[ADVANCED] Forsaken in the White Tower: Town wins!

[Tiinker]

You guys are kidding me right?

 

Peace, you say that getting a random is better than a no lynch which is definitely not true.  We have a higher chance of hitting town than scum with that which is antitown, and we don't get any info out of that lynch.

 

Secondly, you and RTE say that without the coroner of a lynch, there is nothing to go on and we go back to day 1 status giving mafia a free kill.  This is completely wrong.  There is so much information you can get from a no lynch, like the info we are getting right now.  The thing is that the people with the leading trains who are going to end up getting lynched are most likely town.  Our best hope right now is to no lynch. Someone please, do not let this go random, we are 1 away.

Do enlighten me. What information are we getting from No Lynch. A higher chance of hitting town than scum and that's anti town?? Are telling me that you're under the impression that when you're lynching someone that the probability is at least 50%?

[ReleaseTheEvil]

 

You guys are kidding me right?

 

Peace, you say that getting a random is better than a no lynch which is definitely not true.  We have a higher chance of hitting town than scum with that which is antitown, and we don't get any info out of that lynch.

 

Secondly, you and RTE say that without the coroner of a lynch, there is nothing to go on and we go back to day 1 status giving mafia a free kill.  This is completely wrong.  There is so much information you can get from a no lynch, like the info we are getting right now.  The thing is that the people with the leading trains who are going to end up getting lynched are most likely town.  Our best hope right now is to no lynch. Someone please, do not let this go random, we are 1 away.

Do enlighten me. What information are we getting from No Lynch. A higher chance of hitting town than scum and that's anti town?? Are telling me that you're under the impression that when you're lynching someone that the probability is at least 50%?

 

It's incredible how sometimes you make so much sense and other times I have no idea where you are coming from.

[Tiinker]

 

 

You guys are kidding me right?

 

Peace, you say that getting a random is better than a no lynch which is definitely not true.  We have a higher chance of hitting town than scum with that which is antitown, and we don't get any info out of that lynch.

 

Secondly, you and RTE say that without the coroner of a lynch, there is nothing to go on and we go back to day 1 status giving mafia a free kill.  This is completely wrong.  There is so much information you can get from a no lynch, like the info we are getting right now.  The thing is that the people with the leading trains who are going to end up getting lynched are most likely town.  Our best hope right now is to no lynch. Someone please, do not let this go random, we are 1 away.

Do enlighten me. What information are we getting from No Lynch. A higher chance of hitting town than scum and that's anti town?? Are telling me that you're under the impression that when you're lynching someone that the probability is at least 50%?

 

It's incredible how sometimes you make so much sense and other times I have no idea where you are coming from.

 

That's because in some cases your game sense is virtually 0.

[RandA lThor]

 

The thing is that the people with the leading trains who are going to end up getting lynched are most likely town. 

 

?????

 

There are more town than there are mafia, but what makes you feel that Len and Darthe (and maybe Peace) are likely town?

 

Firstly the claims.  As much as you don't want to admit it, all of the claims by Len and Darthe have been powerful people in the hunt for the Forsaken, with both of them contributing very largely to capturing Moghedien.  Secondly, there play after there claims has been very town, they haven't done anything scummy imo after that.  And just realized that I have been ninjad.

 

 

 

You guys are kidding me right?

 

Peace, you say that getting a random is better than a no lynch which is definitely not true.  We have a higher chance of hitting town than scum with that which is antitown, and we don't get any info out of that lynch.

 

Secondly, you and RTE say that without the coroner of a lynch, there is nothing to go on and we go back to day 1 status giving mafia a free kill.  This is completely wrong.  There is so much information you can get from a no lynch, like the info we are getting right now.  The thing is that the people with the leading trains who are going to end up getting lynched are most likely town.  Our best hope right now is to no lynch. Someone please, do not let this go random, we are 1 away.

Do enlighten me. What information are we getting from No Lynch. A higher chance of hitting town than scum and that's anti town?? Are telling me that you're under the impression that when you're lynching someone that the probability is at least 50%?

 

From the no lynch, we are getting information from the people voting for or against, probably mafia on both sides.  Also, RTE's play has been very informative, which I am sure you agree on, as has yours and Peace.  Here we are seeing the reactions of many players, some in a townie fashion, some not, and I don't get your last question. 

[ReleaseTheEvil]

Ok, so in complete honesty and humility, please do explain how day 1 claims are worth anything. Yes, you don't want to kill off someone who potentially is a townie with an important role, so you might steer clear of someone with a strong claim. But other than that I fail to see how they are useful.

[Lenlo]

Smiley, I think you can blame RTEs dis-trustfulness of claims on me. I did kinda steal a win from him and town with a fake claim in WW2.

[dapianoplay3r]

No lynch is pitiful. Since nobody wants to vote Darthe: 

 

unvote, vote: Rand

I will happily switch to a Rand or Lenlo lynch train. I'm only on the no lynch because I prefer it to random

 

To add..I'd rather go random than no lynch.  At least a random has a chance to hit scum.  I will not vote NO LYNCH. 

