[Basic]: Friends Mafia

[Taborline]

After ISOing Tab, Sooh, and Shad, I'm leaning towards a Tab/Shad team. I'll try to get Eldrick done before I have to leave in an hour. He has a lot of posts....

 

 

Why would two scum clear one another the whole game, especially in a game so small? I had one post of slight doubt about Shad, I think, but for the rest of the time I've had him green. He's been good on me, but a lot of his view of me due, I think, to the fact that he's had the most experience with me here. At least, he was a relatively new player when I was, and has seen me be town and has seen how I flail about silently when I'm scum. 

 

If you all lynch me today, you're going to be lynching another town player and town is going to lose. I am sorry I am not one of the stronger or more vocal players, but I am trying to be here and to figure this out. We've all been having a difficult time wrapping our heads around this game, even the more experienced people, and mafia are playing a very good game.

[Eldrick4221]

Updates after Lily ISO analysis:

WTL from highest to lowest by thier own gameplay, and their respective possible link chances.

Tab - Haven't sorted yet

Lily - Lily/Shad unlikely. Lily/Tab possible. Lily/Sooh unsure

Sooh - Sooh/Tab unlikely. Haven't sorted yet

Shad - Shad/Tab likely. Shad/Lily possible. Shad/Sooh unlikely

 

Shad/Lily possible. Lily/Shad unlikely.

Leans towards unlikely this is the team.

[Eldrick4221]

 

 

Lily about Shad

Shares excitement with Shad that the get to play together.

--Null

After Shad and I discuss why I said what I did, Lily asks how his headache is now.

-Null

When Shad asks why she voted me, Lily replies that there was a post that swayed her.

--Null

Lily quotes a post of Shad's from early in the game (where he explains how he likes Turin's early game, think's Thane's reaction is null, and says I already feel fishy), commenting on liking the amount of detail, and calling it a towny post.

--fair point. could be said about townie or teammate, though

When Shad explains his issues with my calling out his potential headache and sooh's not unvoting, Lily responds with saying that it doesn't change the fact that asking for clarification is a null tell 

--True, but not what was being discussed.

Lily's reads:

2. Shad – post #58 feels town

(Post she quoted earlier)

EoD reads list in case she got lynched:

2. Shad – post #58 feels town. Overall, his posts are prodding and poking at people. Asks lots of questions. Good townie feel. 

--More reason to have town read on him.

Read on Shad as "most townie of everyone"

Lily wavers on her strong town read on Shad because he 

didn't respond to me.

Lily points out that if scum had split on D1 trains, Shad would have to be scum, if Hally's claim was true (which it was)

Shad responds to my post, part of it saying that I'm not accepting his thinking my AtE as neccessarily town. Lily agrees that scum have them too. (This isn't what I meant. Shad twisted it and Lily agreed with the twist, which in its own right is true)

Understands Shad's POV. Doesn't agree with everything, but has Shad as reading very town.

Lily has a natural progression on her read of Shad. That's hard to do when you know they are scum IMO. Lily/Shad unlikely.

 

Lily about Tab

Tab asks Lily if she's WTV me, why isn't she? Lily responds with the reasons: Every vote is a big deal, it's why she asked about the DL - and - I can't always be scum. She's giving me the benefit of the doubt until she can't anymore.

Lily's reads:

8. Taborline – null. Not much content yet

(Fair point. Acceptable read.) 

Updated reads list. Reads on us 4 didn't change at all.

Replies to Tab asking what about Thane makes him town to her that she'd have to ISO and check.

Wants to know why Tab isn't voting this close the the DL.

8. Taborline – Going off Zander’s opinion of her meta. Town lean

--Read based entirely on someone else's view

Lily leaning Sooh/Tab, but just instinct.

Lily's only interaction with Tab was responding to Tab's question about her vote on me. She never tried to figure Tab out, and her read on Tab is based on someone else's meta. (I pointed out that her read changed on Tab, but it didn't make it into my notes. This point dependant on her response to why her read changed.). Lily/Tab possible

 

Lily about Sooh

Lily's reads:

3. Sooh – liking her posts so far. She seems to be thinking and honestly scum hunting

(Hasn't interacted with Sooh yet. This is just a read from observation. Null in terms of teammate equity)

Updated reads list. Reads on us 4 didn't change at all.

EoD reads list in case she got lynched:

3. Sooh – liking her posts so far. She seems to be thinking and honestly scum hunting

--Read hasn't changed

Lily points out that Sooh's read on Turin when she voted Tab sounded like it could be protecting Turin.

Lily leaning Sooh/Tab, but just instinct.

