House of Cards

[Cory Caboose]

I'd move them to blue*

[Cory Caboose]

If I had a dayvig I'd cap Wombat right now

 

For my own amusement, potentially

[Clovdyx]

I'm not sure I buy her explanation of that.  

 

 

Dammit Clov listen this time ok!

By the red I was saying yes he said he peeked her, but he wasn't the only one. That's it, plain and simple.

 

 

Like, it kinda sort of fits, if she thought my entire argument was related to the fact Darthe peeked Tress, specifically - rather than just Darthe having a presumably correct peek on unnamed player third from left.  But even with that assumption, I don't see how she's in a position to say whether or not that's what got him shot as town.

[Clovdyx]

Chick bolted.  

[Clovdyx]

(That was mostly in jest.  I just like two person references)

[Cory Caboose]

Did you like my "Give me my rope" from d1?

I figure that was a one-time only free villager pass and I decided to spend it, so I hope you are actually a villager lol

[Clovdyx]

Yeah, it gave me a nice laugh.  Copyright infringement kinda wolfy though....

[Andrej]

I have probably been very wrong for the majority of this game.

[WWWwombat]

@ Wombat - Ok ta. What is DADV? I get that it stands for Dead Air Dead Villager

sticky the acronym list!

but what does it mean, and if it's not obvious once you understand the meaning, how does it apply to to the votes by Verb and AJ?

 

 

It doesn't apply 100% but I was saying I thought they may have locked their votes in early on a townie and then jetted.  But that was mainly just spitballing alternatives to my primary theory which got shot down by the Sooh flip.

[WWWwombat]

 

 

Anyways, I'm asking because it just seemed strange to me that you would list your peek in green and then reveal it later, and it HAPPENED to be the person that Darthe peeked. I couldn't help but read it as a possible situation where you had to go check who his death spewed town and then use that person as your own peek.

 

Especially considering she was presumably null WITHOUT the peek factoring in.

Disregard the last. I'm too tired to figure out what you're getting at with the bold but I feel it might be important. Noting it for later.

First, his death doesn't spew anyone as town. Unless I read his flip wrong it said VT. That means he was providing cover and guessed at a peek. Esp since he did it practically at the start is the game.

 

Sorry but reading that again just got to me. Honestly not sure why you're pushing this angle.

 

 

Pretty sure we already went over SHC a couple times.  Basically, the mafia is unlikely to kill someone who posted an inaccurate peek for obvious reasons.

[WWWwombat]

If I had a dayvig I'd cap Wombat right now

 

For my own amusement, potentially

 

Wouldn't be too amusing unless you enjoy dead townies.

[Andrej]

Wombat earlier you said that you have me, Dice and Cass as your top 3 suspects but that we were all fluid.

 

Could you explain why?

[Clovdyx]

I have probably been very wrong for the majority of this game.

 

???

[Kaylee]

I'm not sure I buy her explanation of that.

 

 

 

 

Dammit Clov listen this time ok!

By the red I was saying yes he said he peeked her, but he wasn't the only one. That's it, plain and simple.

 

Like, it kinda sort of fits, if she thought my entire argument was related to the fact Darthe peeked Tress, specifically - rather than just Darthe having a presumably correct peek on unnamed player third from left. But even with that assumption, I don't see how she's in a position to say whether or not that's what got him shot as town.

I never said anything about what got him shot. Where did you get that?

[Kaylee]

Chick bolted.

No i had family over. I actually have a RL.

[Kaylee]

Chick bolted.

Also I'm a human, please don't call me that as I hate it.

[Kaylee]

 

 

 

 

Anyways, I'm asking because it just seemed strange to me that you would list your peek in green and then reveal it later, and it HAPPENED to be the person that Darthe peeked. I couldn't help but read it as a possible situation where you had to go check who his death spewed town and then use that person as your own peek.

 

Especially considering she was presumably null WITHOUT the peek factoring in.

Disregard the last. I'm too tired to figure out what you're getting at with the bold but I feel it might be important. Noting it for later.

First, his death doesn't spew anyone as town. Unless I read his flip wrong it said VT. That means he was providing cover and guessed at a peek. Esp since he did it practically at the start is the game.

 

Sorry but reading that again just got to me. Honestly not sure why you're pushing this angle.

Pretty sure we already went over SHC a couple times. Basically, the mafia is unlikely to kill someone who posted an inaccurate peek for obvious reasons.

Dammit people read what i'm saying.

