Olver, Elayne, and Caemlyn

[RandA lThor]

In the end of AMoL, Olver opens the letter from Verin and Talmanes finds out that Caemlyn is under attack. Then Olver picks up a knife and goes out to fight against the Trollocs, even though he saw his parents die to Shaido in Cairhein. I think that this is important and that Olver will play an important role in Caemlyn's defense (either good or bad, most likely good). I don't have too many theories on how this will happen, so knock yourselves out. Also, since Elayne was also told of this by the Black Ajah, will she also have prepared something. Anyways, discuss.

[Barid Bel Medar]

just a quick note: end of ToM.

 

Anyway, I think Olver will not actually do anything important himself, but be important for Mat, like him dying, or Mat needing to rescue him, like in aCoS. I suppose he might save Mat or someone important by sneaking around and being dismissed as a child.

 

Elayne didn't know about it. She only heard about an "invasion", not saying where or when or why or how. She doesn't look like she has made any plans, most of her forces are at the FoM and went with her to Cairhien.

 

Having said that, one would think that when you have Black Ajah members stationed in Caemlyn talking about the invasion being near, you would kinda guess it meant Caemlyn. Or at least you would be cautious and prepare. To be fair, I am not even sure if Elayne knows about the Waygate, and if she does, Rand thought he had it secured. So she could be thinking that they would know about any large force before it got within reach of the city.

 

Also, she may not think it is important enough. Compared to Rand and the breaking of the Seals/re-Sealing, Caemlyn is not really important, so in that respect, she could be focused on winning the LB, rather than defending her capital. Also, with her being so used to Travelling, it wouldn't be like leaving the city defenceless in her mind.

[condonmc]

If only Mat had read that damn letter...........

[kght22]

just a quick note: end of ToM.

 

Anyway, I think Olver will not actually do anything important himself, but be important for Mat, like him dying, or Mat needing to rescue him, like in aCoS. I suppose he might save Mat or someone important by sneaking around and being dismissed as a child.

 

Elayne didn't know about it. She only heard about an "invasion", not saying where or when or why or how. She doesn't look like she has made any plans, most of her forces are at the FoM and went with her to Cairhien.

 

Having said that, one would think that when you have Black Ajah members stationed in Caemlyn talking about the invasion being near, you would kinda guess it meant Caemlyn. Or at least you would be cautious and prepare. To be fair, I am not even sure if Elayne knows about the Waygate, and if she does, Rand thought he had it secured. So she could be thinking that they would know about any large force before it got within reach of the city.

 

Also, she may not think it is important enough. Compared to Rand and the breaking of the Seals/re-Sealing, Caemlyn is not really important, so in that respect, she could be focused on winning the LB, rather than defending her capital. Also, with her being so used to Travelling, it wouldn't be like leaving the city defenceless in her mind.

you gave the note about the name of the book, i'll give a note or two for you as well. to start with only a select few went with her to cairhien, primarily "natives" of the nation, and that is not the quote by any means, simply what she brought with her when she took the throne to the east.

 

she also put guards on the way gate in place of the guards that rand had left there. the gate may be be trapped, but that doesn't stop people (or creatures) from passing through it. and we know that even without the leaf even moir alone could cut a hole out (with an angreal).and i doubt any world leader left to tfom without leaving a large force in their capital city and/or any other place they thought was vulnerable.

[rand4747]

If only Mat had read that damn letter...........

 

 

Mat was told that the world depended on his decision, weighing 2 aes sedai, likely one was Moiraine and the other was Verin, if he read the letter and tried to save Caemlyn they will lose the last battle, and saving Moiraine there is at least a chance of winning, not guaranteed though. He didn't know the results though or even what it was about just that there is a choice between 2 aes sedai and the fate of the world depended on it.

[TristanWebb]

Was Mat told that or did Egwene just dream it?

[Barid Bel Medar]

you gave the note about the name of the book, i'll give a note or two for you as well. to start with only a select few went with her to cairhien, primarily "natives" of the nation, and that is not the quote by any means, simply what she brought with her when she took the throne to the east.

 

she also put guards on the way gate in place of the guards that rand had left there. the gate may be be trapped, but that doesn't stop people (or creatures) from passing through it. and we know that even without the leaf even moir alone could cut a hole out (with an angreal).and i doubt any world leader left to tfom without leaving a large force in their capital city and/or any other place they thought was vulnerable.

 

Yeah, should have phrased that better. She didn't initially take her forces when she went to Cairhien, but she did bring the majority of Andorians, and a lot of the Band as well as the Cairhienin with her to the FoM.

 

She did not leave many people in either Cairhien or Caemlyn.

