CAUTION: Super Spoiler Prologue discussion; Leave the cops out of it :)

[The Fisher King]

After all that time Gawyn swearing to kill Rand/see him die I'd be a bit let down if he doesn't purposely play a role in Rand's death. Or at least an attempt on his life. Just please no assisted suicide, eww. As for his reasons, well he jumped to assumptions rather quickly the first time, readily believing the worst of Rand and set on killing him. I suspect he doesn't need very much to sway him. What with the conflict between Rand and Eggy I can see him deciding Rand needs to die at his hand again. It's not Gawyn thinks things out and considers the fate of the world seriously or anything...

 

Yeah, he knows his mother is alive now but he's already been softened for the task. The fact that he chose to believe Rand was guilty when everyone he should have been listening to was denying it...that says something about him. I don't know that he will necessarily do it in a spiteful way when the time comes; I think the most likely scenario is a Suroth/Alwhin/Liandrin type situation, or 'will no one ride me of this tiresome priest?' type situation. I think it has to involve Egwene somehow because she is all tied up on the foreshadowing too. But the quote in my sig suggests that Gawyn will betray her, which points to the aforementioned scenario where Gawyn acts for Egwene, but not on her orders.

 

Twisty, ain't it?

 

 

Fish

[Terez]

From a theorizing standpoint, yes. But from a plot perspective, not really. Nor is it particularly twisty from Gawyn's perspective; it would be very much in character. As for the twistiness of the theorizing, I think RJ purposefully kept this one mostly in a black box. Not quite as black-box as things like sealing the Bore, but close.

[TootThatHorn]

Isam thinks while watching Moridin:

 

The Samma N’Sei had thought Moridin one of the Talentless until he demonstrated differently. The constraints that held them did not hold him.

What constraints could he mean here?

 

I asked this same question earlier. My guess is that the Samma N'Sei are not allowed to kill each other, the channelers that is. Moridin is not held to this restriction. Therefore they came after him and he taught them a lesson.

 

 

Save her country, of course. If the danger of the BT becomes well known, that's one more reason for her to go back. Towards that end, I think its significant that the Palace is still okay, as of the Prologue. Add that to Mat's comments about how very well suited the Palace is to resisting invasion (even should the outer and inner walls fail), almost a bunker, and I think there's a good chance a substantial portion of Elayne's army will come sweeping out and push back the Trollocs, only to meet up with the battle at the Black Tower.

 

 

 

I can see most of that happening, but why would Elayne's army go to the BT? That battle will be fought purely with the One Power, there are no regular soldiers there. Sending her armies in there would be suicide. There's always the Kin, but Androl made it clear that the Ashaman must deal with themselves, either by bringing back the Ashaman outside the BT, or by uniting those inside the BT against Taim.

 

Or she could land there, push back the Trollocs, then an even bigger force could come to trap her in the Palace (with the range of the Dreamspike extended perhaps?). Lots of possibilities, but she's certainly not going to the Tower. Why should she? The Tower's army is plenty big (200,000+ well trained soldeirs). They can handle the Seanchan.

 

It seems to me that the Seanchan significantly outnumber the WT. They lost 300,000 men against Ituralde, and Turan claimed that was but a breeze compared to the storm he had raised. As for channellers, Egwene has maybe 600 full Aes Sedai at her command. I imagine the Seanchan can go way beyond that number with damane. Now the Aes Sedai have plenty novices they can use as power sources for cirles, but this battle, if it happens, won't be like the raid. It won't take place in the WT, with walls for the novices to hide behind, while the Aes Sedai do the weaving. Basically the novices will be in far greater danger in this battle. And while the WT has the advantage of of circles, those also have a downside: they limit the number of channellers weaving. Not only that but the damane are quite simply better at fighting than the majority of Aes Sedai. All things told, I just don't see how the WT can win this on it's own. I'm sure it'll put up a good fight, especially with Bryne and Egwene leading them, but ultimately the Seanchan armies are just too overwhelming.

 

I think Turan was either bluffing or he means that the Seanchan can raise an even larger army from the Seanchan mainland. We see from Elayne's POV that Andor, the single most powerful country in Randland, can raise 100K. Altara, Amadicia, and Tarabon are not in the same league as Andor. Before the Dragon sworn battles, civil wars, and various other militias recruiting (such as Egwene and Mat) each of those three countries could have raised perhaps 70K soldiers.

 

While I don't remember the exact count that was lost Ituralde, we will assume it was 300k. How many has Rand killed? How many has Mat killed? I'd estimate in the range of 500K and heavily weighted in Seanchan mainlanders.

 

In our modern world, the only country in the world that can field those types of numbers are the US - and that's only because of our freakin unbelievable logistical operations.

 

They may have superiority in the number of damane, but they are not able to truly work independently. There will always be a delay due to the link of the a'dam.

 

The Seanchan have been burning their military assets at both ends of the candle. They are still powerful, but will not be receiving any aid from the Seanchan mainland. At this time, I don't think they are any more powerful than the WT in terms of soldiers and channellers.

 

Lol bold.

[Maleshub]

After all that time Gawyn swearing to kill Rand/see him die I'd be a bit let down if he doesn't purposely play a role in Rand's death. Or at least an attempt on his life. Just please no assisted suicide, eww. As for his reasons, well he jumped to assumptions rather quickly the first time, readily believing the worst of Rand and set on killing him. I suspect he doesn't need very much to sway him. What with the conflict between Rand and Eggy I can see him deciding Rand needs to die at his hand again. It's not Gawyn thinks things out and considers the fate of the world seriously or anything...

 

Yeah, he knows his mother is alive now but he's already been softened for the task. The fact that he chose to believe Rand was guilty when everyone he should have been listening to was denying it...that says something about him. I don't know that he will necessarily do it in a spiteful way when the time comes; I think the most likely scenario is a Suroth/Alwhin/Liandrin type situation, or 'will no one ride me of this tiresome priest?' type situation. I think it has to involve Egwene somehow because she is all tied up on the foreshadowing too. But the quote in my sig suggests that Gawyn will betray her, which points to the aforementioned scenario where Gawyn acts for Egwene, but not on her orders.

