[Mafia Game Over] Indiana Jones and the Raiders of the Lost Ark - Mafia Wins!

[dapianoplay3r]

 

 

Vote Ishy

foundvsome

[Leyrann]

I think I'll believe Roo. I mean, there would indeed not have been any use for him to fake-claim to get a random Townie who would happen to be the Cop. You're dead Ishy.

[Arez Al'Loke]

What I'm battling right now is, probability.

 

If Roo is mafia, chances are he found out that Ishy is the cop and decided to pull a wild card, 1 for 1. Seing as Roo has not said much, relating him to anyone else would be near impossible and it would be just that, 1 for 1.

 

If Ishy is mafia, he's using a gambit (by killing Talya) to net him more cred to be able to lynch the real cop should night kill fail, although this seems to be alot more risky, because it would potentially end up with two scum dead.

 

So right now it seems more plausible that Ishy is Cop, because if he isn't, we will be getting alot of information after lynching him. 

 

Vote Talya

[ReleaseTheEvil]

I'm really a bit too naive. I blame Ishy being a good player

 

Unvote.

[Leyrann]

Okay, I'm not 100% sure my last post was clear, let me rephrase it:

 

If Roo is fakeclaiming, he targeted a random townie, except if the mafia has a role cop, which is about as likely as 3 serial killers in one game. This townie happened to be the Cop then, which would be a lot of luck, because most likely we'd just see a random vanilla townie die, after which Roo was done for.

 

If Roo is not fakeclaiming, this counterclaim from Ishy is an attempt to live longer, and to either take a townie (Talya, who has caught some attention), or to clear a teammate.

 

Now, which one is more likely? The high-risk-most-likely-little-but-luckily-big-gain theory, or the high-risk-high-gain theory?

[dapianoplay3r]

unvote Vote Ishy

foundvsome

[Leyrann]

Arez, how the heck do you think Roo could find out Ishy was the Cop?

[dapianoplay3r]

We have had two janitor jobs. The mafia would know those players roles

if one was cop a gambit would be possible

[John E. Kelley]

I think I'll believe Roo. I mean, there would indeed not have been any use for him to fake-claim to get a random Townie who would happen to be the Cop. You're dead Ishy.

But the fact that he used me to call out is irrelevant. Nine times out of ten, when Roo falseclaimed, the real Cop would have called him out. The fact that I really am the Cop is just coincedence. His plan was to get the real Cop to reveal and get the Doc and Cop removed from the game.

 

And really, whether he's lying or I am is moot. The Cop will be dead tonight regardless.

[Arez Al'Loke]

Arez, how the heck do you think Roo could find out Ishy was the Cop?

 

I don't know, the fact is, we have absolutely no idea about what kind of opposition we're facing. We have NO clue what abilities they have. Ithi has already demonstrated that she has gone above and beyond the unprobable when creating this game, there might very well be some kind of investigative roll or special event that helped them find him.

[John E. Kelley]

It isn't as if the Cop would just sit there and say "Oh, Roo claimed Cop, but he didn't point the finger at me, so I'll just sit here and be quiet."

 

He just picked a name at random to get the Cop out there. The fact that he randomly picked me is just a quirk.

[Arez Al'Loke]

 

I think I'll believe Roo. I mean, there would indeed not have been any use for him to fake-claim to get a random Townie who would happen to be the Cop. You're dead Ishy.

His plan was to get the real Cop to reveal and get the Doc and Cop removed from the game.

 

And that would make alot of sense aswell, so far they haven't suffered any casulaties, sacrificing a scum for a cop is not unimaginable.

[dapianoplay3r]

We have no cop. Either way they are both ddead

[dapianoplay3r]

I meant doc. Bur we are about to lose oyr doc

[dapianoplay3r]

Cop*

Whats wrong wiyh me

[RandA lThor]

Analysis on whats happening right now.

 

Roo reveals as cop, says Ishy is guilty

 

First of all, mafia would never reveal cop out of nowhere in a random situation like this, where they could also be gaining benefits by getting mislynches and all the WIFOM that is going on already.  They have enough to play with that they don't need an extra cop claim in this situation that would just be suicidal.  And what would it gain them?  One more lynch and a cop?  Not worth it, not imo.  However, maybe they wanted to get rid of the cop, since verifying some of what is going on would be good.

 

Ishy claims cop, says Talya is guilty

 

This is horrible.  As any cop, even without doc protection, you would reveal if Talya is guilty, because if he was actually cop, and knew that Talya was guilty and Ed town, then that means that he should have told us that invaluable information.  And right after a cop claims.  More scummy reveals cannot come.  Also when we think that Talya is already mafia, this only makes me think that my theory of Talya being mafia is true and Ishy is trying to bus her for his own credit. 

