[BASIC/STANDARD] Warcraft: War of the Ancients Mafia - GAME OVER, MAFIA WINS

[Kaylee]

*snipped*

 

I think that Pralaya's tone theory vs. Shad's POV of Zander not making Cass the committed lynch push do not inherently make either Pralaya or Shad wolves. @Kaylee

 

I believe that Pralaya is trying to say that because Zander spewed me town, his similar (yet different) approach to Cass makes her scummier, because the tone with which he went after Cass was significantly less harsh and argumentatory than his tone with which he went after me.

 

Both of these POVs are possibilities in my book, and if you read Pralaya as scum off of this, I think it is a weak case to make.

Actually missed this before, sorry.

 

It's not why I read him scum. He was already at the bottom of my POE and nothing he's said had me thinking he's town. It didn't help. Maybe it's the wording he used in the quote you had in here, but I didn't like it. Hold on, let me grab that quote so I can explain better.

[Kaylee]

The thing is I don't see the same tone against Cass as he had with wish. So, I don't know how Shad is trying to say that Zander's posts spew Cass as town.

It's not him making the opposite conclusion that I didn't like. It's the bold. He's saying he can't even see it. That's the wording part I was talking about. Esp since others, like myself, can see it. It's not a big thing just something that felt off.

[wish-tree]

 

The thing is I don't see the same tone against Cass as he had with wish. So, I don't know how Shad is trying to say that Zander's posts spew Cass as town.

It's not him making the opposite conclusion that I didn't like. It's the bold. He's saying he can't even see it. That's the wording part I was talking about. Esp since others, like myself, can see it. It's not a big thing just something that felt off.

 

Ohhh

 

I see.

 

I think I get it. Him not even seeing the possibility of Cass being town is off to you. 

 

That makes sense. 

[Kaylee]

Yes. I get he disagrees, but not seeing it as a possibility is what I don't get from him.

[wish-tree]

Yes. I get he disagrees, but not seeing it as a possibility is what I don't get from him.

 

Pralaya, can you explain why you don't see Cass being town as a possibility? (Or alternatively, if I'm interpreting you incorrectly, why you don't understand Shad's theory?)

 

Come out and play, Nolder, as well. How does Pralaya's towniness go up or down because of this? 

 

Lenlo, you can't just slack off after you've claimed. Help out by thinking things through and doing some hunting. 

 

Celeste, I need you to make an effort. A lot of people do not know how to read you, and it's not my responsibility to lock clear you. 

 

Placing my vote on Pralaya for now. I think Celeste's theory is interesting -- that Pralaya doesn't react very much to pressure votes. Let's play and find out, eh?

 

[v] Pralaya [/v]

[Songstress]

OFFICIAL VOTE COUNT:

Kaylee (1): Celeste
Celeste (1): Lenlo
Pral (3): Kaylee, Laine, Wish

Not voting (5): Shad, Pral, Nolder, Cass, Pizza

----------

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch
Day 2 deadline is Monday, January 11 @ 9 AM MST (11 AM EST)
http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20160111T09&p0=197&msg=End+of+Day+Two&font=cursive&csz=1

[Celeste]

Reading.

 

Where I'm at:

 

Popular opinion is- do not lynch- me, Pizza, Laine, Shad, Lenlo

 

Will start to answer about what I think about Celeste.

 

I actually haven't heard much from her on Skype in a few days. Unsure if it's work or other things keeping her.

 

Her lack of activity is null, but you're right, it isn't looking good for her atm. I'm not going to try to lock clear her for other people, and I will defend her, but if she doesn't step it up, it'll be hard for me to do so.

 

I can't just keep tone/meta reading her if she doesn't put in the actual work. Even I may doubt. (That's when you know you should put in more work, Lassie.)

Work, sister time, and my recently connected PS3...

[wish-tree]

 

Reading.

 

Where I'm at:

 

Popular opinion is- do not lynch- me, Pizza, Laine, Shad, Lenlo

 

Will start to answer about what I think about Celeste.

 

I actually haven't heard much from her on Skype in a few days. Unsure if it's work or other things keeping her.

 

Her lack of activity is null, but you're right, it isn't looking good for her atm. I'm not going to try to lock clear her for other people, and I will defend her, but if she doesn't step it up, it'll be hard for me to do so.

 

I can't just keep tone/meta reading her if she doesn't put in the actual work. Even I may doubt. (That's when you know you should put in more work, Lassie.)

Work, sister time, and my recently connected PS3...

 

Okay. Thanks for showing up!

[Celeste]

I will get to the responses soon though

[Celeste]

Things I forget to tell Cass with the link. I just replaced in during the night.

[Lenlo]

Alright, whatever it was that was holdin me back, its gone. Im feelin better today. I have a game night to run in abit, but once thats done I promise you I will read and post and think until I die next night phase.

[alannalynn]

 

Pralaya- Pral almost purely here by POE. I read his ISO and I got nothing. I can see the pushes at Cass as the other wolf on the Csarmi wagon, I can see his thought processes. But then I see his WTL and I'm like wuuuuttttt? I mean, I know it's a lot of pages and a lot of stuff to get though, but I guess I don't really know what he's doing here right now. tl;dr, like his input but don't like his conclusions. Like, I can't fudging read him?

Aside from including you (and not including himself), his wtl is your wtl minus Nolder, no?

