Age of Legends [standard] Mafia - Game Over

[alannalynn]

 

Oh. So nothing really important then?

I'm in the middle of homework and have to leave for work work soon...

Um. That Hallia ISO? Halfway done. I may have fallen asleep this morning.

 

Looking forward to see it

Please don't sound so excited, Nyn

 

@Clovvy

???Scum!Kivam?

 

?

[Nynaeve]

I'M ECSTATIC!

[alannalynn]

I'M ECSTATIC!

[Clovdyx]

Clov, help me out here. You've said a couple of times that the game is pretty much won... but I'm not feeling as confident.

 

 

What are you thinking?

 

I'm thinking it's 7-2, and the only person giving particularly solid cover is dead, so it's time for me to hardclaim cop.  

 

N0 - Thane town

 

Reasoning: Randomized town

 

N1 - Dicetosser town.

 

Reasoning: After Crusher's flip, I was extremely confident that AJ and Nyn were town.  Like, I could not fathom either of them being mafia; I was obviously correct about AJ, and if Nyn's mafia here, then seriously...she wins this game every time.  Exceptional towntelling, great tone, good placement on Crusher's lynch, Crusher's opportunistic push on her.  I was pretty shocked when IR flipped town, but I would be more shocked if Nyn is mafia here.  This is as close to a peek as I can get without one.

 

I've already stated multiple times why Nolder made no sense for Crusher's teammate.  The only way that I could have seen him being mafia is if Shad was ALSO mafia and Nolder decided Shad had a better chance to win the game than Crusher.  Well, that, or Crusher hooked up with Nolder's girlfriend or mother.

 

Kivam was an unlikely, but not impossible, teammate.  In any case, I wasn't going to peek him after he directly contributed to a mafia lynch, who also went at him.  I'm not going to ignore the possibility of a two-way bus now that we're in POE territory, but it was't worth it then.  I'm still reasonably comfortable with my thinking that Mafia!Alanna lets it go random, rather than putting the nails in a teammate's coffin, and praying it took out Shad.  

 

That means my POE for my peek (and the remaining two mafia) was Shad, Calder, Zander, Dice, and Hallia.  I knew I wasn't going to peek Shad or Calder, because they were NEVER going to be teammates with one another; we could resolve by lynch, and a mafia flip would spew the other.  This was also true for Zander-Shad.  

 

Meanwhile, Dice and Hallia could have been teammates with eachother, or any of the other three.  Hallia was my strongest mafia suspect, so I didn't see how it was beneficial to peek her; if she came up guilty, I'm just lynching who I intended anyways.  If she's town, that's a clear player, but her being town automatically bumped up everybody else's chances.  This left Dice.  He was a reasonable enough suspect because he wasn't being super obviously town  - something a lot of people think he is, when is IS town - and he fit with the most number of teams.

 

Why I lied about peeking Alanna at EoD2: He died.  If I caught a bullet, it would SHC Alanna, which would have been pretty much as productive as actually peeking her.  If she was mafia, the odds I catch a bullet N2 over someone with correct peeks was pretty low, so there was minimal risk of "confirming" Mafia!Laine as town.

 

N2 - Shad town.  I really had no idea what to do here, but Calder's flip was a huge contributor to this.  I would have locked Shad clear with the mafia!Calder flip, but obviously we didn't get that.  With Zander presumably having been town, that means both of Shad's biggest pushers were town...didn't think the odds of Shad/Zander/Calder ALL being town were particularly high.  I briefly considered going Nolder here, but Nolder's biggest chance to be mafia was Shad being mafia as well (this goes back to him tying Mafia!Crusher with Unflipped!Shad D1).  If my Shad peek came back guilty, I would have bumped Nolder up to suspect #3 (behind Hallia and Shad, himself).  

 

Also considered Alanna, but I was probably most comfortable with her of remaining candidates, so a town result wouldn't have put us in much better of a position than we already were.

 

 

This means, barring an absolute deepwolfing from Nyn or SUPER!FPS play from Zander, we have five confirmed townies: me, Thane, Shad, Zander, Nyn.  This leaves four suspects: Hallia, Laine, Kivam, and Nolder.  We have two mislynches to give.  If we do NOT lynch within my confirmed townie pile (and I have not miscleared anyone...I'm pretty damn positive I haven't)....town literally cannot lose this game.

