Belichick - Mafia Eternal Night

[Zander?]

If Seph mixes up numbers again, can we lynch him instead? #mathgettingyoukilled

 

#TheMathsAreHard

 

Full claim: special

Now you know why I wear a hard hat

 

Hardclaim: Derp....lolololololol

 

 

Go to bed son. You've done well *nods*

 

Thanks pops!!!

[Talya]

I'm having a hard time getting my head round the Verb/Rand w/w, v/w v/w stuff that has been posted. Will have to go over that slow time.

 

Not sure what to make of Rand's story...it is very elaborate. On phones, always make sure things go through, no matter what they are, at least I do.

 

I'm going to have a look at Verb later, got some revision to get done this afternoon.

[Talya]

Before I go,

 

Rand - you have a few reads, why not explain (with posts where you can) why you think someone is Town/Null/Wolf.

 

That way we can see you thought processes. At present we are all seeing you grasping at think air, and it really doesn't help you at all.

[Verbal32]

I think it's Rand/Verb an overwhelming amount of time here.

 

Verb basically doesn't want to work with town on the merit of wifom and Rand is continuing to act as if there is no reason to be suspicious of him. Like it sort of baffles me lol. Ignoring everything and everyone calling you wolf doesn't clear you, bro.

 

Think it through.  If I admit I have a shot, then I'm getting shot that night and I might not be ready for a hero shot.  If I admit I don't have a shot, then I'm probably not getting shot by the wolves in favor of them hunting for other vigs and/or Doc....and I'm probably a PoE lynch candidate at that point.

 

Had I been playing from the start, you'd never be lynching me.  The little I've been able to play this game, however, should be reminiscent of the ME game.  I suggested caution and kept rethinking things - essentially slow-playing it 100% of the time.  I'm either misclearing somebody (which will make me sad), or you're stuck in a tunnel wanting me to be a wolf.  You've played enough with me to know my towntells.  Stop ignoring them.

 

 

 

Phase should be ending within the hour btw.

 

Please, please stay focused to my villagers out there. Don't give the wolves any relief - you hold them under water and watch them flounder. No mercy for the enemy.

 

You said essentially the same thing to me yesterday when I wasn't sure about Rand.  I eventually went back there and voted, and now you're casing the hell out of me.  Do you see the disconnect?

 

 

 

Think it's time to chill out and enjoy the ride though because I don't see Rand or Verbal flipping town under the current circumstances.  My guess is they're praying for a helping hand from hero shots at this point.

 

You played 2 games recently with me when I was a villager - I'm kinda surprised you ignored those tells and decided I was a wolf.

 

 

 

 

Rand's impending lynch is starting to look too easy

 

 

As in I'm starting to doubt the validity of Rand/Laine w/w......feels more like v/w, actually.

 

Can we get a VC/DL post pls?

 

 

I feel like Rand should die first, here, and Laine should be vigged tonight.

 

 

meh

 

 

[v]Rand[/v]

 

 

I have meetings all day, but I'll try to poke back in before noon to move if I need to for a lynch.  Just not ready to hammer yet.

 

 

i dont know about anyone else but this progression of Verbs is just off imo.  in the off chance Rand flips town and with staing he thinks Rand/Alanna is v/w yet refuses to Hammer her is a very very bad look imo.

 

Thoughts?

 

 

The 2nd and 3rd posts there are a day apart.  With AJ suggesting we stay the course, and the pages in between those posts, it isn't that difficult to imagine me changing my mind about the order in which they should die.  I even voted Rand to complete the consistency there.  The only disconnect you can see if me thinking maybe Rand is a villager and Laine is the wolf instead of both wolves....but I went back to the original thought process (again, that AJ asked me to do), and voted Rand.

 

I'm not going to repeat this again.  Pay attention to the consistency and ignore the "mind-changing", which is certainly more indicative of a villager trying to see all angles than it is a wolf going for low hanging fruit.

[Verbal32]

Question:  do you guys think Rand would stoop to the level of blaming Cloudflare of some technical glitch on why he didn't submit a kill?

 

 

He's either a wolf that used up his shot, or he's a villager who's telling the truth.  But this explanation is pretty bad, which makes me think he might be a villager telling the truth.  I'm back on the fence with him.

[Andrej]

There's only one way to find out.

 

He's L-1 so I would expect Dice or BFG to hammer sometime. I hope they will anyway.