Cass, Celeste, Alanna, Kaylee. I kinda want to know how he's getting here, maybe it's because I haven't gotten to see the progression of his reads and that bothers me. I certainly agree that Cass could be mafia, but Celeste and Kaylee have been trending up for me and are not currently in my WTL.

 

Nolder, this has been a huge game--maybe higher content than WE even--and I can't realistically assume that only scum will fail to keep up, but things have slowed down a lot now and I need to see progression out of you.  If there is someone you're suspicious of, try to research them and improve your read.  At a stage where players are wrecking scum (Pizza), getting spewed pretty heavily town by scum (Cass), demonstrating way more motivation to solve than scum realistically probably would at this stage (Laine), claiming power roles (Lenlo), you will inevitably sink back into the POE if you don't step up a bit.

I like this a lottt from Shad. I really do need to see more from Nolder right now.

 

 

 

Did a bit of a Celeste ISO

 

This right here. Comes off frustrated villager. Especially looking at this being directed at Mafia!Zander, I do not see scum!Celeste saying this to scum!Zander. That doesn't happen. On the other hand, she could legit be frustrated as a teammate too but I don't see that here since Wish was the main target of Zander's. (see: Lenlo in Matrix)

 

This one again feels very villagery from frustration, especially point #2.

 

This shows a willingness to change her reads; she was voting Shad for iffy behavior at the start but unvotes due to changes in his behavior. I can also see from her ISO that she's asking questions and looking at other people, which is a good look for her as well.

 

Linking this one because it pulls in Pral too. So Celeste's reads list has Pral at the very bottom due to inactivity and Zander's response is

"Concerning Pral one post about catching up makes him your Top Scum read? Do you normally feel like low posters on inactivity is Scummy?  Like nobody else in all their posting makes you feel worse then him?"

Like yeah, I had just about the same thought, but coming from scum!Zander this is a -1 for Pral due to the defensiveness. Celeste still comes off okay in her response, though her reads list is ~meh.

 

LINK:

Celeste: "Look at my reads list, I don't really have strong scum reads. Let me ask you this then Do I look uniformed or informed in my posts? "

That last line really sticks out to me. Celeste seems rather lost d1 reads wise. I FEEL like she would be more informed and pushing as mafia but I'm not sure if it's something she could fake, too. @WISH, thoughts?

 

Hehe like this one

 

Feeling a townier lean on Celeste. Mostly feel like she didn't have a lot of time or good reads on d1. Mafia tends to have an easier time pushing people because they're informed and might hang on to reads a little longer. But I can see development in her reads and that's she trying to pay attention and that comes from a villager mindset for me. Also, those early reactions to Zander are screaming townie, imo. Probably not voting Celeste today, but I'd still like to see some work and progress from her.

 

 

@Lainey: She can fake being lost as Mafia. Look at TUS and Ragnorak. 

 

HOWEVER

The quote of hers that you pulled out, at least in my mind, in no world can come from a scum!Celeste. Especially "Let me ask you this. Do I look uninformed or informed in my posts?" As scum, she'd push the envelope about her gut feels, talking vaguely about something feeling off but not being sure entirely what, and would be less panicky and anxious when she was being voted. Scum Celeste does not panic. I've also never seen scum Celeste fake anger/panic (or if she has, I didn't notice it), so if that's what she's doing here, props, because the way she's posting is so indicative of her town meta.

 

The underlined part I would love to hear about from her, as well. Celeste is excellent at hunting wolves later on in the game. If she picks it up, I will be 100% solid on my read of her. 

Noted, thank you. I'll have to take a look at TUS and Ragnorak after work tonight as well. I think reading up on metas might help a little bit for me.

 

My signature is breaking

 

Can anyone else see my signature, or is just broken for me?

(has all sigs turned off lol)

[Cass]

 

 

/snip 

 

Basically

 

Celeste (gut says Town)

Kaylee (others I trust say Town)

Nolder (showing more effort, potentially Town)

Pral - Why would a wolf push such a flimsy case on me?

 

If there's deep wolf, I'm leaning Wish/Shad

 

 

 

Understand your reservations on Celeste, Kaylee, Nolder

 

Need to hear more about Pral's flimsy case on you.

 

Why would a wolf push such a flimsy case on me? Yet Zander did.

 

 

TBH, this is part of what has me wondering if you're deep wolf because it's possible that my gut is wrong and it was distancing WW.

 

Pral and I - Really no idea. I don't know how Scum Pral plays or how he'd be likely to try and push a mislynch at this point. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And this went silent during my brief return and leave. Anyways Lenlo if your cop why didn't you just investigate me? Instead of always voting me every chance you get.

This post bugs me. More now that I've reread it. It why even say this? We've discussed the GF angle already by this point. I get it's partly that he's been after her, but something about it just really bugs me. Maybe it's the "then I'd be clear" assumption to it added to the GF angle. Maybe it's the fact that earlier she said mechanics help her figure things out. If that's true then wouldn't your consider the possibility of a GF after the flips?

 

 

@Lenny-Wish - what do you make of this one?

 

Feels awkward/insecure but I'm not sure if I'm projecting/reading it right.

 

Town Penny has been direct and blunt and confident in tone to me, which way do you read it?