 

I meant wasn't sure why he was pushing the fact that I help my peek originally then didn't. Explained why I didn't and why I was going to... back at D1 in fact so had nothing to do with who was killed or why.

 

I get what you're saying about why he was killed.

[WWWwombat]

Wombat earlier you said that you have me, Dice and Cass as your top 3 suspects but that we were all fluid.

 

Could you explain why?

 

My town reads are a lot stronger than my scum reads and Sooh flipping town muddled things a bit too.  None of you are even close to "lock wolf" territory imo (not that I ever actually lock reads without mod confirmation).  Dice hasn't posted that much, so he could easily redeem himself, and both you and Cass have said some things that have made me think twice.  Combine that with some reasonable suspicion of my nulls and town leans, and I don't have an entirely clear picture of the scum team, but I do feel like I'm a flip from being able to break things open.  Any headway I can make before then could prove pivotal.

[WWWwombat]

Anyway, night.

[Andrej]

Okay Nyn, like I promised. I should've probably reread the entire ISO you did before I did this one, but whatever.

 

These are the posts from Verb that I liked as D1 went along and why I picked him to be my peek. I was trying to feel things out for myself and it seemed we might be on the same page regarding some players.

 

 

 

 

 

Wombat townie.

 

My list is now (not in order save me/Tress)

Darthe

Tress

Clov

Cory

Kaylee

Wombat

Verbal (forgot him last list I think)

 

Leelou

AJ

 

Nyn/Hally

Sooh

 

I like your list, but I'm not sure I agree on Wombat as town yet.  I thought I had a couple of his quotes in my MQ list, but I guess not.  I'll go dig for them.

 

I liked the direction Verb was moving in towards Wombat. I was finding him questionable at the time, and still somewhat do.

 

Pre-publishing edit: I had Verb's WOT addressing Wombat's progression on Kaylee quoted but apparently I hit the max when I previewed the post so now I am taking it out.

 

Let me state this another way:  I don't care how I treated any playstyle shift with you in another game.  I only care about how I'm trying to read you in this game.  You made a post about changing things up.

 

If I ignore that post, I'd say I'm a little suspicious of you thus far.  You're not trying to lead the town, and you look to be slightly pocketing my villa peek.  If I'm the Seer, this means it should make sense that I'm suspicious of you.  If I'm vanilla, then I'd be slightly less suspicious, so maybe yellow-ish.  If I'm a wolf, then I'm in trouble because I've provided fake cover on Darthe and am not choosing to take the easy path of townreading you and moving on.  Regardless of which of the 3 are true, I should become pretty obvious one way or the other pretty soon.

 

If I take that post into account, I can't really say the above because it could easily be you stepping back on purpose like you said.  So it leaves me unable to have a read on you until I can come to grips with this supposed playstyle change.  Hope that made sense.

 

I thought this was a pretty good response to Cory in their exchange. Again - similar wariness towards the same players made me feel decent about Verb.

 

My peek was Verb btw.

 

 

 

 

Flying V

 

 

 

 

You can see the timestamp of my peek. Giving Verb's post a cursory glance and seeing we were saying / seeing similar things made me feel good enough about naming him as my N0 peek. After that I sort of stopped paying attention to his posts because I wanted to play as if I knew he was town and progress from there.

 

 

It'll be funny if later after me telling people to hold off on their seer cover for better peeks I'm the one who ended up fake peeking a wolf.

 

These are the posts liked / didn't like afterwards. 

 

 

 

 

 

Can you bring up some Wombat posts that made you feel that way from before his posts now?

 

I'd like to see this as well - I'm getting the opposite read from Wombat.  I have him as slight wolf lean.

 

Still maintaining his scum read on Wombat. This was one that at the time I liked.

 

 

 

So basically what you're saying is that wombat at Clov can't be read?... seems awfully simplified, but ok...

 

I am saying they are both players who keep their ranges extremely consistent and are very difficult to read accurately on d1

 

Just how it is

 

This is true, but Wombat's scum tells become apparent in the mid-game.  I've been pretty successful in identifying them recently, so my confidence level there is high.  I have him as a light wolf lean, and it'll become very clear to me by the time we're ready to make a decision one way or the other.

 

More talk about Wombat maybe being scum. This one sort of gives me pause looking at it again and it carries throughout Verb's posts to come. Wombat is definitely still in my possible scum list at this point and dropping cover I'm starting to question Verb as well. They have both sort of maintained a hazy scum read on the other but that's about it. Could mean something - maybe nothing but I think it's worth noting.