 

Verb you essentially need to find two wolves. Who are they?

[Andrej]

And ftr, yes. If you guys are w/w it makes all the sense for him to make up some story for why he failed to kill you because a doc protection was out of the question imo.

 

You posturing and saying you think he might be town because of the outlandishness of the claim unsettles me. It's also worth noting that although Rand is essentially begging us to lynch you first he isn't even voting.

 

So?

[Andrej]

I realize I add too many adverbs to my sentences.

 

Verb you don't essentially need to find two wolves. You do.

 

And Rand wasn't essentially begging us. He was.

[Zander?]

meh..i need to think this through now.  this verb/rand thing is making me weary

[Andrej]

What about it?

[Zander?]

well heres what im thinking.  on the off chance Rand flips town is Verb more likely town or a Wolf looking for town Cred especially since he voted rand first instead of Alanna after saying Rand/Alanna was v/w.

 

 

does that make sense or am I off on this thought process.  Rands response to not shooting is making my head spin.

[Andrej]

Regardless of how Rand flips Verb is still a wolf most likely.

 

Rand = wolf then we know he was lying as an excuse not to shoot Verb.

 

Rand = town then Verb still probably a wolf because of how he handled yesterday's EOD and voted Rand over a confirmed wolf.

 

Still wanna lynch Rand first though

[Zander?]

Regardless of how Rand flips Verb is still a wolf most likely.

 

Rand = wolf then we know he was lying as an excuse not to shoot Verb.

 

Rand = town then Verb still probably a wolf because of how he handled yesterday's EOD and voted Rand over a confirmed wolf.

 

Still wanna lynch Rand first though

 

this makes sense.  kinda what i was thinking.

[Talya]

ISO on Verb, won't be quoting too much.

 

He was on leave so late to the party:

 

Thinks Shad is Stroung town, Zander needs to calm down and explain his thought processes on me - this is when he said he would ISO me

 

Shad/AJ/Thane - he will be lynched before them. Strong reads Thane after his AtE, doesn't think he would do it if Wolf.

 

 

 

 

Official Vote Count 13:

 

Verb (1/7): Rand

Laine (1/7): Dice

Hally (2/7) Thane, Pralaya

Tayla(1/7) Zander
Rand (5/7) Shad, Tayla, Aj, Hally, Yates

 

Not Voting (3/13):

BFG, Verb, Laine, 

 

 

For reference

 

 

I'd bet 2 wolves in the oranges based on wagonomics.  Wolves tend to bury votes on each other D1, or at least bury their vote on a meaningless or impossible lynch.  If I had to choose who to lynch D2 based ONLY on this quote, I'd lynch Rand.  He had a meaningless vote on D1, and in what I've read of him in my catchup, I see multiple FoSes and "intent to vote"-type posts, but I see his vote remained on me.....which was useless.  Add to that his lynch did not go through.  Wolves tend to easily nudge D1 mislynches through, but to have this stall (I don't know yet if there were other reasons for this, btw) makes me think the village might have had a wolf in their sights.

 

More to come on this theory.

 

 

 

 

He brings this post up. Doesn't hi-light the non voting players, because he is more confident, one of the wolves is on the random 1 votes. Does Alanna flipping wolf change your theory here and if so how?

 

comments on Alanna's WoT - thinks it is spoken like a wolf that commits to as few reads as possible and is happy playing off everyone else. Asked her about her comment on Wolves killing Pral to incriminate her. This pretty much summed up Alanna's play well

 

Starts doubting Alanna/Rand as w/w more like w/v What do you think is more likely now (obviously one is wolf)?

 

comes in later and laughs at a post of Rands and says Rand should be lynched and Alanna shot.

 

Says he stuck with his gut on Rand in the end. Not the best way to come in knowing that Alanna is Wolf, but it does follow his thought process about not liking Rand not being lynched day 1 and being saved by wolves.

 

Talks about Hero shooting - which he later explains

 

IRT to AJ saying that he just came in clearing towns like in SW, says it was ME he did it. This, I have to agree with Verb here, he was like this in ME game.

 

It seems the main reason that Verb is here is because of POE and his vote, I think his vote actually doesn't mean he is wolf. He was after Rand, was suspicious of Alanna, doesn't hammer Alanna, but goes with his gut, he was first onto Rand, so this makes sense, reading it all back together.

 

As to the last question about would Rand make that excuse as wolf, I really don't know, I don't know how he plays.

