[Advanced] The Usual Suspects Mafia - GAME OVER - COPS WIN

[csarmi]

Okay. Hopefully see you guys later.

[Zander?]

 

 

 

Believe me, Laine's lynch all hydras thing is null. Make what you will of people supporting it.

 

Like I said, I disagree with the concept. Laine is still squarely null right now. But I want to see where she goes with it. Kiv's supporting it cause... MATH!.... eh.  As is him trying to portray a null Pral tell as a scummy. Zander charging in, agreeing with Kiv, and demanding a vote on Laine be removed is a head scratcher. I'm taking my time with him, though, cause judging by the last game we played together.... I don't speak Zanderlish. 

 

Thank you Nyn...I know Alanna's LAH is carryover from previous games and part of the signup.  Alanna hasnt done anything to ping me atp and still hasnt tbh.

 

Nyn you understand some Zanderlish!!!!

How does Laine play as mafia?

 

 

ive played one game with her as Maf and I was as well.   i found she was more cautious, worried about how her post/comments/reads were perceived and got more defensive quickly once a little pressure built up on her. 

[BFG]

I have 5 minutes before I need to get going...

 

@Sili - I currently have a bunch of nulls, a handful of people I think are town and a handful that I have at light town. There isn't anyone I think is particularly scummy, Lenlo is bottom of my nulls at this point.

 

@Csarmi - I'm not massively confident Lenlo flips mafia, but his posts contradict themselves in a way that doesn't make sense to me.

 

 

Got to run. Deadline is 5PM for me and I'll still be at work. I'm not sire if I'll make it on during lunch or not.

[alannalynn]

I'm here!! I'll keep a current page open if anyone wants to talk ^.^

[alannalynn]

Starting where I left off and stopping at the top of 95 (keeping page markers)-- I really meant to be online this morning.

 

I'm here, doing my reread.

 

@ Alanna, you don't like Kiv doing what he did for his own agenda, why does this make you think scum rather than null?

 

about Zander - Every game I'm in I try to improve and take note of what people say, my game is evolving all the time, and try different things. However you and others have told Zander over and over about his game and he never evolves it. after our last game I feel like he won't change it because when he is scum he will use it to cover himself. If he was town, wouldn't you think he would want to show it more, instead of relying on old SW Zander that everyone loved. It's a cliche and how do you justify calling him town because of it?

That's not the reason that I'm voting him. That's an annoyance and I think it's a null point on his case, but I'm voting him because of the Pral-vote issue and him using meta that he didn't have and backtracking on that because he doesn't believe in meta. It all feels very contradictory to me. ....and my explanation sounds very bland. >_>

 

Refer to... this post of Nyn's (and basically everything she's said this game, not that I'm sheeping) and to this post of mine and conversation with Shad following it on that page. That combined with the defensiveness of Mish earlier in the day is the reason he has my vote.

I'm also suspicious of Nolderp and Lenlo, so I'll be looking at those two when I get the chance

 

Re: Zander (I think Nyn asked about why I town read him so quickly too and said something along the lines as "that's stupid"): I'll refer you to the British Monarchy game. We started out strongly town reading each other like usual, but I like to consider that a testing phase, to see if he can keep up the same feel that I normally get from him. Reminder that this was also running at the same time (towards the end of?) the Belichick game, so I was also mafia with him then too. The thing is his game on d1 started slacking and I called him out on it and had to keep pushing him to explain where he wasn't explaining well enough and to be more focused in his reads. We were both town in that game and I got killed n1 by SEPH I just want to point out that just because we town read each other early doesn't mean we're not testing each other or evolving our reads of each other. That would be dumb to assume someone is town just because you want them to be. The point (I have a point?)... the point I'm trying to make is that Zander is probably town this game and though that read isn't solidified I'm very confident in it. I'm sure Zander is going to say something about "gut reads" and he's probably right. LOL

 

@Laine - I agree with your points on Lenlo. Hoping to see more explanation of his part when I finish reading the rest of the thread tomorrow but to say the least I don't like the way he's approaching me or Zeph in this situation. Seems to be going more for thread consensus while notably not looking at Kivish.

