Tarmon Gaidon [Advanced Mafia] Game Over

Tiinker · September 24, 2016

I wrote this in the QT before Day ended so I'll just post it here. It obviously needs to be updated to include info on NKs but I'll post it anyway

--

I’m ready to give Shad a clear atp. He was one of the first to vote Hellion, #877 I’d hard to believe is him like a preparing to bus cuz there’s no freaking way scum are going to bus this OP char until they absolutely have to (Execute, Strongman, Severing, Gladiator wtf). So to me that also means Nolder suddenly has a lot more town equity as 3rd vote.

QED the people super reluctant to vote Hellian or people who didn’t even try are likely scum. I think the chance of a CFD was pretty low given the quality of posts nearing the end and lack of a scum target so it’s likely that the people sticking up for Hellian probably aren’t scum either (Hallia #1117, Cass #1087). Believer could’ve gone with Hellian as a target instead of JS but emphasised not liking JS since he was most obvious target at that point. His other option was probably to jump ship to Hellian but he wouldn’t do that if they’re teammates given the strength of Demandred’s role.

Zass - basically clear atp. First to vote Hellian and kept at it. Swapped and swapped back. Basically clear.

Dice - #944 no read on Hellian.

Pral - “Hellian - Not much to comment here. She is new and I don’t know how she plays. Still don’t know the votes on her.”
His comments at the end of D1 gave him a more town vibe but his I’ll disagree with his reads list even more now.

Darthe - Hasn’t commented on Hellian. Says Dice and Nol look fine after not much content. Could see that as someone acting on TMI.

Believer - #1169. Orly.

WiFi - 9.15 pm Hellian is null #1139. 10.42 pm Hellian is scum. #1196 “That being said I think hellion could be scum, as described in my reads list..” he wasn’t really described as such in your reads, plus this kind of reads insecure about being caught out.

Last 5 people on the train were Kat, Hallia, WiFi, Dice, and Darthe

From this group I’ve got town leans on Dice and Hallia.

Leaves WiFi, Believer, Darthe, and Kat.

I think remaining scum are variation of these 4 but I’d guess Darthe and Believer aren’t W/W.

From the discussion that we had in the QT Hellian could’ve used his execute ability on Believer and cut the day short since it was fairly obvious he was toast with limited time left but he didn’t. Either he just didn’t join the thread at all or he didn’t want to kill Believer for scum mate reasons. Darthe potentially scum slipped in the TAR thread, ISO’ing there’s not a single post towards irt Hellian though he comments on Believer not being around #1232.

Cool with voting Darthe, Believer, or WiFi today.

--

Tiinker · September 24, 2016

Darthe went nowhere last night btw. I'm gonna be gone for most of tomorrow so I'll probably check back in Sunday or tomorrow evening. Sleeping now cause it's 1.30 am

Wildfire Sedai · September 24, 2016

But one thing that sticks out and youve used it more then once is the "if you think Im a good player or you don't"

Every player knows that ANYONE CAN AND HAVE made mistakes regardless of skill level man.

Misleading the thread into accepting incorrect game mechanics would be a calculated move. I'd have to think about that and then weigh the pros and cons of it.

When I post a mechanical analysis I know that it's going to be fact checked, people aren't just going to take my word for it. Am I really that stupid/bad as to try to pull that scam off? When I know for a fact that it's going to get called out? That would be incredibly poor play.

Indeed, my analysis puts the spotlight on myself if I have it right. Remember that the cornerstone of my argument was that there has to be scum in the Stedding. I included myself in that list.

So I screw myself in either case, if I'm scum. Either people believe me and I'm in a group of 5 that will be looked at very closely, or I get called out and called scum for misleading the thread.

Am I going to pull that, knowing that both outcomes bite me in the behind?

Absolutely....cause as you quoted....everyone makes mistakes....you see I'm trying to figure out if we were all town in the stedding....or if there really was one wolf....I kind of believe your reasoning that there has to be 1 wolf...but I am wondering if the wolf that was supposed to come to the stedding FORGOT to put their choice in ahead of time and that's what darthe was talking about...but I have darthe as townie...oh the twists and turns..... :huh:

Shad_ · September 24, 2016

@ Tiink #1351, scrolling through BFG's ISO I don't see any vote counts where Believer had four votes, so I don't know that she could have Executed him.

