[BASIC/STANDARD] Warcraft: War of the Ancients Mafia - GAME OVER, MAFIA WINS

[wish-tree]

 

 

#2774 Wish: Okay, Nolder next. What do you think about my thoughts about Lenny/Penny - csarmi mixup?

I think it's odd. Linking you to mafia, sure. But sometimes mafia do weird things. I think I remember in Star Wars (?) there was a discussion on Yates naming two of his teammates together  at the same time in the thread and treating them the same. And the argument was "he wouldn't do that, that's linking them together, there's no way the other is mafia" or something of the sort. (Pretty sure that's not exactly what went down, but whatever). Basically my point is that that doesn't prove anything. Same with Csarmi being nice to both Kaylee and Cass; I actually noticed that, that he treated them both similarly, but that doesn't really tell me much about their alignments unless I can go back and see that pattern of behavior as mafia!Csarmi in other games. At THAT point, I might take it as evidence.

For now I'm not really going to bother about Cass. I think that if we can't find mafia in Pral, Celeste, Lenlo we should take a look at her again definitely. But for now, those three are where I want the pressure.

 

I understand that you read Celeste well and that you _know_ she's town, but that doesn't translate to the rest of us, unfortunately, so she will be a lynch candidate today. Right now she needs to beat Pral and Lenlo to survive another day.

 

/SNIP/

 

#2818 Cass, your comment on my Wish-case where I said she didn't go after the opportunity to push Zander while Pizza was. This was under the assumption that she was mafia and Zander was town, obviously. Now that he's flipped mafia, I see you might want to tinfoil.

 

So, she didn't go after the Kaylee case, she actually did the work to verify/discredit it. This is a townie move, unless we have Csarmi, Zander, Wish, Kaylee. Which would be weird, because Csarmi was already covering that base and feeding lines to Pizza. And then, under this scenario, she didn't know who to go after when all her teammates were lynches. Which is highly impossible. Easiest answer is that Wish is still town and really was conflicted when the Kaylee case fell through, Csarmi was up and Pizza vs Zander happened. Wish still blue/green for me. That post of her still sells it. Her earlier swipes at Csarmi sound like legit townie frustration to me, as well.

 

@ALL, Note: is Zander more or less likely to confuse Wish-Lenny and Celeste-Penny as a teammate? He's known them since TUS, same as me (though I was on a team with them) and they got added to the chat around the same time. If Zander is on a scum team with either of them and trying to align Wish with Lenny and Celeste with Penny, does he actually get confused between them or does he fake it?

 

Left off at top of /144

 

I want to hear particularly from Wish and Celeste on the purple portions of this.

 

1. Yeah, fair enough. I just did not think it was likely for scum!Zander and scum!Csarmi to link me and Penny to them if one or both of us were wolves. I understand that it isn't clearing for Penny/me, especially Penny, because she's done far less work than me, and because Zander/csarmi focused on her less. 

 

It's up to her to prove herself. I might be able to vouch her town because she's always town in my eyes, but the rest of you do not have that experience with her.

 

 

2. I think that the majority of the thread has confused Penny/me. It could be possible that Zander did it on purpose to be confusing, which I think is more likely than him actually being confused if Penny and I were in the scum QT and he couldn't tell us apart, as he has known me and Penny for a really long time (since TUS). However, his confusion and other's confusion even outside of mafia about Penny/me is understandable as well, so this may be just angleshooting.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Well first of all let's start at the beginning because if you don't have a good foundation the whole thing falls apart anyway.

This is all based on the assumption that Csarmi and Xander are wolves together.

I'm not necessarily opposed to that idea since I don't have Xander in my town pile yet and a couple people were saying he's off his town meta but I'd still like to see you make the case for Xander and Csarmi being connected before I take the rest of that too seriously. 

 

If I can't buy that Xander/Csarmi are w/w the rest of it doesn't matter you know?

Well, apparently the vig bought that Zander/csarmi are w/w. 

 

What's the rest?

 

Nolder, what do you read Kaylee as atm? What about Pizza? What about Cass? Lenlo? Pralaya?