 

-snipped-

 

 

Tbh this is her awkwardest post. I can see how she'd make it as town, but still, it's a weird post. 

 

 

Blarg.

 

 

 

 

 

Gun to head I'm going to say Pral is town.

I wish there was more content to work with but sometimes gotta make tough call.

 

Ok who's next?

Shad how about you. Ok let's go.

 

 

Ok... Why? I want to know how you arrive at your reads more than who your reads actually are until they flip. Reasons are important to show your thought process prior to flip and help determine whether motive was scummy afterwards. I don't see why you leave them out as Town.

 

>>Agreed.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I viewed Zander last night, because EOD had me floating on him. Wanted to confirm that slot.

Lenlo, this does not look good for you, especially because Zander died.

 

Either you're Mafia or the actual cop. I don't think we've gotten anywhere on this. There is no reason for a VT to claim cop, imo.

If there is a Godfather present, then there is no reason for scum Lenlo to claim cop. Why? Because if Lenlo is the Godfather, obviously he wouldn't sacrifice himself. If Lenlo is not the Godfather, then what is the need to out the cop? The cop cannot find the Godfather anyway.

The optimal play from scum Lenlo would have been to claim the vig. He didn't. He is likely telling the truth.

Hi, Pralaya.

 

I apppreciate you popping in to defend Lenlo. What I would like to see is your own work as well.

 

 

Don't have a single non-game post so far.

 

(Except the above one :) )

lol

 

I think my main issue was how much you posted, not how much content you had.

 

Give me a reason to move you up. What is your WTL list today?

 

Likely because I skipped half the posts and skimmed the other half. Well, not exactly. I did try to read the first 50 pages in detail 

 

Cass, Celeste, Laine and Kaylee are the only ones I don't think are town. I have clear reasons to town clear the others. Cass would be my WTL

Why Laine and Kaylee?

Why Cass over the rest?

 

Has Celeste still not explained her whole rustlemania thing with regards to me?

Nope, don't think it was clear or explained. I would also like to hear more irt this.

 

So far vote for myself, for Leno (which I'm sure will now disappear), and for Celeste.

I know it's not me. Pral and Celeste are highest on my list.

I'll Pral

Taking Lenlo off my WTL. I disagree with his conclusion on Cass.

What do you think about Nolder's Pral conclusion?

 

 

 

Well first of all let's start at the beginning because if you don't have a good foundation the whole thing falls apart anyway.

This is all based on the assumption that Csarmi and Xander are wolves together.

I'm not necessarily opposed to that idea since I don't have Xander in my town pile yet and a couple people were saying he's off his town meta but I'd still like to see you make the case for Xander and Csarmi being connected before I take the rest of that too seriously. 

 

If I can't buy that Xander/Csarmi are w/w the rest of it doesn't matter you know?

Well, apparently the vig bought that Zander/csarmi are w/w. 

 

What's the rest?

 

Nolder, what do you read Kaylee as atm? What about Pizza? What about Cass? Lenlo? Pralaya?

1) There is no rest. I never bothered to go that far because it would have been a waste of my time if you couldn't convince me of Xander's connection to Csarmi in the first place. It was your job to prove the case not my job to prove you wrong.

 

2) Kaylee light green. Been that way most of the game. If there's a deep wolf I think she's my girl.

3) IDK I was very convinced he's scum but he's said and done some very unscummy things towards EOD1 and during N1. I want him to be scum but he probably isn't. I refuse to discount it yet but I'm not putting his head on the block.

4) Cass is in kind of a similar place except instead of seeming scummy and then doing townie things I feel like she just hasn't done enough to show her scumminess yet. Maybe I'm just wrong here idk.

5) 100% Town.

6) IDK need to ISO.

 

My goal today is not to catch scum.

My goal is to add more townies to my village and lynch from whoever's not in it.

 

Hmm. Who's in your village atm?

I honestly don't know why you viewed zander.I would have felt better about checking a more gray player and not one who was immediately on the line next day phase.

Meh. Is what it is.

Agreed.

 

Gun to head I'm going to say Pral is town.

I wish there was more content to work with but sometimes gotta make tough call.

 

Ok who's next?

Shad how about you. Ok let's go.

Is this after ISOing him?

I like these questions from Lenny.

Lenn, can you provide your opinions on the statements/subjects you're questioning pls

 

Yup. So I've highlighted the things in purple that I'm addressing.

 

 

 

1. Nolder reading Pralaya as town based off of low content. It's difficult to understand why Nolder is reading Pralaya as town.

2. I wanted to hear from Kaylee, who had the opposite POV about Pralaya, about Nolder's thoughts on Pralaya, because I didn't really like either Nolder or Kaylee's case on Pralaya. Neither case seems to be very fleshed out or substantial.

3. Nolder wanting to add town to his village and not catch scum, just lynch people not in his village -- that wording is weird to me. May not seem like a big deal, but as an English major, a lot of my reads are based off of writing/phrasing analysis. 

4.Celeste still needs to bring up the Rustlemania examples. I co-modded for that game, so I can corroborate her story if she is correct about Nolder.

5. I would lynch Kaylee before Cass. Cass has had a lot more content-rich posting, and seems to be actively trying to step up her game. I'm still giving Kaylee time, but I would like to see an increase in towning. Lainey I would not want to lynch at all, because Cass has more potential to be deep wolf in the way the scum team has been handling Lainey/Cass.