Snow had four votes for a while and I never pieced this together last night. lolme

Shad_ · September 24, 2016

Also the Wifi progression threw me for a loop last night too until I read the fine print. let me pulli t up for you

Shad_ · September 24, 2016

/snip/

11. Hellian - Null

/snip/

OR

There is the possibility of a pral/hellian/hallia/believer mafia team and here's why: They are trying to slide under the radar. It's not like it wasn't done before. I don't think its totally likely but I do think there is a possibility of there being at least 1 maybe 2 er maybe 3 maybe just maybe in that combo.

Cass · September 24, 2016

GOATSSSSSS!!!!! TWO DOWNNN AND WE'RE COMING FOR YOU, WOOOLLVVESSSSSSSSS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

We had a couple of people say they didn't choose their location at all, and some said they chose one location and ended up there

Dice mentioned something similar last night with a suggestion it looked good for him. o_0. I don't get it.

@Hallia and @Dice WHY is this a point? Why would it be a good thing?

Darthe, could you please give me a read list when you get a chance? I know you're not a read list kind of guy, but it would help me a lot.

^ times a thousand.

Zander wtf are you doing

Nolder now flipping Town makes me think my Kat read is a little more likely.

Im trying not to direct quote and failing!!!!!

lololololol

Zander, I love you and I see where your head is at, but if that counts as quoting...

What do we think the odds are that a kill was attempted in TAR? I protected someonr, wondering the likelihood of them being clear.
For your information I shot John from within TAR. I had a one shot vig that only worked on someone within TAR with me. I wanted to shoot Believer but John was a good second choice.

I kind of LOVE THIS TO THE MOON AND BACK!!!

Believer/Kat competing trains???????

Best Marsh!

I protected Tiink

Why?

Believer · September 24, 2016

From the discussion that we had in the QT Hellian could’ve used his execute ability on Believer and cut the day short since it was fairly obvious he was toast with limited time left but he didn’t. Either he just didn’t join the thread at all or he didn’t want to kill Believer for scum mate reasons. Darthe potentially scum slipped in the TAR thread, ISO’ing there’s not a single post towards irt Hellian though he comments on Believer not being around #1232.

Consider this.

If I was indeed a scumbuddy of Hellian, am I more valuable than him/her?

Hellians role was incredibly strong, most likely the strongest in the game. If they were present at EoD and able to save themselves, it would've been the right choice to make, regardless of who they sacrifice.

Hellian also had the following:

Once during the game you may challenge somebody to a Gladiator match. PM me and I will announce the challenge in thread. All votes will be removed and the lynch will be decided between you and the person you challenge. Once the challenge has been issued day will switch to hammer and votes will be locked.

Hellian could've challenged anybody, a town even. Granted it would've been only a slim chance of success, but greater than 0% which was the EoD percentage for him/her.

All of these indicate that the person was not present at EoD. That removes your link between me and Hellian.

Tiinker · September 24, 2016

@ Tiink #1351, scrolling through BFG's ISO I don't see any vote counts where Believer had four votes, so I don't know that she could have Executed him.

Snow had four votes for a while and I never pieced this together last night. lolme

I'm pretty sure he had 3 and she could've voted him.

Believer · September 24, 2016

But one thing that sticks out and youve used it more then once is the "if you think Im a good player or you don't"

Every player knows that ANYONE CAN AND HAVE made mistakes regardless of skill level man.

Misleading the thread into accepting incorrect game mechanics would be a calculated move. I'd have to think about that and then weigh the pros and cons of it.
When I post a mechanical analysis I know that it's going to be fact checked, people aren't just going to take my word for it. Am I really that stupid/bad as to try to pull that scam off? When I know for a fact that it's going to get called out? That would be incredibly poor play.

