[ADVANCED] KaeKey Game of Thrones Mafia - GAME OVER! NIGHT'S WATCH WINS!

[Kaylee]

Agreed!

[Verbal32]

Nah, I wanna see him fall down and pass out!

 

(j/k)

 

 

 

 

 

(sorta)

[Sakaea]

Night is over, scene coming.

[Sakaea]

As day dawned, Lord Baelish's most successful business's patrons were just leaving for the night. The madam in charge of this particular house went 'round to all the rooms, checking for lingering patrons. "Up you get, my Lord Tyrion. The night's over, my girls need their rest...my Lord?" Lord Tyrion Lannister was quite dead. Not at the age of 80, but his other wishes for dying appeared to have been fulfilled.

 

Ishy, Tyrion, Town Motivator, has been killed.

 

It is now Day 7.

 

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

[Red2111]

i was wrong abotu JLM, so that leaves

 

VOTE: MISH

 

 

as the scum on Strike 1.0s lynch.

[Verbal32]

i was wrong abotu JLM, so that leaves

 

VOTE: MISH

 

 

as the scum on Strike 1.0s lynch.

 

Where are you getting that again?

[John E. Kelley]

Lucky Tyrion. The way I feel right now, I envy him.

 

Go town.

[Red2111]

Mish was the only other oppportunistic perosn gunning for Strike N1. my gut says 1 of the 3 main people pushing hard on Strike was scum, part of the reason i started the pressure was to see reactions.

 

JLM and Mish latched on and started pushing along with me. JLM flipped solo, so she was being opportunistic, just not opportunisitc scum. Mish was cheerleading JLMs case all the way and keeping up the pressure.

 

 

theres a reason i was NKd on N1 and i think it had less to do with me being big game and mroe to do with securing a lynch on Strike.

 

 

processes of elimination leaves Mish. hence my vote.

[Verbal32]

I don't like taking prior NKs of a player into consideration like that - it potentially influences your play afterwards. It's the main reason I'm against replacements having been killed off players.

[Red2111]

well most of my case lends itself to that Verb. the other points i have is her lurking and only really commenting when her name is being mentioned as well as the flinging of the newbie card hard

[Verbal32]

I can understand the latter ones, but I can't get behind your primary motivation.

[Gabriel Kross]

Where is everyone at? Vote Basel btw for suspicion I have already stated.

[bgrishinko]

I'm back. Tired and exhausted from unplanned roadtrip from Houston to SLC and back.

[keyholder21]

Official Vote Count:

 

Mish (1) - Red

Basel (1) - EP

 

Not Voting (10): Kaylee, Verb, NS, BG, Dice, Rand, Mish, Des, Ed, Basel

 

With 12 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.

 

No deadline yet.

[bgrishinko]

6. EP - Jon Snow - Jailer

2. Kaylee - Sansa Stark - Odd Doc

7. Red 2.0 - Catlyn Stark - Even Doc

13. BG - Gendry - RB Enabler

21. Eds - Robb Stark - Cop

22. Basel 2.0 - Jorah Mormont - RB

--

11. Verbal - ?

12. dice - ?

17. Misheru - ?

19. Rand 2.0 - ?

20. Nightstrike - ?

23. Despo - ?

 

-----

 

I'm of the opinion still that Ed is not recruited as he lead the case on Tress. It would be a dangerous gambit as the cult hadn't even been outted yet and Tress wasn't under any pressure, why not keep on recruiting? As such, I also trust that EP is town based on the LD and Ed's view. I also don't think there is a backup recruiter given that we know there is also a mafia team.

 

So status of Cult:

As such, it is likely there are 2 other recruits. In my opinion that could be anyone excluding Ed and EP. However, I think we are putting so large a focus on catching the remaining two, that we are forgetting to focus on mafia here.

 

Going with a 1/3 anti-town ratio of 8, we've had 2 mafia, 1 cultmaster, and 2 3rd parties. This leads me to believe that there are at very least 2 more mafia out there. I can't imagine starting the game with only a 3-4 man mafia team for 24 people. Balance with a cult is tough though. So I'm of the opinion there are actually 3-4 more mafia. I think, at this point eliminating the mafia is a priority. They seem to be the only night kills occuring and if we can put an end to that, we can work out the remaining cultists at that point. I think the mafia would take advantage of the cult flip and derail the conversation into FoSing others we know are likely town. i.e. Lynch Ed, Lynch EP.

