[Advanced]Lost mafia - Game over - Sili, SK wins!

Darthe · May 16, 2016

Yeah its maybe not the best time to try and lead. What do you think of the attention you're getting?

Darthe · May 16, 2016

Celeste could you make some sort of chart that shows how your logic progresses? Dead serious btw, I wanna see you work out your math apl the way through at least once.
I look for fake tone mostly and patterns that don't add up with someone's previous game. That shows if they come from a town or scum mindset. That's why when new people play i'm like in the background or people I don't know how to read well. I have said this in previous games Darthe. It's why i'm pushing Turin because I don't think he's town.

This reads to me as you stating that you guess in a convoluted way. Youre expecting people to be static and consistent and youre grasping for whatever you find that looks different based on a couple of games worth of interaction. Thats not being said to judge, but rather to point out that it's maybe not a strong process.

May 16, 2016

Yeah its maybe not the best time to try and lead. What do you think of the attention you're getting?

Lol no definitely not.

I don't know. I'm not liking it but there's not much I can do about it, is there? I'm used to it as scum but it's different then. Then, it's a mistake I made that drew attention to me. Then, I find what I did wrong and try to learn from it. Now... I don't know. There's literally nothing I can think of that I can say to sound like the town I am.

Fwiw, I think turin said I can talk myself out of things. But I can't. I really can't. I get extremely defensive. You can see it in every game I've played. There's no talking myself out of it.

Celeste · May 16, 2016

Celeste could you make some sort of chart that shows how your logic progresses? Dead serious btw, I wanna see you work out your math apl the way through at least once.
I look for fake tone mostly and patterns that don't add up with someone's previous game. That shows if they come from a town or scum mindset. That's why when new people play i'm like in the background or people I don't know how to read well. I have said this in previous games Darthe. It's why i'm pushing Turin because I don't think he's town.

This reads to me as you stating that you guess in a convoluted way. Youre expecting people to be static and consistent and youre grasping for whatever you find that looks different based on a couple of games worth of interaction. Thats not being said to judge, but rather to point out that it's maybe not a strong process.

Yet it is because I have in most of games spotted out the whole mafia team. Why did you bring this up?

Darthe · May 16, 2016

Yeah its maybe not the best time to try and lead. What do you think of the attention you're getting?
Lol no definitely not.
I don't know. I'm not liking it but there's not much I can do about it, is there? I'm used to it as scum but it's different then. Then, it's a mistake I made that drew attention to me. Then, I find what I did wrong and try to learn from it. Now... I don't know. There's literally nothing I can think of that I can say to sound like the town I am.

Fwiw, I think turin said I can talk myself out of things. But I can't. I really can't. I get extremely defensive. You can see it in every game I've played. There's no talking myself out of it.

Im not the best to listen to by far but id not bother trying to sound like anything if I was in your shoes. It looks unnatural.

Darthe · May 16, 2016

Celeste could you make some sort of chart that shows how your logic progresses? Dead serious btw, I wanna see you work out your math apl the way through at least once.
I look for fake tone mostly and patterns that don't add up with someone's previous game. That shows if they come from a town or scum mindset. That's why when new people play i'm like in the background or people I don't know how to read well. I have said this in previous games Darthe. It's why i'm pushing Turin because I don't think he's town.
This reads to me as you stating that you guess in a convoluted way. Youre expecting people to be static and consistent and youre grasping for whatever you find that looks different based on a couple of games worth of interaction. Thats not being said to judge, but rather to point out that it's maybe not a strong process.

Yet it is because I have in most of games spotted out the whole mafia team. Why did you bring this up?

Youve spotted whole teams by sussing evry player at some point. Thats not a skill Celeste, ive been there.

Celeste · May 16, 2016

Celeste could you make some sort of chart that shows how your logic progresses? Dead serious btw, I wanna see you work out your math apl the way through at least once.
I look for fake tone mostly and patterns that don't add up with someone's previous game. That shows if they come from a town or scum mindset. That's why when new people play i'm like in the background or people I don't know how to read well. I have said this in previous games Darthe. It's why i'm pushing Turin because I don't think he's town.
This reads to me as you stating that you guess in a convoluted way. Youre expecting people to be static and consistent and youre grasping for whatever you find that looks different based on a couple of games worth of interaction. Thats not being said to judge, but rather to point out that it's maybe not a strong process.
Yet it is because I have in most of games spotted out the whole mafia team. Why did you bring this up?

