Will Lan Reach Tarwin's Gap In Time

[Tommar]

Wow you people sure use a lot of variables in your equations, none of them being cannon.

 

I am suprised nobody brought up that a WOT mile= Roman mile /= an American mile. Not that it really makes a difference but since you all seem to pick up the small things :/

 

Also it is very difficult to judge the speed of a journey in WOT. Some were made longer to suit the plot and some were made pushing believable limits. Some journeys were in winter some in summer some in fall (and yes temperature can make a huge factor on distance even if you don't count things like rain and snow)

 

As for Provisions... Lan as a warder can last on very limited provisions, assuming he did not take enough with him. And the other people joining him would bring their own provisions.

 

I believe that many of the Malikier decendants will already be traveling towards a meeting place and others still following behind Lan. As to how many there are... its impossible to say only RJ knows that.

 

Now the distance itself is debatable over 1000 miles difference in opinions on this forum alone. So again rather difficult to say.

 

Now speeds of marching are known quite well but even within our own military history there are times when armies, even some of considerable size, have moved much much faster then anybody thought possible.

 

It is possible, although pushing the limits, that an army could move such a distance in a few weeks. If RJ decides to do that or not is entirely another arguement

[Guest Anonymous!]

Tommar, its been discussed, just not in this thread. Where did Jordan come out and say 1 mile = 1 Roman mile? We don't know the conversion to and from real world distances. So everything I said in this threads could be completely wrong, *shrugs*, so is 90% of crap posted on the "General" forum anyway, so who cares?

 

All of my distances come from scaling of canon maps and quotes and common sense. We know that Randland is not a flat plain andthe road distances will be affected by hills and road curvature (ie it won't be a straight line).

 

Provisions: My basic assumption is that Randland people are human, and that 1 Randland Mile about equal to 1 US Mile. You need 2000 calories to meet the basic caloric need of a human. For every one mile you burn off about 80 -120 depending on the pace you are going. If you march for 20 miles you will burn off about 3500 calories in a day. A pound of bread has between 1000-1100 calories. So for a march of 20 miles/day you will need about 3 lbs of food. So your proposal that people will just bring their own provisions for the trip means the following:

 

10 days = 30 lbs load

20 days = 60 lbs load

30 days = 90 lbs load

40 days = 120 lbs load

 

If there are infantry, then the people will have to carry their own food! If they are with a horse, they will need to carry extra grain for the horse, because a horse can only have so much of their diet come from grazing. If they are marching across places without water they will need to carry their own water. This of course is simplified since realistically carrying an extra 90 lbs while walking 20 miles burns more calories than a person marching without the 90 lbs load. As I said earlier my analysis was highly optimized, and my worst case scenario from above is still very favorable.

 

Unless you are saying Randland's people are not human?

 

Realistic ways to increase the speed of an army other than a fantasy author saying "they just did." include dividing the army into smaller columns and taking multiple roads, force marching, increasing basic mobility (ie everyone has horses) or marching over a fast surface. We know there is only one major road going across the borderlands, so I don't think Lan has the option of taking multiple roads. Force marching works for relative short periods of time (1-2 weeks), but by the end of that forced march the army is in no shape to fight and needs time to recuperate. Everyone having horses is not very realistic since not everyone owns a horse, they are kind of expensives, especially the kinds needed to make this kind of trek at this kind of pace. He will have infantry and because of the distance he can't force march the entire distance. Since the Borderlands don't appear to have Highway Department I severely doubt they will be able to lay down asphalt to help Lan's march.

 

Tommar name one instance of a non-mechanized, mixed (infantry and cavalry) army marching 2000+ miles in less than 3 weeks.