*reminder to go back to Lenlooo

 

#1842 TALYA I almost failed to realize this post was only up to page 32 because it's annoying that people are pointing out that the extent of my game play is LAH when it's really not.  Anyways, Why is ClovFG creeping down your list, Talya?

 

#1846 ZANDER This post was missing lololols but I shouldn't judge. Nice answer though. Do you agree to my statement above to Talya?

 

#1875 @NYN thanks for getting back to me, I think I explained some of my Zander read up above in response to Talya, so I hope that helps from my standpoint too. :)

 

I thought this post was going to be longer.... back to catching up.

[Sili Quirrels]

 

 

*snipped*

So reading this was fun cause the quotes are bonked. Clov only asked me when did I mention AJ before that post, not why I had him on the list.

*snipped*

-.- It was totally implied. You said “As I said before, AJ is a good lunch.” If someone says where did you mention them before, they are looking for where you explained your read, dude.

 

I disagree dear, but I digress.

 

After reading this a couple times, to read inbetween the lines, I think I get what clov is saying below.

 

 

I can't read Lenlo, like at all. Whenever I try I get static.

I'm not living him this game. The dance he's doing with key makes it seem like he's avoiding having to justify a read. Him piggybacking corys point about me after Cory had already acknowledge what I was getting at is pretty sketchy too.

 

Although that said I read Lenlo's follow-up and I can kind of see it playing out in my head. I think Lenlo seemingly playing dumb is bad, but I've seen town wrongly convicted over piggybacking but not really before.

 

Just wanted to say my 2c on this.

 

The reasons are crap.

 

Snow and Lenlo trains are crap.  Still waiting fr Clov to give me his read on AJ.  Would like to hear more from Shad and Razen.

 

Lots of conviction here. When the thread is long... after complaining about having to much too read... yet, you're convinced the trains are crap?

 

Doesn't match. -_-

 

 

Actually, mish, there is a logic (to cut down on game bloat) that is good enough to start with, since it's not mathematically worse than any other random group of players. ......................and for us, it's actually mathematically better, since we'd be looking for 2 scum out of seven hydras - a 29% chance - instead of 5 scum in 19 players (a 26% chance). Of course, that assumes an even distribution, but if we're going to look at a random pool of 8, I'd rather it be one we're in rather than one we're not Sent from my SM-G900P using Tapatalk

Weird math.

 

5 in 19 would result in an average of 1.84 mafia in any random seven slots. For you it's less likely there are two mafia in the remaining 7 hydras.

 

 

Since nobody is doing anything ... [v]Pralaya[/v].  If my memory is right, he likes to lurk as scum, and hasn't checked in yet.  Pral, where're you at?  Start laying some content down.

Reads as trying to push pralaya in retrospect. re. bold.

 

Morning Sili

Morning Nyn. You speak to me from the past. :)

[Sili Quirrels]

I have 5 minutes before I need to get going...

 

@Sili - I currently have a bunch of nulls, a handful of people I think are town and a handful that I have at light town. There isn't anyone I think is particularly scummy, Lenlo is bottom of my nulls at this point.

 

@Csarmi - I'm not massively confident Lenlo flips mafia, but his posts contradict themselves in a way that doesn't make sense to me.

 

 

Got to run. Deadline is 5PM for me and I'll still be at work. I'm not sire if I'll make it on during lunch or not.

Fair'nuff.

 

Haven't seen a compelling case for lenlo yet, so I am uncomfortable voting there right now.

 

In case I don't see it, or I fall asleep before deadline, how do his posts contradict each other?

[Sili Quirrels]

Doesn't match. -_-

 

re.

 

Should look up if he was paying attention to lenlo and snow before this.

[Sili Quirrels]

too tired -_-

[alannalynn]

too tired -_-

You and me both.

Good morning though I suppose!

[Sili Quirrels]

Okay! Sleep!

 

My sitrep is this:

I am currently evaluating Lenlo and Wombat.

 

I believe Kivam is mafia about 60% of the time for slandering pralaya on page 11 or something for not checking in (when he doesn't even use meta), misrepresenting me, and slandering Zander disproportionate to what Zander said. I don't know how people feel about the last point, but seems to me some think it wasn't obvious what Zander was saying. However, Cory basically said it at the time. I agree. Sometimes people speak in emotions.

