Ragnarok Game Thread - Game Over, Town Wins!

[Talya]

@BFG my apologies...I'm in need of sleep. Should go.

 

As for the KNOW bit you said "5 investigative roles? One's likely Mafia, but night 1 they all went to town" that means you know they are all town, how do you know?

[Talya]

I would think maybe the watcher role would be Mafia.

 

I need to get to bed night all.

[Songstress]

 

 

BFG and Tress.

 

Who do you want to lynch most in the world and who do you want to lynch least?

And which read are you more confident of?

I get what you're asking here, fwiw.

 

Least right now is Mish with 99% confidence.

 

Most is somewhat up in the air without looking at my notes. Taborline and Verbal come to mind first. I'm at work for another 5 hours and will give my definite wtl with reasons when I get home. Performance metrics won't allow me to spend much time on the game until then.

[BFG]

@BFG my apologies...I'm in need of sleep. Should go.

 

As for the KNOW bit you said "5 investigative roles? One's likely Mafia, but night 1 they all went to town" that means you know they are all town, how do you know?

I don't know. I know I am town, I believe Mish and Eldrick are town.

 

EBWOP

 

"night 1 they all probably went to town"

[BFG]

I actually really dislike that Tina isn't voting me. The fact that she has me so far down on her list is bothering me. I haven't seen her to do anything in regards to discerning my alignment. It's like she just arbitrarily decided I'm scum. I'm not seeing her #solve. I love that she's seen nothing to change her mind, well I haven't had the chance to post anything of substance yet since end of day yesterday. She also failed to answer Key's question directed towards her regarding my calling her out as OMGUS. She's not circling back and following up.

 

Only person I've had time to ISO yet and it's not looking good. Tina, care to actually ask me questions that mean anything or follow up on the ones you have?

I actually like this post and explanation a lot more than the 'safe' reads argument

[BFG]

 

 

ODIN, TOWN COP, HAS BEEN LYNCHED

 

FINAL VOTE COUNT

 

Ocicat (4) - Tina, Dice, Verbal, Pralaya

Pral (9) - Leelou, Ocicat, Sooh, Lenlo, WishLESTE, John Snow, Eldrick, Mish, Talya

Verbal (4) - Songstress, Sili, KeyBOOSE, Taborline

 

 

NIGHT HAS FALLEN. NIGHT ACTIONS ARE DUE BY NOON EASTERN ON WEDNESDAY (25 HOURS FROM NOW)

This is the last VC for Pral, updated with what we know.

 

Sadly not that telling. So I dunno why but I feel bad about the Verb train, if only because I think atleast 1 scum was following Cory there to stay on his good side/separate themselves from their team. (This is assuming Verbal is town which we have no guarantee of. Its just in my head for some reason)

 

For the Pral train WishLeste and Talya kinda catch my fancy as ones to look at today. 

 

Other peoples thoughts on who to look at?

 

This possibly looks good for Lenlo?

 

Lenlo why those 2?

[Lenlo]

Cause Wish basically followed me/Cory onto it at the time.

 

For Talya, cause she hammered with less than stellar reasoning imo.

[BFG]

#1776 wish-tree

 

Asks if Tina's vote was opportunistic?

 

Asks Sili if he still thinks Tress has basically no content and maybe a 'bossy wolf'

 

Links Ocicat/Mish/Sili?

 

Snows unvote is convenient (from Lenlo, Lenlo not cleared)

 

 

 

Mafia spew isn't a strong point of mine, but I think that Tress, Lenlo, Snow look good and Tina/AJ less so

[BFG]

Cause Wish basically followed me/Cory onto it at the time.

 

For Talya, cause she hammered with less than stellar reasoning imo.

Ok thanks :)

[BFG]

I'm also curious why Wish is on your list. She's been a controversial read.

:/

[Andrej]

Home from work and I don't have the kiddo until later, so I'm gonna pound out some more reading and maybe an ISO or two after I've settled in.

[Andrej]

Was hoping more people would be around to chat :/

 

DL is tomorrow folks!

[Andrej]

 

Tina/Leelou - I keep bouncing back and forth with these two due to their tunnel on one another. It's possible they're both town, and there have been times I have leaned town on both of them, but they are each so convinced the other is mafia that it's throwing me off. Except for their opinions on one another, they seem to coming to similar conclusions.

