that may be inspirational, but would you (putting yourself in the place of a farmer) leave your family and fields because some Lord from another land came around and said they wanted to resurrect Malkieri? Would a lord commit liegemen(ie farmers who work his fields and give him taxes) without either seeing a large following of soldiers or letters of commitment from other lords? Would you risk famine in your lands for an expedition that had a very good chance of not happening? Lady Arrel was garnering support, she was not forming an army ... yet. She needed Lan to pull together an actual army.

 

Without going back to read New Spring she probably had a small contingent of her own troops as guards, and a 1 or 2 man-at-arms from each Lord she had gained support from. I don't actually know how big her traveling contingent was.