Greek Mythology: Man Vs. Gods [Advanced] - GAME OVER - TOWN WINS!

[csarmi]

Also what I noted:

 

The talk about whether Hallia is town was weird.

The race talk is pointless at best, helps maffia at worst.

The characters talk is pointless at best, also, I'm really uncomfortable with it. I'm pretty sure that not being able to claim characters should also means that you should NOT speculate on other players' characters either!

[WWWwombat]

Ninja'd by a lot.

 

@Thorum: Basel claimed Titan.

 

@Ithi: Not a god, human. My story has never changed. Figured from both flavor and because I knew I was town and human, that Titans would be either mafia or third party.

 

@Berf: two have claimed Titan so far. Doesn't seem like either is roles. If mafia hunt roleless Titans all game, that just makes it that much safer for our PR's. Don't know why you keep acting like you don't see that possibility. Oh wait, I do know. Its cause you're scummeriffic!

 

Prometheus was a Titan.  Prometheus was the greatest patron of mankind in all of Greek Mythology.  You know this.  Your Titan-outing argument is disingenuous and SCUM.

[csarmi]

Can we have a votecount?

[Darthe]

If we assume Dice is teeling the truth:

 

5 people are conf town upon reveal (4 titans, Hally).

 

If Dice is lying:

 

Caught scum, possible loss of a townie as well, the whole game goes to hell in a handbasket quickly.

 

I believe Dice town and truthful here, but other options do exist. Forgive me for adding to the turmoil with this, but a clever mafia ploy would be to claim lover/oracle, tell the truth, and ride on the deaths of your whole team. Mafia could know enough to fake Oracle. This is semi-debunked by him knowing how many Titans are in game. Alternatively, if they had one mafia titan it could make sense for that player to pull this gambit. That said this is all lofty conjecture, nearly impossuble to pull off and thus I disagree with it. Those are the onlty significant mafia options worth the risk to my mind atm.

 

Are we settled on believing Dice for now?

[WWWwombat]

 

 

@Ithi: Not a god, human. My story has never changed. Figured from both flavor and because I knew I was town and human, that Titans would be either mafia or third party.

But you claimed you knew mafia was an all-god team in the early pages?

 

The titan thing Darthe 'found' is somewhere I would have done the same: knowing mafia are gods, i'd have assumed there are no titans in the game. This last quote, though...

Huh? I didn't really think there would be Titans in the game, tbh. I had no advance knowledge of them. Plus, it IS Man vs. Gods mafia after all. Once Darthe claimed however, my initial thought was that they wouldnt be town.

 

 

BS.  Your initial thought was you wanted to Prometheus-fish.

 

 

 

Since we cannot edit, a third post. My two previous posts can be ignored.

 

That's not how probabilities work. The probabilities for their being mafia are independent. If you throw twenty dice, you're unlikely to not land a three. However, if you can see nineteen of them, and neither of those is a three; that says nothing about the twentieth one.

You can't, but you said at least one of those should be maffia (or have a high chance of being maffia).

If your claim is true and one of them flips town, the other would be guaranteed to be maffia in your book (or even much higher chance to be maffia).

 

Look up Bayes' theorem if you wanna go deeper.

 

[also, A being maffia and B being maffia - they aren't independedent events. just saying]

 

 

I agree with Csarmi here.  Alignments are not independent.  Especially not given the statement you made.  Furthermore, one has to account for the bias of the person making the original statement.

[Darthe]

Can we have a votecount?

If enough people vote Des we won't need one.

 

 

 

 

 

Just a suggestion.

[WWWwombat]

[You're right about them not being 100% independent, btw. Doesn't change anything to my theory, however.]

 

Actually, it does.  There is a fixed number of mafia.  The more townies we lynch, the higher the probability mass of mafia in any given player slot.

[csarmi]

I'll try to get an unofficial VC up.

[WWWwombat]

It's only overpowered if Dice's Lover is also Town.

 

If RTE gives the answers to the questions that Dice asks in the Lovers' QT then the Mafia are being given the exact same info as Town. If anything that would give the Mafia a greater advantage as they would automatically be able to share - whereas a Town person would have to reveal their Role to be able to share.

 

This all supposes that Dice really is a Lover and Town and is not just trying the biggest scam in the world. I shall applaud him if he is because it would be brilliant. But Dice is one of life's natural mafia lurkers. I don't think he would have put himself out there unless he really really had to.

 

It would still be OP.  Setup info is usually worth way more to town than mafia.  Also, if the townie is asking the questions, the info revealed will be more pro-town.  If mafia were asking the questions, they could confirm the existence or non-existence of certain power roles making it much easier to fake claim.