Youve spotted whole teams by sussing evry player at some point. Thats not a skill Celeste, ive been there.

I have not suspected everyone because you have only seen a small bit of my play really. You just don't seem town this game.

Darthe · May 16, 2016

Is.. Is that a turnaround?

Shad_ · May 16, 2016

that line takes that post from answering her question to insinuating that she knew that in a bad way. the tone of that line is sneering.

kinda like but you ALREADY knew that DIDNT YOU!!!???

Thanks for putting words into my mouth. You are assuming my tone there. maybe I needed to put a winky emoji in there for you.

Aye, a wink would have changed the tone. But it's not putting words in your mouth to directly quote you. It's how I interpreted the tone too, independently of Dice.

Zander? · May 16, 2016

I think Kivam might have been killed because of his claim. Zander is the kill I don't understand.

Ummm what?

Shad_ · May 16, 2016

Before I finish catching up, Darthe. I tend to think of you as our resident Turin reader. He had a lot to say this morning. What is your stance?

Zander? · May 16, 2016

Turin is being really TMI this whole game and his tone/back tracking comments are doing him much. Nobody has gotten an answer from him on why he thinks their is an SK. This setup is closed and mostly seen VT flips. I'm not sure on much except that Turin is being super scummy.

Darthe is super null to me and doesn't really sit well with him saying little and not voting. I want him to answer these questions.

What are your top scum?

What do you think about besie compared with her other games?

Lenlo is mostly giving complete BS for me being scum. I don't really understand it when it's basically my usual play.

Whats BS about it?

Can you explain/give examples?

Shad_ · May 16, 2016

Zander being the nk was my first guess. Kivam didn't make sense just then for scum to kill. He was a day 1 counter-wagon claimed vanilla. If the scum kill him and there's no vigilante who hero shots Zander it brings a lot of negative attention to Kivam's scumreads which would have been the only justification for killing him therefore it was basically -ev play for scum to make in whatever scenario you can dredge up.

Shooting an outed VT is never intelligent play, and there were confirmed towns to eliminate. Lots of people legit sussed Kivam. SK needs to kill wolves. Town vig needs to kill wolves. I mean it's always possible that something crazy happened but I think we can safely assume Kiv probably wasn't a mafia shot and move on.

Shad_ · May 16, 2016

Because it was irrelevant. It was the initial post that is damning. Think back to the Eldrick voting Thane and then Turin back when Eld and Thane were mafia together. That is what it means to slip. Just because she (and he did as well) went back and caught it does not erase the first post.

I am more inclined to correct statements like that as a villager for a number of reasons. Whether they apply to Besie depends on how her mind ticks, but I think it's absolutely relevant to a degree.

Zander? · May 16, 2016

I think Kivam might have been killed because of his claim. Zander is the kill I don't understand.

Can you explain?

I think with Hallia flipping her role that Kivam is basically cleared going into D2.

Even if that did make sense, which it doesnt to me, you think Kiv who was the other leading train would be lock cleared by everyone else and even more so was killed by Scum for a VT which they would believe because if he was a PR he claim it in that spot instead of PR hunting....????

I dont buy it.

Darthe · May 16, 2016

Before I finish catching up, Darthe. I tend to think of you as our resident Turin reader. He had a lot to say this morning. What is your stance?

Lukewarm, he has is different than he used to be. I've been having a tough time with him actually, its half the reason I voted him.

Turin Turambar · May 16, 2016

that line takes that post from answering her question to insinuating that she knew that in a bad way. the tone of that line is sneering.

kinda like but you ALREADY knew that DIDNT YOU!!!???

Thanks for putting words into my mouth. You are assuming my tone there. maybe I needed to put a winky emoji in there for you.

Aye, a wink would have changed the tone. But it's not putting words in your mouth to directly quote you. It's how I interpreted the tone too, independently of Dice.

but what he stated how he read it did add words. DIDN'T HE!!!?!?!