 

Game.  Is.  Locked.

[Clovdyx]

Game.  Is.  Locked.  was supposed to be blue :(

[Clovdyx]

I'll sit here and wait for one of the mafia to counterclaim.

[Clovdyx]

Shout out to Dice for being convincing enough to catch the N1, and mad props to AJ for doubling down on D2 when I tried to frame you as the cop.  I don't know if you knew I was the actual cop, but you responded perfectly.  #BTY SwAg.

[Clovdyx]

Did...did I break it?

[Nolder]

GJ Clov.

I don't agree on Xander but he's not one of the wildcards I'm most concerned with anyway so wasn't planning on lynching him tomorrow regardless.

 

Also it's times like these I wish we were playing hybrid hammer lol.

This game probably could have been over by now if we could just hammer people.

[Nynaeve]

I feel better now. lol

 

 

Question. Out of those four.... what order would you place them?  Halli is first for me. But I'm conflicted about the remaining three.

 

 

 

Also, can you explain your read on Zander. It's not that I don't agree... I have a good feeling about him. But I don't have the best track record at reading him and I wanna know your rationale.

[Clovdyx]

Well, this is the thing about Zander: mafia had a reason to kill Dice.  I don't know what that reason is, but I have to assume it was because of his opening post (where he very clearly presented a peek on Zander).  Either Zander really is town, or Zander is mafia and killed somebody he KNEW wasn't the cop.  

 

The latter means he guaranteed the ACTUAL cop was alive, and that's with Zander being a pretty understandable peek for N1.  He wasn't on Crusher's wagon, and more importantly, he was one of the main proponents of the counterwagon.  It was no guarantee Zander would catch a peek, but mafia!Zander has to consider the possibility.

 

Then he did it again on N2 by killing AJ - who explicitly stated a town peek on Zander (very viable, for the reasons already stated).  Again, if Zander is mafia, he willingly CHOSE to give the cop two free peeks.  It's not impossible, but it's exceptionally unlikely.

 

 

 

(Also, ego tells me that after directly impacting the Crusher lynch with both my argument and my vote, plus a correct peek, IncorrectPeek!Dice doesn't draw the NK over me).

[Nynaeve]

I'm trying to think about the things that stick out to me about Alanna, Kivam and Nolder.

 

Kivam pushed me and got Crusher to show his ass. Nolder tied the trains in favor of lynching Crusher.... and Alanna voted Crusher... but only after you tied the trains. Bussing aside, her contribution prolly seems the smallest. Factoring in bussing.... I dunno. Laine's vote was one of the last ones on the train. Kivam's was the first vote since he was the main player pushing the lynch. And Nolder... like we already said.... could have turned the tables on Shad but didn't.

 

Kivam has been more quiet since Crusher got lynched... but it seems like a big part of it is him being away so...

[Clovdyx]

I feel better now. lol

 

 

Question. Out of those four.... what order would you place them?  Halli is first for me. But I'm conflicted about the remaining three.

 

 

 

Also, can you explain your read on Zander. It's not that I don't agree... I have a good feeling about him. But I don't have the best track record at reading him and I wanna know your rationale.

 

I legitimately don't care.  I guess Hallia, Kivam, Laine, Nolder, but it doesn't matter.  I'm trying to win the game, and the only way that doesn't happen is if I miscleared you or Zander went with an insanely suboptimal route and got massively lucky.

[Nolder]

Well, this is the thing about Zander: mafia had a reason to kill Dice.  I don't know what that reason is, but I have to assume it was because of his opening post (where he very clearly presented a peek on Zander).  Either Zander really is town, or Zander is mafia and killed somebody he KNEW wasn't the cop.  

 

The latter means he guaranteed the ACTUAL cop was alive, and that's with Zander being a pretty understandable peek for N1.  He wasn't on Crusher's wagon, and more importantly, he was one of the main proponents of the counterwagon.  It was no guarantee Zander would catch a peek, but mafia!Zander has to consider the possibility.

 

Then he did it again on N2 by killing AJ - who explicitly stated a town peek on Zander (very viable, for the reasons already stated).  Again, if Zander is mafia, he willingly CHOSE to give the cop two free peeks.  It's not impossible, but it's exceptionally unlikely.