This reads to me as a w/v analysis. It's more likely for a wolf to agree with a town on everything except the person they are opposed than it is a teammate, or for it to be 2 townies doing it to each other IMO. Question is who is the wolf in this group?

 

Who do YOU think is the wolf between the two?

 

Wow I was apparently very popular over the weekend with Celeste.  Initial impressions from your ISO here is that she was looking to push a reasonably easy mislynch as I haven't been around enough to defend myself (or do anything, really).

 

Who was the primary counterwagon to her hydra yesterday?

 

Gross.

 

The pointed question at the end is just so fake sounding and is the sort of thing I can see Verb pointing back to just so he can so "Look, I really had no idea what was going on! See - I asked a question I couldn't have known the answer to!"

 

 

 

I'm that obvious.

 

What?

 

Because Sili had said my post from last deadline was bad, and had me increasingly on his list, and then he dies and JS immediately votes for me. 

 

Terrible reaction imo.

 

 

I find Verbal's silence to be odd. Is he not active usually?

 

Super out of place comment.

 

Afaict Celeste has never played with Verbal, so why think the silence was odd?

 

 

Also with what Mish pointed out with the Verbal/Tayla/Leelou chat it looks odd to be but I can't quite but my finger on it.

 

[v]Tayla[/v] It's a gut vibe mostly. 

 

Worth noting along with the post above where she's calling Verb odd. Mentions him again here but votes Talya instead. Not sure what it says about Verbal but seems like pretty obvious cog-dis on Celeste's part (hindsight bias )

 

I still feel like these are important btw.

 

I can't think of much that explains the result I got last night, to be honest.

 

Deputy/Back-up never crossed your mind?

 

 

 

 

WishLeste is honestly in my orange because they have so many people suspecting them already and I needed to go back  and read them. Quite simply they are there because they were scum read by almost the entire town. 

 

Bold: she needs to go back and read their posts + they are scum read by almost the entire town. Is that a slip? Does she know who is town? 

 

THIS is the slip that you're asking about? I doubt it.

 

"The town" refers to the player populace as a whole afaict. Stretching here on your part.

 

 

 

On the same note, given the choice between lynching mafia and Loki, what's the best play? I assume mafia has roles too, so they gain info from it. On the other hand, town's investigative roles don't need Loki dead to know what they do. On the other hand, he sort of blocks our doc. 

 

What did you mean by this?

 

He already answered, but I thought this was obvious. Doc didn't know he was the doc. Doc doesn't get a result back, and therefore wouldn't know until Loki was dead. Ergo, blocks the doc.

 

 

I find Verbal's silence to be odd. Is he not active usually?

 

Super out of place comment.

 

Afaict Celeste has never played with Verbal, so why think the silence was odd?

 

This point is moot IMO. How would you react to someone not posting on the thread for days, if you didn't know their meta. It would be odd, yes?

 

Obvious answer or no, there was a reason I asked John to address it.

 

And I don't think the point is moot at all. Why not bring up someone else like Pral who hadn't been posting? The reference is out of place and isn't really a naturally occurring thought imo if she needs to ask if that's his usual playstyle. It wasn't like he was the ONLY quiet player. Also the entire point of this that you seem to be disregarding is that Celeste was SCUM. So her asking a pointed question about a player has some sort of motive behind it. On the note of it being a few days, I would actually need to check the timestamps to see when his last post was and when this question came about. I don't normally look at that sort of stuff when I'm catching up, or reading the thread in general, I just noted how out of place it was with the current discussion.

 

 

http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/95348-ragnarok-game-thread-n2/page-123?do=findComment&comment=3543721

 

Leelou can you explain what it was you didn't like about Tina's list?

 

Yeah, they were all easy scum reads. Verb isn't really around, so he's coming off scummy. Cat was acting all weird, so easy scum read. I poked the CoryBear and made a read from it and people didn't really understand it, so I was scummy. Then there was wisheleste that was actually scum and the only scum read I was comfortable agreeing with her on. 

 

I can dig this response from Leelou.

 

 

 

With Misheru's endorsement of Celeste, I feel it worth noting that Celeste had called on her specifically for thoughts before.

 

 

iirc I saw Mish earlier trying to pin Celeste's WK attempt on my slot as w/w

 

Uhm, what? I don't know what WK means. But you do know I was the first person to push for Wisheste's lynch right?

 

And Oci's trying to tie me and Celeste together is exactly the reason I started going after them in the first place...