 

1) There is no rest. I never bothered to go that far because it would have been a waste of my time if you couldn't convince me of Xander's connection to Csarmi in the first place. It was your job to prove the case not my job to prove you wrong.

 

2) Kaylee light green. Been that way most of the game. If there's a deep wolf I think she's my girl.

3) IDK I was very convinced he's scum but he's said and done some very unscummy things towards EOD1 and during N1. I want him to be scum but he probably isn't. I refuse to discount it yet but I'm not putting his head on the block.

4) Cass is in kind of a similar place except instead of seeming scummy and then doing townie things I feel like she just hasn't done enough to show her scumminess yet. Maybe I'm just wrong here idk.

5) 100% Town.

6) IDK need to ISO.

 

My goal today is not to catch scum.

My goal is to add more townies to my village and lynch from whoever's not in it.

 

 

Hmm. Who's in your village atm?

 

Gun to head I'm going to say Pral is town.

I wish there was more content to work with but sometimes gotta make tough call.

 

Ok who's next?

Shad how about you. Ok let's go.

Is this after ISOing him?

 

Last question first, yes.

 

Right now I have: Alanna, Lenlo, and Pral.

 

Shad, yourself, and Kaylee are lurking around the outskirts but I need to finish my ISO's before I decide whether you can come in my village or if you belong in the forest.

 

Got it. I'm going to have to leave for today, have a Day Start to do and actions to process. Take your time.

[wish-tree]

Latch onto something Shad did like immediately at the start of game, never let it go, then follow a scumbag onto a very likely townie, and finally follow Nolder onto me.

 

Essentially just hang out all day and night and do no work, claim cop D2 with 1 vote on you, reason: Can't be bothered to argue anyone besides yourself is guilty.

 

Still don't understand what our town powers are doing this game.

 

What do vanilla townies do? Is it just up to them to solve the game? You didn't stop being a vanilla townie when you got a doctor or cop role. You're a vanilla townie with extra benefits, it's not supposed to handicap you into being passive.

 

Just don't understand this at all.

Understand the frustration, but that looks like the situation we're at now.

 

Good luck. Have to jet.

[Askthepizzaguy]

If Lenlo is the scum's Godfather, then there is every reason to claim cop to draw the counterclaim. The roleblocker or whatever else they have is probably gettable by scan. If you are the main suspect today for whatever reason, saying "Scan me, scan me" even as the Godfather doesn't help, because there's no doctor. Being confirmed innocent by the scan means the mafia have to murder you. When that doesn't happen and no godfather ever dies, you die. Worse, the cop being around to find the gettable scumbag means that could be your entire team instead of just you going down today/tonight. And, if you've already been POE'd, it's hard to argue to anyone to make yourself live and then get scanned, because we're assuming a godfather exists. Instead, drawing a cop counterclaim means the scumbag that can be found via scanned never gets scanned.

 

His claim buys him time. The cop may be the one role that the scums are worried about remaining. Claiming first also means that in the event of a counterclaim, it might be possible to lynch the real cop and then shoot one of the blue villagers tonight instead of having to wait 2 nights.

 

I dunno.

 

The interaction between him and Zander sits poorly with me.

 

I doubt I can lynch Lenlo today regardless. And with that claim, if he is guilty, he must have a partner or he just conceded outright.

 

So, the objective in my mind is to find the partner, and also keep in mind Lenlo's claim could be legit, as it often is.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Unvote

[alannalynn]

Did a bit of a Celeste ISO

This right here. Comes off frustrated villager. Especially looking at this being directed at Mafia!Zander, I do not see scum!Celeste saying this to scum!Zander. That doesn't happen. On the other hand, she could legit be frustrated as a teammate too but I don't see that here since Wish was the main target of Zander's. (see: Lenlo in Matrix)

This one again feels very villagery from frustration, especially point #2.

This shows a willingness to change her reads; she was voting Shad for iffy behavior at the start but unvotes due to changes in his behavior. I can also see from her ISO that she's asking questions and looking at other people, which is a good look for her as well.

Linking this one because it pulls in Pral too. So Celeste's reads list has Pral at the very bottom due to inactivity and Zander's response is

"Concerning Pral one post about catching up makes him your Top Scum read? Do you normally feel like low posters on inactivity is Scummy?  Like nobody else in all their posting makes you feel worse then him?"