 

Read on Sooh seems to change solely on Sooh voting Tab over Turin (who was town). Lily/Sooh unsure

 

@LilyCan you explain why you went from Sooh being town to Sooh/Tab team?

 

Because I'm looking at everything. Nobody is safe from the Lily scrutiny today. LOL Mostly because I had decided that you and Shad were town. I'm now leaning a Tab/Shad team, though. Assuming I survive my ISO on you, I'll look at Tab with a Tab/Shad slant and see what that looks like. I have less than an hour today to play, so it will likely be in the morning. 

 

Sorry bout my huge ISO lol. You should do tab first.

[Eldrick4221]

 

After ISOing Tab, Sooh, and Shad, I'm leaning towards a Tab/Shad team. I'll try to get Eldrick done before I have to leave in an hour. He has a lot of posts....

 

 

Why would two scum clear one another the whole game, especially in a game so small? I had one post of slight doubt about Shad, I think, but for the rest of the time I've had him green. He's been good on me, but a lot of his view of me due, I think, to the fact that he's had the most experience with me here. At least, he was a relatively new player when I was, and has seen me be town and has seen how I flail about silently when I'm scum. 

 

If you all lynch me today, you're going to be lynching another town player and town is going to lose. I am sorry I am not one of the stronger or more vocal players, but I am trying to be here and to figure this out. We've all been having a difficult time wrapping our heads around this game, even the more experienced people, and mafia are playing a very good game.

 

 

The problem isn't that he cleared you. It's why. He never tried to figure you out. He just put you as town and left you alone.

 

about to do your ISO and see what's going on there. Not expecting much, though.

[Eldrick4221]

Oh. One more thing about Lily.

 

EoD reads list in case she got lynched:

2. Shad – post #58 feels town. Overall, his posts are prodding and poking at people. Asks lots of questions. Good townie feel. 

--More reason to have town read on him.

3. Sooh – liking her posts so far. She seems to be thinking and honestly scum hunting

--Read hasn't changed

6. Eldrick – His meltdown felt like frustrated townie to me. Town

--Read hasn't changed

8. Taborline – Going off Zander’s opinion of her meta. Town lean

--Read based entirely on someone else's view

 

In order from town to scum:

 

Shad

Sooh

Zander

Eldrick

Tab

Turin

Thane

Hallia

If she had flipped scum, her teammate would have been townread by her. Food for thought.

 

[LilyElizabeth]

 

 

 

Lily about Shad

Shares excitement with Shad that the get to play together.

--Null

After Shad and I discuss why I said what I did, Lily asks how his headache is now.

-Null

When Shad asks why she voted me, Lily replies that there was a post that swayed her.

--Null

Lily quotes a post of Shad's from early in the game (where he explains how he likes Turin's early game, think's Thane's reaction is null, and says I already feel fishy), commenting on liking the amount of detail, and calling it a towny post.

--fair point. could be said about townie or teammate, though

When Shad explains his issues with my calling out his potential headache and sooh's not unvoting, Lily responds with saying that it doesn't change the fact that asking for clarification is a null tell 

--True, but not what was being discussed.

Lily's reads:

2. Shad – post #58 feels town

(Post she quoted earlier)

EoD reads list in case she got lynched:

2. Shad – post #58 feels town. Overall, his posts are prodding and poking at people. Asks lots of questions. Good townie feel. 

--More reason to have town read on him.

Read on Shad as "most townie of everyone"

Lily wavers on her strong town read on Shad because he 

didn't respond to me.

Lily points out that if scum had split on D1 trains, Shad would have to be scum, if Hally's claim was true (which it was)

Shad responds to my post, part of it saying that I'm not accepting his thinking my AtE as neccessarily town. Lily agrees that scum have them too. (This isn't what I meant. Shad twisted it and Lily agreed with the twist, which in its own right is true)

Understands Shad's POV. Doesn't agree with everything, but has Shad as reading very town.

Lily has a natural progression on her read of Shad. That's hard to do when you know they are scum IMO. Lily/Shad unlikely.

 

Lily about Tab

Tab asks Lily if she's WTV me, why isn't she? Lily responds with the reasons: Every vote is a big deal, it's why she asked about the DL - and - I can't always be scum. She's giving me the benefit of the doubt until she can't anymore.

Lily's reads:

8. Taborline – null. Not much content yet

(Fair point. Acceptable read.) 

Updated reads list. Reads on us 4 didn't change at all.

Replies to Tab asking what about Thane makes him town to her that she'd have to ISO and check.

Wants to know why Tab isn't voting this close the the DL.