 

I'm gonna chime in on this one, too.  I'm confident in my ability to read Leelou.  In recent games, my reads and her alignment have gone like this:

 

I read her wolfy and it grows over time = she ends up being a wolf

I read her wolfy and it starts to dwindle over time = she ends up being a villager

I read her as a villager and it starts to dwindle over time = prob about 50/50 and where I'm wrong the most

I read her as a villager and it grows over time = she ends up being a villager

 

So I'm only worried about that 3rd line there.  The other times, I've been extremely accurate with her.  My misses have been in that villager-->wolf progression.  I don't have a real read on her yet, but I expect that to change soon as she said she'd be digging into the thread.  FWIW, snap read on the little content thus far is villager simply because of her defense of Dice.  She's not going to dance around seer cover and how to defend your peek and attack -- she's just going to attack and be blunt about it.  It is her style.  So initial village points for that.  More to come.

 

This post is well said at least. I think Leelou is probably town as well.

 

 

I have to run in a few min, but I plan on being available via phone for EOD.  Just in case, I'm going to place my vote now.

 

[v]Sooh[/v]

 

Did not seeing anything from Wombat or Cass to make me move them ahead of Sooh for my WTL.  Part of this is my emotional scarring from the incident in the JN game I explained, and part of it is that I really think my linking of Sooh/Cass is accurate.  I think Sooh is the more likely wolf, but I'm confident one of them is either way.

 

So this one might be important if Verb is w/w with Wombat. This is a post he made after voting Sooh to explain why he picked her over his other scum reads Wombat and Cass. The bit about Cass and Sooh being opposite alignments doesn't look good if Cass is a villager here, which I am starting to consider as a possibility. Not a huge one yet, but either way one's flip will say something about the other.

 

Best wishes to anybody going through rl stuff. :-(

I'm off work today and have a ton of stuff to do so I won't be on much until later. I'll keep up via phone.

I rolled the dice last night and stuck with my peek of Cory. I won't be giving you crap anymore now, heh.

I'm also sticking to my guns from yesterday - I thought Sooh was the wolf, but Cass was the wolf in my mind if Sooh flipped villager. I'll pull up the quotes later, but them not being on the same team was screaming out as obvious to me.

[v]Cass[/v]

 

Votes Cass toDay to remain consistent with the one or the other theory. Not a huge fan of this post for that reason. 

 

 

If you are still here, can you tell me what you think of Wombat and Clov's most recent posts?

For Dingbat, I need to read him today still. He was in my WTL yesterday, and I haven't noticed anything today to change that....but he's a subtle player so I need to read him with a more critical eye.

For Clov, seriously, he's as close to a blue I can have outside of peeking him villager. His feelings on Cory are ones I shared before today. If I'm not the Seer and never peeked Cory, then I'm light blue on Cory with a lot of tinfoil at the ready.....and I really like how Clov is interacting with him.

 

Answering Leelou about Womby/Clov. Again - keeping that distance from Wombat. Talking about having him WTL but still needs to look closer at him, etc.

 

 

Verb, why didn't you think Sooh/Cass could be V/V?

Why should I have you as town?

That's a really good question and now I'm wondering why myself. I'll need to go back to that sequence on my computer - please don't let me forget this.

 

Maybe this can offer some clarity moving forward. Sooh did flip villager and I'm considering Cass as one potentially so now I'm wondering if Verb was just linking early ~consensus scum reads for ammo to continue scum reading them later.

 

 

 

 

Dropping seer cover and looking at Verb again with an objective eye I think he could be scum - or at least probably should be considered. I'm not any more confident on him than my other potential suspects, but I need to start deciding. I felt good enough about him early on to make him my N0 peek but looking again without the bias some of his later posts leading into EOD1 and the direction he is moving in today make me question my quick read.

 

I'm going to work under the assumption that Cory is town.

 

These are the players I think ~are town.

 

AJ

Nyn

Clov

Cory

Tress

Leelou

Kaylee

 

Dice

Cass

Verbal

Wombat

 

I am going to drop all cover and claim VT in this situation. If Verb is a wolf then he and his team already know I'm not the seer so I'm not going to pretend and play from that perspective anymore.

 

My town group being that big probably means that I'm misclearing someone(s) because I would be surprised if all three wolves are in my bottom four but that is something for later and if I'm wrong on anyone in the bottom that will shed light elsewhere accordingly.

 

Dice is closer to the town group than Cass for me, but that spot is likely interchangeable depending on how both of them continue.