 

The posts look pretty towny on the whole, I think if Rand filps town, it makes Verb look better imo, from that. Reading his posts together make them feel more towny towards him, Me he did come in saying who he thought his strong town reads are.

 

I'm happy with my vote on Rand still. When Rand flips, we go from there, but he is a good bet for wolf right now.

[RandA lThor]

Regardless of how Rand flips Verb is still a wolf most likely.

 

Rand = wolf then we know he was lying as an excuse not to shoot Verb.

 

Rand = town then Verb still probably a wolf because of how he handled yesterday's EOD and voted Rand over a confirmed wolf.

 

Still wanna lynch Rand first though

Verb = town, Rand is most likely town because mafia wouldn't not shoot town for no reason

 

Verb = wolf then you can go from there, but at least only one more wolf left

 

Btw, working on the case right now

[Verbal32]

I realize I add too many adverbs to my sentences.

 

Verb you don't essentially need to find two wolves. You do.

 

And Rand wasn't essentially begging us. He was.

 

No, we do.  We as in the collective village.  Stop trying to pin this on one person.

 

 

 

Regardless of how Rand flips Verb is still a wolf most likely.

 

Rand = wolf then we know he was lying as an excuse not to shoot Verb.

 

Rand = town then Verb still probably a wolf because of how he handled yesterday's EOD and voted Rand over a confirmed wolf.

 

Still wanna lynch Rand first though

 

You know better than this, AJ.

 

If Rand is a villager, then you need to entertain the thought that I was simply wrong.  I was leaning Rand early, started wavering, and then went back to the original thought.....WHICH YOU SUGGESTED THAT I DO.  Stop ignoring that and placing blame on me.  It makes you look silly.

 

If Rand is a wolf, then it doesn't matter which I voted, right?  It means I was right early on, incorrectly wavered, and then correctly voted a wolf (even though we lynched another one).

 

 

I get that you want me to be a wolf, but that doesn't actually make me one.  Stop ignoring the signs that I'm a villager, and taking those signs and making them seem like they should be wolf tells.  It's gross.

[Verbal32]

 

Regardless of how Rand flips Verb is still a wolf most likely.

 

Rand = wolf then we know he was lying as an excuse not to shoot Verb.

 

Rand = town then Verb still probably a wolf because of how he handled yesterday's EOD and voted Rand over a confirmed wolf.

 

Still wanna lynch Rand first though

Verb = town, Rand is most likely town because mafia wouldn't not shoot town for no reason

 

Verb = wolf then you can go from there, but at least only one more wolf left

 

Btw, working on the case right now

 

 

Good luck with that.  There is no case that I'm a wolf - I won't entertain it and I'll rip it to shreds.  Take your time, though.  ;-)

[Verbal32]

I wasn't that into this game, but now I'm starting to get warmed up.  If somebody wants to really come at me, come at me.  Is my progression on the Rand/Laine situation as smooth as ice?  Hell no, because villagers don't pay attention to how it looks to others.  All I'm doing it putting in out on the thread, which is my job and something I do pay attention to.

 

I'm not contradicting myself, and I'm not showing signs of manipulation.  There are no wolf tells with me in this game.

[Verbal32]

Please nobody hammer Rand until he can come in and present his case on me.  I'm genuinely curious, because I've wavered on him recently.

 

I repeat, no hammer.

[RandA lThor]

Please nobody hammer Rand until he can come in and present his case on me.  I'm genuinely curious, because I've wavered on him recently.

 

I repeat, no hammer.

Oh um, I was actually talking about my case on Talya, AJ, and BFG.  My case on you was pretty simple, low activity combined with an apathetic voting pattern that seemed like it was just jumping on the BW and laying low.  You're starting to look better when you're active, but not to a point where you're not at the top of my scum list.

[RandA lThor]

Btw, when is dl?

[Andrej]

Rand and Verb suddenly not scum reading each other, such a shock. Am I the only one seeing the narrative unfolding ITT??

 

Seriously village - let's push this lynch through. Confirm Rand for wolf he is and then lynch the crap out of Verb next.

[BFG]

Good evening :)

[BFG]

Dice?

[BFG]

Biggest problem is I don't follow how Verb is thinking, he's appealing to his old town reads for??? But not putting any work into showing where he thinks we should be looking. This actually reminds me of Day 2 SW. I think town Verb is more open, transparent? I need to check his recent games on that though.