8. Taborline – Going off Zander’s opinion of her meta. Town lean

--Read based entirely on someone else's view

Lily leaning Sooh/Tab, but just instinct.

Lily's only interaction with Tab was responding to Tab's question about her vote on me. She never tried to figure Tab out, and her read on Tab is based on someone else's meta. (I pointed out that her read changed on Tab, but it didn't make it into my notes. This point dependant on her response to why her read changed.). Lily/Tab possible

 

Lily about Sooh

Lily's reads:

3. Sooh – liking her posts so far. She seems to be thinking and honestly scum hunting

(Hasn't interacted with Sooh yet. This is just a read from observation. Null in terms of teammate equity)

Updated reads list. Reads on us 4 didn't change at all.

EoD reads list in case she got lynched:

3. Sooh – liking her posts so far. She seems to be thinking and honestly scum hunting

--Read hasn't changed

Lily points out that Sooh's read on Turin when she voted Tab sounded like it could be protecting Turin.

Lily leaning Sooh/Tab, but just instinct.

 

Read on Sooh seems to change solely on Sooh voting Tab over Turin (who was town). Lily/Sooh unsure

 

@LilyCan you explain why you went from Sooh being town to Sooh/Tab team?

 

Because I'm looking at everything. Nobody is safe from the Lily scrutiny today. LOL Mostly because I had decided that you and Shad were town. I'm now leaning a Tab/Shad team, though. Assuming I survive my ISO on you, I'll look at Tab with a Tab/Shad slant and see what that looks like. I have less than an hour today to play, so it will likely be in the morning. 

 

Sorry bout my huge ISO lol. You should do tab first.

 

 

 

I'm 5 pages into yours, but I think I will.

[Eldrick4221]

@Tab How would you expect scum to treat each other in a game this size?

[LilyElizabeth]

 

 

Shad's performance from yesterday seems sound to me on an ISO this morning. You were spot on about Zander, you make good points about other people that I agree with (re: this post), and your vote was fine. I don't love the tunnelling after Eldrick today. I know you sowed the seeds of this yesterday, and I think I have seen you be uber-convinced before and go about it in the same way, but it doesn't give me a 100% town vibe. If Eld does end up flipping scum, I would still have my eye on you as a possible team mate for this kind of thing (in a conspiracy theory sort of world, as you know I'm fond of). More realistically, I think I could see Shad/Hallia, if Hally's lying about the claim.

 

I'm not convinced about Eld being scum yet, but a lot of this might be meta. The one time I played with you as scum before, you were all over the place in your voting patterns in a way that felt odd, like deliberate confusion. I am not feeling that from you in this game. Your votes so far have at least been things I agreed about and not things that made me wonder where the heck you were coming from. I don't feel bad about you hammering yesterday, as I would have as well, I was convinced Thane was scum (sorry, Thane!) I am also still rather on board with your AtE. 

 

I am not sure about Hally's claim. If she is scum, then it's taking a relatively big chance making that kind of claim so early without taking the time to suss whether or not it looks like there is a legit cop out there. However, the lack of counter claim does potentially look good for her. Given that it's such a small game, and basic, I wonder if there is a cop at all. If Hally is scum and false claiming, I think it looks good for Lily because as soon as Lily flipped anything but town, we'd have Hally too.

 

My strongest town read today is Sooh, followed by Turin.

 

 

I don't think he really is mafia, no. My scum leanings on him are, I think, purely based on paranoia - for instance, my gut says it might be him because he had a lot to do with my really looking Turin over again and eventually being willing to vote Turin, yet posts like this one: http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/96668-basic-friends-mafia/?view=findpost&p=3613185

 

Make a lot of game solving sense to me, so I am more inclined to say that he is probably town who is actively trying to solve this game and just got swayed into the same arguments that I did re: Thane and Turin. And I would rather vote someone based on something more concrete than a gut instinct at this point, we're running out of time.

 

Lily has been suspicious, but it's more probable she's town based on Hally's flip as cop. She could still be GF, but I'm so nervous to vote her out when Hally's peek could have been completely legit.

 

I admit I didn't like you riding on me for being "diplomatic" for so long - particularly as I was not diplomatic at all in my treating with Thane, and I think you've played with me enough to know that that's how I usually am.

 

I still feel good about Shad, possibly to my doom.

 

 

 

If they are teammates, she's done a better job of hiding it than he did. 

[LilyElizabeth]

@Thane Irt my fixation on sooh.

