Avatar The Last Airbender Town and SK wins!

[seph]

ahhh i ment to spoil that >< IT WASN'T DONE ><
anyways you guys get the drift there. lol. moving on to my mafia targets

[Thane Vakarian]

Turin, do you know how hard it is to explain gut feelings?

[Turin Turambar]

Thane it is freaking D3. There must be SOMETHING that is triggering your gut. The late feels read looks like floating along to me. I don't like it.

[Thane Vakarian]

i'd have to re-read the entire game if i'm to find something on someone... which is unlikely to happen tonight, seeing i get up at 3:30 am and i still need to get the kids ready for the night.

[Thane Vakarian]

plus, there wasn't really anything going on D2, perhaps looking at the votes would do something

[Thane Vakarian]

hmm.. don't know if it's something, but people not voting John Snow D2:

 

Sooh, John Snow, Turin, Eldrick.

 

Nolder jumped on the wagon, John obviously didn't selfvote, and i doubt another wolf would have jumped on the wagon ,just in case

[Turin Turambar]

did anyone post and not vote? I know the day went pretty fast. I was working for the entire thing.

 

Of the three I assume you find Sooh most suspicious.

[Songstress]

hmm.. don't know if it's something, but people not voting John Snow D2:

 

Sooh, John Snow, Turin, Eldrick.

 

Nolder jumped on the wagon, John obviously didn't selfvote, and i doubt another wolf would have jumped on the wagon ,just in case

 

Just in case what?  We actually believed he was cop after the cop died?

 

I expect that if the other mafia was around in the very short amount of time the day lasted, they bussed like crazy.  There was no chance Snow was NOT going down.

[Turin Turambar]

Check the timestamps.

It was a dark and stormy night. Hama was out bent on revenge. She looked for anyone from the Fire Nation to take down. It didn't matter if they could bend fire or not. It didn't matter if they were no longer a part of the killings and now peaceful or not. She found her latest target. Iroh, former general of the Fire Nation, was within her grasp. She used her dark talent, bloodbending, to force him to shove his sword into his heart.

 

AJ - Uncle Iroh, VT has been killed.

 

 

The Fire Nation was on a rampage! They desired to conquer all the Nations and rule supremely! They sought out the Avatar and all who opposed them. They sought to make examples of them....

 

Sokka was a funny member of the Southern Water Tribe. He wasn't a water bender, but he fought well and fought along side the Avatar. He was out on a shopping spree, doing his best to bled into the Fire Nation. He walked into one of the sword shops...big mistake! Members of the Fire Nation's team tasked to bring down the Avatar and his team were inside and recognized him!

 

Sokka fought his best, he thought he had them...but alas they took his life before he could inflict any deadly blow.

 

Not Bob - Sokka, Town Cop has been killed.

end of day

Official Vote Count

John Snow (6): Zander, Ithi, Tress, Thane, Seph, Nolder


Not Voting (4): Eldrick, Sooh, John Snow, Turin

With 10 alive it takes 6 to lynch.

Deadline is Tuesday May 5th at 4:30pm MST.

Countdown Timer: http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20150505T1630&p0=3862&fg1=99dbd4&fg2=80c2da&msg=End+of+D1&csz=1


THAT'S A LYNCH!

So D2 lasted all of 3 hours. I doubt that anything can be drawn from who was about to vote first. Like Tress said there is no way anyone other than Snow was going to be lynched that day.

[Turin Turambar]

 

Sorry, I saw the first line and couldn't help myself.       

 

#cheekyman

[Zander?]

for me i have turrin, tress, seph and thane as town.  so that leaves Sooh and Eldrick as my suspects.

[seph]

I was thinking thane ment before he calmed cop maybe?

[Turin Turambar]

Snow claimed cop to avoid being lynched D1. When D2 started it was known he was lying as the real cop got killed.

 

Therefore there is no way Snow not getting lynched on D2.

[Turin Turambar]

Final Vote Count

 

Ithi (1): Sooh

Seph (1): John Snow

AJ (2): Ithi, Eldrick

John Snow (4): Seph, Thane, Not Bob, Turin

Not Bob (1): Zander

 

Not Voting (1): Tress

 

 

With 12 alive it takes 7 to lynch.

 

Deadline is Thursday April 30th @ 4pm.