Like yeah, I had just about the same thought, but coming from scum!Zander this is a -1 for Pral due to the defensiveness. Celeste still comes off okay in her response, though her reads list is ~meh.

LINK:

Celeste: "Look at my reads list, I don't really have strong scum reads. Let me ask you this then Do I look uniformed or informed in my posts? "

That last line really sticks out to me. Celeste seems rather lost d1 reads wise. I FEEL like she would be more informed and pushing as mafia but I'm not sure if it's something she could fake, too. @WISH, thoughts?

Hehe like this one

 

Feeling a townier lean on Celeste. Mostly feel like she didn't have a lot of time or good reads on d1. Mafia tends to have an easier time pushing people because they're informed and might hang on to reads a little longer. But I can see development in her reads and that's she trying to pay attention and that comes from a villager mindset for me. Also, those early reactions to Zander are screaming townie, imo. Probably not voting Celeste today, but I'd still like to see some work and progress from her.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Can't work on this game any more tonight- frustrated.

 

That's what I'm feeling internally, but, everyone else should keep their spirits up. In principle, we killed 2 scums D1 and have (possibly) outed their Godfather. Any real cop obviously does not scan Lenlo tonight, or myself, or Shad imo. If he is the real cop, it's possible he could have gotten found by a mafia role cop and shot very shortly anyway, and he totally wasted his scan by using it on Zander who had been a prime candidate yesterday for the vigilante. So how many scans would we have gotten?

 

With a Godfather, he could have wrongfully cleared someone, and that person could have survived for a long while. Essentially this just makes it all a vanilla game with 1-2 scums remaining, with a very good D1 to base our suspicions on. What have we really lost? The potential to find a gettable scumbag via scan. It may never have happened. Still, having 2 people scanned innocent means you have 1 person guaranteed to have been innocent among the two, and odds are good both are.

 

I still think looking at the Zander interactions which were only 1/3 complete is a good place to start. Don't have it in me to do it right now. But if someone wants to pick up from page 50 and move onward, be my guest.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I am just trying to talk myself out of feeling negatively.

 

But, it's true. The worst thing people can do right now is let it get you down. You find the scums. That's what we're here to do, not cry over imperfect decisions.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I am going to vote and try hard to lynch the next person who does not attempt to find scums today and isn't blue.

 

Period.

[alannalynn]

Cool story bro

 

I'm looking at Pral

 

Deep wolf Cass

 

Maybe some Nolder for funsies

 

For now I need to get ready for work, I'll be back and online 13 hours from now.

[Kaylee]

Laine: How are your feeling about Pral? If your feel better about Celeste and believe Leno that leaves myself, Pral and Nolder.

[Kaylee]

Ninja'd

[Kaylee]

If Pral turns or to be town then either Nol or Cass is deep wolf imo.

 

Not going to lynch Cass today as she's come out looking best of the questionables.

 

Celeste: thoughts on what's happened?

[Songstress]

OFFICIAL VOTE COUNT:

 

Kaylee (1): Celeste

Celeste (1): Lenlo

Pral (1): Kaylee

 

Not voting (7): Shad, Laine, Wish, Pral, Nolder, Cass, Pizza

 

----------

 

With 10 alive, it takes 6 to lynch

Day 2 deadline is Monday, January 11 @ 9 AM MST (11 AM EST)

http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20160111T09&p0=197&msg=End+of+Day+Two&font=cursive&csz=1

[Nolder]

Latch onto something Shad did like immediately at the start of game, never let it go, then follow a scumbag onto a very likely townie, and finally follow Nolder onto me.

 

Essentially just hang out all day and night and do no work, claim cop D2 with 1 vote on you, reason: Can't be bothered to argue anyone besides yourself is guilty.

 

Still don't understand what our town powers are doing this game.

 

What do vanilla townies do? Is it just up to them to solve the game? You didn't stop being a vanilla townie when you got a doctor or cop role. You're a vanilla townie with extra benefits, it's not supposed to handicap you into being passive.

 

Just don't understand this at all.

We don't need'em. 