 

Full analysis: I definitely think out of all of this, that Talya is mafia.  Ishy I think is mafia, and Ed I think is anti-town, but Talya I almost know for sure is mafia from all the things that are happening.  First we hear from Peace that Talya and Ed are mafia.  Then we get confirmation from RTE of a sort that Peace is town, and Basel saying that he took the ark from him, these two make me think that Peace is town.  Even if somehow the information given to him was false, here we have Ishy saying that he is the actual cop andhis viewing was a gulty Talya.  Therefore if we believe Ishy (which I don't ) we see Talya as mafia.  Also, if we trust Roo (I do) and see Ishy as mafia, it is almost a certainty that he just bussed Talya to save his own ass, because he thinks Talya is more sacrificeable (don't know if that's a word).  Therefore I think that the most certain to be mafia right now is Talya, tomorrow I would get Ishy, and then next day Ed.  However, there are a lot of aspects that we have to look at.  First of all, I think that if there is any other type of protective role that could save Roo in any way, please attempt to do so.  The problem is that they might just use the roleblocker(if they have one[theory for Len kill]) and block him instead.  So we see a conundrum here.  Also, why would Ishy bus Talya (as the most consistent theory imo) if he didn't think that he was more important than Talya, at least for one kill.  Therefore I think that if Ishy is mafia, he is more powerful than Talya.  So I think we as town should agree here, to either go for the most likely to be mafia (but possibly go in the direction they wish) or go for Ishy (who I am pretty sure is mafia and is probably more powerful, but otherwise he would be the cop).  However, lets look at what happens.

 

Peace Question: Did your information say mafia or scum or anti-town or what?  Tell me if you cannot answer this.

 

Talya flips mafia: We know she is mafia and that Peace was most likely telling the truth along with Basel and RTE.  Therefore, we can then assume that Ed most likely is scum as well, and then we can look at Ishy who was most likely bussing a teammate.  However, this buys Ishy some time which if he is mafia is what he wants, however, we do get a lot of scum, and if we have any vigs left, they can end these people as well.

 

Talya flips town: Highly unlikely, but I will be looking at Ishy and Peace here.  They will most likely be mafia, Basel and RTE aren't under anything too much since Basel just took the ark and RTE just gave information that could be interpreted both ways.  However, Ed would be a null tell again.

 

Ishy flips mafia:  We now can trust Roo, we can go back to the Peace list, and go for Talya first because Ishy was probably bussing in a weak attempt to gain influence.

 

Ishy flips town: He is the cop, and we just lost him.  However, we now know that Talya is mafia, most likely Ed, and Roo as well.  Therefore we get 3 mafia as well.

 

The only option where we definitely don't get 3 at some point is Talya flips town.  Not to mention that we can afford a mislynch today.  Both of Ishy's options give us 3 scum most likely, Ishy has also been acting scummy, not been contributing as much as he could, so in view of that, I will unvote vote Ishy

 

Note: I said town should reach a consensus unless new information is found, this is new information.  I want everyone who posts after this to vote or at least give a very strong opinion on where they stand.  We are not going to use any excuse of last minute lynch today, I want strong positions on one side or another.

[RandA lThor]

We have had two janitor jobs. The mafia would know those players roles

if one was cop a gambit would be possible

 Holy..

 

OK there is the possibility that Peace, Ed, Talya, Ishy, Roo, and others are all on one team, but I just wrote down a paragraph thinking about it, and it made nearly no sense, so the much simpler gambit would be simply Roo and Ishy.  With both of them claiming cop almost directly after each other to ensure most confusion, and Ishy getting guilty reads on people who are already under suspicion, it is actually a possibility that this is a gambit.  If either Song or Dice was cop, then they probably could have thought about a gambit like this.  However, I do not see the point of putting two people like this, maybe it is just to make the cop claim even stronger, who knows.  For right now, I say lets go after the most obvious, deal with the WIFOM when it comes.

[dapianoplay3r]

Rands getting all high and mighty.lol

 

ive gor so.much to do when i get home. Its going to take hours to go through this all. Just want to say i told you she was scmmy. I told ypu

[peacesells]

The biggest clue that Ishy is NOT the cop??????

 

He didn't vote Talya when I gave my information. If he were cop and wanted to remain hidden that would have been the perfect opportunity to vote her.

 

Instead of doing that he tries to discredit me and my play.

 

Ishy is not the cop. He did not vote Talya when given the opportunity. If he was cop he would have lept at the chance to vote her.

[Leyrann]

Really nice post Rand. My vote is already on Ishy.

[dapianoplay3r]

At end game who would lynch a claimed and verfifief cop?

It makes sense as a gambit but i dont feel ir

ishy is grasping. Hes mafia

[RandA lThor]

Rands getting all high and mighty.lol

 

ive gor so.much to do when i get home. Its going to take hours to go through this all. Just want to say i told you she was scmmy. I told ypu

 

Lol no, just trying to prevent last minute lynches. :P

[michellem]

I'm not buying it. Sorry luv.

 

Vote Ishy.

[Leyrann]

 

We have had two janitor jobs. The mafia would know those players roles

if one was cop a gambit would be possible

 Holy..

 

OK there is the possibility that Peace, Ed, Talya, Ishy, Roo, and others are all on one team, but I just wrote down a paragraph thinking about it, and it made nearly no sense, so the much simpler gambit would be simply Roo and Ishy.  With both of them claiming cop almost directly after each other to ensure most confusion, and Ishy getting guilty reads on people who are already under suspicion, it is actually a possibility that this is a gambit.  If either Song or Dice was cop, then they probably could have thought about a gambit like this.  However, I do not see the point of putting two people like this, maybe it is just to make the cop claim even stronger, who knows.  For right now, I say lets go after the most obvious, deal with the WIFOM when it comes.

 

I don't think it's likely they are both mafia... Too much risk, too little gain for a town that is only mislynching and has a bunch of misshooting Vigs...

[dapianoplay3r]

I judt find it funny that ypu of all people want stands and are posting long useful wots