 

Towers of Midnight: Chapter 52: Boots

 

"Gather your individual forces and House guards," she commanded to the collected nobles. "You will be marching with the forces of Andor, through gateways to a place known as the Field of Merrilor. We will be meeting with the Dragon Reborn."

 

............

 

"I want you to gather every man in this realm who can hold a sword and conscript them into the Queen's army. There won't be much time for training, but every man will be needed in the Last Battle..."

 

Unless she is for some reason being racist against the Cairhien and holding back with her own people (indeed, it would be the other way round, she would want Andor to have the largest force possible) there is not many left.

 

 

@BenevolentCow Mat didn't know anything about Egwene's dream, and she hasn't told Mat as of ToM. I think he did the right thing, and it was perhaps best that he didn't open the letter. Even if he could have done both, I think he would be in terrible danger in Caemlyn.

 

 

In another a woman, face shrouded in shadow, beckoned him toward great danger; Egwene did not know what, only that it was monstrous." (Egwene's Dream; LoC, Ch. 15).

 

I think this is Verin, first of with her face hidden by the s(S)hadow and the letter, trying to play on his curiosity "beckoning" him towards danger. And Verin, when she was actually talking to him, wanted him not to open the letter, he reacted totally opposite to how the letter expected, and Verin certainly should know Mat better than that, she is not prone to mistakes like that.

 

So basically, Caemlyn will be a mess, I expect something more than just Trollocs and Myrddraal in the invasion force, or at least there will be vast numbers. It will take Rand, Aes Sedai and the Light faction of the Black Tower to push the invasion back, I think. So Mat would most likely have died, if he had stayed in Caemlyn, I don't think they would have been able to destroy the Waygate in time, Elayne, as far as I know, doesn't know how, and no Ogier are on hand to destroy it.

[FarShainMael]

We don't know if Olver actually saw his parents die. He told Mat (LoC5) that the Shaido killed his father and his mother died of illness.

 

With that in mind, I had a go at this here:

 

http://www.dragonmount.com/forums/topic/59546-caemlyn-battle/

[TristanWebb]

Maybe he didn't see his father die, but he buried his mother under some flowers, so he saw her dead atleast and would probably have been by her side as she died.

[Barid Bel Medar]

Maybe he didn't see his father die, but he buried his mother under some flowers, so he saw her dead atleast and would probably have been by her side as she died.

 

I am not sure what you are trying to say with this? She died of illness, not killed by Shaido.

[FarShainMael]

The point is, this isn't quite right:

 

..Olver picks up a knife and goes out to fight against the Trollocs, even though he saw his parents die to Shaido in Cairhein.

 

(emphasis mine)

[TristanWebb]

The point is, this isn't quite right:

 

..Olver picks up a knife and goes out to fight against the Trollocs, even though he saw his parents die to Shaido in Cairhein.

 

(emphasis mine)

Sorry, was being pedantic and missed the point I guess.

[FarShainMael]

The point is, this isn't quite right:

 

..Olver picks up a knife and goes out to fight against the Trollocs, even though he saw his parents die to Shaido in Cairhein.

 

(emphasis mine)

Sorry, was being pedantic and missed the point I guess.

 

 

No prob. I picked up on it because my theory in that thread rather depends on Olver not being certain who killed his dad..

[Barid Bel Medar]

No prob. I picked up on it because my theory in that thread rather depends on Olver not being certain who killed his dad..

 

Just as an aside, Olver could just be compelled into thinking it by a dreadlord or Forsaken. Graendal would be a likely candidate, she wouldn't want to make his actions suspicious and put him under full compulsion, Mat would know, but a little bit of Compulsion to make him think he killed he was part of the Shaido attack? Mat did come back with Rand and Aiel....

 

(I am not convinced of the theory, but I like pointing out the possibilities )

[FarShainMael]

Yeah, they're nice possibilities..

 

Must.. be.. careful.. not.. to.. derail.. thread...........

[Mr Ares]

Elayne didn't know about it. She only heard about an "invasion", not saying where or when or why or how. She doesn't look like she has made any plans, most of her forces are at the FoM and went with her to Cairhien.

 

Having said that, one would think that when you have Black Ajah members stationed in Caemlyn talking about the invasion being near, you would kinda guess it meant Caemlyn. Or at least you would be cautious and prepare. To be fair, I am not even sure if Elayne knows about the Waygate, and if she does, Rand thought he had it secured. So she could be thinking that they would know about any large force before it got within reach of the city.

It was noted that she had beefed up border defences.

 

If only Mat had read that damn letter...........

