Ghost Mafia - 3 out of 33 survive - Town wins!

Nolder · May 31, 2013

So how many lynches missed does this make? 6/11?

Nolder · May 31, 2013

Nothing unusual appears on the screen.

DARTHE IS TOWN

Okay, here is what I figured out (sorry I disappeared all, had to split earlier). The town has lynches and presents do one of two things. Kill or reveal alignment. There is no middle ground and no need for other power. With this as the incentive and setup (and now confirmed by DPR's talk) it seems that we can only win by both effective lynches and effective vig shots. Here was my conclusion:

Wasting the vig shot on anything less than a use determined by majority is going to lose us this game.

I'll say it again as someone you now can be certain is confirmed town (at least for the hour).

Wasting the vig shot on anything less than a use determined by majority is going to lose us this game.

Is that clear? If you get a shot, you reveal it and it gets used as an instalynch by the town. I leave it to the individual to choose what level of majority is needed (based on time left etc), and if they listen or not but this is the only way to get ahead and thus it makes the most sense.

Beyond this, I think that the peace train (while a bad vig shot) is contrived and I choose to unvote vote cloud.

Okay, here is what I figured out (sorry I disappeared all, had to split earlier). The town has lynches and presents do one of two things. Kill or reveal alignment. There is no middle ground and no need for other power. With this as the incentive and setup (and now confirmed by DPR's talk) it seems that we can only win by both effective lynches and effective vig shots. Here was my conclusion:

Wasting the vig shot on anything less than a use determined by majority is going to lose us this game.

I'll say it again as someone you now can be certain is confirmed town (at least for the hour).

Wasting the vig shot on anything less than a use determined by majority is going to lose us this game.

Is that clear? If you get a shot, you reveal it and it gets used as an instalynch by the town. I leave it to the individual to choose what level of majority is needed (based on time left etc), and if they listen or not but this is the only way to get ahead and thus it makes the most sense.

Beyond this, I think that the peace train (while a bad vig shot) is contrived and I choose to unvote vote cloud.

Darthe, whether you are town or not I completely disagree. We don't know how the scum kill mechanic works. When, during the hour, do they have to kill? Can they do it anytime? If so, a town vig revealing means the town vig will be killed.

Look, the vig shots seem to be our only way of getting ahead. I understand that mafia may do this is we are onto them, but more likely they will want the extra kill and try to use it. Past that, you're absolutely right that we don't know. So basing an argument on things out of our control seems counterproductive.

Jesus those votes are happening quick. I don't mean to derail here but I just caught up and it seems that EP is being voted because he was viewed. I don't like that framework. It is natural that his play would reflect a change, as he did change when he became confirmed. Am I missing something?