 

Under the influence of last night's reading Gawyn's The Shadow Rising parts where Siuan is deposed, Gawyn is unstable enough to act on Egwene's frustration through the bond! He won't need much to spur him to act. And his betrayal doesn't have to be logical at all, i.e. Elaida's coup and other Gawyn trait marks. He is impulsive enough to do it. And that is Gawyn's theme throughout the books: impulsive and emotional without thinking.

 

And if Talmanes died, then Gawyn Trakand will probably die as well. Would be epic if Galad does what is right regardless of who it hurts and ends up bonded to the Amyrlin.

 

It's difficult to speculate how many were lost. You are correct it probably wasn't the entire army, but an army in chaotic retreat with no supplies in a foreign and hostile land leaves a lot of dead.

 

I still maintain that the Seanchan Army can't field much more than the White Tower of trained soldiers without drawing reserves from the mainland...which is not going to happen at the current time. Still a very significant force.

 

When taking into account that Ituralde's army was 100K and had lost 50K in the battle, how many do you think the victor could have killed. All it needed for the Seanchan army to break was the archery volleys to take out the damane and the destruction of one part of the army (the one pitted against the wall with Turan killed or thought dead). Medieval armies in battle usually consisted of 4 main contingents: Heart, Left Flank, Right Flank, and Rear Guard. If one of them is utterly destroyed, the Seanchan captains would be smart enough to know the battle is lost and that it is time to retreat.

 

Ituralde's failure to give pursuit was due to his troops tiredness, which gives the Seanchan a better chance of saving their lives.

 

Yes it is hard to speculate how many Seanchan survived; but it is reasonable to believe that about half survived. That is the minimum in my estimate. And the survivors explain the Seanchan's ability to raise a second army quickly and send it against Arad Doman.

[fionwe1987]

Considering that they have abandoned the palace not sure how it will be ok!!

It wasn't fully abandoned. They left some soldiers there. And since the Tollocs don't have siege equipment, the soldiers may hold for some time.

Seachan can throw more nos at the tower than what the WT can field on it's own.

Certainly, if they were to empty out all their soldiers in all their territories. Exactly how can they afford to do that, though? They have Illian and Tear to contend with, and they'll be plenty weary of Andor and Arad Doman as well.

 

I can see most of that happening, but why would Elayne's army go to the BT? That battle will be fought purely with the One Power, there are no regular soldiers there. Sending her armies in there would be suicide.

Not sending them and waiting to see how things play out there would be suicide too. Added to that, Dragons... those can certainly be put to good use destroying the walls of the BT.

There's always the Kin, but Androl made it clear that the Ashaman must deal with themselves, either by bringing back the Ashaman outside the BT, or by uniting those inside the BT against Taim.

Except, as Elaida's foretelling made clear, the Aes Sedai, at the very least, will be involved in the BT issue. And Elayne has shown interest aplenty to do something about the Black Tower.

It seems to me that the Seanchan significantly outnumber the WT. They lost 300,000 men against Ituralde, and Turan claimed that was but a breeze compared to the storm he had raised.

Firstly, the entire Seanchan army can't possibly be used to attack the WT. Quite apart from the huge risk this would place their territories in, the largest Gateway the strongest damane can produce is 4 paces by 4. Which means they'll need to have hundreds of damane maintaining Gateways to transport any army, and the larger that army the longer the Gateways remain open, or the more the damane you need to open them.

 

Either scenario, as we can imagine, would place them against a significant disadvantage against the Tower, which needs a mere 13 channelers to open a Gateway a 100 paces wide. The Gateway advantage for the White Tower is still significant.

 

Secondly, Turan's claims most likely included what could be raised in the Seanchan mainland, as someone pointed out.

As for channellers, Egwene has maybe 600 full Aes Sedai at her command.

With many newly raised sisters from the powerful Novices and Accepted. And also a continuing recruitment sceme that is likely to have expanded all over with Traveling, and the Rebellion over. This means the number of Novices/Accepted is likely to have gone up, even with the depletion from those raised to Aes Sedai.

 

This is implied in ToM, and we also have knowledge that something similar was done during the Trolloc Wars. Add in that the original complement of Aes Sedai is closer to 800, not 600, and the Tower's actual AS numbers are likely to be around 1000, at the very least.

 

I imagine the Seanchan can go way beyond that number with damane.

On what basis? The Seanchan numbers, again, can't be replenished with new entrants from Seanchan. They also lost a large number to Ituralde's attack, and some were lost in Rand's Altaran campaign too. Add the losses from the White Tower raid (where they seem to have lost more than they gained), and I'm hardly sure they can even match the Tower's Aes Sedai, let alone the Novice and Accepted numbers.

 

Now the Aes Sedai have plenty novices they can use as power sources for cirles, but this battle, if it happens, won't be like the raid. It won't take place in the WT, with walls for the novices to hide behind, while the Aes Sedai do the weaving.

Selucia and Tuon planned for the attack to begin in the Tower. The Gateways will open to the Tower basements. Which means the Aes Sedai can very easily surround the Tower itself with their army, which can reach there much more quickly via huge Gateways.

 

Further, you don't need the Novices to be kept behind walls. Since the Seanchan won't be able to use shielding at all, they'll have to outright attack, which means the Aes Sedai can hit back from the get go. And the Aes Sedai hits are going to be significantly more powerful with their circles.

 

Lastly, there's going to be no element of surprise this time. The exact timing of the attack might shock the Aes Sedai, but they aren't going to be woken from sleep by the attack, nor are most of them going to be completely clueless about the Seanchan. As such, their resistance is going to be a lot stiffer compared to before.

Basically the novices will be in far greater danger in this battle. And while the WT has the advantage of of circles, those also have a downside: they limit the number of channellers weaving.