[cloglord]

Anonymous,

 

You still don't address the proven ability of the US calvary in the late 19th century to travel 60 miles per day, over an extended period of time, while carrying a 200 lb minimum. This says nothing of the terrain found in the Western United States, which I must believe was as harsh or harsher, than the well traveled borderlander trade routes and roadways. Even if he begins picking up followers they are likely going to be calvary. If we divide the trip into rough 4ths, one fourth for each borderland nation, that means that give or take, each country is 625 miles across. If Lan travels at 1/3rd again the speed of the rest of the army moving to meet him at Tarwin's gap, then he will have caught up to, and joined with, about 1/3rd of the people from the furthest point from Tarwin's Gap. A closer look at the map shows that Saldea makes up closer to 1/3rd of the distance between World's end and Tarwin's gap. In short, most all of the people that Lan would catch up to would be Saldean, and most all of the Saldean forces are quick calvary forces. Lets say that slows him down to 2/3rds of the above mentioned US calvary pace, or only 40 miles/day, it still means that Lan and his calvary units would do the full 2500 miles in 62.5 days. 2 months. This of course still does not take into consideration that they would be traveling this entire distance using well maintained trade routes and roads.

 

As for your points on provisions. Under any circumstances, these followers of Lan would not need to carry all of their provisions with them. They would be traveling their entire trip, through civilized countries, that are likely to be highly supportive of them. At the very least they would be able to pick up fresh supplies as they travel through each of the borderland capitals.

 

 

 

We saw Lan in Cairhien after his bond was broken he was still rationale, and we saw he was still able to think and be defiant to Myrelle at the end of the trip. I agree the pull to reach Myrelle was tremendous, so does it make more sense to take the shortest road or the FASTEST road. From Myrelle's internal thoughts:

 

"Myrelle could feel his wounds, some almost healed, some almost fresh. Some badly infected. He would not have gone aside to seek battle. He had come to her, as surely as a boulder tipped down a mountain had to roll on to the bottom. He would not have moved one foot to stand aside from battle either. She had felt his journey in distance and blood; his blood. Across Cairhien and Andor, Murandy and now Altara, through lands infested with rebels and rogues, bandits adn Dragonsworn, focused on her like an arrow speeding to the target, carving his way through any armed man who stood in his path."

 

If he had taken trade road from Cairhien to Aringill to Caemlyn to Lugard down toward Salidar, he would have made much better time and only added a couple hundred miles to his trip. From Caemlyn through Lugard and past the fork near the River Manethererendrelle his "straight line" course would have essentially followed the major trade road. We know the bond only gives general directions and feelings at long distances so Myrelled couldn't have determined if he followed a winding road or "straight as an arrow." The point of the above passage was to portray the urgency felt by Lan to reach her was so great that he couldn't resist the pull, like a boulder couldn't resist gravity, and his focus was directed on her alone, like an arrow aimed at a target. He wouldn't even stray to avoid a fight. That passage was more about the urgency felt by Lan then it was about the path Lan took to get to Myrelle.

 

I think its kind of funny that you would quote a passaage that mentions how Lan would not go out of his way to avoid a fight, and claim that he would go out of his way to make his trip easier. It's equally funny to me that you make the point that Lan was rational enough to pick the easier route, when clearly Lan was at that point homicidal and suicidal. Until he was married to Nynaeve, I would not have classified Lan's state of mind as anything near rational. If Lan's sole goal was to make the trip as fast as he could, and if he were as rational as you claim, he would have realized that even he could not make the trip wounded as fast as he could unhurt. Rationally, he wouldn't have gotten into any fight he didn't need to.

 

The trip from Cairhien to Salidar is about 1780 miles, straight as an arrow. If I throw in an additional 10% for elevation changes,...If I throw on 200 miles onto the "trade route" trip for deviations caused by the road and add the 20% for road curvature, the trip would be ~2600 miles and Lan would have ridden 31 miles per day.