[Nolder]

I don't know how I became the dish washer for the household.

I would literally rather do any other chore. 

I hate dishes.

[Lenlo]

Latch onto something Shad did like immediately at the start of game, never let it go, then follow a scumbag onto a very likely townie, and finally follow Nolder onto me.

 

Essentially just hang out all day and night and do no work, claim cop D2 with 1 vote on you, reason: Can't be bothered to argue anyone besides yourself is guilty.

 

Still don't understand what our town powers are doing this game.

 

What do vanilla townies do? Is it just up to them to solve the game? You didn't stop being a vanilla townie when you got a doctor or cop role. You're a vanilla townie with extra benefits, it's not supposed to handicap you into being passive.

 

Just don't understand this at all.

Pizza Wth is that top sentence? Cause none of that is me, if that's what your responding to.

[Lenlo]

Pizza, I've never been good deciding who to use PRs on. It's not something I ever learned. Also still don't see how Z was the Obv vig target tonight, but whatever. You seem to be continuing on the assumption that I'm still scum and your simply lookin for my teammate. That's a horrible way to go about things.

[Askthepizzaguy]

 

Latch onto something Shad did like immediately at the start of game, never let it go, then follow a scumbag onto a very likely townie, and finally follow Nolder onto me.

 

Essentially just hang out all day and night and do no work, claim cop D2 with 1 vote on you, reason: Can't be bothered to argue anyone besides yourself is guilty.

 

Still don't understand what our town powers are doing this game.

 

What do vanilla townies do? Is it just up to them to solve the game? You didn't stop being a vanilla townie when you got a doctor or cop role. You're a vanilla townie with extra benefits, it's not supposed to handicap you into being passive.

 

Just don't understand this at all.

Pizza Wth is that top sentence? Cause none of that is me, if that's what your responding to.

 

 

That was Turin.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Pizza, I've never been good deciding who to use PRs on. It's not something I ever learned. Also still don't see how Z was the Obv vig target tonight, but whatever. You seem to be continuing on the assumption that I'm still scum and your simply lookin for my teammate. That's a horrible way to go about things.

 

I'm considering it as a possibility, however more likely you are the cop or my vote would be on you still. If you are guilty, then I found 3 out of 4, with help from Shad. And Kaylee. And claims, I guess.

[Askthepizzaguy]

But more likely I found 2 and then I also found 2 others. 50% is a bad score.

 

I need a dead scum today or I won't be that happy.

[Kaylee]

All of Celeste's posts since the flip last night.

 

Ok. Sorry I haven't been here in a while. Zander pushed Lenny/me a lot which makes me think we were his scape goats. I also wanted to say earlier that Csarmi town read Zander before scum reading him I believe.

 

 

This to me reads as "See Wish and I can't be scum since Zander was making us his scape goats". First off I believe that was true of Wish. He didn't spend as much time on Celeste doing it. The " a lot " is a stretch for her unless I'm remembering wrong. Overall this post could be null to scum.

 

 

3-4 mafia for 13 players? Agreed or Disagreed

 

 

Null statement focusing on mechanics.

 

 

 

Kind of not feeling good on Kaylee with how much Zander said they are mind melding.

[v]Kaylee[/v]

 

 

Out of everything she could vote me for this seems like weak reasoning. At least go with the case Piazza made. Scummy

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ok. Sorry I haven't been here in a while. Zander pushed Lenny/me a lot which makes me think we were his scape goats. I also wanted to say earlier that Csarmi town read Zander before scum reading him I believe.

 

 

Kind of not feeling good on Kaylee with how much Zander said they are mind melding.

[v]Kaylee[/v]

 

I'm not opposed to this but I really need to figure you two out.

 

The vibe I got toward EoD was that Kaylee did a lot to get out of her lynch, and she did it well. This could come from Scum or Town Kaylee IMO. My gut feel later was that she could be scum bussing Csarmi and buddying me once Csarmi started going down (if I've understood correctly, this is in Kaylee's meta and something she does well). It was a strong feel and FWIW if she's the scum this fits with Shad's theory that I'm scum scapegoat in Zander's eyes. There were a couple of things she said that I thought were either indications that she was genuinely more confident that I was Town or buddying me. It freaked me out a little and I backed off to see how she'd respond today. I wish I could trust her, but I don't.