So? As we saw with the Windfinders vs. the Black sisters, circles can simply overwhelm equal numbers of unlinked channelers. It doesn't matter that only one person is weaving when those weaves are going to be much more precise and powerful. Added to this, the Aes Sedai can simply mask their ability and strike from hidden locations without being detected.

 

Lastly, the Aes Sedai will also have angreal and sa'angreal. Since these are warded in a secret location now, all it would take is for those in the know to gate in, extract all the 'greals, and give them out to the most skilled women in circles, and suddenly the Aes Sedai have even more fire power. And if the attack comes when most of the AS are in Merrilor, they'll be able to offer more organized resistance, with a remote base of operations.

 

Not only that but the damane are quite simply better at fighting than the majority of Aes Sedai. All things told, I just don't see how the WT can win this on it's own. I'm sure it'll put up a good fight, especially with Bryne and Egwene leading them, but ultimately the Seanchan armies are just too overwhelming.

Not a chance. Unless Brandon forgets the superiority in numbers, skills and sheer OP strength the Aes Sedai have over the Seanchan, there's no way the Seanchan attack stands a chance. Perhaps if they forkrooted all the AS first...

 

As for the Damane skills, do remember that once Egwene got them to link, even Novices were able to push the damane back in the WT raid. The rest of the Aes Sedai may not have the same amount of practice with destructive weaves, but they're the most skilled female channelers on the whole, and any Aes Sedai can copy a weave once she sees one. Plus, they do know how to defend themselves against the OP, and will have significantly more power flowing into those weaves than their enemies. Plus, Egwene has probably thought them all she learned of the damane weaves after the unification. This being Egwene, you can be sure she learned a lot, and also innovated a lot. At least, that would be in character. No clue if we actually will get that, though.

Just a comment on the WT's military machine. Pre-unification Elaida had 50K Tower Guards and Egwene had 70K under Bryne. After reunification, the WT tried to recruit and train new soldiers. How much could they have recruited in a month? 30K, 50K? My estimate is that the Tower has less than 200K in total forces, probably closer to 150K than 200K. But I don't expect the WT to have exceeded 200K.

They don't need more than that. For one thing, the Seanchan are unlikely to commit to more than that number to the WT attack anyway. If they do, they won't be able to bring in all those soldiers by Gateway either.

[Dryone]

Have we seen anything similar to the phrase "By grace and banners fallen?" It just seems very awkward to me. In the text, if I recall*, Talmanes says this in response to his realization that the LB is starting.

 

It's an interesting sentiment. I would think, looking at the phrase itself, that it would be more properly applied to the end of a war, ie "by the grace of the Creator and the banners of the men who fell, we have prevailed over the Dark One." Declaring the start of the last battle of a very long war to be because of grace ("by") is counter-intuitive.

 

I interpreted it as a curse referring to a lost battle: fallen banners and having to hope for mercy (grace) from your enemy. As with many curses you invoke the things you do not want.

 

And in that situation he doesn't think of the last battle but of loosing Caemlyn.

[Maleshub]

Just a comment on the WT's military machine. Pre-unification Elaida had 50K Tower Guards and Egwene had 70K under Bryne. After reunification, the WT tried to recruit and train new soldiers. How much could they have recruited in a month? 30K, 50K? My estimate is that the Tower has less than 200K in total forces, probably closer to 150K than 200K. But I don't expect the WT to have exceeded 200K.

They don't need more than that. For one thing, the Seanchan are unlikely to commit to more than that number to the WT attack anyway. If they do, they won't be able to bring in all those soldiers by Gateway either.

 

Any Seanchan attack on the WT will probably involve several thousand elite soldiers and as many damane as can be recruited for the mission. It won't be a battle of two huge armies. But that is just a hunch.

[Dryone]

 

In our modern world, the only country in the world that can field those types of numbers are the US - and that's only because of our freakin unbelievable logistical operations.

 

 

Well, army sizes of Russia, China, India and North Korea are above 1.000K, Iran has 500K. It may be true that only the US can bring that numbers to any field on the earth. Unfortunately for you, on most fields you'd want to bring those numbers to, there's already an army of that size present. ;-)

[Agitel]

The end of Avi's POV leads me to believe she'll die before she can name her children.

[herid]

Isam thinks while watching Moridin:

 

The Samma N’Sei had thought Moridin one of the Talentless until he demonstrated differently. The constraints that held them did not hold him.

What constraints could he mean here?

 

I asked this same question earlier.

 

Sorry, I didn't see that becfore asking.

My guess is that the Samma N'Sei are not allowed to kill each other, the channelers that is. Moridin is not held to this restriction. Therefore they came after him and he taught them a lesson.

That's a good idea. It would be somewhat strange though given that Balck Ajah don't seem to have any such restrictions on them.

[Dryone]

The end of Avi's POV leads me to believe she'll die before she can name her children.

 

I don't think so: it usually takes 8-9 months between conception and birth. Since TG is around tomorrow, Avi will live for at least another 8 months. I doubt very much that AMOL will cover that timeframe.

[Luckers]

The end of Avi's POV leads me to believe she'll die before she can name her children.

 

Except Min foresaw children.

[Neophyte]

The end of Avi's POV leads me to believe she'll die before she can name her children.

 

I assume you say that because you think that she will be unable to change the future which she saw in the Rhuidean ter'angreal. However, since in that vision her children remember her, and remember her speaking about what it meant to be Aiel now that their toh as a people had been met, her premature death would be a change too. That would be a much bigger change. So, I doubt that her determination to name one of her children differently will cause her death.

 

However, even with her determination to change the name of one of her children, that doesn't have to mean that she actually changes the future. For example, let's say she names the child whose PoV she saw "Suzy" instead of "Padra." Maybe when "Suzy" is ten years old, something happens that causes her to take a new name, and she starts calling herself "Padra." There are still plenty of ways that they future Aviendha saw could be fulfilled, even if she gives one of her children a different name at birth. That idea seemed more to me like a symbolic way for Bair to give Aviendha some hope, not an amazing trick that changes the future.