 

So you throw on 10% making it 1958 miles, then another 200 miles, (about another 10%) because you think he's going to go by the road, then add another 20% for road curvature making it 2600 miles? Huh? Not that I'm complaining, if you think he can make 2600 miles traveling by road in 85 days, when I said he could only travel 1780 in 85 days, it only strengthens my case. But lets not stop there, lets say it takes him 20% longer because he make the entire trip while wounded. This means that a similar trip, while healthy, would only take him 68 days. since we are postulating a 2600 mile trip that means that he'd travel at a rate of 38 1/4th miles/day. If we carry that over to the trip from world's end that means he'd make it in 2 months, oh wait I already said that. Does this mean that you agree? Or do you think we should randomly add/subtract some time/distance to make some different point?

[water_seeker]

not to be picky. never that...but it's cavalry not calvary. cavalry is a mounted unit. calvary is where Jesus died.

[cloglord]

W.W. Naismith was a founder of the Scottish Mountaineering Club and a formidable walker and his rule is still used to obtain a rough estimate of the time required for a given expedition (Aitken, 1977; Langmuir, 1984). It is thought that the rule gives a reasonable minimum time, but due to the fact that Naismith was an optimist it is proposed by Wilderness Tech Tips (1998) to take the Naismith value and add 50 %. Additional time can be added according to rests, extra carried weight, poor weather and rough underfoot conditions. The basic rule of Naismith states that a walker can maintain a speed of 5 km/h on level ground, but 1 hour needs to be added for every 600m of ascent.

 

The above quote was taken from a paper published by professors at the university of Leeds and can be found at the following link

 

http://www.geog.leeds.ac.uk/papers/98-7/

 

Lets use the above rule, which appears to be the standard, to calculate the sustainable walking speed of a borderland infantryman. According to Naismith's rule, an average person, in good health should be able to maintain a pace of 3.11 MPH over the course of an extended trek. This means that an infantryman that begins the journey with Lan at world's end, traveling 12 hours/day, would be able to travel 37 1/3rd miles per day. and would be able to walk the distance of 2500 miles provided us by anonymous, in 67 days, or a little over 2 months.

 

Now of course, I recognize that a journey of this magnitude and duration would put strains on the average borderlander, and does not take into account the weight of armor, supplies, etc. However, I feel that there are many other factors to counterbalance these things. First, we have an example from RJ, in the form of the Band of the Red hand. He has them doing 40 miles a day under similar circumstances, hat is, if we assume that there are horses fulling supply wagons, to accompany these infantry troops, and carry their burdens for them. Secondly, by my estimate, nearly a 3rd of the journey would take place in Saldea, which we know has a strong calvary tradition. I would suggest that the number of infantry troops that Lan would/could encounter would be minimal. If we take infantry out of the equation for the 1st quarter of the trip, then we can calculate the longest distance likely for infantry to have to travel at around 1875 miles. Considering that Nynaeve's message would arrive signifigantly before Lan would we can easily envision a sitation where the majority of the borderland infantry would have the full 2 months to travel the much shorter distance of 1875 miles or less. The western Saldean and Kandori infantry would only have to make a pace of 30 miles per day. If you consider that the average speed for male marathon runners average 5.83 mph is it so hard to believe that these western most borderlanders could achieve and maintain a pace half that?

[Vemynal]

i know robert jordan is more factual then some authors but he has included many ways for this army to get there in time.

 

We also have to remember this is a book and even using its own standards of daylight and as many facts as we want Jordan may very well throw something at us we never expected. I seem to remember rand saying he didnt seal 2 of the waygates north of kaldor, maybe they wont attack through tarwin's gap (which lan said they would so they likely will but im hypothesising).

 

 

Just glad to see i'm not the only person on earth who hopes that the 12th book is rather morbid^^.

 

Seems to me so far that if the forces of light could pull it together for a few minutes this would have been over awhile ago :P

[Vemynal]

i know robert jordan is more factual then some authors but he has included many ways for this army to get there in time.

 

We also have to remember this is a book and even using its own standards of daylight and as many facts as we want Jordan may very well throw something at us we never expected. I seem to remember rand saying he didnt seal 2 of the waygates north of kaldor, maybe they wont attack through tarwin's gap (which lan said they would so they likely will but im hypothesising).

 

 

Just glad to see i'm not the only person on earth who hopes that the 12th book is rather morbid^^.