 

 

 

(Also, ego tells me that after directly impacting the Crusher lynch with both my argument and my vote, plus a correct peek, IncorrectPeek!Dice doesn't draw the NK over me).

That all makes sense to me. Just like the Thane thing.

Ok then.

[Kivam]

I like this play from Clov very very much.  Don't expect a cc even if he isn't actually the cop.

 

Anyway, I think to maximize the odds of the mechanical lock tomorrow, we need to lynch from a group of players who have not been peeked by anyone, and preferably someone with a dead townie in their own peek list.  Anyone want to go back through the thread to make that list?

 

If not, I'm home now so I'll do it myself once I've unpacked and updated the VC in Ragnarok

 

 

Clov, help me out here. You've said a couple of times that the game is pretty much won... but I'm not feeling as confident.

 

 

What are you thinking?

 

I'm thinking it's 7-2, and the only person giving particularly solid cover is dead, so it's time for me to hardclaim cop.  

 

N0 - Thane town

 

Reasoning: Randomized town

 

N1 - Dicetosser town.

 

Reasoning: After Crusher's flip, I was extremely confident that AJ and Nyn were town.  Like, I could not fathom either of them being mafia; I was obviously correct about AJ, and if Nyn's mafia here, then seriously...she wins this game every time.  Exceptional towntelling, great tone, good placement on Crusher's lynch, Crusher's opportunistic push on her.  I was pretty shocked when IR flipped town, but I would be more shocked if Nyn is mafia here.  This is as close to a peek as I can get without one.

 

I've already stated multiple times why Nolder made no sense for Crusher's teammate.  The only way that I could have seen him being mafia is if Shad was ALSO mafia and Nolder decided Shad had a better chance to win the game than Crusher.  Well, that, or Crusher hooked up with Nolder's girlfriend or mother.

 

Kivam was an unlikely, but not impossible, teammate.  In any case, I wasn't going to peek him after he directly contributed to a mafia lynch, who also went at him.  I'm not going to ignore the possibility of a two-way bus now that we're in POE territory, but it was't worth it then.  I'm still reasonably comfortable with my thinking that Mafia!Alanna lets it go random, rather than putting the nails in a teammate's coffin, and praying it took out Shad.  

 

That means my POE for my peek (and the remaining two mafia) was Shad, Calder, Zander, Dice, and Hallia.  I knew I wasn't going to peek Shad or Calder, because they were NEVER going to be teammates with one another; we could resolve by lynch, and a mafia flip would spew the other.  This was also true for Zander-Shad.  

 

Meanwhile, Dice and Hallia could have been teammates with eachother, or any of the other three.  Hallia was my strongest mafia suspect, so I didn't see how it was beneficial to peek her; if she came up guilty, I'm just lynching who I intended anyways.  If she's town, that's a clear player, but her being town automatically bumped up everybody else's chances.  This left Dice.  He was a reasonable enough suspect because he wasn't being super obviously town  - something a lot of people think he is, when is IS town - and he fit with the most number of teams.

 

Why I lied about peeking Alanna at EoD2: He died.  If I caught a bullet, it would SHC Alanna, which would have been pretty much as productive as actually peeking her.  If she was mafia, the odds I catch a bullet N2 over someone with correct peeks was pretty low, so there was minimal risk of "confirming" Mafia!Laine as town.

 

N2 - Shad town.  I really had no idea what to do here, but Calder's flip was a huge contributor to this.  I would have locked Shad clear with the mafia!Calder flip, but obviously we didn't get that.  With Zander presumably having been town, that means both of Shad's biggest pushers were town...didn't think the odds of Shad/Zander/Calder ALL being town were particularly high.  I briefly considered going Nolder here, but Nolder's biggest chance to be mafia was Shad being mafia as well (this goes back to him tying Mafia!Crusher with Unflipped!Shad D1).  If my Shad peek came back guilty, I would have bumped Nolder up to suspect #3 (behind Hallia and Shad, himself).  

 

Also considered Alanna, but I was probably most comfortable with her of remaining candidates, so a town result wouldn't have put us in much better of a position than we already were.

 

 

This means, barring an absolute deepwolfing from Nyn or SUPER!FPS play from Zander, we have five confirmed townies: me, Thane, Shad, Zander, Nyn.  This leaves four suspects: Hallia, Laine, Kivam, and Nolder.  We have two mislynches to give.  If we do NOT lynch within my confirmed townie pile (and I have not miscleared anyone...I'm pretty damn positive I haven't)....town literally cannot lose this game.