[Icaruss]

On what basis? The Seanchan numbers, again, can't be replenished with new entrants from Seanchan. They also lost a large number to Ituralde's attack, and some were lost in Rand's Altaran campaign too. Add the losses from the White Tower raid (where they seem to have lost more than they gained), and I'm hardly sure they can even match the Tower's Aes Sedai, let alone the Novice and Accepted numbers.

 

Brandon himself has said that they considered the raid a success which implies they gained more than they lost, And Egwene, once the battle is over says

TGS CH 41

"...And still, the Tower had burned. And still, more to'raken had escaped than fallen.....The White Tower would not come out ahead in this battle."

 

Selucia and Tuon planned for the attack to begin in the Tower. The Gateways will open to the Tower basements. Which means the Aes Sedai can very easily surround the Tower itself with their army, which can reach there much more quickly via huge Gateways.

 

Further, you don't need the Novices to be kept behind walls. Since the Seanchan won't be able to use shielding at all, they'll have to outright attack, which means the Aes Sedai can hit back from the get go. And the Aes Sedai hits are going to be significantly more powerful with their circles.

 

Lastly, there's going to be no element of surprise this time. The exact timing of the attack might shock the Aes Sedai, but they aren't going to be woken from sleep by the attack, nor are most of them going to be completely clueless about the Seanchan. As such, their resistance is going to be a lot stiffer compared to before.

 

I don't remember Tuon or Selucia saying the attack would start from the Towers basement, and since they have gateways there is really no need for it to since they can travel wherever they want to inside both the Tower and Tar Valon as a whole.

Unless every single sister, novice, or accepted is able to join a circle at a moments notice (which i doubt they will) they can still be shielded.

There is definitely going to be suprise this time, last time Egwene had dreamed of the attack and had some slight advanced notice. This time Egwene (the amyrlin, and the person who led them in the last battle) won't be there and niether will a number of sisters and maybe accepted, because they'll be at FOM.

 

Not a chance. Unless Brandon forgets the superiority in numbers, skills and sheer OP strength the Aes Sedai have over the Seanchan, there's no way the Seanchan attack stands a chance. Perhaps if they forkrooted all the AS first...

 

As for the Damane skills, do remember that once Egwene got them to link, even Novices were able to push the damane back in the WT raid. The rest of the Aes Sedai may not have the same amount of practice with destructive weaves, but they're the most skilled female channelers on the whole, and any Aes Sedai can copy a weave once she sees one. Plus, they do know how to defend themselves against the OP, and will have significantly more power flowing into those weaves than their enemies. Plus, Egwene has probably thought them all she learned of the damane weaves after the unification. This being Egwene, you can be sure she learned a lot, and also innovated a lot. At least, that would be in character. No clue if we actually will get that, though.

 

I don't think there's any textual edvidence that supports the Aes Sedai having that superior The Aes Sedai have a lot of skills that the damane don't have but combat and destruction is something they know wayy better then the Aes Sedai. The raid on the Tower showed their inexperience when it comes to battle (even the Greens weren't really helping the situation). Yes once Egwene got them to form circles they were able to at least hold off the attck but Egwene being both in a circle and using that sa'angreal were the big reason why they were even able fight back. The problem with having to copy a destructive weave, is its a destructive weave, there's a good chance they could die or be captured before they even learn to copy the weave.

 

The problem with saying things like "Egwene has probably taught them all she learned" is that there is nothing to suggest she has. Oddly in the chapter as the one quoted above Egwene goes on to say...

 

TGS CH 41

"I was a burning warrior, a hero called by the horn. They won't dare face me again"

 

She sounds pretty confident here, which isn't good considering all they repelled was a raid and not a full out assult.

 

Those sisters who are left in the tower are undoubtably going to put up a good fight, but considering a portion of them will be at FOM, the attack is inanticipated, and they don't have as much combat experience as the damane, I'd gi ve this one to the Seanchan

[TootThatHorn]

No need for apology herid, I was relating, it struck me as well. Same with Moggy noting a sun in TAR, which I saw as possibly significant for prophecy, but I can't get that one rolling yet lol.

[fionwe1987]

Brandon himself has said that they considered the raid a success which implies they gained more than they lost, And Egwene, once the battle is over says

TGS CH 41

"...And still, the Tower had burned. And still, more to'raken had escaped than fallen.....The White Tower would not come out ahead in this battle."

Both those statements are true. Not by numbers, but because the Seanchan got Traveling.

 

For the numbers:

"If it pleases the Highest Daughter," General Yulan continued. "Our plan calls for the use twenty squads of the Fist of Heaven—two hundred troops total—and fifty linked sul'dam. We think that, perhaps, a small group of Bloodknives would be appropriate as well."

 

Fifty sul'dam and damane pairs, including Dali and her sul'dam Malahavana, whom Fortuona had given to the cause.

 

Only three novices in Egwene's group of over sixty had died? And only one sister out of some forty she had gathered? Ten Seanchan channelers captured, over thirty raken blown from the air?

 

So the Seanchan lost about forty of their fifty Sul'dam-damane pairs. In return, they got:

 

Nearly forty initiates—over two dozen of them full Aes Sedai—snatched in the night and carried off.

 

This doesn't, however, account for the number of those captives killed when Egwene destroyed the to'raken carrying them. All told, while the total number of Aes Sedai lost to the Tower, which includes the dead as well as the captive, is certainly more than the 40 the Seanchan lost, in terms of absolute numbers, the Seanchan lost 40 experienced damane for 24-30 AS and some 10 or so Novices/Accepted, minus those that died in Egwene's hands. So, they didn't gain more than they lost, but they did learn Traveling, which makes their attack a victory.

 

I don't remember Tuon or Selucia saying the attack would start from the Towers basement, and since they have gateways there is really no need for it to since they can travel wherever they want to inside both the Tower and Tar Valon as a whole.

Nonetheless, that is their plan:

 

We will need to strike soon, Selucia signed.

Yes, Fortuona signed back. Our previous attack will have them gathering arms.

