[Basic/Standard] A Wind in the Door Mafia - GAME OVER, TOWN WINS

[jmm]

If we lynch inside and get it right the cop lives, no mislynch happens and the scum have to do something about the cop. If they have no roleblocker then we get a follow the cop situation if we also have a doc.

 

If we lynch inside and get it wrong we will have mislynched the cop. Potential vigs get a clear target and we have an automatic lynch tomorrow. Scum can kill whoever they want.

 

If we lynch outside then scum can solve our problems by killing the real cop which is strictly better for us than the mislynch (calculate why) or they can shoot outside and we face the same situation tomorrow, probably (but not surely) with extra info.

 

+++

 

Tldr.

 

Lynching inside is good if we are really sure.

Lynching outside is good if we aren't sure and we get a good lynch proposition (right now I see none better than the number-neutral Tom lynch which appeals to me BTW).

I'm about as sure as I can be here… it's pretty darn obvious to me. 

[Yates]

What planet are we on where he hasn't been maj'd yet, let alone - and this is worse - where anyone is puzzling over what to do here? He's a wolf, he will always flip wolf, his claim is never real, and salami is completely absurd.

Let's say I believe you [and all signs point to you being legit]. And we lynch Sili and he flips scum [90% from my pov].

 

What happens tonight? You get targeted by scum, right? You don't know if we can protect you or not. You are assuming we're an Angel but that's not what I claimed, is it? We could be fully telling the truth in our claim and still be VT. Plus you know we let Cory die so I'm not good at my job if we *are* an Angel/Doc/whatever protective role. So you shouldn't have a ton of confidence in us.

 

Or maybe we just have a limited number of shots and want to buy you as much time as possible...

 

What buys you the most time? In my estimation, forcing Sili to maintain his ruse. How can Sili maintain his ruse if you get killed tonight and flip cop? He can't... So what does that mean for you? It means you get an extra night [at least] to do more investigations. Also, if you get an inno tonight, it means our choice for protection tomorrow [assuming we are a limited shot protective role of some type] is made for us. Clearly, we protect the inno since that's the target scum have to get rid of.

 

In theory, letting Sili live through today and tomorrow is optimal for protections and investigations, imo. Csarmi is totally right on this. What's the down side? It's not like they get an extra kill tonight. Also, don't rule out the possibility of a Town vig outflanking scum and taking care of business tonight. Just saying. That would pretty much be ideal.

[Sili Quirrels]

What do you think of Csarmi's proposal to let you both live so we don't accidentally mislynch the cop?

 

Only down side is neither one of you will be protected tonight. Probably.

I don't like it.  It means you're keeping sleeper's vote on the board and giving scum more time to prune the roster.  Not killing one of us today risks not killing scum twice.

[Yates]

Not killing one of us today risks not killing scum twice.

FTR, I'd lynch you before Hoya. Does that change your opinion at all?

[Sili Quirrels]

Barring some weird role mechanics, not at bloody all. Even if you lynch me you'll have sleeper's spew.

 

This should be an obvious decision.

[Yates]

Even if you lynch me you'll have sleeper's spew.

Who has he spewed, iyo?

[Sleeper Service]

I mean, okay, this is why I asked you to clarify your angel role in the first place (and because if you told us that you could save me, and then we lynched sili, and then I STILL DIED, you'd just be outed).

 

If you want to keep him alive fine, I guess, but that does mean we should probably just lynch Tom so we don't mislynch and accelerate the game. We don't need that.

 

In other words, leaving him alive for a day and MISLYNCHING some random villager is the WOAT way to manage this. We know Tom isn't that, or at least shouldn't be, and I think he has significant wolf equity anyway.

[monstrman]

Tom's a good choice

 

But I like my yolo team.

[Tommyrod]

(Still not a good lynch)

[Tommyrod]

Some of the stuff posted in this thread overnight made me dry heave. You guys can't all be wolves, JFC.

[monstrman]

I sizaid I like my yolo team tom

[csarmi]

Hoya.

 

A basic game like this is almost guaranteed to have a protective role. For the sake of argument you may assume that if Sili flips scum you will be protected tonight. Even if there is no angel type role scum can't be sure of that so they're unlikely to try and kill you.

[csarmi]

Also, there are usually countermeasures to that. If Yates claimed doc, Sili got lynched, flipped mafia and you died tonight then the most likely conclusion is that he got roleblocked.

[Hallia]

These are the reasons I have a hydra, oyyyy.

 

 

Catching up.

[Niniel]

I read some of the posts really late last night so I totally missed the cc. When was it? And since I can´t remember anything right now, why did Sleeper claim?

