Hangar 18 [BASIC GAME] Game over! Scum win. Nolder & WBK.

[Darthe]

^ I see a lot of inconsistencies in Red's play, both from her meta and in the few things she has stated.  This is why my vote is there.

[Nolder]

Red never makes too much sense to me. She's just a bulldog. Sometimes she shakes scum but more often than not she leads everyone in circles even as town.

 

I appreciate the reactions she can get from people but in all honesty I don't take her actual cases very seriously anymore. Sorry Red but quality of accusations>quantity in my book.

[Nolder]

Would like to hear from more people Des is silent so far (mod can you poke him?) and a few people like Wolfbrother and Hallia need to pick it up a little. Basically anyone below the mod needs to post more. Three people does not make a game.

[WolfbrotherKronos]

Here are my thoughts - Darthe claims that Red is on his town list...

 

 

pressure the newb or mass claim.  wtf Darthe.  why the newb over everyone else?  and option #2, you cant really be serious on the mass claim crap.

 

 

Excellent!  Red is on my town list as is Nol and Tress.  5 to go!

 

Then when Red puts the pressure on, Darth votes her.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nol - odds are a townie will get lynched D1, going ahead and voting No Lynch not only keeps our numbers equal to scum in the night, but also prevents any D1 claims from happening.

 

Disgusting.  This is the sort of logic that leads to ...and they lived happily ever after.  

 

For those of you who don't know what that is, it is the fact that probablistically each time gains advantage by offsetting the number of kills in their favor and as such the idea was proposed that it is actually beneficial for a team to not kill at some points.  When both teams do this it is a stalemate of no deaths and so the game ends, typically with the line  ...and they lived happily ever after.

 

fatalistic and extremist much?  at best we have 2 cops or a cop and doc, at worst we have 1 power role.  Mafia already has the advantage, especially if they ended up with the RBer.

 

it isn't ending in a stalemate or "living happily ever after" its limiting the eventuality of a being down two townies come D2 before a cop can view, if we have one. 

 

no lynch benefits the town and hampers the scum, you're heavy handed reaction pings.  mafia is a numbers game, the longer we keep our numbers up, the longer they have to hide and the more chance they will slip and expose themselves.  unless a scum exposes themselves, No Lynch is our smartest option for this setup.

 

 

>It is beyond rare.  I have a suggestion.  Why don't you either join me in pressuring the newbie or we all mass claim.  I think this could be ground breaking.  It will narrow down which game variety we have through the outing of town PR's and then our investigative views the vanillas (doc of course claims van

illa).

 

pressure the newb or mass claim.  wtf Darthe.  why the newb over everyone else?  and option #2, you cant really be serious on the mass claim crap.

 

 

 

Cloud - not a defense on the newb just asking why the newb over pressuring more vet players that actually know what their doign and will likely not make obvious slips. in my experience newbs dont need pressure to out themselves as scum; you did a fair job of outting yourself in Darthes game by your lack of being able to handle pressure from Mynd for example.

i just find Darthes wllingness to bulldog a newb out of the gate, latching onto a previous vote by Kronos, worth questioning. and why he's singling out one player for pressure when everyone should be equal opportunity at pressure. two questions he's thus ignored

 

 

pressure the newb or mass claim.  wtf Darthe.  why the newb over everyone else?  and option #2, you cant really be serious on the mass claim crap.

 
 
Excellent!  Red is on my town list as is Nol and Tress.  5 to go!

really, so you get pressure from your mass role claim idea and you switch motives. if it was a tactic fish for reactions, you pulled it way too fast.

ping #3

 

 

Vote Count:

 

Cloud: (1)  Mish

Hallia: (2)  WBK, Darthe

Des: (1) Nolder

WBK: (1) Hallia

Darthe: (1) Cloud

No Lynch: (1) Red

 

With 9 players it takes 5 to lynch.

 

Day will end Friday 1/18 at 3PM MST.

 

 

(To the bold) So, to be clear here Red, you are stating that I have pinged you (the bulldog) three times by page two and you aren't voting me?  You have also accused me so far of being heavy handed, fatalistic, extremist, scummy, bulldogging, fishing, latching, and avoiding answering questions.  I should mention that you state that I have not answered for questions that you only ask in the sentence before (aka directly in the same post and already pushing me for not answering it).  This has been highlighted in green and listed alongside a vote count for everyone's convenience.  

 

Red has bitten.  She knows that I extensively know her meta and is attempting to create a strong impression without risking herself by placing an early vote because with only two mafia that is risky.  Red is mafia.

 

Unvote Vote Red.

 

 

 

This I find to be pingy.  Seems like a pretty quick change to me.