Our next move will have to be decisive, then, Selucia signed. But think. Delivering thousands of soldiers into the White Tower through a hidden basement room. Striking with the force of a thousand hammers against a thousand anvils!

Fortuona nodded.

The White Tower was doomed.

 

Unless every single sister, novice, or accepted is able to join a circle at a moments notice (which i doubt they will) they can still be shielded.

That is exactly what the Salidar sisters achieved with their plan to for many circles as soon as a Foresaken attacked. Looks like individual sisters were assigned circles to form, and Novices and Accepted were made part of these circles for added strength.

 

There is definitely going to be suprise this time, last time Egwene had dreamed of the attack and had some slight advanced notice. This time Egwene (the amyrlin, and the person who led them in the last battle) won't be there and niether will a number of sisters and maybe accepted, because they'll be at FOM.

But Egwene and the others know the Seanchan have Traveling now. As we've seen from Egwene's PoV in ToM, she fully expects a bigger attack.

 

She hesitated. Chances were good that the Seanchan had Traveling now. Nobody was safe from them, no matter how far or close they might be.

 

I don't think there's any textual edvidence that supports the Aes Sedai having that superior

I refer you to the numbers of the dead among those Egwene lead. The thing is, with circles, you don't need to know a variety of destructive weaves. Your defensive weaves can't be breached by any single damane, and you can't be shielded either, leaving you free to shield or attack them, or to simply disconnect the a'dam, at which point the damane will just bow down and stop fighting. Which is why the loss ratio was so skewed for Egwene's group vs. the Seanchan, even though there were many Novices.

 

The Aes Sedai have a lot of skills that the damane don't have but combat and destruction is something they know wayy better then the Aes Sedai. The raid on the Tower showed their inexperience when it comes to battle (even the Greens weren't really helping the situation).

Yes, but the Greens were asleep when the attack occurred, and not working together at all. I have no doubt the damane have practice destructive weaves better than AS. But as we've seen, that stops to matter against circles.

Yes once Egwene got them to form circles they were able to at least hold off the attck but Egwene being both in a circle and using that sa'angreal were the big reason why they were even able fight back. The problem with having to copy a destructive weave, is its a destructive weave, there's a good chance they could die or be captured before they even learn to copy the weave.

But that won't be the case here. The majority of the AS are going to be in FoM, and all of them can Travel now, if they have the strength or a circle behind them. Unlike in the WT raid, the Aes Sedai aren't going to be sitting ducks forced to physically run away if they're outnumbered.

 

The problem with saying things like "Egwene has probably taught them all she learned" is that there is nothing to suggest she has.

How so? She's clearly raising many new AS, and has been shown to be doing this with regard to the Last Battle. Exactly why won't she share destructive weaves? Add to that, she also has inducted the ten captured Damane to be trained as AS. Adding yet another source of destructive weaves for the AS to draw on.

 

I'm not saying the AS learning these weaves is a guarantee. But there's some hints, at the very least, that they may have.

 

Oddly in the chapter as the one quoted above Egwene goes on to say...

 

TGS CH 41

"I was a burning warrior, a hero called by the horn. They won't dare face me again"

 

She sounds pretty confident here, which isn't good considering all they repelled was a raid and not a full out assult.

She said this when she was dead exhausted and about to collapse into sleep. See her thoughts later on when she's awake, and you can see that she's fully aware that they will indeed dare to face her again.

Those sisters who are left in the tower are undoubtably going to put up a good fight, but considering a portion of them will be at FOM, the attack is inanticipated, and they don't have as much combat experience as the damane, I'd gi ve this one to the Seanchan

What makes you think the Sisters won't open Gateways to FoM the moment they know there's an attack? And what makes you confident the basements aren't going to be warded against future sneak attacks?

[Aqua Weaver]

Seeing as Taim has been elevated to the rank of Chosen, what does this mean regarding Egwene's dream of the falling midnight towers? Does this mean the Forsaken are no longer the subject of the dream and the towers in question are the physical towers in Seanchan?

[Neophyte]

Seeing as Taim has been elevated to the rank of Chosen, what does this mean regarding Egwene's dream of the falling midnight towers? Does this mean the Forsaken are no longer the subject of the dream and the towers in question are the physical towers in Seanchan?

 

That's actually the best argument I can think of to suggest that his elevation to the rank of Chosen is a very new thing, since at the end six remain, and at the time she had the Dream, six Forsaken were alive and active (Moridin, Demandred, Graendal, Moghedien, Mesaana, and Cyndane/Lanfear). Of course, the Dream could have been predicting the future after Mesaana's fall, when there would be six remaining (Moridin, Demandred, M'hael, Graeffalump, Moghedien, and Cyndane/Lanfear). It depends on the timing of who was raised when, and what time period the Dream described. If it was a dream about who would still be standing for the Last Battle, then the second list including M'hael applies. If it was a Dream about the present, then the first list including Mesaana applies, and it would suggest that Taim had not yet been officially made Chosen.

 

Either way, though, it definitely seems to be a Dream about the Forsaken.

[Maleshub]

@Finowe 1987:

 

The Seanchan killed about 2 dozen Aes Sedai in addition to the 40 initiates captured (12 of them Aes Sedai). The Seanchan loses are in damane as they have plenty of Sul'dam. In the damane category, they lost 10 damane as prisoners and an estimated 10 more in downed Raken. Why only 10? Because the downed Raken have to be divided between captives, damane and suldam pairs, soldiers (the majority), and probably empty Raken with drivers only that were mounted by the dead and captured Seancha. So, I would guess that the most the Seanchan lost in the raid are 20 damane.

 

In light of those numbers, the WT is at -64 and the Seanchan are at +20 (+40, -20). The power shift is +84 in the Seanchan favor. That makes the raid very successful.

[muddasssir]

I don't know but for once I am in complete agreement with Fionwe and I have this question for boh theo and Fionwe how did you people came up with these numbers?