 

6. Zander attempts to pocket Lainey by doing the flirt-flirt-fluff thing that they usually do early game, but as someone else pointed out before, it didn't seem like Laine trusted him. As Celeste pointed out, Lainey was wary of him saying that they were mind-melding.

 

7. Cass, on the other hand, is called out for being paranoid within their first few interactions, and for acting 'not-town'. There's a fair amount of fluffing around, also mentioning Cory and things, but this kind of behavior, which seems like buddying, quickly drops away as Zander vaguely calls her out and then returns to reading Cass as town.

 

Added numbers for easy reference.

 

1. Agree

 

2. Agree with the bold and can understand the rational for your other questions there to Nolder. Can you give an ordered list of your reads and town core, please?

 

3. WRT Nolder saying:

My goal today is not to catch scum.

My goal is to add more townies to my village and lynch from whoever's not in it.

 

100% Yup on the English. I understand the theory that consolidating who you think is town makes it easier to find scum but I think that last sentence either indicates /was intended to indicate insecurity in his scum reads. Not sure yet whether that comes from genuine lost Town, or Scum-finding-it-hard-to-push-mislynch. I have some reservation that if scum (and especially if there's more than one left), the first sentence may have been set as a deliberate excuse.

 

4. I have no idea what any of this is about.

 

5. The bold here comes down to WIFOM on the scum team's part. Case me on my own work and how I treated scum/people I consider scum, not how they treated me. My gut reads on Csarmi and Zander were precisely that (and they were good, gosh darnit!). 

 

6. Agree that's how it looks. I find the wording WRT Laine in 5. disturbing though. Similar to the above, your lack of WTL Laine should have everything to do with her own work this game, and nothing to do with me or how either of us has been treated by scum.

 

7. IMO the 'buddying' vibe didn't ever completely drop. Part of it included Zander putting me in Town despite his persistent 'doubt/suspicion' (which he highlighted every time). 

 

 

 

 

 

The thing is I don't see the same tone against Cass as he had with wish. So, I don't know how Shad is trying to say that Zander's posts spew Cass as town.

 

I agree with your comment on Wish, and while we all know Zander likes to bus, he does it with the goal of winning games, and he has the experience to know what that means.  Consider:

 

Zander's first bus game, relied exclusively on gut, provided no case, managed to get his partner lynched when she was town telling like crazy and had a lot of us pocketed.  It bought him a pass for a while.  Towns kept dying.  Wait a second, how did Zander really know Talya was scum when all of Shad/Verbal/AJ/BFG were oblivious to it at the time?  TMI, gets lynched, town wins.

 

Zander's second bus game, relies entirely on a case because 'gut' was TMI last time, crafts a really solid one because it's a lot easier to point out scummy things when you know someone is scum lolololol.  Holds off the actual lynch for two days by playing up the tunnel vision, because tunnel vision can make towns fail to take notice of the actual quality of the case.  Lenlo finally gets lynched, people review Zander's case and realize it was spot on all along, lock him in as town, scum wins.

 

Diablo: Zander cases a town.  Has a few good reasons and some pretty bad ones.  The push backfires (and he gets peeked), gets lynched instead of his target.

 

This game: Zander cases someone.  Has a few good reasons a lot of pretty bad ones.  The push backfires (and he gets peeked,) gets lynched instead of his target.

 

Yeah, Wish probably town.  Would be a pretty clever and yet stupidly high-risk self-sacrifice otherwise, as either 1) town follows his lead and lynches her, then lynches him after she flips scum anyway because it was super TMI and Zander has a history, or 2) he gets outed for the case D2 or D3, still can't ensure Wish doesn't get vigged by someone who believes him beforehand, still can't ensure she isn't lynched at 3-player lylo because town is telling too hard or has confirmed PRs still living.

 

 

 

But Pral, couldn't the difference in tone be a simple consequence of Zander not (in what, the first 20 pages?) making Cass his committed lynch push?  I can understand if you don't agree with my theory that Zander spewed Cass town, but what does his case on Wish have to do with it?

 

I think that Pralaya's tone theory vs. Shad's POV of Zander not making Cass the committed lynch push do not inherently make either Pralaya or Shad wolves. @Kaylee

 

I believe that Pralaya is trying to say that because Zander spewed me town, his similar (yet different) approach to Cass makes her scummier, because the tone with which he went after Cass was significantly less harsh and argumentatory than his tone with which he went after me.

 

Both of these POVs are possibilities in my book, and if you read Pralaya as scum off of this, I think it is a weak case to make.

 

 

Shad's last line here is fantastic and Lenny looks good for considering both sides. Interested to see what comes from Pral and Shad from here.

 

@ Lenny, I disagree with Pral's logic, and I'm concerned that you so easily agree, but I also interpreted his stance this way, and it's part of what's making me hesitate on my PoE. Being wrong on me definitely doesn't make him scummy. The fact he pushed doubt towards me early in his game, and is now sticking stubbornly to wonky logic may.

 

@ Pral - What makes you so certain Wish is town?

[wish-tree]

Alright, whatever it was that was holdin me back, its gone. Im feelin better today. I have a game night to run in abit, but once thats done I promise you I will read and post and think until I die next night phase.

okok

[Cass]

Yes. I get he disagrees, but not seeing it as a possibility is what I don't get from him.