 

Seems to me so far that if the forces of light could pull it together for a few minutes this would have been over awhile ago :P

[Dunedain Fal]

How is it that Aiel could match a cavalry's pace and duration?

 

Answer: They are a fantasy race of people.

 

Same way with Lan and his followers.

[Dunedain Fal]

How is it that Aiel could match a cavalry's pace and duration?

 

Answer: They are a fantasy race of people.

 

Same way with Lan and his followers.

[Tommar]

I hate doing lots of quotes so I will try not to confuse everybody.

 

First off RJ did make measurements known (most glossary's should have it)

 

Length, units of: 10 inches = 3 hands = 1 foot; 3 feet = 1 pace; 2 paces = 1 span; 1000 spans = 1 mile; 4 miles = 1 league so 1 WOT mile = 60k inches while 1 US mile = 63360 inches

 

And to my knowledge the only map published that had any refrence to miles was the one on page 146 of white book and it is not really clear enough to come up with estimates but its better then random guessing.

 

I have to believe that the refugees(malkieri) would be spread out in a consistant with reality pattern. Meaning the vast majority of them would be in shienar and arafel and the farther out you go the fewer and more spread out they would become. This also means the majority of of Malkieri joining Lan would be far ahead of him.

 

As to rations... It should be entirely possible to pick up rations along the way, carrying no more then 1 weeks worth at a time, if that.

 

The farther Lan goes the larger the group with him will get as he overtakes groups on the move already, and the larger the group the slower his own progress will be. Until he hits Chachin he should be moving very quickly and by the time he reaches Shol Arbela he should have enough people tagging along to slow him to sustained marching speeds.

[Tommar]

I hate doing lots of quotes so I will try not to confuse everybody.

 

First off RJ did make measurements known (most glossary's should have it)

 

Length, units of: 10 inches = 3 hands = 1 foot; 3 feet = 1 pace; 2 paces = 1 span; 1000 spans = 1 mile; 4 miles = 1 league so 1 WOT mile = 60k inches while 1 US mile = 63360 inches

 

And to my knowledge the only map published that had any refrence to miles was the one on page 146 of white book and it is not really clear enough to come up with estimates but its better then random guessing.

 

I have to believe that the refugees(malkieri) would be spread out in a consistant with reality pattern. Meaning the vast majority of them would be in shienar and arafel and the farther out you go the fewer and more spread out they would become. This also means the majority of of Malkieri joining Lan would be far ahead of him.

 

As to rations... It should be entirely possible to pick up rations along the way, carrying no more then 1 weeks worth at a time, if that.

 

The farther Lan goes the larger the group with him will get as he overtakes groups on the move already, and the larger the group the slower his own progress will be. Until he hits Chachin he should be moving very quickly and by the time he reaches Shol Arbela he should have enough people tagging along to slow him to sustained marching speeds.

[Trib4l]

@ Anonymous!:

 

As printed in the WoT glossaries:

 

Length, units of: [1 - 7] 10 inches = 3 hands = 1 foot; 3 feet = 1 pace; 2 paces = 1 span; 1000 spans = 1 mile; 4 miles = 1 league.

 

With that equivocation, assuming the base unit of the inch is the same size our mile is 280 feet longer than the WoT mile. That means that the WoT mile is 5000 of our feet, or 60000 inches. Our mile is 63360 inches, or 5280 feet.

 

That means that at a distance of 1000 miles, there will be only about 1/2 mile difference between the endpoint measured in RL miles and WoT miles.

[Guest Anonymous!]

Tommar: Yes that map is to scale, and if you use the 0-3000 miles scale on that map and measure from the center of the Spine of the World to the vertical coast of the World's End next to Saldaea, it will be about ~2400 miles. Or at least that is what I got with a metric ruler. So 2,100 miles to Tarwin's Gap is not that bad of a minimum distance, since all of the maps indicated it is right next to the Spine of the World.

