Belichick - Mafia Eternal Night

RandA lThor · July 9, 2015

Didn't answer all the questions:

A couple things from his catch-up, reading in reverse order:

* He says Laine is trying to turn Dice's joke vote against him and set him up as scum.

--This is pretty ridiculous. Your response to the joke vote was "Dice how is that helping at all? Do you have actual points to make?" and Dice is the one who started tunneling you, not vice-versa.

* He doesn't like AJ for explaining his own scum game to people.

--But AJ never did this. He just explained the atypical set-up of Middle Earth and its implications. And he was right, by the way. I ran into the exact problem AJ is describing when I tried to use Middle Earth to study him in Star Wars.

* He doesn't like AJ for doubting Darthe would go "derp, gg town" if everyone voted no lynch. He asks "Why didn't you vote? Were you trying to stall until mafia could think of something to do? Biggest scum read." Yet he likes me for researching the rules. Aren't AJ and I doing pretty much the same thing here? But I get town cred for it and he's scummy.

* He thinks Talya is "fence sitting" on page 9 because she doesn't have a strong read of Yates yet. Has he ever played with Yates before?

* Rand scum reads Laine almost immediately, on the grounds that :???: I guess he doesn't like that she's joking around with people who joke voted her? I don't get it. It's like he thinks the people who joke voted her are total strangers to her, and she's shady for returning the serve. But if I joke voted a stranger, shouldn't I be the one who looks a bit suspicious?

Thanks for asking me to look into him again Laine! Kind of reiterated what I was feeling last night and made it more glaringly obvious.

Vote: Rand

Too wolf to be a wolf maybe, but it feels like he drew three town names out of a hat and just went to work trying to dig up whatever dirt he could on them with little regard for anyone else. Still feeling Thane as scum, but that's more for what he hasn't done yet. Rand's catch-up is pretty terrible.

I'll have to go back and find AJ's quote, I remember something specific that made me go scummy scummy scum scum.

You got town cred for it because you actually foudn a legitimate reason it wouldn't work. AJ ADMITTED not knowing why it wouldn't work, knew there was a possibility there could be an auto town win, and didn't go for it.

Umm, a long time ago, so idk, just count it as a no.

She keeps bringing up each vote on her repeatedly, saying everyone's going to be voting her for her preferences, sounds like intentional exaggeration to gain sympathy.

K gotta go, hope that gave you guys some outlook on my view of the game, I'll do more later tonight

Andrej · July 9, 2015

[EDITED]

[EDITED]

OK and these are the last two posts, and I have absolutely nothing solid here at all, but for some reason, my scum radar was going berserk when I read these posts. I just put these here to see if anyone else has the same reaction, or can quantify/give reasons for what I'm feeling.

"I literally have a mountain of content to look through with my scum read here - but I can't legitimately come up with any sort of reasoning behind it so would someone else perhaps do it for me?"

Really dude?

Andrej · July 9, 2015

You got town cred for it because you actually foudn a legitimate reason it wouldn't work. AJ ADMITTED not knowing why it wouldn't work, knew there was a possibility there could be an auto town win, and didn't go for it.

So your point is that I'm a wolf because I prefer to play the game instead of win through a broken mechanic? I also believe there's a specific rule in the OP that states not to try to break the game, play against your wincon, etc. No offense to Yates but he sort of has a history for doing this sort of stuff and even without realizing in the moment that it wouldn't work because of the wincons my initial reaction was to put a stop to it immediately.

Tbch I would've said the same thing as either alignment. Even in a game of lying and backstabbing there is a level of integrity that should be withstood. Find an actual reason to FOS me because apparently you can't articulate one looking at my other posts.

Andrej · July 9, 2015

i'm currently trying to re-read. It takes time at work. i've said so before. Ignore that, if you want.

[v]Hallia[/v]

you're grasping., tunneling... whatever...

I'll be back in a few hours (!) when i have managed to reread while AT WORK

Tbh, I don't see Thane being this obvious as mafia (like others have mentioned). Its pretty ballsy for mafia to openly OMGUS the person that voted them, especially during D1 when there are so many other directions for a train to go. I see this as Thane striking out as town.

This is probably the weakest of all reasons out there to be town reading Thane.

Andrej · July 9, 2015

K, this is a little tinfoil, but imo at least one mafia/wolf would want to know why Yates had a scum read on someone if that person was town, because if valid enough, scum would have a reason to bw on the train all the way to lynch town, while having Yates lead it (who we also know is town), as a perfect excuse. I also believe because of this that Yates wasn't killed by the mafia, because they would have wanted to keep him alive to put the blame on for killing Hally. Anyways, this leads me to thinking one of Shad and Laine is mafia, and since I have a townread on Shad right now, and a maf read on Laine, I'm leaning towards Laine being mafia.

Really?

Like - you had it laid out in front of you that it was extremely likely that Yates killed Hallia. He said he would AND he flipped vig. Why are you going out of your way to make up other theories? You think a townie killed Yates? Who then??