 

unvote, vote Darthe

 

Red is still up for a no lynch Day 1.  This is the first time that I've been in a game where no lynch has been an option, so I'm not too aware of the benefits or faults besides what has been stated.  Is it a good idea for a game of this size?

[Darthe]

So!  On page 3 with little evidence and a game that hasn't even had everyone check in and I am about halfway to a lynch.  This is a good place to start looking for mafia.

[Red2111]

@ Darthe -

 

1. so you weren't trying to pressure a newb, you were just going for an easy lynch. gotcha.

 

2. if you get reads and take them into consideration after 1 post on a reactionary tool then your also prematurely analyzing your results.

 

3. inconsitanceys in my meta? awefully premature to be statign this considering things are just now starting to get juicy.

 

4. re-page thing. i was only pointing out my question abotu why you'd specify "its not on page 1 for me" when what page the quote was on wasn't part of the discussion. its like your throwing out tid bits to try and side track the convo.

 

5. you still haven't answered why you left that quote out of the ones i posted on that day in your smrt ass "heres your posts from that night" i dont like selective quoting when your appearing to have quoted all of my posts.

 

 

@ Nol - i'm sorry to hear that you think that about my cases. if you do that then you neglect half of the info i gain for the town through my play style. also, right now, my case on Darth and what i'm pressuring him over is mostly what you posted.

 

 

@ Tress - not a contradiction, your misunderstanding what i said. Darthe implied that the newb was easier to pressure because they make easier mistakes. this is his entire supposed reason for the 2nd vote. i was stating that newbs dont need "out of the gate" pressure like this to make mistakes and that generally they make those mistakes on their own either by how they react to events (either not directed at them or directed at them) and how they play. so it was to more point out the question of why Darthe came right out of the gate with this.

 

 

@ Kronos - No lynch is where we dont lynch anyone. the down side is that we get no corner report and loss some info that is gained from D1 where there are cases and trains. the upside is mainly that Mafia is a numbers game and given that the town is 99% sure to lose 1 over the night this keeps our numbers up, it also prevents us in this case from putting a wagon and outting the cop/doc which given the setups would put us at a great disadvantage.

 

 

i'm good with switching to Darth at this point but i'm equally good with no lynching and letting the cop (if there is one) view him over night. either way, theres plenty of time befor ethe deadline so no need to rush things.

 

[Red2111]

and thats one of the reasons i hate posting at work ignore he post above.

 

@ Darthe -

 

1. so you weren't trying to pressure a newb, you were just going for an easy lynch. gotcha.

 

2. if you get reads and take them into consideration after 1 post on a reactionary tool then your also prematurely analyzing your results.

 

3. inconsitanceys in my meta? awefully premature to be statign this considering things are just now starting to get juicy.

 

4. re-page thing. i was only pointing out my question abotu why you'd specify "its not on page 1 for me" when what page the quote was on wasn't part of the discussion. its like your throwing out tid bits to try and side track the convo.

 

5. you still haven't answered why you left that quote out of the ones i posted on that day in your smrt ass "heres your posts from that night" i dont like selective quoting when your appearing to have quoted all of my posts.

 

 

@ Nol - i'm sorry to hear that you think that about my cases. if you do that then you neglect half of the info i gain for the town through my play style. also, right now, my case on Darth and what i'm pressuring him over is mostly what you posted.

 

 

@ Tress - not a contradiction, your misunderstanding what i said. Darthe implied that the newb was easier to pressure because they make easier mistakes. this is his entire supposed reason for the 2nd vote. i was stating that newbs dont need "out of the gate" pressure like this to make mistakes and that generally they make those mistakes on their own either by how they react to events (either not directed at them or directed at them) and how they play. so it was to more point out the question of why Darthe came right out of the gate with this.

 

 

@ Kronos - No lynch is where we dont lynch anyone. the down side is that we get no corner report and loss some info that is gained from D1 where there are cases and trains. the upside is mainly that Mafia is a numbers game and given that the town is 99% sure to lose 1 over the night this keeps our numbers up, it also prevents us in this case from putting a wagon and outting the cop/doc which given the setups would put us at a great disadvantage.

 

i'm good with switching to Darth at this point but i'm equally good with no lynching and letting the cop (if there is one) view him over night. either way, theres plenty of time befor ethe deadline so no need to rush things.

[Darthe]

^ I'm pretty amused.  You're good with lynching me but, if the town doesn't want to then feel free to waste a cop shot!

 

God, logic has died in this world if any of you are dumb enough to drink the coolaid.