 

I used that map see if the other maps are to scale by using "the greater than 600 miles" from Caemlyn to Cairhein. The main black and white map of Randland in the beginning of the books and in the BWB is pretty close to being scale. Depending on the ruler and the reference measurement on the scale World Map, the distance between Caemlyn to Cairhein works out to be between 590-630 miles.

 

Trib4l and Tommar: Thank you. I have already seen the scaling of Randland units. What I need is the conversion between British Units and Randland Units. And while one can ASSUME that one Randland inch = 1 British Inch, at no point does Jordan come out and say that. For all we know the following could be true:

 

If 1 Randland League = 1 British League

then 1 Ranldand Mile = 0.75 British Miles

and 1 Randland Foot = 0.66 British Feet

and 1 Randland Inch = 0.79British Inches

 

or If 1 Randland Mile = 1 British Mile

then 1 Randland League = 1.33 British Leagues

and 1 Randland Foot = 0.88 British Feet

and 1 Randland Inch = 1.06 British Inches

 

We don't know the conversion. None of these could be true for all we know.

 

Cloglord: I didn't respond to the US Cavalry comment because I forgot to include it in my response. The US Cavalry number is for 5 days and 300 miles. I actually used that 5 days/300 miles in my "worst case scenario" in my first post above. After that I had Lan's pace deteriorate, unless you think he should maintain his best pace indefinitely. Plus most Cavalry units in the 18th and 19th century had height, weight and horse breed requirements. I didn't think a 250 lb farmer, who has never ridden more than 20 miles from his house, and riding on a draft horse should be compared to 5'4", 150 lb experienced Cavalrymen who is riding a horse specifically bred for fast distance riding (thoroughbred?).

 

The Pony Express is certainly not applicable, because the Pony Express had stations located at short intervals with replacement horses saddled and waiting. All the rider had to do was move his mail bags over and begin riding again. Lan will have to find a town, locate a horse dealer, buy a horse (with money he doesn't have), move all his gear and saddle to the new horse, and then begin riding again. Not a good basis for comparison. He will lose hours doing that everyday. Plus every horse in the pony express was chosen for their breed, and there isn't any guarantee that Lan will be able to get another horse of the right caliber.

 

Edit: Oh and I forgot to include this as well. While the farthest I have ever run competitively in my life is 1/2 marathon, and the farthest I have ever run non-competitively is 19 miles, the few people that I know that have run Marathons, certainly couldn't maintain there race pace for 60 days in a row. In fact, most of them took a few weeks off from running long distances.

 

As for people maintaining half that pace and achieving 30+ miles in a day. I don't doubt any "Joe" off the street could do that, but they would be lying in their bed crying their eyes out the next morning from the cramps in their legs. Professional soldiers throughout the history of the world rarely maintained march rates of over 20 miles/day for short durations. The Roman Infantry (best infantry of the Ancient World) could achieve 25+ miles on stone roads, not the dirt roads we have seen in TWoT.

[cloglord]

The pony express thing was toungue in cheek, I of course don't think that he will buy 70some horses and make the trip in 10 days.

 

No, I don't think that a 250lb farmer on a draft horse could maintain that speed, I do think that Lan could maintain that pace for months or better. Considering his warder endurance, it does not seem to be a stretch to me that he could maintain his best pace for the duration.

 

On the breed/riders standard, I would point out 2 things. One, borderlanders are the toughest and most militaristic of the mainland forces. They fight trollocs all the time, even the civilians know how to fight off a trolloc raid. I would argue that the typical borderlander is harder than the typical randlander, or even the typical real lifer. Second, Even this 250 farmer would not have to maintain that pace unless he was the first guy Lan met at world's end. Since I think that Lan will leave most of western Saldea behind him, the closer this hypothetical fat farmer is to tarwin's gap, the slower a pace he can maintain. I don't think that Lan will be gathering forces from the beggining at least, I think that the majority of them will be ahead of him and headed for Tarwin's gap.