 

On the other hand, I always read Kay scum. She's impossible for me. She could be Town.

 

@Penny

I think you're probably Town, but I can't lock you in yet, and I'd feel better if I could. 

 

1. Why are you pulling out Kaylee in particular? IMO he mentioned mind-melding much more noticeably with Laine. 

 

2. What do you make of Nolder, Lenlo, Pral? 

 

 

 

 

General thought: If there is a Godfather, it's probably not Wish.

 

Unless you think Zander hard busses his GF on day 1.

 Also, love the hard work you put in last night but we have to reconsider EoD in light of confirmed competing scum trains.

 

blue was @ Laine btw

 

I can see Zander hard bussing GF D1, for sure.

 

Where are you at on Nolder and Pral?

1. Laine seemed to have some reservations to Zander saying they are mind melding I believe. Kaylee didn't have any hesitant thoughts at all to it.

2. Pral I have been suspicious of. This feels like his scum play.[\b] Nolder needs to be looked at closely today. Lenlo is still iffy because he tunneled me most of yesterday. Didn't seem to be looking elsewhere.

 

 

 

OK so you vote me for weak reasoning. While explaining that reasoning you say the bold. Wait what?! If your feel he's on his scum game and is scummy why not vote there? It would make more sense. Why vote someone who "mind melded" with a known scummy over someone you feel is scummy and on their scum game? Really scummy.

 

 

 

 

 

1. Laine seemed to have some reservations to Zander saying they are mind melding I believe. Kaylee didn't have any hesitant thoughts at all to it.

2. Pral I have been suspicious of. This feels like his scum play. Nolder needs to be looked at closely today. Lenlo is still iffy because he tunneled me most of yesterday. Didn't seem to be looking elsewhere.

I like red from you. Shows you're thinking and paying attention.

That's pretty much my D1 if people want me to provide some facts later on with my gut reads.

  

 

What about what's happened D2, besides what I've just pointed out.

 

 

 

I need to look into Turin a bit more. I believe a clue could be in his posts. I'm on my phone though.

 

 

 

Still interested in hearing this.

 

 

 

 

I couldn't finish ISOing Zander last night.

 

a) I had seen enough

b) I was tired af

c) Sooh was going to bed and I wanted cuddle tiems

d) I was kinda hoping a vig would shoot Zander so I wouldn't have to continue

 

Good shot, vig. That was never a SK because a scum went down already, outed doctor, the scums would shoot the doctor, so you know you have a free shot on obvious townies like myself.

 

Ergo, we have a lock clear vigilante.

This isn't really clear to me since the SK would still have to get rid of mafia to win. Idk what basic setup is on DM. So I just might be blabbering.

Seems clear but OK. Null statement.

 

 

  

@Cass will get to your question once I get on laptop.

 

 

Look forward to it. (Another promise of work. I'd null unless she doesn't do it).

 

 

Anyways I really should sleep now.

Nothing here but it was another of her posts so I added it.

 

  

 

 

 

 

IMO put Shad and myself on Ignore mode when you do re-reads.

 

Those people should be blue.

 

Nolder.

 

 

Pizza, I'm going to be honest and say it's posts like this of yours and Cory's that freak me out. I have you Town, but it's a silly move to ever put you blue IMO.

 

What's do you actually mean by 'Nolder'?

 

It's a silly move to say that certain players can never be blue.

 

Context, Cass. Nolder begrudgingly admits I'm not the top suspect.

 

I'm blue. Deal with it.

I'm going to be honest here, if I heard anybody say that on my home site I would place my vote ASAP. It's pretty pingy to me but not sure how other sites handle such statements.

 

Possibly an attempt to fling dirt piazzas way.

 

 

  

 

Feel free.

i was just stating that. The rest of my statement was me not knowing how it applies here but just saying it's odd. Laine I need to sleep.

Backs off.

 

 

  

Oh gosh I remember the last game I lost it in as town now. Yeah, I will link it once I'm on a laptop.

Again doesn't say much unless she doesn't follow through.

