Could the Seanchan conquer Randland after Memory of Light?

[WOT1402]

Personally I would say no for a few reasons.

 

Damame can’t link and they don’t have an Adam that works on men. Whereas you have a much larger and more proficient Aes Sedai including male channelers. Given that the series laid so much stress on “men and women working together are stronger” this seems to be a glaring weakness of the Seanchan. In Memory of Light, a group of male and female channellers destroy a whole army of Trollocs. So the Seanchan could learn new abilities but they would be totally outclassed and the numbers and skill advantage they had would wane after Memory of Light. Even during the books, male channellers demolished the Suldam with embarrassing ease. Female channellers main strength comes from their ability to link. So by definition, Seanchan channellers should be much weaker if they insist on using the Adam on them. This didn’t come in to play during the books because they had numbers and experience. 

 

In conventional forces its difficult to say because the number of Seanchan is unclear. However it’s implied to be greater than that of the rest of Randland and the Aiel combined. This army seems to be disciplined and has a solid officer corps. It also has monstrous mounts at its disposal. Plus, it’s very likely that they would, as shown in Aviendhas vision, take gunpowder technology for themselves. So here they would still have an edge. The Seanchan defeated the Shaido Aiel and have a track record of beating any Randland army they fight. However, much of this can be ascribed to their use of Suldam. The quality of this infantry can also be questioned compared to some of the more elite formations such as the Borderlands knights, Two Rivers longbowmen and the Andorran army. The Aes Sedai also have their own army. So instead of a smattering of militia, you instead have many experienced and well trained soldiers used to fighting alongside each other. These armies performed extremely well in the last battle.

 

You would also have to consider the leaders. Basically they have Tuon and she is a Stateswoman and not a General. Most of her generals are depicted as competent. Matt is very unlikely to help her take more of Randland. However she would be facing Perrin and Elayne; two great leaders. Lan up in the borderlands with Nynaeve. 

 

We can also infer that the Seanchan prepared their invasion in advance with information from their scouts. So they only brought an army equal to the task of conquering Randland as they found it. The fact is that the events of the book transformed Randland into basically a collection of very strong kingdoms with a revitalised core of mages. 

 

It is also very likely that a tyrannical and despotic regime like the Seanchan would struggle to control and brainwash its own citizens. It would struggle to justify the maltreatment of Damane if, across the border and in living memory there are examples of channellers who literally saved the world and provide prosperity. Will the people of Ebou Dar submit to having their daughters taken into slavery and tortured? Rebellions have begun for far less cause than that in the real world. It would also have to introduce heavy controls to prevent information on the Suldam being channellers getting out. Such oppressive measures would stifle freedom and create resentment against the government. This, again would contrast with the benefits of a reunited white and black tower. It could mean a return to the prosperity of the ancient past. So they would rapidly overtake the Seanchan in technology and magic. Essentially, the Seanchan would be greatly weakened by trying to impose their way of life. Indeed, their occupation would probably end similar to the Soviet Union in Eastern Europe; refusing to change and falling behind until it implodes.

 

Personally I think the vision Aviendha saw was a warning and wasn’t a potential future; it assumed everything went wrong.

[tkarrde421]

Okay, Devil's Advocate here: Although I agree with all of your points, I can see a way forward towards the apocalyptic future that Aviendha saw.  Let me take you on a hypothetical journey: 

 

• The new Amyrlin (with Egwene dead) screws up complete unification with the Black Tower.
• The White Tower (without the support of the Black Tower) goes to war with the Seanchan territories. This is more-than-likely, since many Aes Sedai were still damane captives of the Seanchan after The Last Battle.
• The Seanchan ultimately win this war since they have channellers that can actually channel without provocation, a huge standing army, and air superiority.  Now they have several hundred (or thousand) more damane, and add Tar Valon to their territories.
• Possible rebellions within the new Seanchan territories are put down hard, like they've always been.  Plus, a good majority of the population is quite content to live in the newly prosperous and crime-free lands.
• After the destruction of the White Tower, Randland sees several hundred years of peace while secretly New Seandar prepares for a New Corenne.
• The Seanchan, taking a lesson from Perrin, hit the Black Tower with a forkroot gambit.  They seed the clouds with forkroot and unleash a rain storm on the Black Tower... which goes into the drinking water.
• The Black Tower, secure in their own invincibility, never sees the threat of a non-channeling army, and is utterly destroyed before they realize it.  Leaving only a handful of trained male channelers to defend the rest of Randland.

And the rest is alt-history ?

 

[Sabio]

One thing you forget, the Randland also now has a large force of channellers who can channel at any time.  Men, wise ones, kin, sea folk.  If Tuon is true to her word any captured damane will be given the option to go to Randland.