Points here for Kaylee on this progression.

 

 

Yes. I get he disagrees, but not seeing it as a possibility is what I don't get from him.

 

Pralaya, can you explain why you don't see Cass being town as a possibility? (Or alternatively, if I'm interpreting you incorrectly, why you don't understand Shad's theory?)

 

Come out and play, Nolder, as well. How does Pralaya's towniness go up or down because of this? 

 

Lenlo, you can't just slack off after you've claimed. Help out by thinking things through and doing some hunting. 

 

Celeste, I need you to make an effort. A lot of people do not know how to read you, and it's not my responsibility to lock clear you. 

 

Placing my vote on Pralaya for now. I think Celeste's theory is interesting -- that Pralaya doesn't react very much to pressure votes. Let's play and find out, eh?

 

[v] Pralaya [/v]

 

 

Good post from Wish IMO, though I'm not a fan of the stated reasoning for the vote.

[wish-tree]

-snip-

 

 

 

Did a bit of a Celeste ISO

 

This right here. Comes off frustrated villager. Especially looking at this being directed at Mafia!Zander, I do not see scum!Celeste saying this to scum!Zander. That doesn't happen. On the other hand, she could legit be frustrated as a teammate too but I don't see that here since Wish was the main target of Zander's. (see: Lenlo in Matrix)

 

This one again feels very villagery from frustration, especially point #2.

 

This shows a willingness to change her reads; she was voting Shad for iffy behavior at the start but unvotes due to changes in his behavior. I can also see from her ISO that she's asking questions and looking at other people, which is a good look for her as well.

 

Linking this one because it pulls in Pral too. So Celeste's reads list has Pral at the very bottom due to inactivity and Zander's response is

"Concerning Pral one post about catching up makes him your Top Scum read? Do you normally feel like low posters on inactivity is Scummy?  Like nobody else in all their posting makes you feel worse then him?"

Like yeah, I had just about the same thought, but coming from scum!Zander this is a -1 for Pral due to the defensiveness. Celeste still comes off okay in her response, though her reads list is ~meh.

 

LINK:

Celeste: "Look at my reads list, I don't really have strong scum reads. Let me ask you this then Do I look uniformed or informed in my posts? "

That last line really sticks out to me. Celeste seems rather lost d1 reads wise. I FEEL like she would be more informed and pushing as mafia but I'm not sure if it's something she could fake, too. @WISH, thoughts?

 

Hehe like this one

 

Feeling a townier lean on Celeste. Mostly feel like she didn't have a lot of time or good reads on d1. Mafia tends to have an easier time pushing people because they're informed and might hang on to reads a little longer. But I can see development in her reads and that's she trying to pay attention and that comes from a villager mindset for me. Also, those early reactions to Zander are screaming townie, imo. Probably not voting Celeste today, but I'd still like to see some work and progress from her.

 

 

@Lainey: She can fake being lost as Mafia. Look at TUS and Ragnorak. 

 

HOWEVER

The quote of hers that you pulled out, at least in my mind, in no world can come from a scum!Celeste. Especially "Let me ask you this. Do I look uninformed or informed in my posts?" As scum, she'd push the envelope about her gut feels, talking vaguely about something feeling off but not being sure entirely what, and would be less panicky and anxious when she was being voted. Scum Celeste does not panic. I've also never seen scum Celeste fake anger/panic (or if she has, I didn't notice it), so if that's what she's doing here, props, because the way she's posting is so indicative of her town meta.

 

The underlined part I would love to hear about from her, as well. Celeste is excellent at hunting wolves later on in the game. If she picks it up, I will be 100% solid on my read of her. 

Noted, thank you. I'll have to take a look at TUS and Ragnorak after work tonight as well. I think reading up on metas might help a little bit for me.

 

Alrighty! I'll also link you to some of her most excellent wolf games, if you'd like. :D

 

Here's my own first wolf game:  http://personalitycafe.com/mafia/547146-mafia-newbie-xxxiii-castle-mafia-win.html

(my other ones are pretty bad, but I can link you if you want.)

 

My signature is breaking

 

Can anyone else see my signature, or is just broken for me?

(has all sigs turned off lol)

 

lol, okay

[Kaylee]

Alright, whatever it was that was holdin me back, its gone. Im feelin better today. I have a game night to run in abit, but once thats done I promise you I will read and post and think until I die next night phase.

Look forward to it.

[wish-tree]

 

Yes. I get he disagrees, but not seeing it as a possibility is what I don't get from him.

Points here for Kaylee on this progression.

 

 

Yes. I get he disagrees, but not seeing it as a possibility is what I don't get from him.

 

Pralaya, can you explain why you don't see Cass being town as a possibility? (Or alternatively, if I'm interpreting you incorrectly, why you don't understand Shad's theory?)

 

Come out and play, Nolder, as well. How does Pralaya's towniness go up or down because of this? 

 

Lenlo, you can't just slack off after you've claimed. Help out by thinking things through and doing some hunting. 

 

Celeste, I need you to make an effort. A lot of people do not know how to read you, and it's not my responsibility to lock clear you. 

 

Placing my vote on Pralaya for now. I think Celeste's theory is interesting -- that Pralaya doesn't react very much to pressure votes. Let's play and find out, eh?