 

Countdown timer: http://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20150430T16&p0=3862&fg1=80c2da&fg2=99dbd4&msg=End+of+D1&csz=1

 

NO LYNCH ACHIEVED

This is the end of Day one. AJ and Nolder were on the Snow train but unvoted after he claimed. Nolder was the last one on If I recall. 

 

Tress was present and stated she would vote him if needed.

Eldrick had not posted for some time, so I dunno

Ithi was asleep.

Sooh I would guess was asleep since she is either GMT or GMT+1.

Zander I dunno.

[seph]

zander could you give us some reasons there behind your reads list?

[seph]

Ok. so reading back on the notbob "attention grabbing" train.

 

AJ votes  Notbob for seemingly no reason at the time.

AJ suggests lynching the quiet people if they won't talk.

Seph likes the idea.

AJ explains later that he voted Notbob to get people to talk/react to it. It hadn't worked.

Thane likes this idea, and throws his vote on.

Turin expresses being against lynching inactives on Day 1.

AJ mentions that nobody is being blind lynched. "The point is to rally and force them to start playing under the threat of being hung."

Seph agrees and adds his vote.

Thane mentions blind lynching is a bad idea.

 

From this I gather that Thane's reason to vote was to get Notbob to talk, as was AJ's.

I'm not sure about Seph though. He claims his reason is to get Notbob to talk, but he's also ok with lynching quiet people.

This is what got my attention the first time through, and why I felt his vote was to blind lynch Notbob. It took going back and analyzing the thread to realize it.

can you show me were I said quiet people should be lynched please? I never said I wanted to blind lynch anyone. Just realized this was here when I did a iso><

I feel like you are trying to pick up on something snow was attempting to do, as this makes no sense to me.

[Eldrick4221]

No prob, seph. Here you go.

Let's start lynching them if they're not gonna talk.

That sounds good to me. Sadly I think most of the people in the conversation have been town, maybe it is me being biased since they are the active ones.

Aj have you given any reads yet? I was trying to look but I didnt't see it.

[Eldrick4221]

Seph.... breathe in, breathe out. Now, tell me, who is wolf? i don't even want to know why. 

 

also @all: who'd you cop, if cop? again, i don't need reasons why. Just want to try and figure out how you think.

When I read this the first time around, if felt like a normal statement to me. Rereading it looking for scum in the remaining bunch of us, it also comes off as finding out how likely it is you or your teammate will be viewed.

 

I remember that a similar question was asked in the last game, when you were cop. I can't recall who asked it though. It didn't happen when we were scum together in Alanna's game IIRC.

[seph]

No prob, seph. Here you go.

Let's start lynching them if they're not gonna talk.

That sounds good to me. Sadly I think most of the people in the conversation have been town, maybe it is me being biased since they are the active ones.

Aj have you given any reads yet? I was trying to look but I didnt't see it.

I can't seem to find that post. But I do remember typing something like that. This is after the notbob situation, and I have already told my story on it quite a few times.

[Eldrick4221]

 

No prob, seph. Here you go.

Let's start lynching them if they're not gonna talk.

That sounds good to me. Sadly I think most of the people in the conversation have been town, maybe it is me being biased since they are the active ones.

Aj have you given any reads yet? I was trying to look but I didnt't see it.

I can't seem to find that post. But I do remember typing something like that. This is after the notbob situation, and I have already told my story on it quite a few times.

It's actually leading up into it, which is why it matters.

[Zander?]

zander could you give us some reasons there behind your reads list?

 

seeing as im tired and lasy tonight ill see if this helps...as ive stated....

 

 

 

Thane  /                                /Zander     /Tress             /Turrin                             /seph

 

Process

of                   Sooh/

Elimination     Eldrick

[Songstress]

Just spent a good bit going through ISOs on the dead mafia to look for connections with the living players.  I obviously left myself out of these notes, but I think this is a worthwhile exercise so I'm posting my notes here for reference, and color coding their interactions based on their stated read of the living players. I've also noted where they included each other on their reads list because I find it interesting.