 

Tuon has to try an capture her homeland back.

 

And everything in Avi's vision was before the Dragon's peace, so if Seanchan does attack they will face a unified Randland.  One that is aware and better prepared for the Seanchan style of warfare.  Also if Randland ever figures out what their huge stores of ter'angels do, they may have potent weapons.  Imagine what the Sea Folk can do with the bowl of winds.

 

 

[tkarrde421]

Sabio, I agree with you completely!  I'm just proposing that if the White Tower attacks the Seanchan directly, and the WT has no allies, then I think this hands the Seanchan a win.  This windoesn't violate the Dragon's Peace since they were not the aggressors.  If the Seanchan can eliminate the WT, and then wipeout the Black Tower in a quick guerilla-strike, who would stand toe-to-toe against them?  Rand had a hard enough time uniting the nations against the Dark One, and he was the freaking Dragon Reborn?  I fully expect Tuon to keep the Dragon's Peace (especially with the help of Mat), but who's to say what their offspring will do?  "The great battle done,but the world not done with battle."

[TheSociopath]

First, it is shown repeatedly that the average person in seanchan held lands are fine with their rule. 

Not many people would have a daughter taken. 

Also, I think that Tuon and Elayne would be largely comparable in generaling abilities. 

Furthermore I think that there are a number of situations where mat would help seanchan take over the rest of the world. 

I also don't see many situations where the black and white towers wholeheartedly join forces. Both Cadsuane and Logain would want to be the greater partner.

 

As far as Avi's vision goes, that's what would've happened if the aiel where left out of the dragons peace. Now that they are in it, I expect things to continue, as one would expect until the seanchan have control of their randlane holdings and have regained control of Seanchan. They would then proceed to grow on relative power economically as they would have far more potential inventors in their lands.

 

I also think that they would experience a slow movement towards Damane rights through bleed over from the other nations.

[TheSociopath]

Phones are hard...

[Sabio]

Far more potential inventors?  Randland has opened academies and we have seen the Seanchan mostly care about the power as weapons, there is no incentive or desire to let their damane experiment with the power.  If Tuon keeps her word and gives damane the option of leaving, they may not find many women in Randland who are willing to accept captivity.  Even if they take back their homeland, Seanchan is described as a land never truly at peace.  Always experiencing rebellions and such.  Also don't forget Shara, in one of Rand's visions an Aiel was coming back from peacekeeping operations in Shara.  So Randland may have that to balance the Seanchan homeland.

[TheSociopath]

The inventory thing was purely as a function of population

"Land never truly at peace" war time innovation is a thing

What does Shara have to do with the seanchan needing balance from the rest of the world?

[Sabio]

The Seanchan don't need balance, I was pointing out as the Seanchan are taking back their homeland Randland is doing stuff in Shara, so any benefit Seanchan get from unifying their homeland may be offset by the benefits Randland is getting as they do their peacekeeping in Shara.

 

The two biggest advantages Randland has that the Seanchan will never have are men and women channelers working together and being able to link.

[TheSociopath]

Honestly, how closely do you see the Black and White towers working? Sure, there'll be about a hundred pairs of male and female channelers working together, but I really don't see very many more bonds being created.

Furthermore, while Randland could subjegate shara if they worked together, They probably won't. Even if they did, they wouldn't be able to decide which Nation officially would gain control of it.

[Sabio]

I think they will work closely together after the LB, I don't see them joining towers but neither Cas or Logain are dumb.  Logain especially has changed, he went from you can't trust Aes Sedai so the BT needs to be all powerful to seeing how people saw Asha'man as protectors.  he probably will remain mistrustful of Aes Sedai.  Also unlike the WT, the BT isn't interested in politics or trying to influence nations so there isn't a need for them to compete politically.  Both can see the advantages of working together when needed.  But the hatred and mistrust isn't as bad after the Last Battle.  The Reds especially need to find a new purpose. Look at the healing weaves, Yellows have already learned new things from the Asha'man.  So a few might still see each other as enemies but many have already seen they can learn from each other.  There are probably not many times for them to join forces, but both are smart enough to see the danger the Seanchan pose.  So they don't need to be one force, just have to have the ability to join forces when the need does arise.

 

I don't see any one nation controlling Shara, but they can make Shara pro Randland not to mention the advantage of getting them in on the dragon's peace. People won't forget there is still what remains of the army in Shara that sided with the DO.  They won't simply ignore that, in Rand's vision we know the Aiel were in Shara doing peacekeeping.  It wouldn't be surprising if other nations did try to gain influence over there (they are important for trade) but Shara is too important for them to ever risk siding with the Seanchan either.  I suspect there is going to be a long civil war over there with the ones who sided with Bao and those who didn't.