 

Mat was told that the world depended on his decision, weighing 2 aes sedai, likely one was Moiraine and the other was Verin, if he read the letter and tried to save Caemlyn they will lose the last battle, and saving Moiraine there is at least a chance of winning, not guaranteed though. He didn't know the results though or even what it was about just that there is a choice between 2 aes sedai and the fate of the world depended on it.

I'm not convinced. Given what we know, the contents of the letter needn't have interfered with his rescue of Moiraine at all. Also, Mat didn't really have any reason to think that opening the letter would prevent him rescuing her. Thus it was never truly a question of weighing Moiraine against Verin, so I don't think that it constitues fulfillment of that Viewing.

[Barid Bel Medar]

It was noted that she had beefed up border defences.

 

I'm not convinced. Given what we know, the contents of the letter needn't have interfered with his rescue of Moiraine at all. Also, Mat didn't really have any reason to think that opening the letter would prevent him rescuing her. Thus it was never truly a question of weighing Moiraine against Verin, so I don't think that it constitues fulfillment of that Viewing.

 

1. Ah, yeah, I thought so, so her border forces are most likely the strongest left, nobody much is left in Caemlyn, and reasonably so. For all intents and purposes, Elayne can be confident about the safety of Caemlyn, with Gateways, she can get back in a matter of hours after enemies are sighted. There is no reason why, when the Waygate is guarded, why she should be worried about it. The Shadow's plan obviously involves something to break Waygate defences, which wouldn't really be her top priority or necessarily even be thought of. When you guard something, you usually consider it pretty safe, or you would do something more to ensure sufficient safety, so she thinks it is cared for. Unfortunately for her, it is not.

 

2. I agree, I wasn't convinced that the Dream was fulfilled here. The other Dream I mentioned I think is more likely Verin, but yeah, there was never a debate over the letter or Moiraine, even if he had opened the letter, there would not be a need to choose one over the other. IN any case, that is moot, he didn't open the letter, thus, there was no decision. The letter was not compared to Moiraine, since he didn't know Verin's request. I would like to see how it turns out, if it has not come to pass.

[A Rant Lord]

I hope they will do nothing to defend Caemlynn and hold off Talmanes from rushing to the defence. Why not just let the shadowspawn have Caemlynn? They cannot travel and the ways (although faster) takes time. I'd say rush everything you got to the blight and strike.

[gloweye]

There are million civilians in caemlyn, including the refugees. Maybe she conscripted about 300K of these - what would be insanely high - and you stil have 700K people you just leave for trolloc food.

 

you've clearly been channeling to much saidin preWH.

[Suttree]

I hope they will do nothing to defend Caemlynn and hold off Talmanes from rushing to the defence. Why not just let the shadowspawn have Caemlynn?

 

Ermm what? Why not let the shadowspawn have one of the greatest countries in Randland? Do you really need an answer to that?

 

As for the second part about rushing everyone to the blight. That almost certainly is not how this battle will be won.

[Barid Bel Medar]

There are million civilians in caemlyn, including the refugees. Maybe she conscripted about 300K of these - what would be insanely high - and you stil have 700K people you just leave for trolloc food.

 

Millions? I think you may be slightly mistaken.

 

INTERVIEW: Aug 25th, 1996

ACOS Signing Report - Greebs (Paraphrased)

 

GREEBS

Cool. We [Notice that I'm trying to create the impression that there is more than just me there ...safety in numbers etc.] were also wondering about the size of the cities...how big is Caemlyn for instance?

 

ROBERT JORDAN

[Thinking] Let's see...Well Tar Valon is 500,000 people and cities like Caemlyn and Tear are around 300,000 or so. I've envisioned a seventeenth century society and you've got to remember that for those times 300,000 would be huge.

 

With refugees, you probably get around 500k all up.

 

About 1/4 would be children and the old, sick, lame or otherwise incapable of service.

 

Another 1/4 would be normal citizens, who have little to no experience in fighting, let alone fighting Shadowspawn.

 

1/4 would be conscripted with sufficient arms and armour, but not professional soldiers.

 

The final 1/4 would be the soldiers.

 

I will have a go at giving an overview of the whole situation.

 

She would have taken a fair portion of the soldiers and conscripts. Conservatively, I would say 2/5ths of the total population. Although I would think more than half, but going from the lower number, most would be old, young or unfit, with the merchants and the like, with a token force in defence to stop rebellion and such. Most of the defence would have gone to the borders to watch for invasion as Mr Ares noted.

 

So, I would say there would be more like 200k left.

 

Including the Band I would say fighting wise, there would be about 30-50k in good condition to fight, but only 10-20k would be sufficiently armed for any real resistance against Shadowspawn.