 

----------

 

Snow (50 posts) - interactions with the living

 

- Tells Zander he might be in the wrong business looking for a friend in mafia

- Calls out and votes Seph for vote timing on Ithi

- Nudges Zander to back up town reads on Ithi/Turin/Tress/Seph

- Nudges Thane for "useless caseless vote" on NotBob

- Discusses lynching inactives with Turin

- Calls out Zander for super early claim

- Explains joke vote on Ithi to Turin

- States willingness to switch vote from Seph to Zander

- Points out Thane, AJ and Seph votes on NotBob, seems most suspicious of Thane for disagreeing with the other two and not unvoting

- Calls out Seph for OMGUS and hammers at it for a while

- Explains to Eldrick why claiming VT is a bad idea

- Waffles on stance on Zander's early claim, needs further looking into 

- Tries to explain a post of Turin's to Seph (meant as a joke?)

- Reads: Seph mafia, **Nolder** and Zander could vote, Eldrick/Sooh/Thane null, Turin town

- Argues with Zander on how his calling himself town on his reads list differs from Zander claiming VT

- Accuses Seph of following AJ's votes

- Makes Skyrim joke with Thane

- Cases Seph, realizes the case sucks, unvotes

- Comes back and says he thought it over and found more, revotes Seph

- Discusses no lynch if no majority rule with Eldrick

- Discusses information lynches with Seph, calls himself, Seph and AJ good for info

 

* Does not interact with Sooh at all (null read)

* Minimum interaction with Eldrick, only talks mafia theory or game rules (null read)

* Minimum interaction with Turin, discusses lynching inactives in theory and explains his joke vote on Ithi (town read)

* Very mild FOS on Thane for his part in NotBob train but leaves him as null on reads list (null read)

* Nudges Zander for not backing up town reads, FOS for early VT claim, waffles on taking a hard stance on the claim, defends himself to Zander for calling himself town on reads list (mafia lean)

* Takes a hard stance against Seph early and hammers him all day for timing of vote on Ithi, OMGUS, following AJ's votes (proven wrong). (mafia read)

 

---------

 

Nolder (71 posts) - interactions with the living

 

- Joke votes Zander for not using enough exclamation points in claiming town (obviously lying)

- Calls out Turin/Ithi interaction as distracting, notes Turin opposed to lynching inactives and suggests Turin is mafia with an inactive teammate, points out NotBob in particular as Turin not wanting to lynch him

- Calls out Thane for going with the flow and not appearing to scumhunt

- Says Seph looks like he's trying hard which is a null tell, likes the effort and wants to keep him around for a couple of days

- YOLO votes Turin

- Argues with Turin about whether or not he was trying to link Turin to NotBob and make them both out to be mafia

- Blames Turin for any misrepresentation/misunderstanding in his suggestion about linking NotBob and Turin

- Tries to laugh off Turin switching Nolder to the top of his scum list as obvscum

- Commends Eldrick for paying attention and being worried about the deadline

- Suggests Eldrick's vote on AJ instead of his top scum read Seph is either distancing or an honest attempt at compromising with the town, waffles on taking a stance on which it is.  

- States for the record he thinks Seph is town and is confused why Eldrick has him as his strongest scum read

- Answers question from Sooh that Turin's position on not lynching inactives and then picking one inactive over the others was the basis for his vote on Turin, says Turin making Nol his top scum read after his vote is blatantly scummy

- Explains ramifications of no lynch to Seph

- Reads list: Seph town, Sooh/Eldrick town lean, Zander null, Thane and **Snow** mafia lean, Turin mafia

- Explains to seph that doc will likely self protect N1, and it's not the end of the world if the cop or doc is killed N1

- Chides Seph for talking about what happens if cop/doc is killed instead of hunting for scum

- Notes @ Thane's post that he likes to kill low content players as scum to limit information for town

- Refuses to clarify who he would prefer to lynch between Thane and Snow in response to Seph's question

- Updates reads list with explanations for reads: Seph (frustrated townie), Sooh (asking good questions), Eldrick (being attentive), Zander (nothing stood out), Thane (standoffish and going with the flow), Turin (not lynching inactives, connection to Snow, OMGUS)

- Nudges Turin again, asking if nobody else sees what he sees

- Argues with Turin about the context of his lynching inactives discussion to "prove" he wasn't misrepping Turin

- Pushes Turin as scummy for voting AJ while calling Nol his #1 suspect

- Continues to argue with Turin about whether or not he misrepresented Turin's point, refuses to go over it again 

- Apologizes for misreading Turin's posts that he finds Nolder most suspicious

- Unvotes Turin and votes Thane as "next down on his list" (says he's looking for a reason to vote Snow here - previously refused to differentiate between Thane and Snow as to lynch order)

- Discusses who is around in an attempt to secure a lynch at EOD with Zander and Sooh

- Interacts with Sooh regarding divided voting, lack of strong feeling about the top lynch candidates.  