 

Your point on running/walking speed is well taken, but I'm not sure that it is entirely accurate. Of course marathon runners take extended breaks between races, my point was that if it is regularly possible to run this length, in this amount of time, it should be possible to maintain half of that pace over the long haul. You are also making your assumptions about what is too much walking, based on your realworld expectations. In a culture where the fastest form of transportation is horses, wouldn't you expect the average person to be used to walking most everywhere they went?

[Jarred Darque]

@ Anonymous!:

 

As printed in the WoT glossaries:

 

Length' date=' units of: [1 - 7'] 10 inches = 3 hands = 1 foot; 3 feet = 1 pace; 2 paces = 1 span; 1000 spans = 1 mile; 4 miles = 1 league.

 

With that equivocation, assuming the base unit of the inch is the same size our mile is 280 feet longer than the WoT mile. That means that the WoT mile is 5000 of our feet, or 60000 inches. Our mile is 63360 inches, or 5280 feet.

 

That means that at a distance of 1000 miles, there will be only about 1/2 mile difference between the endpoint measured in RL miles and WoT miles.

 

 

recheck your math man. 1,000 WoT miles is equel to 946.96 of our miles. that is alot more than a 1/2 mile differance over that distance.

 

As for people who quistion how Aiel can travel farther than a mounted army, it has ben proven time and time again that a well trained and fit human can outrun all but the best of the best long distance horses over the long haul

 

 

As for the guy that said that Lan would only make 10 hours of travel time again... :) not buying it. You gave him 2 hours to set up camp...I give him 5 minutes...we arent talkin about settin up a tent and a 4 poster bed...we are talking about findin a place under a bush if need be. 1 hour per meal to catch and prepare food? I give him 15 minutes to catch food, 30 minutes to prepare food, once a day. eating leftovers for breakfast and lunch, freshfood for dinner. I also do not think that he would hobble the horse every day. I believe he would likely leave the saddle on most of the days, not that that takes longer than 5 minutes to put on and take off (I know this from first hand experience...benefits of bein a Texan) and no more than 15 minutes to brush a horse down if need be done quickly. Also, as has been pointed out dozens of time, Lan liekly only needs around 4 hours of sleep, which means that he can literally travel sunup to sundown, and maybe a bit beyond that if traveling on the road and letting the horse go slowly to avoid injury. Lets push this up some more, Lan is more lightly armorered than calvary units. Mandarb more fit than the avg calvary horse, which would give the two of them increased traveling distance per day. I do not believe that Lan would be traveling with so much as one other person at all in this trip, if someone where to join him, they would simply be told to keep up, he will not slow down if they can't....I only see 2 people he would slow down for if need be, Nynaeve, and maybe Rand..and Moraine I guess

 

Seeing as how TG has to be at least a few months away, sorry there are TOO MANY loose ends to tie up, that should giv e him plenty of time to reach the army that is gathering for him.

[Guest Anonymous!]

Lan's stamina has never been what I questioned, it's the horses. Lan has special powers, not the horse. So it doesn't really matter that Lan is a warder, since one of his powers is not nightvision. He still has to operate like normal people with respects to light.

 

From KoD, Chapter 20:

"That you'll ride to Fal Moran before you enter the Blight, and that if anyone wants to ride with you, you'll let him."

 

I don't know it just seems like he kind of has to take on any riders who say "Lan, I want to fight by your side, let me ride with you." And since duty is heavier than a mountain, and we saw how he takes care of his men in New Spring, I don't think he will just simply abandon men he has sworn to lead.

 

Jarred, so you are saying he will be able to ride for 19 hours a day + 4 hours sleep + 1 hour for camp/food stuff. In your vast experience have you ever ridden a horse for 19 hours straight? Have you ever ridden a horse 19 hours (or even 12 hours) for more than 1 day in a row while leaving its saddle on overnight? As to your comment about "Sunup to Sundown” in most parts of the Northern Hemisphere that is less than 19 hours. In fact, in the continental United States the number of hours of daylight can range from <12 hours to a little more than 15 hours, depending on the season. Since more than likely Lan is traveling in spring and early summer, he will probably be operating with 13-14 hours of light.