It also has a chance to hit the power roles. I won't do it if I can possibly avoid it

 

RTE...I don't know what to say but...wow.

 

 

Everyone..just vote me.  I'm not hammering no lynch.

I don't want to vote you. Len or Rand. Those are my other options

[RandA lThor]

OK, so obviously any claims should not be trusted with full face value and be taken to be confirmed town, especially since Basel has been known to create very strong fake claims.  However, Nynaeve and Birgitte were the two most important people in taking down Moghedien in TAR so they are most likely in this Forsaken game, and Elayne has attacked a multitude of the Black Ajah.  In addition to that, even though we are vanilla, it is most likely (from an outsiders perspective) that are claims are town.  The only claim we have seen that is really feeble is the Thom claim, however since he is a PR, we also feel uneasy about him.  A NK will give us information about a character, and will be a town death, however, that could not be prevented.  Here our lynch is most likely going to be town, and can be prevented which is what we're doing.

[peacesells]

Rand those reactions mean nothing without a result to compare them to.

[dapianoplay3r]

I forgot it was RTE you duped. Does explain some of the randomness

[ReleaseTheEvil]

Ok Rand, fair.

 

But what makes you think we are unlikely to lynch a mafia? If you believe Len and Darthe are town, come out and say that then instead of just repeating this over and over again. It also makes me wonder why you voted Len then...

[John E. Kelley]

It's all irrelevant at this point. No other majority will be reached. Letting it go random leaves us without a coroner report. Unacceptable. It's No Lynch, or nothing. Dragging it out at this point in the day is futile and pointless. Just end it already.

[Tiinker]

Going to use an incredibly simple example here. Setup of 20 people - perhaps 4 mafia maybe 5. I'd be willing to go with 4 for an advanced game since there are other factors other than just simple town and anti town. Say you've pinned down a likely mafia member and he claimed the character Egwene. This is a valuable claim. Why? Because you can guarantee that there's going to be an Egwene in this game. If no one steps up and counter claims, then you can be confident in saying the he IS Egwene. It's a silly deal not to CC since for scum trading 1 for 1 is a crap trade. Why? Because you're 15 against 5 and losing one of your members makes winning the game that much harder. The only point when CC'ing isn't necessarily ideal is when you've got a power role which is much better kept secret and even then it's debatable. By claiming, you've stuck yourself to something and that gives you much less flexibility and you therefore become easier to deal with from the perspective of your fellow players.

Mafia isn't about math but I'm using it as a simple example to demonstrate how claims can be useful. There are SO many more factors, especially in advanced games when roles are revealed and you use them in conjunctions with one another. If one person is lying then it becomes doing that sort of thing makes it easier to sniff them out unless you're in a kitchen sink game where everyone has a role and shit just gets really really messy.

TL;DR - Claims are always useful and you shouldn't ever ignore them.

[dapianoplay3r]

I've lynched people I think are town before. Sometimes it's better than random, sometimes you can see who was on that Train and get good info. I do dislike doing it though

[Songstress]

Rand those reactions mean nothing without a result to compare them to.

And if we get a random lynch, there will be no result either.

 

There isn't time and enough people around to be sure we can secure any other lynch.

[Tiinker]

Vote Lenlo for crying out loud. It's better than having this Day wasted..

[ReleaseTheEvil]

sometimes you can see who was on that Train and get good info. I do dislike doing it though

 

 I think this is important and I see this as valuable. However I'm not sure this works on Day 1, as people on a train on day 1 look different than people on a train on day 7.

 

@Tinker Thanks, I will reflect on that. Hopefully then one of them is lying about the vanilla part...

[dapianoplay3r]

We have about an hour. I think we can make it if everyone online does it

[John E. Kelley]

Vote Lenlo for crying out loud. It's better than having this Day wasted..

 

It's too late, we can't get a majority on him in an hour. There aren't enough of us around.

[dapianoplay3r]

Most of their claims are hiding something IMO. Doesn't mean they aren't town

[ReleaseTheEvil]

Vote Lenlo for crying out loud. It's better than having this Day wasted..

 

I can honestly say it is very, very unlikely I will trust Lenlo at all this game. That doesn't mean I won't follow good information on votes. But it means I will not take anything he says at face value. At all. Ever. :P

[dapianoplay3r]

There are 6 of us online. There are 5 votes on Len. It can be done

[Tiinker]

Fine.

Unvote Vote No Lynch

We still have 30 minutes but I'm going to sleep now and I don't want no coroner death when I wake up..

[Tiinker]

There are 6 of us online. There are 5 votes on Len. It can be done

 

Everyone's too adamant on their votes to have moved them. They're not going to do so now. Just a Day lost.

[peacesells]

We have 2 hours.

 

UNVOTE VOTE LENLO