 

[v] Pralaya [/v]

 

 

Good post from Wish IMO, though I'm not a fan of the stated reasoning for the vote.

 

we'll see where the vote goes. 

[Lenlo]

 

Alright, whatever it was that was holdin me back, its gone. Im feelin better today. I have a game night to run in abit, but once thats done I promise you I will read and post and think until I die next night phase.

Look forward to it.

 

Have some time before people get here, so ill try and do some. I have AGDQ going in the background, so its gonna be fun.

[wish-tree]

 

 

 

/snip 

 

Basically

 

Celeste (gut says Town)

Kaylee (others I trust say Town)

Nolder (showing more effort, potentially Town)

Pral - Why would a wolf push such a flimsy case on me?

 

If there's deep wolf, I'm leaning Wish/Shad

 

 

 

Understand your reservations on Celeste, Kaylee, Nolder

 

Need to hear more about Pral's flimsy case on you.

 

Why would a wolf push such a flimsy case on me? Yet Zander did.

 

 

TBH, this is part of what has me wondering if you're deep wolf because it's possible that my gut is wrong and it was distancing WW.

 

Pral and I - Really no idea. I don't know how Scum Pral plays or how he'd be likely to try and push a mislynch at this point. 

 

XD I'm glad you think so highly of me.

 

Irt the scum!Pralaya part, I want to hear what Penny thinks, because she says she thinks he's acting according to his scum meta.

 

 

 

 

 

 

And this went silent during my brief return and leave. Anyways Lenlo if your cop why didn't you just investigate me? Instead of always voting me every chance you get.

This post bugs me. More now that I've reread it. It why even say this? We've discussed the GF angle already by this point. I get it's partly that he's been after her, but something about it just really bugs me. Maybe it's the "then I'd be clear" assumption to it added to the GF angle. Maybe it's the fact that earlier she said mechanics help her figure things out. If that's true then wouldn't your consider the possibility of a GF after the flips?

 

 

@Lenny-Wish - what do you make of this one?

 

Feels awkward/insecure but I'm not sure if I'm projecting/reading it right.

 

Town Penny has been direct and blunt and confident in tone to me, which way do you read it?

 

-snipped-

 

 

Tbh this is her awkwardest post. I can see how she'd make it as town, but still, it's a weird post. 

 

 

Blarg.

 

? It's her awkwardest post. I explained how it could come from a towny perspective somewhere on page 161 or 162.

 

-snip-

 

1. Nolder reading Pralaya as town based off of low content. It's difficult to understand why Nolder is reading Pralaya as town.

2. I wanted to hear from Kaylee, who had the opposite POV about Pralaya, about Nolder's thoughts on Pralaya, because I didn't really like either Nolder or Kaylee's case on Pralaya. Neither case seems to be very fleshed out or substantial.

3. Nolder wanting to add town to his village and not catch scum, just lynch people not in his village -- that wording is weird to me. May not seem like a big deal, but as an English major, a lot of my reads are based off of writing/phrasing analysis. 

4.Celeste still needs to bring up the Rustlemania examples. I co-modded for that game, so I can corroborate her story if she is correct about Nolder.

5. I would lynch Kaylee before Cass. Cass has had a lot more content-rich posting, and seems to be actively trying to step up her game. I'm still giving Kaylee time, but I would like to see an increase in towning. Lainey I would not want to lynch at all, because Cass has more potential to be deep wolf in the way the scum team has been handling Lainey/Cass.

 

6. Zander attempts to pocket Lainey by doing the flirt-flirt-fluff thing that they usually do early game, but as someone else pointed out before, it didn't seem like Laine trusted him. As Celeste pointed out, Lainey was wary of him saying that they were mind-melding.

 

7. Cass, on the other hand, is called out for being paranoid within their first few interactions, and for acting 'not-town'. There's a fair amount of fluffing around, also mentioning Cory and things, but this kind of behavior, which seems like buddying, quickly drops away as Zander vaguely calls her out and then returns to reading Cass as town.

 

Added numbers for easy reference.

 

1. Agree

 

2. Agree with the bold and can understand the rational for your other questions there to Nolder. Can you give an ordered list of your reads and town core, please?

 

Lenlo* -> bah.

Celeste

Pizza

Laine

Shad

 

Cass

Kaylee

 

Nolder

Pralaya

 

(will do a color-coded version as a separate post for ease of viewing)

 

3. WRT Nolder saying:

My goal today is not to catch scum.

My goal is to add more townies to my village and lynch from whoever's not in it.

 

100% Yup on the English. I understand the theory that consolidating who you think is town makes it easier to find scum but I think that last sentence either indicates /was intended to indicate insecurity in his scum reads. Not sure yet whether that comes from genuine lost Town, or Scum-finding-it-hard-to-push-mislynch. I have some reservation that if scum (and especially if there's more than one left), the first sentence may have been set as a deliberate excuse.

 

Agreed with the underlined part.

 

4. I have no idea what any of this is about.

 

Celeste mentions that there's a game (Rustlemania) that Cory and I ran on Vendetta Strada in which Nolder's scum play is similar to his play here. Would like to see how this pans out, because in Rustlemania, town!Celeste called Nolder out and hit him with a chair, stealing his vote. 