[Aqua Weaver]

Of course, the Dream could have been predicting the future after Mesaana's fall, when there would be six remaining (Moridin, Demandred, M'hael, Graeffalump, Moghedien, and Cyndane/Lanfear).

 

Either way, though, it definitely seems to be a Dream about the Forsaken.

 

Which then raises the question of who suffers a terrible fall only to rise up higher than the others? Moridin was originally the candidate for this, having fallen as Ishamael only to be risen up as Moridin. I have a feeling it could be Graendal as she went from being one of the most favoured Chosen, even having access to the true power, to being one of the least favoured with only Cyndane being below her.

 

Aqua

[Neophyte]

Of course, the Dream could have been predicting the future after Mesaana's fall, when there would be six remaining (Moridin, Demandred, M'hael, Graeffalump, Moghedien, and Cyndane/Lanfear).

 

Either way, though, it definitely seems to be a Dream about the Forsaken.

 

Which then raises the question of who suffers a terrible fall only to rise up higher than the others? Moridin was originally the candidate for this, having fallen as Ishamael only to be risen up as Moridin. I have a feeling it could be Graendal as she went from being one of the most favoured Chosen, even having access to the true power, to being one of the least favoured with only Cyndane being below her.

 

Aqua

 

I do interpret that as Moridin/Ishamael - he died (the tower crumbling) and then came back to rise above all the others (transmigrated and named Nae'blis).

[Icaruss]

Good responses, I still disagree though

 

So the Seanchan lost about forty of their fifty Sul'dam-damane pairs. In return, they got:

 

Your other quote says "over thirty raken blown from the air?" but it doesn't specify whether any damane were on those raken or whether those raken were only carrying troops. Seeing as how they had some 200 odd troops and raken were their only way of getting to the tower I doubt that every one of those 30 contained a damane.

 

Since the Tower "still burned" even with Egwene's help, and more raken escaped then fell, I'd say it was already a victory. Gaining traveling wasn't the purpose of the raid, and they didn't even seem to consider traveling until Elaida taught them it. They had already succeded, gaining traveling was just icing on the cake.

 

Nonetheless, that is their plan:

 

Lol point conceeded

 

Only three novices in Egwene's group of over sixty had died?

 

This doesn't account for those sisters and Novices on the other floors that Egwene couldn't protect which means casualties were most likely higher.

 

That is exactly what the Salidar sisters achieved with their plan to for many circles as soon as a Foresaken attacked. Looks like individual sisters were assigned circles to form, and Novices and Accepted were made part of these circles for added strength.

 

That chapter actually highlights some of the issues with linking

"Reflexively Nynaeve tried to pull back from the link, and nothing happened. Until Anaiya broke the circle she was part of it, and that was that,"

 

"It was not just her frustration; she thought it came from every woman in the circle, even the Aes Sedai. But all she could do was march along with the others, watch Anaiya weave the combination of their flows to battle a thousand small dangers,"

 

"Anaiya might have controlled the flows, but saidar had passed through Nynaeve for a good hour, enough to weary someone who had had a good night's sleeep."

 

Linking might be a good idea if an enemy is within sight but, had that bubble of evil been more vicious or even actually been one of the forsaken, any of those Aes Sedai could've been killed before they even knew what was happening since Anaiya was the only one who could weave. The other sister's who apart of the circle can't even leave it until the one in charge chooses to dissolve the link, and while it gives the one Aes Sedai a great boost in the power, the other sisters still feel extreme exhaustion once the link is gone.

 

But Egwene and the others know the Seanchan have Traveling now. As we've seen from Egwene's PoV in ToM, she fully expects a bigger attack.

 

Elayne knew there would be an invasion of Andor, but had no idea when or how, and look what happened. You're going to expect your enemies to attack you, because their your enemies, but that doesn't mean you'll be ready for any attack at any time.

 

I refer you to the numbers of the dead among those Egwene lead. The thing is, with circles, you don't need to know a variety of destructive weaves. Your defensive weaves can't be breached by any single damane, and you can't be shielded either, leaving you free to shield or attack them, or to simply disconnect the a'dam, at which point the damane will just bow down and stop fighting. Which is why the loss ratio was so skewed for Egwene's group vs. the Seanchan, even though there were many Novices.

 

The thing is, you don't have to attack the sister leading the circle, there are at most 12 other defenseless sisters you could pick up and toss with air or open up the earth under. Not to mention those archers and soldiers who if given a good vantage point and enough suprise could kill any of those 12 sisters. This would be even worse for those Novices unused to battle or reacting against something fast like an arrow.

 

As far as defending against a weave you don't know *shrug* how good is that defense gonna be if you have no idea what the enemy is doing.

 

Yes, but the Greens were asleep when the attack occurred, and not working together at all. I have no doubt the damane have practice destructive weaves better than AS. But as we've seen, that stops to matter against circles.

 

Why wouldn't it matter? even if the tower has 1000 channelers only those leading the circles will be of any effect, and depending on the range of the destruction those not leading the circles are at a high risk of being casualties.

 

But that won't be the case here. The majority of the AS are going to be in FoM, and all of them can Travel now, if they have the strength or a circle behind them. Unlike in the WT raid, the Aes Sedai aren't going to be sitting ducks forced to physically run away if they're outnumbered....

 

How so? She's clearly raising many new AS, and has been shown to be doing this with regard to the Last Battle. Exactly why won't she share destructive weaves? Add to that, she also has inducted the ten captured Damane to be trained as AS. Adding yet another source of destructive weaves for the AS to draw on.

 

I'm not saying the AS learning these weaves is a guarantee. But there's some hints, at the very least, that they may have

 

I still disagree that they've learned anything of substance, Egwene and Nynaeve have had plenty of chances teach the other Aes Sedai about their weaves since Salidar, and so far none of those teachings have been referenced. We've been shown them teaching others gateways, eavesdropping, and cuendillar, i doubt it would be that hard for her to at least reference teaching them those things.

 

She said this when she was dead exhausted and about to collapse into sleep. See her thoughts later on when she's awake, and you can see that she's fully aware that they will indeed dare to face her again.