 

As such, in an effort to mafia hunt, I'm seeing Verbal pushing the lynch on Ed as possible cult as a very opportunistic front to try and have a valid reason to take out the cop. If we listen to Verb, the only town outcome is the worst case scenario.... Which is Ed is cult, we can handle that easily later on and gives us no info except to put EP in question again. But even as a culted cop, he could still be telling the truth about EP as WIFOM, so info is bunk anyway at that point. Sneaky way to push a lynch on the cop while attempting to look town.

 

Vote Verbal

[michellem]

Red, your read is outdated to say the least. And I haven't been lurking on purpose; I've explained on thread why I've had low activity, I'm not lurking on purpose.

 

 

Question; does Doc or Jailer prevent recruiting too, or just NKs?

[bgrishinko]

I'm fairly certain both are just protection from NK's.

[Red2111]

i dont know about Eps role, but i asked adn i'm just a normal run of the mill Doc. so only NKs for me.

 

 

i also protected Kay last night.

[Verbal32]

6. EP - Jon Snow - Jailer

2. Kaylee - Sansa Stark - Odd Doc

7. Red 2.0 - Catlyn Stark - Even Doc

13. BG - Gendry - RB Enabler

21. Eds - Robb Stark - Cop

22. Basel 2.0 - Jorah Mormont - RB

--

11. Verbal - ?

12. dice - ?

17. Misheru - ?

19. Rand 2.0 - ?

20. Nightstrike - ?

23. Despo - ?

 

-----

 

I'm of the opinion still that Ed is not recruited as he lead the case on Tress. It would be a dangerous gambit as the cult hadn't even been outted yet and Tress wasn't under any pressure, why not keep on recruiting? As such, I also trust that EP is town based on the LD and Ed's view. I also don't think there is a backup recruiter given that we know there is also a mafia team.

 

So status of Cult:

As such, it is likely there are 2 other recruits. In my opinion that could be anyone excluding Ed and EP. However, I think we are putting so large a focus on catching the remaining two, that we are forgetting to focus on mafia here.

 

Going with a 1/3 anti-town ratio of 8, we've had 2 mafia, 1 cultmaster, and 2 3rd parties. This leads me to believe that there are at very least 2 more mafia out there. I can't imagine starting the game with only a 3-4 man mafia team for 24 people. Balance with a cult is tough though. So I'm of the opinion there are actually 3-4 more mafia. I think, at this point eliminating the mafia is a priority. They seem to be the only night kills occuring and if we can put an end to that, we can work out the remaining cultists at that point. I think the mafia would take advantage of the cult flip and derail the conversation into FoSing others we know are likely town. i.e. Lynch Ed, Lynch EP.

 

As such, in an effort to mafia hunt, I'm seeing Verbal pushing the lynch on Ed as possible cult as a very opportunistic front to try and have a valid reason to take out the cop. If we listen to Verb, the only town outcome is the worst case scenario.... Which is Ed is cult, we can handle that easily later on and gives us no info except to put EP in question again. But even as a culted cop, he could still be telling the truth about EP as WIFOM, so info is bunk anyway at that point. Sneaky way to push a lynch on the cop while attempting to look town.

 

Vote Verbal

 

So, you're cult and trying to focus the town on hunting mafia, while I'm mafia and trying to focus the town on hunting cult?

 

Hmmm....sounds like we both need to die, eh?

[bgrishinko]

Nope. I'm not cult, and I've done my share of cult hunting too the past few days, but I'm thinking that killing the NK seems like it should be a higher priority right now.

[hazelkrs1]

So, you're cult and trying to focus the town on hunting mafia, while I'm mafia and trying to focus the town on hunting cult?

 

Hmmm....sounds like we both need to die, eh?

 

Wuttttt???

 

I already had my doubts about you Verb, ever since Darthe flipped maf, but this here pretty much seems like an admission of guilt. Regardless of whether or not BG is cult, he does have a point in that eliminating the NK would make it easier for us to find cult afterwards.

 

Yeah, you gots to go today.