Day 1 there isn't a strong reason to read anyone. I found a weak one and pursued it, to either more fully cement my reasoning, or to find a reason to dismiss it. Sooh said it was something she normally does, but that wasn't enough for me. She could just be saying that to make me stop going after her. She mentioned the last 2 games I was in with her as reference. I checked them, and they didn't help her side.

 

I asked for other people to give me their outlook. Tab also came in and said it's something Sooh normally does. So for now I will drop it as not a reason to suspect her by itself. I still don't like that she did it, but will concede to it just being part of her playstyle.

 

Should Sooh or tab flip scum, I will reopen this.

 

Supports the Tab/Sooh team idea. 

[Taborline]

@Tab How would you expect scum to treat each other in a game this size?

 

 

Something less obvious (obvious as in holding one another's hand or violently distancing one another)

[Eldrick4221]

@Tab where did you get "Still feeling good about Shad"? During Day 2, you were deciding between him and me, and my case on Turin apparently convinced you to vote him. There's nowhere between then and here that your read changed on Shad, but now you suddenly are, and expect us to believe it's been that way.

[Eldrick4221]

 

@Tab How would you expect scum to treat each other in a game this size?

 

 

Something less obvious (obvious as in holding one another's hand or violently distancing one another)

 

Could you be more specific? What are you looking for in this game?

[Eldrick4221]

I'm done sifting through ISOs. I haven't seen anything to make me think Tab isn't scum, and she's by far the most likely one.

 

Time to see reactions to a vote. If I'm wrong, and scum jump on this, I'm sorry.

[v]Tab[/v]

[Eldrick4221]

This is where I got with my notes so far. I haven't sorted it yet, cuz my critical thinking is draining away and I had to stop reading the ISO.

 

 

Says Sooh is null for her joke vote.

Asks lily why she's not voting me.

Calls the back and worth between Sooh and me odd. points out that the not unvoting a joke vote is something Sooh normally does.

Responds to Sooh that she's pretty diplomatic D1.

Read list:

Shad - I am liking the way you're playing, being your usual probing self. You feel good.

Eldrick - I am inclined to be swayed by your appeal to emotions. I'd put you on the townier side of null now.

Sooh - true null, I need to ISO your posts still.

Lily - The Eld switch did ping me, but I need to ISO you to see if there's anything more

 

Asks Lily about her read on Thane.

Agrees with me that Lily/Thane team unlikely

After Lily's read cnahges on Thane, Tab sees the potential in Lily/Thane team.

Feels good about Sooh She is "logical and asking good and pointed questons"

Responds to me that she's caught up, and putting thoughts together about Shad and me.

 

Shad's performance from yesterday seems sound to me on an ISO this morning. You were spot on about Zander, you make good points about other people that I agree with (re: this post), and your vote was fine. I don't love the tunnelling after Eldrick today. I know you sowed the seeds of this yesterday, and I think I have seen you be uber-convinced before and go about it in the same way, but it doesn't give me a 100% town vibe. If Eld does end up flipping scum, I would still have my eye on you as a possible team mate for this kind of thing (in a conspiracy theory sort of world, as you know I'm fond of). More realistically, I think I could see Shad/Hallia, if Hally's lying about the claim.

If Tab is scum, is this her talking about a townie, or about a teammate? I don't know. I can see both.

Strongest town read is Sooh, followed by Turin

I point out that Hally being scum wouldn't fake view her top scum read (Lily), making scum team Hally/NotLily unlikely. Tab hadn't realized that.

--Scum!Tab would know that Hally was town, and possibly wouldn't think through the concept of her lying about the claim.

Shad points out the GF possibility. Tab says she forgot about that.

Takes Lily off the table for vote choices because of the read. Choosing between Shad and me.

 

 

[Eldrick4221]

I think GF is unlikely in a 9 player game. I don't see the team being Sooh/Tab. If Tab is scum, Shad is probably her teammate.

[Eldrick4221]

I'm done solving. If I'm right about Tab, and we don't lose today by scum hopping on the lynch with me, I'm voting shad tomorrow.

[Shad_]

[V]Tab[/v]

[Sooh]

Vote: Taborline

[Shad_]

Has to be Tab

[Taborline]

Sorry to see you've gone this way, and sorry I didn't play better town. Game over, I guess.

[Taborline]

Shad/Sooh, good job! It just took the one to suspect me as well.

[Taborline]

At least I had Sooh down in the end. Shad, you played very well.

[Taborline]

[Songstress]

Official Vote count:

 

Taborline (3): Eldrick, Shad, Sooh

 

Not voting: Lily, Tab

 

Please stand by for official flip (I'm at work for another 3-ish hours)... sorry.

[Eldrick4221]

Blah. That was the most work I've ever put into a game.