 

What makes you think the Sisters won't open Gateways to FoM the moment they know there's an attack? And what makes you confident the basements aren't going to be warded against future sneak attacks?

 

She suspects they'll attack again, but she's currently taken an unknown amount of sisters (accepted and novices) to FOM, given that i'd expect them to be caught completely off gaurd if the attack happens while she's at FOM.

 

Nothing stops those sisters from traveling to FOM to notify Egwene, but then what? She'd already be put on the defensive, with no idea how many damane and troops are in the Tower, no idea how many could be captured or dead, and no idea if they found the 'angreal room and got passed its wards. Then there's also the fact that she promised Darlin (Tear) and Gregorin (Illian) sisters for gateways, if they were attacked (which we still aren't sure will happen or not).

 

As for the bolded part I never said I was confident the basement wouldn't be warded against future attacks, in fact I said it would be a waste to attack solely from the basement when they could also come from the roof or just about anywhere in the Tower or Tar Valon. However there's nothing to say the basement is warded.

 

I'm skeptical about Egwene planning because we really haven't been told that she's been doing that and if it turns out that she's completely prepared for this attack with something to counter everything Seanchan throw at her the battle would end up feeling completely contrived if not pointless.

[fionwe1987]

@Finowe 1987:

 

The Seanchan killed about 2 dozen Aes Sedai in addition to the 40 initiates captured (12 of them Aes Sedai). The Seanchan loses are in damane as they have plenty of Sul'dam. In the damane category, they lost 10 damane as prisoners and an estimated 10 more in downed Raken. Why only 10? Because the downed Raken have to be divided between captives, damane and suldam pairs, soldiers (the majority), and probably empty Raken with drivers only that were mounted by the dead and captured Seancha. So, I would guess that the most the Seanchan lost in the raid are 20 damane.

That's very nice, but it ignores that damane were also killed in the stairwells. Remember Egwene telling Adelorna its better and safer to kill the damane rather than trying to release them? Now consider that in Saerin's PoV, we see that all the forces in the Tower (ie those that were off the raken) were disengaging everywhere and focusing on the 22nd level. And among those fighting in the 22nd level, only 3 Novices and one AS died. Which means they captured 10 Damane (two of those were released by Egwene herself on screen). But how many did they kill?

 

And we also know that the to'raken all had a sul'dam damane pair initially. The raken did not. The moment Egwene started blasting raken and to'raken from the air (and hence reducing the prisoners being taken away), the Seanchan would immediately have sent to'raken with damane to attack her. These were the ones we're told she was battling. What I'm saying is that the moment Egwene's goals become clear, the only tactically sensible thing for the Seanchan to do is to send all the damne bearing raken against her, so that the captives can be taken away, since their sole purpose was to capture someone who knew Traveling. So, the number of air-borne damane she brought down is likely to be more not less.

 

You're right the Tower, on the whole, lost more people than the Seanchan. But that wasn't my point. My point was that the Seanchan did not capture more fresh damane than they lost in the raid. Not that it mattered to them, so far as labeling this a success goes. The count has no relevance to that. But it does have relevance to total number of damane available to the Seanchan, which had a mild dent put on it by Egwene's actions in the raid.

In light of those numbers, the WT is at -64 and the Seanchan are at +20 (+40, -20). The power shift is +84 in the Seanchan favor. That makes the raid very successful.

No one is questioning the raid's success. The question is how many damane the Seanchan lost in total, taking into account the 40 new ones they got.

 

I don't know but for once I am in complete agreement with Fionwe and I have this question for boh theo and Fionwe how did you people came up with these numbers?

I quoted all the places from the text where the numbers were mentioned.

 

Which then raises the question of who suffers a terrible fall only to rise up higher than the others? Moridin was originally the candidate for this, having fallen as Ishamael only to be risen up as Moridin. I have a feeling it could be Graendal as she went from being one of the most favoured Chosen, even having access to the true power, to being one of the least favoured with only Cyndane being below her.

 

Aqua

Or it could be Cyndane herself. Remember that she has indeed had the greatest fall. But she also has the potential to rise highest, with her skills in TAR, her knowledge of the nature of the Bore, her knowledge of Rand, etc.

[fionwe1987]

Good responses, I still disagree though

 

Your other quote says "over thirty raken blown from the air?" but it doesn't specify whether any damane were on those raken or whether those raken were only carrying troops. Seeing as how they had some 200 odd troops and raken were their only way of getting to the tower I doubt that every one of those 30 contained a damane.

See above for an explanation for that.

Since the Tower "still burned" even with Egwene's help, and more raken escaped then fell, I'd say it was already a victory. Gaining traveling wasn't the purpose of the raid, and they didn't even seem to consider traveling until Elaida taught them it. They had already succeded, gaining traveling was just icing on the cake.

Okay, do me a favor, and actually go read the chapters where the attack is planned. Gaining at least one woman who can Travel, and one who can show them the "destructive weave" Elayne used in tPoD were the two major motives of the raid. The point was to neutralize the advantage of the WT with respect to Traveling and destructive weaves. If you don't even know this, then I fail to see how your contribution to this discussion matters.

 

Lol point conceeded

 

 

This doesn't account for those sisters and Novices on the other floors that Egwene couldn't protect which means casualties were most likely higher.

This matter, how? We weren't talking about casualties of the WT, we were talking about whether the raid in any way dented the number of damane. A dead Aes Sedai is not a new damane, ergo, she cannot make up for a dead or captive damane. Only a captive AS or Accepted can make up for a dead or captive damane.

That chapter actually highlights some of the issues with linking

Sorry, all you're revealing is your lack of knowledge of OP mechanics.

 

Linking might be a good idea if an enemy is within sight but, had that bubble of evil been more vicious or even actually been one of the forsaken, any of those Aes Sedai could've been killed before they even knew what was happening since Anaiya was the only one who could weave.

And any such attack that came against those members of Anaiya's circle... she would just ignore those attacks because she's a moron, right?