MUAHAHAHA

:smile:

Shad_ · May 16, 2016

I am NOT saying that her math is wrong. I am saying that she framed the results in a manner to cast more doubt on townies than on people that I have found suspect during the course of the game. Kiv was town. I know I;m town (I understand this is my PoV and you may not be able to see that for whatever reason). Celeste has been a question mark to me. Darthe has been a bit weird but I am sort of waiting to see what happens by end of day. I am saying that the people I think are townies are getting put nearer the top of the list to make it look like they are worse than the ones below. It is a psychological thing IMO. Start at tht top of the list and work your way down. The pattern repeats going down the list as Shad (claimed mason) and Hallia (dead townie) are both above Seph.

(5) Kivam dead townie

(4) Turin I know I'm town

(4) Celeste: unknown

(4)Darthe: unknown

(3) Shad claimed mason

(3) Hallia dead townie

(3) Seph: unknown

(2) Sili: unknown

(2) Nyn/Z2.0: unknown

(2) Thane claimed mason

(1) Besie: unknown

That's a bit of a stretch I think, and it only makes sense if the scum team is all within Besie, Celeste, Darthe, and Seph.

If it is then lolBesie but I've personally never even considered this sort of thing as a wolf.

Zander? · May 16, 2016

Lol Len

I'm leaving it to 50/50. I am for both Hallia and Kivam, so let's see.

Yeah I know. What happened to trusting your town core Bess? I thought 6 voices were better then 1? I thought you were bringing them togther to FIGHT THE RANDOM

Lol Len. I don't see what your problem is, honey. It was an idea that you obviously hated. Only 3 towns actually went for the plan.

... okay 3 people that I hope is town.

Lol Len

I'm leaving it to 50/50. I am for both Hallia and Kivam, so let's see.

Yeah I know. What happened to trusting your town core Bess? I thought 6 voices were better then 1? I thought you were bringing them togther to FIGHT THE RANDOM
Lol Len. I don't see what your problem is, honey. It was an idea that you obviously hated. Only 3 towns actually went for the plan.

After day ended but before hallia flipped.

Wanna reconsider???

No not really.

Why didnt you quote her follow up.

Because it was irrelevant. It was the initial post that is damning. Think back to the Eldrick voting Thane and then Turin back when Eld and Thane were mafia together. That is what it means to slip. Just because she (and he did as well) went back and caught it does not erase the first post.

I disagree that it was irrelevant.

And Besie is not Eldrick so that also makes no sense.

I think youre looking for things to solidify your read Scum read on her but leaving other important parts out and thats a bad look imo.

Turin Turambar · May 16, 2016

Before I finish catching up, Darthe. I tend to think of you as our resident Turin reader. He had a lot to say this morning. What is your stance?
Lukewarm, he has is different than he used to be. I've been having a tough time with him actually, its half the reason I voted him.

What's the other half?

Sili Quirrels · May 16, 2016

How about you give an updated reads lists with reasons?

Town - Shad, Dice, Thane, Celeste

Null - NZan, Eldrick

Perhaps scum - Sili, Darthe

Scum - Turin, Seph, Lenlo

Town - same reasons as last time.

Null - Funshine Bear because I don't know; I'm still biased. Eldrick I'm still deciding on but there's been a few off posts. There's also been a few good posts.

Perhaps scum - Sili because there's been a few odd posts that I disliked, constantly giving mixed reasons. Darthe was in my scum reads previously - felt more towny since p75.

Scum - reasons as before. Even more convinced Turin is scum now. Atm I think the scum team (if there's only 3) is Turin/Seph/and. Still deciding who the "and" is.

You didn't attempt to understand my posts so I don't even.

Shad_ · May 16, 2016

that line takes that post from answering her question to insinuating that she knew that in a bad way. the tone of that line is sneering.

kinda like but you ALREADY knew that DIDNT YOU!!!???

Thanks for putting words into my mouth. You are assuming my tone there. maybe I needed to put a winky emoji in there for you.

Aye, a wink would have changed the tone. But it's not putting words in your mouth to directly quote you. It's how I interpreted the tone too, independently of Dice.

but what he stated how he read it did add words. DIDN'T HE!!!?!?!

MUAHAHAHA

Explicitly paraphrasing your statement to convey the tone he took from it is not the same thing...

Darthe · May 16, 2016

Before I finish catching up, Darthe. I tend to think of you as our resident Turin reader. He had a lot to say this morning. What is your stance?
Lukewarm, he has is different than he used to be. I've been having a tough time with him actually, its half the reason I voted him.
What's the other half?

Trying to make smoke brah

Turin Turambar · May 16, 2016

Z, do you think I'm mafia? If so vote me and be prepared to justify it WHEN I flip townie.