 

As for hunting, I do know that its a bit easier to hunt during daylight hours. I severely doubt it will take him 15 minutes to actually CATCH a rabbit or bird, especially at night. He certainly won't take down a deer since he doesn't have a bow. And I just don't see a whole lot of left overs from a 2-3 pound cottontail. Plus, most horses I have seen and ridden tend to perform better when they eat food and drink water. I guess a disciplined horse, like Mandarb, can just wander around in the dark grazing and can find its own water, but it just doesn't seem wise that close to the Blight.

 

All of this takes time ... you are probably right about my estimates being a little high, but dry firewood doesn't collect itself, and constructing a spit to skewer and cook your rabbit just doesn't happen by itself. I guess he can just cook it at the end of a stick and hold the stick by hand. But I tend to find it's never "just" 5 minutes to do anything. And a whole lot of little tasks can build up quickly, and for the most part humans need light to do them. So he needs to stop before the light runs out, that's all I'm saying.

 

*I went back and checked, you are right, he is probably lighter than heavy cavalry since it doesn't appear that he took his armor with him.

 

Lastly, I really don't care if you "buy it." I was just sharing my opinion of how long it will take for Lan to reach Tarwin's Gap under different circumstances. So have fun riding 19 hours on a horse in the dark for 27 days.

[Jarred Darque]

I never said that he would or could ride for 19, I am simply stating that he can and would ride for longer than 10, not taking care of other business such as sleeping, hunting cooking, etc until after the sun is down so as to maximize the time he can spend traveling.

[Mat is the Boss]

I doubt Lan will waste much time hunting anyway, if he`ll travel along the roads, he can buy his food at villages. he can sleep at an inn, and save him the time of making camp. Even if he didn`t bring enough gold, I doubt he would get any difficuties obtaining food and shelter. After all, Nyaneve was offered a meal just for being his wife, Lan will be greeted by every noble in the Borderlands, and given fresh remounts, and food if he asks for it.

[Jaric Mondoran]

Lots of interesting logistics here. I have to say though that I don't understand the furor. Suppose it takes him quite a while to get to the gap, three months or more. Is there strong evidence from the books that this will be too late to meet a Shadowspawn army? I wasn't aware of a strict timetable, particularly given the probably length of MoL.

[Jarred Darque]

honestly, I didnt get the impression that TG was THAT close. I feel that there are way to many loose ends to wrap up to end it in a few weeks, or even a few months. I could see 3 months at the VERY least. some of these people talk like TG is gonna happen with the very next sunrise.

[Vemynal]

well book 9 was a period of a couple weeks, book 10 was like a week if i remember correctly.

 

i think book 11 was about that length also

 

So were just assuming it will be close, especially since alot of characters keep saying it

[Jarred Darque]

Yeah, I know the books have gotten progresively shorter as as of late in the span of time covered, however, I think that RJ wil lrealize that that needs to cool a bit to let things build to a head, and let those loose ends at least get close together before the BIG fight starts

[Jaric Mondoran]

I had forgotten just how short a timespan the last few books covered...

 

Still, I get a strong feeling that there is too much that still has to happen for MoL to continue this trend. There are a good number of relationships I expect to see resolved in one way or another(Siuan/Bryne, Gawyn/Egwene, Tuon/Mat, Morgase/Tallanvor, Moiraine/Thom). This will take time, but I don't think it's in Jordan's nature to leave them hanging. Also, the storylines have become progressively more fragmented and numerous in recent books. This has enabled a lot to happen in minimal time via parallel storylines. Personally I expect many of these separate paths to wind together again as the Last Battle approaches, which would likely stretch events out somewhat.

[RobertAlexWillis]

This will take time, but I don't think it's in Jordan's nature to leave them hanging.