 

It is small force, even if there were 50k soldiers. This Shadowspawn invasion is huge, Verin calls it "an enormous force" and fears that if Elayne doesn't bring her "full forces to bare", Caemlyn is doomed, and probably still would be even then. I would say there would be at least 200k in the Shadowspawn army. That is Shadowspawn, twice as big and strong as a normal man, along with DF's, possibly some Dreadlords and even a Forsaken thrown in there, along with some nasty Shadowspawn besides Trollocs and Myrddraal (I think so anyway)

 

Caemlyn is pretty screwed at this point.

 

I think you have to be fair to Elayne though. Not her fault, really. The Waygate is thought to be secured. She doesn't expect a huge force to turn up in a Caemlyn cellar. I mean, only 2 or three could go through at one time, surely you would only need a few hundred men to hold anything back long enough? Besides, they would have taken out one of the leaves, and most likely have it warded. The Borderlands are overrun, the most logical place would be an attack from the North. I mean, how many shadowspawn can there possibly be anyway? Besides, she is not really leaving it radically undefended. She can Travel back in seconds if there is anything up.

 

It is a rational thing to think. Unfortunately, the Shadow doesn't conform to the usual rationale. The Waygate is not secure. Dreadlords or Forsaken will likely just smash the Waygate to pieces, ripping a hole through anyone near it, so that a bunch of Shadowspawn would have time to form up and protect the Waygate so that the defenders cannot use the Waygate as a choke-hold. The Shadowspawn available is far, far more than I think anyone in the books could contemplate. I mean, before the EotW, 5000 was a decent army. It is hard to adjust your thinking, millions of Shadowspawn is unthinkable, major cities only hold 300k, and most of the land is unoccupied, and how could you fit all those Trollocs in the Blight? Well, unlike people, Trollocs do not need a house of their own and no "human rights" apply to them. The Shadow would not be too concerned of overpopulation. Trollocs eat almost anything, Myrddraal, well, I haven't even seen one eat, or mention eating, so who knows about them. You could fit millions in the Blight itself and Brandon said that the Blight could not sustain the number of Shadowspawn the DO has. Needless to say, 200k is not too hard to come up with for the Shadow. And if there was an attack, Elayne would have the walls and cannons to defend the city. Unfortunately, the Shadowspawn have direct access to the Inner City, street by street fighting is far harder than defending from walls. When Elayne gets back, the Shadowspawn would be in control of the majority of the city, she would have to root them out, so the streets would not work to her advantage either.

 

Besides, the Black Tower is led by a Dreadlord, so no help from that quarter, in fact, the complete opposite, Taim will probably supply the Shadow with support.

 

It is in fact better that Elayne is at the FoM. When she learns of the attack, she can call on the combined armies of the Light and the White Tower to at least provide a bunch of gateways. It will certainly take a large force to win Caemlyn back, against Shadowspawn and Dreadlords, normal soldiers are only half as effective, they would need a large number of Channelers to help out. But they cannot throw their full forces against the Shadowspawn in Caemlyn. Kandor and Arafel have fallen to Shadowspawn armies, Saldaea would be screwed if a pair of child Trollocs invaded, only Sheinar, thanks to Lan and his people can put up much resistance, and not for long, I would say. Plus the likelyhood of other similar Shadowspawn invasions of other cities, they have seen a fair number of Trollocs near Ebou Dar, and I would say Murandy would be a good place to set up as a checkpoint not talking about Demandred=Roederan, it would be a good place to hold, as it is in the middle of all of the major nations. They would have to help out all of these places as well, and that isn't including the Seanchan attack on the Tower.

 

In Conclusion: Caemlyn is screwed. It will take Rand, Mat, Perrin together, along with Egwene and Elayne and a large portion of their armies to take back.

 

I

[FarShainMael]

Where are this incursion into Caemlyn and the gathering at FoM in the timeline?

[Vardar]

I think you have to be fair to Elayne though. Not her fault, really. The Waygate is thought to be secured. She doesn't expect a huge force to turn up in a Caemlyn cellar. I mean, only 2 or three could go through at one time, surely you would only need a few hundred men to hold anything back long enough? Besides, they would have taken out one of the leaves, and most likely have it warded. The Borderlands are overrun, the most logical place would be an attack from the North. I mean, how many shadowspawn can there possibly be anyway? Besides, she is not really leaving it radically undefended. She can Travel back in seconds if there is anything up.

 

We're told time and time again, that the shadow has to move small armies through waygates because it attracts the Black Wind. So how large of an army can the Shadow move to Calemyn in a basement? That's what always got me about that. It's not like they can hang out inside the city. It can be much more than a few hundred Trollocs. I mean they were moving them in groups of 50 or so thru the ways, and if I recall correctly, that basement couldnt hold more than a few dozen. So where are all these trollocs hanging out waiting to attack?