Do you think it means anything that Bes asked everyone how their reads would change IF she flipped town? Like it was a rhetorical question.

Zander? · May 16, 2016

Okaaaaayyyyy peeps! So everybody's votes were just scattered everywhere.

OFFICIAL VOTE COUNT:

Eldrick (1) - Shad

Thane (1) - Turin

Seph (2) - Thane, Dice

Hallia (1) - Kivam

Celeste (2) - Lenlo, Nyn

Darthe (1) - Eldrick

Turin (1) - Celeste

Dice (1) - Seph

Kivam (1) - Sili

Not voting (4): Darthe, Hallia, Zander, Besie

With 15 alive there are 8 to lynch!

Came up with a plan to find the one (or more) person that at least most people can agree on lynching.

The idea is this: if more than 5 people think a single person is scummy, and thus lynchable, these 5 are (1) not all wolves, they (2) all have their own reasons for thinking as such, and (3) if a scum member was bussing or covering, then they just doomed their own teammate.

Okay, #3 is maybe closer to hopeful thinking and might be what they want. But #1 and #2 is true. And if #2 is true, then that person, by general consensus, is the most scummy.

I'm going to vote that person, because that person is the person that the town, in general (with #1 and #2 in mind) agree on.

On page (p) 41, I asked everyone for at least 3 of their top wtl. This is the outcome:

Besie - p41 - Shad, Hallia, Turin, Darthe

Sili - p41- Seph, Shad, Kivam

Lenlo - p41 - NO - p42 Seph, Celeste

Celeste - p41 - Turin, Sili

Zander - p42 - Thane, Shad, Kivam, Darthe

Hallia - p44 - Besie, Kivam, Thane, Celeste

Shad - p45 - Hallia, Kivam

Seph - p45,46 - Dice, Hallia, Sili, Kivam, Celeste , Nyn, Turin, Darthe

Dice - p46,47 - Seph, Nyn

Nyn - p48 - Celeste, Darthe, Turin

Turin - p50 - ????, Thane (voted)

Thane - ????

Darthe - ????

Kivam - ????

Eldrick - ????

When each person is then sorted according to how many people is wtl him/her, the list is as follows:

(5) Kivam dead townie

(4) Turin I know I'm town

(4) Celeste: unknown

(4)Darthe: unknown

(3) Shad claimed mason

(3) Hallia dead townie

(3) Seph: unknown

(2) Sili: unknown

(2) Nyn/Z2.0: unknown

(2) Thane claimed mason

(1) Besie: unknown

So, [v]Kivam [/v]

Something that looks odd to me is that with the same number of votes at 4 and 3 the people I have as town (myself and shad) were listed at the top and the people I find as suspects (Celeste, Darthe {New} Seph) were listed under. there may be some innocent reason for this but it looks sketchy to me.

found some other funny things in the search but that will wait for the morning. I actually searched on mobile.

Are you saying Besie looks sketchy cause she tabulated everyone's WTL.....cause unless youre claiming her math is wrong, this is awful.

I am NOT saying that her math is wrong. I am saying that she framed the results in a manner to cast more doubt on townies than on people that I have found suspect during the course of the game. Kiv was town. I know I;m town (I understand this is my PoV and you may not be able to see that for whatever reason). Celeste has been a question mark to me. Darthe has been a bit weird but I am sort of waiting to see what happens by end of day. I am saying that the people I think are townies are getting put nearer the top of the list to make it look like they are worse than the ones below. It is a psychological thing IMO. Start at tht top of the list and work your way down. The pattern repeats going down the list as Shad (claimed mason) and Hallia (dead townie) are both above Seph.

(5) Kivam dead townie

(4) Turin I know I'm town

(4) Celeste: unknown

(4)Darthe: unknown

(3) Shad claimed mason

(3) Hallia dead townie

(3) Seph: unknown

(2) Sili: unknown

(2) Nyn/Z2.0: unknown

(2) Thane claimed mason

(1) Besie: unknown

also think turin is saying her math is swrong and that's why and yeah that much is sketchy lol.

See above.

This is awful.

Besie didnt choose the order this was the averages of EVERYONE;'s WTL.

Youre reaching here badly.

Likely vote on you coming after I catch up.

[Advanced]Lost mafia - Game over - Sili, SK wins!

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