Also - this logic is what you're going to use for supporting your scum read on Laine over like everything else that has been said about her?

I don't understand you, Rand. And I have a super hard time thinking this is the way a villager would think in this situation - like, are we even reading the same game?

dicetosser1 · July 9, 2015

K, this is a little tinfoil, but imo at least one mafia/wolf would want to know why Yates had a scum read on someone if that person was town, because if valid enough, scum would have a reason to bw on the train all the way to lynch town, while having Yates lead it (who we also know is town), as a perfect excuse. I also believe because of this that Yates wasn't killed by the mafia, because they would have wanted to keep him alive to put the blame on for killing Hally. Anyways, this leads me to thinking one of Shad and Laine is mafia, and since I have a townread on Shad right now, and a maf read on Laine, I'm leaning towards Laine being mafia.

I'm not appealing to emotion, I think I'm keeping quite positive
Hally? I love you. But I have a job to do in this game. And that job is to ferret out the three people I like that were unfortunate enough to draw the scum card this game. You, my sweet friend, are obviously one of those three. And we will laugh about this later during a rousing game of CAH after the game is finished but for now? You gots ta go.

Fill me in.

ok this thing got mangled somehow

Blue only a total newbie team would think this would work. Any experienced members would know yates would just stand there and go "yeah I did it I thought she was scum" Hes a pain to get lynched and almost impossible when he has a role.

Heres the thing you assume Hally was the NK Others have assumed Yates. But it could have been Pral. This speculation is fairly pointless at this point. The only thing id think sure out of it is that yates did exactly what he said he would cause thats yates and he WAS a vig.

dicetosser1 · July 9, 2015

i was a bit slow getting that posted but it seems like AJ and i are thinking along the same lines

Zander? · July 9, 2015

[EDITED]

[EDITED]

OK and these are the last two posts, and I have absolutely nothing solid here at all, but for some reason, my scum radar was going berserk when I read these posts. I just put these here to see if anyone else has the same reaction, or can quantify/give reasons for what I'm feeling.

"I literally have a mountain of content to look through with my scum read here - but I can't legitimately come up with any sort of reasoning behind it so would someone else perhaps do it for me?"

Really dude?

I want the record to show that I legit lolololololol'd in rl and that I now love AJ.

Zander? · July 9, 2015

K, this is a little tinfoil, but imo at least one mafia/wolf would want to know why Yates had a scum read on someone if that person was town, because if valid enough, scum would have a reason to bw on the train all the way to lynch town, while having Yates lead it (who we also know is town), as a perfect excuse. I also believe because of this that Yates wasn't killed by the mafia, because they would have wanted to keep him alive to put the blame on for killing Hally. Anyways, this leads me to thinking one of Shad and Laine is mafia, and since I have a townread on Shad right now, and a maf read on Laine, I'm leaning towards Laine being mafia.

Really?

Like - you had it laid out in front of you that it was extremely likely that Yates killed Hallia. He said he would AND he flipped vig. Why are you going out of your way to make up other theories? You think a townie killed Yates? Who then??

Also - this logic is what you're going to use for supporting your scum read on Laine over like everything else that has been said about her?

I don't understand you, Rand. And I have a super hard time thinking this is the way a villager would think in this situation - like, are we even reading the same game?

maybe im seeing this has someone who is just struglling or having an off game atp. Aj thoughts on Rand being TWTBAW?

Shad_ · July 9, 2015

I remember flipping out in DT when Eldrick started making awkward reads like these during the final day phase of Star Wars, because he was painting such a huge target on himself that I thought it would suck all of the attention back off of Yates. I think at this point we have to stop asking whether Rand's thought process makes sense and ask instead whether his conclusions push a scum agenda. (Pretty sure they do but I'm going to give it a second read.) And we have to look at his interplay with Laine especially.

If Rand and Laine are w/w, we are in great shape. If they are v/v, we are totally lost. I don't even want to humor v/v here because I'd like to think 64 pages have gotten us somewhere. I'm not completely ruling out w/v yet, and I don't want to all in on Rand tonight until we've sorted it out. We need to lynch with the objective of best possible chance to eliminate a scum vig shot. If we end up resolving on w/w, we lynch Laine, both because Rand would have been more likely to shoot between the two of them (he was likely to get lynched today) and because Rand argued that he wasn't around during night phase. (If w/w the only plausible reason I see for him to say this is because I was right about Laine still having an NK and his being burnt.)

Town with me here?

And now to dig in to this mess.

Andrej · July 9, 2015

i was a bit slow getting that posted but it seems like AJ and i are thinking along the same lines

Good to see.

Also something nobody, including myself, has seemed to consider is that it could've easily been Pral who killed Hallia as well. He was scum reading her and did flip Vig - Yates was just way more vocal about it. I might cry/laugh a little if post game it turns out they both shot her N1

Andrej · July 9, 2015

maybe im seeing this has someone who is just struglling or having an off game atp. Aj thoughts on Rand being TWTBAW?