[Vardar]

It is in fact better that Elayne is at the FoM. When she learns of the attack, she can call on the combined armies of the Light and the White Tower to at least provide a bunch of gateways. It will certainly take a large force to win Caemlyn back, against Shadowspawn and Dreadlords, normal soldiers are only half as effective, they would need a large number of Channelers to help out. But they cannot throw their full forces against the Shadowspawn in Caemlyn. Kandor and Arafel have fallen to Shadowspawn armies, Saldaea would be screwed if a pair of child Trollocs invaded, only Sheinar, thanks to Lan and his people can put up much resistance, and not for long, I would say. Plus the likelyhood of other similar Shadowspawn invasions of other cities, they have seen a fair number of Trollocs near Ebou Dar, and I would say Murandy would be a good place to set up as a checkpoint not talking about Demandred=Roederan, it would be a good place to hold, as it is in the middle of all of the major nations. They would have to help out all of these places as well, and that isn't including the Seanchan attack on the Tower.

 

Wait, Kandor and Arafel fell? When did this happen?

[kght22]

you gave the note about the name of the book, i'll give a note or two for you as well. to start with only a select few went with her to cairhien, primarily "natives" of the nation, and that is not the quote by any means, simply what she brought with her when she took the throne to the east.

 

she also put guards on the way gate in place of the guards that rand had left there. the gate may be be trapped, but that doesn't stop people (or creatures) from passing through it. and we know that even without the leaf even moir alone could cut a hole out (with an angreal).and i doubt any world leader left to tfom without leaving a large force in their capital city and/or any other place they thought was vulnerable.

 

Yeah, should have phrased that better. She didn't initially take her forces when she went to Cairhien, but she did bring the majority of Andorians, and a lot of the Band as well as the Cairhienin with her to the FoM.

 

She did not leave many people in either Cairhien or Caemlyn.

 

Towers of Midnight: Chapter 52: Boots

 

"Gather your individual forces and House guards," she commanded to the collected nobles. "You will be marching with the forces of Andor, through gateways to a place known as the Field of Merrilor. We will be meeting with the Dragon Reborn."

 

............

 

"I want you to gather every man in this realm who can hold a sword and conscript them into the Queen's army. There won't be much time for training, but every man will be needed in the Last Battle..."

 

Unless she is for some reason being racist against the Cairhien and holding back with her own people (indeed, it would be the other way round, she would want Andor to have the largest force possible) there is not many left.

 

 

@BenevolentCow Mat didn't know anything about Egwene's dream, and she hasn't told Mat as of ToM. I think he did the right thing, and it was perhaps best that he didn't open the letter. Even if he could have done both, I think he would be in terrible danger in Caemlyn.

 

 

In another a woman, face shrouded in shadow, beckoned him toward great danger; Egwene did not know what, only that it was monstrous." (Egwene's Dream; LoC, Ch. 15).

 

I think this is Verin, first of with her face hidden by the s(S)hadow and the letter, trying to play on his curiosity "beckoning" him towards danger. And Verin, when she was actually talking to him, wanted him not to open the letter, he reacted totally opposite to how the letter expected, and Verin certainly should know Mat better than that, she is not prone to mistakes like that.

 

So basically, Caemlyn will be a mess, I expect something more than just Trollocs and Myrddraal in the invasion force, or at least there will be vast numbers. It will take Rand, Aes Sedai and the Light faction of the Black Tower to push the invasion back, I think. So Mat would most likely have died, if he had stayed in Caemlyn, I don't think they would have been able to destroy the Waygate in time, Elayne, as far as I know, doesn't know how, and no Ogier are on hand to destroy it.

large force doesnt mean the majority, or even a quarter, sorry i didn't make that clear. by large force i mean a few thousand, maybe only a couple thousand. yah she took most of her armies to the field, but she would have left a "large" force in caemlyn, and likely cairhein as well, but by randland numbers even a thousand is a large force, (hell by real world numbers a thousand is a large force) and i bet there are at least 2 thousand of the guard left in cairhein, and probably another 2 thousand or so of the band. maybe a bit less of the band than 2, it was pretty big, but 2 thousand would still be like 5% of the band.

but sorry i didnt clarify what i meant by a large force. it still wont be enough to directly confront a full on assault from an invader. it would be enough to ensure that it would have to be a full on assault though, not a raid. by simple military strategy if you have to leave a place vulnerable you will leave enough defenders to make an enemy have to fully invest in taking it, so that they cant spread their forces and take even more in one shot.