Indeed, my analysis puts the spotlight on myself if I have it right. Remember that the cornerstone of my argument was that there has to be scum in the Stedding. I included myself in that list.

So I screw myself in either case, if I'm scum. Either people believe me and I'm in a group of 5 that will be looked at very closely, or I get called out and called scum for misleading the thread.

Am I going to pull that, knowing that both outcomes bite me in the behind?

Absolutely....cause as you quoted....everyone makes mistakes....you see I'm trying to figure out if we were all town in the stedding....or if there really was one wolf....I kind of believe your reasoning that there has to be 1 wolf...but I am wondering if the wolf that was supposed to come to the stedding FORGOT to put their choice in ahead of time and that's what darthe was talking about...but I have darthe as townie...oh the twists and turns.....

I wouldn't make that mistake, not with the time I had at my disposal and the outs offered to me by Shad in the QT. I'd probably be the worst player to ever play if I did.

Can you see the astronomical odds of this?

Shad_ · September 24, 2016

@ Tiink #1351, scrolling through BFG's ISO I don't see any vote counts where Believer had four votes, so I don't know that she could have Executed him.

Snow had four votes for a while and I never pieced this together last night. lolme

I'm pretty sure he had 3 and she could've voted him.

14p hammer is 8 votes, Execute was half-hammer so takes 4 votes.

Shad_ · September 24, 2016

I mean I don't have it pulled up right now, I guess if she wasn't voting him at the time she could have piled on and made it four but it would have full outed her Pral style

Shad_ · September 24, 2016

Yeah iirc she parked on ZanderCass all phase.

Believer · September 24, 2016

I mean I don't have it pulled up right now, I guess if she wasn't voting him at the time she could have piled on and made it four but it would have full outed her Pral style

Please read my post regarding Hellians EoD.

Cass · September 24, 2016

So here's my state of mind right now

If wolves sent a rep to the Stedding, one of ZanCass, Dice, Wifi, or Believer is scum.

I was dead convinced last night that ZanCass Dice and Wifi were all town, thought the wolf had to be Nolder or Believer.

Nolder's a dead villager. Does Believer make any sense considering he was a wagon with Snow and Hellian?

It would basically require that we had 3 competing wolf trains on D1.

Seems like a stretch.

Any of ZC/Dice/Wifi being wolf seems like a stretch.

Wolves not sending a rep to the Stedding seems like a stretch.

Conclusion: :???:

I had it in my mind Believer didn't vote JS last night. Perhaps nvm. Dude needs another ISO

So here's my state of mind right now

If wolves sent a rep to the Stedding, one of ZanCass, Dice, Wifi, or Believer is scum.

I was dead convinced last night that ZanCass Dice and Wifi were all town, thought the wolf had to be Nolder or Believer.

Nolder's a dead villager. Does Believer make any sense considering he was a wagon with Snow and Hellian?

It would basically require that we had 3 competing wolf trains on D1.

Seems like a stretch.

Any of ZC/Dice/Wifi being wolf seems like a stretch.

Wolves not sending a rep to the Stedding seems like a stretch.

Conclusion: :???:

3x3+2/45*54=Scum!Shad

Cool so Town or SK if not 4 Scum

I feel ok with my D1 read.

<3 <3 <3

Snow TMI'd four scum. Going to roll on that assumption and not worry about SKs unless the game doesn't end.

Darthe wrote that he didn't chose a night location, and neither did some others. How would he know this.

In game or last night?

If in game can you show me?

If it's Kat and Darthe then lol y'all can concede right now.

I HAVE THOUGHTS ON THIS!!!!!!!

lololololol

Also PC being "monitored heavily".

sadface,gif

ME AND CASS SHOULD EACH BE GIVEN A 1 HOUR PASS WHEN ALIVE ON NEW DAY START IMO

Zander, I love you and love you and love you but oh the tinfoil lololol LET'S JUST WRECK THE WOLVES!!!!