 

WK means White Knighting. It's when someone comes to the defense of another player when it wasn't necessary, normally scum towards a townie. Sili actually picked up this and read it correctly that Celeste showed TMI because she neglected to at least pretend to discern Oci's alignment while defending him. That's what his TMI statement was about, ftr.

 

I would hardly saying that Oci was "trying" to tie you to together. There really wasn't any efforts towards it. He made an observation that was pretty obvious and clear ITT. Celeste asked YOU pointedly several times what your opinions/thoughts were. Him pointing this out is null.

 

Tina: Had WiCi as mafia on D1. Had them in her read since then. Had planned to re-read WiCi´s list but never got the time. Voted WiCi when she got back. I´m talking about myself in third person. :D

 

Sounds like something scum would do with a partner catching heat

 

Not sure why you listed yourself here, but I'm glad you did. I will be ISOing you soon and will see if this sort of progression is legit. From what I remember, you did have Celeste/Wish in your bottom reads for most of D1 but you never significantly PUSHED them, instead you parked on Oci - so I'm reticent to give you any sort of credit for it.

 

You forgot to say I had them low on D1 and voted them, but you mention it for others. So not such a thorough job. Also I said I was liking Wish at one point more than Celeste. You got that wrong. I had them as wolf D1 and come in D2 and suddenly they seem to be everyone's bottom. So I questioned it, I also explained why I didn't vote, which you have also missed out. Setting me up here or what?

 

Sort of love this response from Talya. I hope you're not a wolf this game :(

[Andrej]

Okay - just checked. It had only been about a day since Verbal's last post before Celeste asked that question about him.

 

Before that was his tango with Leelou/Cory/Talya on the TMI QT discussion.

 

Not that large of a time lapse - so yes, I do think her asking specifically about him in that situation is worth investigating.

[Eldrick4221]

 

For right now, I am going to vote: Wishleste. My instincts haven't really changed on them; the avoiding explanations, not answering questions, lots of comments that don't really say anything. I would be pretty surprised if they turned out not to be scum.

 

This vote screams bus. 

 

 

Tab is another one I haven't figured out, and this is a good point.

 

 

 

For right now, I am going to vote: Wishleste. My instincts haven't really changed on them; the avoiding explanations, not answering questions, lots of comments that don't really say anything. I would be pretty surprised if they turned out not to be scum.

 

This vote screams bus. 

 

 

But if all three of us were scum, why would I vote Verb on D1, list him as suspicious from the beginning, and also go after Wish? I could have just kept my vote on Verb on D2, but instead I went with what I had seen from my investigations of Wish.

 

 

Why couldn't this be a situation of just the 2 of you being scum, and Verb isn't? Verb's alignment isn't a factor in this situation anyway. If you're scum, you saw that Wish was going down, and hopped on.

 

@Eld and Mish, what were your role on your result. I think I remember Mish saying?

 

FWIW

N1: Tracker result. Targeted Oci, with the idea of targeting my scummiest read, as not many NA's are beneficial

N2: No result. Targeted Mish. Testing the idea that I had a tracker role, and expected to get a result from Mish. I didn't get anything back.

 

I agree that NA discussion should be left alone until we catch Loki, and have no faith in the reliability of our current results. What I do know is something is going on with them, as my 2 nights don't match up.

[Eldrick4221]

 

 

Tina/Leelou - I keep bouncing back and forth with these two due to their tunnel on one another. It's possible they're both town, and there have been times I have leaned town on both of them, but they are each so convinced the other is mafia that it's throwing me off. Except for their opinions on one another, they seem to coming to similar conclusions.

This reads to me as a w/v analysis. It's more likely for a wolf to agree with a town on everything except the person they are opposed than it is a teammate, or for it to be 2 townies doing it to each other IMO. Question is who is the wolf in this group?

 

Who do YOU think is the wolf between the two?

 

I liked Leelou's reason for voting Wish, so I'd lean Tina between the two of them, but I'm not sold on either at the moment.

 

 

 

 

WishLeste is honestly in my orange because they have so many people suspecting them already and I needed to go back  and read them. Quite simply they are there because they were scum read by almost the entire town. 

 

Bold: she needs to go back and read their posts + they are scum read by almost the entire town. Is that a slip? Does she know who is town? 

 

THIS is the slip that you're asking about? I doubt it.

 

"The town" refers to the player populace as a whole afaict. Stretching here on your part.