The other sister's who apart of the circle can't even leave it until the one in charge chooses to dissolve the link, and while it gives the one Aes Sedai a great boost in the power, the other sisters still feel extreme exhaustion once the link is gone.

And? If, instead, each of those sisters wove separately, they'd feel just as exhausted, but the combined effect of their individual weaving would be less than that of a circle with the same people. Do go read RJ's statements on the increased precision and effectiveness of circles, that should help a lot in this discussion.

Elayne knew there would be an invasion of Andor,

I'm sorry, are a country and a city the same thing now? Egwene has a much smaller area to deal with. And that area is under constant contact with the AS encampment in Merrillor as was emphasized again in the Prologue. There aren't four women barely strong enough to Travel. There are many more, all constantly Traveling back and forth between the Tower and FOM. From Sleete's words, its also clear that people entering and exiting the Tower are being monitored, and such information is being shared between the Warders in FoM and the Tower Guard/Warders in the Tower.

but had no idea when or how, and look what happened. You're going to expect your enemies to attack you, because their your enemies, but that doesn't mean you'll be ready for any attack at any time.

When you know they have Traveling? The hallmark of battle with Traveling is that you won't have any sign that the enemy is approaching. Egwene used that very fact to surprise the WT and effectively besiege them before giving them any time to prepare for it. If you think Bryne and she are idiots and haven't considered the Seanchan would do the same, you're welcome to that opinion, but it isn't supported by the text.

The thing is, you don't have to attack the sister leading the circle, there are at most 12 other defenseless sisters you could pick up and toss with air or open up the earth under.

Why are they defenseless? What prevents the circle leader from creating wards around all 13 of them? I'm interested to know your reasoning here? Why would the circle leader, fully aware of the danger of her sisters, not stop those weaves of Air and Earth with her much stronger abilities? Not even the strongest damane can send anything a random circle of 13 can't overmatch. And even if 13 damane attack at once, the circle would still have the advantage as we saw when 8 windfinders in a circle confronted 8 Black sisters unlinked.

Not to mention those archers and soldiers who if given a good vantage point and enough suprise could kill any of those 12 sisters. This would be even worse for those Novices unused to battle or reacting against something fast like an arrow.

Again, weaves of Air to protect from all incoming projectiles are child's play to Aes Sedai, and can be woven around all members of a circle.

 

As far as defending against a weave you don't know *shrug* how good is that defense gonna be if you have no idea what the enemy is doing.

?? Go read the countless instances of channelers cutting weaves they have no idea of the function of, or cannot even see in some cases.

 

Why wouldn't it matter? even if the tower has 1000 channelers only those leading the circles will be of any effect, and depending on the range of the destruction those not leading the circles are at a high risk of being casualties.

Range of what destruction? The damane's? The range of any destruction a circle can manage is far far above what any single channeler can manage.

I still disagree that they've learned anything of substance, Egwene and Nynaeve have had plenty of chances teach the other Aes Sedai about their weaves since Salidar, and so far none of those teachings have been referenced. We've been shown them teaching others gateways, eavesdropping, and cuendillar, i doubt it would be that hard for her to at least reference teaching them those things.

No one referenced them teaching the AS to hide their ability and invert their weaves. Yet, other Aes Sedai have shown these abilities. Magic?

She suspects they'll attack again, but she's currently taken an unknown amount of sisters (accepted and novices) to FOM, given that i'd expect them to be caught completely off gaurd if the attack happens while she's at FOM.

Why? If your fortress is attacked when the bulk of your army is away (and your enemies didn't know this coming in), and you have the ability to quickly get back to your fortress, and because of larger gateways, can concentrate your forces much more quickly than the Seanchan can, why would you be "off guard". For god's sake, the enemy gave you the chance to set up a remote command center from where you can coordinate a massive counterattack. That's an amazing advantage, not something to fret over!

Nothing stops those sisters from traveling to FOM to notify Egwene, but then what? She'd already be put on the defensive, with no idea how many damane and troops are in the Tower, no idea how many could be captured or dead, and no idea if they found the 'angreal room and got passed its wards.

You may be unaware of this, but wards can be set to give warning to people far far away if they're breached. And knowing the exact number of dead or captive is hardly a special disadvantage. Nobody knows those things during a battle. And they're meaningless when you can scout out any location with Traveling.

 

Then there's also the fact that she promised Darlin (Tear) and Gregorin (Illian) sisters for gateways, if they were attacked (which we still aren't sure will happen or not).

So? She needs just one single Gateway made by 13 sisters to handle either of their requests. Once again, she has a massive advantage due to circles.

 

Not to mention, Darlin and Gregorin would be fools to let the Tower fall. That's the only place that can supply them with Traveling and channelers against the Seanchan.

 

And I see no evidence for the Seanchan to be stupid enough to start battles at three fronts at the same time.

As for the bolded part I never said I was confident the basement wouldn't be warded against future attacks, in fact I said it would be a waste to attack solely from the basement when they could also come from the roof or just about anywhere in the Tower or Tar Valon. However there's nothing to say the basement is warded.

Waste or not, that is what the Seanchan plan. One reason might be that in an unwatched basement, you can open Gateways and transport soldiers without interference from the AS, which won't be the case elsewhere in the Tower. Of course, this is true only if the basements are not warded.

I'm skeptical about Egwene planning because we really haven't been told that she's been doing that and if it turns out that she's completely prepared for this attack with something to counter everything Seanchan throw at her the battle would end up feeling completely contrived if not pointless.

We've not been told a lot of what Egwene and Rand were doing in ToM. We didn't see anything about Egwene's plan for her meeting with the rulers of the world either. Should we assume she doesn't have one?

 

And we have seen Bryn's plans to defend Tar Valon and the Tower. Add to that Egwene's plans for the LB, and her shoring up support with the WO and the Sea Folk against the Seanchan, and short of an exact battle plan from Egwene to ruin the suspense, I don't see what else Brandon could have done to communicate that she's readying for war.