 

Game.  Is.  Locked.

 

 

[Nynaeve]

 

I feel better now. lol

 

 

Question. Out of those four.... what order would you place them?  Halli is first for me. But I'm conflicted about the remaining three.

 

 

 

Also, can you explain your read on Zander. It's not that I don't agree... I have a good feeling about him. But I don't have the best track record at reading him and I wanna know your rationale.

 

I legitimately don't care.  I guess Hallia, Kivam, Laine, Nolder, but it doesn't matter.  I'm trying to win the game, and the only way that doesn't happen is if I miscleared you or Zander went with an insanely suboptimal route and got massively lucky.

 

 

We're 9 left. Assuming we lynch Halli today and she flips scum... we start D4 with 7 players (1 scum, 6 townies). With two confirmed townies..... one SHC.... and me... (1:6, 1:4, 1:2).... you're right, it doesn't matter. 

[Kivam]

I'm trying to think about the things that stick out to me about Alanna, Kivam and Nolder.

 

Kivam pushed me and got Crusher to show his ass. Nolder tied the trains in favor of lynching Crusher.... and Alanna voted Crusher... but only after you tied the trains. Bussing aside, her contribution prolly seems the smallest. Factoring in bussing.... I dunno. Laine's vote was one of the last ones on the train. Kivam's was the first vote since he was the main player pushing the lynch. And Nolder... like we already said.... could have turned the tables on Shad but didn't.

 

Kivam has been more quiet since Crusher got lynched... but it seems like a big part of it is him being away so...

yeah.  that ends tonight

[Nynaeve]

Anyway, I think to maximize the odds of the mechanical lock tomorrow, we need to lynch from a group of players who have not been peeked by anyone, and preferably someone with a dead townie in their own peek list.  Anyone want to go back through the thread to make that list?

 

Can you explain this? I don't follow. 

[Nynaeve]

5 - Thane feels very much off.  His entry to the thread is not the entry I've seen multiple times now from townThane [even his bartending seemed obligatory], and he strikes me as a player who enjoys the game much less as scum than as town.  I don't understand that, but the change in his behavior fits with that mentality, and if that's what's happening, I like Thane enough as a human being to want to put him out of his misery.

 

Now that Clov claimed to have peeked Thane town.... this early D1 push on Thane looks... interesting.

[Shad_]

 

Let me just go ahead and [v]Laine[/v] for now because pressure needs to be there.

You called?

 

Yeah, I need to figure you out because POE says scum and I'm not seeing it, but Nyn says I'm not allowed to question you so I guess you're lock clear.

[Nynaeve]

 

 

Let me just go ahead and [v]Laine[/v] for now because pressure needs to be there.

You called?

 

Yeah, I need to figure you out because POE says scum and I'm not seeing it, but Nyn says I'm not allowed to question you so I guess you're lock clear.

 

 

LOL  sour puss?

[Clovdyx]

 

 

Let me just go ahead and [v]Laine[/v] for now because pressure needs to be there.

You called?

 

Yeah, I need to figure you out because POE says scum and I'm not seeing it, but Nyn says I'm not allowed to question you so I guess you're lock clear.

 

 

Question her on anything and everything.  :)

[Nynaeve]

ftr, I never said she was even close to be being clear.

[Shad_]

 

Clov, help me out here. You've said a couple of times that the game is pretty much won... but I'm not feeling as confident.

 

 

What are you thinking?

 

I'm thinking it's 7-2, and the only person giving particularly solid cover is dead, so it's time for me to hardclaim cop.  

 

N0 - Thane town

 

Reasoning: Randomized town

 

N1 - Dicetosser town.

 

Reasoning: After Crusher's flip, I was extremely confident that AJ and Nyn were town.  Like, I could not fathom either of them being mafia; I was obviously correct about AJ, and if Nyn's mafia here, then seriously...she wins this game every time.  Exceptional towntelling, great tone, good placement on Crusher's lynch, Crusher's opportunistic push on her.  I was pretty shocked when IR flipped town, but I would be more shocked if Nyn is mafia here.  This is as close to a peek as I can get without one.