 

jmm/sili/lenlo?

 

Could be.

 

If we lynch neither, mafia is in a bind. They can't kill the true cop cause that shows us the way. If they have no RB they can't even block them.

Their NK is gonna be much harder to get through anyway cause doc has two fewer targets to protect from.

It is only a problem if we mislynch... But we do know of a lynch that is neutral at worst so.

 

 

Like, I don't know. Maybe it's related to sleep's pr? Could be if I'm lynched something bad happens, so he pushed it and claiming cop must have been a last resort.

 

This is a basic game. 

 

 

kay, i'm charles wallace. don't mislynch me please.
 
 
But no, for reals, i'm actually mags. sleeps just preemptively claimed and i have no chance to cc him without it looking awkward.

So, what you want us to believe is that Sleeper fake claimed Cop [your actual role] AND just happened to know your character name. Yes?

Also, why did you investigate Tina?

 

 

Don´t belive this. I have never ever been a N1 view and will probably never be. I´m not sure what Sili´s cop idea is but I (and many other) often view one of the stronger/more known/experienced players first.

 

 

What planet are we on where he hasn't been maj'd yet, let alone - and this is worse - where anyone is puzzling over what to do here? He's a wolf, he will always flip wolf, his claim is never real, and salami is completely absurd.

Let's say I believe you [and all signs point to you being legit]. And we lynch Sili and he flips scum [90% from my pov].

What happens tonight? You get targeted by scum, right? You don't know if we can protect you or not. You are assuming we're an Angel but that's not what I claimed, is it? We could be fully telling the truth in our claim and still be VT. Plus you know we let Cory die so I'm not good at my job if we *are* an Angel/Doc/whatever protective role. So you shouldn't have a ton of confidence in us.

Or maybe we just have a limited number of shots and want to buy you as much time as possible...

What buys you the most time? In my estimation, forcing Sili to maintain his ruse. How can Sili maintain his ruse if you get killed tonight and flip cop? He can't... So what does that mean for you? It means you get an extra night [at least] to do more investigations. Also, if you get an inno tonight, it means our choice for protection tomorrow [assuming we are a limited shot protective role of some type] is made for us. Clearly, we protect the inno since that's the target scum have to get rid of.

In theory, letting Sili live through today and tomorrow is optimal for protections and investigations, imo. Csarmi is totally right on this. What's the down side? It's not like they get an extra kill tonight. Also, don't rule out the possibility of a Town vig outflanking scum and taking care of business tonight. Just saying. That would pretty much be ideal.

 

 

 

Quoted this post and Cs´s post above. I don´t understand. Why is it good to keep a known mafia in the game? I´ll be back later when I´ve put my daughter to bed. If someone could be so nice to let me know in which posts Sleeper and Sili claimed, I would be happy. 

[Niniel]

Agree with Cs above - basic game almost always have a doc. Not if you are playing Nolder´s games though. :D

[dicetosser1]

unvote vote no lynch

[Yates]

Why is it good to keep a known mafia in the game?

Sili's fake claim is theoretically going to keep Secret Hoya alive, that's why. Scum can't kill Hoya because if they do then they know Sili is outed and gets insta lynched.

 

Also, if we have a vig then Sili goes down tonight anyway. So we wouldn't lose a day or anything.

 

No lynch might be best bet. Now we set scum up to try killing our slot [hoping we can't self protect/aren't trying to draw the NK due to BP], outing Sili and trying to kill Hoya [hoping he isn't protected], or possibly forcing them to try shooting 3rd party that they were probably hoping to keep alive but realize they can't if we aren't willing to lynch and knowing they are about to lose leverage and any chance at his help for a scum win [assuming Tom is 3rd party and not scum].

 

Only thing we lose is wagon analysis. But frankly, that's not worth much with cop claims on the table.

 

[v]no lynch[/v]

[Tommyrod]

No lynch? Really?

[csarmi]

Lynching Tommy > no lynch in my opinion.

[Tommyrod]

Lynching Tommy > no lynch in my opinion.

 

Can you do me a solid and shut the **** up? You are an idiot.

[Tommyrod]

You should be deeply embarrassed about your play in this game.

[Yates]

No lynch? Really?

This way, worst case scenario we lose 1 townie this day phase. Best case? We save a townie, vig takes care of Sili, and we have another investigation result come day break.

 

 

The alternative is to lynch 3rd party, as Secret Hoya proposed, but I kind of like having you around. Disagree with my logic?

[csarmi]

[v]Tommy[/v]

[csarmi]

This is an OMGUSGFY vote.