 

 

All that said! Only a slightly positive impression of Zander for having an aggressive tone. Haven't found any particular arguments to sway me one way or another on his slot.

[Sili Quirrels]

 

too tired -_-

You and me both.

Good morning though I suppose!

 

Good morning. We are speaking in the present.

 

I did the hydra math. It's not good.

 

We probably shouldn't be hunting hydras, consequently eliminating loud player slots, to look for spew, unless hydras are more vulnerable... but I don't think hydras are more vulnerable.

[Sili Quirrels]

Laine dissapeared?

[Sili Quirrels]

Must be scared of my scumdar.

[alannalynn]

I'm here... I was putting together my post. I was about to click and then POOF!

[alannalynn]

Must be scared of my scumdar.

I ain't scrrred

[Shad_]

I'm around, trying to piece together what's going on with Lenlo.

[alannalynn]

 

 

@1888 Zander: that's pending research :( 

 

 

Didnt say scum, said you were one of the better lynchs for the day and then voted for someone I felt was worse.

 

 

 

 

DUDE. This is the point that I made earlier: You're looking for information instead of scum. Ideally, we want to lynch MAFIA, not a townie for information. like wtf man

You're missing the point then.

 

You're saying you don't have a scum read on me (your posts about me would indicate otherwise) but you're WTL me anyway for the info? At that point I don't think I had interacted with that many people to make that argument very valid.

 

 

Coming back to this post so I can answer.

 

No, I don't think Zander is struggling to express himself. I just think people are struggling to understand him.

A+

FWIW, Dice is right about Zander on skype... he's like a kid on candy

 

 

 

Lenlo - I liked Key's case on him. I think his backing for the Zeph vote is kinda garbage (the L-7 argument doesn't matter since it's hybrid hammer) and I dislike the way he's arguing semantics over clarifying his read on me - which seemingly came out of nowhere. Really don't like the 'info' angle he's applying to it either considering he's not evaluating Kivam in the same way. He's supposedly doing ISOs now, so we'll see what he comes up with but at this point I feel my vote is best served here.

Keys case was just as much semantics and made up lines as your accusing me of arguing with. Ill try and answer this though since im readin everything.

 

Im not evaluating Kivam that way, because I dont think think Kivam would be a good lynch regardless of how many people hes interacted with. If we applied this logic to everything we would just lynch the biggest posters every time and thats stupid. Kivam/Mish acted in a way I expected them to, so what alot of you seem to have had problems with I didnt.

 

As for the hybrid hammer thing... I got nothin. I missed that part of the rules. Sorry. Guess I should read those huh?

I don't understand. You would lynch AJ for information but you wouldn't lynch Kivam for the same reason. But later you admit you got mixed up with who you were talking about in your reread and it wasn't Andrej? So who? I'm lost.

 

@Lenlo, I don't understand how you can 'be wrong' on AJ like that? How can you mix up someone who did 'jack all' as someone who would provide info?

LOL Okay... yeah

 

He is probably the worst lynch possible regardless of content and hr doesn't seem to care if what he posts is popular. No blending in whatsoever (proof for that even i took notice of him despite me skimming the weekend).

CS, would you say that this is normal for Lenlo though or just a Town!Lenlo thing. I was thinking it would be odd for mafia to stick their neck out like that, but I suppose it'd depend on the player.

 

 

AJ whats the case for Lenlo? He looked quite normal to me and also i seriously doubt he can be read d1.

He seems to be making up/confusing a bunch of crap.

 

Says that me/Zander would be a good info lynch but won't commit to scum reading me. Doesn't want to apply this same logic towards Kivam even though his justification was that we had a lot of interactions ITT. Says that he mixed me up with someone else, but doesn't remember who after the connection is made that he only begins to see me as a good lynch after Cory voices some concerns. Talks like he doesn't like my body of work in one post, says he thought it was good in another.

 

Just a lot of inconsistencies and disconnects.

 

 

 

 

He doesn't like your body?

 
Everyone likes my body imo

So do you expect disconnect and confusion to be scum traits in a 100+ page d1? I would think the opposite.

Why would you think the opposite?