 

I've already stated multiple times why Nolder made no sense for Crusher's teammate.  The only way that I could have seen him being mafia is if Shad was ALSO mafia and Nolder decided Shad had a better chance to win the game than Crusher.  Well, that, or Crusher hooked up with Nolder's girlfriend or mother.

 

Kivam was an unlikely, but not impossible, teammate.  In any case, I wasn't going to peek him after he directly contributed to a mafia lynch, who also went at him.  I'm not going to ignore the possibility of a two-way bus now that we're in POE territory, but it was't worth it then.  I'm still reasonably comfortable with my thinking that Mafia!Alanna lets it go random, rather than putting the nails in a teammate's coffin, and praying it took out Shad.  

 

That means my POE for my peek (and the remaining two mafia) was Shad, Calder, Zander, Dice, and Hallia.  I knew I wasn't going to peek Shad or Calder, because they were NEVER going to be teammates with one another; we could resolve by lynch, and a mafia flip would spew the other.  This was also true for Zander-Shad.  

 

Meanwhile, Dice and Hallia could have been teammates with eachother, or any of the other three.  Hallia was my strongest mafia suspect, so I didn't see how it was beneficial to peek her; if she came up guilty, I'm just lynching who I intended anyways.  If she's town, that's a clear player, but her being town automatically bumped up everybody else's chances.  This left Dice.  He was a reasonable enough suspect because he wasn't being super obviously town  - something a lot of people think he is, when is IS town - and he fit with the most number of teams.

 

Why I lied about peeking Alanna at EoD2: He died.  If I caught a bullet, it would SHC Alanna, which would have been pretty much as productive as actually peeking her.  If she was mafia, the odds I catch a bullet N2 over someone with correct peeks was pretty low, so there was minimal risk of "confirming" Mafia!Laine as town.

 

N2 - Shad town.  I really had no idea what to do here, but Calder's flip was a huge contributor to this.  I would have locked Shad clear with the mafia!Calder flip, but obviously we didn't get that.  With Zander presumably having been town, that means both of Shad's biggest pushers were town...didn't think the odds of Shad/Zander/Calder ALL being town were particularly high.  I briefly considered going Nolder here, but Nolder's biggest chance to be mafia was Shad being mafia as well (this goes back to him tying Mafia!Crusher with Unflipped!Shad D1).  If my Shad peek came back guilty, I would have bumped Nolder up to suspect #3 (behind Hallia and Shad, himself).  

 

Also considered Alanna, but I was probably most comfortable with her of remaining candidates, so a town result wouldn't have put us in much better of a position than we already were.

 

 

This means, barring an absolute deepwolfing from Nyn or SUPER!FPS play from Zander, we have five confirmed townies: me, Thane, Shad, Zander, Nyn.  This leaves four suspects: Hallia, Laine, Kivam, and Nolder.  We have two mislynches to give.  If we do NOT lynch within my confirmed townie pile (and I have not miscleared anyone...I'm pretty damn positive I haven't)....town literally cannot lose this game.

 

Game.  Is.  Locked.

 

 

[Kivam]

y

 

 

Anyway, I think to maximize the odds of the mechanical lock tomorrow, we need to lynch from a group of players who have not been peeked by anyone, and preferably someone with a dead townie in their own peek list.  Anyone want to go back through the thread to make that list?

 

Can you explain this? I don't follow. 

 

Sure.

 

If we have a live seer tomorrow with at least three live town views, the game is mechanically locked (there will be a counterclaim, but that's easy to deal with).  Of course, if you believe Clov's hardclaim, he'll die tonight anyway, but I think he's just looking to draw the NK away from the real cop, since he's too good of a player to trade the chance at mechanical lock for an early hardclaim that accomplishes literally nothing (the zander logic holds with or without his claim, and neither Thane nor Shad is on the block today and in need of protection).  If I hadn't peeked him N0, I'd say that was a scum move to draw the counterclaim before mechanical lock, but since I know he's town, that can't be his motivation).

 

That means we need to maximize the odds of having a seer +3 live townviews tomorrow.  Lynching someone who's been identified as townpeeked minimizes the odds of that happening ... so we need to lynch someone who hasn't had any townpeeks on them.

 

FYI, you were my peek last night; glad to confirm my read on you (my general rule is to investigate from clean to scummy and lynch from scummy to clean)