Tbh I hate prescribing to that sort of logic. Giving someone a pass because they don't make sense can bite you in the backside big time, especially later if they happen to just be a WOAT villager and now you're suddenly out of mislynches.

Keep in mind wolves have to kill all townies to win, not just gain parity as per usual. We can afford to miss a time or two in order to remove questions marks.

Shad_ · July 9, 2015

Either way Hallia was like 95% a town vig shot, and chances of Pral shooting Yates are slim to none imo so we're looking at probably 2/4 scum shots used unless a town is refusing to claim the Pral kill. (That's hurting not helping if you are.)

Shad_ · July 9, 2015

maybe im seeing this has someone who is just struglling or having an off game atp. Aj thoughts on Rand being TWTBAW?

Tbh I hate prescribing to that sort of logic. Giving someone a pass because they don't make sense can bite you in the backside big time, especially later if they happen to just be a WOAT villager and now you're suddenly out of mislynches.

Keep in mind wolves have to kill all townies to win, not just gain parity as per usual. We can afford to miss a time or two in order to remove questions marks.

If we hit an even number scenario like 4 players 2 scum and all vig shots are spent the game is a draw unless a town player does something really, really, really derpy.

Because town can't kill all wolves at that point. And wolves can only kill all town if a town player is dumb enough to vote somebody.

Shad_ · July 9, 2015

"In the event of a draw wolves win by default."

Andrej · July 9, 2015

Sadly true.

Fwiw if it becomes Laine for the lynch today I don't really mind that much. Whatever way we're gonna go needs to be decided soon though. DL is tomorrow morning

Shad_ · July 9, 2015

Scum probably have two vigs left. We mislynch today. Their shots hit home. 7 players 3 scum, mislynch and no vig shots left we lose. Just saying. We can affort to miss "a time", dunno about two. Let's get it right now, shall we?

Andrej · July 9, 2015

That said I still think Rand probably needs to die at some point. Even if Laine flips wolf I don't think that'll clear him. His D1 case was a bit of a stretch and could indicate prior knowledge of her alignment where others missed it and his D2 stuff is sort of incredible in the sense that he's almost scum reading her for the wrong reasons.

Andrej · July 9, 2015

Either way Hallia was like 95% a town vig shot, and chances of Pral shooting Yates are slim to none imo so we're looking at probably 2/4 scum shots used unless a town is refusing to claim the Pral kill. (That's hurting not helping if you are.)

Agreed.

Zander? · July 9, 2015

When is DL cause theres NO WAY were going No Lynch today.

Andrej · July 9, 2015

When is DL cause theres NO WAY were going No Lynch today.

I think around 12pm EST tomorrow

Shad_ · July 9, 2015

Official Vote Count 13:

Laine (1/7): Dice, [Rand]

Hally (2/7) Thane, Pralaya

Tayla (1/7) Zander

Rand (5/7) Shad, Tayla, Aj, Hally, Yates

Not Voting (3/13):

BFG, Verb, Laine,

Simplifying my color scheme for this. Deal with it.

BFG read Rand scum, didn't vote.

Laine read Rand null actually, didn't vote, some quotes coming on that

Zander had a town lean on him

Dice, Thane, and obviously Verb didn't comment unless crtl+F in ISO has failed me.

Zander? · July 9, 2015

This is jumping ahead a bit but if w/w Rand was more likely to shoot last night because he was more likely to get lynched today.
That is jumping ahead, I'm very sure Rand is mafia, but I'm town and not a vig.

Are you suggesting something or is this just worded funny?

Alanna things are starting to look really bad on you now. Are you claiming VT or doc. I teetering on you atp. your answer may determine your fate imo.

thoughts on Alanna's post here? Unless everyone decides to follow me on Talya and we really kill a wolf for sure. I gotta decide between Rand and Alanna. This post of hers is causing me some real concerns.

Shad_ · July 9, 2015

No lynch probably means either Rand is scum or Talya and/or AJ are scum. I don't see all 3 scum avoiding a super easy and excusable mislynch. I don't think Talya or AJ are scum, so the maths say Rand is before I even look at his posts.

Shad_ · July 9, 2015

This is jumping ahead a bit but if w/w Rand was more likely to shoot last night because he was more likely to get lynched today.
That is jumping ahead, I'm very sure Rand is mafia, but I'm town and not a vig.

Are you suggesting something or is this just worded funny?

Alanna things are starting to look really bad on you now. Are you claiming VT or doc. I teetering on you atp. your answer may determine your fate imo.

thoughts on Alanna's post here? Unless everyone decides to follow me on Talya and we really kill a wolf for sure. I gotta decide between Rand and Alanna. This post of hers is causing me some real concerns.

Thoughts? I am looking forward to her answer.

Belichick - Mafia Eternal Night

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