1. Peace

2. bgrishinko - TOWN. KILLED 10:00

3. Verbal - TOWN. KILLED 12:00

4. Lily - TOWN. KILLED 9:00

5. Dap (dapianoplay3r)

6. Tina - TOWN. KILLED 10:00

7. Ishy (replaced by Despo) - TOWN. KILLED 12:00

8. Mish

9. Kronos (Wolfbrotherkronos)

10. Tress (Songstress)

11. Tigy

12. Basel

13. Hallia

14. Vam - TOWN. LYNCHED 9:00

15. RTE (Release The Evil)

16. Ithi - POSSESSED. LYNCHED 11:00

17. Cloud

18. Turin - TOWN. KILLED 8:00

19. Darthe

20. Rand

21. Kaylee

22. EP (Eternal Pheonix)

23. Nolder

24. Berf (Ineed4berfs)

25. Talya - TOWN. KILLED 11:00

26. TGlems

27. Sakaea

28. NotBob - POSSESSED. LYNCHED 10:00

29. Red - TOWN. KILLED 10:00

30. Crusher

31. Ape (John McClane)

32. Leelou

33. Wombat - TOWN. KILLED 11:00

Okay, so we currently have 21 players alive. Of them DPR says four are possessed. I have been reading back a bit, and while noting inconsistent or scummy play is difficult in this case I think that we have had ample time to note those who have been long standing mafia. While we can't be certain which order possessions have happened in I feel that it is a safe bet to assume that everyone would be on their A game during a DPR game and thus I am drawn to particularly popular players. If I had to single a few out I would say that Peace, Dap, Tress, Myself, EP, Nol, Kae, Crush, Ape, and Leelou are in that group. Alternatively, TG, Berf, Cloud, RTE, Hally, Tig, and Kronos are all relatively new. Since we are assuming that the mafia will be on their "A" game however, we need to consider that neither group would be particularly salient, the mafia choosing to select members from each group. Thus, let us examine the two deceased and those killed so far. Ithi, perhaps one of the most well known on DM, and NotBob, one of the older well known players. Which leaves those in the other categories and a total of six recruits. Now, my prediction here is that the mafia will slant towards this group, targeting mainly those players who are considered good and popular over others with the occasional good newbie to throw people off. I am assuming that those who weren't mentioned and those who are in the new category are less likely to be recruited.and so now intend to go back and look specifically at the group of experienced players, keeping in mind those who have been viewed and that predictions should be offset with a cap of 2 at most. I'll chose the two with the best cases and post those. However, in such a quick paced game if someone could find the most suspect unmentioned and most suspect new player that would be grand. Thoughts?

If my memory serves, the only time we haven't seen an increase in the number of possessed is when we lynched one, and since that should be a decrease, we've always seen an increase.

I forgot who said this, but I feel like it is even more important to emphasize this now.

If you get a kill, do not use it until the majority of the town decides who to use it against. We will ensure that you get to use it in the time period provided. If there is a FLIR view, we will first use the kill, and not waste a lynch. We will only use lynches when there are no kills left for us as town to control. That way, instead of having hit and miss kills, we basically just have more lynches for town to use, which makes the game balanced.

I do love being quoted.

Dap dying brings tress to only 3 votes, looks like obvious frame of her, or wisdom of if she'd kill one of her voters.

Darte, mish, nolder, or RTE is my list

I see that you're still boring as ever. Love how I was on your list as a top contender, viewed town and went off it for the whole 48 hours, and then went right back on your list. Do you have anything else to add?

I'm still here, I post when I can you know?

It's actually just been a bare to keep up with all of the other games I have going on but I am trying when i have time.

Brilliant, lol... now Nolder, Darthe and Hallia next!!!

We've already seen that people that were FLIR viewed have been converted after, and the rest are dead apparently, except Nolder.

Actually, we have not seen that. Nolder, Rand and Darthe are still alive and were viewed as town. EP is the only one viewed as town who has died afterward and he was still town. The others were viewed as possessed and lynched forthwith.

Gotcha - I don't understand Nolder color coding apparently. He made himself the only orange name. LOL

It was a category. I was the only one who happened to fit it who has also voted on the VCs.

Darthe also fit the category but in all the VC's that mattered he wasn't voting.

On that note that bothers me quite a bit actually

Vote Darthe

We've already seen that people that were FLIR viewed have been converted after, and the rest are dead apparently, except Nolder.

Actually, we have not seen that. Nolder, Rand and Darthe are still alive and were viewed as town. EP is the only one viewed as town who has died afterward and he was still town. The others were viewed as possessed and lynched forthwith.

Gotcha - I don't understand Nolder color coding apparently. He made himself the only orange name. LOL

It was a category. I was the only one who happened to fit it who has also voted on the VCs.

Darthe also fit the category but in all the VC's that mattered he wasn't voting.

On that note that bothers me quite a bit actually

Vote Darthe

You, Darthe or Mish.

I'm down with this.

unvote

vote Darthe

Am I the only one that doesn't vote with those I think are mafia or is this odd?

Vote Kronos his voting on me reeks

You recognize that someone could have a busy day and come back in that time don't you?

Nolder · May 31, 2013

There you go Darthe. All your posts since the FLIR view on page 93.

For those of you mathematically challenged like me that's 10 posts in 6 RL days or in game terms 10 posts in 24 pages.

Note that at least 2 of those posts were arguing with being called out for inactivity.

You're not even trying.

John McClane · May 31, 2013

There you go Darthe. All your posts since the FLIR view on page 93.

For those of you mathematically challenged like me that's 10 posts in 6 RL days or in game terms 10 posts in 24 pages.

Note that at least 2 of those posts were arguing with being called out for inactivity.

You're not even trying.

That first post of his was the most grotesque of it all. Nevermind his inactivity, the fact that he tried to pass off basically saying that scum could be any of 17 of the 21 players alive as though it was real scum hunting and "solving" the game was pathetic.

The fact Mish "seconded" his make-believe logic was alarming as well.

I'd love to see how Darthe flips, he could be a two-fer.

Songstress · May 31, 2013

Good grief. Crazy busy day at work. This is the first chance I've had to get on my phone long enough to post, and I still have 2 hours to go.