[jsbrads]

Tuon could maintain the peace her whole lifetime. As in the dream, it is her child, or their grandchildren that take Randland down that path. 

[wotfan4472]

The great battle done quote is Nicola Foretelling of Moridin holding Callandor. She is saying the Last Battle is won, but the Dark One has still to be dealt with, and Moridin now at that moment has Callandor.

[jsbrads]

Spoilers

Avienda’s future vision means it is possible.

Tuon could maintain the peace her whole lifetime. As in the “dream”, it is her child, or their grandchildren that take Randland down that path.

All the power in Randland means nothing if it isn’t unified. Galad’s death means Berelain won’t marry into Trakand. Any Andorian alliance with Saldea cannot involve Saldea leaving the border to defend Andor. The only true Alliance that can survive a generation is the Andor/Cairhien super country.

Avi’s vision is telling what will happen, not because it must happen, but because it always had. Hawking’s death lead to the collapse of Randland. For the Wheel of Time to turn, society must collapse or the Wheel will stop turning. 

Edited February 18, 2019 by jsbrads

[Sabio]

You forget Ishy had a big hand it all the major anarchy after the bore was sealed even the civil war after Hawking's death.  Ishy goal was to ensure the land never unified and stayed weak to make the DO's job easier  Without Ishy interference and with the Dragon's peace the land finally has a chance to build up to something.   Galad lives and with no blightborder to defend anymore the border nations no longer have to worry about the blight.  Not to mention the deal Tuon made with Egwene about channelers who wish to leave Seanchan could have a big impact.  but 200 or 300 years down the line who can really say.  It's possible 300 years down the road now that the Seanchan might not even be a whole nation anymore.  But I will say I think Rand's biggest accomplishment will be setting up randland for success.  With the Dragon's peace, opening  academies, even reminding Asha'man that they aren't weapons but people. 

[jsbrads]

The Blight border won’t have peace for many years. And that peace won’t just eventually happen on its own.

Randland needs to be unified to accelerate technological advancement and channeling ability. And only after significant advancement, a unified Randland can begin the multi-decade project of cleaning the Blight.

1. Military, kill all the major populations.

2. Sterilization, systematic destruction all plants, bugs, etc. 

3. Supernatural cleansing, power based.

[Sabio]

You saw how quickly the blight was changing just after the last battle, while RJ confirmed shadowspawn die if the DO gets sealed away.  So just going by the speed that was seen right after the fight, without the DO's influence it shouldn't take too long for the blight to be gone.  Also will Rand share the growing song?

 

The interesting question will be what is done with all the land freed from the blight.  We know Malkier is going to be reformed, but what of the other land?  Will  new nations arise or will the border nations expand?

Edited February 20, 2019 by Sabio

[Apple151]

Almost anyone could have conquered Randland as poeple call it at almost any time... pretty much anyone except rand.

 

It's a familiaar issue in fiction at times which is the all conquering super hero figure is presumed some kind of equivalent

world level power and so on when that's just not the case...

 

WoT consists of a large place with a vast amount of interactions between different people... and it's clear after

The fall of tear that even though Rnad possesses a great deal of magic and power and allies it's no better

than faction for getting people into and out of trouble and bad situations... which is altogether pretty neat on it's

own.

[Sabio]

It's unlikely the Seanchan will ever turn on Randland as long as Mat is alive, I can't see him helping the Seanchan conquering his home and possibly collaring his sister.  I so wanted to read the outrigger series to see what Mat's long term influence on the Seanchan will be.  If Tuon died he would be Emperor.

[jsbrads]

If Tuon dies, Mat just becomes a noble. 

[mb]

about adam for men; Knife of Dreams revealed copies of the original.

some chance that they had more than what was revealed.

 

edit::  like others posted, Randland would likely be united if the Seanchan were to come against them.

Edited April 20, 2019 by mb

[jsbrads]

Unless the glass pillars depict the most likely scenario... they depicted Randland divided before the Seachan. 

[mb]

the future seemed to change when the Aiel were added to Dragon's Peace.

 

[Sabio]

They won because of two things, first nations didn't fight them all at once and second the more channelers they caught the more powerful they got.  Avi saw how it harmed the nations to have their channelers captured and then turned against them.  With the Aiel in the dragon peace and willing to talk to the Seanchan instead of immedietly fighting the future will change. 

Edited April 22, 2019 by Sabio

[Guest John Henry]

I think the seachan are going to have a civil war once it becomes known sul damn can channel. Especially since tuon herself is a sul damn. There entire culture is based around Damne. Once that goes they break down into warring factions.