- Says he does not feel very strongly about Thane as mafia

- Responds to Eldrick that he was resigned about voting Snow because he wanted to have a clearer path going forward in the game

- Explains tinfoiling to Eldrick

- Calls Seph's argument with Ithi about her claim silly, says he disagrees with Seph's point but gets what he's saying.

 

 

* Minimum interaction with Zander - joke votes, some interaction re: availability at EOD1, never comments on his early VT claim (null read)

* Minimum interaction with Sooh - answers question clarifying reason for his vote on Turin, some interaction at EOD1 regarding availability and regarding the divided voting (town lean)

* Some interaction with Thane - FoS for going with the flow and not appearing to scumhunt, explains that he likes to kill low content players as mafia to limit information, calls Thane a mafia lean but refuses to differentiate between Thane and Snow as far as who he would prefer to vote - then votes Thane over Snow while soliciting reasons to vote Snow. (mafia lean)

* Seems to buddy Eldrick a little bit, discusses why Eldrick is voting AJ instead of his top scum lean Seph but defers to take a stance on whether this is distancing or compromising to achieve a lynch.  (town lean)

* Strongly calls out Seph as town, only chides him a little for speculating on what-ifs instead of hunting mafia, and calls his argument with Ithi about her claim silly.  Strong contrast with how Snow handled Seph. (town read)

* Goes head to head with Turin for most of D1, calling him out for his position on lynching inactives and OMGUS, tries to link Turin to Snow.  Only lets up on Turin after he starts looking suspicious to others (especially Ithi) for misinterpreting/misrepresenting his statements.  (mafia read)

 

---------

 

A few things that stuck out to me - as I recall, Nol when mafia is much more likely to tunnel on a townie.  Between that and the fact that he's coming across as pretty strongly town to me, I'm going to rule out Turin as their teammate.

 

Both Nolder and Snow had each other as a mafia lean on their reads list. This makes me think it's much less likely that the people they listed alongside each other (Zander and Thane) are also mafia, as most often mafia members will spread out their teammates on the reads list instead of grouping them together.  Also the fact that Nolder, once he dropped his tunnel on Turin, immediately voted Thane instead of Snow - while previously he'd refused to differentiate his preference - and hedged on his willingness to vote Snow, tells me that Thane is NOT their teammate.  Zander is questionable as neither of them interacted with him much, but he seems less likely to me just by virtue of Snow not being likely to put Nolder and Zander as both of his mafia leans.  I'll consider him again later if need be.

 

As compared to Nolder's tunnel on Turin, Snow was hard after Seph the whole of D1, while Nol had him as a strong town read.  Ithi's suggestion of a Kivam Gambit aside (because every time I've remotely suggested it, I was laughed at for the tinfoil - and I'm not sure how ballsy Snow and Seph would be to try that particular tactic with one another in Seph's second game ever), I don't know that Seph is experienced enough yet to fake this kind of interaction with a teammate.  Nolder's listing Seph as strong town was probably an attempt at town cred if Seph were to be mislynched, as a contrast with Snow's handling of him.

 

Neither one of them interacted much with Sooh or Eldrick, and I think those two need further review.  Snow had both of them as nulls, while Nolder listed both of them as a town lean.

 

Will ISO both of them again and look for anything telling.

[Songstress]

The more I think about it, the more I feel really good with this POE.

 

And the better I feel about Zander for coming to the same conclusion.  *waves at Cory*

[seph]

I came to the same conclusion on my iso of nolder.

Turin looks a lot better in my eyes. And I have thane as a slight town.

There are some posts he has that I really like. I will post it tomorrow as I have all of mine done.

I think sooh and Zander are my last two.

[Thane Vakarian]

I think we all seem to agree on Sooh for the moment, or am i misunderstanding something?