 

 

If we assume Dice is teeling the truth:

 

5 people are conf town upon reveal (4 titans, Hally).

 

If Dice is lying:

 

Caught scum, possible loss of a townie as well, the whole game goes to hell in a handbasket quickly.

 

I believe Dice town and truthful here, but other options do exist. Forgive me for adding to the turmoil with this, but a clever mafia ploy would be to claim lover/oracle, tell the truth, and ride on the deaths of your whole team. Mafia could know enough to fake Oracle. This is semi-debunked by him knowing how many Titans are in game. Alternatively, if they had one mafia titan it could make sense for that player to pull this gambit. That said this is all lofty conjecture, nearly impossuble to pull off and thus I disagree with it. Those are the onlty significant mafia options worth the risk to my mind atm.

 

Are we settled on believing Dice for now?

 

I believe Dice for now.  That being said, I will be reassessing every day phase.  As always.

[csarmi]

Meh I gave up, those WoT's are killing me.

[WWWwombat]

Vote: Despot Hera

[WWWwombat]

^ Girl's name fyi

[csarmi]

UnOfficial Vote Count

 

Despo (6/9): Basel, Berf, Darthe, Cloud, Csarmi, Wombat

 

Basel (3/9): Song, Tina, Mish

 

Thorum (1/9): Mish

 

Berf (3/9): Krak, Dice, Thorum

 

Cloud (2/?): Ithi, Despo

 

Not Voting: Praya, Hallia, ?

 

With 16 alive, it takes 9 to lynch. There is no deadline yet but coming soon!

 

--------------

 

Please note that RTE had Mish voting at two playces already in his last VC. I just left it that way.

[Darthe]

Lol

[Ithillian Turambar]

It totally is a girl's name.

 

Also more frequent vote counts actually make the whole vote count thing much easier. As a lazy Mod - is much easier to work that way - even though initially it might seem to me more work.

[Ithillian Turambar]

Also a pen and paper and adjusting the VC one vote at a time is the best way to try and minimise VC errors.

 

:)

[Ithillian Turambar]

It's his birthday and he specifically asked not to be Lynched.

 

He's going to be really annoyed.

 

Everyone will have to buy him cake.

[Thorum]

Ignore if you don`t want maths...

 

4 mafia in 16.

 

Becomes 4 in 15 if a is town.

 

Or an increase by 6.666666666% of prob-mafiaIrrelevant, instead of 50%, b has at that point got a 53.3333333%chance of being mafia. Irrelevant.

[Thorum]

Btw, the 50% was based onsalamis 80%, and is just a number.

[Darthe]

Are we arguing basic math here? I don't get the whole probabilities discussion, its the underlying principle behind the entire game before you add in roles, drama, etc.

 

I'm still working on a way to quantify the standard efficiency of any given role into a modifier.. having a lot of trouble with it.

[dicetosser1]

@Ithi   I am human  I ask and get answers in my PM but i shared them in the QT after i got them.

 

I actually thought having the titans claim a decent idea. but i do see the arguments against it.

 

 

now regarding the god mafia. I was told the MAJOR greek gods were mafia. This means (by myths) Zeus Poseidon Hades and Hera  with a possible substitute of athena. This does not mean Apollo. Thorum seemed to want to discredit apollo . Add all the math speak. Add the other language stuff. Add general scumminess.;

 

unvote just in case  vote Thorum

 

 

my question about a town town lover pair came back telling me there were lovers in the game. Surprise surprise!

 

If i have missed questions aimed at me please reask them as i just read thru i lost count how many pages and may have missed some.

[WWWwombat]

Of course you are. Mafia is a very complicated game. The efficacy of a role depends quite a bit on the situation. Even the best game theorists haven't gone much beyond finding upper and lower bounds for mafia:town ratios.

 

And Thorum, you can treat the flips as independent if you want, but they aren't. Furthermore, you're completely ignoring that mafia often use similar statements to line up mislynches.

[csarmi]

which was my point entirely (lining up mislynches)

[Darthe]

My thought is that if I can compile about 200 games for a role and rate the effectiveness of it based on what it is intended to do in general play that I can eliminate the swinginess of good vs bad players, early deaths vs game winners, inventive use vs dull play and etc.

 

Then average it and put it on a scale. I'm still trying to create the scale and thankfully MS has a lot of games to pull from + predefined roles.

[WWWwombat]

Dice, stop being paranoid about your lover unless you have actual gameplay reasons to suspect her. She's probably town.