[Darthe]

I am sure that if I was lynched that you would go after the people voting me early because of their sheeping to your initial concerns, wouldn't you red?

[Nolder]

Anyone down for a policy lynch on Songstress? I don't feel right about lynching the guy with the most posts even if he is coming across scummy. I'm not 100% on Darthe anyway. He's probably just dug himself into a hole because half the game isn't even participating. We need to send a message that activity like this is NOT ok. How can we even play a game like this?

 

Unvote Darthe

Vote Songstress

[Darthe]

Uhm.. No.  Not yet.  First we lynch Redscum and get an arm up on the competition, then we lynch all syncophants and silent people.  In the end it will be a field of blood (as any proper Megadeth song should be) but we shall stand in victory.

[Darthe]

Also Despo hasn't posted at all and Hallia only has 1 post where Tress has two so that post fails in it's entirety.

[Darthe]

Damn it I was in a rush and forgot to use my font!

[Darthe]

******  **** ******  **** in the ******* world *****.

 

I Feel Better.

[Songstress]

Policy lynch on me why, exactly? Why do I worry you specifically, Nol?

[Red2111]

@ Nol - da faq? policy lynch on Tress? why her over anyone else. and seriously, not wanting to lynch Darth cause he's active ... activity has no bearing on alignment generally; i've seen games where scum accounted for over half the active posters in a game and games where the scum team did nothing but lurk. its a null tell imo and shouldn't influence your voting and a scummy co-opt reason for unvoting Darthe imo

 

i do agree with the activity point though. at this point, i've said my beef on darth and we need more people to interact to get good info for D1.

 

 

@ Darthe - you're the one thats scum in this game, i'm just trying to figure out now who your partner is. you want to lynch me, know that the only thing you'll accomplish the reverse of what post #61 says.

 

also, you twisted what i said. i'm good with voting you, but feel no need to right now seeing as theres no need to rush D1. we have until friday for the deadline. adn the cop thing was pointing out the obvious if we go no-lynch to keep the numbers up; you're the scummiest person so far and are most likely to be veiwed.

 

even with your blatant scumminess, given the numbers in this game no lynch still presents itself as the best option right now. we know the scum/town ratio for sure 2 scum / 7 townies. if we lynch each day and dont hit scum (which is a 75% probability on D1), its LYLO D2 as the ratio will be 2 scum / 5 town. no lynching today gets us to atleast D3 LYLO. my gut screams you're scum right now, but my gut has been wrong. i'd rather get a finding report on your that says your scum and lynch you then so we're not lynchigna townie and making it easier for the scum to win.

[Red2111]

mothers milk in a cup!! goat brain trolloc droppings of a sheep hearding wool brained senchan! i flamming hate the lack of keepingthe formatting in fast reply in IE

 

@ Nol - da faq? policy lynch on Tress? why her over anyone else. and seriously, not wanting to lynch Darth cause he's active ... activity has no bearing on alignment generally; i've seen games where scum accounted for over half the active posters in a game and games where the scum team did nothing but lurk. its a null tell imo and shouldn't influence your voting and a scummy co-opt reason for unvoting Darthe imo i do agree with the activity point though. at this point, i've said my beef on darth and we need more people to interact to get good info for D1.

 

 

@ Darthe - you're the one thats scum in this game, i'm just trying to figure out now who your partner is. you want to lynch me, know that the only thing you'll accomplish the reverse of what post #61 says. also, you twisted what i said. i'm good with voting you, but feel no need to right now seeing as theres no need to rush D1. we have until friday for the deadline. adn the cop thing was pointing out the obvious if we go no-lynch to keep the numbers up; you're the scummiest person so far and are most likely to be veiwed. even with your blatant scumminess, given the numbers in this game no lynch still presents itself as the best option right now. we know the scum/town ratio for sure 2 scum / 7 townies. if we lynch each day and dont hit scum (which is a 75% probability on D1), its LYLO D2 as the ratio will be 2 scum / 5 town. no lynching today gets us to atleast D3 LYLO. my gut screams you're scum right now, but my gut has been wrong. i'd rather get a finding report on your that says your scum and lynch you then so we're not lynchigna townie and making it easier for the scum to win.

[Darthe]

My partner is the town and the majority.  But you already knew that.  Also your logic is terrible there.  You're both copfishing and directing the cop and your post assumes two things that are not likely.  By Lylo it is possible that the Cop could have us up that far but much more likely is that one of the individuals (or more) that the cop views won't be scum and it is also potentially likely that the cop is night killed, thus setting us back two wasted days and a PR for no gain and a mafia slid through our grasp.