 

Verbal/Wombat. Could probably go either way here. I don't think this pair will be v/v in most situations but w/w could be a possibility. v/w also possible and both I am sort of mixed on which could be expected I suppose given who they are. I go back and forth on them. Verb was an early town read and Wombat scum, now it has kind of blended. Wombat's more recent posts addressing me directly make me second guess the early scum read just like Verb's later posts have me doubting my town read.

[Andrej]

 

I have probably been very wrong for the majority of this game.

 

???

 

@Clov

 

 

 

Good news boys I think we're going to win

 

Leelou*

Bewbs McGee  [Nynaeve+Hallia]

Songstress

Kaylee

Clovdyx

 

If this is legit then the POE is only between me, Wombat, Verbal, Cass, Dice for now.

 

I think I've had some players reversed in how I should've been reading them. Wombat/Dice/Cass have all been reasonably suspicious to me. I might actually list them in that order if I had to lynch them. Cory/Verb I have sort of polarized from each other from D1 and if I'm going to accept Cory as town then this slides Verb down into my potential wolves. If Nyn is sketchy on Verb then I think it's worth investigating too. I don't know if I'm ready to lynch him yet toDay over one of my other scum reads but I am definitely having to reset my view on him now that I've dropped cover. I think he has some scum equity given some of his interactions.

[Andrej]

 

Wombat earlier you said that you have me, Dice and Cass as your top 3 suspects but that we were all fluid.

 

Could you explain why?

 

My town reads are a lot stronger than my scum reads and Sooh flipping town muddled things a bit too.  None of you are even close to "lock wolf" territory imo (not that I ever actually lock reads without mod confirmation).  Dice hasn't posted that much, so he could easily redeem himself, and both you and Cass have said some things that have made me think twice.  Combine that with some reasonable suspicion of my nulls and town leans, and I don't have an entirely clear picture of the scum team, but I do feel like I'm a flip from being able to break things open.  Any headway I can make before then could prove pivotal.

 

Okay - so who are your very solid town reads?

 

Does this list still apply?

 

Wwwwombat

Kaylee

Clovdyx

Songstress

Bewbs McGee

 

Not lynching.

 

I agree on the point that Dice hasn't said much and could redeem himself - I'm willing to give him that opportunity as I think his posts today could be a glimmer of town!Dice coming out. I am a villager - I think Cass is probably ~more likely a villager than wolf so there is potential that all three of us are town. Let's pretend that is the situation.

 

Who would your suspects be?

 

The problem I am having is that I don't really see a scum team without you on it and I haven't gotten that sense yet that you're town. Taking me, Dice, Cass out of the situation leaves you with Cory, Leelou & Verb. The first two I am keeping as town for now and wouldn't consider lynching.

[Andrej]

I'm gonna [v]Wombat[/v] for now.

 

I would still consider lynching anyone in my bottom 4 but for now Wombat is my best bet. In most situations where I compare his potential alignment with other players I arrive to the outcome that he is scum most of the time.

[Andrej]

Nyn

Clov

Cory

Kaylee

Tress

Leelou

 

Dice

Cass

Verbal

Wombat

 

This is pretty much where I'm at. My bottom 4 is still muddled and connected in weird slimy ways that I need to bright light to to figure out. A wolf flip any of those four would more or less confirm a lot of other reads for me. If I'm wrong on anyone it might be Cass and maybe Verb. I think Dice could be a villager here but I want to see more before I make him green. Still pretty confident that Wombat isn't a villager in any situation though - I just simply don't feel it. If he's a villager then this game only gets harder for me.

 

Out of my town pile I have Nyn as blue for her entire game. If she's a wolf then my hat is off to her but she is safely out off my radar for a long while. Clov is next because of his spoiler post. I don't want to get angle shooty but I doubt that was fake and I have had him as a town read for some time already. I'm just going to accept Cory as a villager at this point. Kaylee seems townie to me and I don't have reason to doubt her yet. Tress is SHC and I don't see her falling under fancy play syndrome so I'm content to let her ride. I still would like more though - her input if town will be valuable. Leelou is playing on her town game from what I can see and other reasons. My tinfoil side pings because I feel like this stack might be too large for the current phase and consensus reads tend to make me nervous, but unless most of my bottom four flip villager I am okay with this progression.

[Cass]

Ok first things first, I'm here for the next few hours at most and I have no idea how effective I'll be in that time.

 

Even though I took a break I actually really couldn't sleep today my brain was that wired from trying to figure all of you out. It's fun and all  but I am, quite possibly, truly going insane trying to figure this game out. I will not be here all night.

 

Hi to anyone who's here.