I am working on the assumption that Wes wouldn't give a vig shot to a possessed, and that means Kronos is almost certainly still town as of this phase since he claimed responsibility for Hally's kill and the flavor for that scene was definitely a vigilante.

For the hope of consolidation,

Unvote, Vote Darthe

John McClane · May 31, 2013

This is frustrating.

Nolder · May 31, 2013

Great. We just need like 4 more votes in 30 mins right?

Yeah...........

John McClane · May 31, 2013

Great. We just need like 4 more votes in 30 mins right?

Yeah...........

Based on the time stamp of your quote, we are 7 minutes past 9:30PM... which means we already missed the deadline.

John McClane · May 31, 2013

Now its a party. :p

Current Vote Count

Tress (2) - Basel, Rand

Ape (1) - Tress

RTE (1) - Cloud

Darthe (3) - Ape, Nolder, Kronos

With 13 players, it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline in 1 hour and 30 minutes. From now.

Yeah, 1 hour and 30 minutes from 7:58 is 9:28, or 9:30 basically.

Remind me to stop signing up for games here.

Nolder · May 31, 2013

Oh. Ok.

Darthe · May 31, 2013

I'm well aware that I have not been around much. I do feel that when I arrive I am considerate of the game though, and am doing what I can to hunt scum and figure out the game.. the only real goal here. If I don't see anything relevant or if it is already said then what is the point in me chiming in to be redundant? I don't see one, especially not considering how long it takes to read and catch up.

John McClane · May 31, 2013

I'm well aware that I have not been around much. I do feel that when I arrive I am considerate of the game though, and am doing what I can to hunt scum and figure out the game.. the only real goal here. If I don't see anything relevant or if it is already said then what is the point in me chiming in to be redundant? I don't see one, especially not considering how long it takes to read and catch up.

Weighing in on if you think something is crap or helpful is not being redundant, it is part of the game. This whole post is complete crap.

DPR · May 31, 2013

4:00 am

There are 3 Possessed

With 13 players, it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline is in 48 hours.

Darthe · May 31, 2013

I'm well aware that I have not been around much. I do feel that when I arrive I am considerate of the game though, and am doing what I can to hunt scum and figure out the game.. the only real goal here. If I don't see anything relevant or if it is already said then what is the point in me chiming in to be redundant? I don't see one, especially not considering how long it takes to read and catch up.

Weighing in on if you think something is crap or helpful is not being redundant, it is part of the game. This whole post is complete crap.

I disagree. Also, GFY

RandA lThor · May 31, 2013

4:00 am

There are 3 Possessed

With 13 players, it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline is in 48 hours.

Woah. Now this is important. The number of possessed didn't go up as it was originally 4, I got RTE, and now its only 3, which means no one else has been possessed. Unless if I miscounted something somewhere or another.

WBK and I are still confirmed then, as we were town last hour. Now we can also vote without reasons of consolidation.

I am going to go with my gut again, and

vote Nolder

Nolder · May 31, 2013

I am going to go with my gut again,

THAT IS SO USEFUL. THANK YOU FOR YOUR INSIGHT. WITH PEOPLE LIKE YOU AROUND TOWN HAS THIS IN THE BAG.

No seriously though DIAF if that's all you've got to give.

I mean for the love of god you could AT LEAST have paraphrased someone else's case against me.

Nolder · May 31, 2013

4:00 am

There are 3 Possessed

With 13 players, it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline is in 48 hours.

Woah. Now this is important. The number of possessed didn't go up as it was originally 4, I got RTE, and now its only 3, which means no one else has been possessed. Unless if I miscounted something somewhere or another.

Also, thank you captain obvious but we've already ascertained that when a possessed is killed they seem to lose the opportunity to recruit.

For reference see this post.

Darthe · May 31, 2013

I am going to go with my gut again,

THAT IS SO USEFUL. THANK YOU FOR YOUR INSIGHT. WITH PEOPLE LIKE YOU AROUND TOWN HAS THIS IN THE BAG.

No seriously though DIAF if that's all you've got to give.

I mean for the love of god you could AT LEAST have paraphrased someone else's case against me.

I think I love the newer Nolder btw, keep this.

Nolder · May 31, 2013

I am going to go with my gut again,

THAT IS SO USEFUL. THANK YOU FOR YOUR INSIGHT. WITH PEOPLE LIKE YOU AROUND TOWN HAS THIS IN THE BAG.