 

Your strategy appears to be logical at face value but would hang us in the end, the strategy of a good leader attempting to look like they're doing well as they trap their forces. 

[Darthe]

BTW for anyone that wants the statistics, Cop has a 2/8 chance of hitting scum (25%) that grows better each night (2/7 N2, 2/6 N3) and mafia has a 1/7 of killing the cop N1, also growing each day but their gain includes those viewed by the cop and so becomes (2/6, 3/5, 4/4).  You can quickly see why that goes wrong.

[Darthe]

Hey folks, scratch that my math was off on the cop.  Mafia is correct but I didn't compensate for the mafia kill on the cop part.  They go down at the same rate and the difference is the mafia being informed of two people instead of one.  So where mafia ends 4/4 cop is still potentially 4/5

[Nolder]

Uhm.. No.  Not yet.  First we lynch Redscum and get an arm up on the competition, then we lynch all syncophants and silent people.  In the end it will be a field of blood (as any proper Megadeth song should be) but we shall stand in victory.

 

I haven't seen anything scummy from Red as of yet.

[Nolder]

Also Despo hasn't posted at all and Hallia only has 1 post where Tress has two so that post fails in it's entirety.

 

Des should be getting replaced soon IMO. If our mod is on top of things anyway.

 

Hallia is new so I am giving her a newbie pass for day 1.

 

Songstress is next in line so it's on her the vote falls.

[Nolder]

Policy lynch on me why, exactly? Why do I worry you specifically, Nol?

 

Because you are not involved enough with the game. This is your...third post? The game started two days ago. That is ridiculous. I can give a pass to people who make really quality posts but only once or twice a day but you haven't said much of anything. That's not ok.

 

And please don't feel like I'm singling you out, Mish and Kronos are both next if they don't pick it up.

[Nolder]

activity has no bearing on alignment generally;

 

True. But if it has no bearing then it's really a coinflip either way right? 

I am tired of playing games on DM where over half the game gets replaces with people who barely post anyway and only get finished because of deadlines and modkills. It isn't fun. I like mafia but it's like we don't even get to play anymore because so many people drag the games down. I am still trying to help fix the problem and I believe policy lynching people that don't post enough is the way to go but if it doesn't work I may just quit DM mafia. It's really turning into something I do not at all enjoy.

[Red2111]

@ Nol: if lack of activity is your beef i can get that; i'm just confused as to why your singling out Tress over Cloud, Mish or Des in this case.

 

its not always quantity of posts with inactivity but also quality. and aside from Des who hasn't posted at all, and Hallia who you're giving a pass two, Cloud should be next on your list given he's posts maybe twice with only 1 content related post, then Mish, then Kronos & Tress.

 

 

 

 

 

and your logic of lynching me then going after inactives is about the shoddiest i've seen in all the games i've played.

 

no i dont know what your alingment is, only what my gut says about you and my gut says your scum.

 

my logic is not terrible, your reasons agaisnt the no lynch are. and i'm not cop fishing as i'm not trying to find out who the cop is; i'm not directing them either, only stating =what i believe will happen in the case that we go for the smart option and no lynch.

 

 

under a no lynch the cop has less probability of being hit by the NK. here are the numbers for both scenarios.

 

 

Lynch

 

d1 - probability of hitting a townie is 75%. ratio: 2 scum & 6 Town

 

n1: 90% - 100% of NK going through, 20% chance finder will find scum, 40% chance scum will NK finder. ratio 2 scum & 5 town.

 

d2: LYLO porbability of lynching townie over scum is 60% lacking finder results. if townie is lynch ratio: 2 scum & 4 town

 

n2: 90% - 100% of NK goign through and scum winning.

 

 

 

No-Lynch

 

d1: no deaths. ratio 2 scum & 7 town.

 

n1: 90% - 100% of NK going through, 10% chance finder will find scum, 30% chance scum will NK finder. ratio 2 scum & 6 town.

 

d2: no deaths lacking finder results. ratio: 2 scum & 6 town.

 

n2: 90% - 100% of NK going through, 25% chance finder will find scum, 40% chance scum will NK finder. ratio 2 scum & 5 town.

 

d3: no deaths lacking finder results. ratio: 2 scum & 5 town.

 

n3: 90% - 100% of NK going through, 40% chance finder will find scum, 50% chance scum will NK finder. ratio 2 scum & 4 town.

 

d4: LYLO

 

 

 

both of these exclude finder claiming an outting a scum as well as info gained from player interaction. %'s are subject to change. but the facts still remain

 

No lynch will

 

- buy us 1 more game day before LYLO

- give the finder more cover each night

 

 

therefore, it is more logical for us to No Lynch in this game.