 

 

Overall not a good look IMOH. A lot of null but some scummy stuff as well. Considering I expected her to step up her game I'm not impressed. Guess we'll see what she had to say when she's back online. I could switch my vote to her at this point.

[Kaylee]

Pizza, I've never been good deciding who to use PRs on. It's not something I ever learned. Also still don't see how Z was the Obv vig target tonight, but whatever. You seem to be continuing on the assumption that I'm still scum and your simply lookin for my teammate. That's a horrible way to go about things.

Zander was a high lynch target today as more than two people, myself included, no longer trusted him or at least doubted him. That's why he wasn't the best target.

[Celeste]

Turin's ISO leaves me unimpressed, he was pocketed by Zander big time. Shad was in his WTL a lot but I think he is slight town now. Kind of makes me think hypothetically what would a deep wolfing Shad look like? I felt like his points were wish washy in a way with his tunneling too.

[Celeste]

 

 

 

 

Ok. Sorry I haven't been here in a while. Zander pushed Lenny/me a lot which makes me think we were his scape goats. I also wanted to say earlier that Csarmi town read Zander before scum reading him I believe.

 

 

 

Kind of not feeling good on Kaylee with how much Zander said they are mind melding.

[v]Kaylee[/v]

 

I'm not opposed to this but I really need to figure you two out.

 

The vibe I got toward EoD was that Kaylee did a lot to get out of her lynch, and she did it well. This could come from Scum or Town Kaylee IMO. My gut feel later was that she could be scum bussing Csarmi and buddying me once Csarmi started going down (if I've understood correctly, this is in Kaylee's meta and something she does well). It was a strong feel and FWIW if she's the scum this fits with Shad's theory that I'm scum scapegoat in Zander's eyes. There were a couple of things she said that I thought were either indications that she was genuinely more confident that I was Town or buddying me. It freaked me out a little and I backed off to see how she'd respond today. I wish I could trust her, but I don't.

 

On the other hand, I always read Kay scum. She's impossible for me. She could be Town.

 

@Penny

I think you're probably Town, but I can't lock you in yet, and I'd feel better if I could. 

 

1. Why are you pulling out Kaylee in particular? IMO he mentioned mind-melding much more noticeably with Laine. 

 

2. What do you make of Nolder, Lenlo, Pral? 

 

 

 

General thought: If there is a Godfather, it's probably not Wish.

 

Unless you think Zander hard busses his GF on day 1.

 

Also, love the hard work you put in last night but we have to reconsider EoD in light of confirmed competing scum trains.

 

blue was @ Laine btw

 

I can see Zander hard bussing GF D1, for sure.

 

Where are you at on Nolder and Pral?

 

 

 

1. Laine seemed to have some reservations to Zander saying they are mind melding I believe. Kaylee didn't have any hesitant thoughts at all to it.

 

2. Pral I have been suspicious of. This feels like his scum play. Nolder needs to be looked at closely today. Lenlo is still iffy because he tunneled me most of yesterday. Didn't seem to be looking elsewhere.

 

 

Oh Penny, what am I going to do with you??

 

1. Ok, good point. Why is this enough to vote? Have you got anything else?

 

2. Give me examples of how Pral's play feels scummy to you. Explain as much as you can.

 

 

While we're at it, please find me some examples where you've cracked under pressure when Town. 

 

 

 

 If you're Town, I feel I intuitively get you now. I can't fully trust that yet though, I haven't seen all of your content and I haven't seen you scum :P

 

 

 

 

*snipped*

*snipped*

1. It just felt right in a way. I just feel like Kaylee has more wolf equity with her talking of Zander in a way than others.

 

2. I really can't explain gut vibes well, you just have to believe me on them.  http://www.quicktopic.com/51/H/Ft5AzhkhYF4W I don't remember where it got rough but it was a horrible loss of temper for me.

[Pralaya]

But more likely I found 2 and then I also found 2 others. 50% is a bad score.

 

I need a dead scum today or I won't be that happy.

If you want to do it, let's start looking at the wagon. What do you think happened? Csarmi was a completely town led lynch which zander decide to join due to no other choice? If not, who in that csarmi wagon is scum?