 

5. The bold here comes down to WIFOM on the scum team's part. Case me on my own work and how I treated scum/people I consider scum, not how they treated me. My gut reads on Csarmi and Zander were precisely that (and they were good, gosh darnit!). 

 

Alright, okay. I think that's a fair point. 

 

6. Agree that's how it looks. I find the wording WRT Laine in 5. disturbing though. Similar to the above, your lack of WTL Laine should have everything to do with her own work this game, and nothing to do with me or how either of us has been treated by scum.

 

Why is it disturbing? I've credited Laine for her work done in other posts. I was entertaining Shad/Pralaya's Zander/possible scum buddy theory. 

 

7. IMO the 'buddying' vibe didn't ever completely drop. Part of it included Zander putting me in Town despite his persistent 'doubt/suspicion' (which he highlighted every time). 

 

Hmm... why is that buddying?

 

 

 

 

The thing is I don't see the same tone against Cass as he had with wish. So, I don't know how Shad is trying to say that Zander's posts spew Cass as town.

 

I agree with your comment on Wish, and while we all know Zander likes to bus, he does it with the goal of winning games, and he has the experience to know what that means.  Consider:

 

Zander's first bus game, relied exclusively on gut, provided no case, managed to get his partner lynched when she was town telling like crazy and had a lot of us pocketed.  It bought him a pass for a while.  Towns kept dying.  Wait a second, how did Zander really know Talya was scum when all of Shad/Verbal/AJ/BFG were oblivious to it at the time?  TMI, gets lynched, town wins.

 

Zander's second bus game, relies entirely on a case because 'gut' was TMI last time, crafts a really solid one because it's a lot easier to point out scummy things when you know someone is scum lolololol.  Holds off the actual lynch for two days by playing up the tunnel vision, because tunnel vision can make towns fail to take notice of the actual quality of the case.  Lenlo finally gets lynched, people review Zander's case and realize it was spot on all along, lock him in as town, scum wins.

 

Diablo: Zander cases a town.  Has a few good reasons and some pretty bad ones.  The push backfires (and he gets peeked), gets lynched instead of his target.

 

This game: Zander cases someone.  Has a few good reasons a lot of pretty bad ones.  The push backfires (and he gets peeked,) gets lynched instead of his target.

 

Yeah, Wish probably town.  Would be a pretty clever and yet stupidly high-risk self-sacrifice otherwise, as either 1) town follows his lead and lynches her, then lynches him after she flips scum anyway because it was super TMI and Zander has a history, or 2) he gets outed for the case D2 or D3, still can't ensure Wish doesn't get vigged by someone who believes him beforehand, still can't ensure she isn't lynched at 3-player lylo because town is telling too hard or has confirmed PRs still living.

 

 

 

But Pral, couldn't the difference in tone be a simple consequence of Zander not (in what, the first 20 pages?) making Cass his committed lynch push?  I can understand if you don't agree with my theory that Zander spewed Cass town, but what does his case on Wish have to do with it?

 

I think that Pralaya's tone theory vs. Shad's POV of Zander not making Cass the committed lynch push do not inherently make either Pralaya or Shad wolves. @Kaylee

 

I believe that Pralaya is trying to say that because Zander spewed me town, his similar (yet different) approach to Cass makes her scummier, because the tone with which he went after Cass was significantly less harsh and argumentatory than his tone with which he went after me.

 

Both of these POVs are possibilities in my book, and if you read Pralaya as scum off of this, I think it is a weak case to make.

 

 

Shad's last line here is fantastic and Lenny looks good for considering both sides. Interested to see what comes from Pral and Shad from here.

 

@ Lenny, I disagree with Pral's logic, and I'm concerned that you so easily agree, but I also interpreted his stance this way, and it's part of what's making me hesitate on my PoE. Being wrong on me definitely doesn't make him scummy. The fact he pushed doubt towards me early in his game, and is now sticking stubbornly to wonky logic may.

 

I'm not easily agreeing, I'm summarizing what he said. Again, I can see both sides, but it is possible that Zander does spew you wolf. I think that depends on Pral/you, though. Don't think you could be w/w together.

 

I saw the underlined portion. It's interesting that he's maintaining his scum read on you from the start of the game, when he scum-read you when you were so heavily town-read by the rest of the thread.

 

@ Pral - What makes you so certain Wish is town?

 

I'm curious too.

[Lenlo]

Caught up through Page 10. People are arriving so I gotta go. At this point I think Cass is town, but I also think she has ALOT of Deep Wolf equity. If theres a deep wolf, its her 9/10 in my head at this point. Shad, Nolder, Laine still looking town to me. Nothing from Pral yet.

 

Here goes. Assumptions going into this: Pizza is Town after his display with Csarmi/Zander wolf catches. Turin is town, cause flip. Zander and Csarmi are scum cause flip. Im town cause role. Everyone else I am trying to start from a blank slate on.

 

Theres alot about Cass in there, but she posted alot early on.

 

 

#16 Shad mentions some stuff about meta. I really dont think this means anything, but mentioning it incase I need it for future reference in this post.

 

#20 The 20 questions about meta with me and Shad begin.

#30 && 31 Still kinda wanna soulread Shad for that.

 

#43 && 44 Cass get srs fast. 

 

#50 Zander brings up the Cory Mentorship of Cass. Its kinda odd in retrospect of Zander being scum.