 

Vote Verbal

 

And I still think we need to take care of NS at some point, either lynching him or viewing him. The case on Cyan looked pretty strong, and it kinda looked to me like she EP'd Nightstrike (ask JLM). Not sure why everyone let him off the hook so easy after that

[Red2111]

for me, it depends on if the cult has a back up recruiter or not as far as which is more of a threat. if no back up recruiter then i agree with BG, we need to focus on scum. if there is a back up (which i'm leaning mroe towards tbh) then both are equal threats still.

 

 

we started with 24 players, normal ratio is 1/4 to 1/3 (anti-town to town) which is between 6 and 8 total anti-town/non-town roles

 

we know the and have eliminated following

 

1 - cult leader

2 - scum

1 - sk

1 - solo (yes i'm including JLM cause she wasn't aligned with the town)

 

 

which leaves 1 to 3 unaccounted for anti-towns to start with.

 

 

 

further stats - add in the fact that Tress had a recruit for 3 Nights, and excluding the possability that she might have been blocked for worst case scenario; we're dealing with

 

at most 8 townies (as low as 5 townies if a back up recruiter exists)

 

and between 4 and 7 anti towns (7 and 10 anti-towns if a backup recruiter exists)

 

 

 

tbh Verb has been giving me a town vibe, as has Despo. Basel i'm leaning heavily town on, if Danny had flipped cult then he'd be scum to me, but cult RBer (which is what you guys are pushing and what Mish has latched onto) stinks to high heaven and makes no sense imo. its possible he was recruited later on, but i dont think he started as cult. Kay is in the same boat as Basel, started town, not willing to lynch her yet but possible recruit.

 

my gut still says EP is cult, but you guys aren't willing to go that route even though it would confirm Ed one way or the other.

 

Dice still pings as scum and i'd be willing to vote him. but Mish has been pinging the highest and longest out of these two.

 

 

Rand and Strike are two i dont have reads on. though i do agree that Cyan was scummy and that shouldn't be over looked.

 

 

 

BG, you OTOH, your latest post syaing we need to focus on scum pings greatly as cult trying to direct the town away from them. you've been pinging all game as well, your early game play was scummy as all get out; i'm pegging you as recruited cult atm.

 

 

 

to sum this up, my vibes are

 

Mafia - Dice and Mish

Cult - BG, EP, and Ed

 

 

i'd be willing to vote any of those 5.

[Red2111]

i also had another thought, one to atleast help prove Basel and Eds roles. Basel coudl target Ed, if Ed is blocked then that kinda clears both of them for the time and atleast confirms Basel as a RBer.

 

recruited cult do not retain their abilities btw. so this would do two things, allow us to both discount them as cult and if one ends up killed and flips scum will out the other as scum. it directly links the two together, and normally i'm agains it; but the WIFOM is too much for me right now and would help alot if it were cleared up and this way it would sort of solve the issue without having to lynch one of them.

[bgrishinko]

What's wrong with the logic that focusing on Mafia is a better move right now? If cult had a backup, then this game is pretty much already over for town. There would have had to have been 2 cult to start and a recruit each day, subtract one, is 7 people.... a voting majority.

 

Also, let's say there is a backup and recruiting was every other day for balance... then wouldn't the backup cult leader have to be someone who hasn't claimed or fake claimed as opposed to Ed who at least started as Cop and EP who thanks to John we know didn't start as cult? Wouldn't it behoove us to make getting the backup leader a priority? In that case, doesn't it seem logical to hunt in the list of unclaimed folks for mafia/backup cult leader as a top priority?

 

I still don't think there is a backup. As such, I think mafia hunting is the best way to go. Afterall, cultists would be rendered roleless and not pose a threat at night.

[hazelkrs1]

I actually just thought about this Red, since you pointed out again that recruited people usually lose their abilities. If BG had been recruited, wouldn't he have lost his ability as well, which means that most likely Basel and EP's ability wouldn't be able to be used either.

 

Have we heard from Basel or EP if they know whether their NA still works? We don't know that Basel successfully blocked Razen, but the evidence does kind of lean in that favor for that night, which was two nights ago. I know he said who he blocked the night before last as well I think, just can't remember who it was. Hmmm... wasn't it Verb in fact? Did Verb ever confirm being blocked that night?

 

I do like how you brought up Dice however, I almost forgot about him. He could use some pressure as well imo. Still think Verb is the way to go today however, as the wifom involving him and Darthe won't go away till we get a coroner's report or a viewing