 

At the same time, though, I didn't like Sooh's reason for the read. She had them as orange "because other people did"

 

 

 

On the same note, given the choice between lynching mafia and Loki, what's the best play? I assume mafia has roles too, so they gain info from it. On the other hand, town's investigative roles don't need Loki dead to know what they do. On the other hand, he sort of blocks our doc. 

 

What did you mean by this?

 

He already answered, but I thought this was obvious. Doc didn't know he was the doc. Doc doesn't get a result back, and therefore wouldn't know until Loki was dead. Ergo, blocks the doc.

 

 

I find Verbal's silence to be odd. Is he not active usually?

 

Super out of place comment.

 

Afaict Celeste has never played with Verbal, so why think the silence was odd?

 

This point is moot IMO. How would you react to someone not posting on the thread for days, if you didn't know their meta. It would be odd, yes?

 

Obvious answer or no, there was a reason I asked John to address it.

 

And I don't think the point is moot at all. Why not bring up someone else like Pral who hadn't been posting? The reference is out of place and isn't really a naturally occurring thought imo if she needs to ask if that's his usual playstyle. It wasn't like he was the ONLY quiet player. Also the entire point of this that you seem to be disregarding is that Celeste was SCUM. So her asking a pointed question about a player has some sort of motive behind it. On the note of it being a few days, I would actually need to check the timestamps to see when his last post was and when this question came about. I don't normally look at that sort of stuff when I'm catching up, or reading the thread in general, I just noted how out of place it was with the current discussion.

 

This says nothing about Verb's alignment, though. The motive could easily be starting a push on a mislynch or giving safe pressure to a teammate. That's why I said it was moot.

 

 

Responses in blue. Snipped out the parts I didn't respond to.

[Eldrick4221]

Okay - just checked. It had only been about a day since Verbal's last post before Celeste asked that question about him.

 

Before that was his tango with Leelou/Cory/Talya on the TMI QT discussion.

 

Not that large of a time lapse - so yes, I do think her asking specifically about him in that situation is worth investigating.

Ok. That's fair. It isn't a noticeable gap of time.

[Andrej]

I guess I misunderstand what you meant by moot, then.

 

I'm contemplating switching to Verb atm although I think there's a good chance Tina is still scum. Looking back at Talya's post that quotes Tina summarizing everyone's actions around WishLeste on D1, Tina misreps Talya pretty considerably there. I actually recall seeing Talya vote them on D1 and thought it was a positive mark on her end. Doesn't strike me as unneeded early distancing unless you want to believe they were both doing it because WishLeste had voted Talya as well.

 

Verb has high Loki equity and going in N3 I think we need to resolve him sooner than later instead of allowing him to continue floating around.

[Andrej]

[unvote]

 

[v]Verb[/v]

 

Going for it. I really don't see any universe where Verb doesn't flip some sort of non-Town role here.

[Eldrick4221]

Verb is reading to me as a player that doesn't have time to focus on the game. I can't figure out his alignment. I had him as scum D1 cuz it was unexpected from him. Now knowing that he had RL get in the way, I'm not as confident about that. I'm worried that he's a townie that's just having trouble keeping up.

[Andrej]

I don't see any reason to think he is a townie besides the benefit of the doubt, which really isn't how this game works. He probably is busy IRL, not gonna accuse him of hiding behind that reason, but it doesn't make him a townie by default.

 

Who are you voting now anyway? JS?

[Andrej]

Like - the time is now to decide who we are going to lynch.

 

I think Verb is the way to go but I'm willing to wagon Tina as well.

 

Taborline would be a distant third if I'm really feeling froggy.

[Eldrick4221]

Like - the time is now to decide who we are going to lynch.

 

I think Verb is the way to go but I'm willing to wagon Tina as well.

 

Taborline would be a distant third if I'm really feeling froggy.

 

Yes. I'm currently voting JS. I know now is the time to decide. Problem is I'm not really sold on anyone at this point.

[Andrej]

Then do some research.

 

Investigate.

 

Don't just plan to sit around and wait for a wagon to crop up so that everyone can consolidate on it as the DL creeps closer. That's lazy and poor play that loses Town the game - we're already behind and this setup is not configured to be helpful for us.

[Eldrick4221]

I probably would have been going Oci if you hadn't subbed in. I guess he's just a scummy townie though, cuz I defeinitely get a town vibe from you.