 

Well ... he has said that he won't wrap everything up ... and there are plans for another, much shorter series involving Tuon and Mat some five to ten years after the end of AMoL (per blog post here: http://www.dragonmount.com/RobertJordan/?p=70 ) I would imagine he'll save some of those relationship resolutions for later.

 

Personally, I don't think the pace will slow down at all. The time frame has been a little mixed over the last several books. There are things in WH that happened at the same time as things in TPoD, and CoT ... And there are over two weeks between the last we see of Rand, Egwene, and Lan, and the end of KoD, and at least a week between the last we see of Perrin and Mat before the events covered in the epilogue of KoD. So, much of the first portion of AMoL will probably be events that occurred during the time frame of KoD.

 

Also, for the pace to slow, one side or the other is going to have to back off, take the pressure down a notch. I simply don't see that happening at this point. The Shadow can't let Rand get his feet under him, and Rand can't let Shai'tan get out, which seems imminent, given the wholesale appearance of ghosts, and the increasingly the fluid nature of reality itself. I honestly estimate no more than two weeks, tops, between the arrival of Tuon at Ebou Dar (when she took down Suroth), and the climax of the Last Battle.

 

However, there will be another crisis after the Last Battle, which might actually take more time to resolve. This will probably cover the last third of the book.

 

Anyway, thats my opinion. We won't really know until it comes out.

[Guest Anonymous!]

There are a good number of relationships I expect to see resolved in one way or another(Siuan/Bryne, Gawyn/Egwene, Tuon/Mat, Morgase/Tallanvor, Moiraine/Thom).

 

Jaric: You see, I'm right there with you. After reading Luckers version of what he expects in AMoL in the "A Memory of Light - The Plot (Part Deux)" thread, it makes me wonder if I have truly missed the point of this series. I thought the story was about Rand, and how he was going to save the world at Tarmon Gaidon, and how his 4 childhood friends and 3 mentors were going to help him do that. I also thought the story was about how Men and Women complete each other and that they are at their strongest when working with each other.

 

Even in your comment above you have forgotten the most important interpersonal relationship in all of Randland (in my opinion): Rand and Cadsuane. Rand spent the first 3 books learning who he was and accepting that his life will never be the same (He is the Dragon Reborn and he will die). The next 3 books learning how to deal with his new reality (He will have to re-break the world and hurt the people he loves). The next 3 books were about him completing his transformation into the Champion for the light (In his view this was a heartless person who would do anything to win the Final Battle at any cost). When is his transformation into a human supposed to occur? Because it has been barely shown in the last two books, and months after making her deal with Sorilea she finally mentions "bend like a reed" to Rand in KoD. It's been months and this is the first time that she is trying to show Rand the difference between "hard" and "strong."

 

Jordan appeared to have forgotten this important relationship in the story since we have barely seen them in the last two novels. But he apparently knows how important it is for he went out of his way to describe Cadsuane's character archetype(and why so many of us are wrong for reading the character the way he has written her) in response to one question out of, what I presume, to be millions of fan questions submitted to him. He is now hammering home that Cadsuane is the only person who can teach Rand how to be human in both the small snippets of canon he has provided us with and now outside of canon.

 

And yet how many chapters will be dedicated to this relationship in AMoL? If its like KoD and CoT, probably less than 5% of them. Look I dislike Cadsuane. The tremendous contradictions in her character development will always cause me to hate her. But since Jordan has deemed her to be the "teacher" of Rand, it would be nice to actually see Rand's transformation and not just the end product. You know, like we saw his transformation from a kind and "full of life" youth, into the hopeless, heartless, rigid, and brittle bastard that he is. That will take time to occur and so three months until Tarmon Gaidon would be nice to actually see some character growth.

 

I always viewed Lan's trip as an indication that Jordan will actually take the time to portray that character development. Well I hoped it at least. I guess that's why I jumped all over this topic in reaction to that hope. Lan can't realistically do it quickly, and so Jordan is providing us with an excuse for extending the timeline of the story: Lan needs 5 months to get his growing army to Fal Dara.