 

 

 

 

 

 

too tired -_-

You and me both.
Good morning though I suppose!

Good morning. We are speaking in the present.

 

I did the hydra math. It's not good.

 

We probably shouldn't be hunting hydras, consequently eliminating loud player slots, to look for spew, unless hydras are more vulnerable... but I don't think hydras are more vulnerable.

Present: glad you noticed!

 

I don't care.

 

I'm a tad bit bothered by people bringing up LAH like I'm a crazy person: I'm NOT solely hunting hydras. I'm narrowing focus. I'm also looking at the bigger game, too. I think a mafia hydra flip would be very useful information for the game, fwiw. Two people, twice the spew? (math's probably wrong there too...)

[alannalynn]

I'm around, trying to piece together what's going on with Lenlo.

SHADDD so you haven't abandoned us?

[Sili Quirrels]

Im not very good at looking for spew so i never really care about it before a flip.

[Kivam]

Laine - your argument doesn't hold.  I said I've seen Pral's scum game, I know he lurks, and therefore, if I'm going to catch him when he's scum I need content.  That's the exact opposite of saying I'd scumread him based on meta, since if I was going on meta (and assuming Pral's town meta was different) I wouldn't need content at all - I'd just say "he's lurking, therefore he's scum".  Instead, my assumption was that lurking is a null tell for Pral - which is why I need him to post content.

 

Can you explain why you think that's contradictory?

[Kivam]

 

Actually, mish, there is a logic (to cut down on game bloat) that is good enough to start with, since it's not mathematically worse than any other random group of players. ......................and for us, it's actually mathematically better, since we'd be looking for 2 scum out of seven hydras - a 29% chance - instead of 5 scum in 19 players (a 26% chance). Of course, that assumes an even distribution, but if we're going to look at a random pool of 8, I'd rather it be one we're in rather than one we're not Sent from my SM-G900P using Tapatalk

Weird math.

 

5 in 19 would result in an average of 1.84 mafia in any random seven slots. For you it's less likely there are two mafia in the remaining 7 hydras.

 

Sili - you have the math wrong.  If probability says that there are 2 mafia in every 8 slots (5/20=1/4=2/8), and you have 8 hydra slots, then probability says there are 2 scum among the 8 hydras.  Being one of those 8, I know I'm town, which leaves only 7 slots left to have those 2/8 scum, meaning 2/7 remaining.  It's the same reason you said "5 in 19" - because you are eliminating yourself from the population you are looking at, and using the number of scum in the remaining population.

 

That doesn't really have much relevance, since everyone has moved on from LAH already and the likelyhood of an even distribution is actually quite low (you're looking at standard deviations, etc.), but with back to school coming up it feels right to correct you on that math anyway

[Shad_]

 

I'm around, trying to piece together what's going on with Lenlo.

SHADDD so you haven't abandoned us?

 

I was going to spend a lot of Sunday catching up and then one of my favorite golfers pwned the PGA Championship and I got lost in a six pack.

 

>_>

 

<_<

[alannalynn]

Laine - your argument doesn't hold.  I said I've seen Pral's scum game, I know he lurks, and therefore, if I'm going to catch him when he's scum I need content.  That's the exact opposite of saying I'd scumread him based on meta, since if I was going on meta (and assuming Pral's town meta was different) I wouldn't need content at all - I'd just say "he's lurking, therefore he's scum".  Instead, my assumption was that lurking is a null tell for Pral - which is why I need him to post content.

 

Can you explain why you think that's contradictory?

My problem is that that is not how I, or others, read your OP. I read it as you basing his read off of a scum meta, as in you associate lurky Pral as scummy Pral, and not that you were prodding for content. Later realized that you have no town meta on Pralaya. Therefore, I am to assume that your meta is incomplete and you have no right calling him/or anyone else out for being lurky as either alignment when you don't have that experience with them. So it feels like you deliberately associating Pralaya as scum through a false meta.

 

Later you had a post disowning meta and you stated something about good players being consistent in any alignment. I feel like this was contradictory because A. you used an incomplete meta to associate Pral with scum, B. you basically reject that notion because meta is null in your opinion. 

[alannalynn]

I'm too tired to think.

 

And my school starts on Thursday.