Tiinker · September 24, 2016

I mean I don't have it pulled up right now, I guess if she wasn't voting him at the time she could have piled on and made it four but it would have full outed her Pral style

Maybe, I can't remember the timeline and I'm too tired to look it up now, but I already felt better about him given the John Snow turned out scum. I gotta do a reread tomorrow cause I'm way too tired now and see what has been said today but if I had to vote now it'd be Darthe or WiFi.

Shad_ · September 24, 2016

I mean I don't have it pulled up right now, I guess if she wasn't voting him at the time she could have piled on and made it four but it would have full outed her Pral style

Please read my post regarding Hellians EoD.

I disagree that scum would necessarily kill a capable wolf over dead weight with good PRs, but certainly some would. Depends on the mentality of the team comp. I generally agree with you that she appeared to have completely bailed by the time she got strung up.

I don't think Hellian not Glad or Executing you makes you a wolf, basically.

Shad_ · September 24, 2016

I've got about two hours before I'm gone for the weekend. I'm going to spend them ISOing people.

We've got 3 mislynches, so that's cool.

Tiinker · September 24, 2016

I mean I don't have it pulled up right now, I guess if she wasn't voting him at the time she could have piled on and made it four but it would have full outed her Pral style

Please read my post regarding Hellians EoD.

I disagree that scum would necessarily kill a capable wolf over dead weight with good PRs, but certainly some would. Depends on the mentality of the team comp. I generally agree with you that she appeared to have completely bailed by the time she got strung up.

I don't think Hellian not Glad or Executing you makes you a wolf, basically.

For the record, I don't think it necessarily makes him a wolf. I was stating possible conclusions. Given that it was between JS and Hellian I feel like if bussing/distancing was the play he would've just distanced from Hellian instead of distanced from JS. The JS flip changes things.

Tiinker · September 24, 2016

Okay, I'm actually going to bed now.

Zander? · September 24, 2016

Kat I see you online....come talk to me please?!?!?!?

Ill play nice.

<3 <3 <3

Believer · September 24, 2016

I mean I don't have it pulled up right now, I guess if she wasn't voting him at the time she could have piled on and made it four but it would have full outed her Pral style

Please read my post regarding Hellians EoD.

I disagree that scum would necessarily kill a capable wolf over dead weight with good PRs, but certainly some would. Depends on the mentality of the team comp. I generally agree with you that she appeared to have completely bailed by the time she got strung up.

I don't think Hellian not Glad or Executing you makes you a wolf, basically.

The central point I was trying to make is that she could've used Gladiator on a townie, to give herself a >0% of surviving. There was literally no reason not to do this.

Also I will disagree with you if you're calling me a capable wolf. I've never played scum so I wouldn't have the slightest idea of how to do it.

Wildfire Sedai · September 24, 2016

hmmmm.....beginning to wonder...

@tiink: are you a misguided townie or a wolf in disguise...I am so completely TOWN it ain't funny...could you and darthe be in it together....I could so see you and darthe bussing each other...or at least you bussing darthe...I don't know where darthe is...if he went to bed or what??? but if he didn't would normally see a rebuttal to this...

I mean I don't have it pulled up right now, I guess if she wasn't voting him at the time she could have piled on and made it four but it would have full outed her Pral style

Maybe, I can't remember the timeline and I'm too tired to look it up now, but I already felt better about him given the John Snow turned out scum. I gotta do a reread tomorrow cause I'm way too tired now and see what has been said today but if I had to vote now it'd be Darthe or WiFi.

Wildfire Sedai · September 24, 2016

1.- Null -

2. - Null
3. - Null
4. - Null - Townie - .
5.
6._ Null
7. - Null -
8. - Null -
9. - Null -
10.- Null
11. - Null
12. - Null
13. -
14. -

WIFI - TOWN QUEENIE

Nolder

Zander/Cass

Ironeyes

Hallia

Dice

Believer

Shad

Darthe

Tiinker

Pral

Kat

Hellian

John Snow

Believer · September 24, 2016

Seems thread is pretty dead.

I'll most likely be back in about 14-15 hours, got family stuff to do tomorrow.

See you. <3

Tarmon Gaidon [Advanced Mafia] Game Over

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