 

#70 - 77 Could be Zander trying to look normal for Laine. Based on feelings I have from the first read of the game, I think Laine is town, so I might have some bias on this front.

 

#79 Cass early on saying Zander makes her wary. Possible early distance from a teammate? Bundles Laine in there as well.

 

#82 Zander tells cass to ask Cory in their QT if what he and Alanna are doing is normal. Kinda odd, but I dont see any reason to mention it here if they were teammates.

 

#91 Cass probes Turin for some answers. Good questions imo, as I have never played with her before. Like shes trying to get a hold of me. Second part about Celeste is kinda funny though imo.

 

#97 Odd from Cass. Hints me and Shad planned our town lock comments, but then states its unlikely for W-W to do this. Then says something I said was scummy, but prefaces it saying "Unless they are good friends!". Its odd and sticks out to me.

 

#100 Cass asks why Shad is town to me at this point, as if that was a serious read. Really struggling between is Cass just a townie trying to figure things or a wolf trying to look that way. Theres alot of over analysing happening that I dont like.

 

#105 Cass finds Pizza post wolfy while also asking what kind of player he is. Has anyone seen a wolf Cass before? How different are her town/wolf games?

 

#109 So Cass is bothered by... something. Vagueness is not a towny trait imo.

 

#117 Cass interacts with alot of Zander posts. Calls things awkward yet says she doubts shes voting him today because she wants fun. Its weird. Follow up to #79, is this more distancing, so she can fall back on "I thought Zander felt weird early on.". I remember everyone finding her very towny in later on, so im starting to think Deep Wolf?

 

#122 Cass asks why Pizza didnt elaborate on his WTH comment. Seems kinda overreactive. Continues to over explain herself to Pizza about his note taking post.

 

#124 Pizza noticing some of the things I have with Cass, but he assumes she will be easier to read as she calms down. Important to remember game started 12 horus ago at this point.

 

#129 Pizza is giving advice to Cass about inconsistencies.

 

#130 big post from Cass. Shes digging deep into some soft comments from Laine. Things like "If you're town, why not explain that's what your thinking?" Feel off to me. What are you implying with this? "and I won't believe you're just a wolf because you say so :P" Weird comment. Wont believe your just a wolf? Corrects it later, but often small things like this can slip through when someone is apparently "manic".

 

Asks why Laine is so serious when Cass isnt gunning for her lynch, yet Cass is going crazy with posts and stuff. 

 

#135 Cass explains off her Wolf game by saying Pizza should go read another. I dont see the poinst to explaining the INFP crap. Pizza buddying?

 

#137 Good Pizza post. Unlike him though, I am fearing Deep Wolf with Cass.

 

#141 Wish says Celeste is town cause of town, just trust her. Sorry no trust. 

 

#144 Wish refuses to backup her town read of Celeste, meanwhile shifting to Pizza, Kaylee and Turin. Odd knowing Turin is town now.

 

#145 Odd from Wish imo.

 

#149 Long Pizza post. Sorry didnt read. Thats an entire page of content in one post and I wanna hit page 10 before I have to stop.

 

#152 Why cant you post like this normaly Pizza?

 

#156 && 158 Some Zander/Cass interaction. Worth a look at since Zander flipped scum.

 

#159 From Zander. "Our Scum game"? Asking if they had played together before. Could that be a slip?

 

#162 Shad enters the game.

 

#164 More Cass/Zander interaction.

 

#167 Nolder catchs up but posts no thoughts. From anyone else this would be scummy, but I kinda expected it from him at this point.

 

#170 Nolder asks his question. #173 Shad response, #179 Zander response, #195 Pizza Response, 

 

#179 Feel good about this from Nolder.

 

#180 Shad points out somethin id been thinking. Mind meld?

 

#181 more Cass/Zander interaction.

 

#185 && 186 Celeste posts. Disagrees with Wish on what she does as town, prompts Pizza to tell her why he would be willing to vote her at this time.

 

#187 Cass/Zander interaction

 

#188 Celeste unvotes for no reason?

 

#189 Celeste is townreading Celeste for her prompt to Pizza. Why?

[Shad_]

Cory knows my soul and he will be able to help clear things up for you!!!!

Here's another case of Zander trying to discredit Cass's push. Sucking up to her mentor? More town spew imo.

[Shad_]

Thought on Laine

 

Early in the game I expressed doubts about her. If Zander discredited them, means nothing, but if he suggested I might be on to something that's another clearing point for her. Z isn't going to encourage suspicion of scum mate Laine early when he has massive excuse by way of precedent to blow off my concerns. Something for me to check.

i like this question from Shad.  Cause i dont see how just based off of that alone, youd garner any information one way or the other.

Encouraging early suspicion of Laine right here. Ignoring or even shooting down my concern with Laine is zero risk for Zander if they're w/w because he routinely white knight's her as town.

[Shad_]

@Pral, initially you had Zander as one of your three top town reads. You later considered who might be scum on csarmi's wagon based on their progression into voting him, and you resolved on Cass. How did this study impact your read on Zander at the time?

[Kaylee]

@Pral, initially you had Zander as one of your three top town reads. You later considered who might be scum on csarmi's wagon based on their progression into voting him, and you resolved on Cass. How did this study impact your read on Zander at the time?

Interested in the answer to this as well.