No seriously though DIAF if that's all you've got to give.

I mean for the love of god you could AT LEAST have paraphrased someone else's case against me.

I think I love the newer Nolder btw, keep this.

I can't. It will absolutely lead to me being banned.

I'm holding myself in check right now but I'm pretty pissed and I have half a mind to go through the entire thread and call out every player who didn't really play and then ban them from any future games I run. I'm sure DPR put a lot of effort into making this game and at least some players tried to be active and play. Those people who just float around and make posts like Rand just made on page ONE HUNDRED AND SEVENTEEN are the EXACT reason mafia is dying on this website. It's damn rude and that is literally the nicest way I can put it.

RandA lThor · May 31, 2013

I am going to go with my gut again,

THAT IS SO USEFUL. THANK YOU FOR YOUR INSIGHT. WITH PEOPLE LIKE YOU AROUND TOWN HAS THIS IN THE BAG.

No seriously though DIAF if that's all you've got to give.

I mean for the love of god you could AT LEAST have paraphrased someone else's case against me.

Most recently the reasons were irregular inactivity voting, such as Tress, being an ideal recruitment target, especially because we've seen that the majority of the cleared have either died by mafia, or have been recruited by them (which we've later uncovered with their death). I never vote purely based on gut, but my gut is telling me you as well.

4:00 am

There are 3 Possessed

With 13 players, it takes 7 to lynch.

Deadline is in 48 hours.

Woah. Now this is important. The number of possessed didn't go up as it was originally 4, I got RTE, and now its only 3, which means no one else has been possessed. Unless if I miscounted something somewhere or another.

Also, thank you captain obvious but we've already ascertained that when a possessed is killed they seem to lose the opportunity to recruit.

For reference see this post.

No we haven't. As I said before, the reason the number remains stagnant when we kill a possessed is because we kill a possessed, and they recruit one, which evens out. This is the first time we have seen a decrease in the amount of possessed we have. So before you go all high and untouchable on me, go read the thread. One hundred and seventeen pages in and you can't read the thread correctly, count or do simple logic. :wink:

Songstress · May 31, 2013

No we haven't. As I said before, the reason the number remains stagnant when we kill a possessed is because we kill a possessed, and they recruit one, which evens out. This is the first time we have seen a decrease in the amount of possessed we have. So before you go all high and untouchable on me, go read the thread. One hundred and seventeen pages in and you can't read the thread correctly, count or do simple logic.

Rand has a point here. Either the scum failed to submit their recruit before the deadline, or some other mechanic is in play.

That gives us a bit more breathing room.

Assuming that the last FLIR camera is still in play, and hasn't gone poof because someone neglected to check their PMs in time to use it, who would be the most useful person to confirm of those left alive?

Nolder? Darthe? Or one of the 4 of us who have never either been checked or received an item?

Nolder · May 31, 2013

Recruitment pattern

H1: 0 Possessed

H2: 2 Possessed (+2)

H3: 3 Possessed (+1)

H4: 3 Possessed (+0)

H5: 3 Possessed (+0)

H6: 4 Possessed (+1)

H7: 4 Possessed (+0)

H8: 4 Possessed (+0)

H9: 3 Possessed (-1)

Kills

H3: Notbob

H4: Ithi

H7: Leelou

H8: RTE

I think you're right, sorry. I am in fact very bad at math I'll admit that any day. And I shouldn't have gone off on you like that but it's very frustrating when so many people aren't even playing.

Anyway I thought about it and 8 is about the number of mafia I'd put in a vanilla 33 player game, maybe one more. I think DPR might give the mafia only 8 chances to recruit and the extra person/power comes in the fact that they can pick which 8 are on their team as the game goes on picking town leaders, people who have been previously cleared via FLIR, or people who are slipping by unnoticed. You may be right that they forgot to send their recruitment in but I'll bet you they only get one more. Remember this is town vs mafia, not town vs cult.

Nolder · May 31, 2013

Also I'm updating my reference posts right now

Nolder · May 31, 2013

It's Hour 10 now right?

Songstress · May 31, 2013

8:00 = Hour 1

9:00 = Hour 2

10:00 = Hour 3

11:00 = Hour 4

12:00 = Hour 5

1:00 = Hour 6

2:00 = Hour 7

3:00 = Hour 8

4:00 = Hour 9.

Had to count.

Ghost Mafia - 3 out of 33 survive - Town wins!

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